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•••NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 17•••
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*** OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY (-3, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Raiders might have nothing to play for, but they’ll be out for blood against their division rivals. Oakland is unbeaten in division games this year, winning the teams’ Week 9 matchup in overtime thanks to a couple of timely big catches from Jacoby Ford. The Chiefs relied heavily on Thomas Jones in that game, rather the more explosive Jamaal Charles. But with the AFC West wrapped up and a first-round bye out of reach, they might use Charles sparingly. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Kansas City is 6-5 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Oakland (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--KANSAS CITY is 18-33 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 64-44 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after gaining 450+ total yards in last game over L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 19-36 ATS vs. good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 yards/carry since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 9-2 OVER against conference opponents this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND (-4.5, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: With a No. 1 playoff seed already wrapped up, and memories of Wes Welker’s Week 17 ACL tear of a year ago, the Patriots might go against the Brady way and rest their starters against Miami. The Fins have played the Pats close in the recent past. They were on the wrong end of a Week 4 blowout due to a special teams collapse, but split with New England in 2008 and ’09. Miami has also been phenomenal on the road this year, going 6-1 SU and ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: New England is 5-6 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Miami (1-4 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
--MIAMI is 8-0 ATS away vs. teams w/ comp. pct. of 61% or better. over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 14-3 ATS away after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 10-0 UNDER revenging a home loss vs. opponent by 14+ points since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
(22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5, O/U 48) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Indianapolis Colts clinch the AFC South with a win, so unlike last year they’ll be playing their starters in Week #17. The Colts offense is still shorthanded, but in better shape now that RB Joseph Addai has returned. The Titans hung tight in their last match-up, a 30-28 loss at Tennessee in Week 14. But with their pass defense problems, they are going to struggle to hold Peyton Manning in check. The Titans have lost seven of eight SU and six of eight ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Indianapolis is 5-6 ATS (8-3 SU) vs. Tennessee (3-2 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--INDY is 39-18 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--INDY is 17-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
--INDY is 14-32 ATS at home when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS vs. defenses allowing >=130 rush yards/game over the L3 seasons.
--TENNESSEE is 6-0 OVER vs. teams averaging >=375 yards/game this season.
--TENNESSEE is 11-2 UNDER away revenging close loss by 7 points or less to opp. since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON (-3, O/U 46) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jaguars are barely alive as they head to Houston for the regular season finale. They will have something to play for though, as they won’t know the Colts result and could win the AFC South with a win and an Indy loss. The Texans seem to have checked out for the year, dropping four straight and eight of nine SU, and four in a row and nine of 11 ATS, including a choke job against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos last week. After six straight ATS wins, the Jags have dropped two in a row. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Houston is 6-5 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Jacksonville (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS at home revenging loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better this season.
--HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS after the first month of the season this season.
--JACKSONVILLE is 12-23 ATS after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 13-26 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** PITTSBURGH (-5.5, O/U 37.5) @ CLEVELAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Steelers will be going all out with a chance to clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye. The Steelers have dominated Cleveland in the Roethlisberger Era, winning 12 of 13 SU and going 8-4-1 ATS, including an easy 28-10 victory in Colt McCoy’s first career start back in October. However, the one slip up was December 2009 in Cleveland, when the double-digit underdog Browns stunned the Steelers with a 13-6 victory. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cleveland is 5-6 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Pittsburgh (3-2 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 10-26 ATS vs. defenses allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover in 3 of last 4 games over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER after allowing 100 or less pass yards in last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 83-54 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS away in January games since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS away vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off 1 or more consecutive unders, a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games.
(29-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE (-9.5, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bengals will continue to work in their young players as the Ravens work to stay in contention for a division title. The Bengals have looked impressive the past two weeks, turning to the ground game (which is how they made the playoffs last year) and using their young receivers. Cincy has actually beaten the Ravens in three straight, with the teams never combining for more than 31 points. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Baltimore is 3-8 ATS (3-8 SU) vs. Cincinnati (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--BALTIMORE is 12-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 51-32 ATS as a home favorite since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 17-5 ATS at home vs. defenses allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 12-24 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 54-79 ATS versus division opponents since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 5-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** MINNESOTA @ DETROIT (-3, O/U 42) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: This could be the final farewell for Brett Favre (if healthy), as the Vikings visit a Lions team that is finishing strong. After back-to-back wins in Florida, Detroit has won three in a row SU and four straight ATS despite having their second- and third-string quarterbacks leading the way. The Vikings have been searching for an identity all season. If Adrian Peterson is healthy again, they might be able to ride him to success on offense. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Detroit is 2-7 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Minnesota (1-3 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 9-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.
