Announcement

**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 07:58 PM

NFL opening line report: Week 17

Week 17 is a wagering minefield.

The books have odds all over the place and nobody really has any idea of who’s going to play and who will sit out, as teams either battle for a playoff spot or play for next year.

And while it’s tough for bettors to get a good read on what’s going on, it’s just as hard for the books.

“There is usually a lot more line movement later in the week when we find out who is playing and who isn’t,” says Chuck Esposito, race and sports executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino. “There is so much information available for the bettors that they will be monitoring this as closely as we are.”

That’s where it can get dicey though. You just don’t know what to believe anymore. Bill Belichick’s Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for this week and he still wouldn’t talk about whether his starters – especially Tom Brady – will suit up at home against the Dolphins.

As a result, the books are forced to hold the line. By late Monday night, more than half of Week 17’s odds were off the board.

Figuring out how teams will approach game planning isn’t much easier. You might think that a team that’s just playing out the string will mail it in against a playoff hopeful, but we’ve seen that isn’t always the case. Sometimes weaker teams play better with less pressure.

So how do you go about handicapping this week?

“Treat it like any other weekend,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton oddsmaker. “Just because it’s the last weekend, don’t go crazy and chase. We still have the playoffs, bowl games, Super Bowl and of course a ton of other events to play on.”

Esposito also says that outside of limiting your plays to matchups in which both teams have something to play for, there really isn’t anything else you can do except wait it out and keep your ear to the ground.

Biggest spread

The biggest number on the board right now has the Colts pegged as a 9.5-point favorite over the Tennessee Titans as Indy continues its late surge into the playoff picture. The Colts have reeled off three straight wins, but barely got past the Titans a few weeks ago.

The other number you’ll have to keep an eye on is the Eagles-Cowboys matchup. This line is off the board but Kornegay guesses it will come out around Philadelphia -12 barring a major setback in Week 16’s game against Minnesota.

Smallest spread

Somebody has to win the NFC West, right? That division will be decided when the Seahawks host the Rams. Seattle is pegged as an early 1-point underdog with the total at 41.5.

Esposito cites Seattle’s terrible slump as one of the main reasons for the line. The Seahawks have dropped three straight outright and against the number, while St. Louis is coming off a 25-17 win over the 49ers as a 2-point favorite.

Biggest total

Esposito says the Jaguars-Texans total will likely come in around 49 points, but for now the Colts-Titans and Chargers-Broncos matchups both have a 47.5-point over/under.

On a side note, has a team with the No. 1-overall total defense and the No. 2 total offense ever missed the playoffs? You stay classy, San Diego.

Smallest total

The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday and the books have a 37.5-point total listed as of now. Esposito expects the Bills-Jets number to come in lower than that at around 34 points with growing speculation that the Jets will rest a lot of their starters.

Trickiest line

Nobody has any idea what the line will be for New England’s game against Miami.

“Meaningless game for the Pats but they’re on a roll,” says Kornegay. “The Dolphins are out and not sure how they rebound from another home loss but they play great on the road - go figure. Not sure if Belichick will rest players or not. Normally, he doesn’t but last year they lost Welker to a serious injury in a meaningless game. This line should be interesting to watch the whole week.”

Other Week 17 available lines

Bengals at Ravens (-9.5, 43)
Cardinals at 49ers (-6.5, 38)
Giants at Redskins (3.5, 44.5)

**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 08:02 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Carolina at Atlanta
The Falcons look to bounce back from their 17-14 loss to New Orleans and build on their 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in the previous game. Atlanta is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 23 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-14). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 301-302: Oakland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 130.489; Kansas City 132.783
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+4); Over

Game 303-304: Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.093; New England 139.378
Dunkel Line: New England by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under

Game 305-306: Tennessee at Indianapolis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.129; Indianapolis 137.117
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Jacksonville at Houston (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.877; Houston 130.517
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.017; Cleveland 131.974
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 32
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 125.385; Baltimore 140.222
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 46
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-9 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.009; Detroit 131.455
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: NY Giants at Washington (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.463; Washington 128.841
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 137.095; Green Bay 143.975
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 36
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+10); Under

Game 319-320: Dallas at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.472; Philadelphia 144.306
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 14; 52
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 321-322: Buffalo at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 133.337; NY Jets 133.076
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+2);

Game 323-324: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 118.002; Atlanta 141.337
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 23 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 14; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-14); Over

Game 325-326: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.555; New Orleans 141.157
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: St. Louis at Seattle (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.160; Seattle 124.557
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 118.712; San Francisco 129.418
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6); Over

Game 331-332: San Diego at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 127.000; Denver 126.051
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 08:07 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 2

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OAKLAND (7 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 5) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-61 ATS (-38.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (7 - 8) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 2) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MIAMI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (6 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 6) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (8 - 7) at HOUSTON (5 - 10) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (11 - 4) at CLEVELAND (5 - 10) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 83-54 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (4 - 11) at BALTIMORE (11 - 4) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 54-79 ATS (-32.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 9) at DETROIT (5 - 10) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
DETROIT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 6) at WASHINGTON (6 - 9) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 5-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 5-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (11 - 4) at GREEN BAY (9 - 6) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 132-98 ATS (+24.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (5 - 10) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 5) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 11) at NY JETS (10 - 5) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (2 - 13) at ATLANTA (12 - 3) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
ATLANTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ATLANTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (9 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 4) - 1/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-44 ATS (-29.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (7 - 8) at SEATTLE (6 - 9) - 1/2/2011, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 10) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (8 - 7) at DENVER (4 - 11) - 1/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 08:20 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, 1/2/2011

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 21-42 ATS L4 wks of the regular season
KANSAS CITY: 6-0 Under after gaining 450+ total yds last game

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 10-0 Under revenging home loss of 14+ points
NEW ENGLAND: 20-5 ATS after gaining 175+ rushing yds last game

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
TENNESSEE: 9-2 Under at Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 7-0 Over L4 wks of regular season

JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
JACKSONVILLE: 6-0 Over off home game
HOUSTON: 4-0 Over off an Under

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 5-1 Under off win by 21+ pts
CLEVELAND: 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 12-24 ATS vs. conference
BALTIMORE: 12-2 ATS vs. team with losing record

MINNESOTA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 1-4 ATS vs. division
DETROIT: 11-3-1 ATS this season

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
NY GIANTS: 0-6 ATS after allowing 400+ yds last game
WASHINGTON: 0-5 ATS vs. Giants

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
CHICAGO: 1-10 ATS off 2 straight covers as favorite
GREEN BAY: 5-0 Under off home win

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
DALLAS: 12-0 Over L12 games
PHILADELPHIA: n/a

BUFFALO at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 0-4 ATS off division game
NY JETS: 3-0 ATS after scoring 30+ pts last game

CAROLINA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-6 ATS off road loss
ATLANTA: 8-0 ATS after scoring 14 pts or less

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 6-1 ATS in dome games
NEW ORLEANS: 4-16 ATS off road win by 3 pts or less

ST LOUIS at SEATTLE, 8:25 PM ET (TC) | ESPN
ST LOUIS: 9-1 Over after gaining 75 or less rushing yards
SEATTLE: 5-16 ATS as an underdog

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
ARIZONA: 9-2 Under vs. division
SAN FRANCISCO: 10-2 ATS off ATS loss

SAN DIEGO at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 4-1 ATS vs. Denver
DENVER: 15-1 Over at home after allowing 300+ yds passing

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 08:22 PM

NFL
Write-Up

Week 17 NFL games

Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)—Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Oakland winning last three visits here; Raiders could become first NFL team ever to go 6-0 in division and still miss playoffs- they beat Chiefs 23-20 in OT in Week 9, in flagfest where there were 27 accepted penalties for 240 yards. Chiefs clinched division last week, have playoff game next week but are expected to play their regulars here. KC won five of last six games, is 7-0 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Oakland is 2-5 on road, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 25-1-8-32-7 points. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games, 4-3 if favored. Four of last five Raider games went over; three of last four KC games stayed under.

Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (13-2)—New England generally plays its guys no matter what, but cautioned advised, since they’re dead here if they decide to rest Brady (Welker tore knee up in similarly meaningless game LY). Dolphins are 6-1 on road, 1-7 at home; their only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore (+5); they’re 5-1 as road underdog. Fish lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10-21-10 points. Patriots blocked FG for TD, ran kick back for TD, were +4 in turnovers and had defensive score in 41-14 rout of Dolphins (+1) in Miami back in Week 4. AFC East home teams are 2-8 vs. spread in divisional games this year, 1-5 if favored. Eight of last nine Patriot games went over total; six of last nine Miami games stayed under. Pats are +22 in turnovers the last seven games.

Titans (6-9) @ Colts (9-6)—Indy clinches AFC South with win here, against team that lost seven of last eight games, amid reported locker room divide over QB/coach rift. Tennessee lost six of last seven visits here, losing last two years, 23-0/27-17; they lost last four road games by combined score of 116-56 after winning first three road games this season. Colts won last three games, scored 30+ points in last four behind QB Manning. Indy is 4-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 24-10-13-6-10 points (lost to Chargers/ Cowboys). Five of last six Indy games went over total, as did Titans’ last three games. AFC South home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games this season, 5-1 if favored.

Giants (9-6)@ Redskins (6-9)—Gutcheck time for Jersey squad that allowed 73 points in last 68:00, blowing 31-10 lead to Eagles, then getting waxed at Lambeau last week. Giants won five in row, eight of last nine series games, taking last four visits here by 6-7-16-33 points, but they’ve also turned ball over 41 times, six more than anyone else in NFL. Giants are 4-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites; they’re 8-0 when they give up 20 or less points. 1-6 when they give up more. Redskins snapped 4-game skid with OT win in Jacksonville last week; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. If Packers beat Bears (games are at same time), Big Blue is done. Five of last six Redskin games stayed under total. Underdogs are 7-3 vs. spread in NFC East divisional games this year.

Jaguars (8-7) @ Texans (5-10)—Jax needs win and Titan upset in Indy to claim AFC South title. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Jags losing three of last four visits here- they won first series meeting this year 31-24 (-1.5) at home, outrushing Texans 165-81, outgaining them by 96 yards in a game where they had 10-yard edge in average field position. Houston lost eight of last nine games after 4-2 start; they blew 17-0 halftime lead last week to QB making his second career start. Only team Texans held under 24 points all year was Tennessee when they started 3rd-string QB, who making first (and likely last) NFL start. Home teams are 8-2 vs. spread in AFC South divisional games, 3-1 as home dogs. Six of last eight Texan games went over total.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (5-10)—Pitt is 13-1 in last 14 series games, but did lose 13-6 here LY , ending streak of 8 straight wins on Lake Erie; Steelers need win here to wrap up AFC North title and first round bye. Pitt won 28-10 at home (-14) in first series meeting, Big Ben’s first game back from suspension- he averaged 9.8 yards/pass attempt while Browns sacked Delhomme five times. Cleveland lost last three games by 7-2-10 points, scoring average of 11 peg (3 TDs on last 26 drives)- they’re 3-4 at home, with four of the seven decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Steelers won five of last six games, are 6-1 on road, but their last four road wins were all by 6 or less points- they’re 2-2 as road favorites. AFC North underdogs are 5-5 vs. spread, 2-2 at home.

Bengals (4-11) @ Ravens (11-4)—Not many 4-11 clubs can boast of two two-game win streaks, but Cincy can; they allowed total of just 123 rushing yards in beating Browns/Chargers last two weeks, and Palmer averaged 9.1/12.6 ypa, doing better with Owens/Johnson not playing. Ravens (-2) lost 15-10 at Cincy in Week 2, as Flacco was 17-39 passing with four picks (-4 TO ratio), but they’ve won/covered last three games overall, scoring 28 ppg (8 TDs on last 30 drives). Only way this game matters is if Browns upset Steelers, then Ravens would be playing for division title and a bye. Baltimore is 3-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3-16-7-6 points (lost to Steelers at home). Bengals’ last three road games stayed under the total.

Bills (4-11) @ Jets (10-5)—Gang Green is pretty much locked into #6 seed here; how much will they play ailing players, since they have playoff game next week? Jets (-5) won 38-14 in Buffalo back in Week 4, running ball for 273 yards, outgaining Bills by 221 yards- they had 13-yard edge in field position, starting three of 13 drives in Buffalo territory. Bills are 4-3 in last seven games after 0-8 start- they covered five of last six true road games, and won three of last four visits here. Jets lost three of last four games, losing 38-34 in Chicago last week when Bears scored four TDs on drives of less than 50 yards, but at least they scored three TDs, after one TD in 31-drive slump. Seven of last nine Buffalo games stayed under total, but 11 of last 14 Jet games went over.

Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10)—Minnesota travels on very short week (played in Philly Tuesday) to face Lion squad they beat 24-10 (-11) back in Week 3, one of only three Detroit non-covers this season. Vikings outrushed Lions 183-63 in sloppy game (both teams had 3 turnovers, Vikes had 12 penalties/100 yards). Detroit is 12-3 vs. spread this year, winning last three SU, after going 4-40 SU in previous 44 games. Minnesota is 16-1 in last 17 series games, winning 7 of last 8 here- they won 20-16/27-13 in last two visits here. Not sure of motivation for Minnesota after playing three primetime games in three different cities in last three weeks. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. Home teams are 6-4 vs. spread in NFC North divisional games, 4-2 as home dogs.

Bears (11-4) @ Packers (9-6)—Green Bay needs win to clinch Wild Card; Bears clinched first round bye Tuesday, so this game is meaningless to them, other than being rivalry game. Packers (-3) lost 20-17 in Week 3 at Chicago, getting whistled for 18 penalties, 152 yards- they outgained Bears by 103 yards, still lost. Rodgers came back last week as Pack spanked Giants- GB is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with home wins by 27-2-4-38-18-28 points. Bears are now 7-1 since their bye (only loss to 13-2 Patriots); they scored 78 points in last two games (8 TDs on last 24 drives). Average total in last four series games is 36. Last five Chicago games went over total, as have three of last four green Bay games. Pack wins this game, Giants/Bucs games become meaningless for them.

Cowboys (5-10) @ Eagles (10-5)—Philly has playoff game next week, could rest injured guys here, against team they beat 30-27 three weeks ago (-4), outrushing Dallas 171-110, averaging 9.2 ypa. Eagle defense allowed 24+ points in each of last five games (17 TDs on last 55 drives). Philly is just 4-3 at home, with three of four wins by 10+ points. Cowboys are scoring 31.3 ppg since Garrett became HC, after scoring 20.1 when Phillips was in charge- not sure if Kitna is good to go here after getting banged up vs. Cardinals. If he can’t go, backup McGee makes first NFL start. He was pretty good in relief in close loss at Arizona last week. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this year, 5-2 on road. Last 12 Dallas games went over the total, as did nine of last 11 Philly games.

Panthers (2-13) @ Falcons (12-3)—Atlanta needs this game to clinch #1 seed in NFC after tough loss Monday; they whacked Carolina 31-10 (-7) three weeks ago, running ball for 212 yards, holding Panthers to 2.7 ypa. Falcons are 4-3 as home favorite, with only one home win by more than 7 points. Panthers lost last two visits here, 45-28/28-20; they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17-24 points. Carolina played last Thursday, so they had four more days than Atlanta to prepare for this, but coaches are probably looking for new jobs too, since new regime will be coming in after season. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year; home favorites are 1-5. Last three Carolina games stayed under the total.

Buccaneers (9-6) @ Saints (11-4)—Bucs can still make playoffs if they win and Packers/Giants lose; game doesn’t matter to Saints unless Carolina somehow upsets the Falcons. New Orleans (-5.5) crushed the Bucs 31-6 back in Week 6, outrushing Tampa 212-42, holding Bucs to 4.9 ypa. Saints had short week after Monday night win in rivalry game; they covered last three home games, winning by 10-15-18 points. Tampa is 2-3 in last five games, but none of the losses were by more than seven points; they’re 6-3 as an underdog this year, 6-0 on road, losing away games by 6-7 points- they’re 5-2 SU on road. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South games, 1-5 if favored. Last three Buccaneer games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (5-10)—49ers (-1.5) won first meeting 27-6 on road, outrushing Arizona 261-13; game was actually on Monday Night Football, some fine scheduling there. Niners put Singletary out of his misery Sunday night, so now assistant coaches are scrambling for jobs, probably taking time away for prep for this. Arizona is +7 in turnovers in Skelton’s three starts, with home side winning all three games. Cardinals lost last six road games after opening season with win in St Louis; they’re 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by Home teams are 6-3-1 vs. spread in NFC West divisional games, 3-2 if they’re favored. 49ers are 3-3 at home, with wins by 8-3-19 points. Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four contests.

