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False Alarms...or Red Alerts?
December 2, 2010
Now that the college hoops season has moved into December, we’ve had a few weeks to take note of many teams that have been playing either better, or worse, than expected in the early going. Following is a quick update on which of those developments might simply be false alarms...or red alerts. Straight-up and pointspread marks thru December 1.
Boise State (6-0 straight up, 5-0 vs. line)...false alarm? WAC sources are beginning to pay very close attention to the Broncos, who have quickly adapted to new HC Leon Rice, fresh from Mark Few’s staff at Gonzaga. The thought among most observers was that the senior-laden Boise lineup might be slow to adapt to Rice’s various offensive sets and playbook that featured more motion than predecessor Greg Graham’s schemes, but so far the transition has been seamless. Especially flourishing in the new Rice system are srs. F Robert Arnold (a spindly 170-pounder with a quick release from the perimeter and contributing 18.5 ppg on an astounding 59% FG shooting in the first few weeks) and G La’Shard Anderson (13.7 ppg), who shook off a finger injury to lead the recent 80-51 rout at Northern Illinois. One of Boise’s main concerns heading into this season was a lack of go-to scoring options, although Arnold and Anderson appear to be filling those roles quite nicely. The seniors have also quickly bought into Rice’s defensive schemes. Boise remains without a traditional post threat, but keep in mind that some of Few’s better Gonzaga teams functioned efficiently without scoring threats on the blocks, either, and the lack of size does not figure to be too much of a problem in a smaller league such as the WAC. Watch these guys closely.
Cal State Fullerton (2-5 SU, 3-3 vs. line)...red alert? The Big West appears underwhelming once more, so there’s a chance the Titans could still make some noise when league play commences. But regional observers indicate that CSF lacks some of the explosive offensive components of recent entertaining editions, and it did not help HC Bob Burton that starting PG Jacques Streeter decided to transfer to UTEP in the offseason, when 6-10 C Bryce Webster also opted to leave early and pursue a career overseas. The Titans are undersized and forcing roughhouse 6-6, 240-lb. PF Jer’Vaughn Johnson (Burton’s lone returning starter) to take on all comers in the paint. For the moment, CSF’s hopes are dependent upon long-range bomber sr. G Devon Peltier (only 34% beyond arc) and skinny former South Florida transfer F Orane Chin (not durable enough for inside work, but an interesting weapon who can float to the perimeter) bringing their shooting eyes every night. Otherwise, the Titans could be in trouble, especially vs. a foe with any size whatsoever.
Cincinnati (6-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line)...false alarm? Never mind the Bearcats’ 6-0 break from the gate, we’re more excited about the retro circa-1962 uniforms that Cincy broke out for the recent game against nearby Dayton. Shades of Tom Thacker and Tony Yates! The schedule has been very favorable for HC Mick Cronin the early going, but the Bearcats nonetheless opened many eyes with their 68-34 domination of the aforementioned Flyers on November 27. Back to the modern threads (let’s see more of the retro look!), Cincy subsequently topped Wright State 77-69 to move to 6-0 for the first time in HC Mick Cronin’s tenure. Big East observers have been impressed with the Bearcats’ defensive resolve, and the fact Cincy could flourish without physical, bruising 6-9 PF Yancy Gates contributing much to the cause (only 5 points) vs. Dayton was actually cause for optimism in the Queen City. But the Bearcats progress will depend largely upon how much production they receive in the perimeter game, of which 6-4 frosh G Sean Kilpatrick (50% beyond the arc in early action) could prove a valuable component off the bench, and perhaps soon into the starting lineup. As well as more consistency from PG Cashmere Wright (only 29% beyond the arc thru the Wright State game). Cincy intrigues, however, owning size beyond Gates, with 6-11 Ibrahima Thomas and the aptly-named 7-footer Biggie McClain adding to the intimidation factor that can’t hurt when Big East play commences.
