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**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2010, 07:05 PM

Spurs host Suns looking for 9th straight win

PHOENIX SUNS (13-13)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (23-3)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -11.5, Total: 213

Two of the highest scoring teams meet in San Antonio for the second time this season when the Suns take on the Spurs. Phoenix is the highest-scoring team in the league with 108.4 PPG, while allowing opponents to score 109.9 PPG, the second-highest total in the NBA. San Antonio is scoring a fifth-best 106.3 PPG, but doing a much better job defensively by only allowing 97.2 PPG.

The Suns have had trouble winning on the road with a 6-8 mark (6-7-1 ATS). After a 106-91 loss in Dallas where Steve Nash left early in the game with a Tyson Chandler elbow to the head, Nash returned for the 113-110 win in Oklahoma City Sunday and scored 20 points and dished out 10 assists. Grant Hill led the game with 30 points and 11 rebounds as the Suns shot an astounding 57.7% from the floor (42-73 FG) and held the Thunder to 42.9% shooting (33-77 FG).

Phoenix will likely have a smaller roster again in San Antonio, while the new additions of Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus, and Marcin Gortat are set to take their physicals Monday afternoon, likely delaying their debuts until Thursday against the Heat.

This small roster and lackluster defense should not be able to challenge the top-ranked Spurs. San Antonio looks to win its ninth consecutive game (5-3 ATS over the past eight wins) and its 22nd victory in 24 contests. The Spurs won the first meeting on Nov. 3 in Phoenix, 112-110, shooting 54.5% from the floor and draining 6-of-14 from three-point land. Tim Duncan had his second-highest scoring and rebounding game for the season with 25 points and 17 boards.

The point guard matchup will be an exciting one as Tony Parker, who is averaging 24.8 points in his last nine regular-season home games against the Suns, takes on Steve Nash, who is averaging 14.3 points and eight assists in 47 contests against Phoenix. However, with four of five starters and one reserve averaging double-digit scoring for the Spurs, led by Manu Ginobili with 19.8 PPG, the Spurs’ depth and tighter defense make them a solid favorite to win.

The FoxSheets show that:

SAN ANTONIO is 186-136 ATS (57.8%, +36.4 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1996. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 98.0, OPPONENT 87.9 - (Rating = 1*).

SAN ANTONIO is 28-14 ATS (66.7%, +12.6 Units) off a home win over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 101.2, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2010, 07:06 PM

Heat host Dallas seeking 13th straight win

DALLAS MAVERICKS (21-5)

at MIAMI HEAT (21-8)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 190.5

The Mavericks were the last team to beat the Heat on Nov. 27, 106-95, and they’d love to be the team to snap Miami’s 12-game win streak. Dallas has won its past four visits to Miami, since losing to the Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals, but getting a win Monday night will be no simple task.

The Heat seem to have found “it” since their rocky start, averaging 101.9 points while allowing 86.7 points (+15.2 PPG margin) during the win streak. Miami has been astounding at home with a 12-3 mark, but is only 5-9-1 ATS. The Big Three of Wade, Bosh, and James are averaging over 66 points per contest, led by James’ 24.5 PPG. Each of them scored more than 20 in the last meeting against Dallas, but they’ll need more players to drop points as the next highest scorer only had nine (James Jones).

Miami rallied to a 95-94 win in Washington Saturday night, led by James with 32 points, six assists, and seven boards. The Heat struggled against the Wizards defense, shooting 43.1% from the floor, committing 17 turnovers, and getting outscored 38-24 in the paint.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks hit the road for the first time since visiting Utah on Dec. 3 to embark on a tough three-game road trip. Dallas has been phenomenal in away games this season with an 8-1 mark (SU and ATS), losing only to the Hornets and failing to cover the spread against the Kings.

After losing to the Bucks 103-99 on Dec. 13 to snap a 12-game win streak of their own, the Mavs have won two in a row. Dallas took a 106-91 win over Phoenix Friday night, after Steve Nash left in the first quarter from a Tyson Chandler elbow to the head and didn’t return. The easy win allowed head coach Rick Carlisle the opportunity to rest his starters, with no one playing more than Dirk Nowitzki’s 29 minutes. Nowitzki has played well in his last 11 trips to Miami, averaging 26.6 points.