Chargers (8-7) @ Broncos (4-11)—Rookie QB Tebow rallied Denver from a 17-0 halftime deficit to nip Texans 24-23 last week, ending their 5-game skid, but question lingers, how do you get shut out for a half by Houston? Broncos (+9.5) lost 35-14 in first meeting at San Diego six weeks ago, getting outrushed 147-63, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down. Underachieving Chargers got KO’d from playoff race last week, so full effort here is no guarantee, especially after dismal loss in Cincinnati last week. San Diego is just 2-5 on road, winning 36-14 at Indy, 29-23 at Houston- its not often an 8-7 team was underdog only once all season. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs. spread in divisional games, 3-0 as home dogs. Five of last six Charger games stayed under total.

Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (6-9)—Winner gets NFC West title; Rams advance in case of a tie, thanks to 20-3 home win (+2) vs Seattle in Week 4; St Louis had 17-yard edge in field position in that game, as Seahawks went 3/out on half its 12 drives, but conservative Rams scored only 13 points on five red zone trips. Health of Seattle QB Hasselbeck is big here, as backup Whitehurst hasn’t shown much in limited action. Not only is Seattle 6-9, but all nine losses are by 15+ points- they’ve lost last three games and seven of last nine- they’re 4-3 at home though (lost three of last four). St Louis is 2-5 on road, 2-1 in last three; they’re 6-2 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-6 when allowing more. Last eight Seattle games went over total; three of last four Ram games stayed under. Well-coached Rams are 3-1 as a favorite this season.

**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 08:29 PM

NFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Carolina is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Carolina

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants

4:15 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

4:15 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games

4:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
San Diego is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona

8:20 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of St. Louis's last 18 games
St. Louis is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

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**Udog** · 12-30-2010, 08:32 PM

AFC Breakdown: NFL Contenders vs. Pretenders

As the NFL postseason approaches, Teddy turns his focus towards the playoff contenders from each conference. This week, Teddy breaks down the top teams from the AFC into contenders and pretenders.

New England Patriots: Contender

Teams that win the turnover battle every week are very tough teams to beat. The Patriots haven’t just been winning the turnover battle every week - they’ve been completely destroying other teams in that department. New England’s plus-7 turnover ratio against Buffalo last Sunday was nothing new or different. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, with a remarkable 24-0 TD-INT ratio in his last ten ballgames.

Last year, Green Bay led the NFL by a wide margin with a plus-24 turnover margin for the entire 2009 season. Since Week 10 of the current campaign, the Patriots are a remarkable plus-22 in turnovers, a seven-week stretch of true excellence protecting the ball while creating havoc for opposing offenses.

The Patriots defense is not the most fundamentally sound unit in the NFL, allowing a very mediocre 5.6 yards per play. New England does struggle to defend many of the better balanced offenses that it’s faced in 2010, as clearly evidenced by their suspect defensive showing against Green Bay at home last Sunday Night.

And there aren’t many NFL home-field advantages greater than what the Pats enjoy in Foxboro. They are 15-0 SU at home during the regular season over the past two years and 35-4 SU at home (including playoffs) dating all the way to November, 2006. The Pats are sure to be fully focused after losing their playoff opener at home to Baltimore last January. Clearly, New England is the team to beat in the AFC with home-field edge through to the Super Bowl.

New York Jets: Pretender

Prior to last week’s win at Pittsburgh, the Jets had won eight games since Week 3. Those eight wins came against Miami (7-8), Buffalo (4-11), Minnesota (5-9), Denver (4-11), Detroit (5-10), Cleveland (5-10), Houston (5-10) and Cincinnati 4-11). That’s certainly not a who’s who of elite teams.

Even the win over the Steelers shouldn’t raise the Jets power rating in any significant way. New York was outgained on the ground and through the air, winning the game thanks to a kick return touchdown and a late safety - not because their offense and defense stepped up with stellar efforts.

The Jets are suffering some serious injuries right now as well. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has a bum shoulder, bad news for a mistake-prone QB with a terrible track record in cold weather and a 2-6 TD-INT ratio over the past five games. Starting center Damien Woody is hurt. Defensive leader Jim Leonhard is on IR and fellow safety Eric Smith hasn’t been able to suit up either, leaving their defense extremely vulnerable, as we’ve seen in each of the last two weeks against the Bears and Steelers. This team enjoyed a great postseason run last year, but I don’t expect them to be able to do it two years in a row.

Baltimore Ravens: Contender

Baltimore plays defense. The Ravens stop unit has held four of their last six opponents to 13 points or less. Ten of their 15 opponents this year have scored 17 or less against this team. We’ve seen them win outright in hostile environments, with SU wins as underdogs on the road against the Jets and Steelers. Even in defeat, the Ravens have been tough, leading late in the fourth quarter at Atlanta and New England. They are the only team to beat the Pats at home in the last two years, dominating New England wire-to-wire in last year’s impressive playoff victory in Foxboro.

And the Ravens offense is balanced and extremely tough to stop. Joe Flacco had a 35-24 TD-INT ratio in his first two years in the league. This year, he’s thrown 25 touchdowns compared to only nine interceptions, while averaging a career high 7.4 yards per attempt. Flacco’s got playmaking weapons all around him, both in the running game and the downfield passing game. Don’t sell this team short.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pretender

The Steelers offense has been broken for weeks, despite being loaded with skill-position talent. Head coach Mike Tomlin has two-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, a 1,200-yard rusher with breakaway speed (Rashard Mendenhall) at running back and the most explosive pass catcher in the AFC – Mike Wallace and his AFC best 20.2 yards per catch average. But despite all of those weapons, the Steelers have scored a grand total of seven offensive touchdowns in their last five ballgames.

Against quality defenses this season, the Steelers have produced nine points in regulation against Atlanta, 14 and 13 against Baltimore, 17 against the Jets and 10 against the Saints, not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Pittsburgh’s best defender, Troy Polamalu, is not expected to be anywhere near 100 percent for the start of the playoffs. The Steelers are 14-4 with Polamalu in the lineup but just 6-7 without him over the past two years.

Indianapolis Colts: Pretender

After a string of Peyton Manning interceptions left Indy in the midst of a rare mid-season three-game losing streak, the Colts have bounced back with three consecutive December wins, getting their season back on track. Manning threw a whopping eleven interceptions during Indy’s slide but he’s enjoyed a 7-2 TD-INT ratio during their current winning streak.

With Manning stretching the Jaguars defense, RB Donald Brown ran for 129 yards, averaging more than nine yards per carry. Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai split carries against the Raiders, combining for 143 yards on the ground between them. Indy’s offense has shown legitimate balance for the first time all year in recent weeks.

But the Colts’ injury woes continue to pile up on both sides of the ball. The offensive injuries have made more headlines with downfield weapons Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark all on injured reserve. But it’s the Colts’ defense injuries that make them pretenders for the AFC throne this year.

The Colts run defense has been spotty at best all year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Only the Redskins and Bucs have given up more yards per carry than Indianapolis in 2010. And that run defense is not likely to improve as we head towards the playoffs without a dozen injured defenders that were on the opening-day roster. This defense has allowed 24-plus points five times in their last six games - bad news going forward for last year’s AFC Super Bowl representative.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Pretender

Jacksonville isn’t likely to make the playoffs. It’ll take a collapse from Indianapolis against Tennessee at home and a Jags’ road win at Houston for Jack Del Rio’s squad to win the AFC South. But we’re still obliged to include the Jaguars as a pretender in this report. They’re still alive for the postseason heading into Week 17.

That being said, Jacksonville is missing two key elements for postseason success. First, the Jags don’t dominate at home, suffering at least three home losses in each of the last three seasons, including home defeats at the hands of the Eagles, Titans and Redskins in 2010. They’ll have to win at home in the Wild Card round if they sneak into the postseason.

