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**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 09:49 AM

Minnesota tries to end 11-game losing skid at MSU

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (11-2)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (8-4)

Tip-off: Friday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -8

Michigan State has dominated Minnesota at home. Will it continue when the two teams meet on Friday afternoon? The Spartans aim for their 12th straight victory over the Golden Gophers at the Breslin Center. And the games haven't been close. During that stretch, they've outscored Minnesota 72 to 54 in 11 games at home, winning all 11 games by at least six points.

Michigan State will need to reverse its trend against ranked opponents if it is to defeat the Golden Gophers. The Spartans are 1-4 against ranked teams this season, and they also lost to Connecticut in the Maui Invitational when the Huskies weren't ranked. The Spartans are coming off a 67-55 home loss to then-No. 18 Texas on Dec. 22. It marked their third straight setback to a Top 25 opponent and ended their home non-conference win streak at 52.

Kalin Lucas (14.9 PPG, 3.3 APG, 40.5% on three-pointers) scored 17 points against the Longhorns, and Durrell Summers (15.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 45.0% on three-pointers) added 11 in the loss. But the front line of Delvon Roe (6.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), Draymond Green (11.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.8 APG) and Adreian Payne (2.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG) hit a combined 3-of-18 from the floor. The trio's numbers helped explain why the Spartans only shot a season-low 29% for the game.

Minnesota is also coming off a loss after falling, 68-60, at Wisconsin on Tuesday. Trevor Mbakwe (13.1 PPG) finished the game with 11 points and 11 rebounds. He leads the Big Ten with eight double-doubles and ranks second in rebounding with 9.9 per game. Blake Hoffarber leads the Golden Gophers in scoring with 13.8 PPG to go along with 4.7 APG and 3.4 RPG. He's also hitting 39.6% of his three-pointers. Hoffarber scored 12 points against the Badgers. Minnesota freshman Mo Walker suffered a torn knee ligament on Dec. 23 and is out for the season.

Michigan State is 5-5 at home in its last 10 games against ranked conference opponents, but Minnesota's last victory at the Breslin Center came on Jan. 4, 1997. The Golden Gophers have lost eight of their last nine overall to the Spartans, with the only victory coming in overtime in the Big Ten Tournament last March 12, 72-67.

MSU is 9-2 ATS during its 11 straight home wins in the series. Last season, Minnesota was 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in true road games. The Spartans have also won three straight conference openers. Expect Michigan State to make it four in a row on New Year's Eve.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick Michigan State to win and cover the spread.

Tom Izzo is 28-7 ATS (80.0%, +20.3 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points as the coach of MICHIGAN ST. The average score was MICHIGAN ST 74.3, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - good foul drawing team - attempting >=25 free throws/game, good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=42% on the season. (390-269 since 1997.) (59.2%, +94.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 09:50 AM

Unbeaten Ohio State travels to Indiana

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (13-0)

at INDIANA HOOSIERS (9-5)

Tip-off: Friday, 6:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -12.5

Some days you’re the hammer, and some days you’re the nail. When Ohio State takes the court Friday night in Assembly Hall they will be looking to do to Indiana what they’ve done to 13 other unlucky teams this season: inflict massive basketball harm upon the opponent’s psyche. With an average margin of victory of nearly 30 points a game, the Buckeyes are not just beating teams, they are vaporizing them.

Three weeks ago, the Hoosiers were 7-1 and feeling good about the season, but an 81-62 loss at Kentucky began a downward spiral that has seen Indiana drop four out of six games, including a lackluster 69-60 home defeat on Monday to a Penn State squad that entered the game as the worst shooting team in the Big Ten. There is a reason why a game versus the 2nd-ranked Buckeyes looms so dark and ominous on the Hoosiers early-season schedule. Because it is.

