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**StarDust Bum** · 12-14-2010, 06:53 PM

Louisville goes for 9-0 start when hosting Drexel

DREXEL DRAGONS (6-1)

at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (8-0)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisville -14

The Louisville Cardinals were a preseason pick by the Big East coaches to finish 8th in the conference. After an 8-0 start, we can conclude that the Big East conference is either loaded with quality teams, or the rest of the league is in for quite a surprise when they play Rick Pitino’s squad this year. Tuesday night, instead of being surprised, Drexel University and its head coach James “Bruiser” Flint will try to pull off a surprise against the 21st-ranked Cardinals in Freedom Hall.

Pitino’s crew is off to its best start in 14 years. One year after losing its three top scorers, this year’s Cardinals team has been keyed by balanced scoring. Senior Preston Knowles (12.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG) leads a quartet of players all scoring in double figures, but the balance goes even deeper. Three other players are averaging just over 5.0 PPG, while two other players are averaging over 8.0 PPG. Knowles, the only senior on the squad, is coming off a game against UNLV in which he scored all 20 of his points in the second half to help Louisville overcome a five-point halftime deficit en route to a 77-69 victory. Another by-product of the Cardinals balanced scoring sheet is evidenced by the team’s assist numbers. Louisville averages 18.1 assists per game, good for 6th-best in Division I.

In a town full of big-time sports news, Drexel’s 6-1 start has been a pleasant surprise on the Philadelphia sports radar. In an unusual statistical twist, Drexel’s top scorer, who is also tied for the team lead in minutes played, comes off the bench. Sophomore guard Chris Fouch leads the nation in scoring among bench players at 22.4 PPG. Fouch is shooting nearly as well from beyond the arc (43.1%) as he is from the field (45.0%). Junior forward Samme Givens, the team’s top rebounder, is the only other Dragon player scoring in double figures (11.3 PPG, 11.4 RPG). Drexel is second to Pittsburgh nationally in rebounding margin, outboarding its opponents by 13.4 RPG.

The last time these two teams met was in the 1986 NCAA Tournament, Drexel was Louisville’s first-round opponent, and the Cardinals were en route to winning a national title. If history could repeat itself in 2010, with both teams earning tournament bids next March, Pitino and Flint would gladly sign up for that outcome.

Both teams are 5-1 ATS this year. Louisville has had little trouble winning big, having already covered spreads of -24, -22.5 and -19.5 this year. But Drexel is not an easy team to blow out because of its rebounding prowess and its lack of turnovers (10.5 per game in last four contests. These two FoxSheets trends like Drexel to keep the final margin under 14 points on Tuesday:

LOUISVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after one or more consecutive Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LOUISVILLE 75.2, OPPONENT 64.6 - (Rating = 3*).

DREXEL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DREXEL 64.6, OPPONENT 63.0 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-14-2010, 06:54 PM

Tennessee guns for 8-0 start to season

OAKLAND GOLDEN GRIZZLIES (5-5)

at TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (7-0)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

Red-hot Tennessee aims for its first 8-0 start in 10 seasons when it hosts Oakland on Tuesday night.

The streaking Volunteers improved to 7-0 after an 83-76 victory on the road in Pittsburgh in the SEC-Big East Invitational, which snapped the Panthers' home win streak against non-conference opponents at 57. With the victory, Tennessee is 5-2 versus top-five teams during the last five seasons. To its credit, UT also defeated then-No. 7 Villanova 78-68 earlier this season.

Scotty Hopson (17.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 41% on three-pointers) scored a career-high 27 points on 10-of-13 shooting against Pitt. He's reached double figures in each of Tennessee's seven games and is averaging 21.3 PPG on 64% shooting (21-for-33) in his past three games. Hopson is one of three Vols who average double-digits in scoring. Freshman Tobias Harris (15.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG) tallied only seven points against Pitt on 2-of-8 shooting from the field. Cameron Tatum (12.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG) added 14 points against the Panthers.