And the Jags don’t play defense. The numbers don’t lie: Jacksonville ranks last in yards per play allowed, giving up a whopping 6.3 yards on every opposing snap. Teams don’t win in the playoffs without a defense that can get crucial stops or an offense that can consistently outscore their foes. The Jags have neither, leaving them extremely unlikely to make any sort of a postseason run should they get there.

Kansas City Chiefs: Contender

The most basic mantra for NFL postseason success can be stated in five words: Run and stop the run. It’s a tried-and-true formula for winning playoff games, one that has been profitable even here in the modern era of high-octane passing offenses.

The Chiefs run the football as well as any team in the NFL, leading the league in rushing yards by a wide margin. Jamaal Charles’ full season mark of 6.4 yards per carry ranks with the likes of Barry Sanders, OJ Simpson and Jim Brown. It’s been one of the quietest legendary seasons from any back in league history.

The Chiefs are also playing outstanding football in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their ability to avoid negative plays in the running game consistently puts them in positive down and distance situations and opens up the play-action passing game for Matt Cassel. As a team, the Chiefs have committed only 12 turnovers all season. Cassel has taken only 21 sacks on 438 dropbacks and his QB rating is behind only Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers.

This team has been an overachiever all year, matching their win total from 2007-2009 combined by Week 16 of 2010. Don’t sleep on the Chiefs postseason chances. They are 7-0 SU at Arrowhead this year with at least one home game on tap for the postseason.

**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 08:57 AM

NFL

Week 17

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 17
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8)

Why Buccaneers cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Orleans. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Saints cover: With the No. 1 seed in the NFC still up for grabs, New Orleans will trot out their regulars against a banged-up Buccaneers squad that they throttled 31-6 in Week 6.

Total (48): Under is 4-0 in their last four meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Why Bengals cover: They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Why Ravens cover: Joe Flacco has been almost flawless at home this year. In seven games, he has thrown 13 touchdowns and only one interception.

Total (43): Under is 5-1 in their last six meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-14.5)

Why Panthers cover: They totaled 212 yards on the ground in their last meeting, the most allowed by Atlanta this season.

Why Falcons cover: The Panthers are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. They still haven’t clinched the top seed in the NFC and could fall as far as No. 5 if they lose.

Total (41): Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings and 5-1 in their last six meetings in Atlanta.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)

Why Steelers cover: They're 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Peyton Hillis has been the Browns' main offensive weapon but he has slowed down considerably in recent weeks and no goes up against the league's top run defense.

Why Browns cover: They knocked their divisional rivals out of the playoff hunt with a big upset in Week 17 last season and will be fired up to do prevent them from capturing the AFC North title this year.

Total (37): Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Why Vikings cover: They're 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Detroit.

Why Lions cover: They are 6-4 ATS in games that quarterback Shaun Hill plays and average 24.5 points per game in his starts.

Total (42): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-1 in their last five meetings in Detroit.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Why Raiders cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Kansas City. The road team is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Chiefs cover: Coach Todd Haley said he doesn't plan to rest any of his starters even though Sunday's game is meaningless.

Total (43.5): Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 4-1 in their last five meetings in Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-1)

Why Bills cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in New York. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

Why Jets cover: Despite having clinched a playoff berth, head coach Rex Ryan is leaning towards starting Mark Sanchez Sunday in order to keep his momentum going into the playoffs.

Total (39.5): Under is 6-3 in their last nine meetings in Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-3.5)

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New England. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Patriots cover: Historically, Bill Belichick doesn't rest his starters even when they have the top seed in the AFC locked up. Expect New England's big guns to be on the field Sunday - at least until they have a big enough lead to take a seat on the bench.

Total (43.5): Over is 8-1 in New England's last nine games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (+2.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Houston has the worst secondary in the league, allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a whopping 100.7 quarterback rating against them, and are the only team in the NFL to allow a QB rating over 100.

Why Texans cover: Jacksonville will be without top offensive weapons Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard. Trent Edwards and Rashad Jennings will start in their place.

Total (49.5): Over is 5-2 in their last seven meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3.5)

Why Chargers cover: They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings and 3-0-3 ATS in their last six meetings in Denver. The Broncos' already porous defense could be without star cornerback Champ Bailey, who suffered a heel injury last week.

Why Broncos cover: In his two starts, Tim Tebow has accounted for 551 yards of total offense, four touchdowns and only one turnover. He will continue to make his case to be Denver's starting quarterback in 2011.

Total (47.5): Over is 14-6 in Denver's last 20 games and 4-2 in San Diego's last six games on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They are 2-1 ATS and straight up since John Skelton took over as the starting quarterback and are averaging 27.3 points per game in his starts.

Why 49ers cover: The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and just fired head coach Mike Singletary, leaving interim coach Jim Tomsula to lead the team in the finale of a disappointing season.

Total (38): Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings in San Francisco.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+4)

Why Giants cover: They're 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Washington. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. New York is still alive in the playoff race, but needs to win and Green Bay to lose to Chicago.

Why Redskins cover: They are 2-0 ATS and averaging 25 points per game since Rex Grossman took over as the starting quarterback from Donovan McNabb. The Giants have multiple injuries, including receiver Hakeem Nicks and center Shaun O'Hara.

Total (44): Over is 7-2 in their last nine meetings in Washington.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)

Why Bears cover: They beat Green Bay 20-17 in Week 3 as 3-point underdogs and will be pumped to clinch a first-round bye with a win while possibly knocking the Packers out of the playoff picture.

Why Packers cover: The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Aaron Rodgers showed no signs of his concussion last week, throwing for 404 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants' sixth-ranked defense.

Total (41.5): Under is 5-0 in their last five meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-10)

Why Titans cover: Kerry Collins torched the Colts 20th-ranked defense for 244 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions when Tennessee covered as a 3-point underdog in Week 14.

Why Colts cover: The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (47.5): Under is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-12)

Why Cowboys cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Their defense picked off Michael Vick twice and held him to only 16 yards rushing as Dallas covered in Week 14 as a 3.5-point underdogs. Vick is reportedly expected to sit out Week 17.

Why Eagles cover: Cowboys third-string quarterback Stephen McGee might get his first NFL start with Jon Kitna battling an oblique injury and could struggle against the NFC's sixth best defense. Philadelphia can secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win.

Total (48): Over is 4-1 in their last five meetings.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Why Rams cover: With Matt Hasselbeck banged up and unlikely to play and their running game non-existent, Seattle could have trouble moving the ball on offense. The Seahawks have also lost three straight games heading into Week 17.

Why Seahawks cover: The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Seattle. The Seahawks can steal the NFC West title with a win at home.

Total (41.5): Under is 4-2 in their last six meetings in Seattle.

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**Udog** · 12-31-2010, 06:59 PM

NFL

Week 17

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NFL Total Bias: Week 17 over/under picks
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Despite my considerable skills on the gridiron, I’d be no good to the NFL this week if the league was ever able to try to pry me away from my laptop.

You see, I’m a terrible liar.

I really haven’t progressed much since trying to weasel my way out of various indiscretions in middle school. Every time I’m trying to tell a big one my blood pressure goes through the roof. I clam up, start stuttering and sweating. Halfway through the whole ordeal I’m just wondering why I even bothered, why I just didn’t come clean.

I’d never be able to get up in front of a room full of reporters and lie my way through a press conference about whether I’m going to play or not or even if after 16 weeks of football, whether I’d much rather be on a beach somewhere instead of going out to get smacked in the mouth again.

Since I’m such of a terrible liar, I feel like I’m a pretty good lie detector, but this week I’m lost trying to figure out who I can trust in Week 17.

Will Lovie Smith really play his starters against Green Bay this week? I dunno. Will Tom Brady even take a snap against Miami? No idea, but he shouldn’t and don’t even get me started about Favre.

The NFL has tried to give the injury reports some sort of credibility in recent years, though it’s still a guessing game and I’m not sure there’s any real way to get around this in Week 17.

If you’re new to this column, you missed out on a hopelessly average regular season of total picks. I got off to a dreadful start, so it’s really pretty much a miracle that I’m within striking distance of ending the year above .500.

