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**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 07:32 PM

NFL Playoffs: Falcons draw top NFC odds

The Atlanta Falcons are not the defending world champions like the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons don’t have a player as charismatic and dangerous as Michel Vick, or a glorified team history such as the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.

What the Falcons do have his home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Atlanta earned it by virtue of a 13-3 record, 11-5 ATS. The Falcons will have two weeks to rest and then meet the lowest seeded team to advance out of the wild-card round.

It’s the first time in 30 years the Falcons are the top seed. They last captured the NFC South Division title in 2004.

Bodog lists Atlanta as 9/5 favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, the top odds in the conference ahead of the Chicago Bears (7/2) and New Orleans (4/1). The Falcons are tied with the Steelers at 11/2 to win the Super Bowl, both teams trailing the 2/1 New England Patriots.

The NFC appears more wide open than the AFC where New England has been dominant for the past eight weeks.

The Falcons generate respect for all their success, but not awe. That’s because they’re not flashy, just a solid well-rounded, stable team with a strong home field.

Atlanta is 20-4 under third-year coach Mike Smith inside the Georgia Dome, going 16-4 ATS. The straight-up record is even better at 20-2 since Matt Ryan became Atlanta’s quarterback. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 15 consecutive games.

The Falcons are 10-4 ATS as home ‘chalk’ and have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been favored.

Ryan, wide receiver Roddy White and running back Michael Turner all rate among the best at their respective positions. Tight end Tony Gonzalez, a future Hall of Famer, is past his prime but still effective. He caught 70 passes and scored six touchdowns, third-highest on the team.

White finished second to Denver’s Brandon Lloyd in receiving yards with 1,389 giving it a good go for anyone who played a prop on White to lead the league in receiving yards at odds of 24/1. White broke Terance Mathis’ team record of 111 catches in 1994 by hauling in 115 passes.

Turner placed fifth in rushing with 1,304 yards. He was 18/1 to lead the NFL in rushing.

Ryan, in just his third season, threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns with nine interceptions.

Defensive end John Abraham placed second in sacks with 13. The Falcons’ top defensive player, though, may have been middle linebacker Curtis Lofton. He paced Atlanta with 118 tackles, while also recording two sacks, three forced fumbles and an interception.

The Falcons clinched the No. 1 seed rolling past Carolina, 31-10, as 14-point home favorites. Atlanta lost two defensive players in that victory as linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (shoulder) and cornerback Brian Williams (knee) both went out. Weatherspoon is the team’s No. 4 linebacker while Williams is the Falcons’ nickel back.

There’s a good chance the Falcons could face their division rivals the Saints in their next game. The Saints are heavy favorites against Seattle while Green Bay, the No. 6 seed, is a road underdog to Philadelphia.

The Falcons defeated the Saints, 27-24 in overtime, as three-point road underdogs in Week 3. The Saints got their revenge a week ago ago on Monday night winning, 17-14, as two-point road ‘dogs.

New Orleans held the Falcons to a season-low 215 yards. Ryan, White and Turner all struggled White was held to a season-low three catches. Turner could manage only 48 yards on the ground and a 2.8 per carry average. He had averaged 104.6 yards rushing and 4.1 yards per attempt during the previous five weeks.

The Falcons should be especially fired-up to face the Saints as after their loss to them several New Orleans players took pictures of the Falcons’ team logo and defensive tackle Remi Ayodele said he urinated on the logo.

The Saints have won eight of the past 11 games versus the Falcons.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 07:33 PM

NFL Playoffs: Patriots best bet to win it all

The New England Patriots could face some familiar foes in their path to reach Super Bowl XLV, while enjoying home-field advantage in each matchup. Bill Belichick’s crew clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a 14-2 record and will scout their opposition with a first-round bye this weekend.

New England won all eight of its home contests during the regular season, cashing with a 4-3-1 spread mark. The ‘over’ collected at 7-1 in that stretch, with the Patriots putting up a sizable 34 PPG.

October’s visit from the Baltimore Ravens saw the sole ‘under’ ticket cash, with New England winning, 23-20, in overtime as a three-point favorite. The close battle’s combined 43 points barely stayed south of its 45 ½-point ‘total.’

Baltimore is one of three teams who could travel to Gillette Stadium for the Patriots’ first playoff matchup, slated to take place Jan. 16. The Ravens are joined in that trio by the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets.

New England has not had any meetings this year with Kansas City, but has faced the Jets twice in AFC East Division battles. The Patriots were defeated as three-point favorites in September’s road duel against New York, 28-14, but avenged the loss in last month’s home rematch, 45-3, as four-point ‘chalk.’

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts are possible contenders to meet New England in the AFC Championship game, scheduled for Jan. 23. Both foes lost contests against the Patriots during the regular season, and would have a marquee rematch circled for revenge.

New England won, 39-26, as a 4 ½-point road dog in its Nov. 14 trip to Pittsburgh. The rivals united for 49 points in the fourth quarter, easily lifting the matchup ‘over’ its ‘total’ of 44 ½. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady finished the duel with 350 passing yards, tossing three touchdowns and rushing for one more.

The following Sunday’s league slate saw the Patriots return home for a 31-28 triumph as four-point favorites against Indianapolis. New England’s defense allowed 396 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air from Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who led his offense to the end zone in all four of its trips inside the Patriots’ 20-yard line.

Sports books list New England as a minus 115 choice to win the AFC Championship, with Pittsburgh (3/1) and Baltimore (8/1) following Brady and Co. on futures odds boards. Last year’s champion Indianapolis stands at 9/1 odds for lifting the Lamar Hunt trophy again, while New York (15/1) and Kansas City (19/1) are the cluster’s darkest horses.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 07:36 PM

Wild Card history
January 3, 2011

NFL WILDCARD NOTEBOOK...AND THANKS, PETE!

Last week, when recalling past closing weeks of pro football regular season action, we mentioned 1965 and results from 45 years ago that necessitated a one-game Western Conference playoff between the Colts and Packers. In retrospect, that turned out to be one of the most important games of the modern era, for a couple of reasons. First, it triggered a rules change in the league, as goalpost uprights were raised in height the following year after the referees botched Green Bay PK Don Chandler's game-tying field goal in the 4th Q. More importantly, however, it was the forerunner to the modern playoff format, and, by extension, subsequent "wildcard" postseason entrants that became part of pro football's fabric after the AFL and NFL merged in 1970.

