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**StarDust Bum** · 12-25-2010, 01:36 PM

Lakers favored by 3.5 over Miami

MIAMI HEAT (22-9)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (21-8)

Tip-off: Saturday, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles Lakers -3.5, Total: 191.5

The much-anticipated matchup between last season’s champions and this season’s paper champions will finally take place on Saturday, as the Miami Heat travel on Christmas Day to take on the Lakers.

Dwyane Wade missed Thursday’s game at Phoenix with a sore knee, but most reports have him playing against the Lakers. Without Wade in the lineup on Thursday, the Heat won their 13th game in 14 tries. Miami has come back down to earth ATS after winning seven straight and are 2-3-1 ATS in their past six games. However, they have played excellent recently ATS on the road winning seven of their past eight games. LeBron James has stepped up his game, averaging 29.7 PPG over his past four games (30+ points in three games), while also averaging 8.5 RPG and 6.8 APG over that same span.

The Lakers currently have a bad taste in their mouth after suffering their worst loss of the season on Wednesday in a 98-79 defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks at home. The Lakers have played better recently, winning four of their last five ATS, but none of those wins were at home where they are a sub-par 5-8 ATS this season. Kobe Bryant has struggled a bit in his past three games, averaging 16.7 PPG while shooting 46% from the field and 0-for-7 from behind the arc. Bryant averaged 36 PPG against the Heat last season when the Lakers split with them.

The Heat are 3-1 in their past four games ATS at the Lakers. However, Kobe and company should be plenty motivated to show the Heat who the champions still are, and also desperate to rid themselves of the stinker they put on Wednesday night against the Bucks. I’m taking the Los Angeles minus the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play On - Any team (LA LAKERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (145-93 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.9%, +42.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-25-2010, 01:37 PM

Celtics travel to Orlando seeking 14th straight win

BOSTON CELTICS (23-4)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (17-12)

Tip-off: Saturday, 2:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -2.5, Total: 191.5

A matchup between the last two Eastern Conference champions takes place in Orlando on Saturday as the Celtics take on the Magic.

Orlando is coming off perhaps its most impressive performance of the season, with a 123-101 trouncing of the Spurs who own the league’s best record. The Magic get another chance to prove themselves on Saturday when they play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. After starting 15-4 the Magic hit the skids, losing five of six, and needed to make a change. They proceeded to trade Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, plus a 2011 first-round draft pick and cash, while bringing back Gilbert Arenas from Washington and Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark from Phoenix.

The early returns were not promising as the Magic lost three straight after the trade, but their performance against the Spurs has revived hope in Orlando. The Magic have really struggled ATS this season going 10-19 overall and 7-8 at home. They have also lost eight of their past 10 both SU and ATS. Dwight Howard has posted a double-double in six straight games.

The Celtics have been on a high all season and enter Orlando on a 14-game win streak. While posting a 23-4 record overall, the Celtics have not done as well ATS, going 15-11-1. They have done better ATS on the road, winning nine of 13, but lost two of their last three. Boston has managed to get off to such a good start despite dealing with a number of injuries to key players. Point guard Rajon Rondo, backup Delonte West, Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal have all missed significant time during the spurt. And Kendrick Perkins, the starting center last season, hasn't been on the floor all season. Rondo is expected to sit out against Orlando and both O'Neals will likely play, head coach Doc Rivers said. A key to the Celtics success during their 14-game win streak has been their excellent shooting. They are averaging 51.1 percent from the field over that span while shooting under 50 percent in just three of their 14 games.

The Celtics have won seven of their last 10 ATS in Orlando. It’s not often you see a team on a 14-game win streak as the underdog, so I’m taking Boston plus the points in this one.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (53-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.1%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-25-2010, 01:37 PM

Bulls-Knicks meet for Christmas Day matinee

CHICAGO BULLS (18-9)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (17-12)

Tip-off: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -2, Total: 205.5

Chicago looks to win for the 10th time in 11 games when it visits New York for a Christmas Day matinee.

Joakim Noah (14.0 PPG, 11.7 RPG) will be sidelined for another two months (thumb surgery), but the Bulls will have Carlos Boozer (19.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG) back for their rematch against the Knicks.

Boozer did not play in New York's 120-112 victory in Chicago on Nov. 4 because of a broken right hand. He's averaging 21.2 PPG and 9.7 RPG in his past 10 games and finished with 30 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in Wednesday's 87-80 victory over Washington.

The Bulls lost the first two games after Boozer returned (107-78 versus Orlando and 104-92 at Boston) but have since won nine of 10, and their stingy defense is the main reason why. Chicago is allowing only 87.7 PPG during that stretch and is eighth in the league in points allowed (95.0 PPG).

The Bulls held the Wizards to 38% shooting and 47 points during the final three quarters of Wednesday's win. They'll need to put forth another great effort on the defensive end again, as New York leads the NBA in scoring at 108.1 PPG.

