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**StarDust Bum** · 12-13-2010, 06:40 PM

Ravens favored by 3 at Houston on Monday night

BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-4)
at HOUSTON TEXANS (5-7)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Baltimore -3, Total: 46

Two struggling teams desperate for a win meet in Houston for Monday Night Football. The Ravens have scored a mere 27 total points in their past two games while the Texans have lost five of their past six contests. Despite the recent failures, both teams still have a shot to make the playoffs, especially the Ravens.

Baltimore’s biggest problem is its rushing attack. The Ravens rushed for a season-low 43 yards in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh on the heels of just 92 rushing yards against Tampa Bay the prior week. The return of fullback Le’Ron McClain (sprained ankle) gives a huge boost to the running game as a lead blocker, but also to QB Joe Flacco in pass protection. Flacco has had a great year, with 19 TD and just eight interceptions, and should find plenty of open receivers with Houston’s shaky pass defense. RB Ray Rice should also be able to gain yardage, both on the ground and out of the backfield as a receiver. Rice is averaging 105 total YPG this year, which is a big drop-off from last year’s 128 total YPG. He only has one touchdown in his past seven games.

Houston’s huge problem area all season has been its secondary. The Texans have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL with 287 YPG. The offense has done its job for the most part, ranking sixth in the league with 373 total YPG. RB Arian Foster has been the best running back in football with 1,230 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and 15 total touchdowns. WR Andre Johnson (high ankle sprain) has looked healthier over the past two weeks with 15 catches for 205 yards and a touchdown. Houston also gets more good news as starting TE Owen Daniels is set to return to action after missing the past five weeks with a hamstring injury.

The Ravens have won all three meetings in the Texans’ brief history, including a 41-13 thrashing in Houston in 2008. These two FoxSheets trends expect Baltimore to win again on Monday night.

Play On - Road teams (BALTIMORE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BALTIMORE) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. (80-42 since 1983.) (65.6%, +33.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also side with the Over.

HOUSTON is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.The average score was HOUSTON 27.5, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-13-2010, 06:41 PM

Favre, Harvin could both miss Monday's game

NEW YORK GIANTS (8-4)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-7)

Kickoff: Monday, 7:20 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -3, Total: 43

Two injury-riddled teams meet Monday at Ford Field in Detroit in search of a third straight win. The Giants have some good news with their banged-up receiving corps, as Steve Smith (pectoral) is expected to return to the starting lineup and Hakeem Nicks (leg) will also try to play Sunday, albeit on a limited basis. The Vikings injury situation is much more bleak. QB Brett Favre (shoulder/elbow) will be a game-time decision and top WR Percy Harvin (migraines) is doubtful to play this week.

Smith has missed the past four games and will give a huge boost to Eli Manning and the Giants’ passing game. Smith has at least four catches in each of his eight games this year, gaining 517 yards in his half-season of play. Nicks, who has missed the past two games, should be limited to playing roughly half of his usual workload. The big-play receiver has 62 catches for 800 yards and nine touchdowns in 10 games this year. Manning, whose 17 interceptions are surpassed only by Favre’s 18, saw his seven-game, multi-touchdown streak end last week in the 31-7 blowout win over Washington. Manning has only thrown 49 passes in the past two weeks as the Giants continue to improve their rushing attack with 332 yards in two games. New York rushed for 197 yards on 36 carries against the Redskins and rank sixth in the NFL with 143 rushing YPG. However, the Vikings rank fourth in the league in run defense at 92 YPG, so the Giants may try to throw the ball more, especially with their top two receivers back on the field.

For Minnesota, Favre practiced on a limited basis with the first team Friday, but Tarvaris Jackson received the majority of quarterback reps this week. Favre only has 10 touchdowns this season and his 69.6 quarterback rating is third-worst among qualified players, ahead of only Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen. Jackson was also plagued by interceptions last week, throwing three in just 22 pass attempts. But Jackson did complete 15 of those attempts for 187 yards and two touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) and WR Sidney Rice (hip) will both start Sunday and will get the majority of touches in this offense. Peterson scored three times and rushed for 107 of the team’s 210 yards last week against Buffalo, while Rice had five catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills.

