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**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2010, 07:26 PM

Tennessee tries to end losing skid vs. USC

USC TROJANS (6-5)

at TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (7-2)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Tennessee -7, Total: 134.5

If Oliver Stone were to put forth a theory where a certain SEC basketball team infiltrated my computer with a diabolical virus, so powerful it would weaken and prevent me from predicting that Tennessee, would break its losing streak and not be upset again for the third straight game, I just might believe that. Now I’m sure some anti-conspiracy types might find this magic single-virus theory to be borderline preposterous. But aren’t those the same people who thought that a 4-6 Charlotte team had no chance last Friday against the seventh-ranked team in the country which had just lost to Oakland three days prior? Ladies and gentlemen, could there be a second upset on the grassy knoll!! (or in this case, in Thompson-Boling Arena on Tuesday night when Tennessee takes on USC)?

The Trojans and its head coach Kevin O’Neill have shown an ability to do more than just compete with the best teams in the country. Saturday, the No. 3 ranked Kansas Jayhawks escaped with a 70-68 victory over USC in Allen Fieldhouse, where the host team has won 65 straight. Clearly the visitors were not intimidated. Earlier this year on Dec. 5, USC defeated another Top 20 team, the Texas Longhorns, at the Galen Center, 73-56. The Trojans are paced by 6-foot-10 junior forward Nikola Vucevic, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding (16.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG). While USC (the one and only USC, sorry South Carolina) has five players scoring in double figures, those five are doing almost all of the work, as the team only averages 68.8 PPG, ranking them 191st in Division I.

Not only are the Volunteers trying to snap one of the more surprising two-game losing streaks of this young season, they will be trying to do it against a team that whipped them last December almost a year to the day (12/19/2009). That 77-55 defeat to USC was the second-worst loss in the Bruce Pearl era. Pearl feels that his team has been pressing, and need to focus less on wins and losses, and more on playing better basketball. Over the last 60 minutes of play the Vols have shot 2-of-27 from beyond the arc. Friday night versus Charlotte they shot 35% from the field, and 29% (2-of-7) from the foul line. Top scorer Scotty Hopson (16.1 PPG), who is 7-for-26 in his last two games, will need to snap out of his shooting slump if the Volunteers are to regain their poise and return to the win column. One good omen in Rocky Top, the Trojans have lost six straight road games dating back to last season.

This FoxSheets trend likes USC to at least cover the spread:

USC is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The average score was USC 62.9, OPPONENT 62.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Kevin O’Neill is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 as the coach of USC.The average score was USC 68.2, OPPONENT 59.3 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under:

TENNESSEE is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TENNESSEE 70.3, OPPONENT 63.7 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2010, 07:27 PM

Kansas State giving 3.5 points to UNLV

UNLV REBELS (10-2)

at KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (9-2)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas State -3.5, Total: 138

Last Wednesday in the midst of a two-game losing streak, Lon Kruger’s UNLV Runnin’ Rebels lost a home game to UC-Santa Barbara 68-62, in which they shot 29% from the floor. Last Saturday the Kansas State Wildcats lost to Florida 57-44 in which the ‘Cats shot 27% from the floor, at one point scoring just one basket over an 18-minute stretch. When these two Top-25 caliber teams meet in Kansas City on Tuesday, fans will either be treated to a December matchup worthy of 2nd Round NCAA Tournament billing, or a bricklaying festival that would make the Masons proud.

At least UNLV regained some of its shooting touch with a 72-50 victory Saturday over Southern Utah, outscoring the Thunderbirds 37-18 in the first half, and finishing the game strong by shooting 50% in the second half. Junior Chace Stanback is the Rebels leading scorer at 13.7 PPG, but is averaging only 11.0 PPG over his past three games on 11-for-30 shooting. While last season’s top scorer Tre’von Willis only had eight points in the win over Southern Utah, he tallied 14, 17 and 14 points in the previous three games, and has shown signs or re-capturing last year’s form. At 10.6 PPG Willis is third on the team in scoring behind Stanback and Oscar Bellfield (11.8 PPG).