--DETROIT is 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992.
--DETROIT is 31-17 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 21-36 ATS away when playing vs. teams with a losing record since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 49-31 OVER away in the second half of the season since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 42-24 OVER away versus division opponents since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Home favorites - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +17.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NY GIANTS (-4, O/U 44.5) @ WASHINGTON ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Giants could still have slim playoff hopes alive as they visit Washington for their season finale. The Giants have been collapsing since an embarrassing Week 15 choke job against Philly: They’ve been outscored 73-24 over their last five quarters. The Redskins have played solid football since promoting QB Rex Grossman to the starting lineup, despite their QB’s spotty play. The Giants dominated in a 31-7 home win over Washington in Week 13. They’ve beaten the ‘Skins five in a row SU, going 4-0-1 ATS in those games. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Washington is 2-9 ATS (2-9 SU) vs. NY Giants (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 7-21 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 169-135 UNDER in all lined games since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 131-99 UNDER against conference opponents since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 37-14 UNDER away after failing to cover in 2 of last 3 games since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 20-7 UNDER away vs. teams who give up 24+ pts/game since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 25-10 UNDER vs. defenses allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY (-10, O/U 41.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: This rivalry game has key postseason implications. The Bears have a chance to wrap up a first-round bye, while the Packers are just trying to stay in contention. While Chicago is the NFC North division champs, it’s difficult to argue that they’ve outplayed the Packers this season. In the teams’ first meeting this year, Week 3 in Chicago, the Packers out-gained the Bears 316-199. But Chicago took home the win thanks to a Devin Hester punt return TD and a stunning 152 penalty yards by Green Bay. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Green Bay is 5-5 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Chicago (2-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS at home after a game w/ a TO margin of +3 or better since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 132-98 ATS in games played on a grass field since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 9-26 ATS away in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.
(35-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA (-3, O/U 43) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Cowboys finish out a disastrous year against a bitter rival in Philadelphia. The Cowboys could have third string QB Stephen McGee under center as second-stringer Jon Kitna is struggling with a hip injury. McGee looked solid in relief of Kitna last week. The Eagles will likely be playing for a win, as they have a chance to grab a first-round playoff bye. Dallas played them close in Week 14, losing 30-27 in Big D. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Philadelphia is 5-7 ATS (5-7 SU) vs. Dallas (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 141-99 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 OVER vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER after a game where 50+ total points were scored this season.
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER in the second half of the season this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** BUFFALO @ NY JETS (-1, O/U 40) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Neither team has much to play for in this one, as the Jets prepare for their Wild Card playoff game and the Bills are playing out the string. Jets coach Rex Ryan already announced that he’ll likely sit quarterback Mark Sanchez, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Bills have played hard all season, but their weakness is stopping the run. New York may still be able to move the ball with Shonn Greene. Series History – Last 5 seasons: NY Jets is 5-6 ATS (6-5 SU) vs. Buffalo (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NY JETS are 9-0 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
--NY JETS are 40-19 UNDER after allowing 6+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--NY JETS are 17-5 UNDER at home vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 14-32 ATS away after covering in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 16-4 UNDER away revenging loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER after allowing 150 or less pass yards last game over L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(81-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +44.7 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** CAROLINA @ ATLANTA (-14, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Panthers have already clinched the NFL Draft’s No. 1 pick, while Atlanta tries to stay sharp for the upcoming postseason. The teams just met in Week 14 in Atlanta, with the Falcons cruising to a 31-10 victory. With a pitiful offense, Carolina has topped 20 points just once in the past just once in their past nine games. That’s a big reason they covered in just two of those games. The best they can hope for might be the Falcons resting some starters. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Atlanta is 5-6 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Carolina (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS vs. teams allowing cmp. % of 61% or worse in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 17-6 ATS after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.
