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**StarDust Bum** · 12-23-2010, 06:47 PM

Georgetown favored by 4.5 at Memphis

GEORGETOWN HOYAS (10-1)

at MEMPHIS TIGERS (9-1)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgetown -4.5, Total: 146.5

With five teams ranked in the Top 10 nationally, the Big East conference has become a mini tornado, bouncing its away around the countryside in the early part of this season, leaving devastation and non-conference victims in its wake. Thursday night at the FedEx Forum the ninth-ranked Georgetown Hoyas will try and make it 11 wins and add to an already impressive collection of non-conference victories (Missouri, Old Dominion, Utah State and N.C. State to name a few) when they take on the Memphis Tigers, who are playing without leading scorer Wesley Witherspoon, and starting three freshmen against one of the most seasoned teams in the country.

The Hoyas are loaded with experience and versatility in their starting lineup. Between leading scorer Austin Freeman (18.5 PPG), top assist man Chris Wright (13.2 PPG, 6.7 APG) and center Julian Vaughn (8.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG), they boast three seniors. Throw in junior Jason Clark (14.2 PPG) and the starting lineup also has three guards. While the image of John Thompson III teams has been methodical, deliberate half-court sets with “Princeton offense” principles, the fact of the matter is the Hoyas have been a very up-tempo team quite often this season. At 80.5 PPG, they rank 21st in scoring in Division I. Georgetown is shooting 52.5% from the field as a team, placing them second in the country. With apologies to Kansas, whom the Tigers lost to on December 7, Georgetown will likely pose the biggest defensive challenge that the Tigers have faced all season.

Some coaches would only see the liabilities in starting three freshmen, the flip side in Memphis is everyone is growing up together and growing up fast. Joe Jackson (11.5 PPG, 3.7 APG, 2.8 RPG) has stepped into his starting point guard role and continues to develop with every game. While Jackson leads the team in assists, his assist to turnover ratio is 1-to-1. That’s the tradeoff of starting a freshman point guard. Fellow freshman guard Will Barton (11.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is the third-leading scorer on the team, but his shooting numbers (39.8 FG%, 29.3% from beyond the arc) leave a great deal of room for improvement. Freshman Chris Crawford (9.4 PPG), on the other hand, stepped up big time in his team’s overtime victory last week over a tough Austin Peay squad. Crawford scored 18 points in 32 minutes, with six of the points coming in the extra session, to help the Tigers win a game they trailed in by as many as 15 points. While the Tigers are 9-1, the energy they were forced to exert in defeating less-talented teams Austin Peay and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (68-63) could be an ominous sign. If they dig a hole against Georgetown, the Tigers could find themselves suffering from a severe case of Hoya paranoia by game’s end.

The FoxSheets show two highly-rated trends to avoid Memphis and play on Georgetown:

Play Against - Any team (MEMPHIS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. (33-7 since 1997.) (82.5%, +25.3 units. Rating = 4*).

MEMPHIS is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.The average score was MEMPHIS 76.5, OPPONENT 68.2 - (Rating = 3*).

This FoxSheets coaching trend likes the Under in this game:

John Thompson III is 44-25 UNDER (63.8%, +16.5 Units) after one or more consecutive overs as the coach of GEORGETOWN. The average score was GEORGETOWN 68.3, OPPONENT 61.2 - (Rating

**StarDust Bum** · 12-23-2010, 06:48 PM

Spurs go for 11 in a row on Thursday

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (25-3)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (16-12)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -2.5, Total: 199.5

The Spurs extended their winning streak to 10 in a row (5-5 ATS) after a 109-103 win over the Nuggets Wednesday -- their second double-digit winning streak of the season. San Antonio had another impressive 50% shooting game (52.6%), extending its shooting average to 50.8% for 107.4 PPG over the 10-game streak. The Spurs have continued to play excellent defense, outscoring opponents by +9.0 PPG, the second-highest margin in the NBA.

The Spurs and Magic met earlier in San Antonio Nov. 22, where the Spurs took it 106-97. Orlando played well offensively, shooting 48.8% (39-80 FG) and 9-for-18 from three-point range. But the ever-impressive, three-point shooting Spurs made 12-of-19 from behind the arc and shot 49.4% (38-77 FG). Dwight Howard (21.7 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG) scored a game-high 26 points (11-16 FG) and pulled down 18 rebounds -- tying the total combined rebounds of all five Spurs’ starters. Tony Parker (17.7 PPG, 7.1 APG) and Manu Ginobili (19.8 PPG, 4.9 APG) scored 24 and 25 points, respectively.