And now that I’ve given myself the kiss of death, let’s get on to this week’s guessing game.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (41.5)

As much as we all detest the pitiful NFC West division, at least it all comes down to this final game. I’m all over the Rams in this spot. I like what St. Louis started this year. Sam Bradford looks like a legit NFL quarterback and the defense is a lot further ahead than I thought it would be at this point.

The Seahawks say that Charlie Whitehurst will be their guy taking the snaps, though there is still some speculation that Matt Hasselbeck could be ready to go by game time. The Seahawks had better hope he is. Whitehurst completed 11 of his 16 throws for only 66 yards after Hasselbeck hurt his hip last week against Tampa Bay.

Either way, I think Steven Jackson has a big day and sets up some nice throwing opportunities for Bradford.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (48)

Was there really any doubt that Peyton Manning was going to lead his club to three straight wins so that the Colts had this shot at the postseason? Manning threw seven touchdowns to only two interceptions over that stretch and the offense is really starting to hum now that the running game is contributing a bit.

He torched the Titans for 319 yards and two touchdowns a few weeks ago and I’m thinking we’ll see similar stats from No. 18 again this weekend though it’s impossible to know what we’ll get from the Titans. Jeff Fisher said earlier this week that Tennessee may experiment a bit on offense this week, which can’t be a good thing.

Pick: Under

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3, 47)

The Chargers have to be wondering what might have been if they hold only taken care of their situation with Vincent Jackson before it was too late. This team is such a waste of talent.

With Tim Tebow looking to prove he can lead an NFL offense, I think the Broncos will be competitive this week, which means they’ll have to keep up with San Diego’s attack.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 24-25

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**Udog** · 01-01-2011, 10:55 PM

NFL

Week 17

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NFL Week 17 weather report: Wet and windy season finales
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Just when you needed another unpredictable factor in Week 17, the first weekend of 2011 chucks some nasty winter weather at the NFL. Find out which regular season finales could get wet, wild and windy Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 37)

Adding to that puzzling 5.5-point spread will be snow flurries and winds blowing of speeds up to 20 mph in Cleveland. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid teens.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 39.5)

It’s fitting that rain will dampen the finale for two teams closing out very disappointing seasons Sunday. The forecast in San Francisco is calling for the wet stuff along with 10-mph winds and game-time temperatures in the mid 40s.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 41.5)

The Bears, who have locked up a playoff spot, could really care less about the strong winds plaguing play in Lambeau Field Sunday. The forecast in Green Bay is calling for strong gust of up to 25 mph and game-time temperatures cooling off to around zero.

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**Udog** · 01-01-2011, 11:00 PM

NFL

Week 17

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Sunday Night Football: Rams at Seahawks
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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+3, 41.5)

THE STORY: It's as straightforward as it gets: The winner wins the NFC West title and the loser goes home with a losing record. The NFL higher-ups are probably rooting for a win by St. Louis Rams - and not because it's a more captivating story line following their 1-15 season in 2009. If the Seahawks win, both teams will finish 7-9 and the mild, mild West will be won by a team with a losing record. Seattle is expected to be without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, leaving their playoff hopes in the hands of Charlie Whitehurst.

TV: 8:15 p.m. EST, NBC

OPENING LINE: Rams -1, O/U 43

The spread has been bet up to a field goal with action on the Rams. The total has dropped from 43 points to 41.5 as of Saturday afternoon.

WEATHER: Mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 40s. Light winds of speeds up to 5 mph.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (6-9, 6-9 ATS): Seattle comes limping into the showdown off three consecutive losses in which they have been outscored 112-54. The Seahawks' only two victories in the last nine games have come against Arizona and Carolina, which sport a combined 7-23 record. In addition, they likely will be without Hasselbeck, who is dealing with hip and back injuries that forced him out of last week's 38-15 drubbing in Tampa Bay. Whitehurst, who was acquired from San Diego in the offseason, replaced him and finished 11 of 18 for 66 yards. That's an average of 3.7 yards per completion.

ABOUT THE RAMS (7-8, 10-5 ATS): St. Louis ended a two-game losing streak with a 25-17 victory over division rival San Francisco last week. Rookie Sam Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft, threw for 292 yards and a touchdown in the victory. The Rams have had the good fortune of playing a schedule that features just five teams with winning records (they lost four of those games), but after going 6-42 in their three previous seasons, the turnaround has been stunning. Steven Jackson was limited to 48 yards by the 49ers, but he has 1,196 yards on the season - the sixth straight year he's gone over 1,000 yards.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola had eight receptions for 53 yards last week, giving him a career-high 83 catches on the season. He also had five kick/punt returns for 177 yards. St. Louis' defense recorded four sacks against San Francisco, giving the unit 43 on the season. Chris Long has eight sacks in the last 10 games.

Seattle's Mike Williams, a former first-round pick, was among the league's top feel-good stories after recording double-digit receptions in back-to-back games near midseason. Since missing three games with an injury, however, he has struggled to regain his form. He had just two catches for 15 yards in the debacle at Tampa Bay.

QUARTERBACKS: Bradford has been everything the Rams could have hoped for in his rookie campaign. Last week, he snapped out of a three-game funk in which he had thrown zero touchdowns and been picked off five times. Bradford set an NFL rookie record with 335 completions, and can wind up with the second-highest yardage total for a rookie QB if he throws for 84 yards against the Seahawks.

If Hasselbeck is unable to go, Seattle's chances take a major hit with Whitehurst under center. He has appeared in parts of four games this season and his highest passer rating (68.3) came in last week's loss to the Buccaneers. His only other start this season was a disaster, as the Seahawks were routed at home by the New York Giants 41-7. Playing behind Philip Rivers in San Diego, Whitehurst never got a chance to see the field.

RECENT HISTORY: St. Louis snapped a 10-game losing streak against Seattle with a 20-3 in Week 4.

KEY INJURIES: Rams: Questionable – DE Eugene Sims (knee), LB David Nixon (hand), TE Michael Hoomanawanui (ankle); Seahawks: Doubtful – QB Matt Hasselbeck (hip); Questionable: WR Brandon Stokley (head), LB Will Herring (hamstring).

LAST WORD: St. Louis kicker Josh Brown spent his first five seasons with Seattle. In a five-week span in 2006, he booted two last-second field goals to give Seattle a pair of two-point wins over the Rams.

TRENDS:

- Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
- Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Seattle.
- Rams are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
- Under is 10-3-1 in Rams' last 14 games vs. NFC West.
- Over is 8-0 in Seahawks' last eight games overall.

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**Spark** · 01-02-2011, 10:15 AM

Take a look up and down the NFL schedule this Sunday and what do you find; A division orgy! Curiously, for the first time in NFL history, all 16 games are division matchups. In an attempt to prevent teams from ‘laying down’ the final week of the season, the NFL brass went to the schedule maker and mandated all season ending contests be division confrontations. This unprecedented move appears to have worked as a good majority of games this weekend find teams with a plethora of playoff implications inside the matchups.

And because, for all intents and purposes, division games take on a double-importance both in the standings and in NFL tiebreakers, this week’s games certainly take on a whole new stratagem. That being the case, here are some notes of interest from our powerful database in games played in the past involving division pairings in regular season finales. Please note all results are Against The Spread (ATS) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

• SIZE MATTERS
--------------------
--The pointspread is a string barometer when it comes to season ending division games. That’s because favorites of nine or more points are 20-12, while favorites of less than three points are 12-20-1... 666 or greater teams laying nine or more points are 17-5, while favorites of less then three points are only 6-14-1 when facing .500 or greater opponents.

• MARGIN CALL
--------------------
--Teams off ATS spread margins at opposite ends of the ladder have performed accordingly. Those entering off a spread loss of 25 or more points are 15-10-1, including 9-3 versus and opponent off an ATS win... On the flip side, those off a spread loss of 25 or more points are 7-13, including 2-9 versus a foe off a win.

• BAD DOGS
----------------
--Simply put, there is no disguising bad teams in season ending division finales. Those who were dogs of nine or more points the previous week are 9-17 in these contests, including 3-11 when taking seven or more points this week... >Worse, put these seven-plus point dogs at home and they vanish into thin air, going 0-7.

