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**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 07:46 PM

Mavericks favored by 7 over Suns on Friday

PHOENIX SUNS (12-12)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (20-5)

Tip-off: Friday, 9:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -7, Total: 210.5

As Ricky Bobby in Talladega Nights would say, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” Well, the Suns have found a way to be both, leading the league with 109 PPG, but sitting dead last with 110 PPG allowed. Dallas marks the first stop of a difficult three-game Western Conference road trip. Phoenix has been struggling in away games this season, winning only 5-of-12 (5-6-1 ATS), but had two big wins in Utah and L.A. (Lakers). After losing three in a row (SU and ATS), Phoenix got a much-needed win over Minnesota, 128-122, Wednesday night.

Jason Richardson (19 PPG) led the game with 29 points, and Steve Nash (18.1 PPG, 10.6 APG) finished with a season-high 19 assists and added 11 points. The win, however, was against the second-worst defensive team in the league (109.8 PPG). The Suns will have to work harder for points against the Mavericks, who have held opponents to 92.7 PPG in the American Airlines Center this season. Nash has played some of his best ball in his 26 career games against the Mavs, scoring 16.2 PPG and dishing 9.3 APG.

Dallas will end its six-game homestead against Phoenix, after bouncing back from its only loss in 13 games (Milwaukee, Dec. 13) to win 103-98 over Portland Wednesday night. The Mavs continue struggling to cover the spread at home (favored by an average of 7 points per game), after failing to cover the 7-point spread over the Blazers to make them 6-8-2 ATS. Caron Butler led the Mavericks with 23 points, followed by Dirk Nowitzki with 21. Dallas shot 54.1% from the floor and made 20-of-21 free throws.

Both teams are shooting 48.0 FG Pct, however, the Suns are averaging more than 10 points more per contest (109.0). Defense will be crucial for the Mavs to get a win, but the Suns’ will likely make it a close game with their fast-paced, high-scoring offense. Phoenix has lost their last five trips to the AAC (1-3-1 ATS), but is 17-15 ATS (13-20 SU) in Dallas since 1996.

These FoxSheets trends pick Phoenix to cover the spread:

DALLAS is 7-20 ATS (25.9%, -15.0 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 99.3, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 2*).

DALLAS is 6-21 ATS (22.2%, -17.1 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 101.8, OPPONENT 99.3 - (Rating = 2*).

In games played in Dallas since 1996, 18-of-33 games have gone Over the total, and this FoxSheets stat also picks the Over:

PHOENIX is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was PHOENIX 113.6, OPPONENT 119.4 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 07:47 PM

Heat travel to NY seeking 11th straight win

MIAMI HEAT (19-8)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (16-10)

Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -5, Total: 210

This week is one of figuring out what kind of team the New York Knicks have turned into over the last month. The Knicks began a stretch last Sunday that included games against the Nuggets, Celtics and Heat at home. While they passed their first test with their eighth straight win against the Nuggets, they failed in losing to the Celtics 118-116 on Wednesday night. Friday night they continue they journey of self-discovery against the Miami Heat.

The loss to the Celtics was especially painful considering the Celtics were playing without their top three centers. Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal and Kendrick Perkins were all out with various injuries, and New York played about as well as they could against Boston, shooting 53.2 percent and scoring 116 points, both which were season highs for the Celtics. Amar’e Stoudemire has been playing at an MVP level for the Knicks so far this season. Entering Friday’s game, Stoudemire has scored 30 or more points in nine straight games, a new Knicks record, and is averaging 34.4 PPG and 10.7 RPG while shooting 59.4 percent from the field over that span.

The Heat have won 10 straight games overall and their six-point victory over the Cavs on Wednesday snapped a streak of nine straight wins by double-digits. After struggling ATS, going 1-12 over a 13-game stretch at one point, Miami has gone 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games, including 5-0 on the road. Dwyane Wade and LeBron James have led the Heat in their resurgence. After 17 games the Heat stood at 9-8 and James and Wade combined to average 43.9 percent shooting from the field and 43.4 PPG. In their last 10 games, James and Wade have combined to shoot 54.8 percent from the field and average 52.2 PPG.

The Knicks have been excellent ATS this season, going 18-7 overall, but are just 6-5 at home. However, they have won five of their past seven ATS at home and an amazing 14 of their past 16 ATS overall.

The Heat have won five straight against the Knicks, including the last four ATS. The Knicks have been playing very well, but are just not on Miami’s talent level and are playing them at the wrong time. I like Miami to bring the Knicks back down to earth and cover in this one.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Underdogs (NEW YORK) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (45-13 since 1996.) (77.6%, +30.7 units. Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (104-61 over the last 5 seasons.) (63%, +36.9 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 07:48 PM

Jazz are slight favorite at New Orleans

UTAH JAZZ (18-8)

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (15-10)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Utah -1, Total: 190.5

The Jazz enjoyed a three-day break before heading to New Orleans to start a four-game road trip over the next six days. After a seven-game win streak (SU and ATS), Utah has been unable to find a rhythm, teeter-tottering to a 3-3 record over the past six games (2-4 ATS).

