Announcement

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:36 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Wild card weekend

The NFL playoffs is supposed to separate the contenders from the pretenders but every now and then, a bad team sneaks into postseason play.

That's right Seattle. We're looking at you.

For the first time in three years, we've got a team catching double-digits points in a wild-card playoff game. Of course the 2007 Tennessee Titans were 10.5-point dogs on the road, whereas this year's Seahawks are getting 10.5 points at home against the New Orleans Saints.

This is the biggest line on the board by a landslide, but you had to expect that with the defending champs lining up against the NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks. That’s exactly why this line was so tough to nail down - that and the fact that no one's really sure who's going to be Seattle's starting quarterback on Saturday.

Charlie Whitehurst started and played the entire game against St. Louis on Sunday night but veteran, starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck - bad hip and all - is expected to share first-team-offensive snaps with Whitehurst this week.

"We think this line is a Whitehurst line," said Andrew Patterson, an oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "We were originally thinking about [recommending] +7 or +7.5 and that was with Hasselbeck starting."

Patterson says Hasselbeck is still a significant upgrade from Whitehurst, who has just two career NFL starts under his belt.

"You what happened Sunday night," Patterson said. "The line for the game against the Rams went as high as +4.5 and then word broke that Hasselbeck might start and it dropped back down to +3, -105"

But Greg Sindall, oddsmaker at SportsInteraction.com, says this spread will most likely grow, not shrink, in the days leading up to the game.

“That spread will only get bigger as the week progresses,” Sindall says. “As a public team and the defending champions, the Saints attract action naturally. Add in the fact that they are opening the playoffs against a 7-9 team, you can expect serious action coming in on the Saints.”

Here's a look at the odds for the other three playoff games this weekend:

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 44.5)

This is a matchup full of question marks. The Jets have injury concerns and slumped down the stretch, while Indianapolis won four straight to secure the No. 3 seed in the AFC, but covered only twice over the last six games.

“If the Colts weren’t so good at home, this would be closer to a pick’em,” says Sindall, "but Peyton Manning is great at home. I don’t expect this line to move off the key number. I think the price on the Colts could drop, but I don’t expect the spread to move.”

Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino, expects some Jets action this week.

“The Colts really struggled with the Titans and the Jets, although they didn’t play as well as expected down the stretch, will be the trendy pick getting points,” Esposito says.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, 41)

This is the line that both Sindall and Esposito figure will see the most movement this week.

“I think the one favorite that gets backing is the Ravens,” Esposito says. “The Chiefs with all of their starters playing and an opportunity to finish the season undefeated at home were pushed around on both sides of the ball by the Raiders, who were playing without their best player on offense.”

Sindall adds that if you’re leaning toward the Ravens, you’d better act quick.

“The Ravens are clearly the superior team,” Sindall says. “They finished with a better record with a tougher schedule and are seasoned veterans and playoff regulars. This is why they are road favorites.

“Get on Baltimore now while this line is less than a field goal,” Sindall adds.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46)

Esposito expects some serious action on the Packers here.

“The Eagles dropped back to back games and didn’t play well while the Packers may be the best team in the NFC and they are getting points,” says Esposito. “I think the early action will be heavy on the Packers getting points.”

The total should also get some attention early this week.

“Look for the total to go up,” Sindall says. “You can expect the public to jump on the over with these offenses.”

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:36 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 8

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) at SEATTLE (7 - 9) - 1/8/2011, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (11 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 6) - 1/8/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 9

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BALTIMORE (12 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 6) - 1/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (10 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) - 1/9/2011, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 142-100 ATS (+32.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-29 ATS (+20.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 132-99 ATS (+23.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:37 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, 1/8/2011

NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE, 4:30 PM ET NBC
NEW ORLEANS: 6-0 Under off SU loss as favorite
SEATTLE: 0-10 ATS off a home win

NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY JETS: 8-0 Over in road games
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-1 Over off an Under

Sunday, 1/9/2011

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET CBS
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 100+ total yards last game
KANSAS CITY: 7-0 Under after being outrushed by 75+ yards last game

GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA, 4:30 PM ET FOX
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Under in conference road games
PHILADELPHIA: 31-12 ATS revenging loss by 7pts or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 01-03-2011, 10:38 PM

NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 8

4:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SEATTLE
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
NY Jets are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
NY Jets are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games on the road
Indianapolis is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, January 9

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

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**Udog** · 01-05-2011, 09:29 AM