Cleveland State (8-0 SU, 4-2 vs. line )...false alarm? We’re starting to believe in the Vikings, who were on our watch list at the beginning of the campaign and became the first team in the country to reach 8 wins. Coach Gary Waters returned all of his starters from a year ago and features a potentially dominant backcourt led by smooth sr. Norris Cole (21.5 ppg) and fellow Gs Trevon Harmon (12.8 ppg), who excels in the transition game, and Jeremy Montgomery (10.5 ppg), bigger and more physical than Harmon but also historically a dangerous long-range threat. The key to early improvement, however, has been the fast-forwarding of 6-9, 275-lb. bruiser Aaron Pogue’s progress. Pogue is mostly keeping out of foul trouble and has improved both his scoring and rebound numbers in the early going. One cautionary note is that the early slate has not been overly demanding, and that Waters believes his team could be performing better, noting Montgomery’s early struggles beyond the arc, and a worse-than-expected assist/TO ratio. Still, the Horizon League isn’t the Big Ten, and the Vikings have enough firepower to camouflage any of those shortcomings in upcoming league play.
George Washington (2-4 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? Help! So might HC Karl Hobbs be hollering as the Colonials have stumbled to three straight defeats in what have effectively be re-runs of one another. Specifically, the Colonials can’t hit the broadside of a barn, failing to convert better than 38% of their field goals in the last four games. The ongoing absence of 6-5 swingman Lasan Kromah, their leading returning scorer who is likely out a couple of more weeks with a foot injury, has not helped matters, but it’s apparent that GW is offensively-challenged until further notice.
Illinois State (5-2 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? Don’t be fooled by the Redbirds’ 5-2 straight-up mark. Coach Tim Jankovich downgraded the schedule in November to account for a revamped lineup, and the Redbirds were swamped by visiting UNLV on Nov. 30 in their first serious test of the season. ISU remains a work in progress until further notice, as Jankovich tries to replace three key starters from a year ago, including longtime linchpin G Osiris Eldridge. The new backcourt combination has not demonstrated much firepower, with spindly 6-9 soph F Jackie Carmichael (who likes to play away from the bucket) emerging as the best scoring option in the early going. But ISU lacks much presence in the paint, and it will take some time to replace the firepower Eldridge and fellow graduates Dinma Odiakosa and Lloyd Phillips provided the past few years for a succession of NIT teams. The Redbirds’ shallow pointspread performance is more indicative of the situation in Normal.
UMass (7-0 SU, 3-0 vs. line)...false alarm? We’ll find out a bit more about the Minutemen this weekend when facing their stiffest challenge to date against Boston College. A favorable early slate has contributed to the 7-0 break from the gate, but there are reasons for HC Derek Kellogg to be encouraged, with soph swingman Javorn Farrell (12.4 ppg) emerging as a reliable second scoring option behind explosive sr. G Anthony Gurley (21.3 ppg, including 58% beyond arc). Kellogg’s decision to bring 6-9 jr. frontliner and former Oregon State transfer Sean Carter off of the bench has proved a masterstroke, as Carter has been flourishing in his new role. An early 67-48 win over capable TCU suggests there might be some substance behind the Amherst revival.
San Diego (1-5 SU, 0-5 vs. line)...red alert? It’s seeming like a long time ago that USD was a Big Dance participant and pulled a major upset in the first round of the tourney against UConn. That is now a bit further back in the rear-view mirror (2008), and the Toreros have lost significant momentum in the 33 months since for HC Bill Grier, a onetime Mark Few aide at Gonzaga whose star has fallen the past couple of seasons. Grier’s rebuilt frontcourt is counting on frosh recruits to deliver, but so far none have displayed any consistency on the attack end. His only semi-reliable scoring options appear to be in the backcourt, with lone returning starter Matt Dorr (10.6 ppg) complemented by Bradley transfer Darian Norris (10.2 ppg), plus 6-5 SF Ken Rancifer (11.3 ppg). But until the Toreros can find some scoring production in the paint, and the frosh "bigs" also begin to assert themselves on defense, USD remains a one-dimensional, perimeter-oriented team, and very vulnerable to opponents with any size whatsoever.
