NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (12/9 - 12/13)

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, December 12

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Tips and Trends
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New England Patriots at Chicago Bears [4:15 PM ET]

PATRIOTS: (-3, O/U 41) New England is coming off their finest regular season performance in quite some time, a dominating 45-3 SU win over the Jets. New England is 10-2 SU, tied with the Atlanta for the best record in the entire NFL. The Patriots have lost both of their games this year on the road, where they are 4-2 SU. The Patriots are 7-4-1 ATS this year, including 4-2 ATS on the road. Hew England is 4-3-1 ATS as a favorite less than 7 PTS this season. QB Tom Brady is on the short list for NFL MVP this year. Brady has thrown for more than 3,000 YDS this year, along with 27 TD's against only 4 INT's. Brady leads all NFL Quarterbacks with a 109.5 QB Rating this season. New England is averaging 31.6 PPG this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Patriots are coming off their best performance of the season, and they will need to play another outstanding game to beat the gritty Bears on the road tonight. The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New England is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in December. The Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. New England is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Over is 12-2 in Patriots last 14 games overall.

Key Injuries - G Stephen Neal (shoulder) is out.

Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

BEARS: Chicago simply keeps winning, despite so many experts trying to predict their demise. The Bears are 9-3 SU, the 2nd best record in the NFC. Chicago has a 1 game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North. The Bears have won their past 5 games SU, alternating both great offensive and defensive performances. Chicago is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this season. The Bears are 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed home underdog this year. Chicago is averaging just 300 YPG this year, 4th fewest in the NFL. Despite this, QB Jay Cutler has thrown for more than 2,500 YDS and 17 TD's this year, against 10 INT's. RB Matt Forte has more than 1,100 total YDS this season, along with 8 TD's. Chicago has played outstanding defense all season long, allowing just 16 PPG, 3rd best in the NFL. The Bears are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in December.

Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as the listed underdog.
Under is 11-3 last 14 games played on grass.

Key Injuries - LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 14




Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys [NBC | 8:25 PM ET]

EAGLES: (-3.5 O/U 50.5) Philadelphia has won 4 of their past 5 games, and QB Michael Vick appears to be on his way to NFL MVP and the Pro Bowl. Vick has accumulated more than 2,700 total YDS in his time as starting QB, along with 21 TD's. Since Vick became starter, the Eagles have arguably the most dangerous offense in the NFL. Philadelphia is averaging 28.7 PPG and 400 YPG, 2nd and 1st respectively in the NFL. The Eagles have scored at least 26 PTS in each of their past 5 games. The Eagles are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS overall this year. The Eagles are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this season. Philadelphia has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 3 games both SU and ATS to Dallas. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Eagles are 6-2 ATS last 8 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - CB Asante Samuel (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 24

COWBOYS: Dallas has won 3 of their past 4 games SU, and remain the most dangerous 4-8 SU team in the NFL. The Cowboys have responded to the coaching change, and are finally playing up to their talent base. The Cowboys beat the Peyton Manning led Colts on the road as a 5.5 underdog in their most recent game. Dallas is 5-7 ATS this year, including 4-2 ATS as the listed underdog. The Cowboys are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS at home this year. Dallas is averaging 24.5 PPG this year, 10th best in the NFL. QB Jon Kitna has done a masterful job leading the Cowboys this year, as he's completed 65% of his passes with 11 TD's. 4 different WR's have more 4 or more TD's this year, led by Dez Bryant and his 6 TD's. The Cowboys have given up 65 PTS in their past 2 games combined, but that was against top ranked offenses Indianapolis and New Orleans. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on fieldturf. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Dallas is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played in December.

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS last 4 games overall.
Over is 8-3 last 11 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - TE Jason Witten (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)


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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, December 13

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What Bettors Need to Know
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New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3.5, 43.5)

Home Game In Detroit?

Mother Nature got in the way of Minnesota being able to host a game against the Giants that was supposed to be played Sunday afternoon at the Metrodome. The Giants couldn’t fly into Minnesota on Saturday because of a severe snowstorm in the Midwest.

The game was postponed to Monday night and had to be moved to Detroit because of damage to the Metrodome’s roof. The roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, which looks like a bubble atop the structure, in Minneapolis collapsed Sunday morning beneath the weight of the snow.