NFL
Dunkel

NY Jets at Indianapolis
The Jets look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 1 to 3 points. New York is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 8

Game 101-102: New Orleans at Seattle (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 136.311; Seattle 123.505
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 13; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: NY Jets at Indianapolis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 137.025; Indianapolis 136.338
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 9

Game 105-106: Baltimore at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.465; Kansas City 131.682
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Over

Game 107-108: Green Bay at Philadelphia (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.682; Philadelphia 137.710
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 3; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Under

**Udog** · 01-07-2011, 08:37 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Wildcard Weekend
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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+10.5)

Why Saints cover: Seattle limped into the playoffs losing seven of their last 10 games both straight up and ATS and will go with a banged-up Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. The Seahawks lost 34-19 and failed to cover against New Orleans as 11-point underdogs in Week 11. At 15 points, that was their closet margin of defeat this season. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Seahawks cover: With both Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory hitting injured reserve this week and Ladell Betts already lost for the season, New Orleans is down to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones to shoulder their rushing attack. The problem is, Bush is not a primary ball carrier and the declining Jones was brought in off the street after Week 5 as insurance. Neither player has carried the ball on a regular basis this season, with Bush rushing more than five times only twice and never hitting double-digit carries in a game and Jones maxing out at a season-high 10 rushes against Dallas in Week 12. New Orleans struggled this year when their offense became one-dimensional.

Total (44): Over is 5-1-1 in the Saints' last seven playoff games and 4-1 in the Seahawks' last five home games.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Why Jets cover: The Colts offense has been hit hard by injuries this season, their running game has been ineffective and Peyton Manning has uncharacteristically been throwing interceptions at inopportune times. All of these things will have Rex Ryan and the Jets' third-ranked defense salivating. If Indy can't get some semblance of a rush attack going to take pressure off the passing game, expect a heavy dose of blitz packages from New York to try and force Manning into making a mistake.

Why Colts cover: The biggest question for this tilt will be Mark Sanchez's sore shoulder versus Indianapolis' resurgent defense. In their last four games, the Jets were 1-3 both straight up and ATS with Sanchez throwing only one TD pass and five interceptions, while his average yards per completion dropped a full yard during that span. Combine that with the fact that the Colts defense held Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson to 130 yards rushing yards combined over their final three contests and you can see why it could be a long day for New York's offense. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (44.5): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+3)

Why Ravens cover: The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Kansas City has one of the most conservative passing games in the league and their leading receiver, Dwayne Bowe, has been sick all week and is questionable to play. If they can't get their run game going, the Chiefs may have a hard time scoring against a Ravens' defense that is only allowing 16.9 points per game.

Why Chiefs cover: They are one of the best in the NFL at protecting the football while their defense has a knack for forcing turnovers. Baltimore's heralded defense is still pretty good, but it is not what it once was and has been vulnerable against the run at times this season. Peyton Hillis, Arian Foster and Mike Goodson all rushed for 100 or more yards against the Ravens, something that was once unheard of. Now they will have to hold off a Kansas City attack that averaged over 164 yards rushing per game this season, easily tops in the league.

Total (40.5): Under is 4-1 in the Ravens' last five wild-card games and 4-1 in the Chiefs' last five home games.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Why Packers cover: Michael Vick is coming off a quad injury that could limit his effectiveness in the running game. Green Bay has the NFC's second best defense and will be coming at Vick from all sides, which could make it hard for him to have the time for long strikes downfield to his speedy receivers. Philadelphia lost its final two home games and, at 4-4, have the worst home record of any playoff team while being even worse against the spread at 3-5.

Why Eagles cover: Andy Reid (3-0) has never lost a wildcard matchup as a head coach. Green Bay has struggled to run the ball all season and with conditions in Philadelphia likely to be less than ideal for Aaron Rodgers to consistently throw the ball, the Eagles could have an edge in trying to slow down the Packers' offense. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Total (46): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.

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**Udog** · 01-07-2011, 08:44 AM

NFL
Write-Up

Saturday, January 7

Saints (11-5) @ Seahawks (7-9)-- Seattle is first team with losing record to get in NFL playoffs, but they're also 5-3 at home-- all nine of their losses are by at least 15 points. Seahawks are just 3-7 in last ten games, 5-8 vs spread as dog, 3-3 at home. Seattle (+11.5) lost 34-19 in Superdome seven weeks ago, but it is noted that Seahawks gained 424 yards vs Saint defense that was coming off its bye but also had Turkey Day game with Dallas four days away. Saints scored five TDs on nine drives in that game- defending champs ae 6-2 on road in '10, with four wins by four or less points.