Oakland has lost two straight and has five losses on the season, but it would be a mistake for the Vols to take the Golden Grizzlies lightly. Three of those setbacks have come against ranked teams (at Purdue 82-67, at Illinois, 74-63, and a one-point defeat to Michigan State, 77-76, on Saturday). Oakland also fell at West Virginia, 95-71, in its season opener.

Talented big man Keith Benson (18.1 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 3.4 BPG) had 17 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks in a losing effort against the Spartans. It marked his seventh double-double on the season. Larry Wright (9.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG) chipped in with 21 points, but he also had six of Oakland's 14 turnovers.

Oakland hasn't had much success against ranked teams, losing 26 of its 27 games since 1998. Tennessee is 40-1 in non-conference home games since 2005. Its only home non-conference loss in that stretch came against Gonzaga, 89-79, in overtime on Jan. 7, 2009.

The Vols are playing extremely well and should be able to defeat the Golden Grizzlies at home. However, it won't be as easy as some might think, considering Oakland is 7-2 ATS this season, including 6-1 ATS away from home.

This FoxSheets trend likes Tennessee to win, but Oakland to cover the spread:

Play Against - Any team (TENNESSEE) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams (>=+6 reb/game). (65-30 since 1997.) (68.4%, +32 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-14-2010, 06:55 PM

Lakers look to continue dominance over Wizards

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (17-7)

at WASHINGTON WIZARDS (6-16)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -10.5, Total: 204

The Lakers will look to beat Washington for the ninth straight time when the two teams meet on Tuesday night at the Verizon Center.

L.A. hopes to finish off the season sweep of the Wizards after winning a 115-108 decision on Dec. 7 at the Staples Center. Kobe Bryant (26.7 PPG, 4.7 APG) had 32 points in that game, including nine in the final five minutes and 23 seconds. Lamar Odom (15.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG) chipped in with 24 points and seven rebounds, and Pau Gasol (19.6 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG) tallied 21 points to go along with 14 rebounds and eight assists.

The Lakers need to do a better job of guarding Nick Young (12.8 PPG) this time around. The former USC guard hit a career-best six 3-pointers and scored a season-high 30 points on 10-of-18 shooting in last week's meeting. In six career games against the Lakers, he is averaging 18.3 PPG, his most against any other team, and 8.9 PPG better than his career numbers.

Meanwhile, the Wizards continue to struggle. They've dropped four straight games and eight of their last nine. John Wall (16.7 PPG, 8.9 APG, 2.3 SPG) had 22 points and a career-best 14 assists in the first meeting in L.A., but he's questionable for Tuesday with knee soreness. He has missed seven of Washington's first 22 games with foot and knee injuries. Gilbert Arenas (17.5 PPG, 5.2 APG) scored 23 points last week against the Lakers, and is expected to play despite a knee injury. But Andray Blatche (17.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will miss Tuesday’s game with a swollen left knee. Blatche missed two games last week with a bruised hip, but returned in a 101-95 loss to the Knicks on Friday, and finished with 16 points.

The Lakers average 106.4 PPG, but have gone under 100 PPG in three straight contests and eight of their past 10, including Sunday's 99-92 win over New Jersey. That might explain why they've won only six of their past 11 games. But that should change against a Wizards defense, which allows over 106 PPG.

L.A. has also faced fourth-quarter deficits in seven of its past nine games. By contrast, the Lakers trailed in the final quarter in just four of their first 15 games.

Bryant had 25 of his 32 points in the second half against the Nets. He has scored less than 20 points only once this season (12 points in a 121-96 win over Portland on Nov. 7). Gasol added 15 points and 11 rebounds versus New Jersey.

The Lakers should continue their recent dominance over Washington, especially with Blatche being out and Wall and Arenas at less than 100 percent. Look for Los Angeles to win by at least 15 points on Tuesday.