• ONE AND DONE
----------------------
--Put a team in a season ending division finale off one win-exact and they tend to dissolve faster than a patty melt at an over-eaters luncheon. Teams in this role are 7-20 when playing off a win of 16 or more points, including 1-15 when favored. There you have it, a quick glimpse at some of the more intriguing situations surrounding this week’s season ending NFL card. Divvy them up and enjoy the feast.

Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!

______________________________

***** SUNDAY, JANUARY 2ND NFL INFORMATION *****
______________________________________________

(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________________ _____

• 2-MINUTE DRILL
-----------------------
--Oakland SERIES: 4-0 L4 A... Visitor in Chiefs series 8-1... 1-6 SU Game Sixteen... 1-7 UNDER away vs div revenge
--KANSAS CITY 4-1 Game Sixteen... 6-2 H off SUATS win vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)... 0-11 HF’s off SU fav win (0-2 this year)... 1-8 H off BB non div (1-2 this year)... 2-6 off BB SUATS wins vs < .500 opp (1-1 this year)

--Miami SERIES: 3-0 L3 A... 4-0 A vs opp off 3+ SU wins... 6-1 vs .666 > div opp (1-1 this year)... 6-1 off SU fav non conf loss (1-0 this year)... SPARANO: 12-1 RD Game 4 > (3-1 this year)... 9-1 O/U Game Sixteen
--NEW ENGLAND 12-0 off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU losses (2-0 this year)... 8-0 off DD SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses... 12-1 H vs opp off SU fav loss (0-1 this year)... 16-3 off SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses... 9-2 Game Sixteen... 7-2 off div RG vs opp off SUATS loss (0-1 this year)

--Tennessee 1-4 Game Sixteen... 3-9 < .500 dogs w/rev vs div opp (1-0 this year)... 0-7 UNDER div dogs 4 > pts
--INDIANAPOLIS SERIES: 3-1 L4/5-2 L7 H... 0-6 favs in LHG... 1-7 Game Sixteen... 3-16 vs < .500 div opp w/rev (0-2 this year) ... 0-4 UNDER div HF’s 5 >

--Jacksonville SERIES: 3-0 L3/1-3 L4 A... 7-1 A off SUATS loss vs div opp off SUATS loss... 0-8 vs opp off BB RG’s (0-1 this year)... 0-7 RF’s vs div opp off SU loss... 0-4 Game Sixteen
--HOUSTON 8-1 w/rev vs div opp off HG (1-0 this year)... 9-3 dogs off BB SU losses (1-1 this year)... KUBIAK: 12-1 < .500 H vs opp off fav role (1-1 this year)... 4-1 O/U Game Sixteen

--Pittsburgh SERIES: 5-2 L7 A... 5-1 SU Game Sixteen... 2-9 A vs div opp off DD SU loss w/rev... 2-7 RF’s > 3 pts (1-1 this year)
--CLEVELAND 8-2 w/rev vs .600 > div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)... 5-1 aft Ravens... 0-7 off BB SU losses vs opp off DD non div ATS H win... MANGINI: 10-1 off div & BB SU losses (2-1 this year)... 1-6 O/U Game Sixteen

--Cincinnati SERIES: 9-3 L12... 5-0 dogs off SU dog win... 1-7 dogs vs div opp off div w/rev... 1-5 off BB SUATS wins vs opp w/rev (0-1 this year)
--BALTIMORE 9-0 vs < .500 div opp off DD ATS win... 6-1 SU Game Sixteen... 6-2 favs vs opp off SU dog win (2-1 this year)... 0-10 w/rev off BB SUATS wins

--Minnesota SERIES: 7-2 L9/3-1 L4 A... 8-2 dogs 9 < pts 2nd BB RG’s (0-1 this year)... 1-9 dogs < 7 pts vs opp off BB SU wins (1-4 this year)... 2-8 Game Sixteen
--DETROIT 11-0 HF’s < 10 pts off BB SU wins... 9-0 div favs off BB SUATS wins... 1-6 off SU dog win vs conf opp (1-0 this year)... 1-6 HF’s vs .333 < opp... 7-1 O/U Game Sixteen

--NY Giants SERIES: 4-1 L5/4-0 L4 A... 5-1 Game Sixteen... COUGHLIN: 8-1 aft allowing 35 > pts vs < .500 opp
--WASHINGTON 3-1 Game Sixteen... 1-11 vs div opp who allowed 35 > pts LG... 2-13 < .500 vs .500 > div opp off SU loss... 2-8 div HD’s (1-1 this year)... SHANAHAN: 13-0 < .500 dog vs opp off SU loss (4-0 this year)

--Chicago SERIES: 1-4 L5... 5-1 O/U Game Sixteen... 1-5 UNDER L6 vs Packers
--GREEN BAY 15-1 SU Game Sixteen... 9-2 H off DD SU win... 1-6-2 H vs .700 > opp... MCCARTHY: 8-2 vs div opp off SU win (1-1 this year)

--Dallas SERIES: 4-0 L4... 1-6 Game Sixteen... 4-1 OVER dogs in 2nd of BB RG’s
--PHILADELPHIA 1-5 Game Sixteen... REID: 12-3 H vs opp off SU fav loss w/rev (1-1 this year)

--Buffalo SERIES: 4-0 L4 A... Visitor in Jets series 8-1... 16-5 aft Patriots... 1-6 SU Game Sixteen
--NY JETS 4-1 SU Game Sixteen... 1-11 .250 > favs off BB non div vs opp off SUATS loss (1-1 this year)

--Carolina 8-0 DD dogs w/rev... 10-1 w/rev off AFC vs div opp... 4-1 Game Sixteen... FOX: 10-3 dog off one loss exact (0-1 this year)... FOX: 0-12 vs .777 > opp (0-2 this year)
--ATLANTA SERIES: 3-1 L4/9-4 L13 H... 3-1 Game Sixteen... 1-4 UNDER off Monday night

--Tampa Bay 8-0 dogs off DD SUATS non div win (1-0 this year)... 0-4 off SU win vs opp off Monday night... 1-6 SU Game Sixteen
--NEW ORLEANS SERIES: 4-1 L5/1-6 L7 H... 0-5 SU Game Sixteen... 1-9 H off div vs div opp off SUATS win

--St. Louis 16-0 vs opp off 3+ SU losses, last by DD (1-0 this year)... 11-1 off SUATS win vs div opp off DD SU loss (1-0 this year)... 1-11 favs off BB HG’s vs < .500 opp... SPAGNUOLO: 8-2 A vs < .500 opp (4-1 this year)... 6-2 O/U Game Sixteen
--SEATTLE SERIES: 6-1 L7/3-0 L3 H... 15-4 off BB SU losses (2-1 this year)... 0-7 H off SU loss w/rev vs < .500 div opp... 1-3 SU Game Sixteen

--Arizona Visitor in 49ers series 10-1... 6-1 Game Sixteen... 0-4 L4 off SU win... 1-6 L7 road dog
--SAN FRANCISCO SERIES: 5-1 L6/1-4 L5 H... 8-1 favs < 10 pts vs .333 < opp off SU win... 4-1 SU Game Sixteen... 1-6 aft Rams
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• SITUATIONAL TEAM POWER TRENDS
------------------------------------------------
The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Team Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations (i.e. coming off a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high number passing yards, etc.)
__________________________________________________ ________

--CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was CHICAGO 19.2, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*)

--ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 31.6, OPPONENT 12.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 24.6, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 21.2, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 30.9, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 24, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 30.9, OPPONENT 15 - (Rating = 3*)
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--DALLAS is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 27.2, OPPONENT 30.8 - (Rating = 7*)

--DALLAS is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 6*)

--DENVER is 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 30, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 5*)

--NY JETS are 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was NY JETS 25.4, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 5*)

--MIAMI is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 18.3, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 4*)

--NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 30.4, OPPONENT 28.8 - (Rating = 4*)

--DALLAS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was DALLAS 24.6, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 4*)

--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season.
The average score was DALLAS 26.4, OPPONENT 33.7 - (Rating = 4*)

--SEATTLE is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 19.8, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 4*)

**Spark** · 01-02-2011, 10:17 AM

*** SUNDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
---------------------------------------
• #301 RAIDERS (7-8) @ #302 CHIEFS (10-5) - Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Oakland winning last three visits here; Raiders could become first NFL team ever to go 6-0 in division and still miss playoffs- they beat Chiefs 23-20 in OT in Week 9, in flagfest where there were 27 accepted penalties for 240 yards. Chiefs clinched division last week, have playoff game next week but are expected to play their regulars here. KC won five of last six games, is 7-0 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Oakland is 2-5 on road, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 25-1-8-32-7 points. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games, 4-3 if favored. Four of last five Raider games went over; three of last four KC games stayed under.