Moving to the present, Orlando continues to struggle, winning only one game (SU and ATS) in the past nine contests. The new additions of Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas (acquired Saturday) haven’t made an impressive start. After losing in Atlanta 91-81 in their first outing together, all three shot poorly at home in a 105-99 loss against Dallas. Arenas had two points (1-6 FG), Turkoglu had nine points (2-11 FG) and Richardson had 10 (4-13 FG). The Magic have only shot 42.4% over the past nine contests and are being outscored by 9.3 PPG over their past nine losses.

San Antonio has been impressive in away games at 9-1 (7-2-1 ATS), while Orlando has been a solid 9-5 (6-8 ATS) at home. With the Magic dealing with some new players and struggling to find a rhythm, and the way the Spurs have been playing (and dominating), I pick San Antonio to win and cover.

The Spurs are 19-9 SU and 15-13 ATS against Orlando since 1996, and these highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support San Antonio to cover the spread:

ORLANDO is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was ORLANDO 94.4, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 5*).

ORLANDO is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season. The average score was ORLANDO 94.3, OPPONENT 95.0 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-23-2010, 06:49 PM

OSU looks for 12-0 start vs. Oakland

OAKLAND GOLDEN GRIZZLIES (7-7)

at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-0)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

Will the Buckeyes catch a bear in a trap, or can the Golden Grizzlies shock the No. 2 team in the nation with a performance that would register as the team’s second Christmas miracle in a week?

Thursday night in Columbus, OH the giant killers from the Summit League will wrap up their college tour of the Big Ten against possibly the best team in the conference. When Oakland enters Value City Arena to play Ohio State, it will mark its fifth and final game of the year against a Big Ten opponent. While all four previous games have been losses, the Grizzlies took Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad down to the wire before losing 77-76. Then last week, Oakland went down to Knoxville and spanked then-No. 7 Tennessee 89-82. This is a mid-major team that’s proven it knows how to beat a major team on the road.

Keith Benson leads Oakland in scoring and rebounding (17.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG) with slippery 5-foot-11 junior guard Reggie Hamilton right behind him (16.1 PPG). Benson has nine double-doubles on the season, with three of them coming against ranked opponents. He tallied 26 and 10 over Tennessee in that upset win, and has proven an ability to bring out his best against the best. The 6-foot-11 senior will need to continue that trend tonight, because he will be challenged by the man they call “Big Sully.”

Jared Sullinger, like Benson, is a center who leads his team in both scoring and rebounding. The difference, Sullinger (17.6 PPG, 10.2 RPG) is a freshman, and with Duke’s Kyrie Irving on the shelf with an injury to his right foot, Sullinger may be the best freshman player in the country. His impact on Ohio State cannot be overstated. His 40 points on December 9 versus IUPUI set a school freshman record, and last Saturday he had a career-high 19 rebounds to go along with 30 points in a 79-57 victory over South Carolina. The Buckeyes have been the college basketball equivalent of the terminator, destroying its 11 opponents by an average of 26 PPG, while allowing just 54.2 PPG.

With five players scoring in double figures, they are a scary combination of scoring, experience and balance. Senior swingman David Lighty (13.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.8 SPG) does a little bit of everything and may be the most versatile player in the Big Ten. When (or if) the Buckeyes play a close game this season, he would be the man to take that clutch shot. Sharpshooter Jon Diebler (12.6 PPG) is hitting half his shots from the floor, and is an eye-popping 46.6% from beyond the arc. So deep are the Buckeyes that last season’s top returning scorer, William Buford (12.4 PPG) has to settle for fourth on the team in scoring this season. It’s rare in the college game when two standout big men like Sullinger and Benson get to face off against one another. Thursday night should be a treat for fans of the low post. Oakland is hoping that it will also be a treat for fans of the huge upset.

Oakland started the season 8-2 ATS, but has lost its last three games ATS. Ohio State is 4-4 ATS and has been favored by an average of 21 points in its past seven lined games.