And for that, we can forever thank former NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle.

The drama of Colts-Packers, and the accompanying TV ratings bonanza it generated on December 26, 1965, convinced Rozelle and the more-enlightened team owners that it was time to permanently expand the playoffs. Which the NFL did in 1967 after the addition of the expansion New Orleans Saints brought league membership to a neat and tidy 16 teams. Motivated by Colts-Packers, Rozelle introduced a radical idea for the '67 campaign, with the two conferences (East and West) each divided into four-team divisions (the Capitol and Century Divisions in the East, the Central and Coastal Divisions in the West), and an expanded playoff format consisting of a pair of conference title games before the league championship encounter, which would precede the Super Bowl vs. the AFL champion of the day. The expanded playoffs were an immediate hit, and the AFL even followed suit in its last season before the merger in 1969, when expanding its playoffs to include the second-place teams from the East and West Divisions. That's how the AFL ended up with two Western teams, Oakland and Kansas City, squaring off in the '69 title game after the championship battle had been drawn along East vs. West lines for the previous nine years. For the record, the Chiefs and Houston Oilers were the "extra" AFL playoff qualifiers in '69. Hank Stram's Kansas City would go on to beat Joe Namath's Jets in the first round by a 13-6 count at windy Shea Stadium, then conquer Raiders 17-7 in Oakland to win the final AFL title before upsetting Minnesota in the Super Bowl, technically becoming the first "wildcard" Super Bowl winner, although that label would not be affixed until the two leagues would officially merge in 1970.

Of all of the changes brought about by the merger (which included the Browns, Colts, and Steelers moving from the old NFL into the AFL, which would be re-christened as the AFC), none caught the public's fancy quite as much as Rozelle's "wildcard" idea, which was given the aforementioned test run in '69 by the AFL (of which Rozelle was also the commish before the merger) but was to be a permanent addition to the NFL postseason calendar when the specifics of the merger were first announced in the spring of 1969. The public and sporting press mostly endorsed the concept from the outset, as the best non-division winners in each conference (divided into three divisions post-merger) would be granted the final two postseason slots.

We have long thought, however, that the wildcard concept was enhanced significantly by developments in that first merger season of 1970, which we at TGS still believe remains the most fascinating and entertaining pro football campaign of our lifetime. It was the season of George Blanda's heroics and Tom Dempsey's 63-yard field goal. And the "inter-conference" games that year added new intrigue, especially since most of the regional antagonists (Jets-Giants, 49ers-Raiders, Rams-Chargers, Cowboys-Oilers, and Chiefs-Cardinals) would be squaring off during the course of the season, plus the beginning of the Browns-Bengals rivalry (with the deep Paul Brown connections) in the newly-formed AFC Central, while the new Monday Night Football package on ABC became an instant hit. And the specifics of the crackling NFC playoff chase that year helped Rozelle's "wildcard" concept to near-universal acceptance from the outset as well.

To no one's surprise, the NFC, despite losing the previous two Super Bowls to the then-known AFL, was the stronger of the two conferences in 1970, confirmed in the opening weekend when the Vikings struck a blow for the NFC by avenging their Super Bowl loss from eight months earlier against the Chiefs, winning the featured opening-day battle 27-10. Although the Vikings were missing some of their personality from 1969, as QB Joe Kapp, the reigning NFL MVP, continued as a holdout; Kapp would eventually be sent to the equivalent of football Siberia at the time, the then-woeful Boston Patriots, who played their home games that season at Harvard Stadium in Cambridge. Meanwhile, Joe Schmidt's Lions, who emerged as a menacing contender in 1969 when finishing 9-4-1, opened more eyes when routing the Packers, 40-0, in the opener at Lambeau Field. The result seemed to confirm the demise of the aging Packers, still with several of the same components (including QB Bart Starr) from Vince Lombardi's last Super Bowl winner three years earlier. But the Pack even had a few high moments during the season, including a shock 13-10 upset win over the mighty Vikings in Week Three at Milwaukee, a result keyed by Dave Hampton's 101-yard kick return TD in the 4th Q.

Meanwhile, for much of the campaign it appeared as if the St. Louis Cardinals might be the league's best team. During a General Sherman-like march at midseason, the Cards pitched three shutouts in a row, blanking the Oilers 44-0, the Patriots 31-0, and then Dallas by a 38-0 count in a memorable Monday night game in which the late Don Meredith moaned constantly from the ABC telecast booth about the beating his old team was absorbing. Another trio of non-playoff teams from 1969, the Giants, 49ers and Lions, were then full-fledged contenders as well, with San Francisco, led by QB John Brodie in what would be an MVP campaign, finally appearing to fulfill the promise it had failed to realize in previous seasons.

The NFC playoff chase evolved into a 7-team dogfight for the four available postseason slots, right up to the final weekend. George Allen's Rams and the rival 49ers were going toe-to-toe in the West, the Vikings clear in the Central but the Lions very much in the wildcard picture, with the Cardinals, Giants, and Cowboys all thundering down the stretch in the East. The latter appeared to be St. Louis' to lose until the Big Red stumbled in December, losing at Detroit, at home to the Giants, and 28-27 in the finale at Washington when normally-reliable PK Jim Bakken missed a chip-shot FG in the final moments, eliminating the Cards from the postseason equation.