Preseason All-American guard Jacob Pullen once again leads the Wildcats at 16.5 PPG, but is only shooting 40% from the field. While Pullen was 6-for-17 in the loss to Florida, his shots are not the only ones chipping paint off the rim. Kansas State is averaging just 66.0 PPG on 38% shooting over its past four games. With shooting like that, it helps to be able to crash the boards and grab some of those extra misses and K-State does plenty of that. At 41.5 RPG, they are ranked 18th in Division I in team rebounding. Pullen hopes to regain his shooting eye against a UNLV team that he and his teammates torched last December 12 in Las Vegas, 95-80. Pullen scored 28 that day on 10-of-16 shooting, and the Wildcats as a team buried 14-of-23 shots from beyond the arc. Tuesday will mark the third time this season that Kansas State will be playing a game on the “neutral” court of the Sprint Center in Kansas City. Its previous two contests resulted in a 17-point win over Gonzaga, followed up by a 14-point loss to Duke.

This FoxSheets trend likes UNLV to at least cover the spread:

Lon Kruger is 83-53 ATS (61.0%, +24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of UNLV. The average score was UNLV 70.0, OPPONENT 66.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Under:

KANSAS ST is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season. The average score was KANSAS ST 67.4, OPPONENT 62.7 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2010, 07:27 PM

Mavs try to stay hot in Orlando

DALLAS MAVERICKS (22-5)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (16-11)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -4, Total: 190

After an impressive victory in Miami, Dallas looks for its 16th win in 17 games when it visits struggling Orlando on Tuesday night.

The Mavericks beat the Heat, 98-96, and ended Miami's 12-game winning streak on Monday. Dallas has been the king of streak busters this season, as it has snapped six winning streaks of at least five games -- including San Antonio's 12 straight on Nov. 26.

As has been the case all season, the Mavs relied on their stout defense to contain Miami's star-studded lineup. Dallas held the Heat to 40.5% shooting to improve to 9-1 on the road (SU and ATS), which includes six straight wins against teams that are a combined 45 games over .500. The Mavericks' defense is allowing just 94.7 PPG vs. opponents that have a .500 record or better.

Dirk Nowitzki (24.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG) scored 26 points against the Heat, while Jason Terry (16.0 PPG, 4.4 APG) was scoreless on 0-of-5 shooting for three quarters, but dominated the fourth by scoring all 19 of his points in the final 11 minutes.

With the victory, Dallas improved to 9-1 this month (6-4 ATS), which includes wins over Miami and Utah (twice). But the Mavs have also taken advantage of the NBA's weaklings, piling up victories over Minnesota, Sacramento and New Jersey. Their lone loss this month came against Milwaukee, 103-99, on Dec. 13.

Meanwhile, the results are the complete opposite for Orlando. After Monday's 91-81 loss in Atlanta, the Magic dropped to 1-7 (SU and ATS) in its past eight games including three straight defeats, all by eight points or more.

Orlando acquired Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu on Saturday, but the Magic couldn't find their offense against the Hawks, scoring a season-low 14 points in the first quarter and going without a field goal for the first eight minutes of the fourth quarter. The Magic shot only 35% for the game, including a paltry 24% on three-pointers (4-of-17). In losing seven of their past eight, they've averaged only 88.1 PPG.

Dwight Howard (21.6 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG) finished with 19 points and 20 rebounds for his 19th double-double of the season, and Jameer Nelson (14.7 PPG, 7.1 APG) scored 18 points. But Arenas had 10 points on 2-of-11 shooting from the floor. Richardson added nine points on 3-of-8 shooting and Turkoglu tallied eight points on just 1-of-4 shooting.

Dallas and Orlando split the season series last year as both teams won on the other's home court. Nowitzki had 23 points and Caron Butler (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) scored 16 as the Mavericks won at Orlando in February, 95-85. The Magic returned the favor in April with a 97-82 victory in Dallas, as Howard had 17 points, 20 rebounds and five blocked shots.

Dallas has won its past four meetings in Orlando, and the games haven't been close. A nine-point victory was the smallest margin in those four games. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and Dallas is playing too well right now. Expect the Mavs to ride their defense to another victory on the road.

These two anti-Magic FoxSheets trends like Dallas to win and cover the spread.

