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**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 08:20 PM

Boston goes for 8th straight series win over Minnesota

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (9-25)

at BOSTON CELTICS (25-7)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -8, Total: 203

The Celtics will try to extend their seven-game winning streak over Minnesota Monday without former Timberwolves player Kevin Garnett who is out with a calf injury. Boston will have point guard Rajon Rondo who returned to the lineup Sunday after missing seven games with a sprained left ankle. Minnesota’s point guard is also hurting, as Jonny Flynn missed the last game with a sprained right ankle and is listed as day-to-day.

Minnesota is having a rough season at 9-25, but it has won three of the past four games SU and is 7-2 ATS in its past nine contests. Despite its 2-17 SU road record, that mark is a respectable 9-10 ATS. The Wolves shot 51% from the floor in a New Year’s Day win over New Jersey, 103-88. Kevin Love led the way with 23 points and 10 rebounds, which marked his eye-popping 20th straight double-double. Michael Beasley (team-high 21.8 PPG) only scored 10 points against the Nets, after averaging 28.8 PPG in his previous four games.

The Celtics have been scuffling while trying to overcome the big injuries. After winning 14 straight games, Boston is just 2-3 (SU and ATS) in its past five contests. Rondo only had four points in Sunday’s 93-79 win in Toronto, but he dished out eight assists and allowed veterans Paul Pierce (30 points) and Ray Allen (23 points) to carry the scoring load. Rondo had 13 points and 15 assists the last time Boston faced Minnesota, a 122-104 win.

The Celtics are 13-2 SU at home this season, but just 6-8-1 ATS. However, with Rondo back on the floor, Boston should have no trouble scoring on Minnesota’s league-worst defense, allowing 108.9 PPG. This FoxSheets trend sides with Boston to win by more than the eight-point spread.

Play Against - Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less 2 straight games.(92-50 since 1996.) (64.8%, +37 units. Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets also expect the game to finish Over the total:

Play Over - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - playing on back-to-back days, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. (61-32 since 1996.) (65.6%, +25.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Over - Any team (MINNESOTA) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an good defensive team (41.5-43.5%), poor ball handling team (>=16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's). (70-35 since 1996.) (66.7%, +31.5 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 08:21 PM

Heat go for 11th straight road win at Charlotte

MIAMI HEAT (26-9)

at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (11-20)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -9, Total: 189

The Heat seek their 11th straight road win when they travel to Charlotte on Monday. Miami has won 17 of its past 18 games overall, while Charlotte has dropped seven of its past 10 games (both SU and ATS).

Miami is shooting 50.7% during the road win streak, outscoring its opponents by an average score of 105 to 90. LeBron James is averaging 28.5 PPG in the 11 games and Dwyane Wade is pumping in 28.2 PPG in his nine games during the streak.

Miami had to overcome a 20-point deficit at home in Saturday’s 114-107 win over Golden State. James, Wade and Chris Bosh scored 25, 25 and 20 points, respectively, and held the Warriors to 35 second-half points. The Heat last played Charlotte on Nov. 19, winning 95-87. Bosh had 22 points and 11 rebounds in that contest, giving him 27.2 PPG and 11.5 RPG in his past 10 meetings with the Bobcats.

Charlotte’s last game was also against Golden State, a 96-95 home loss on Friday. That was the first defeat in three games for interim coach Paul Silas who replaced the fired Larry Brown on Dec. 22. Stephen Jackson (team-high 18.3 PPG) led Charlotte with 22 points in the defeat and is averaging 25.8 PPG in his past four games.

But the Bobcats will be without their top rebounder as Gerald Wallace (16.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) could miss a few games after suffering an ankle injury in Sunday’s practice. F Tyrus Thomas (11.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG) has missed the past two games with a wrist injury, but is expected to play Monday night. Seldom-used C DeSagana Diop (11.3 MPG) is out with an Achilles injury. Wallace will be replaced in the lineup by his teammate with the same first name, Gerald Henderson. The second-year pro tied a season-high on Friday with 10 points on 5-of-6 shooting and also chipped in six rebounds in 22 minutes of action.

Although Charlotte is 7-1 ATS (4-5 SU) in the past eight meetings with the Heat, these two FoxSheets trends think Miami will win and cover the nine points.

Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games.(83-39 since 1996.) (68%, +40.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games. (88-49 since 1996.) (64.2%, +34.1 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under based on these two trends:

Erik Spoelstra is 42-20 UNDER (67.7% +20.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of MIAMI. The average score was MIAMI 96.6, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Under - Any team (MIAMI) - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=77 shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent.(23-6 since 1996.) (79.3%, +16.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 08:22 PM

Georgetown slight favorite at St. John's Monday

GEORGETOWN HOYAS (12-2)

at ST. JOHN’S RED STORM (9-3)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgetown -3, Total: 142

It’s fair to say that in a conference as deep as the Big East is this season, there are two types of teams. Those that are in the Top 25, and those that are trying to make their mark by beating one of those who are in the Top 25. Monday in Madison Square Garden will feature a matchup of two teams representing both of these categories. That's when the ninth-ranked Georgetown Hoyas travel north to take on a Red Storm team that is doing something that fans of the Johnnies haven’t seen since the Clinton era (Bill, not George), and that is a fast start versus league competition.