The Giants are 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in their last six trips to Minnesota, but the FoxSheets show a highly-rated reason to play against New York, and side with home underdog Minnesota on Sunday.

Play Against - Road favorites (NY GIANTS) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.(40-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Over.

NY GIANTS are 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY GIANTS 26.9, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-13-2010, 06:42 PM

Roy expected to play Monday in Memphis

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (12-12)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (10-14)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -3.5, Total: 189.5

The Blazers head to Memphis for their third of four consecutive road games. Prior to losing to the Spurs 95-78 Sunday night, Portland had won four in a row (SU and ATS) after a six-game losing skid. The Blazers only shot 37.9% (33-87 FG) against the Spurs, while allowing San Antonio to shoot 9-of-17 from three-point range. Wesley Matthews led the team with 17 points, and LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby were the only other two players to score double digits (16 points and 11 points, respectively).

Brandon Roy tweaked his knee in San Antonio, and despite dealing with pain, he is set to play in Memphis Monday night. Portland was without Roy in its last trip to FedExForum on Nov. 16, when Matthews led the Blazers to a 100-99 win with 30 points (11-19 FG). Portland is hoping the return of leading scorer Roy (17.7 PPG), can prevent a two-game losing skid. The Blazers are only 5-9 SU in away games (4-7-3 ATS).

In the meantime, the Grizzlies return home from a four-game Western Conference road trip. Memphis edged the Clippers by one in a 84-83 win Saturday afternoon. Zach Randolph led the team with 18 points and 13 boards to finish off L.A., despite the Grizzlies shooting worse from all areas on the floor and getting outrebounded 50-41. Memphis is a decent 6-5 SU (5-5-1 ATS) at home, but is feeling pretty good having won four of five at home since its loss to Portland.

The Grizzlies are one of the 10 worst defensive teams, allowing opponents to score 102.1 PPG. However, their defense should be able to hold Portland’s offense, which is the eighth-lowest scoring team in the league (94.8 PPG). The Blazers are playing well defensively, holding opponents to 95.0 points per contest, but if they want to avoid starting another losing streak, they’re going to have to make some baskets. They should look to continue giving the ball to Matthews, as they are 6-3 when he scores at least 18 points this season.

Portland has won the last eight matchups SU in Memphis, and these FoxSheets stats also favor Portland to cover the spread:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. (33-10 since 1996.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

PORTLAND is 19-6 ATS (76.0%, +12.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 98.6, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-13-2010, 06:43 PM

Unbeaten SDSU favored by 36.5 over Cal Poly

CAL POLY MUSTANGS (3-5)

at SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (10-0)

Tip-off: Monday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego State -26.5

If his team can keep up their early winning ways, someday Michigan might become that “other” school that Steve Fisher once coached for.

San Diego State has bolted out to a 10-0 mark, surging into the Top 15 among the nation’s powerhouse basketball programs. With impressive early-season victories over Gonzaga and California, Steve Fisher’s Aztecs are sending notice to fans on the other side of the Mississippi to start paying attention to those West Coast college hoops scores, and not just the ones from the Pac-10. When San Diego State hosts the Mustangs of Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo Monday night, the Aztecs will be attempting to extend the school’s longest win streak (10) since winning 13 straight games in the 1955-56 season, when the Aztecs were an NAIA program. SDSU has very balanced scoring, boasting four players in double figures, led by sophomore forward Kawhi Leonard (16.3 PPG, 9.9 RPG). Leonard has posted seven double-double games already this season. Senior guard D.J. Gay (11.8 PPG) tops the team in assists with 3.8 APG, while fellow seniors Billy White (11.8 PPG) and Malcolm Thomas (10.2 PPG) round out the scoring quartet.