Jets (11-5) @ Colts (10-6)-- Indy beat Jets in LY's AFC title game, making this 23rd time teams have met in playoffs two years in row; home side was 14-8 in first 22 games, with those 14 winning teams 11-3 in rematch following season. Indy won last four games behind sheer greatness of QB Manning, winning by 5 or less points in three of those four games. Jets are 2-3 in last five games, have a banged-up QB in Sanchez (unsure how bad his shoulder is)- they're 3-2 as an underdog this season. Indy scored 30+ points in four of last five games.

**Udog** · 01-07-2011, 11:08 PM

NFL

Saturday, January 8

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What Bettors Need to Know
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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (+10, 44)

THE STORY: The Seattle Seahawks have sparked quite a debate just by being in the playoffs - qualifying by virtue of winning the NFC West despite a 7-9 record - and they would love nothing more than to create an even greater buzz Saturday by knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints in their NFC wild card matchup.

Despite being the first NFL team to win its division with a losing record, the Seahawks have their share of playoff seasoning. This is their sixth postseason appearance in the past eight years. But they've also had their share of problems against the pass, ranking 27th in the league, which doesn't bode well against Drew Brees and the NFL's third-best passing offense.

TV: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC

OPENING LINE: Saints -10, O/U 44

The line has been bet down half a point since post. The total has also dropped from 45.5 to 44 points.

WEATHER: The game-time temperature is expected to be in the low-40s with a 40 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-9, 7-9 ATS): Seattle limped into the playoffs, losing three straight and five of six before Sunday's 16-6 home win against St. Louis clinched the Seahawks' fifth NFC West title in seven seasons. The Seahawks rank 28th among 32 NFL teams in total offense, and their running game was particularly punchless, averaging just 89 yards. The ground game was slightly more effective against the Rams, with Marshawn Lynch's 75 yards leading a 141-yard effort, and Seattle might have to lean on its backs against New Orleans' fourth-ranked pass defense, even with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck returning from a one-game absence due to injury.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-5, 7-9 ATS): The defending Super Bowl champions continue to see their backfield ravaged by injuries, as their top two rushers. Rookie Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were placed on injured reserve this week. That leaves former Seahawks back Julius Jones and versatile Reggie Bush to carry the load, but it more likely means the Saints will lean heavily on Brees and the passing game. But everything isn't rosy there, either. Brees has thrown a career-high 22 interceptions this season, including at least one in 12 consecutive games, and top target Marques Colston might not be 100 percent after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his knee Tuesday. The Saints are also thin at tight end, with Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey and David Thomas all listed as questionable.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: As bad as the Seahawks are against the pass, the Saints still need to keep them honest, and Bush could be the guy to do it. New Orleans needs to get him involved in the offense however it can through screens and draws to keep the Seahawks from pinning back their ears and blitzing Brees.

To that end, defensive end Chris Clemons, who leads the Seahawks with 11 sacks, has to wreak havoc for Seattle to have a shot at slowing down the Saints' passing attack. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Seahawks, they need Lynch to turn in another solid game. If they can get the running game going, they can control the clock and keep the ball out of Brees' hands.

RECENT HISTORY: The Saints lead the all-time series 6-5 and have won the past two meetings, including a 34-19 home win in Week 11 of this season in which Brees passed for a season-high 382 yards and four touchdowns — two apiece to Colston and Robert Meachem. It's the first time the teams have met in the postseason.

KEY INJURIES: New Orleans — RB Chris Ivory (foot), RB Pierre Thomas (ankle), CB Malcolm Jenkins (knee), TE Jimmy Graham (ankle), DT Anthony Hargrove (knee), TE Jeremy Shockey (groin), TE David Thomas (knee), WR Marques Colston (knee). Seattle — OT Chester Pitts (head), OT Russell Okung (ankle), CB Kelly Jennings (leg), WR Brandon Stokley (head), QB Matt Hasselbeck (hip).

LAST WORD: The Seahawks' postseason life span might hinge on the sore hip of Hasselbeck, who was named the starter on Thursday. He threw for a season-high 366 yards in the Week 11 loss to the Saints, and his top two passing yardage totals over the past six seasons have come against New Orleans. Add to that the fact that he has won his last four home playoff starts, and it’s clear the Saints would have preferred to see Charlie Whitehurst, who has started only two games in his career and never seen action in the postseason.