Nevada (1-5 SU, 2-3 vs. line)...red alert? The Wolf Pack is looking for some star power to replace recent stalwarts Armon Johnson and Luke Babbitt, who both left school early after last season and are now drawing paychecks from the NBA Portland Trailblazers. It’s no wonder Nevada is struggling in their absences, as the talent pipeline that has been churning out featured performers for much of the last decade in Reno has apparently dried up. Thus, second-year HC David Carter could be at the helm of a sinking ship unless 6-7 Duke transfer Olen Czyz (a local Reno product) emerges as the latest in a line of Wolf Pack stars. Czyz, who becomes eligible in mid-December after starting a couple of games for Coach K early last season, could be that go-to force the Pack needs, with his ability to play on the perimeter or on the blocks reminding some of Babbitt. Another transfer, G Malik Story (via Indiana), is already making contributions (10.8 ppg and an eye-opening 58% beyond the arc), and holdover F Dario Hunt (12.5 ppg) is an effective frontliner, but the belief is that the equation could change for the positive in a big way once Czyz becomes eligible. Along with frosh PG Deonte Burton getting more comfy in his role running the offense, Nevada (which has been away from its home Lawlor Center since the opening win vs. Montana. finally returning on Saturday vs. ranked UNLV) could still be heard from in WAC play.
Washington State (5-0 SU, 4-0 vs. line)...false alarm? Given that there appears to be room in the Pac-10 for new contenders to emerge, west coast observers are keeping a close eye on Wazzu. The Cougs no longer bear any resemblance to the patient, defense-oriented Tony Bennett teams that made a pair of Big Dance visits in recent years. Wazzu began the transformation into an uptempo, bombs-away outfit last year under new HC Ken Bone, and the conversion now appears complete thanks to the addition of juco G Faisal Aden (20.8 pg), a very pleasant surprise in the early going and contributing to a potent backcourt 1-2 punch alongside 6-6 holdover Klay Thompson (22.2 ppg). Both Aden and Thompson are connecting on better than 50% of their FG attempts in the early going as well. Meanwhile, 6-10 soph F Brock Motum (nearly 10 ppg in early going) has emerged as another scoring option in the paint, while springy 6-8 jr. DeAngelo Casto appears back at full strength after a foot injury kept him out of a couple of games. The Cougs figure to be even more dangerous when G Reggie Moore (out early with a wrist injury) returns to the lineup, but Wazzu has been functioning just fine without him in the first few weeks. Bone’s Cougs are scoring points at an 83.6 ppg clip, and we’ll get a better read on how much Wazzu has progressed in the next week, when Kansas State and Gonzaga both visit Friel Court.
December 2, 2010
Now that the college hoops season has moved into December, we’ve had a few weeks to take note of many teams that have been playing either better, or worse, than expected in the early going. Following is a quick update on which of those developments might simply be false alarms...or red alerts. Straight-up and pointspread marks thru December 1.
Boise State (6-0 straight up, 5-0 vs. line)...false alarm? WAC sources are beginning to pay very close attention to the Broncos, who have quickly adapted to new HC Leon Rice, fresh from Mark Few’s staff at Gonzaga. The thought among most observers was that the senior-laden Boise lineup might be slow to adapt to Rice’s various offensive sets and playbook that featured more motion than predecessor Greg Graham’s schemes, but so far the transition has been seamless. Especially flourishing in the new Rice system are srs. F Robert Arnold (a spindly 170-pounder with a quick release from the perimeter and contributing 18.5 ppg on an astounding 59% FG shooting in the first few weeks) and G La’Shard Anderson (13.7 ppg), who shook off a finger injury to lead the recent 80-51 rout at Northern Illinois. One of Boise’s main concerns heading into this season was a lack of go-to scoring options, although Arnold and Anderson appear to be filling those roles quite nicely. The seniors have also quickly bought into Rice’s defensive schemes. Boise remains without a traditional post threat, but keep in mind that some of Few’s better Gonzaga teams functioned efficiently without scoring threats on the blocks, either, and the lack of size does not figure to be too much of a problem in a smaller league such as the WAC. Watch these guys closely.
Cal State Fullerton (2-5 SU, 3-3 vs. line)...red alert? The Big West appears underwhelming once more, so there’s a chance the Titans could still make some noise when league play commences. But regional observers indicate that CSF lacks some of the explosive offensive components of recent entertaining editions, and it did not help HC Bob Burton that starting PG Jacques Streeter decided to transfer to UTEP in the offseason, when 6-10 C Bryce Webster also opted to leave early and pursue a career overseas. The Titans are undersized and forcing roughhouse 6-6, 240-lb. PF Jer’Vaughn Johnson (Burton’s lone returning starter) to take on all comers in the paint. For the moment, CSF’s hopes are dependent upon long-range bomber sr. G Devon Peltier (only 34% beyond arc) and skinny former South Florida transfer F Orane Chin (not durable enough for inside work, but an interesting weapon who can float to the perimeter) bringing their shooting eyes every night. Otherwise, the Titans could be in trouble, especially vs. a foe with any size whatsoever.
