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**StarDust Bum** · 12-30-2010, 07:03 PM

Injuries abound in Jazz-Blazers matchup

UTAH JAZZ (22-10)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (16-16)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Even, Total: 188

When the Jazz and Blazers meet for the third time this season -- and second time in three days -- both teams will be short-handed. Utah forward Andrei Kirilenko (back) and Portland guard Brandon Roy (knee) will not play Thursday, while Blazers C/F Marcus Camby is questionable due to a sprained ankle and Jazz F/G C.J. Miles has the flu and will be a game-time decision.

The season series is tied 1-1, with each team winning on the other’s home court. Utah won 103-94 in Portland on Nov. 20, holding the Blazers to 38.0 percent shooting (35-92 FG) and just 4-of-22 from three-point range. The Jazz shot 48.0 percent (36-75 FG), including 10-of-19 from behind the arc, and made all 21 free-throw attempts.

The second matchup didn’t go as well for Utah as it lost 96-91 on Monday with four days of rest. Deron Williams (22.4 PPG, 9.4 APG) had 31 points (11-16 FG), including 6-of-8 from three-point range. The Jazz only shot 43.2 percent (32-74 FG) from the floor, but drained 10-of-20 from behind the arc. LaMarcus Aldridge (19.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) led Portland with 26 points (10-19 FG), as the team shot 47.1 percent (33-70 FG).

The Blazers lost the next night in Denver, 95-77, and were without Marcus Camby (6.3 PPG, 10.9 RPG) in addition to Brandon Roy (16.6 PPG), who has missed six straight games with a knee injury. Aldridge has stepped up his game in Roy’s absence, averaging 25.1 points and 11.3 rebounds in the past seven contests.

The Jazz won Wednesday in L.A. against the Clippers, 103-95, without Miles (12.1 PPG) or Kirilenko (11.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG). Utah could really use Miles Thursday, as he scored 25 points (8-13 FG) and made 5-of-7 three-pointers in the fourth quarter in the first meeting against the Trail Blazers.

The Blazers return to the Rose Garden where they are an impressive 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. Since losing to Utah in November, which began a six-game losing skid, Portland has gone 6-1 SU at home (4-3 ATS).

Utah has also been successful on the road with an 11-4 mark and an impressive 10-5 ATS. On the second end of back-to-back games, the Jazz are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. With Utah playing well on the road and its impressive play on the back end of consecutive games, I pick them to win for a second time in Portland this season.

Utah is 7-3 SU and ATS against Portland over the past three seasons, and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also expects Utah to win:

Play Against - Home teams (PORTLAND) - poor three point shooting team (<=33%) against an average 3-PT defense (33-36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (58-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.9%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*).

UTAH is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 102.1, OPPONENT 94.5 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also side with the Over.

UTAH is 22-6 OVER (78.6%, +15.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 107.4, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-30-2010, 07:04 PM

Spurs take on Nowitzki-less Mavericks

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (27-4)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (24-6)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -2.5, Total: 191.5

Dallas will be without All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki (knee) as it hosts the NBA's best team on Thursday night. The Spurs continue to lead the league in win percentage (.871) after crushing the reigning champion Lakers in a 97-82 win at home on Tuesday. San Antonio held L.A. to a season-low 35.4 FG Pct. and outscored the Lakers 55-38 in the second half, despite a poor shooting night. The Spurs only shot 42.5 FG Pct. (37-87), including a lowly 28.1 percent (9-32 FG) from behind the arc; a rarity for the league’s best three-point shooting team (40.2%).

San Antonio has played at home for most of December and is just 1-2 (SU and ATS) in away games this month. Its most recent road contest was a 123-101 defeat in Orlando on Dec. 23. Overall, the Spurs are an excellent 9-2 SU (7-3-1 ATS) in away games. Their high-scoring offense continues to produce big numbers this season, averaging 105.9 PPG, while holding opponents to 97.6 PPG.

The Spurs have struggled in Dallas over the past three seasons, winning only 2-of-9 straight up (2-6-1 ATS). However, Thursday night’s matchup looks favorable for the Spurs with Nowitzki (24.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG) likely sitting out with a sprained knee.

Nowitzki injured his knee early Monday night in Oklahoma City after an awkward landing on a mid-range jump shot. He left in the second quarter with 13 points in 12 minutes of play and did not return. Dallas went on to win 103-93 over the Thunder to earn its 17th win in 18 games.

The Nowitzki-less Mavericks felt confident heading into Tuesday’s matchup against the short-handed Raptors, but they were unable to bounce back from a six-point halftime deficit and scored a season-low in an 84-76 defeat. Sixth-man Jason Terry (15.8 PPG, 4.6 APG) had a game-high 18 points (8-19 FG) as the Mavs shot a dismal 41.3 FG Pct. (31-75), including a bleak 5-of-22 from behind the arc.