TRENDS:

- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.
- Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Saints’ last seven playoff games.
- Over is 8-1 in Seahawks’ last nine games overall.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 44.5)

THE STORY: Both the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets might have expected to see each other in the playoffs – just not this soon. It’s a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game, which the Colts won 30-17 after erasing a 17-6 deficit. Injury-ravaged Indianapolis has taken a step backward from the juggernaut that won its first 14 games a year ago before losing to the Jets – after coach Jim Caldwell decided to pull his starters at halftime with the Colts in front. That was the only time Jets coach Rex Ryan beat Peyton Manning in six career matchups. Still, the same brashness that led Ryan to declare the Jets as Super Bowl favorites heading into last season’s playoffs hasn’t waned. Ryan vowed to get revenge and said beating Manning and the Colts this time around is “personal.”

TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, NBC

LINE: Colts -2.5, O/U 44.5

The spread has fallen from a field goal to -2.5 while the total has remained steady at 44.5 points.

WEATHER: Dome

ABOUT THE COLTS (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS): The Colts were in danger of missing the playoffs before reeling off four consecutive wins, capped by last week’s 23-20 victory over that Tennessee Titans that gave them nine straight 10-win seasons. Both Indy’s receiving corps and running backs were decimated by injuries throughout the season, forcing Manning to carry an even bigger load. The strain showed at times with Manning throwing 17 interceptions – his highest total since the 2002-03 season. RB Joseph Addai returned for the final two games following a seven-week absence and Dominic Rhodes has provided a spark to the ground game since he was signed from the UFL. The Colts’ defense has not held an opponent under 20 points since Week 10.

ABOUT THE JETS (11-5, 9-7 ATS): The Jets were cruising along with a 9-2 record until absorbing a 45-3 beating by New England – starting a stretch of three losses in four games. They may have saved their season with a 22-17 victory at Pittsburgh in Week 15. QB Mark Sanchez has been bothered by a sore throwing shoulder, but made just a cameo appearance in last week’s season finale and said he’s good to go. New York has shown a propensity for falling behind away from home. The Jets were able to overcome road deficits to notch overtime wins against Cleveland and Detroit, but coming from behind against Manning will be a different story.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: For the Colts, it all starts and ends with Manning. He seems to have overcome a midseason swoon that saw him get picked off 13 times in four games, including back-to-back four-interception outings. Manning threw for 4,700 yards, becoming the third QB in league history to have consecutive 4,500-yard seasons. Pierre Garcon torched the Jets in last season’s AFC title game, sharing 11 passes for 151 yards and a TD. Tight end Jacob Tamme also has emerged as a favorite target after Dallas Clark was lost for the season. He had 67 receptions and four touchdowns. On defense, bookends Dwight Freeney (10) and Robert Mathis (21) combined for 21 sacks.

Sanchez has regressed as the season progressed. He threw at least one interception in eight of his last nine games and had a passer rating above 87.2 just once after Week 4. Unlike a year ago, the Jets arrive in Indy with some playoff-tested veterans, including RB LaDainian Tomlinson and wide receiver Santonio Holmes, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIII. Tomlinson has not surpassed 57 yards since Week 5, and the Jets need to get production from him and RB Shonn Green to keep Manning off the field. … Cornerback Antonio Cromartie could play a pivotal role, matching up against either Garcon or Reggie Wayne.

RECENT HISTORY: Indianapolis has won seven of the last 10 meetings – and one of those losses came with backups on the field.

KEY INJURIES: Jets: Questionable – DE Trevor Pryce (hip), DB James Ihedigbo (knee), DE Shaun Ellis (back); Colts: Questionable: LB Clint Session (elbow), DB Kelvin Hayden (neck), RB Mike Hart (ankle) S Al Afalava (ankle), DT Daniel Muir (chest), G Jaimie Thomas (ankle).

LAST WORD: “We are not going to Indianapolis to lose, we are going there to win. That’s our mentality and always will be. I believe in our football team. I know that’s an excellent football team we’re going to play but they’re getting our best shot. This will be a great game and as long as the Jets win, I’ll sign up for it.” – Jets coach Rex Ryan.

TRENDS:

- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
- Jets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
- Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.
- Over is 4-1 in Jets’ last five playoff games.
- Under is 8-3 in Colts’ last 11 playoff games.