ORLANDO is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was ORLANDO 94.1, OPPONENT 97.4 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Home teams (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.(112-70 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.5%, +35 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2010, 07:28 PM

Lakers host Milwaukee without Jennings

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (10-16)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (21-7)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -12, Total: 189

The Lakers return home from a successful road trip hoping to continue their mastery over Milwaukee on Tuesday night.

L.A. aims for its sixth straight victory overall and seventh consecutive over the Bucks, who will be playing without leading scorer Brandon Jennings (17.9 PPG, 5.5 APG) who will be out four-to-six weeks with a fracture in his foot.

After Andrew Bynum made his season debut at Washington on Dec. 14, the Lakers finished their trip with five wins by an 11.6 PPG average victory margin. L.A. won for the eighth time in nine games and was 6-1 on the road trip after beating Toronto, 120-110, on Sunday.

Bynum had a season-high 16 points and was part of a bench brigade, which finished with 57 points against the Raptors. He said his knee felt a little sore after the game, but he should be able to play against Milwaukee. Kobe Bryant (25.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) scored 20 points, while Pau Gasol (19.8 PPG, 11.1 RPG) added 19. Gasol is averaging 19.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 2.2 BPG in his past six games, and his 60.1 career FG Pct. versus Milwaukee is his best against any opponent.

The short-handed Bucks face an uphill battle against the Lakers. In addition to Jennings being out, Carlos Delfino and Corey Maggette are both sidelined with concussion symptoms.

Milwaukee fell behind by 24 at the half and shot 38.0% from the field in a 106-80 blowout loss to Portland on Monday without Jennings, its third straight loss overall. John Salmons (13.1 PPG) scored 23 points against the Blazers, including 14 in the third quarter.

The two teams met on Nov. 16 in Milwaukee and the Lakers prevailed, 118-107, behind Bryant's 31 points and Shannon Brown's (10.4 PPG) 21 points off the bench. Jennings had 31 in the loss, while Salmons finished with 10 and Andrew Bogut (14.1 PPG, 11.5 RPG) added 12 points, 18 rebounds and four blocks. Brown also played a key role in last season's meeting at the Staples Center, finishing with 19 points in a 95-77 Lakers win.

The Lakers are 22-5 SU (14-12 ATS) versus Milwaukee since 1996 and this FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Lakers to win and cover the spread:

Phil Jackson is 25-9 ATS (73.5%, +15.1 Units) after 4 straight games with 55 or more rebounds as the coach of LA LAKERS. The average score was LA LAKERS 101.8, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-21-2010, 07:29 PM

Thunder travel to Charlotte on Tuesday

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (19-9)

at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (9-18)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -6.5, Total: 191.5

The young and talented Oklahoma City Thunder travel to take on the Charlotte Bobcats Tuesday. This is the first of back-to-back road games for the Thunder as they will travel to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday to take on the Knicks.

After taking the eventual champion Lakers to six games in last spring’s NBA playoffs, the Thunder have continued their rise to become an elite team this season, winning 19 of their first 28 games. They trail first place Utah by just a half-game entering play on Tuesday. Oklahoma City has not fared as well ATS as they have overall this season as they are just 14-13 on the season. However, they are 5-1 in their past six games ATS and 2-0 in their past two road games. Russell Westbrook has been one of the NBA’s most improved players this season. He is posting career-highs with 23.1 PPG (15.3 in first two NBA seasons), 8.5 APG (5.3 in first two seasons) and 44.6% FG (39.8% FG in his first two seasons).

Charlotte has not fared as well this season. After winning 44 games and reaching the postseason for the first time in franchise history last season, the Bobcats have won just nine of their 27 games so far this season. They have also struggled ATS, going just 11-15-1. They have played better recently at home, winning five of their last seven games ATS. Scoring and taking care of the ball have been the Bobcats biggest issues this season. They enter Tuesday’s game second-to-last in the NBA in turnovers per game (16.3) and points per game (92.2).

The Thunder are proving this season that they will be a force in the NBA to reckon with for many years. I like Oklahoma City minus the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - after a game committing 13+ more turnovers than opponents. (44-15 since 1996.) (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*).

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