For a while, it then seemed as if the Giants, led by QB Fran Tarkenton, were going to win the East; especially after a 34-17 win at Busch Stadium over the fading Cards in Week 13 opened the door for the G-Men to win the division as long as they could beat the Rams at Yankee Stadium on the final day of the regular season. But George Allen's team, needing a win to stay alive in the West, throttled the Giants, 31-3, effectively ending New York's playoff hopes. At 9-5, New York was thus bypassed by Detroit, a 20-0 winner over the Pack (the second Detroit blanking of Green Bay that season) to claim the wildcard, and Dallas, which had been surging since the 38-0 loss to the Cardinals but won the East by winning five in a row to close the regular season, with depleted Houston not offering much resistance to Dallas in a 52-10 Cowboy win on closing day. Rather incredibly, the Cowboys' "Doomsday Defense" had not allowed a TD in its final four regular-season games. Meanwhile, after beating the Giants earlier in the day, the Rams needed the Raiders to beat their cross-bay rival 49ers later that afternoon to give them, and not San Francisco, the NFC West title, but the 49ers took away most of the mystery in the early going en route to a 38-7 romp to sew up the West.

There was also great concern heading into the last week of the regular season that a coin flip might have to determine the NFC wildcard rep. All it would have taken was a win by the Giants to force Dallas and Detroit into a "heads or tails" call for the wildcard spot. Fortunately (though maybe not for the Giants), we didn't have to endure that scenario. In subsequent years, more extensive tiebreaker procedures were set in place to prevent the possibility of a coin flip deciding a playoff participant.

The first official "wildcard teams" in 1970 were thus the Lions (NFC) and Dolphins (AFC), the latter emerging as an immediate contender upon the arrival of HC Don Shula from Baltimore in one of the more interesting developments of the preceding offseason. The first official "wildcard game" featured Detroit at Dallas in what remains one of the more-unique playoff encounters we can remember, if only for the extremely odd 5-0 scoreline (!) in the contest. As noted earlier, the Cowboys had surged late with five straight wins after that second St. Louis debacle, fueled mostly by their aforementioned "Doomsday Defense." featuring Bob Lilly, Chuck Howley, Mel Renfro, and other names familiar in Dallas football lore. The Lions, however, were potent, outscored only by West Division champ San Francisco, and boasting a well-balanced attack that featured a pair of QBs, mobile Greg Landry and the more traditional pocket-passing Bill Munson, with an explosive ground game paced by RBs Mel Farr and Altie Taylor, and dangerous receiving targets such as TE Charlie Sanders and a pair of deep-threat wideouts, Larry Walton and Earl McCullough, who ran on record-breaking relay teams at Southern Cal with none other than O.J. Simpson. The game would be played at the old Cotton Bowl, announced on CBS by Frank Gleiber and Frank Gifford, the latter in his last NFL telecast for that network before moving to ABC and the Monday Night Football booth the next year.

Dallas, however, was reducing its games to the most basic of elements in its 1970 stretch drive that also a included a win by another oddball score of 6-2 at Cleveland in the penultimate week of the season. Although QB Roger Staubach (then in his second year) was available, HC Tom Landry was sticking with Craig Morton in the playoffs (Roger the Dodger would not take over as the full-time starter until midway in the 1971 campaign). Morton's considerable postseason struggles (he completed only 4 of 18 passes against the Lions) did not cost the Cowboys until the Super Bowl vs. Baltimore; against Detroit, Morton simply spent the majority of his afternoon handing the ball off to rookie HB Duane Thomas and FB Walt Garrison, who paced a ground assault that gained 209 yards. Detroit, which netted only 7 first downs all day as it was effectively throttled by the Doomsday Defense, could not mount a serious threat until the final minute, when the drama became heavy after Munson hit McCullough with a 39-yard bomb on a 4th-down play to move deep into Cowboy territory. The ever-alert Renfro, however, then picked off Munson near the goal-line and Dallas averted defeat.

And that's how the NFL "wildcard games" were officially christened, 40 years ago.

Through 1977, wildcards were the 4th playoff seed in each conference, and there were no "bye" weeks in the playoffs until the week before the Super Bowl. The introduction of a second wildcard team from each conference and the "wildcard round" coincided with the NFL expanding its regular-season schedule from 14 to 16 games (and playoff entrants from 8 to 10) in '78. For the next twelve seasons, those wildcard teams would face off against each other before the winners would advance to join the division champions from the AFC & NFC in the round of 8. There were changes again in 1990, when a third wildcard team was added to each conference, upping the total number of postseason participants to 12. This also doubled the number of games in wildcard weekend (from 2 to 4), as then only the top two division winners from each conference would get a "bye" in the first round, and the division winner with the worst record was thrown in with the wildcard teams in the initial playoff weekend. When the NFL reconfigured its divisions (from 6 to 8) in 2002, the wildcard round wasn't fundamentally altered. Although there would technically be only two wildcards (as opposed to three), there would still be the same four games on wildcard weekend, which then would feature the two division winners with the worst records along with two wildcard entries from each conference.

The wildcard round has produced many more memorable games than that tedious 5-0 Detroit-Dallas battle in 1970, such as Buffalo's remarkable rally from a 35-3 deficit behind backup QB Frank Reich to overtake the Oilers in OT, 41-38, in 1992. The Bills were involved on the other end of a wildcard-round heart-stopper in 1999, victim of Tennessee's "Music City Miracle" 22-16 win, while San Francisco won a couple of hard-to-forget first-round thrillers at home against the Packers in 1998 (30-27 in a memorable Steve Young vs. Brett Favre clash) and Giants in 2002 (39-38). Last season, Green Bay and Arizona engaged in the wildest playoff shootout in NFL history, the Packers making a hurricane-like rally to force OT before a fluky fumble-return TD by LB Karlos Dansby gave the Cards a 51-45 win. The occasional wildcard team has also ended up catching fire in the playoffs and has gone all of the way to win the Super Bowl, including the 1997 Broncos, 2000 Ravens, 2005 Steelers, and 2007 Giants (as well as the '69 Chiefs and '80 Raiders).

Results-wise, there have been a few trends to note in wildcard games that differ from later playoff rounds. In particular, underdogs have more than held their own in these first-round games (a departure from division round and conference title action), especially the shorter-priced (1-3 point) dogs that stand 24-17-2 vs. the number since '78, including 7-3 the last three years. Home dogs are usually rare in playoff action, but there will be two of them this weekend, and they're a noteworthy 11-3 vs. the number in first-round games since '78. Some insiders believe the absence of the top two conference seeds in the wildcard round has contributed to better overall underdog mark than in subsequent rounds, but it's worth noting that one-sided results are still fairly common in the first-round games, with nine of 20 contests since 2005 being decided by 14 points or more, as have close to half of all games (46 of 102) since the wildcard round was introduced in 1978. "Totals" results are almost equally split since 1990 ("unders" leading 20-19-1), although all four games went "over" a year ago.