Utah won 108-95 over Golden State at home on Monday. Deron Williams (23 PPG, 9.8 APG) scored 30 points and dished 10 assists, shooting 50% from the field (8-for-16) and three-point range (4-for-8), giving him three consecutive 30-point games on 50 percent shooting or better.

Williams had an impressive performance in the previous meeting against the Hornets on Nov. 24, scoring 26 points and tallying 11 assists in the 105-87 win in Utah. New Orleans’ defense, which is holding opponents to 92.0 PPG (2nd-best in NBA), struggled against the Jazz’s offense, as Utah shot 48.8% (40-82 FG) and outscored the Hornets 44-32 in the paint.

Meanwhile, the Hornets had their biggest comeback in franchise history Wednesday, when they rallied from a 23-point, second-half deficit to win 94-91 over the Kings, snapping their three-game losing skid (0-2-1 ATS). Chris Paul led the Hornets with 22 points and had 11 assists, but it was reserve Marcus Thornton who stepped up during his 24 minutes on the court (after not playing three of the past five games), scoring 17 of his season-high 19 points in the second half.

The Hornets will face a more difficult challenge against the Jazz, who are 7-3 (SU and ATS) on the road. But it bodes well for them playing at home, where they are 10-3 SU (7-6 ATS). New Orleans is still struggling offensively, averaging only 87.3 points over the past eight games. The Hornets only connected on 29-of-69 shots (42%) in their last meeting against the Jazz, and they will have to find a way to drop buckets in the second go around if they want any chance to contend with Utah.

The Jazz are 7-1 (SU and ATS) against the Hornets over the past three seasons, and these FoxSheets trends pick Utah to cover the spread:

Play Against - Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - avenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a close home win by 3 points or less. (55-23 since 1996.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*).

UTAH is 36-16 ATS (69.2%, +18.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 104.4, OPPONENT 99.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Since 1996, 24 of 38 games (63%) have gone Under the total between these two teams and this FoxSheets stat also favors the Under:

NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 88.8, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-17-2010, 07:48 PM

Tennessee looks to bounce back at Charlotte

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (7-1)

at CHARLOTTE 49ERS (4-6)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Tennessee -11.5

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water. Safe to believe in the streaky, defensively-tenacious, scary-athletic potential of Bruce Pearl’s Tennessee squad to defeat, and sometimes toy with, talented teams such as Villanova and Pittsburgh. Just when you thought your own personal bracketology analysis had this top-10 team all set to sneak its way into Final Four chat room discussions … CHOMP! The upset shark attacked (disguised as the Oakland Golden Grizzlies) taking a bite out of Tennessee. Friday night, we get to see if the Volunteers learned a lesson as they try to recover on the road against the upset minded Charlotte 49ers. Are we going to need a bigger boat?

Not that Tennessee doesn’t have a knack for producing a stinker performance now and then. The Vols did lose their final exhibition game to a Division II school, then struggled mightily against early-season opponents Belmont and Missouri State. But Tuesday night’s defeat was humbling because it came two days after the Volunteers’ most impressive win of the season, an 83-76 drubbing of Pittsburgh that was not as close as the score would indicate. Winning a Sweet 16-caliber game, then losing to a strong mid-major underdog two days later? That smells like the kind of thing that could end your season quickly in March. Also troubling, the performance of top scorer Scotty Hopson (16.5 PPG) who followed up a career-best 27 point performance at Pittsburgh with a 33 minute, 1-for-7, seven-point nightmare versus Oakland. Pearl will have to find a way to get Hopson’s offense going early, as well as improve the team’s performance in two key areas: rebounding and three-point shooting. The Volunteers, one of the better rebounding teams in the nation, lost the battle of the boards to Oakland, 34-33. The Golden Grizzlies also forced Tennessee into 22% shooting from beyond the arc (4-of-18).

On the other hand, when you start comparing the kind of issues that Charlotte is dealing with, an off-shooting night is small change. Just three days ago, the 49ers kicked its leading scorer, senior Shamari Spears (17.0 PPG) off the team. The dismissal followed a suspension, which in turn followed a benching, after which Spears had tweeted that he was contemplating quitting the team. It was the third time in two years Spears had been suspended from the squad. A bad marriage is now over. (Elin and Tiger have a better chance of reconciliation). Without Spears, the 49ers have failed to score 70 points in three straight games, and are barely shooting 40% from the field. It gets worse. Second leading scorer Jamar Briscoe (14.8 PPG) may not be able to pick up the slack. Briscoe is nursing an Achilles tendon injury and was held to just eight points on 2-of-11 shooting in the 49ers’ last game, an 82-68 loss to Davidson. On paper, this would appear to be the wrong time for a shorthanded 4-6 Charlotte squad to be taking on a team like Tennessee, but with three upsets and two other major scares in the top-25 this week, the hunters in college basketball have suddenly become the hunted. Beware.

All that being said, the FoxSheets are picking Tennessee on Friday night:

CHARLOTTE is 7-23 ATS (23.3%, -18.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CHARLOTTE 70.9, OPPONENT 71.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - A road team (TENNESSEE) - after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half, with just two starters returning from last season. (88-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +35.2 units. Rating = 2*).

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