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**Udog** · 01-07-2011, 11:11 PM

NFL

Wild Card Round

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NFL total bias: Wildcard Weekend over/under picks
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About a month ago, the notion that the Indianapolis Colts would be playing a home game in the first round of the playoffs seemed nuttier than a Rex Ryan reality show.

But sure enough, after a season full of injuries and inconsistency, the Colts are back in the big dance again and are set to host the New York Jets Saturday. This time though, instead of strolling into the postseason as the belle of the ball, quarterback Peyton Manning is little more than an afterthought with the mainstream media fawning over Tom Brady, Mike Vick, Drew Brees and just about any other QB taking snaps this weekend.

That’s probably just the way Peyton likes it. He has suffered through some rough stretches during the regular season but considering he has been throwing to glorified tackling dummies all season, the numbers look pretty good.

Last year, Manning threw for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns with 16 interceptions, but finished with 4,700 yards, 33 majors and 17 picks this season. To me, it’s one of the more impressive seasons he has put together since his 49-touchdown year he put together in 2004-05.

I don’t think his year ends Saturday either.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 44.5)

Sure, the Colts didn’t look great last week against the Titans, but Manning is finally getting a little help over the club’s winning streak. The running game has come around and is averaging 133.5 yards per game over the last four while the team’s defense is giving up only 80 yards an outing on the ground.

Considering the circus the Jets are running over the last little while they’re going to have their hands full Saturday. Six of the last seven meetings between these two teams have played over the total and I don’t see that trend ending this week.

Pick: Over

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 46.5)

It seems that everybody outside of the guys who really matter, the guys who set these odds that we’ve been salivating over all week, figures the Philadelphia Eagles are the real underdogs against the Green Bay Packers at home Sunday.

The books have Philly set as about a 3-point favorite but, right now, all the talk is that Green Bay might be the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs.

"Anybody can drag your name through the mud," Eagles safety Kurt Coleman told reporters. "I love the underdog role. Love it."

How much he’ll love it Sunday remains to be seen. This one’s going to be a real battle and with Vick banged up and weather likely to be a factor, I’m siding with defense here.

Pick: Under

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (11, 44)

Some interesting news came out of the Seahawks’ camp on Thursday. Barring any setbacks, Matt Hasselbeck will start at quarterback Saturday. Now, the interesting part of that isn’t that the vet will be taking the snaps, but that this news was actually released so early in the week.

I thought we’d head into the weekend still wondering whether it was going to be Charlie Whitehurst or Hasselbeck. This total opened at 45.5 and I think it’ll start moving back up now that the news is out and as Saints bettors start picking their totals.

While New Orleans owns the fourth best total defense in the league, square bettors are still pumping up the Saints’ totals. So if you’re going to get in on the over, you’d better act quickly.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 26-26

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**Udog** · 01-08-2011, 07:19 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 8

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Tips and Trends
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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks [FOX | 4:30 PM ET]

SAINTS: (-10.5, O/U 44.5) The defending Super Bowl champions begin their defense in the playoffs on the road tonight. New Orleans is 11-5 SU and 7-9 ATS overall this season. The Saints aren't exactly firing on all cylinders, as they have lost 2 of their last 3 games SU entering tonight. The Saints have already beaten Seattle once this season, so they will enter tonight with confidence. The Saints are 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this year. New Orleans is 1-2 ATS as a double digit favorite this year. The Saints are led by QB Drew Brees, as he's having another NFL MVP type season. Brees has thrown for 4,620 YDS and 33 TD's this season. THe Saints are averaging 24 PPG this season, while averaging 277 YPG through the air, 3rd best in the NFL. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing just 19.2 PPG this year, 7th fewest in the NFL. The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Saints are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss. New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC. The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in January.

Saints are 1-8 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Over is 20-9 last 29 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - WR Marques Colston (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

SEAHAWKS: Seattle beat St. Louis last week at home to win the NFC West. The bad news is that they clinched a playoff despite a losing SU record of 7-9 SU. The Seahawks also finished 7-9 ATS, as they had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game this year. Seattle was 5-3 both SU and ATS in home games this year. Seattle was the home underdog in 6 games this year, ultimately going 3-3. Today will be just the 2nd time this season the Seahawks will be a double digit underdog. QB Matt Hasselback will make the start tonight, and he's thrown for more than 3,000 YDS and 12 TD's this season. The Seahawks averaged 19.4 PPG this season despite the worst rushing offense in the NFL. Defensively, Seattle allowed 25.4 PPG this year. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in January. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Seahawks are 6-19-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Seattle is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.