This FoxSheets trend likes the Lakers to win and cover the spread:

WASHINGTON is 9-21 ATS (30.0%, -14.1 Units) after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 94.8, OPPONENT 104.6 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-14-2010, 06:56 PM

Nuggets go for 10th straight home win

ORLANDO MAGIC (16-8)

at DENVER NUGGETS (14-9)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -1, Total: 204

Denver looks to capitalize on some home cooking as it hosts road-weary Orlando on Tuesday night at the Pepsi Center. At 10-1, the Nuggets have been stellar at home, where they've won nine straight games while averaging 112.7 PPG during the streak. However, the Nuggets are only 3-7 ATS in home games this season. They're glad to be back in the friendly confines after finishing a 1-3 road trip with a 129-125 loss to the Knicks on Sunday.

Carmelo Anthony (23.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG) returned to the lineup against New York after missing two games with an inflamed knee. He scored 31 points on 11-of-27 shooting and pulled down 13 rebounds. Nene Hilario (15.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) added 26 points for the second straight game and also finished with eight boards and two blocks.

Meanwhile, Chauncey Billups (15.0 PPG, 5.4 APG) will be looking to rebound from one of his worst games of the season. Billups tallied a season-low four points (1-7 FG) against the Knicks and is shooting only 31.8% in December. But facing the Magic might end his shooting slump. Billups has scored 20.9 PPG against Orlando since 2005-06, which is his best average against any team he's faced at least seven times.

The Nuggets are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, averaging nearly 107 PPG and 111.4 PPG at home. But they're also struggling to stop teams by allowing almost 105 PPG, including 111.4 PPG over the past five games. The Magic are limiting opponents to 91.9 PPG, while scoring 97 PPG. However Orlando’s scoring average is a meager 88.2 PPG in the past five games.

Orlando ended its four-game losing skid on Sunday night with a 94-85 victory over the Clippers. The Magic will be playing their seventh road game in eight contests, and are 3-4 during that stretch.

Dwight Howard (21.5 PPG, 12 RPG, 2.4 BPG) scored 22 points and pulled down eight boards, and the Magic's defense limited the Clippers to 38% shooting from the field. Jameer Nelson (14.9 PPG, 7.2 APG) finished with 19 points and nine assists.

Orlando has lost six of seven at Denver, including all six games when Anthony has played for the Nuggets. The Magic have averaged 18.1 turnovers in those losses, and Howard has 4.3 turnovers per game in his six visits.

The teams split their two games last season, as Denver won at home 115-97 behind Anthony's 27 points and Billups' 24. Howard was held to eight points for Orlando on 1-of-7 shooting.

The Magic returned the favor with a 103-97 win in Orlando in March as J.J. Redick (7.8 PPG) led the way with 23 points, eight assists and seven rebounds.

Expect the Nuggets to continue their home success on Tuesday night.

These two FoxSheets trends like Denver as the pick on Tuesday:

Play On - Home favorites (DENVER) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (45-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. (42-16 since 1996.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also think the Over is a good side bet for this game:

Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (42-15 since 1996.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-14-2010, 06:58 PM

Vols are legit
December 14, 2010

Say what you want about Bruce Pearl, but the dude can coach. Although he faces an eight-game suspension from SEC Commissioner Mike Slive that won’t allow him to be on the sidelines for his team’s first eight conference games, Pearl has Tennessee unbeaten through seven games.

The Vols went into Pittsburgh on Dec. 11 and dominated the Panthers 83-76 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. UT beat the Big East school as an eight-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300).

Scotty Hopson was the catalyst, making 10-of-13 from the field and all three of his 3-point attempts on his way to a 27-point effort. Melvin Goins added 19 points and Cameron Tatum finished with 14.

With additional wins over Villanova and VCU on a neutral court, Tennessee has the look of the SEC’s best team in mid-December. That’s not bad for a squad that came into the campaign engulfed in turmoil and picked to finish fourth in its division.

And it’s no mirage. One year after coming up just one basket shy of a Final Four berth, Tennessee is a legit Final Four contender.

The Vols have a go-to scorer in Hopson and one of the country’s most physical bangers in Brian Williams. They have athleticism and experience galore when you talk about Goins, Tatum, Williams and Hopson. They also go 11-deep, have a big-time freshman in Tobias Harris and the ultimate role player in Steven Pearl.