--ATLANTA is 13-4 ATS in dome games over the L2 seasons.
--CAROLINA is 23-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28+ points since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS away revenging a loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS off a road loss this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(81-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +44.7 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS (7.5, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bucs are clinging to their playoff hopes as they visit New Orleans for the season finale. They were blown out by the Saints in their October meeting in Tampa, a 31-6 loss. But the Bucs haven’t been swept by the Saints since 2006, and Tampa beat the Saints in New Orleans, 20-17, in Week 16 of the 2009 season before the Saints started resting their regulars. Quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a career game, throwing for five TDs in a home win over Seattle. Series History – Last 5 seasons: New Orleans is 5-6 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Tampa Bay (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NEW ORLEANS is 19-44 ATS at home versus division opponents since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 11-26 ATS at home in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 43-68 ATS at home after the first month of the season since 1992.
--TAMPA is 7-0 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 13-3 UNDER away revenging a loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--TAMPA is 50-24 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ST LOUIS (-3, O/U 41.5) @ SEATTLE ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Despite both teams having losing records, this is the Sunday Night game, a primetime battle for the playoffs. The winner captures the NFC West crown. The Rams cruised to a home victory over the Seahawks in Week 4, but Seattle is traditionally much tougher at home. The Seahawks are 3-0 (SU and ATS) at home against opponents who currently have losing records. They’ve beaten the Rams five straight times at home, but this time they’ll have to do it with back-up QB Charlie Whitehurst running the show. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Seattle is 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) vs. ST Louis (4-1 ATS, 5-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points this season.
--SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season.
--SEATTLE is 10-1 OVER as an underdog this season.
--ST LOUIS is 3-15 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 26-43 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS away after gaining 75 or less rush yards in 2 straight since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) in the second half of the season.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO (-6, O/U 38.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: San Francisco enters their season finale as a bigger mess than usual. They fired head coach Mike Singletary after their Week 16 loss and are once again unsettled under center (Alex Smith is likely to get the call after Troy Smith’s Week 16 meltdown). Arizona has played well since rookie QB John Skelton took over under center, winning two of three both SU and ATS. San Fran did score an impressive road victory over the Cards in Week 12’s Monday nighter, pummeling then-Arizona starter Derek Anderson. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Francisco is 6-5 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Arizona (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--SAN FRAN is 10-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 46-27 OVER in a home game where the total is 35.5-42 points since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 40-24 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS after a game with a TO margin of +2 or better over the L2 seasons.
--ARIZONA is 12-28 ATS in a road game where the total is 35.5-38 points since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 3-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** SAN DIEGO (-3, O/U 47) @ DENVER ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Neither team has anything to play for in this one, as the up-and-down Chargers blew their playoff chances in Cincinnati last week. Denver will continue to go with Tim Tebow under center, and the rookie delivered a very good performance against Houston last week. He’ll be going up against a much stronger D in the Chargers this time around. San Diego will have the Broncos out-gunned, but they’ve managed to lose games like this all season. They’re 5-5 SU against teams that currently have losing records. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Denver is 2-8 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. San Diego (0-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DENVER is 3-13 ATS after allowing 6+ yards/play in previous game over L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 20-5 OVER at home after allowing 400+ total yards in last game since 1992.
--DENVER is 33-12 OVER after allowing 6.5+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play in 2nd half of year in L2 seasons.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-9 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 9-1 OVER away vs. teams allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY (-3, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Raiders might have nothing to play for, but they’ll be out for blood against their division rivals. Oakland is unbeaten in division games this year, winning the teams’ Week 9 matchup in overtime thanks to a couple of timely big catches from Jacoby Ford. The Chiefs relied heavily on Thomas Jones in that game, rather the more explosive Jamaal Charles. But with the AFC West wrapped up and a first-round bye out of reach, they might use Charles sparingly. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Kansas City is 6-5 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Oakland (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--KANSAS CITY is 18-33 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 64-44 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER after gaining 450+ total yards in last game over L3 seasons.
--OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 19-36 ATS vs. good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 yards/carry since 1992.