The Mavericks are scoring 101.6 PPG in away games this season while holding opponents to 94.2 PPG. The Heat, who hold opponents to a league-best 91.2 PPG, are also averaging over 100 each contest (101.0 PPG). Both teams have an all-around tough challenge tonight, but with the way the Heat have been playing they look good to win and snap the Mavs’ four-game win streak in South Beach. However, the Mavs won’t go down without a fight, so I pick Dallas to cover the spread.

The Mavericks are 11-5 ATS against Miami since 1996, and these FoxSheets stats also pick Dallas to cover the spread:

Play On - Underdogs (DALLAS) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%). (88-44 since 1996.) (66.7%, +39.6 units. Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 20-9 ATS (69.0%, +10.1 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 101.4, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2010, 07:06 PM

Duke goes for 21st straight win overall

ELON PHOENIX (4-6)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (10-0)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -36.5, Total: 151

Duke has won 25 straight games at home and an NCAA-best 83 in a row at home against non-conference foes. That doesn't bode well for Elon, which visits Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday night.

The Blue Devils have accumulated 20 consecutive victories and look to open a season 11-0 for the ninth time under coach Mike Krzyzewski.

Point guard Kyrie Irving (17.4 PPG, 5.1 APG) will miss his third straight game with a foot injury, but Duke hasn't missed a beat with Nolan Smith (16.6 PPG, 5.5 APG) taking over as the primary ball handler. Smith had a team-best 22 points and five assists in an 84-47 victory over Saint Louis on Dec. 11. Against Bradley on Dec. 8, he scored only two points but dished out a career-high 10 assists in an 83-48 win. Kyle Singler (16.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) has scored in double-digits in nine of Duke's 10 games and had 21 against Saint Louis on 8-of-15 shooting.

Even without Irving, the Blue Devils feature one of the country's most prolific offenses. Duke is among the nation's best in points scored (88.1 PPG, 4th in NCAA), FG Pct (50.1%, 9th in nation), and assists (17.6 APG, 13th in country). It has scored at least 79 points in every game this season, including impressive victories over then-No. 4 Kansas State (82-68) and then-No. 6 Michigan State (84-79).

Elon, which has lost four of its past six games, has beaten only one D-I opponent all season. That came against Gardner-Webb on Dec. 7, 90-82. The Phoenix faced two ACC teams in November and dropped both of those contests by a wide margin (76-57 at Maryland and 89-70 vs. Wake Forest).

Elon fell at home to Southern Conference rival Chattanooga on Friday, 71-65, to drop to 0-3 in conference play. Freshman guard Jack Isenbarger averages a team-best 14.9 PPG, and was the only Phoenix player to score in double figures with 22 points against the Mocs. He hit 8-of-16 from the field, including 6-of-11 from three-point range.

Duke has won 13-of-18 meetings with Elon, but the last time the two teams met was nearly 75 years ago on Jan. 2, 1936. But if the Blue Devils' history against the Southern Conference is any indication, they should have no problem on Monday. Duke has won 45 straight games against SoCon opponents, and its last loss to a SoCon team was a 75-73 defeat to Davidson on Dec. 29, 1981.

This FoxSheets trend likes Duke to win and cover the mammoth spread:

Play On - Favorites of 10 or more points (DUKE) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games, with just two starters returning from last season. (40-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +23.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Mike Krzyzewski is 89-54 ATS (62.2%, +29.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points as the coach of DUKE. The average score was DUKE 87.1, OPPONENT 62.3 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets also like the Under:

Play Under - Home teams against the total (DUKE) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (>=20/game), after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better.(74-33 since 1997.) (69.2%, +37.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2010, 07:07 PM

Streaking Canes travel to streaking Tampa

CAROLINA HURRICANES (15-12-4, 34 pts)

at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (18-10-4, 40 pts)

Puck drops: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -145, Carolina +125, Total 5.5

Carolina travels to Tampa to take on its division rival Lightning on Monday night.