The roof started leaking water and, when it became clear stadium officials would not be able to fix the issues in time to have the Metrodome ready for Monday night, the NFL started brainstorming where to play the contest.

It was decided Sunday afternoon that the game would be played in Detroit at Ford Field.

ESPN’s Adam Shefter reported the Vikings wanted to move the game to the University of Minnesota’s home field but the league was told it would not be game-ready for Monday night.

Line Movement

The Giants opened as 1-point road favorites but the line was bet up to 2.5 during the week. The books took the game off the board when it became clear the game wouldn’t be played at the Metrodome. They reopened Sunday afternoon with the Giants favored by 3.5 points. Some shops even went as high as NYG -4.
The total is holding steady at 43.5.

What About Brett?

Brett Favre, who was slammed into the ground and left last week’s game against Buffalo, said in a text message to USA Today that he doubts he will be able to play Monday due to a shoulder injury, which would end his record consecutive games streak at 297.

Favre’s shoulder sprain is generally considered to be a three-week injury but the future Hall of Famer’s toughness has been well-documented during his 297-game consecutive start streak.

Vikings interim head coach Leslie Frasier told reporters on Friday that he wouldn’t hesitate to sit Favre and end the streak if he thought it’d be in the best interest of the club.

"If that's what I have to do, then that's what I have to do," Frazier told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "But we'll see."

Tarvaris Jackson would get the nod at QB if Favre isn’t healthy enough to play. Jackson completed 15 of 22 pass attempts for 187 yards and two TD passes in relief of Favre last week but he also was picked off three times.

Other Injuries

Giants center Shaun O’Hara (foot) and tackle Shawn Andrews (back) are both doubtful while tackle David Diehl (hip) is expected to return to the lineup after sitting out last week against the Redskins. The club will also welcome back wide receivers Hakeem Nicks (leg) and Steve Smith (pectoral) who’ve both missed multiple games over the last month.

Meanwhile, Favre isn’t the only player on offense that Minnesota is worrying about. Speedy receiver Percy Harvin is listed as doubtful for Monday’s game against the Giants due to a continuing migraine problem.

Might Be Giants

After dropping two games to Dallas and Philadelphia and committing eight turnovers - six by quarterback Eli Manning - the Giants have put together two strong defensive and error-free efforts against Jacksonville and Washington to keep them in the middle of the playoff picture.

New York, entering Sunday’s action, is tied with Philadelphia (8-4) atop the NFC East, although the Eagles won the first matchup between the teams, and is battling New Orleans (9-3), Green Bay (8-4) and Tampa Bay (7-5) for two wild-card berths.

After the Minnesota game, New York has critical games with Philadelphia and at Green Bay before concluding the season in Washington. The Eagles conclude their season with Dallas this week, New York, Minnesota and Dallas again.

The Giants better not get caught looking ahead, especially since Minnesota has dominated the recent series between the two.

"[The Vikings] kind of took advantage of us," cornerback Terrell Thomas told the New York Daily News. "We were low in numbers and they were trying to just beat us in the ground. We'll remember that. We don't care for it, but in the back of our mind, we're going to take that up there."

New Coach, New Results

Minnesota is 2-0 under interim coach Leslie Frazier thanks to an improved running game and a rejuvenated pass rush. After coming up with just six sacks in their first seven games, the Vikings have gotten to opposing quarterbacks 16 times in the past five games, with defensive end Jared Allen recording 7.5 sacks.

Minnesota beat Buffalo 38-14 last week as Adrian Peterson rushed for 107 yards and three touchdowns for the fourth time in his career.

Trends

The Giants are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams with losing records and they’re 10-3 in their last 13 games as road favorites.

Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with winning records and 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.

The over is 8-1-1 in the Giants’ last 10 games following an ATS win but the under is 9-4 in the Vikings’ last 13 games following a straight up win.



Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-2.5, 46)

Current Odds

The Ravens opened as 3-point road favorites and the line has held steady at most books, while a few shops have Baltimore at -2.5 (-120). The line might rise a bit on Monday night as 76 percent of the public is backing the Ravens according to the *********** consensus.

The over/under line opened at 45.5 and has since risen to 46 total points, despite the fact 55 percent of the public supports the under according to the *********** consensus.

Weather will not be an issue as the forecast is calling for clear conditions, plus Reliant Stadium has a retractable roof.