Where do you start with Ohio State? How about the big man, freshman center Jared Sullinger (a.k.a. Big Sully) who leads the team in scoring (17.5 PPG) and rebounding (10.2 RPG), and is in the conversation for freshman of the year and national player of the year? How about a team that’s so balanced, five players are scoring in double figures, or a team that’s so deep, last season’s top returning scorer, William Buford, trails a freshman in that category? The Buckeyes are shooting a staggering 50% from the field (eighth in nation), and scoring at an impressive 82.6 PPG clip (12th in the nation). Buford might actually be a bigger concern for Indiana than Sullinger and the other starters. In his past four games versus the Hoosiers, Buford is averaging 20.0 PPG and is shooting nearly 55% from the field. He had 21 in a 69-52 victory over Indiana last February 10 in Bloomington.

Indiana’s top scorer, Christian Watford (17.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG) scored 15 in that February loss, and has been very effective this season. That’s the good news. The bad news -- in his last game, the nine-point loss to Penn State, Watford only totaled three points and four rebounds in 25 minutes of play. Verdell Jones III (12.5 PPG) is the only other Indiana player who scores in double figures, so if they are to have any chance to upset Ohio State, the perfect game will need to be the order of the day. Unfortunately, IU has been far from perfect of late, shooting 42% from the field while averaging 63.3 PPG in its past three games, all losses. Worse yet, in three of its past four meetings against Ohio State, the Hoosiers were held to 54 points or less. Indiana has dropped 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. The chances of that streak ending in Assembly Hall on Friday are pretty small. But who knows, maybe, just maybe, 2010 has one more sports miracle left in the year’s final hours.

Ohio State has won the past four meetings by an average score of 80 to 60, and has won five straight ATS against the Hoosiers. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick Ohio State to win and cover the spread.

Play On - Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (OHIO ST) - good defensive team - allowing <=64 points/game on the season, after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.(130-71 since 1997.) (64.7%, +51.9 units. Rating = 3*).

OHIO ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 67.9, OPPONENT 61.6 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 09:51 AM

Kentucky-Louisville duel at high noon

KENTUCKY WILDCATS (10-2)

at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (11-1)

Tip-off: Friday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisville -2

What will you be doing on New Year’s Eve? Kentucky and Louisville, bitter bluegrass rivals that they are, decided to play a basketball game on the last day of the year. If the intensity and physicality level this season is anything like last year’s slugfest, these two teams could wake up on January 1 feeling like a lot of people around the world: bruised, sluggish, and in dire need of some aspirin.

Last season’s meeting between the Wildcats and Cardinals featured 51 personal fouls, five technical fouls, one flagrant elbow that mercifully did not find its target, and a 71-62 Kentucky victory. Most of the participants who started that game for each school have moved on. Still, there is more than enough sizzle to sell this year’s contest: two cross-state rivals ranked in the Top-20 nationally, two coaches whose relationship has always been frosty at best, and did we mention these teams don’t like each other and probably never will?

It should be very interesting to observe how Kentucky’s top scorers, fellow freshmen Terrence Jones (18.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) and Brandon Knight (17.4 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.6 RPG) will adjust to the intensity level of this game. Head coach John Calipari thinks that one way or another, they’ll learn what this game is all about soon enough. "The ones that don't understand, they'll feel it," Calipari said. "A shot upside your head, a trip or a grab. You'll feel it." Like last year, this year’s Kentucky team is very young, with only one senior on the roster. Unlike last year, they are not very deep, dressing only 10 players. These ‘Cats usually incorporate just a six-man rotation. Despite those numbers, Kentucky has been very tough on the boards, ranking 16th nationally in team rebounding (41.2 RPG). Like seemingly all Kentucky teams going back to the Rick Pitino era, they shoot the three-ball extremely well (100-of-243, 41.2%).