Seahawks are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - QB Matt Hasselback (hip) is probable.

Projected Score: 13

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts [NBC | 8:05 PM ET]

JETS: New York lost 3 of their final 5 games this season, but they still enter with a solid 11-5 SU record. The Jets have been in the headlines all season long, making them quite popular. New York went 9-7 ATS this year, quite a feat considering their popularity. The Jets were 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road this season. New York is 3-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. New York has a dominant running game, as they average nearly 150 YPG rushing, 4th most in the NFL. The Jets will look to run the football often today to keep the high powered Colts passing game on the sidelines. RB LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 914 YDS and 6 TD's this season. WR Braylon Edwards had 904 receiving YDS and 7 TD's this year. Defensively, New York allowed just 19 PPG, 6th fewest in the NFL. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New York is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog up to a field goal. The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in January. New York is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the AFC. The Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. New York is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.

Jets are 10-4 ATS last 14 road games.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DB Antonio Cromartie (groin) is probable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

COLTS: (-2.5 O/U 44.5) Indianapolis enters the playoffs with a 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS overall record. QB Peyton Manning appears to be vulnerable this season, as his Colts team doesn't appear to be as dominant as past seasons. Regardless, Indy is hosting a playoff game against a coach they've had great success against. The Colts are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS in home games this year. Indy was 6-7-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Manning threw for 4,700 YDS and 33 TD's this season. Manning led an offense that averaged 27.2 PPG this season, 4th most in the NFL. The Colts allowed 24.3 PPG this season, something they must improve on now that the playoffs are here. The Colts are 18-7-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 35-16-3 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU win. Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed favorite. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Colts are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 7-0 last 7 Saturday games.

Key Injuries - T Ryan Diem (back) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20

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**Udog** · 01-08-2011, 10:20 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 9

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 40.5)

THE STORY: The Baltimore Ravens enter the postseason as one of the league's hottest teams and owning the third-best record in the NFL. Still, they will open the playoffs on the road when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs will be counting on every bit of that home-field advantage against Baltimore, which won its final four games and six of its last seven. The only loss in that stretch was 13-10 vs. Pittsburgh – a defeat that prevented the Ravens from claiming a first-round bye and the No. 2 overall seed. Kansas City, which hasn’t won a playoff game since 1994, went 7-1 at home this season, the only loss coming in a meaningless game vs. Oakland last weekend.

TV: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

OPENING LINE: Ravens -1, O/U 41.5

This spread moved from its opening to a field goal with one-sided action on the road team. The total dropped one point at most books to 40.5.

WEATHER: Cloudy with chance of a few snow showers and temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will blow of speeds up to 15 mph, from corner to corner (southeast).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (10-6, 9-7 ATS): The Chiefs rebounded from a last-place finish to win the AFC West title this season. Sparked by the league’s top-ranked rushing attack, Kansas City had as many wins as the last three seasons combined. Jamaal Charles finished second in the league with 1,467 yards and his 6.38-per-yard carry average ranks second all-time to Hall of Famer Jim Brown among backs with 1,400-plus yards. Despite the six-game win improvement from last season, the Chiefs beat just one team with a winning record (San Diego) - and they were annihilated by the Chargers in the rematch. There are some blips that were cause for concern over the final eight games, with a 20-point loss to Denver, a 31-point defeat to San Diego and a 21-point beating by Oakland.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (12-4, 8-7-1 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco and Baltimore are in the postseason for the third consecutive year. Aside from a Week 2 defeat to Cincinnati, the Ravens’ other losses were to New England, Atlanta and Pittsburgh – teams that sport a collective 39-9 record. Playing away from home doesn’t seem to faze the Ravens, who are 3-0 in wild card road games and inflicted one of the worst beatings on a Bill Belichick-coached team with a 33-14 rout at New England in last year’s postseason. Per usual, defense is a strength for Baltimore, which surrendered the third-fewest points in the league and held five of its last seven opponents to 13 points or less. The Ravens’ fifth-ranked run defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 13 consecutive playoff games.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: While Charles and Thomas Jones have fueled Kansas City’s No. 1-ranked ground game, Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe will be looking to exploit Baltimore’s sometimes-shaky pass defense. Cassel has thrown for 27 touchdowns – including an NFL-high 15 to Bowe – and just seven interceptions, but he must bounce back from a rocky outing in the regular-season finale against Oakland (11 of 33, 2 INTs), compiling a dreadful passer rating of 19.1. In his previous six games, Cassel had thrown for 15 TDs and was picked off just once. Bowe missed practiced Wednesday due to illness but is expected to be fine for the game.