--OAKLAND is 9-2 OVER against conference opponents this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND (-4.5, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: With a No. 1 playoff seed already wrapped up, and memories of Wes Welker’s Week 17 ACL tear of a year ago, the Patriots might go against the Brady way and rest their starters against Miami. The Fins have played the Pats close in the recent past. They were on the wrong end of a Week 4 blowout due to a special teams collapse, but split with New England in 2008 and ’09. Miami has also been phenomenal on the road this year, going 6-1 SU and ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: New England is 5-6 ATS (7-4 SU) vs. Miami (1-4 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NEW ENGLAND is 20-5 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
--MIAMI is 8-0 ATS away vs. teams w/ comp. pct. of 61% or better. over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 14-3 ATS away after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--MIAMI is 10-0 UNDER revenging a home loss vs. opponent by 14+ points since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
(22-4 since 1983.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5, O/U 48) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Indianapolis Colts clinch the AFC South with a win, so unlike last year they’ll be playing their starters in Week #17. The Colts offense is still shorthanded, but in better shape now that RB Joseph Addai has returned. The Titans hung tight in their last match-up, a 30-28 loss at Tennessee in Week 14. But with their pass defense problems, they are going to struggle to hold Peyton Manning in check. The Titans have lost seven of eight SU and six of eight ATS. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Indianapolis is 5-6 ATS (8-3 SU) vs. Tennessee (3-2 ATS, 4-1 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--INDY is 39-18 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--INDY is 17-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
--INDY is 14-32 ATS at home when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS vs. defenses allowing >=130 rush yards/game over the L3 seasons.
--TENNESSEE is 6-0 OVER vs. teams averaging >=375 yards/game this season.
--TENNESSEE is 11-2 UNDER away revenging close loss by 7 points or less to opp. since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON (-3, O/U 46) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Jaguars are barely alive as they head to Houston for the regular season finale. They will have something to play for though, as they won’t know the Colts result and could win the AFC South with a win and an Indy loss. The Texans seem to have checked out for the year, dropping four straight and eight of nine SU, and four in a row and nine of 11 ATS, including a choke job against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos last week. After six straight ATS wins, the Jags have dropped two in a row. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Houston is 6-5 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Jacksonville (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS at home revenging loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS vs. teams with a comp. pct. of 61% or better this season.
--HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS after the first month of the season this season.
--JACKSONVILLE is 12-23 ATS after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 13-26 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
--JACKSONVILLE is 6-15 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** PITTSBURGH (-5.5, O/U 37.5) @ CLEVELAND ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Steelers will be going all out with a chance to clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye. The Steelers have dominated Cleveland in the Roethlisberger Era, winning 12 of 13 SU and going 8-4-1 ATS, including an easy 28-10 victory in Colt McCoy’s first career start back in October. However, the one slip up was December 2009 in Cleveland, when the double-digit underdog Browns stunned the Steelers with a 13-6 victory. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Cleveland is 5-6 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Pittsburgh (3-2 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 10-26 ATS vs. defenses allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
--CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover in 3 of last 4 games over the L3 seasons.
--CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER after allowing 100 or less pass yards in last game since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 83-54 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS away in January games since 1992.
--PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS away vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line - off 1 or more consecutive unders, a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games.
(29-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE (-9.5, O/U 43.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bengals will continue to work in their young players as the Ravens work to stay in contention for a division title. The Bengals have looked impressive the past two weeks, turning to the ground game (which is how they made the playoffs last year) and using their young receivers. Cincy has actually beaten the Ravens in three straight, with the teams never combining for more than 31 points. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Baltimore is 3-8 ATS (3-8 SU) vs. Cincinnati (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--BALTIMORE is 12-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
--BALTIMORE is 51-32 ATS as a home favorite since 1992.
--BALTIMORE is 17-5 ATS at home vs. defenses allowing >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 12-24 ATS against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
--CINCINNATI is 54-79 ATS versus division opponents since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 5-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** MINNESOTA @ DETROIT (-3, O/U 42) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: This could be the final farewell for Brett Favre (if healthy), as the Vikings visit a Lions team that is finishing strong. After back-to-back wins in Florida, Detroit has won three in a row SU and four straight ATS despite having their second- and third-string quarterbacks leading the way. The Vikings have been searching for an identity all season. If Adrian Peterson is healthy again, they might be able to ride him to success on offense. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Detroit is 2-7 ATS (1-10 SU) vs. Minnesota (1-3 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 9-2 ATS against conference opponents this season.