Cincinnati (6-0 SU, 1-1 vs. line)...false alarm? Never mind the Bearcats’ 6-0 break from the gate, we’re more excited about the retro circa-1962 uniforms that Cincy broke out for the recent game against nearby Dayton. Shades of Tom Thacker and Tony Yates! The schedule has been very favorable for HC Mick Cronin the early going, but the Bearcats nonetheless opened many eyes with their 68-34 domination of the aforementioned Flyers on November 27. Back to the modern threads (let’s see more of the retro look!), Cincy subsequently topped Wright State 77-69 to move to 6-0 for the first time in HC Mick Cronin’s tenure. Big East observers have been impressed with the Bearcats’ defensive resolve, and the fact Cincy could flourish without physical, bruising 6-9 PF Yancy Gates contributing much to the cause (only 5 points) vs. Dayton was actually cause for optimism in the Queen City. But the Bearcats progress will depend largely upon how much production they receive in the perimeter game, of which 6-4 frosh G Sean Kilpatrick (50% beyond the arc in early action) could prove a valuable component off the bench, and perhaps soon into the starting lineup. As well as more consistency from PG Cashmere Wright (only 29% beyond the arc thru the Wright State game). Cincy intrigues, however, owning size beyond Gates, with 6-11 Ibrahima Thomas and the aptly-named 7-footer Biggie McClain adding to the intimidation factor that can’t hurt when Big East play commences.
Cleveland State (8-0 SU, 4-2 vs. line )...false alarm? We’re starting to believe in the Vikings, who were on our watch list at the beginning of the campaign and became the first team in the country to reach 8 wins. Coach Gary Waters returned all of his starters from a year ago and features a potentially dominant backcourt led by smooth sr. Norris Cole (21.5 ppg) and fellow Gs Trevon Harmon (12.8 ppg), who excels in the transition game, and Jeremy Montgomery (10.5 ppg), bigger and more physical than Harmon but also historically a dangerous long-range threat. The key to early improvement, however, has been the fast-forwarding of 6-9, 275-lb. bruiser Aaron Pogue’s progress. Pogue is mostly keeping out of foul trouble and has improved both his scoring and rebound numbers in the early going. One cautionary note is that the early slate has not been overly demanding, and that Waters believes his team could be performing better, noting Montgomery’s early struggles beyond the arc, and a worse-than-expected assist/TO ratio. Still, the Horizon League isn’t the Big Ten, and the Vikings have enough firepower to camouflage any of those shortcomings in upcoming league play.
George Washington (2-4 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? Help! So might HC Karl Hobbs be hollering as the Colonials have stumbled to three straight defeats in what have effectively be re-runs of one another. Specifically, the Colonials can’t hit the broadside of a barn, failing to convert better than 38% of their field goals in the last four games. The ongoing absence of 6-5 swingman Lasan Kromah, their leading returning scorer who is likely out a couple of more weeks with a foot injury, has not helped matters, but it’s apparent that GW is offensively-challenged until further notice.
Illinois State (5-2 SU, 1-5 vs. line)...red alert? Don’t be fooled by the Redbirds’ 5-2 straight-up mark. Coach Tim Jankovich downgraded the schedule in November to account for a revamped lineup, and the Redbirds were swamped by visiting UNLV on Nov. 30 in their first serious test of the season. ISU remains a work in progress until further notice, as Jankovich tries to replace three key starters from a year ago, including longtime linchpin G Osiris Eldridge. The new backcourt combination has not demonstrated much firepower, with spindly 6-9 soph F Jackie Carmichael (who likes to play away from the bucket) emerging as the best scoring option in the early going. But ISU lacks much presence in the paint, and it will take some time to replace the firepower Eldridge and fellow graduates Dinma Odiakosa and Lloyd Phillips provided the past few years for a succession of NIT teams. The Redbirds’ shallow pointspread performance is more indicative of the situation in Normal.