First-year coach Steve Lavin has his team off to a 2-0 start in Big East play with both victories coming on the road. You have to go all the way back to ‘99-00, when the Red Storm began conference play at 4-0, for the last time they started off this quickly. Now the team is set to play its first Top 25 team this year, and leading scorer Dwight Hardy (16.3 PPG, 2.5 APG) is looking forward to the challenge: "We're playing a great team in Georgetown, it's going to be a good matchup. They've got some good guards, we've got some good guards."

Hardy has been a workhorse for Lavin. Over his past six games he is averaging 21.8 PPG, after scoring 10.8 PPG over his first six games. Additionally, Hardy played all 40 minutes of Saturday’s 67-65 victory over Providence. Lavin has relied heavily on his most experienced players. The team's three top scorers, as well as two of its top three rebounders, are all seniors. Justin Brownlee (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) is second on the team in scoring, while D.J. Kennedy (12.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is tops in rebounding.

Head coach John Thompson III described his team’s first-half performance Saturday against DePaul as “flat,” adding that, “it felt like we were in quicksand.” That could probably describe the Hoyas opening Big East game against Notre Dame as well, a 69-55 defeat that saw Georgetown shoot 4-for-22 from beyond the arc while only getting to the FT line nine times. Saturday’s victory over DePaul saw a return to form of Georgetown’s big three starting guards, as Austin Freeman and Jason Clark chipped in with 21 apiece, while Chris Wright added 17. While Freeman leads the team in scoring at 19.2 PPG, he is trying to reverse several negative trends against St. John’s. In four previous contests against the Red Storm, Freeman is averaging just 10.0 PPG, and in two games played at Madison Square Garden versus the Johnnies, he has totaled only eight points on 3-of-14 shooting.

Georgetown hopes that this trip to the Garden resembles their last trip there, when they made it to the Big East Championship before losing a heartbreaker to West Virginia. Look for the Hoyas to try and use its league-leading perimeter attack (40.3% three-point FG) to their advantage as they go against a St. John’s team that is the worst in the league at defending the three-pointer (37.6%).

Are the Red Storm back and ready to make it a 3-0 start in league play, or do you need a little more proof? Maybe Monday night's game in the Garden provides the answer to both questions.

This FoxSheets stat shows why Georgetown will win and cover the spread.

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GEORGETOWN) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, playing with one or less days rest. (30-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*).

These two FoxSheets trends side with the Under.

ST. JOHN’S is 25-7 UNDER (78.1%, +17.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997. The average score was ST. JOHN’S 66.8, OPPONENT 66.5 - (Rating = 3*).

ST. JOHN’S is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST. JOHN’S 62.6, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 08:22 PM

Denver goes for 4th win in a row facing Houston

HOUSTON ROCKETS (16-17)

at DENVER NUGGETS (19-13)

Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -7, Total: 218

Denver looks to win its fourth straight win when it hosts Houston on Monday night. The Rockets have won six of eight games, but are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games.

Houston is 10-5 since Dec. 3, but none of those wins have been against a team with a winning record. Kevin Martin is averaging 25.7 PPG on 49% FG in those 10 wins, but those numbers have dipped to 19.0 PPG and 43% FG in the five losses.

Nuggets star forward Carmelo Anthony returned to action Saturday after missing three games to mourn to death of his sister. He only made 6-of-22 shots in the 104-86 win over Sacramento, but he finished with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Anthony has only made 41% of his shots in his career versus Houston, which is the lowest FG Pct. against any opponent. Chauncey Billups scored 78 points during Anthony’s three-game absence and has averaged 25.0 PPG on 59% FG (43-for-73) in his past six games. Denver could also get a boost from the possible return of PF Al Harrington who has missed the past three games with a dislocated thumb. Harrington had 28 points and 10 rebounds at Houston on Oct. 30, when Denver rode out of town with a 107-94 win.

The two teams have split the past eight meetings, with Denver holding a 5-3 ATS advantage. The FoxSheets show two reasons to expect Houston to keep the game closer than seven points.

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Road teams (HOUSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (77-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +30.8 units. Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend also expects the game to finish Under the total:

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON, DENVER) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game). (92-40 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.7%, +48 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 08:23 PM

Kentucky favored by 24 over Penn

PENNSYLVANIA QUAKERS (5-5)

at KENTUCKY WILDCATS (11-2)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kentucky -24, Total: 135

The states of Kentucky and Pennsylvania each carry the designation of being commonwealth states. Each state has a university named after it, and each University fields a men’s basketball team. After that, the similarities between these two schools and their respective teams ends there, and Monday night in Rupp Arena the factors that set these two teams apart, way apart, will be on display on the basketball floor.