Following are the point-spread results for wildcard playoff games since 1978 (excluding the 1982 "strike" season, when all 16 playoff teams participated in first-round games).

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES SINCE 1978

CATEGORY...VS. POINTS
1-3 pt. dogs...24-17-2
3 1/2-6 1/2 pt. dogs...18-16-1
7-pt. or more dogs...11-12
Home dogs...11-3
Road dogs... 42-42-3

Margins of victory (102 total games)-21 games have been decided by 1-3 points, 22 games by 4-7 points, 13 games by 8-13 points, and 46 games have been decided by 14 points or more.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 07:38 PM

Books finish strong
January 3, 2011

The new year started out great for the bettors as everything they played on New Year's day turned to gold. The bowl games went well for them with all six games going the public’s way, four favorites and two underdogs. One of the favorites, Florida, got a gift wrapped pick-six with 55 seconds to go in a 30-24 game that Penn State was covering the 7 ½-points. Later it was the underdog the public liked, Wisconsin plus-3, missing the two-point conversion with two minutes to go keeping the game at 21-19 and a gift cover. Stuff like that rarely happens an season, let alone one single day.

However, once the NFL Sunday rolled around the next day, it was apparent this wasn’t really a new year or age dawning on bettors across the state. It was the same unpredictable season from 2010 that had seen only two profitable weeks from the first 16 weeks. Yes, it was technically a new year and the terrific opening day to the year in the bowl games proves it, but it was still Week 17 of the 2010 season and more of the same was about to come.

In perhaps one of the most strenuous NFL weeks of the year for the bookmaker, all their attention to detail, rumors, coaching plans and player status paid off as they showed a small win for the week where the favorites and underdogs finshed even at 8-8. With all the scenarios of teams trying to get in to the playoffs and a handful of meaningless games, there appeared to be somewhat of an opportunity to turn the tables on the sportsbooks. Information is the key to everything in the NFL line, the strongest, sturdiest line in all of sports. Many of the Week 17 lines were weak with not a lot of confidence put into them making many of last week's spreads as strong as an Arena Football line.

After the early games -- where the favorites went 5-3 -- it looked like the weak lines would favor the bettors. The Patriots had everything sewn up in the AFC and were expected to rest quarterback Tom Brady and many key players after a few series which was why the line was only minus-4. Had the game been played in Week 10, the Patriots would have been 7 ½-point favorites. Brady did eventually come out of the game, but not until the third quarter when the Pats already had a comfortable 31-0 lead.

Two games that had some meaning went quite easily for the favored side with the Steelers and Falcons crushing their opponents much to the bettors delight. The Jets didn’t have much to play for, thus pulled QB Mark Sanchez very early and didn’t use their running back tandem, yet cruised to an easy 38-8 win over the Bills in a game that closed with the Jets minus-1.

Those four games were weighted public games that showed a mounting risk for the late games that included all the liability from the previous days bowl games. They needed a little help in the late games and they got it.

After the Falcons wrapped up the NFC with an early win, the Bears had nothing to play for and that expectation had the line built in where the Packers were 11-point favorites. Without the scenarios and implications in place, the Packers may have been minus-4 ½ for this game, but with nothing to gain from the win, it was expected that Lovie Smith would rest his players. However, the Bears-Packers rivalry won out and Smith played all his key players throughout with hopes of knocking the hated Packers out of the playoffs. The Bears made a game of it and lost in the final seconds with a Jay Cutler interception, but covered the spread with a final score of 10-3.

Another popular play was the Giants laying four points at Washington. The Giants were hoping for the Bears to play well and knock the Packers out so they could get in to the playoffs. There was no doubt that they were scoreboard watching because they seemed to have lost that zip in their step when they saw the Packers up 10-3 and subsequently gave up a late long bomb, back door cover, to Rex Grossman.

A popular two team parlay had the Texans hooked up to the Colts. Had the Jaguars beat the Texans and the Colts lost, Jacksonville would be in. All the Colts had to do was win. With the Jaguars starting quarterback and running back out, laying up to 5-points with Houston seemed like a great deal and it was, one of the few late winners for the public. But the Colts got into a battle with Tennessee as 9-point favorites and were never in any situation to cover as they barely won 23-20 on a late field goal.

The win on the day became collectively comfirmed by the sportsbooks when the Seahawks beat the Rams in the late game. Seahawks backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst -- the reason many bet the Rams -- played a very consevative, but effective game in getting a 16-6 win. Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start next week's home game against the Saints, a game where New Orleans is a 10-point favorite. Can't say I've ever seen a road favorite like that before.

We can finally wash our hands clean of the regular season and focus on the playoffs where the favorites tend to be stronger. For the bookmakers, congratulations on having your best season ever. Hopefully there will be rewards with bonuses in store from the big bosses for your major contributions to the casino’s bottom line in the last quarter. While bonuses spurred by bettors losses doesn’t make the public feel too well, just know that this season was an anomaly. For all the accolades the Sports Book Directors received from their bosses in 2010, the next losing day will have the bosses asking “How could we lose” with 2010 long gone in the review mirror.

Good luck to the bettors out there in getting the bosses to fret a little bit in the future. Have a Happy, winning New Year!

So What With The Seahawks!

Never have we seen mediocrity rewarded so much in the NFL as we have with the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks making the playoffs. Gaylord Focker -- and his ninth place ribbons -- is even ashamed of the Seahawks accomplishments. However, everyone knew the game and how to play it and Seattle took care of business when they had to, even though it took them a few weeks to seal the deal. So while the Giants and Buccaneers sit at home for the playoffs with 10 wins a piece, and the Seahawks host a playoff game, let us not be upset with the Seahawks, but rather wonder why the other teams couldn’t handle their business when they knew the situation. The Giants had every opportunity to control their own destiny the last two weeks against the Eagles and Packers while Tampa Bay blew a golden opportunity to control their fate by losing a pivotal home game to Detroit three weeks ago.