Middle linebacker Ray Lewis is in inspirational leader and safety Ed Reed is a clutch playoff performer, but Baltimore’s ability to shut down the Chiefs may hinge on Terrell Suggs’ ability to pressure Cassel and massive nose tackle Haloti Ngata’s ability to stuff the run at the point of attack. Ray Rice ran for a quiet 1,220 yards, eclipsing 100 yards just twice. Baltimore needs a strong game out of him to take the onus off Flacco. The third-year QB had career highs in yards (3,622) and TDs (25), but averaged a mere 133 yards passing in his last three games.

RECENT HISTORY: The teams have played just twice in the past five seasons, with Baltimore winning both. Flacco threw for 307 yards and three TDs as the Ravens beat visiting Kansas City (minus an injured Cassel) 48-24 in the 2009 season opener.

KEY INJURIES: Ravens: LB Dannell Ellerbe (head), LB Tavares Gooden (shoulder), LB Jameel McClain (back), S Ed Reed (chest), CB Josh Wilson (head), S Tom Zbikowski (back); Chiefs: G Brian Waters (illness).

LAST WORD: Six teams have emerged from the wild card round and went on to win the Super Bowl. One of those teams was the Ravens, who accomplished the feat with a 34-7 drubbing of the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

TRENDS:

- Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff road games.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.
- Under is 5-2 in Ravens’ last seven playoff games.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five games in January.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46)

THE STORY: Michael Vick and the Eagles get a second crack at the Green Bay Packers, who recorded a 27-20 victory in Philadelphia in Week 1. Vick came off the bench in that game when starter Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion and nearly rallied the Eagles all the way back from a 20-3 deficit. With Vick at the controls, Philadelphia will pit the NFC’s highest-scoring offense against the conference’s stingiest defense. One of the big question marks is the health of Vick, who suffered a bruised quadriceps in a Week 16 loss to Minnesota and sat out the regular-season finale against Dallas. Vick hurt the Eagles with his legs in the season opener, rushing for 103 yards on 11 carries.

TV: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX

OPENING LINE: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46.5

This spread dropped as low as -2 and climbed as high as -3, but has settled around -2.5 with most books. The total has fallen half a point to 46 points.

WEATHER: Sunny with high temperatures in the mid 30s. There is a strong-to-medium wind blowing northwest from corner to corner at 20 mph.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (10-6, 7-9 ATS): Philadelphia comes into the postseason off two straight losses, including a 24-14 home loss to the Vikings that coach Andy Reid termed “embarrassing.” While Reid rested a number of key players in last week’s loss to Dallas, some observers have questioned whether the Eagles are too reliant on the home-run ball and have opposing defenses finally figured out how to contain Vick. In his first six starts, Vick did not throw an interception, but he has been picked off six times and lost a pair of fumbles in his last five games. Reid knows how to prepare his team for the postseason: The Eagles are 4-1 in wild card games – 3-0 at home – in his tenure.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (10-6, 9-7 ATS): Despite myriad injuries, the Packers secured the No. 6 seed by beating the New York Giants and Chicago Bears in the final two weeks. Green Bay’s running game never really recovered after losing Ryan Grant to a knee injury in the season opener. Despite a somewhat one-dimensional offense, Aaron Rodgers threw for 3,922 yards with 28 TDs and 11 interceptions while leading the NFC in passing rating at 101.2 – just ahead of Vick. The Packers’ defense has played superbly down the stretch, holding five of their last nine opponents to seven points or less. Green Bay has not fared well in tight games, however. Of its six losses, all have come by four points or fewer.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: No team loves to blitz as much as Philadelphia, so the Packers will need to feature some semblance of a ground game to keep Rodgers upright. Brandon Jackson rushed for 703 yards, but he averages just 3.7 yards a pop and went over 39 yards only once in his last six games. Wide receiver Greg Jennings scored 12 touchdowns on the season and had four 100-yard games in the last seven weeks. Defensively, cornerback Charles Woodson will be matched up against either DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin and also loves to come on the blitz, as does linebacker Clay Matthews, who registered 13.5 sacks.