Cal Poly is led by junior forward David Hanson (15.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and senior guard Shawn Lewis (13.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG). While the Mustangs have struggled, getting off to a 3-5 start, they did show considerable fight in their last game Saturday night vs. UCLA, rallying from a 17-point deficit before falling 72-61. For a team that’s averaging only 58 PPG, and shooting 37.5% from the field (good for only 324th-best in Division I) pulling off the upset will be a very tall order. Especially considering that the host Aztecs have beaten them in the Viejas Arena 10 straight times and 22 of the 26 meetings all-time in that building.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends like San Diego State to win and cover the spread:

SAN DIEGO ST is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 69.5, OPPONENT 62.1 - (Rating = 3*).

SAN DIEGO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season.The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 76.4, OPPONENT 59.6 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-13-2010, 06:44 PM

Heat go for 9th straight win on Monday

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (14-9)

at MIAMI HEAT (17-8)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -11, Total: 185

The Hornets face the Heat in Miami Monday night for the second and final matchup of the season. New Orleans won the first meeting 96-93 on Nov. 5 in the Big Easy, shooting 49.4% and holding the Heat to 42.3% shooting.

Emeka Okafor had a season-high 26 points (12-13 FG) and Chris Paul had a season-high 19 assists, as the Hornets outscored the Heat 50-30 in the paint. Dwyane Wade led the game with 28 points, but committed seven of the team’s 13 turnovers, while LeBron James contributed 20 points and 10 assists in their combined 81 minutes of play.

But, oh how the tables can turn. Since winning 11-of-12 games SU to start the season (8-3-1 ATS), the Hornets are a dismal 3-8 (SU and ATS). New Orleans scored its lowest points of the season in a 88-70 loss in Philadelphia Sunday afternoon, shooting a season-low 30.4% (24-79 FG). Chris Paul was the only Hornet to score double-digits (25 points, 8-12 FG). New Orleans is only 2-6 (SU and ATS) over the past eight games, with both wins occurring at home, and is 5-6 SU in away games (4-6-1 ATS).

In the meantime, the Heat have won eight in a row (all by double-digits) and have covered the spread the past seven games. Miami returns home from a four-game road trip, winning most recently in Sacramento 104-83. Wade led with 36 points (15-23 FG), while Chris Bosh added 14 points and 17 boards, and James contributed 25 points and 10 rebounds. Miami has been successful at home this season going 10-3 SU, but has been unkind to bettors at 5-8 ATS.

Both the Heat and the Hornets have played tight defense, holding opponents to 91.3 PPG and 92.0 PPG, respectively, for the second-best and third-best spots in the league. The game changer? Offense. New Orleans is only averaging 88.0 points over the past eight contests, while Miami is averaging 102.3 points during its eight-game win streak.

New Orleans is 15-8 ATS in Miami since 1996, however, the Heat’s offense will be difficult to defend, and these FoxSheets stats pick Miami to cover the spread:

Play On - Favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. (26-5 since 1996.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*).

NEW ORLEANS is 39-64 ATS (37.9%, -31.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97.6, OPPONENT 101.7 - (Rating = 1*).

Three of five games have gone Under the total over the past three seasons, and with two of the top defending teams in the league facing each other, this FoxSheets trend also picks the Under:

NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 89.5, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-13-2010, 06:48 PM

MNF Doubleheader
December 12, 2010

The Ravens seem like the team lost in the upper-tier of the AFC as Baltimore tries to grab a road victory at Houston on Monday night. John Harbaugh's club looks to rebound after squandering a late lead against Pittsburgh last Sunday, while battling a Houston squad that has been off since last Thursday's setback at Philadelphia.

The race for home-field advantage in the AFC has gotten down to four teams between the Patriots, Steelers, Jets, and Ravens. Baltimore likely will be playing in the first round of the playoffs as they enter Monday's contest at 8-4 following the 13-10 home loss to Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. Troy Polamalu's forced fumble in the final minutes of regulation set up the go-ahead touchdown for the Steelers, avoiding a season sweep to the Ravens.