• #303 DOLPHINS (7-8) @ #304 PATRIOTS (13-2) - New England generally plays its guys no matter what, but cautioned advised, since they’re dead here if they decide to rest Brady (Welker tore knee up in similarly meaningless game LY). Dolphins are 6-1 on road, 1-7 at home; their only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore (+5); they’re 5-1 as road underdog. Fish lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10-21-10 points. Patriots blocked FG for TD, ran kick back for TD, were +4 in turnovers and had defensive score in 41-14 rout of Dolphins (+1) in Miami back in Week 4. AFC East home teams are 2-8 vs. spread in divisional games this year, 1-5 if favored. Eight of last nine Patriot games went over total; six of last nine Miami games stayed under. Pats are +22 in turnovers the last seven games.

• #305 TITANS (6-9) @ #306 COLTS (9-6) - Indy clinches AFC South with win here, against team that lost seven of last eight games, amid reported locker room divide over QB/coach rift. Tennessee lost six of last seven visits here, losing last two years, 23-0/27-17; they lost last four road games by combined score of 116-56 after winning first three road games this season. Colts won last three games, scored 30+ points in last four behind QB Manning. Indy is 4-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 24-10-13-6-10 points (lost to Chargers/ Cowboys). Five of last six Indy games went over total, as did Titans’ last three games. AFC South home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games this season, 5-1 if favored.

• #307 JAGUARS (8-7) @ #308 TEXANS (5-10) - Jax needs win and Titan upset in Indy to claim AFC South title. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Jags losing three of last four visits here- they won first series meeting this year 31-24 (-1.5) at home, outrushing Texans 165-81, outgaining them by 96 yards in a game where they had 10-yard edge in average field position. Houston lost eight of last nine games after 4-2 start; they blew 17-0 halftime lead last week to QB making his second career start. Only team Texans held under 24 points all year was Tennessee when they started 3rd-string QB, who making first (and likely last) NFL start. Home teams are 8-2 vs. spread in AFC South divisional games, 3-1 as home dogs. Six of last eight Texan games went over total.

• #309 STEELERS (11-4) @ #310 BROWNS (5-10) - Pitt is 13-1 in last 14 series games, but did lose 13-6 here LY , ending streak of 8 straight wins on Lake Erie; Steelers need win here to wrap up AFC North title and first round bye. Pitt won 28-10 at home (-14) in first series meeting, Big Ben’s first game back from suspension- he averaged 9.8 yards/pass attempt while Browns sacked Delhomme five times. Cleveland lost last three games by 7-2-10 points, scoring average of 11 peg (3 TDs on last 26 drives)- they’re 3-4 at home, with four of the seven decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Steelers won five of last six games, are 6-1 on road, but their last four road wins were all by 6 or less points- they’re 2-2 as road favorites. AFC North underdogs are 5-5 vs. spread, 2-2 at home.

• #311 BENGALS (4-11) @ #312 RAVENS (11-4) - Not many 4-11 clubs can boast of two two-game win streaks, but Cincy can; they allowed total of just 123 rushing yards in beating Browns/Chargers last two weeks, and Palmer averaged 9.1/12.6 ypa, doing better with Owens/Johnson not playing. Ravens (-2) lost 15-10 at Cincy in Week 2, as Flacco was 17-39 passing with four picks (-4 TO ratio), but they’ve won/covered last three games overall, scoring 28 ppg (8 TDs on last 30 drives). Only way this game matters is if Browns upset Steelers, then Ravens would be playing for division title and a bye. Baltimore is 3-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3-16-7-6 points (lost to Steelers at home). Bengals’ last three road games stayed under the total.

• #313 VIKINGS (6-9) @ #314 LIONS (5-10) - Minnesota travels on very short week (played in Philly Tuesday) to face Lion squad they beat 24-10 (-11) back in Week 3, one of only three Detroit non-covers this season. Vikings outrushed Lions 183-63 in sloppy game (both teams had 3 turnovers, Vikes had 12 penalties/100 yards). Detroit is 12-3 vs. spread this year, winning last three SU, after going 4-40 SU in previous 44 games. Minnesota is 16-1 in last 17 series games, winning 7 of last 8 here- they won 20-16/27-13 in last two visits here. Not sure of motivation for Minnesota after playing three primetime games in three different cities in last three weeks. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. Home teams are 6-4 vs. spread in NFC North divisional games, 4-2 as home dogs.

• #315 GIANTS (9-6) @ #316 REDSKINS (6-9) - Gutcheck time for Jersey squad that allowed 73 points in last 68:00, blowing 31-10 lead to Eagles, then getting waxed at Lambeau last week. Giants won five in row, eight of last nine series games, taking last four visits here by 6-7-16-33 points, but they’ve also turned ball over 41 times, six more than anyone else in NFL. Giants are 4-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites; they’re 8-0 when they give up 20 or less points. 1-6 when they give up more. Redskins snapped 4-game skid with OT win in Jacksonville last week; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. If Packers beat Bears (games are at same time), Big Blue is done. Five of last six Redskin games stayed under total. Underdogs are 7-3 vs. spread in NFC East divisional games this year.

• #317 BEARS (11-4) @ #318 PACKERS (9-6) - Green Bay needs win to clinch Wild Card; Bears clinched first round bye Tuesday, so this game is meaningless to them, other than being rivalry game. Packers (-3) lost 20-17 in Week 3 at Chicago, getting whistled for 18 penalties, 152 yards- they outgained Bears by 103 yards, still lost. Rodgers came back last week as Pack spanked Giants- GB is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with home wins by 27-2-4-38-18-28 points. Bears are now 7-1 since their bye (only loss to 13-2 Patriots); they scored 78 points in last two games (8 TDs on last 24 drives). Average total in last four series games is 36. Last five Chicago games went over total, as have three of last four green Bay games. Pack wins this game, Giants/Bucs games become meaningless for them.

• #319 COWBOYS (5-10) @ #320 EAGLES (10-5) - Philly has playoff game next week, could rest injured guys here, against team they beat 30-27 three weeks ago (-4), outrushing Dallas 171-110, averaging 9.2 ypa. Eagle defense allowed 24+ points in each of last five games (17 TDs on last 55 drives). Philly is just 4-3 at home, with three of four wins by 10+ points. Cowboys are scoring 31.3 ppg since Garrett became HC, after scoring 20.1 when Phillips was in charge- not sure if Kitna is good to go here after getting banged up vs. Cardinals. If he can’t go, backup McGee makes first NFL start. He was pretty good in relief in close loss at Arizona last week. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this year, 5-2 on road. Last 12 Dallas games went over the total, as did nine of last 11 Philly games.

• #321 BILLS (4-11) @ #322 JETS (10-5) - Gang Green is pretty much locked into #6 seed here; how much will they play ailing players, since they have playoff game next week? Jets (-5) won 38-14 in Buffalo back in Week 4, running ball for 273 yards, outgaining Bills by 221 yards- they had 13-yard edge in field position, starting three of 13 drives in Buffalo territory. Bills are 4-3 in last seven games after 0-8 start- they covered five of last six true road games, and won three of last four visits here. Jets lost three of last four games, losing 38-34 in Chicago last week when Bears scored four TDs on drives of less than 50 yards, but at least they scored three TDs, after one TD in 31-drive slump. Seven of last nine Buffalo games stayed under total, but 11 of last 14 Jet games went over.

• #323 PANTHERS (2-13) @ #324 FALCONS (12-3) - Atlanta needs this game to clinch #1 seed in NFC after tough loss Monday; they whacked Carolina 31-10 (-7) three weeks ago, running ball for 212 yards, holding Panthers to 2.7 ypa. Falcons are 4-3 as home favorite, with only one home win by more than 7 points. Panthers lost last two visits here, 45-28/28-20; they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17-24 points. Carolina played last Thursday, so they had four more days than Atlanta to prepare for this, but coaches are probably looking for new jobs too, since new regime will be coming in after season. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year; home favorites are 1-5. Last three Carolina games stayed under the total.