A favorable weather forecast should not hinder Philly’s passing game, but Green Bay’s tight man-to-man coverage could. To that end, the Eagles need to get dual-threat RB LeSean McCoy heavily involved in the offense. The second-year back rushed for 1,080 yards and also had 78 receptions, best among all NFL running backs. On the other side of the ball, Trent Cole leads the defensive unit with 10.0 sacks. Rodgers will have to be wary of cornerback Asante Samuel, who had seven interceptions in 11 games and has carved a reputation as a brilliant postseason performance. He has returned four interceptions for touchdowns in the playoffs.

RECENT HISTORY: Philadelphia stunned Green Bay 20-17 in 2003 in the last playoff matchup between the teams. Donovan McNabb converted a fourth-and-26 pass that led to the tying field goal before the Eagles won in overtime.

KEY INJURIES: Green Bay — S Atari Bigby (groin), FB Korey Hall (groin). Philadelphia — LB Stewart Bradley (elbow), G Max Jean-Gilles (ankle).

LAST WORD: Prior to the season-opening victory, Green Bay had lost nine consecutive games at Philadelphia, last winning in 1962.

TRENDS:

- Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Philadelphia.
- Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

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**Udog** · 01-09-2011, 08:59 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 9

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

RAVENS: (-3, O/U 41) Baltimore has won their past 4 games entering the playoffs, making this veteran team that much more dangerous. The Ravens are 12-4 SU and 8-7-1 ATS overall this season. Baltimore is 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in road contests this year. The Ravens are 5-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. QB Joe Flacco has thrown for 3,622 YDS this season, including 25 TD's. RB Ray Rice has rushed for 1,220 YDS and 5 TD's this year. The Ravens defense is still the heart of this team, both physically and emotionally. Baltimore is allowing just 16.9 PPG, 3rd fewest in the NFL. The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff road games. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in January.

Ravens are 4-1 ATS last 5 Wildcard games.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - S Ed Reed (ribs) is probable.

Projected Score: 20

CHIEFS: Kansas City had a storybook season, winning the AFC West thanks to a 10-6 SU record. The Chiefs were dominant at home this season, going 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. Kansas City was 5-2 ATS as the listed underdog this year, including 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed home underdog. The Chiefs averaged an NFL high 162 YPG rushing this year. RB Jamaal Charles rushed for 1,467 YDS this year, including 5 TD's. Teammate Thomas Jones rushed for nearly 900 YDS and 6 TD's this year. Kansas City averaged 22.9 PPG overall this season. Defensively, the Chiefs allowed 20.4 PPG this year. Overall, this is a very young team that will gain incredible experience hosting a playoff game against a veteran team like Baltimore. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as the listed underdog. Kansas City is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in January. Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.

Chiefs are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games.

Key Injuries - G Brian Waters (illness) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles [FOX | 4:30 PM ET]

PACKERS: Green Bay had to win their final 2 games SU in order to qualify for the playoffs. The Packers did just that, and it earned them a spot in the Wildcard round on the road in Philadelphia. The Packers finished the regular season with a 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS record. Green Bay was 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS record on the road this year. The Packers were 2-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 3,922 YDS and 28 TD's this year. WR Greg Jennings had 1,265 receiving YDS and 12 TD's in a productive season for Green Bay. Green Bay averaged 24.3 PPG overall this season, while allowing the 2nd fewest PPG in the NFL at 15 PPG. The Packers defense was one of the surprising units in the NFL this season. The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wildcard games.

Packers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - DE Cullen Jenkins (calf) is probable.

Projected Score: 23

EAGLES: (-2.5, O/U 46.5) Philadelphia has lost their last 2 games SU, putting quite a bit of damper into the huge optimism for this Eagles team. Philadelphia has struggled of late due to the health of QB Michael Vick. The Eagles enter the playoffs with a 10-6 SU and 7-9 ATS overall record. Philadelphia was only 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia was 5-6 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. Vick has nearly 3,700 total YDS this season, including 30 TD's. WR DeSean Jackson had a highlight reel season, as he's one of the best gamebreakers in the league. Jackson had 1,056 YDS and 6 TD's on the season. The Eagles averaged 27.4 PPG this year, 3rd most in the NFL. Philadelphia has plenty of revenge against the Packers tonight, based on them losing in Week 1 at home. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite up to a field goal. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC.

Eagles are 0-4 ATS last 4 games played in January.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 playoff home games.

Key Injuries - QB Michael Vick (quad) is probable.

Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (1/8 - 1/9)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (1/8 - 1/9)

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