Dallas won the first meeting 103-94 in San Antonio on Nov. 26, but with Nowitzki likely out of the equation, the Mavericks will have to make some big adjustments in their offensive spacing. When Nowitzki plays, the Mavs average 104.7 points per 48 minutes while shooting 49.9% from the floor and 38.5% from three-point range. When he doesn’t play, they’re an offensive wreck, averaging just 83.9 points per 48 minutes, while shooting 42.1% from the field and 29.0% from three-point range.

The Mavericks are a solid 13-5 straight up at home (7-9-2 ATS), but with no Nowitzki, an injured Caron Butler (probable to play, hand injury), and the way the Spurs have been dominating this season, I pick San Antonio to win.

This FoxSheets stat also favors San Antonio to win:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. (50-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.4%, +26.9 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-30-2010, 07:04 PM

Magic look for 5th straight win hosting Knicks

NEW YORK KNICKS (18-13)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (20-12)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -7.5 Total: 211.5

The NBA’s highest-scoring team travels to Orlando to take on the Magic. This will be the final game of 2010 for both teams.

After losing their first three games since trading Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, while bringing back Gilbert Arenas from Washington and Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from Phoenix, the Magic have now won four straight. Before going on their current win streak, the Magic struggled both ATS and overall, losing eight of nine games. The Magic are 13-19 ATS on the season. Orlando’s defense is a major reason for their current win streak as it has allowed opponents to shoot just 40.5 percent from the field in the past four games. Dwight Howard loves playing against the Knicks. He has scored in double-figures in every one of his 21 career games against them while posting double-doubles in 14 of his past 15 meetings. He has averaged 18.7 PPG while shooting 62.4 percent from the field against New York.

The Knicks have come back down to earth a bit after winning 13-of-14, as they are 2-4 in their past six games. New York has been one of the best teams in the league this season ATS going 21-9-1 overall and an incredible 13-3 on the road. They have been exceptional ATS in their past 21 games, going 17-4 overall while winning 10 of their 11 road games. After scoring 30 or more points in nine straight contests, Amar’e Stoudemire has reached 30 in just one of his past five games.

The Knicks have been one of the best ATS this season, especially on the road. I don’t see that changing Thursday night. I’m taking the Knicks plus the points.

The FoxSheets shows two trends favoring New York:

NEW YORK is 13-2 ATS (86.7%, +10.8 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. The average score was NEW YORK 109.5, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 3*).

ORLANDO is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was ORLANDO 96.6, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-30-2010, 07:05 PM

Missouri giving 8 points to Old Dominion Thursday

OLD DOMINION MONARCHS (9-2)

at MISSOURI TIGERS (12-1)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Missouri -8

With the month of December winding down, and conference play exploding full force across the nation, there are still a few instances where other teams are wrapping up their non-conference journey, trying to get one last out-of-conference notch secured onto its belt to enhance a tournament resume, which brings us to Old Dominion. The Monarchs already have impressive victories this season over Xavier, Richmond and Clemson, all 2010 NCAA tourney participants. Now head coach Blaine Taylor has saved the best for last, as his team will take on Mike Anderson’s Missouri Tigers in a Mizzou Arena building where the host team has won 55 straight against non-conference foes. Happy New Year ODU. Prepare to end 2010 against the full court press.

Missouri is not a team of mystery. They press and score fast and furiously, and have the numbers to prove it. The Tigers are in the top five nationally in scoring (85.9 PPG) and assists (18.9 APG), and in the top 25 in team FG Pct (48.5%). Five players are scoring in double figures, led by Marcus Denmon (17.2 PPG) who himself is shooting nearly as well from beyond the arc (49.3%) as he is overall from the floor (51.7%). If there is one question mark about the Tigers, it would have to be at point guard, where they are on starter number three. Michael Dixon, who had been the starter, lost his job after being suspended for an unspecified violation. Dixon is back playing but now comes off the bench. He was replaced by freshman Phil Pressey, who shortly after assuming the role, broke a finger on his right hand in practice on December 19. Now Phil’s brother, Matt Pressey, has taken over lead guard duties. In his last game Matt Pressey scored 18 points in a 97-61 win over Northern Illinois. If Matt Pressey gets hurt, former NBA standout Paul Pressey (Phil and Matt’s father) is not an option. That being said, Missouri’s offense, at least at home, could operate on automatic pilot. The Tigers have an average home-court margin of victory of 20.9 points.