These teams last met in 1999, with Ohio State winning 76-50. They also played in 1998, an 89-61 OSU victory. The FoxSheets show another trend siding with Ohio State to win and cover what will likely be a 15-point spread:

Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (OHIO ST) - playing with one or less days rest, undefeated on the season. (34-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.9%, +20.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-23-2010, 06:49 PM

Miami travels to new-look Phoenix

MIAMI HEAT (21-9)

at PHOENIX SUNS (13-14)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 209

The Heat and their top-ranked defense (91.5 PPG) will take on the top-scoring Suns (108.5 PPG) for the second time this season. Miami rolled over Phoenix 123-96 on Nov. 17, holding the Suns to 44.4% (32-72 FG) shooting and only 5-of-19 from three-point range. Steve Nash, who was dealing with a sore groin, scored 17 points, but only had two assists. Chris Bosh had a season-high 35 points (12-17 FG) to lead Miami to 54.7% (47-86) shooting for the night.

Miami has won 13 of its past 15 contests (8-6-1 ATS), losing only to the Mavericks prior to their 12-game winning streak and again Monday night, 98-96, to snap the stretch. Mike Miller made his season debut, but only had four rebounds in four minutes. The Heat shot a lowly 40.5% (34-84 FG), after averaging 45.8% shooting for 101.9 PPG over the winning streak.

Meanwhile, the Suns will likely debut Mickael Pietrus (6.7 PPG, 2.6 RPG) and Marcin Gortat (4.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG), after being undermanned in their past two contests due to a trade involving Hedo Turkoglu (9.4 PPG, 4 RPG) and their leading scorer Jason Richardson (18.6 PPG) for Vince Carter (15.1 PPG) and Gortat. Phoenix lost Monday to the Spurs 118-110; its fifth loss in seven games (2-5 ATS).

The Suns have allowed opponents to score 109.6 PPG over the past seven contests, while only averaging 104.7 PPG on 48.3 FG Pct. After playing the past three on the road, Phoenix returns home where it’s a modest 7-5, but a poor 4-8 ATS. Miami has been slightly better in away games with a 9-5 mark (8-6 ATS) and is averaging a +8.5-point margin of victory.

Miami is 4-1 (SU and ATS) against Phoenix over the past three seasons. This FoxSheets trend picks Miami to win and cover the spread:

MIAMI is 17-6 ATS (73.9%, +10.4 Units) against Pacific Division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MIAMI 108.9, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 0*).

Three of the past five contests have gone Over the total. This FoxSheets stat also likes the Over:

Play Over - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less. (29-6 since 1996.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-23-2010, 06:50 PM

Bucks try to avoid letdown in Sacramento

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (11-16)

at SACRAMENTO KINGS (5-21)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -2, Total: 186.5

The Sacramento Kings continue their nightmare of a season as they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday.

After reaching the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons from 1998-2006, the Kings have failed to reach the postseason every year since and are currently eight-and-a-half games behind the Blazers for the eighth spot in the Western Conference. The Kings have been nearly as bad ATS (7-19) as they have been overall (5-21) this season. At home, the Kings are 4-11 ATS. They have not shot the ball well all season. They currently rank 26th in the league in FT Pct. (71.2%), 27th in FG Pct. (43.3%) and 28th in 3-pt FG Pct. (32.3%).

Milwaukee is no doubt coming off its biggest win of the season defeating the defending champion Lakers in Los Angeles by 19 points on Tuesday. Perhaps even more amazing was the fact that the Bucks were playing short-handed, down to just nine healthy players after an embarrassing 26-point loss at Portland on Monday. The Bucks held the Lakers to their franchise-low against them (79 points) while holding them to just 2-of-13 shooting from behind the arc. That win was the Bucks third in their past four road games ATS. They are 4-2 in their last six games overall ATS. The Bucks are currently without leading scorer Brandon Jennings who is out 4-to-6 weeks after undergoing foot surgery on Monday. The Bucks have relied heavily on their defense this season as they enter the game fourth in the NBA in PPG allowed, surrendering just 93.2 PPG.

After such an impressive win over the Lakers, the Bucks might be in for a letdown. However, the Kings have been awful ATS at home this season and the Bucks have played much better ATS lately. I’m taking Milwaukee minus the two points.

The FoxSheets says:

MILWAUKEE is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 97.1, OPPONENT 91.4 - (Rating = 2*).

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