The Knicks halted their three-game slide Wednesday against Oklahoma City. Amar’e Stoudemire (26.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.1 BPG) scored 23 points and six Knicks were in double-figures in a 112-98 victory. Stoudemire is looking for a better performance against the Bulls this time around. In the November matchup, he tied a season-low with 14 points and made only 5-of-21 shots and added eight turnovers.

New York will need to contain Bulls star Derrick Rose (24.3 PPG, 8.4 APG) if it hopes to win the rematch on Saturday. He's dominated the Knicks in the past four meetings with 26.5 PPG on 58.7% shooting. Rose scored 24 points and dished out 14 assists in the first game at Chicago.

The Knicks also hope to limit Luol Deng's productivity. Deng has averaged 20.8 PPG against New York since the 2007-08 season, which marks his most points against any Eastern Conference team.

The Knicks, who average an NBA-high 24.8 three-point attempts per game, made 16 in their November victory over the Bulls, including five by Toney Douglas (9.4 PPG, 32% on three-pointers) who tallied a career-high 30 points. Danilo Gallinari (15.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 37% on 3-pt FG) and Raymond Felton (18.2 PPG, 9.1 APG, 36% on three-pointers) each added four three-pointers for New York.

This will be the third meeting between the Knicks and Bulls on Christmas Day, but the first since 1994. New York has been mediocre at home (7-7) this season, and the Bulls are 7-6 on the road. But their past three road wins have come against bottom-feeders Cleveland, Toronto and Washington.

The series has been pretty tight at Madison Square Garden with New York 14-11 SU and 13-12 ATS when hosting Chicago since 1996. These two FoxSheets trends like New York to slow down the streaking Bulls by winning and covering the spread.

Mike D'Antoni is 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of NEW YORK. The average score was NEW YORK 103.7, OPPONENT 106.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.(23-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.3%, +16.4 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also side with the Under.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (35-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHICAGO) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). (40-13 since 1996.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-25-2010, 01:38 PM

Anthony will not play at Oklahoma City

DENVER NUGGETS (16-11)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (20-10)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -6.5, Total: 213.5

Oklahoma City has historically struggled in its series with Denver, but Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony will not be in the lineup when the two teams meet on Christmas night.

Anthony, who leads Denver in scoring with 24.0 PPG, will miss his second straight contest following the death of his sister. The Nuggets are 1-2 without Anthony this season, which includes a 109-103 loss in San Antonio on Wednesday.

J.R. Smith (12.1 PPG, 41% on three-pointers) made his first start in three seasons and finished with 22 points and seven rebounds against the Spurs. Ty Lawson (11.1 PPG, 4.3 APG) also had 22, and Kenyon Martin, who's been sidelined for the first 26 games (knee surgery), added eight points and five boards in 17 minutes.

Chauncey Billups (14.7 PPG, 5.5 APG) made his return from a wrist injury and had 20 points and seven assists, but was only 4-of-11 from the field, including 0-for-4 on three-pointers.

Denver has dominated the series in recent seasons, winning 11 of the past 13 meetings, and Anthony's 29.6 per-game-average against the Oklahoma City franchise (since 2005-06) is his best versus any Western Conference team.

Anthony has been playing some of his best basketball of late, averaging 30.3 PPG and 10.0 RPG in his past four games. And considering his stellar numbers against the Thunder, they'll be relieved he won't be in the lineup on Saturday.

Oklahoma City’s only victory in four games against the Nuggets last season came when Anthony was sidelined due to an ankle injury.

The good news for Oklahoma City is that it has won seven of its past nine games at home. Kevin Durant (NBA-best 27.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) has scored at least 30 points in each of his past five home games versus Denver, and the Thunder are 8-2 when Durant scores at least 30 points this season.

Russell Westbrook is second on the team in scoring with 22.8 PPG and 8.3 APG, but he's also averaging 4.0 turnovers per game, including 18 in his last four.

Oklahoma City lost to New York, 112-98, on Wednesday, which is its second defeat in three games after winning five straight contests. Durant finished with 26 points, as the Thunder surrendered 52 points in the paint, tied for their third-most allowed all season. Westbrook had 23 points, five rebounds and five assists versus the Knicks.

The Thunder will look to avoid losing consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 31 and Nov. 3. Although they have lost seven of eight to Denver, the Thunder are 5-3 ATS in these eight games. These two FoxSheets trends expect Oklahoma City to win and cover the spread.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-12 ATS (72.7%, +18.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 102.5, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 3*).

DENVER is 16-40 ATS (28.6%, -28.0 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996. The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 113.5 - (Rating = 2*).

Both these teams can score points. Oklahoma City averages 103.5 PPG for seventh-best in the NBA, while Denver is at 107.2 PPG for third-best in the league. Play the Over in this one, despite Anthony's unavailability.

The FoxSheets says:

Play Over - Any team (DENVER) - off a road loss, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (92-50 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +37 units. Rating = 2*).

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