Injury Report

Baltimore will be without tight end Todd Heap who injured his hamstring last week. Heap is third on the team in receiving yards (546) and fourth in receptions (37) this season. Cornerback Fabian Washington also has a hamstring injury and is questionable, while fullback Le’Ron McClain and offensive guard Chris Chester are both probable.

Houston tight end Owens Daniels has missed the past five games, but he is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Star wide receiver Andre Johnson (71 receptions, 1,018 yards) continues to battle an ankle injury, but he’s listed as probable and expected to play. Defensive end Mario Williams is also probable, along with safety Bernard Pollard.

Protecting Flacco

The Baltimore offense has not played well in its last two games. The Ravens only scored a total of 27 points; they averaged 30 points per game in the four games prior. And a big reason for the decline in production has been a decline in two areas, their running game and their offensive line protection.

The Ravens had just 92 rushing yards against the Buccaneers and just 43 rushing yards last week against the Steelers. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been sacked 11 times in the past three games and a whopping 17 times in the last five games. There was none bigger than Troy Polamalu’s game-winning sack, forced fumble for the Steelers on Sunday night.

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is taking responsibility for that play.

“You’re looking at the guy responsible,” Cameron told reporters. “There was a flaw in that protection. In 25-plus years, I have never seen that happen, and it showed up at the worst possible time it could have, and it’s my job to catch that flaw.
“That flaw has been corrected. Next time you see a guy unblocked in that protection, it’ll be where the quarterback’s expecting it to be unblocked.”

Run, Foster, Run

Houston running back Arian Foster is the NFL’s leading rusher and is leading all AFC running backs in Pro Bowl voting with 414,033 total votes.

The 24-year-old Foster leads the league rushing touchdowns (13) and yards from scrimmage (1,709). His remarkable season has come by surprise to a lot of people after he went undrafted in 2009, partly because he ran a pedestrian-like 4.7-second 40-yard dash.

”I just kind of take what the defense gives me,” Foster says. “I’m a real smooth runner; I think I’m deceptively fast, I get upfield and I can make you miss in the open field.”

And Ravens Pro Bowl defensive tackle Haloti Ngata agrees with Foster’s self assessment.

“He hits the hole hard once he sees it, and he’s been doing that consistently against every team,” Ngata said. “He’ll start you one way and then once he sees that hole, he’ll just hit it.”

Kubiak Back to Denver?

Houston head coach Gary Kubiak made a name for himself as Denver’s offensive coordinator under head coach Mike Shanahan. Kubiak was the man calling plays for John Elway, and after Denver owner Pat Bowlen fired Josh McDainels, rumors have been swirling in the Mile High City.

Elway’s name has been mentioned to take over the personnel side of the organization (director of football operations) for Bowlen after he expressed a sincere interest in the job.

And if he gets the job, Elway’s top choice for the head coaching spot is said to be Kubiak. The two came into the league together in 1983 and then they worked together and won back-to-back Super Bowls with the Broncos.

But will Kubiak be willing to leave his hometown of Houston? And is he the right man for the job? In five seasons as Houston’s head coach, Kubiak and the Texans have just one winning season.

Keep an eye on this situation if it heats up because it could be a distraction for the Houston team going forward, especially if they continue to lose games.


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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, December 13

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Tips and Trends
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New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings [FOX | 7:20 PM ET]

GIANTS: (-4, O/U 43.5) New York used their home field advantage to the best of their abilities, as they beat Jacksonville and Washington over their past 2 games. The Giants are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS overall this season. New York is 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year, the same exact result in each exact contest both SU and ATS. New York is 2-1 ATS as a favorite of less than a TD this year. The Giants are averaging 25.7 PPG this year, 5th best in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this year, while completing better than 64% of his passes. Manning also has 23 TD's against 17 INT's this season. The Giants have plenty of revenge tonight, as they lost 7-44 SU in their last game against Minnesota. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. New York is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games. The Giants are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in December. The Giants are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU win. New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Giants are 10-3 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Hakeem Nicks (leg) is probable.