Old Dominion’s job Thursday night: slow that Tiger. The Monarchs will try and counter Missouri with experience. Junior swingman Kent Bazemore (13.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG) leads a trio of players scoring in double figures. Senior Frank Hassell (12.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.9 BPG) leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots, while fellow senior Ben Finney (11.0 PPG, 2.3 APG) contributes six boards a game. At 69.8 PPG, ODU averages about 16 fewer points per game than Missouri, thus it will be incumbent upon leading assist-man, senior Darius James, to protect the ball from the pressure that will come. Last season, Missouri defeated Old Dominion 66-61, forcing the Monarchs into 24 turnovers. A repeat of that performance Thursday could be disastrous for the visitors.

The two teams have a highly ranked common opponent: Georgetown. Missouri lost to the Hoyas in an overtime thriller 111-102 on November 30. Meanwhile ODU fell to Georgetown in the season opener for both teams, 62-59. Despite losing, each team played their respective games at the tempo that they wanted. ODU in the 60’s, and Missouri surpassing the century mark. On Thursday, the winner of the tempo game should be the winner after 40 minutes of the real game.

The FoxSheets give three reasons to expect Missouri to win and cover the spread:

Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (MISSOURI) - team from a major Division I conference against a team from a mid-major Division I conference, off a home win scoring 85 or more points. (191-118 since 1997.) (61.8%, +61.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MISSOURI) - an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. (79-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.7%, +29.5 units. Rating = 2*).

OLD DOMINION is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a home win over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OLD DOMINION 66.8, OPPONENT 59.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-30-2010, 07:06 PM

Villanova hosts Temple in Big Five duel

TEMPLE OWLS (9-2)

at VILLANOVA WILDCATS (10-1)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Villanova -6

Temple versus Villanova is a game that means different things depending on where you live. Outside of the 215 area code, it’s a duel of two Top 25 teams separated by just a few miles, each with rich basketball traditions. Inside Philadelphia, it is about bragging rights, a city series title, and for Temple an opportunity to not only settle the question of who is the best team in town, but also prove to Villanova that what took place on December 13 last year (a 75-65 Temple victory over then-No. 3 and undefeated Villanova) was not a fluke.

In that upset victory at Temple’s Liacouras Center, Owls guard Juan Fernandez played the game of his life, scoring 33 points while hitting on 7-of-9 three-point FG attempts. Fernandez has not been the same player this season as his scoring average (from 12.6 to 9.8) FG% (42.7 to 33.1) and three-point FG% (45.3 to 20.4) are all way down from last year. Head coach Fran Dunphy has had to turn to other avenues for offense, and has found an answer in leading scorer Ramone Moore, whose 14.9 PPG average is nearly double his 7.6 PPG output of last season. Lavoy Allen (10.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG), arguably the best big man in the A-10, leads Temple in rebounding, and will have to stay out of foul trouble if Temple is to pull out a tough road victory. At 68.1 PPG, Temple is in the bottom half of Division I rankings in team scoring (208th), but the Owls make up for that on defense. They are allowing only 58.1 PPG, and have held all but four of its opponents to under 60 points.

What made last year’s loss to Temple headline-grabbing stuff in local circles was the fact that anyone in Philadelphia could actually beat Jay Wright. The Villanova head coach has won 24 of his last 26 games against Big Five opponents. Senior guard Corey Stokes has emerged into a double-digit scorer this year (15.7 PPG) to lead Villanova. In three city series games this season against Big Five competition he is averaging over 22 PPG. Corey Fisher (15.5 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG) leads the team in assists and steals. Maalik Wayns (12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG) might be the fastest guard on the team, but must improve on some lackluster shooting numbers (38.8 FG%, 19.5% 3-point FG) if he is to take his game to that next level.

A victory by Villanova will extend its home winning streak at The Pavilion, a run which presently stands at 42 games. A win by Temple would give the Owls a third big non-conference win, and second over a ranked opponent this month. Those are all big carrots, but the biggest motivation for these two teams is the chance to claim for the next 12 months, that one of them is the best college basketball team in Philadelphia.

Villanova is 10-3 ATS (9-4 SU) in the past 13 series meetings, including a perfect 5-0 at home (SU and ATS). The FoxSheets give three more reasons to expect Villanova to win and cover the spread again:

Jay Wright is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less as the coach of VILLANOVA. The average score was VILLANOVA 72.7, OPPONENT 63.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams as an underdog or pick (TEMPLE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more.(93-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +41.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VILLANOVA) - team from a major Division I conference against a team from a second tier conference. (244-163 since 1997.) (60%, +64.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**Dat Boi E** · 12-30-2010, 07:59 PM

good luck tonight, Bum!

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