***BCS Championship Weiner***

[BigWeiner]

Wasn't gonna play this, because I felt like it was a sucker play, but damn it I just don't see how Auburn doesn't win this game.

NCAA
270 Auburn -2.5

I like Arkansas tomorrow as well

Good luck everybody

[kbsooner21]

Good luck buddy! I lean same way on both!

[ravenmaniac]

This game is really really hard to handicap. Before tonight I was leaning toward Auburn laying 2' points. After watching Stanford I am not so sure. Stanford is a very, very good team on both sides of the ball. I have watched quite a few of their games and Andrew Luck is the best looking QB I have seen come out since maybe John Elway and Jim Harbaugh can coach. Had the Oregon/Stanford game been played at Stanford I really think they would be playing Auburn next Monday. The point to all this is Oregon ripped Stanford a new one when they played. I am not sure if Auburn is going to be able to keep up with them. This is basically a coin-flip game to me.

[BigWeiner]

This game is really really hard to handicap. Before tonight I was leaning toward Auburn laying 2' points. After watching Stanford I am not so sure. Stanford is a very, very good team on both sides of the ball. I have watched quite a few of their games and Andrew Luck is the best looking QB I have seen come out since maybe John Elway and Jim Harbaugh can coach. Had the Oregon/Stanford game been played at Stanford I really think they would be playing Auburn next Monday. The point to all this is Oregon ripped Stanford a new one when they played. I am not sure if Auburn is going to be able to keep up with them. This is basically a coin-flip game to me.

I see where you're coming from, it's tough when teams don't play like opponents. I don't think Oregon's D can hold Auburn and I actually think Auburn's D could stop Oregon. Two games stick out in my head, Oregon barely beating Cal on the road, and Auburn barely beating Alabama on the road. The later was really impressive.

[bryce]

I think auburn wins by at least one td. They are not at home(Oregon) And bw is right Calofornia is looming large in my head... Bama vs Auburn is a huge rivalry... See what bama did to mich st... Jmo... Don't kill me!

[BigWeiner]

I think auburn wins by at least one td. They are not at home(Oregon) And bw is right Calofornia is looming large in my head... Bama vs Auburn is a huge rivalry... See what bama did to mich st... Jmo... Don't kill me!

Yea that's what I'm thinking as well. Feels like I sucker play, but I guess we'll see.

[bryce]

Yea that's what I'm thinking as well. Feels like I sucker play, but I guess we'll see.

IMO sharps have bet this down to 2.5 so we shall see who is sharp at this point. I don't know why this has come down but I swear I can't see the public betting this down to 2.5... I just don't. I have been wrong a lot of times but I would think public money would of been on the Tigers... I don't look at percentages of public money or whatever but I seriously thought the public would of drove this up to 3.5.. He'll I don't know.. Someone who does know...straighten me out! Sharp money usually comes in early or late so I am clueless or just don't have a handle on this one.

[bryce]

Bw

Need Arkansas tomorrow as well

[BigWeiner]

IMO sharps have bet this down to 2.5 so we shall see who is sharp at this point. I don't know why this has come down but I swear I can't see the public betting this down to 2.5... I just don't. I have been wrong a lot of times but I would think public money would of been on the Tigers... I don't look at percentages of public money or whatever but I seriously thought the public would of drove this up to 3.5.. He'll I don't know.. Someone who does know...straighten me out! Sharp money usually comes in early or late so I am clueless or just don't have a handle on this one.

Again, same with me, I thought the line would jump to 3.5 right off the bat, but when it settled in at 2.5, I was like what the hell.

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, BW!

[vinnyvegas]

BW, going to throw out some late night thoughts if you don't mind. More to see another POV & solidify your pick one way or the other. Others can step in if they want. I respect all thoughts, ideas & ways people try to gain an edge in making their wagers. There is no golden goose.

I see a few things occurring w/ this game. Biggest is most people haven't really watched Oregon play this year (West Coast teams less exposure) & a lot of betting is naturally going to Auburn due to Heisman winner & the SEC pub all year of the best team to come out of conf. Some may argue that Ore sure did get exposure w/ their O but I'd say no where near what the SEC & media/ESPN churns out for SEC teams. Toss in the fiasco of Cam the Sham getting a complete BS bye on his shenanigans w/ his father & getting money to attend his highest suitor (everyone should take note & funnel payments through the church/pastor to get a pass) & Aub is clearly the pub team.

As for the line dropping, I think smart $ hit Oregon fast. IMO, Pub has caught up but again IMO. Vegas has this set up perfectly. You will have & have already had bettors taking sides & again IMO they will not sit on +2.5 & take to 3 - the 1/2 to gain that edge they feel they may need for a win/push. Vegas LOVES JUICING both sides (-3 bettors bought to -2.5).