UMass (7-0 SU, 3-0 vs. line)...false alarm? We’ll find out a bit more about the Minutemen this weekend when facing their stiffest challenge to date against Boston College. A favorable early slate has contributed to the 7-0 break from the gate, but there are reasons for HC Derek Kellogg to be encouraged, with soph swingman Javorn Farrell (12.4 ppg) emerging as a reliable second scoring option behind explosive sr. G Anthony Gurley (21.3 ppg, including 58% beyond arc). Kellogg’s decision to bring 6-9 jr. frontliner and former Oregon State transfer Sean Carter off of the bench has proved a masterstroke, as Carter has been flourishing in his new role. An early 67-48 win over capable TCU suggests there might be some substance behind the Amherst revival.
San Diego (1-5 SU, 0-5 vs. line)...red alert? It’s seeming like a long time ago that USD was a Big Dance participant and pulled a major upset in the first round of the tourney against UConn. That is now a bit further back in the rear-view mirror (2008), and the Toreros have lost significant momentum in the 33 months since for HC Bill Grier, a onetime Mark Few aide at Gonzaga whose star has fallen the past couple of seasons. Grier’s rebuilt frontcourt is counting on frosh recruits to deliver, but so far none have displayed any consistency on the attack end. His only semi-reliable scoring options appear to be in the backcourt, with lone returning starter Matt Dorr (10.6 ppg) complemented by Bradley transfer Darian Norris (10.2 ppg), plus 6-5 SF Ken Rancifer (11.3 ppg). But until the Toreros can find some scoring production in the paint, and the frosh "bigs" also begin to assert themselves on defense, USD remains a one-dimensional, perimeter-oriented team, and very vulnerable to opponents with any size whatsoever.
Nevada (1-5 SU, 2-3 vs. line)...red alert? The Wolf Pack is looking for some star power to replace recent stalwarts Armon Johnson and Luke Babbitt, who both left school early after last season and are now drawing paychecks from the NBA Portland Trailblazers. It’s no wonder Nevada is struggling in their absences, as the talent pipeline that has been churning out featured performers for much of the last decade in Reno has apparently dried up. Thus, second-year HC David Carter could be at the helm of a sinking ship unless 6-7 Duke transfer Olen Czyz (a local Reno product) emerges as the latest in a line of Wolf Pack stars. Czyz, who becomes eligible in mid-December after starting a couple of games for Coach K early last season, could be that go-to force the Pack needs, with his ability to play on the perimeter or on the blocks reminding some of Babbitt. Another transfer, G Malik Story (via Indiana), is already making contributions (10.8 ppg and an eye-opening 58% beyond the arc), and holdover F Dario Hunt (12.5 ppg) is an effective frontliner, but the belief is that the equation could change for the positive in a big way once Czyz becomes eligible. Along with frosh PG Deonte Burton getting more comfy in his role running the offense, Nevada (which has been away from its home Lawlor Center since the opening win vs. Montana. finally returning on Saturday vs. ranked UNLV) could still be heard from in WAC play.
Washington State (5-0 SU, 4-0 vs. line)...false alarm? Given that there appears to be room in the Pac-10 for new contenders to emerge, west coast observers are keeping a close eye on Wazzu. The Cougs no longer bear any resemblance to the patient, defense-oriented Tony Bennett teams that made a pair of Big Dance visits in recent years. Wazzu began the transformation into an uptempo, bombs-away outfit last year under new HC Ken Bone, and the conversion now appears complete thanks to the addition of juco G Faisal Aden (20.8 pg), a very pleasant surprise in the early going and contributing to a potent backcourt 1-2 punch alongside 6-6 holdover Klay Thompson (22.2 ppg). Both Aden and Thompson are connecting on better than 50% of their FG attempts in the early going as well. Meanwhile, 6-10 soph F Brock Motum (nearly 10 ppg in early going) has emerged as another scoring option in the paint, while springy 6-8 jr. DeAngelo Casto appears back at full strength after a foot injury kept him out of a couple of games. The Cougs figure to be even more dangerous when G Reggie Moore (out early with a wrist injury) returns to the lineup, but Wazzu has been functioning just fine without him in the first few weeks. Bone’s Cougs are scoring points at an 83.6 ppg clip, and we’ll get a better read on how much Wazzu has progressed in the next week, when Kansas State and Gonzaga both visit Friel Court.
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