Baltimore's defense has played extremely well over the last five weeks, allowing 13 points or less four times. The lone hiccup came in the last-minute 26-21 defeat at Atlanta in mid-November, the fourth time this season the Ravens have lost a game when leading in the final quarter. The running game will have to get back on track after getting held to just 43 yards against the Steelers, but the shoddy Texans' defense has seen success on the ground.

Houston is allowing 26.8 ppg (27th in league), while giving up a league-worst 287 yards/game through the air. The rushing defense has held its own by limiting opponents to 101.4 yards/game on the ground, which is tied for 10th in the league with San Francisco. The Texans blew a 24-20 lead in a 34-24 loss at Philadelphia, failing to cover as 8 ½-point underdogs. Michael Vick rushed for the go-ahead touchdown, while throwing for the clinching score in the final minutes, capping off a 302-yard effort through the air.

The Texans have not been able to find their way after a 4-2 start, losing five of six games since their bye week. Houston hasn't benefited bettors in this cold stretch by covering just twice against the Jets and Titans. The lone victory for Gary Kubiak's club was a 20-0 shutout of Tennessee, who has dropped six straight games since a 5-2 beginning to the season.

The Ravens own a 3-5 ATS mark as a favorite this season, while Baltimore has split a pair of games when laying points on the road. The Bengals upended the Ravens in Week 2 as 2 ½-point underdogs, 15-10, while Baltimore knocked off Carolina, 37-13 in Week 13 as 13-point 'chalk.' Baltimore is riding a two-game 'over' streak on the road after cashing the 'under' in its first four games on the highway.

Houston has cashed the 'over' in four of the previous five contests, while allowing 29 points or more in seven of the past eight games. In games with the total listed at 46 or below, the Texans are 4-1 to the 'over' this season, as the blanking of Tennessee accounted for the only 'under.'

The last time these teams met came back in 2008 when the Ravens blew out the Texans at Reliant Stadium, 41-13. The game was moved from Week 2 to Week 10 due to the impact of Hurricane Ike in early September, kicking Houston out of its stadium for the first month of the season. Baltimore scored 22 points in the final quarter to easily cover as 2 ½-point road underdogs as Willis McGahee rushed for two touchdowns.

Following Sunday night's game, teams that played on Thursdays this season own a 6-1 ATS mark the following week. That excludes the Jets-Patriots and Saints-Bengals games from last week, as all four teams played with the same amount of rest.

The Ravens are listed as a three-point road favorite in most spots, while the total is set between 45 ½ and 46. The game will kick off at 8:30 PM EDT from Reliant Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Giants vs. Vikings - 7:20 PM EST

After the horrible weather in the Midwest diverted the Giants to Kansas City on Saturday, New York and Minnesota were unable to play on Sunday thanks to damage done to the Metrodome roof. The NFL decided to move the game to Ford Field in Detroit on Monday night as both teams will have to adjust on the fly for this important contest.

The concerns are different on both sides as the Giants are right in the mix of the NFC East race with a rematch against the Eagles coming next Sunday. On the flip side, the Vikings are pretty much done in the playoff race at 5-7, but Brett Favre's consecutive starts streak is still a major headline for Minnesota.

The Giants have won consecutive games following a two-game losing streak to the Eagles and Cowboys to move to 8-4 on the season. The defense has stepped up the last two weeks by limiting Jacksonville and Washington to 27 combined points after giving up 60 points in the two previous losses.

The Vikings are 2-0 since the firing of Brad Childress with wins over the Redskins and Bills. Favre threw only one pass in the blowout victory over Buffalo, as Tarvaris Jackson tossed a pair of touchdowns and three interceptions in the 38-7 drubbing of the Bills. The consecutive starts streak sits at 297 for Favre, who is a game-time decision on Monday night.

Minnesota owns an 0-7 ATS mark against teams that are .500 or better, including loss at the Packers, Jets, Patriots, and Saints. The Giants have been favored once on the road, as New York took care of business in a 41-7 beatdown of Seattle as seven-point favorites.

There is revenge on the mind of the Giants as they were blown out by the Vikings, 44-7 in the final game of last season. New York sits as four-point favorites in this neutral-site contest, while the total is set at 43 ½.

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