--DETROIT is 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1992.
--DETROIT is 31-17 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 21-36 ATS away when playing vs. teams with a losing record since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 49-31 OVER away in the second half of the season since 1992.
--MINNESOTA is 42-24 OVER away versus division opponents since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Home favorites - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record.
(24-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +17.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** NY GIANTS (-4, O/U 44.5) @ WASHINGTON ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Giants could still have slim playoff hopes alive as they visit Washington for their season finale. The Giants have been collapsing since an embarrassing Week 15 choke job against Philly: They’ve been outscored 73-24 over their last five quarters. The Redskins have played solid football since promoting QB Rex Grossman to the starting lineup, despite their QB’s spotty play. The Giants dominated in a 31-7 home win over Washington in Week 13. They’ve beaten the ‘Skins five in a row SU, going 4-0-1 ATS in those games. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Washington is 2-9 ATS (2-9 SU) vs. NY Giants (1-4 ATS, 1-4 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 7-21 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 169-135 UNDER in all lined games since 1992.
--WASHINGTON is 131-99 UNDER against conference opponents since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 37-14 UNDER away after failing to cover in 2 of last 3 games since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 20-7 UNDER away vs. teams who give up 24+ pts/game since 1992.
--NY GIANTS are 25-10 UNDER vs. defenses allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY (-10, O/U 41.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: This rivalry game has key postseason implications. The Bears have a chance to wrap up a first-round bye, while the Packers are just trying to stay in contention. While Chicago is the NFC North division champs, it’s difficult to argue that they’ve outplayed the Packers this season. In the teams’ first meeting this year, Week 3 in Chicago, the Packers out-gained the Bears 316-199. But Chicago took home the win thanks to a Devin Hester punt return TD and a stunning 152 penalty yards by Green Bay. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Green Bay is 5-5 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. Chicago (2-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS at home after a game w/ a TO margin of +3 or better since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.
--GREEN BAY is 132-98 ATS in games played on a grass field since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 9-26 ATS away in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team against the total - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.
(35-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA (-3, O/U 43) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Cowboys finish out a disastrous year against a bitter rival in Philadelphia. The Cowboys could have third string QB Stephen McGee under center as second-stringer Jon Kitna is struggling with a hip injury. McGee looked solid in relief of Kitna last week. The Eagles will likely be playing for a win, as they have a chance to grab a first-round playoff bye. Dallas played them close in Week 14, losing 30-27 in Big D. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Philadelphia is 5-7 ATS (5-7 SU) vs. Dallas (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--PHILADELPHIA is 141-99 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
--PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER after the first month of the season this season.
--PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 OVER vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER after a game where 50+ total points were scored this season.
--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER in the second half of the season this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** BUFFALO @ NY JETS (-1, O/U 40) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Neither team has much to play for in this one, as the Jets prepare for their Wild Card playoff game and the Bills are playing out the string. Jets coach Rex Ryan already announced that he’ll likely sit quarterback Mark Sanchez, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Bills have played hard all season, but their weakness is stopping the run. New York may still be able to move the ball with Shonn Greene. Series History – Last 5 seasons: NY Jets is 5-6 ATS (6-5 SU) vs. Buffalo (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NY JETS are 9-0 OVER vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
--NY JETS are 40-19 UNDER after allowing 6+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--NY JETS are 17-5 UNDER at home vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 14-32 ATS away after covering in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 16-4 UNDER away revenging loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER after allowing 150 or less pass yards last game over L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(81-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +44.7 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** CAROLINA @ ATLANTA (-14, O/U 41) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Panthers have already clinched the NFL Draft’s No. 1 pick, while Atlanta tries to stay sharp for the upcoming postseason. The teams just met in Week 14 in Atlanta, with the Falcons cruising to a 31-10 victory. With a pitiful offense, Carolina has topped 20 points just once in the past just once in their past nine games. That’s a big reason they covered in just two of those games. The best they can hope for might be the Falcons resting some starters. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Atlanta is 5-6 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Carolina (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS vs. teams allowing cmp. % of 61% or worse in 2nd half of year since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 17-6 ATS after the first month of the season over the L2 seasons.