The Hurricanes have rebounded after suffering through a stretch that saw them win just three out of 12 games. The Hurricanes enter Monday winners of four straight. Their recent hot streak has seen them move within four points of the Bruins for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This will be the Hurricanes’ sixth road game in their last seven contests overall, but they have won three straight on the road. Eric Staal has four goals in his last two games and has moved into a tie for seventh in the league with 16 goals. Goaltender Cam Ward has made 10 straight starts for Carolina and has performed very well in his last five games, posting a 1.60 GAA.

Tampa enters having won its past three games. After going through a six-game stretch where he didn’t score a goal and recorded just two assists, Steven Stamkos has scored four goals and totaled six points in his last four games. Martin St. Louis has a goal and five assists over that same span. The Lightning’s goaltending has been their biggest downfall this season as they rank last in the NHL in save percentage (87.7) and only the Oilers and Islanders have a higher GAA than Tampa (3.27). However, Mike Smith has answered the bell the last two games, registering a .961 save percentage and 1.00 GAA in winning both contests.

Carolina forward Jiri Tlusty (arm) is out indefinitely. Tampa Bay forward Steve Downie (ankle) is on injured reserve.

Stamkos has one goal and three assists in 11 career games against Carolina - he has at least six goals and 11 points against every other Southeast opponent. Mike Smith has both good and bad going for him on Monday. He is 6-0 at home this season, but is 0-6-3 with a 3.29 GAA in his career against the Hurricanes. In a game where both teams are playing well, I’m going to take the home team. I like Tampa Bay to win its fourth straight game.

FoxSheets says:

CAROLINA is 1-13 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CAROLINA 2.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-20-2010, 07:08 PM

Pens look to end two-game skid hosting Coyotes

PHOENIX COYOTES (15-9-7, 37 pts)

at PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (21-10-2, 44 pts)

Puck drops: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -200, Phoenix +170, Total 5.5

Phoenix continues its six-game road swing Monday night traveling to take on Sidney Crosby and the Penguins.

Since sitting at 7-8-1 after a loss to Bruins on November 10, the Penguins have dominated the NHL going 14-2-1, but those two losses have come in their last two games to division opponents. Their last loss against the Rangers was particularly disturbing since they allowed four third-period goals in a 4-1 loss. Crosby assisted on a goal by Evgeni Malkin (who has all three of the Penguins goals in their last two games – his first two games back after a four-game absence due to a knee injury) and now has registered a point in 20 consecutive games, totaling 39 points (20 G, 19 A) over that span.

Phoenix rallied from a one-goal deficit in the third period to defeat the Islanders in a shootout on Saturday. Not the most noteworthy of accomplishments considering how poor the Islanders have played this season, but a win is a win. It also was a nice rebound after blowing a pair of two-goal leads and losing in a shootout in the previous game against the Rangers. Captain Shane Doan has three goals and four assists in his past six games. Keith Yandle has a goal and eight assists in his last seven games. Phoenix is one of five teams in the NHL (Red Wings, Canucks, Predators and Flyers) that have single-digit regulation losses.

Ilya Bryzgalov remains day-to-day for Phoenix, which managed to get Matt Climie in uniform to back up Jason LaBarbera for Saturday's game. Forward Chris Kunitz is day-to-day for Pittsburgh while forwards Jordan Staal and Mike Comrie are on injured reserve.

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. The Penguins won the first game in November at Phoenix 4-3. Coming off two straight losses, I like Pittsburgh to rebound and continue its overall strong play of the last month-and-a-half.

The FoxSheets also likes the Penguins based on these two trends including a five-star statistic:

PITTSBURGH is 15-1 ATS (+13.6 Units) after playing a home game this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.0, OPPONENT 1.8 - (Rating = 5*).

PITTSBURGH is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a home loss by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.6, OPPONENT 2.0 - (Rating = 3*).

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