• #325 BUCCANEERS (9-6) @ #326 SAINTS (11-4) - Bucs can still make playoffs if they win and Packers/Giants lose; game doesn’t matter to Saints unless Carolina somehow upsets the Falcons. New Orleans (-5.5) crushed the Bucs 31-6 back in Week 6, outrushing Tampa 212-42, holding Bucs to 4.9 ypa. Saints had short week after Monday night win in rivalry game; they covered last three home games, winning by 10-15-18 points. Tampa is 2-3 in last five games, but none of the losses were by more than seven points; they’re 6-3 as an underdog this year, 6-0 on road, losing away games by 6-7 points- they’re 5-2 SU on road. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South games, 1-5 if favored. Last three Buccaneer games stayed under the total.

• #327 RAMS (7-8) @ #328 SEAHAWKS (6-9) - Winner gets NFC West title; Rams advance in case of a tie, thanks to 20-3 home win (+2) vs Seattle in Week 4; St Louis had 17-yard edge in field position in that game, as Seahawks went 3/out on half its 12 drives, but conservative Rams scored only 13 points on five red zone trips. Health of Seattle QB Hasselbeck is big here, as backup Whitehurst hasn’t shown much in limited action. Not only is Seattle 6-9, but all nine losses are by 15+ points- they’ve lost last three games and seven of last nine- they’re 4-3 at home though (lost three of last four). St Louis is 2-5 on road, 2-1 in last three; they’re 6-2 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-6 when allowing more. Last eight Seattle games went over total; three of last four Ram games stayed under. Well-coached Rams are 3-1 as a favorite this season.

• #329 CARDINALS (5-10) @ #330 49ERS (5-10) - 49ers (-1.5) won first meeting 27-6 on road, outrushing Arizona 261-13; game was actually on Monday Night Football, some fine scheduling there. Niners put Singletary out of his misery Sunday night, so now assistant coaches are scrambling for jobs, probably taking time away for prep for this. Arizona is +7 in turnovers in Skelton’s three starts, with home side winning all three games. Cardinals lost last six road games after opening season with win in St Louis; they’re 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by Home teams are 6-3-1 vs. spread in NFC West divisional games, 3-2 if they’re favored. 49ers are 3-3 at home, with wins by 8-3-19 points. Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four contests.

• #331 CHARGERS (8-7) @ #332 BRONCOS (4-11) - Rookie QB Tebow rallied Denver from a 17-0 halftime deficit to nip Texans 24-23 last week, ending their 5-game skid, but question lingers, how do you get shut out for a half by Houston? Broncos (+9.5) lost 35-14 in first meeting at San Diego six weeks ago, getting outrushed 147-63, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down. Underachieving Chargers got KO’d from playoff race last week, so full effort here is no guarantee, especially after dismal loss in Cincinnati last week. San Diego is just 2-5 on road, winning 36-14 at Indy, 29-23 at Houston- its not often an 8-7 team was underdog only once all season. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs. spread in divisional games, 3-0 as home dogs. Five of last six Charger games stayed under total.

**Spark** · 01-02-2011, 10:18 AM

• AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
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Amazingly, the Seahawks could become only the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs having lost seven of their last 10 encounters. That’s remarkable when you consider their nine losses have been by 15 or more points, and that no previous playoff team has had more than six losses by 15-plus points. Like them or not, Seattle takes the field an 'AWESOME' 23-7-1 ATS off back-to-back losses, including 13-2-1, (86.7%) ATS at home. These 'Birds' from the North-West are also 17-6 SU and ATS in Last Home Games, including going a 'PERFECT' 7-0 ATS off a loss.

Furthermore, this series has been a nightmare for St Louis, as they are just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS the last eleven meetings, including 0-3 SU and ATS (outscored 98-19) the last three here. Yes, Louie may be 14-2 SU and 16-0 ATS in tussles against an opponent off three or more losses with the last by double-digits, but the bottom line is we simply can’t trust the young Rams in this pressure-packed situation in the role of road chalk. "Not with a head coach that stands 3-15 straight up in scuffles versus .400 or greater opposition!"
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• NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
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HC Bill Belichick can never be accused of talking a dive, not with his 8-2 SU/ATS log in LHG, along with his 12-4 ATS mark at home in the final-four skirmishes’ of the season versus a foe off a loss reminds us of that! However, the Dolphins are one of the few NFL-Outfits that ‘Billy has been unable to fry (12-9 SU and 11-10 ATS) on a regular basis, especially when the Fish are seeking revenge (2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS). Even in their MNF home loss to these ‘Pats back in September, Miami managed to win the ‘ITS’ battle by a considerable 135 yards. Despite setting a League record by winning five more games on the road (6-1) than at home (1-7), the Dolphins will be hitting the South Florida golf courses this postseason!

However, that won’t stop us from backing the road warriors who would be foolish to leave home without "Tuff Tony Sparano, not to mention our 'NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK' which tells us to: PLAY ON - Any NFL Game Sixteen road underdog of 3.5 points or more with revenge versus a division opponent off a double-digit win. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 13-2, 86.7%.

Not only is the third-year head coach 15-8 SU and 17-6 ATS on the road, including 13-1 ATS as a dog from Game Four out, the visitor in his final four games of the season is 9-2 SU and a ‘PERFECT’ 11-0 ATS. “There is concern that the Fish may freeze in this colder-than normal northeast weather but Tonys’ road record leaves us little choice but to take the frigid plunge!”
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• INCREDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK
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The Ravens punched a playoff ticket with its win over the Browns last weekend and now need a victory or a tie along with a Pittsburgh loss to steal the AFC North. With the Bengals checking in at 4-11, the first part may actually be easier done than said. However, lets not forget that one of those wins came at the expense of the Ravens earlier this season and that Marvin Lewis’ troops are 9-4 SU and ATS in this series since 2004, including 4-2 SU and ATS on this field. Though the Ravens are a crowd-pleasing 5-0 SU and ATS in Last Home Games, they also provide us with our 'INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK' - 1-14 ATS (-13.4 units) with revenge off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.

And despite going 3-1 SU in December, they lost the ‘ITS’ (In the Stats) battle on three of those occasions. As for the Bengals, the T.Ocho show has been temporarily suspended due to injury. But that didn’t stop Carson Palmer and company from lighting up the scoreboard for their highest total this season (34) in last week’s upset of the Chargers. "It’s doubtful that these ‘Cats will put up that many on the Ravens defense, but their 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS record as an underdog, off a SU dog win suggests they’re worth more than a look!"
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• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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Speaking of Head Coaches who we didn’t need to see in 2010, Mike Shanahan is certainly near the top of our list. Though he’s picked up a few more wins from last year’s 4-12 debacle, he’s turned the once proud Redskins franchise into a three-ring circus, equipped with a fat QB and a lazy lineman. Shanahan hasn’t been able to tame his troops all season and we don’t think he’ll be able to start this afternoon, especially considering the Giants are hanging on by a thread. Though they no longer control their playoff destiny, and have allowed 73 points in their last five quarters, the Redskins are one 'Gang that the G-Men will welcome with open arms. New York has owned the series since '06, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, including a 31-7 win less than a month ago.

Our ROCK~SOLID database thinks another blowout may be in store here in DC on Sunday, as Washington is just 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS versus a division opponent who allowed 35 or more points in their previous contest. The ‘Skins are also 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS when they own a losing record and are facing a .500 or greater division opponent off a loss. And while Shanahan hasn’t been the ringleader for those trends, he checks in 1-8 ATS at home off a SU dog win when taking on a divisional foe. He’s also just 2-11 ATS versus his division in the season’s final four games.

His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, on the other hand arrives with some "AMAZING' numbers. The sourpuss head coach is 24-8-1 ATS versus a foe off a SU dog win, including 9-1 ATS when he’s off back-to-back losses. Coughlin is also a determined 11-3 ATS in season-enders in his career. "Good numbers, indeed, but the kicker is his 13-3-1 ATS record (81.3%) against the NFC-East - when off a loss of 12 or more points, including 7-1 ATS when favored!"

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