While the Kentucky bench is short, the Louisville bench is long, with at least 10 players averaging 11 minutes per game. That bench recently got a little shorter though, when sophomore forward and leading rebounder Rakeem Buckles (7.5 RPG) was lost to a broken finger. He is out for two weeks, and could be sorely missed against an opponent in Kentucky that is no slouch on the glass. Preston Knowles (15.2 PPG) is the top scorer on a Cardinals team that was supposed to be in rebuilding mode this year, but find themselves in the Top 20 after racing out to an 11-1 start. Eighth in the nation in scoring (83.8 PPG), and fourth in assists (18.8 APG), the Cardinals have done all the basics right. A team FG Pct. of 48.1% (30th in nation) doesn’t hurt the cause either.

New Year’s Eve is a time for noisemakers and fireworks. When 22,000 convene in the KFC Yum Center for the first ever Kentucky-Louisville game in that venue, there will be enough noise in the building to make Times Square sound like a church mouse.

This series has been very tight since 1997, with Kentucky holding the slight 7-6 advantage (SU and ATS). The FoxSheets show three more reasons to expect Louisville to win and cover the spread.

Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (LOUISVILLE) - after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after 3 straight wins by 15 points or more. (56-24 since 1997.) (70%, +29.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams as an underdog or pick (KENTUCKY) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. (69-29 since 1997.) (70.4%, +37.1 units. Rating = 3*).

KENTUCKY is 3-18 ATS (14.3%, -16.8 Units) after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997. The average score was KENTUCKY 77.5, OPPONENT 68.5 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 09:52 AM

Buckeyes start Big Ten betting slate at Indiana

If the Indiana Hoosiers were hoping a trip to Las Vegas just before Christmas would be a perfect way to tune up for their Big Ten schedule, they were wrong. The Hoosiers, who hit Sin City with a 9-2 record, dropped a pair of contests as small favorites in advance of their conference opener at home this past Monday against Penn State. Indiana fell as favorites again, 69-60, to a not-so-good Nittany Lions team.

Now Tom Crean's team will take on the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. Unless there's a huge upset the Hoosiers will see their skid grow to four and open Big Ten play in an 0-2 hole that is only going to get deeper.

Maybe Crean and his crew had too much fun in Vegas and forgot to focus on why they were there. Indiana's website had this quote from Crean while the Hoosiers were in Nevada to take on Northern Iowa and Colorado: "I think they have had a good time. We are staying at a top of the line place and last night we had the bus take them and drop them off at Caesar's Palace – me included with my family – and guys were able to move around for three or three and a half hours and then get picked up at another spot.

"I think they enjoyed that and that's what it's really about."

No Tom, that's not what the trip was really about. The trip was really all about winning some basketball games...well, that and the money that the event brought in at Orleans Arena.

Using the 'fun holiday trip' excuse for the losses in Vegas is one thing; dropping the Big Ten opener at home to Penn State is entirely different. Favored by 6½, Indiana slipped a second straight time at Assembly Hall to the Nittany Lions by a 69-60 count. The Hoosiers came out flat and were in constant foul trouble with PSU outscoring them from the charity stripe, 19-5.

The third consecutive spread defeat left Indiana 3-5 against the number. It was also another off night finding the basket for the Hoosiers who hit under 43 percent from the field for a third straight game. Indiana ranks 13th nationally with a 49.3 percent FG mark, but facing tougher defenses that stat is being exposed for what it is after the Hoosiers padded the column with contests versus Wright State, Northwestern State and SIU-Edwardsville.

They will need to find the net with regularity against a Buckeyes offense that is 12th in the country in scoring (82.6 per game) and ninth in shooting (50.0 percent FG).

Ohio State (13-0 SU, 6-4 ATS) has been quietly drafting the top-ranked Duke Blue Devils since just after Thanksgiving when the Buckeyes assumed the No. 2 slot in the rankings. They come into this match with three straight wins at the window, all double-digit spreads. Included in that span is a convincing 92-63 win over a good Oakland squad as 17½-point chalk.