Projected Score: 21 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

VIKINGS: Minnesota has won their past 2 games, all since the firing of former head coach Brad Childress. The Vikings are finally playing up to their elite talent level. Minnesota is 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS overall this season. Minnesota is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this year. Tonight will be the 2nd time this year that Minnesota will be the listed home underdog. The 2 biggest concerns for the Vikings tonight is whether or not playing at home in a different environment will hurt this team, and whether or not QB Brett Favre starts yet again. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,123 YDS and 11 TD's this year. Defensively, Minnesota has allowed 21.1 PPG. However, over the past 2 weeks the Vikings have allowed just 27 PTS combined. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in December. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Vikings are 0-6 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 9-4 last 13 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 17



Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

RAVENS: (-3, O/U 46) Baltimore expects to have far more success offensively tonight, as they don't have to face Pittsburgh. The Ravens lost a hard fought battle last week to the Steelers. That loss put Baltimore at 8-4 SU, and leaves them battling for a Wild Card berth into the playoffs in the AFC. The Ravens are just 5-6-1 ATS overall this season, including 3-2-1 ATS on the road. Baltimore is averaging 21.7 PPG, right in the middle of the pack offensively in the NFL. The Ravens have the skill position players in place to have a dynamic offense. RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, and QB Joe Flacco are all potential Pro Bowl players. The Ravens continue to excel on defense, where they are among the NFL elite. Baltimore is allowing just 16.8 PPG this year, 4th best in the NFL. The Ravens have held each of their past 3 opponents to 13 PTS or fewer. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Baltimore is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Ravens are 4-1 ATS last 5 Monday games overall.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Todd Heap (hamstring) is out.

Projected Score: 24

TEXANS: Houston has lost 4 of their past 5 games, all but ending any postseason chances they had. Houston is 5-7 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Texans are 1-1 both SU and ATS as the listed home underdog this year. QB Matt Schaub has thrown for more than 3,000 YDS this season, including 17 TD's. RB Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing with 1,230 YDS this year with 13 TD's. WR Andre Johnson has caught 71 passes for more than 1,000 YDS this year. As great as the Texans offense is, their defense is another matter. Houston is giving up 26.8 PPG and 388 YPG this year, 6th and 4th worst in the NFL respectively. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Houston is 2-5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Texans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass.

Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key injuries - DE Mario Williams (hernia) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)


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[Spark]

*** MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***

BALTIMORE (8 - 4) @ HOUSTON (5 - 7)
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT Line: Ravens -3, O/U 46
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With a division title still within reach and only a handful of games remaining in the regular season, the Baltimore Ravens will need to bounce back quickly from a painful loss in their last game. The Houston Texans have had a few extra days to cope with a tough and damaging defeat of their own from the previous week. The Ravens begin their healing process with Monday's visit to Reliant Stadium, where the still-contending club takes on a Texans team that's had trouble getting out of tailspin that's being going on for more than a month.

Baltimore entered last week's play in control of the AFC North race and appeared poised to distance itself from its chief competition for the division crown, the Pittsburgh Steelers, when the two bitter rivals squared off this past Sunday. The Ravens were ahead for the majority of that game and held a four-point advantage with under 3 1/2 minutes to play, but a game-changing turnover led to late touchdown that gave the Steelers an uplifting 13-10 win and sole possession of first place.

The momentum-shifting moment occurred when blitzing Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu sacked Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco and forced a fumble that the Steelers recovered on the Baltimore nine-yard line. Less than a minute later, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger connected with running back Isaac Redman for the go-ahead points. The Ravens now trail the Steelers by a game in the standings with just four to play in the regular season, and have one more loss within the division than their hated foes.

Baltimore is still in good position in regards to making the playoffs, presently owning a two-game lead on a three-team pack consisting of San Diego, Oakland and Miami for the AFC's second Wild Card spot. The same can't be said about the Texans. A midseason downturn that's produced five losses in a six-game span has Houston in a familiar position entering the stretch run -- on the outside looking in of the postseason picture.

The Texans, who have never advanced to the playoffs in their nine-year existence, are now two games behind surging Jacksonville for the AFC South's top spot after being dealt a 34-24 Thursday night defeat at Philadelphia in Week 13. Houston put forth a determined third-quarter rally to overcome a 10-point halftime deficit in that contest, scoring 14 unanswered points to forge ahead, but its troublesome defense surrendered two touchdowns in the final 15 minutes that sealed the team's fate.

The Texans have now allowed 29 points or more in each of the five losses during their current swoon and have held an opponent under 24 points only once this entire season. That poor track record may bode well for a Baltimore offense that's seeking to break out of a mild recent slump. The Ravens mustered just 269 total yards against the Steelers last Sunday, one week after gaining a lackluster 92 rushing yards in a 17-10 win over Tampa Bay.