As for the game & references to how one did vs a conf opp, it's a very minor item in capping this particular game, again IMO. They are both similar in the style of O they run & on D side most would say Auburn clearly better but I'd argue it's an SEC bias due to media/hype but more from SEC dominance & little respect for PAC 10 teams. The SEC white wash Saturday will push many to Auburn simply due to those wins. HOWEVER, unless you know the PAC 10 intimately &/or watched many many Pac 10 games, Oregon is a 'mystery' to most. Yea they lost to OSU last year in Rose (more on that shortly), but did anyone really predict the BCS for them? Seriously? Till almost the last weekend, I recall the media clamoring on how Boise or TCU should be playing. Other than Oregon's O & their style, it seemed to me it was more 'look at how this PAC 10 team has to be gimmicky w/ their O & hurry up to wear teams out or catch off guard' than great O & good D...I digress...teams typically in BCS champ game have to be tested at some point & normally do get that w/in Conf play. As mentioned, the SEC teams will always be viewed as their test is way better than any other conf (& rightfully so in many cases but not all), so debate it all you want it may or may not be a factor in capping the entirety of what will unfold. To me, it's a wash in this game as to Aub vs Bama & Ore vs Cal comparisons.

A few things I'd like to mention or point out in Favor of Oregon. Rose Bowl 2010. OSU gave the Ducks all they needed to know in playing a QB like they will in Cam. Very comparable though Cam has some extra intangibles to factor. However, what occurred in Rose & how they game planned in conjunction w/ game film of Cam will help them MORE than most will account for. 2ndly, Oregon's pace IMO will wear down Auburn players. By late 3Q & into 4th, Auburn will be wondering what in the world is going on. Do most realize that Oregon has run 100 more Offensive plays than Auburn. 1 freaking HUNDRED. In the world of football that is easily 2 games of football & maybe even 3 for some. As a point of ref, Aub D has had approx 675 O plays run against them...Oregon O has run 991 O plays. Oregon has run more than 300+ offensive plays than the Auburn D has seen. PACE PACE PACE. It will be a factor in this game. I also believe Oregon's team speed (both sides of ball) is either faster or as fast as Aub but that is something we will see vs right/wrong in discussions. Side note: don't be surprised if one of Auburn's tactics is to SLOW the game down to greatly reduce PACE Oregon wants. There is a huge quantitative difference in how these teams run their O. 3rd & tied into that Rose Bowl vs OSU; MOTIVATION. Give me a team that has more of it &/or feels slighted & everything else being somewhat equal, MOTIVATION wins every time. Again, is this another line item that can be argued who has more, SURE, but which team has had all the pub, which team comes from the OMNIPOTENT Conference, which team has the Heisman Trophy winner...I'd say Oregon will be a little bit more motivated & out to prove something than Auburn, but some may disagree. 5th, Heisman winner jinx. Someone will post it or it'll be broadcast as to how unsuccessful Heisman winners have done in Champ games. I'll dig it out but my recollection is NOT GOOD. Too many interviews, too many ATTA BOYS & all I know is they stink in this type of game.

Side note: I run a special spreadsheet stat driven program that gives me a LINE on game. W/O all the details, wrong team FAVORED. I get Oregon -5. Fool proof, NO, but interesting, very interesting.

D side, huge difference in points allowed but Auburn backers will simply point out SEC vs PAC competition & discount Oregon's D. I'd like to point out as a point of ref similar to those who took 1 game of each team & how they struggled or came back to win...Check out what Oregon D did to Andrew Luck & Stanford's O this year. Pretty decisive. Luck, #1 player in NFL draft & if you watched what he did to Va Tech, it's obvious why all are gushing over this kid. Again, what did Oregon's D do to Luck & a damn good Stanford O (balanced run & pass). The closest Auburn may have come to this is Bama & Bama QB is no LUCK.

Obviously, I've painted more reasons to like Oregon. Auburn has arguably one of best QBs, played one of toughest schedules in best Conf of all, SEC has won all these BCS games recently, faster?, bigger and so on...and I'm sure someone can punch a few holes in what I've presented w/ Oregon while pointing out additional pluses I didn't mention for Auburn. However, I do this so others can see a POV maybe they didn't quite know or think of? Discussion points...LOL

I like the DOG, will take to 3 or more & hope for best or hope for what I've thrown out to happen. It's hard to bet against SEC, but I'm hoping in this scenario, I've looked at all the angles, gotten all the data points, dug out all the ins/outs of each team & maybe come across some game plans each will try to implement to give me all the angles I need to feel good about my pick. Do that & win, lose or PUSH, I'll feel damn good & will enjoy the game.

Hope this helps any and all.

Best to each of you & your pick.

VV

[ravenmaniac]

Thanks VV. Nice analysis

[garth]

Good luck, BW. I like the Hogs also. Haven't decided yet on the game next Monday.

[BigWeiner]

Nice write up VV, and I'm probably getting fooled. I'm on the west coast and watched a lot of Oregon games, they're good, but Auburn seems to have more all around talent imo. Like I said, the two games that stand out for me or Oregon at Cal, and Auburn at Bama, I probably shouldn't let those decide my play, but they do.

[vinnyvegas]

Nice write up VV, and I'm probably getting fooled. I'm on the west coast and watched a lot of Oregon games, they're good, but Auburn seems to have more all around talent imo. Like I said, the two games that stand out for me or Oregon at Cal, and Auburn at Bama, I probably shouldn't let those decide my play, but they do.

I totally understand. This is a tough game that could go either way. I leaned Auburn initially but as I mentioned, I've become a Duck backer. Good luck buddy & always appreciate your posts.