The 11th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats are coming off of a 78-63 New Year’s Eve spanking of cross-state rival Louisville in a game which at times did not feel nearly that close. The keys to what may have been Kentucky’s best performance of the season was a lot like the keys to a traditional wedding: something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue. The old in this case would have to be senior center Josh Harrellson, the only senior on this year’s team, whose 23 points and 14 rebounds shredded the Cardinals on the interior. Something new, how about freshman newcomer Brandon Knight, whose 25-point game was a career high for his short career? Something blue? Hello, the visiting uniforms. As far as what was borrowed, the Wildcats went into the way-back machine to produce a shooting effort reminiscent of a Rick Pitino Kentucky squad, hitting on 50% of its shots, nailing nearly 38% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. For John Calipari it was a complete game from his complete team, which in the end left 22,000 fans in Louisville’s brand new KFC Yum! Center almost completely silent.

While Kentucky played the Cardinals as a warm-up, Penn took on the Red Foxes of Marist last Wednesday, with a different result, a 66-57 defeat. It doesn’t take a statistical genius from Penn’s famous Wharton School of Business to know that the following numbers do not bode well for the visitors. The Quakers are scoring on average 63.8 PPG, and are giving up 65.7 PPG. It’s terribly difficult to win when you give up more than you score, and that explains the 5-5 record entering the game. To begin to have a prayer in this game, the Quakers will need to improve upon its less-than-satisfactory performance on the boards. At 27.6 rebounds per game, Penn ranks 344th in Division I. Kentucky on the other hand, averages nearly 41 rebounds a game (19th in nation). The Quakers are led by junior guard Zack Rosen (16.7 PPG, 4.3 APG) and senior Jack Eggleston (13.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG). Freshman guard Miles Cartwright has been a pleasant surprise, scoring 11.5 PPG.

Kentucky has won all four meetings between the schools, including a 67-50 blowout the last time they faced each other in 1999. The FoxSheets give two reasons to expect Kentucky to win and cover the monstrous spread.

KENTUCKY is 29-9 ATS (76.3%, +19.1 Units) after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more since 1997. The average score was KENTUCKY 79.2, OPPONENT 64.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (PENNSYLVANIA) - after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent. (38-16 since 1997.) (70.4%, +20.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-03-2011, 08:24 PM

MSU looks for 7th straight win in Evanston

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (9-4)

at NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (9-2)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -1.5, Total: 142

Michigan State has had its way at Northwestern in recent seasons and hope the trend will continue when the two teams meet on Monday night. The Spartans have won six straight in Evanston by an average of 13.7 points, and each victory has been by double-figures.

The past two meetings have come in Northwestern's conference home openers, a 77-66 Michigan State win two seasons ago and a 91-70 victory last season. Kalin Lucas (14.5 PPG, 41.9% three-point FG) was instrumental in those two triumphs at Northwestern, averaging 19.0 PPG and 6.5 APG. He scored 22.0 PPG in two home-and-away games against the Wildcats last season. Lucas, however, heads into Monday's game struggling to find his shot. He's scoring 12.3 PPG on 36.1% shooting (13-of-36) in his past three contests.

Michigan State defeated Minnesota in its Big Ten opener, 71-62, on Friday after rallying from a six-point halftime deficit. Durrell Summers (15.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 43.7% three-point FG) scored 19 points, his 12th game in double-figures, and Draymond Green (12.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 45.2% three-point FG) added 14 against the Golden Gophers. Summers scored 20.5 PPG and had 8.5 RPG in two games against Northwestern in 2009-10, while Green chipped in with 11.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG.

The Spartans also beat the Wildcats in East Lansing last January, 79-70. But they struggled to contain Northwestern star John Shurna, who had 30.0 PPG on 51.2% shooting in two games. Shurna leads the Big Ten in scoring with 22.2 PPG, but he only had 11 in an 82-69 loss at Purdue on Friday, possibly due to a sprained ankle he suffered against Mount St. Mary's on Dec. 23. Shurna is shooting a blistering 61.8% on three-pointers and has grabbed 5.2 boards per game. Northwestern guard Michael Thompson (15.1 PPG, 4.5 APG), who's second on the team in scoring, had a game-high 18 points against the Boilermakers. But Thompson wasn't at his best versus Michigan State last season with only 7.5 PPG on 25.0% shooting.

Michigan State is 21-2 SU (13-10 ATS) in 23 meetings since 1997, including 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS) at Northwestern. Expect the Spartans to continue their success with another win in Evanston on Monday. This FoxSheets trend likes Michigan State to win and cover the spread.

MICHIGAN ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN ST 77.5, OPPONENT 64.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Five of the past six meetings in Illinois have gone over the total and this FoxSheets four-star trend also expects the game to finish Over the total.

NORTHWESTERN is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NORTHWESTERN 68.3, OPPONENT 69.6 - (Rating = 4*).

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