The Messiah Returns

The Broncos have won only one playoff game since the John Elway era ended, so they’ve decided to start a new Elway era by bringing him back into the organization as Vice President of Operations. The Hall of Fame quarterback will head all matters for the team and his first duty will be getting a new a new head coach. First on the list is his alma mater’s current head coach, Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh. Should Harbaugh be turn down the offer, look for Elway to bring in his back-up from his playing days, Gary Kubiak, who is likely to be let go by the Texans. He'll also be in charge of the Broncos draft where this year they will be picking second overall.

**Ldawg** · 01-03-2011, 08:56 PM

Thx SDB for the write ups, I appreciate all the work that you put into it ! The Benjamin's on NHL and CBB ain't bad either !

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 07:18 PM

NFL Playoff Odds: Saints huge chalk at Seattle

It’s not often a home team in the NFL playoffs is a 10 ½-point underdog. But the Seattle Seahawks aren’t just any team. They are the worst division winner in NFL history.

The Seahawks, the league’s first sub-.500 division winner, is plus 10 ½ hosting New Orleans in a wild-card matchup Saturday at 1:30 p.m. PT on NBC. The ‘over/under’ is 44 ½.

It’s not just that Seattle took advantage of a terrible NFC West to win the division with a 7-9 mark. It’s how bad the Seahawks are.

The Seahawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games. They’ve yielded at least 33 points in seven of those 10 games.

Only one of the Seahawks’ victories this season was against a playoff team and that was Chicago in Week 6 before the Bears got hot.

Opponents outscored Seattle by 97 points and outgained them by 885 yards. Seattle’s nine defeats were by an average of three touchdowns.

New Orleans coach Sean Payton may say all the right things about not taking Seattle lightly, but a joke going around was that Payton might be tempted to rest his starters treating this game as a bye week.

Except for special teams, the NFC South Division champion Saints rate huge edges on the Seahawks.

Drew Brees is in the MVP discussion again after finishing third in passing yards with 4,620 and second in touchdown throws with 33. Brees should light up a Seattle defense that finished 27th in yardage and 27th in pass defense.

The Saints are banged-up at running back with Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory each ‘questionable’ with ankle injuries. Ivory was on crutches at Saints headquarters on Monday. The Saints signed journeyman running back DeShawn Wynn this week perhaps an indication Ivory won’t play.

Brees could get Marques Colston, his top wide receiver, back, though. Colston missed Week 17 after getting his knee scoped.

The Saints have failed to cover six of the past eight times they’ve been favored on the road. The Seahawks, though, are 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been an underdog.

Seattle was 31st in rushing and 28th in total offense. Pete Carroll has yet to decide on whom to start at quarterback, banged-up Matt Hasselbeck or career backup Charlie Whitehurst. Hasselbeck missed last Sunday night with a hip injury.

The 35-year-old Hasselbeck clearly is on the downside of his career. He had a 12-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 10 turnovers in his last four games before getting injured in Week 16.

Whitehurst has made only two starts in his six-year NFL career. The Seahawks do not pass protect well and Whitehurst has been criticized for having happy feet in which he breaks out of the pocket too soon when feeling pressure.

The Seahawks’ offensive line has been unsettled all season due to injuries and they’ll be missing Chester Pitts (concussion) on Saturday along with backup tight end Chris Baker. Pitts started five games.

Brees and the Saints’ high-powered offense, which ranks sixth in yards averaging 372.5 per game, draw most of the attention. But New Orleans’ defense surrendered the fourth fewest yards and was seventh in points allowed at 19.2 per contest.

The two teams met on Nov. 21 and the Saints defeated the Seahawks, 34-19, covering as 11-point home favorites. The combined 53 points went ‘over’ the 44 ½-point total. Brees was 29-for-43 passing for 382 yards and four touchdowns as the Saints rolled up 494 yards. Colston had eight receptions for 113 yards and two touchdowns.

The ‘over’ has covered in eight of Seattle’s last nine games.

There’s a 40 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 40s and little wind.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 07:19 PM

NFL Playoff Betting: Jets, Colts meet again

Last year, the New York Jets came out of nowhere to make it to the AFC Championship Game, where they were defeated by the Indianapolis Colts for the right to go to Super Bowl XLIV. This year, on the first day of the tournament to win the Lombardi Trophy, the teams will lock horns in NFL betting action once again at the exact same venue, Lucas Oil Field.

NBC has the broadcast for this wild-card matchup that kicks at 5 p.m. PT.

The story is basically the same for the Jets at this point. The team had a fantastic season at 11-5, but is stuck as the No. 6 seed in the playoffs once again. Their defense isn't exactly sneaking up on teams any longer, nor is the play of Pro-Bowler Darrelle Revis. But this remains a unit that is absolutely going to try to make life a living hell on the Indy offense for the third time over the course of the last two seasons.

Head coach Rex Ryan's 'D' only allowed 291.4 YPG this year, ranking No. 3 in the NFL, and the team ranked in the Top 7 in the league in every major defensive category.

Where the Colts might find themselves getting a tad surprised is thanks to the New York offense this year. Assuming that QB Mark Sanchez really is healthy and that this sore shoulder isn't going to threaten his level of play this week, the Jets really do have a solid offense with plenty of stars. "The Sanchise" had a rock solid season, throwing for 3,278 yards and 17 TDs against just 13 picks, all numbers of which he improved from his rookie campaign.

It also helps that he has had a significantly better crop of receivers to throw the pigskin to. Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller all had at least 52 receptions this year, and the three combined for over 2,200 yards between them.

LaDainian Tomlinson also caught 52 passes for 368 yards out of the backfield in his resurgent 2010. "LT" also had 914 yards and six TDs on the ground, and though his season wasn't quite that of what we used to expect, it was a marked improvement from what the San Diego Chargers thought he was capable of when they let him go following last season.

The Colts have really fought every trial and tribulation in the book this year. Yet when push came to shove, they were still the AFC South champs and are still in a prime position to make a run at the Super Bowl once again.