Pearl rebounds, sets screens, devours loose balls, takes charges, is solid on ‘D’ and never takes a bad shot. Harris can rebound (6.0 per game), defend and score (15.3 points per game).

Tennessee will take a 5-2 spread record into a Dec. 14 home game vs. Oakland. The Vols have these remaining games left on their non-conference slate: at Charlotte (12/17), vs. USC (12/21), vs. Belmont (12/23), vs. UT-Martin (12/29), vs. College of Charleston (12/31), vs. Memphis (1/5) and at UConn (1/22).

UNLV went down for the first time this past Saturday, but two Mountain West schools are still undefeated. Brigham Young (10-0 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) remained unscathed with Saturday’s 87-65 win over Arizona as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ in Salt Lake City.

Jimmer Fredette scored 33 points and had nine rebounds in the blowout win for the Cougars, who led the Wildcats by 19 at halftime. Fredette, who is most likely going to be a first-team All-American, averages 23.7 points and 4.1 assists per game.

Dave Rose’s team will return to the court Saturday (12/18) at UCLA. The Cougars might be without senior forward Noah Harstock, whose status should be checked after he sustained a concussion vs. Arizona. Harstock averages 9.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and a team-high 1.9 blocked shots per game. Kyle Collinsworth (6.1 PPG), a freshman guard, is also ‘questionable’ against the Bruins after missing the ‘Zona game with a sprained ankle suffered in an 86-58 win at Vermont on Dec. 8.

San Diego St. (11-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) has been the more profitable MWC team to wager on. The Aztecs had covered the number in six straight contests until failing to cash in a 51-45 win over Cal-Poly SLO on Dec. 8.

Steve Fisher’s team has one of the nation’s most underrated players in Kawhi Leonard, who averages a team-high 16.3 points and 9.9 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Leonard was sick this past weekend and did not play against Cal Poly, but he’s expected to be fine for Saturday’s home game versus UCSB.

UNLV had won its first nine games before losing 77-69 at Louisville on Dec. 8. The Rebels had previously beaten Wisconsin, Murray St., Va. Tech and Nevada.

Gonzaga (4-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) has lost three in a row, falling below .500 following Saturday’s 83-79 loss at Notre Dame. The Bulldogs did cover the spread against the Irish as 8 ½-point underdogs. They still have a slew of tough non-conference games left, including at Baylor (12/18), vs. Xavier (12/22), vs. Oklahoma St. (12/31), at Wake Forest (1/2) and vs. Memphis (2/5).

UConn (8-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) has played three cupcakes since stunning most by winning the Maui Invitational. Kemba Walker is still leading the nation in scoring with a 28.1 PPG average. He’s also averaging 5.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. The Huskies could get a test from Harvard when they host the Crimson on Dec. 22.

Harvard (7-2 SU, 3-0 ATS) has got another legit contender for the Ivy League’s NCAA Tournament berth even though it lost star Jeremy Lin. Both of the Crimson’s losses came by three points (at Michigan and at George Mason).

Boston College won its ACC opener Sunday by a 79-75 count at Maryland. The Eagles won their sixth straight game as 7 ½-point road underdogs. They have quality wins against Texas A&M and Cal.

Steve Donahue’s team got off to an inauspicious start when his tenure began with a home loss to Yale as a 20-point home favorite. But BC’s only loss since then came against Wisconsin and it has one of the ACC’s premier players in junior guard Reggie Jackson, who averages team-highs in scoring (19.2 PPG), assists (4.5 APG), steals (1.4 SPG) and blocked shots (0.7 BPG).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Tennessee’s six games with a total.

--The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for Boston College.

--Va. Tech is just 2-5-1 ATS. The Hokies have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 6-2-1 clip.

--Central Florida is still unbeaten after eight games, but the Knights are just 1-1 ATS with only a pair of lined contests so far. The Knights’ remaining non-conference slate includes vs. Louisiana (12/15), at Miami (12/18), at UMass (12/22) and vs. Furman (12/29). Obviously, Donnie Jones’ team is hoping the Gators and Hurricanes have big years. UCF beat UF as a 3 ½-point underdog in Atlanta on Dec. 1.

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