The Buckeyes reached the century mark in their latest trip to the floor, a 100-40 rout of Tennessee-Martin that easily covered the 38½-point NCAAB odds. Ohio State dominated the glass, 44-26, took advantage of 19 Skyhawks turnovers and shot nearly 59 percent for the game. William Buford, the junior guard out of Toledo, led the charge with a season-best 23 points on 9-of-11 shooting.

Ohio State won both games between the two schools last season, covering as 14-point chalk at home and 11-point chalk at Assembly Hall. The Buckeyes currently have a four-game win streak versus the Hoosiers, with Indiana's last win in the series coming in Feb. 2008, a 59-53 upset win in Columbus where OSU was favored by three.

The Buckeyes will remain on the Big Ten highway after this one with a Jan. 4 battle at Iowa. Indiana hits the road the same evening with a tough matchup at Minnesota.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 12:25 PM

Friday, December 31Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 3:00 PM ET New Orleans +5.5 500
Boston - Over 184.5 500

New Jersey - 3:00 PM ET New Jersey +10 500
Chicago - Under 186.5 500

Washington - 3:00 PM ET Indiana -6 500
Indiana - Over 196.5 500

Golden State - 3:00 PM ET Charlotte -3 500
Charlotte - Under 209 500

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Houston -9 500
Houston - Under 196 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -5.5 500
Oklahoma City - Under 196 500

Detroit - 9:00 PM ET Detroit +6 500
Phoenix - Under 209.5 500

Philadelphia - 10:30 PM ET Philadelphia +9.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 195 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 31Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 5:00 PM ET Atlanta +106 500
New Jersey - Under 5.5 500

Montreal - 5:00 PM ET Montreal +125 500
Florida - Over 5 500

Nashville - 6:00 PM ET Nashville +107 500
Minnesota - Over 5 500

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +261 500
Detroit - Under 5.5 500

Ottawa - 7:00 PM ET Columbus -116 500
Columbus - Over 5.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Philadelphia -120 500
Anaheim - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 8:00 PM ET Vancouver -113 500
Dallas - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 8:30 PM ET St. Louis -142 500
St. Louis - Under 5 500

Colorado - 9:00 PM ET Calgary -117 500
Calgary - Under 5.5 500

HAPPY NEW YEARS and GOOD LUCK !......................

**StarDust Bum** · 12-31-2010, 12:30 PM

Thunder favored by 5.5 over Atlanta

ATLANTA HAWKS (21-13)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (22-11)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -5.5, Total: 196

The Hawks travel to Oklahoma to take on the NBA leading scorer Kevin Durant and the Thunder to celebrate the New Year. Oklahoma City has kept up the pace they set in the playoff last season when they took the eventual champion Lakers to six games. The Thunder are 17-15-1 ATS this season but have done well of late, winning eight of their last 11. They are 4-2 in their past six home games ATS. Kevin Durant has picked up his pace over his past nine games, averaging 29.5 PPG while shooting 55.6 percent from the field. While the Thunder have really struggled from behind the three-point line this season (NBA-worst 32.3%), they have excelled at the FT line, helping them win close games. Oklahoma City has 11 wins on the season by six points or less and its 83.9% FT clip leads the NBA by four percentage points.

Atlanta has done well SU, winning 21 of 34 games, but has struggled ATS, going just 15-19 on the season. The Hawks are better ATS on the road (9-8), but have lost six of their past eight road games ATS. Overall though, the Hawks have won four of their past five games ATS, shooting over 50% in three of those wins. If the Thunder’s poor shooting from behind the three-point line wasn’t bad enough, the Hawks can make things a lot worse, as they are holding opponents to just 31.3%, which ranks second behind only the Heat. Al Horford has played very well during the Hawks recent five-game stretch. In Atlanta’s four wins during that time, Horford averaged 20.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG and shot 64.9 percent from the field.

The Hawks might be playing well now, but the Thunder have just too many offensive options to worry about. I like Oklahoma City minus the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Underdogs (ATLANTA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (72-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +34.6 units. Rating = 3*).

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