Quarterback Peyton Manning set the NFL record for most completions in a season with 450, throwing for 4,700 yards and 33 TDs against 17 picks in the process. The amazing part about these numbers for the perennial Pro-Bowler is that he did it this year with only one receiver or running back playing in all 16 games. Reggie Wayne caught 111 passes for 1,355 yards and six scores, but he was the only man to play in even 15 games for the men in white and blue.

The running game has found its way again all of a sudden, which looks eerily similar to the situation the Colts were in when they won their first Super Bowl out of this very same No. 3 seed. Dominic Rhodes has suddenly provided 172 yards on the ground in just three games back with his old mates, while Joseph Addai is healthy again and has a respectable 89 yards in two games since coming back in Week 16 from a shoulder injury that cost him half of his season.

These two teams split the battle on the NFL odds last year, with New York ending the Colts' perfect regular season with a 29-15 triumph in Week 16, and Indy snaring the 30-17 victory when it counted most in the playoffs. Last year though, the upstart Jets were eight point underdogs of the oddsmakers in the AFC Championship Game.

This season, the NFL lines reflect New York having a lot more of a chance to win this one, as it is only a 2 ½-point underdog at Bookmaker.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 07:20 PM

NFL Playoffs: Falcons draw top NFC odds

The Atlanta Falcons are not the defending world champions like the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons don’t have a player as charismatic and dangerous as Michel Vick, or a glorified team history such as the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.

What the Falcons do have his home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Atlanta earned it by virtue of a 13-3 record, 11-5 ATS. The Falcons will have two weeks to rest and then meet the lowest seeded team to advance out of the wild-card round.

It’s the first time in 30 years the Falcons are the top seed. They last captured the NFC South Division title in 2004.

Bodog lists Atlanta as 9/5 favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, the top odds in the conference ahead of the Chicago Bears (7/2) and New Orleans (4/1). The Falcons are tied with the Steelers at 11/2 to win the Super Bowl, both teams trailing the 2/1 New England Patriots.

The NFC appears more wide open than the AFC where New England has been dominant for the past eight weeks.

The Falcons generate respect for all their success, but not awe. That’s because they’re not flashy, just a solid well-rounded, stable team with a strong home field.

Atlanta is 20-4 under third-year coach Mike Smith inside the Georgia Dome, going 16-4 ATS. The straight-up record is even better at 20-2 since Matt Ryan became Atlanta’s quarterback. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 15 consecutive games.

The Falcons are 10-4 ATS as home ‘chalk’ and have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been favored.

Ryan, wide receiver Roddy White and running back Michael Turner all rate among the best at their respective positions. Tight end Tony Gonzalez, a future Hall of Famer, is past his prime but still effective. He caught 70 passes and scored six touchdowns, third-highest on the team.

White finished second to Denver’s Brandon Lloyd in receiving yards with 1,389 giving it a good go for anyone who played a prop on White to lead the league in receiving yards at odds of 24/1. White broke Terance Mathis’ team record of 111 catches in 1994 by hauling in 115 passes.

Turner placed fifth in rushing with 1,304 yards. He was 18/1 to lead the NFL in rushing.

Ryan, in just his third season, threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns with nine interceptions.

Defensive end John Abraham placed second in sacks with 13. The Falcons’ top defensive player, though, may have been middle linebacker Curtis Lofton. He paced Atlanta with 118 tackles, while also recording two sacks, three forced fumbles and an interception.

The Falcons clinched the No. 1 seed rolling past Carolina, 31-10, as 14-point home favorites. Atlanta lost two defensive players in that victory as linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (shoulder) and cornerback Brian Williams (knee) both went out. Weatherspoon is the team’s No. 4 linebacker while Williams is the Falcons’ nickel back.

There’s a good chance the Falcons could face their division rivals the Saints in their next game. The Saints are heavy favorites against Seattle while Green Bay, the No. 6 seed, is a road underdog to Philadelphia.

The Falcons defeated the Saints, 27-24 in overtime, as three-point road underdogs in Week 3. The Saints got their revenge a week ago ago on Monday night winning, 17-14, as two-point road ‘dogs.

New Orleans held the Falcons to a season-low 215 yards. Ryan, White and Turner all struggled White was held to a season-low three catches. Turner could manage only 48 yards on the ground and a 2.8 per carry average. He had averaged 104.6 yards rushing and 4.1 yards per attempt during the previous five weeks.

The Falcons should be especially fired-up to face the Saints as after their loss to them several New Orleans players took pictures of the Falcons’ team logo and defensive tackle Remi Ayodele said he urinated on the logo.

The Saints have won eight of the past 11 games versus the Falcons.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 11:38 AM

Saints bring depleted backfield to Seattle

NFC Wild Card Playoffs
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-5)
at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-9)

Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -10.5, Total: 45

The Saints begin their defense of last year’s championship when they travel to Seattle to open the playoff season on Saturday afternoon. The Seahawks are the first NFL team to win a division with a losing record (7-9). New Orleans has some key injuries, especially to its running game, where Chris Ivory (foot) and Pierre Thomas (ankle) are both on I.R. and done for the season. TE Jimmy Graham (ankle) and FS Malcolm Jenkins (knee) are also expected to sit out Saturday’s game. Seattle also has a key injury with starting QB Matt Hasselbeck bothered by a hip injury, but he is expected to start against New Orleans.

Drew Brees has had another great season with 4,620 passing yards, 33 TD and 22 INT. He threw for season highs in both yards (382) and TD (four) in the Saints’ 34-19 win over Seattle in Week 11. Two of those touchdowns tosses were to WR Marques Colston, who finished the day with eight catches for 113 yards. Colston (84 rec, 1,023 yds, 7 TD this year) has been limited in practice with a knee injury, but he is expected to play at Seattle. WR Robert Meachem (44 rec, 638 yds, 5 TD) also had two touchdown grabs against Seattle and has gained 100+ receiving yards in two of his past five games.