--ATLANTA is 13-4 ATS in dome games over the L2 seasons.
--CAROLINA is 23-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28+ points since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS away revenging a loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS off a road loss this season.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(81-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +44.7 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS (7.5, O/U 46.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: The Bucs are clinging to their playoff hopes as they visit New Orleans for the season finale. They were blown out by the Saints in their October meeting in Tampa, a 31-6 loss. But the Bucs haven’t been swept by the Saints since 2006, and Tampa beat the Saints in New Orleans, 20-17, in Week 16 of the 2009 season before the Saints started resting their regulars. Quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a career game, throwing for five TDs in a home win over Seattle. Series History – Last 5 seasons: New Orleans is 5-6 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Tampa Bay (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--NEW ORLEANS is 19-44 ATS at home versus division opponents since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 11-26 ATS at home in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
--NEW ORLEANS is 43-68 ATS at home after the first month of the season since 1992.
--TAMPA is 7-0 ATS away after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L2 seasons.
--TAMPA is 13-3 UNDER away revenging a loss where opp. scored 28+ points since 1992.
--TAMPA is 50-24 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 - off a home win, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ST LOUIS (-3, O/U 41.5) @ SEATTLE ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Despite both teams having losing records, this is the Sunday Night game, a primetime battle for the playoffs. The winner captures the NFC West crown. The Rams cruised to a home victory over the Seahawks in Week 4, but Seattle is traditionally much tougher at home. The Seahawks are 3-0 (SU and ATS) at home against opponents who currently have losing records. They’ve beaten the Rams five straight times at home, but this time they’ll have to do it with back-up QB Charlie Whitehurst running the show. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Seattle is 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) vs. ST Louis (4-1 ATS, 5-0 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER after a loss by 14 or more points this season.
--SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season.
--SEATTLE is 10-1 OVER as an underdog this season.
--ST LOUIS is 3-15 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 26-43 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
--ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS away after gaining 75 or less rush yards in 2 straight since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) in the second half of the season.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
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*** ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO (-6, O/U 38.5) ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: San Francisco enters their season finale as a bigger mess than usual. They fired head coach Mike Singletary after their Week 16 loss and are once again unsettled under center (Alex Smith is likely to get the call after Troy Smith’s Week 16 meltdown). Arizona has played well since rookie QB John Skelton took over under center, winning two of three both SU and ATS. San Fran did score an impressive road victory over the Cards in Week 12’s Monday nighter, pummeling then-Arizona starter Derek Anderson. Series History – Last 5 seasons: San Francisco is 6-5 ATS (5-6 SU) vs. Arizona (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--SAN FRAN is 10-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS over the L2 seasons.
--SAN FRAN is 46-27 OVER in a home game where the total is 35.5-42 points since 1992.
--SAN FRAN is 40-24 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS after a game with a TO margin of +2 or better over the L2 seasons.
--ARIZONA is 12-28 ATS in a road game where the total is 35.5-38 points since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 3-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins ATS over the L2 seasons.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*)
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*** SAN DIEGO (-3, O/U 47) @ DENVER ***
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Neither team has anything to play for in this one, as the up-and-down Chargers blew their playoff chances in Cincinnati last week. Denver will continue to go with Tim Tebow under center, and the rookie delivered a very good performance against Houston last week. He’ll be going up against a much stronger D in the Chargers this time around. San Diego will have the Broncos out-gunned, but they’ve managed to lose games like this all season. They’re 5-5 SU against teams that currently have losing records. Series History – Last 5 seasons: Denver is 2-8 ATS (4-7 SU) vs. San Diego (0-4 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.)
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
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--DENVER is 3-13 ATS after allowing 6+ yards/play in previous game over L3 seasons.
--DENVER is 20-5 OVER at home after allowing 400+ total yards in last game since 1992.
--DENVER is 33-12 OVER after allowing 6.5+ yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging >=5.65 yards/play in 2nd half of year in L2 seasons.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-9 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 9-1 OVER away vs. teams allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
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