Reggie Bush will assume most of the rushing workload, and Julius Jones will also see some carries. Bush has only carried the ball 36 times this year for 150 yards and a 4.2 YPC average, but he did have his best game Week 17 versus Tampa Bay when he rushed for 70 yards on nine carries and caught five passes for 55 more yards. Jones has been mostly ineffective this season with 60 rushes for 223 yards (3.7 YPC) including 11 carries for 22 yards in his past five games. With Graham likely being out, the tight-end duties will go to two other injured players -- Jeremy Shockey (groin) and David Thomas (knee) who have combined for 71 catches for 627 yards and 5 TD this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, New Orleans is a mediocre 16th in the NFL defending the run (112 YPG), but rank fourth in the NFL in passing defense (194 YPG). However, the Saints have a league-low nine interceptions on the year, which is a staggering number compared to their 26 INT in 2009, which was the third-highest total in the NFL. New Orleans carries a minus-5 turnover rating for the year (23 takeaways, 28 giveaways), which is quite a difference from its +11 rating during its Super Bowl season.

Hasselbeck had his best game of the season when he faced New Orleans on Nov. 21, completing 32-of-44 passes for 366 yards and a touchdown. WR Mike Williams (team-high 751 receiving yards) caught six passes for 109 yards that game. Hasselbeck needs another strong performance to keep the double-digit-underdog Seahawks in this game, because the running game doesn’t figure to provide a solution to moving the football. Seattle ranks second-to-last in rushing offense (89 YPG) and only gained 58 yards on 17 carries at New Orleans in Week 11. However, the Seahawks did find running room in last week’s playoff-clinching win over St. Louis, gaining 141 yards on 35 carries. Marshawn Lynch led the way with 75 yards on 20 rushes.

Seattle’s defense has been lit up all year, ranking 27th against the pass (250 YPG), 21st against the run (119 YPG) and 25th in scoring defense (25.4 PPG). The Seahawks have allowed 34 or more points in five of their past seven games, including the loss to New Orleans. Seattle has a minus-9 turnover rating (21 takeaways, 30 giveaways) which is the fifth-worst rating in the NFL.

These teams have split their past six meetings (both SU and ATS) since 1997. Hasselbeck has won his past four home postseason starts, while the Saints have never won a playoff game on the road (0-3). But the FoxSheets give two highly-rated reasons why both these streaks will end and why New Orleans will win big and cover the 10.5-point spread.

SEATTLE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 12.1, OPPONENT 35.8 - (Rating = 4*).

SEATTLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 10.6, OPPONENT 32.3 - (Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend advises bettors to play the Over on Saturday:

SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season. The average score was SEATTLE 23.4, OPPONENT 30.0 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 11:41 AM

Colts host Jets in AFC Championship rematch

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
NEW YORK JETS (11-5)
at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Indianapolis -2.5, Total: 44.5

Last year’s AFC Championship participants meet in the first round of the playoffs this season as Indianapolis hosts the Jets on Saturday night. Peyton Manning threw three touchdown passes as the Colts overcame an 11-point deficit to beat New York 30-17 in the conference championship game. Both teams have some injuries woes, but the Jets are in much better shape with QB Mark Sanchez (shoulder), CB Antonio Cromartie (groin), FS Eric Smith (concussion) and OT Damien Woody (knee) all expected to play. The Colts injury outlook is much more bleak as they could be missing three key defensive players in LB Clint Session (elbow), CB Kelvin Hayden (neck) and DT Daniel Muir (chest).

Sanchez only played one series in last week’s win over Buffalo and said his shoulder is fully healed. Sanchez played pretty well in last year’s playoff loss to Indy, completing 17-of-30 passes for 257 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. This year he faces a weaker Colts’ defense that has allowed 346 total YPG in the past nine games. Sanchez also has the benefit of throwing to Santonio Holmes, whose last playoff appearance was a Super Bowl-MVP winning performance (9 rec, 131 yds, 1 TD). And considering Indianapolis allows 127 rushing YPG (25th in the NFL), the Jets should be able to run the football too. LaDainian Tomlinson (914 rush yds, 6 TD) and Shonn Greene (766 rush yds, 2 TD) are both averaging more than four yards per carry in helping the Jets establish the fourth-best ground game in the NFL (148 YPG).

The Jets have really ratcheted up their pass rush recently with 19 sacks in the past six games, and will need to continue that in hopes of stopping Manning. The Jets rank sixth in the league in passing defense (201 YPG) and head coach Rex Ryan will employ CB Darrelle Revis to shadow Colts top receiver Reggie Wayne all over the field. Ryan is just 1-5 against the Colts as a head coach/defensive coordinator, allowing Manning to throw 12 TD and just 2 INT in the six games.

The Colts certainly have the edge in postseason experience as they have tied an NFL record with their ninth straight playoff berth. Manning threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 23-20 win over Tennessee, to give him 4,700 passing yards and 33 TD for the season. These numbers are remarkable considering all the injuries to virtually every significant offensive skill player on the team, including two players currently on injured reserve –- TE Dallas Clark and WR Austin Collie. If Wayne is shut down by Revis, look for Pierre Garcon to have big game against the hurting Cromartie. Garcon has 29 catches for 306 yards and five touchdowns in his past five games this year, and caught 21 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns in three playoff games last postseason.

The Colts have not been able to keep defenses honest because of a ground game that has averaged only 93 rushing YPG, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. RB Joseph Addai (4.3 YPC this year) is as healthy as he’s been all season, but it won’t be easy to gain yards on an excellent Jets run defense ranking third in the league with 91 rushing YPG allowed.

Indianapolis is 9-4 SU when hosting the Jets since 1992, but the teams have split those matchups evenly ATS (6-6-1). The FoxSheets provide two anti-Jets reasons to expect Indianapolis to win again on its home turf.

Play Against - Any team (NY JETS) - good rushing team (125-150 RY/G) against a poor rushing defense (125-150 RY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. (28-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road teams (NY JETS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. (46-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.7%, +24 units. Rating = 2*).

This eye-opening, six-star FoxSheets trend strongly encourages playing the Over on Saturday:

NY JETS are 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. The average score was NY JETS 26.7, OPPONENT 22.8 - (Rating = 6*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 11:45 AM

Ravens favored on the road at Kansas City

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4)
at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -3, Total: 40.5

The Ravens look to extend their current four-game win streak as they travel to Kansas City for a playoff matchup Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs are also playing well, winning five of their final seven games, and have a chip on their shoulder being tabbed as home underdogs.

Baltimore has done a lot of things well in putting together four straight wins. It is outrushing opponents by an average of 133 to 83, carrying a +9 turnover margin and allowing just 17.3 PPG, including 8.5 PPG in the past two wins. RB Ray Rice has 1,776 total yards this season, which ranks third in the NFL. He has also rushed for 107 YPG in the past three contests. Although Baltimore ranks 20th in the NFL in passing (208 YPG), QB Joe Flacco has had a strong season with 25 TD and just 10 INT, including five picks in his first two games of the season. Flacco will become just the third QB since the 1970 NFL merger to start in three straight playoff seasons to start his career. Both Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason have been reliable targets for Flacco, producing identical numbers in yards per catch (13.1) and receiving TD (seven).

But the strength of the Ravens remains in the defense, which ranks third in the league in points allowed (16.9 PPG) and fifth in rushing defense (94 YPG). But they do have some injury concerns. Safety Ed Reed leads the NFL with eight interceptions, but has been bothered by a ribs injury. Reed is expected to play, but DT Haloti Ngota (thigh), LB Terrell Suggs (knee) and DBs Josh Wilson (shoulder) and SS Tom Zbikowski (back) are all questionable for the playoff opener. Baltimore has not lost a game by more than five points this season. The Ravens have played 12 games where the final score’s margin was seven points or less, going 8-4 in those games.

Kansas City is led by RB Jamaal Charles who finished second in the NFL to Houston’s Arian Foster in rushing yards this season with 1,467 on an amazing 6.4 yards per carry. He was also second behind Foster in yards from scrimmage (1,935). During the past six games, Charles has rushed for 619 yards (on 6.8 YPC) and scored five total touchdowns. He is a big reason why Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing (164 YPG) and is third-worst in passing (186 YPG). Matt Cassel has thrown 15 of his 27 TD passes to Dwayne Bowe and has only tossed seven total picks. But Cassel had a rough Week 17 game against Oakland, completing just 11-of-33 passes for 115 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT (19.1 QB rating). The inconsistent Bowe has been battling an illness, but is scheduled to start against Baltimore. Bowe has five 100-yard receiving games this year, and also has seven games of fewer than 70 receiving yards, including four of his past five games. Defensively, Kansas City has been mediocre, ranking 11th in scoring (20.4 PPG), 14th against the run (110 YPG) and 17th against the pass.

Baltimore has won the past two meetings handily, 38-24 in 2009 and 20-10 in 2006, but Kansas City won the previous three meetings from 1999 to 2004. Baltimore has the edge in terms of playoff experience, having made the postseason in each of the past two seasons. The Ravens also know how to win on the road with a 3-2 playoff record in their past five away games. These two FoxSheets trends expect Baltimore to win and cover on Sunday.

John Harbaugh is 20-10 ATS (66.7%, +9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 24.9, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 1*).

KANSAS CITY is 13-29 ATS (31.0%, -18.9 Units) in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992. The average score was KANSAS CITY 20.0, OPPONENT 21.4 - (Rating = 1*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend advises bettors to play the Over:

Play Over - Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. (88-43 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.2%, +40.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 11:46 AM

Eagles try to go 8-1 in last nine playoff openers

NFC Wild Card Playoffs
GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-6)
at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 46

The Eagles look to add to Green Bay’s road woes when the two exciting offenses meet in the NFC Wild Card playoffs Sunday in Philadelphia. The Packers were only 3-5 on the road this season, but the Eagles only went 4-4 at home. Philadelphia ranks second in the NFL in total yards (389 YPG) and are third in points (27.4 PPG), while Green Bay ranks second in the league in scoring defense (15.0 PPG) and fifth in passing defense (194 YPG).

Aaron Rodgers has dealt with a number of injuries to key offensive players this year, but he has still led the Packers to the fifth-best passing offense (258 YPG) and has thrown for 28 TD to just 11 INT. Rodgers has not won a playoff game, but he threw for 423 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s crazy 51-45 wild-card loss in Arizona. Although he led Green Bay to a 27-20 victory in Week 1 of this year, Rodgers had a below-average game with just 188 passing yards, 2 TD and 2 INT. His favorite target all season has been Greg Jennings who has 76 catches for 1,265 yards and 12 touchdowns. Jennings gained 1,082 yards in his final 11 games, which led the league. Green Bay has found little success gaining yards on the ground. The Packers have averaged 97 rushing YPG (25th in NFL) with 10 games of below 100 yards.

The Eagles quarterback, Michael Vick, has also had an incredible season with 3,018 passing yards, 21 TD and just six interceptions in his 12 games this year. He will be making his first playoff start since 2004 when he was with Atlanta. Vick has also run for 676 yards (6.8 YPC) and nine touchdowns to help Philly average 145 rushing YPG (fifth in NFL). LeSean McCoy leads the team with 1,080 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and has also added another 592 yards as a receiver, scoring nine total touchdowns. Philadelphia also has a pair of talented young wideouts with DeSean Jackson (1,056 rec. yds, 8 total TD) and Jeremy Maclin (964 rec. yds, 10 TD) capable of challenging Green Bay’s strong defense.

The Eagles are 7-1 in playoff openers under Andy Reid while the Packers have lost four straight road playoff games. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends expect Philadelphia to win (and cover) again on Sunday afternoon.

Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points. (26-4 since 1983.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (34-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend likes the Over to occur on Sunday:

Play Over - Road teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. (107-55 over the last 10 seasons.) (66%, +46.5 units. Rating = 3*).

**ntorreg88** · 01-08-2011, 03:04 PM

good luck SDB !!

**Ldawg** · 01-08-2011, 03:10 PM

SDB FoxSheets Overs are impressive ... Dawg's taking 3 team parlay on OVR twenty cent line ... Balt-Philly-NYJ games . NYJ Ovr -120 as a back up .

Did I miss the GOY in there ?

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The Bum's NFL Wild Card Weekend -News, Notes + Playoff GOY !

The Bum's NFL Wild Card Weekend -News, Notes + Playoff GOY !

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