• SERIES HISTORY
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The Ravens have won each of the three previous meetings between the teams, with two of those victories taking place in Houston. Baltimore handed the Texans a 23-19 setback at Reliant Stadium in 2002 and came away with a 41-13 road rout during the 2008 season. That game was initially scheduled to be played in Week 2, but was pushed back into November due to the arrival of Hurricane Ike.

Baltimore, which also posted a 16-15 home win over the Texans in 2005, has lost a game in Houston before, however, falling by a 29-13 count to the Oilers at the Astrodome in 1996. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh won his only career encounter with the Texans, while Houston's Gary Kubiak is 0-1 all-time against both Harbaugh and Baltimore.

• WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
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Baltimore had established itself as a powerful running team during Harbaugh's first two seasons at the helm, placing in the NFL's top five in rushing yards in both those years, but hasn't been able to achieve the same success in that area in 2010. The Ravens are averaging only 3.6 yards per carry thus far, the second-lowest figure in the league, and managed a paltry 43 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh's formidable defense last week. Baltimore did not have fullback Le'Ron McClain (64 rushing yards, 15 receptions), the lead blocker for top running back Ray Rice (844 rushing yards, 3 TD, 49 receptions), available for that game due to a sprained ankle, but he's on track to return for Monday's contest. Rice has rushed for over 100 yards just once this year after eclipsing that mark five times during a breakthrough 2009 campaign, but the third-year pro has remained an impact receiver in an offense that has plenty of proven pass-catchers for Flacco (2988 passing yards, 19 TD, 8 INT).

Offseason pickup Anquan Boldin (56 receptions, 770 yards, 7 TD) has lived up to expectations as the primary target and comes in off a 118-yard, one-touchdown display on five catches against the Steelers, while 36-year-old Derrick Mason (47 receptions, 4 TD) has continued to be a consistent performer in his 14th NFL season. Flacco likely won't have trusty tight end Todd Heap (37 receptions, 5 TD) at his disposal after injuring a hamstring in the Pittsburgh game, which should present an opportunity for promising rookie Ed Dickson (8 receptions) and may mean an increased role for third receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (21 receptions, 2 TD) as well.

Flacco should have a chance to atone for a shaky showing last week with an inviting matchup against Houston's porous pass defense. The Texans have permitted an NFL-worst average of 287.4 yards per game through the air as well as 27 passing touchdowns, which also sits at the bottom of the league rankings. A young secondary in which cornerbacks Glover Quin (63 tackles, 3 INT, 12 PD) and Kareem Jackson (54 tackles, 2 INT, 9 PD) have undergone a baptism by fire hasn't gotten a whole lot of support from a pass rush that's generated only 19 sacks on the year and lacks a reliable complement to standout end Mario Williams (28 tackles, 8.5 sacks), who's still been a force despite constantly drawing double teams.

The Texans have been solid against the run in spite of a crippling season-ending injury to Pro Bowl middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans in mid-October, rating 10th overall in that category (101.4 ypg) and limiting Tennessee to a meager 24 rushing yards in a shutout win two weeks back. Houston does sport the NFL's 2009 Defensive Rookie of the Year in strongside starter Brian Cushing (53 tackles), while strong safety and leading stopper Bernard Pollard (90 tackles, 1 sack) adds a hard-hitting presence from his position.

• WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
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Houston's obvious strong suit comes from this side of the ball, as an offense that's seventh in the NFL in both total yards (373.0 ypg) and rushing (130.5 ypg) contains a pair of difference-makers in running back Arian Foster (1230 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 15 total TD) and wide receiver Andre Johnson (71 receptions, 1018 yards, 5 TD). Foster comes in as the league's leading ground- gainer and is averaging a robust 5.0 yards per attempt in a terrific sophomore year, while his 15 touchdowns are already a franchise best for a single season. A lingering ankle injury has yet to slow down Johnson, as evidenced by the 149 receiving yards on six catches he put up against the Eagles in Week 13, and the physically-imposing wideout serves as the clear-cut go-to guy for quarterback Matt Schaub (3089 passing yards, 17 TD, 8 INT).

The Texans have had some trouble defining a steady secondary option in the passing game, with Foster ranking second on the team in catches and receiving yards (479), but this week's anticipated return of sure-handed tight end Owen Daniels (16 receptions) from a five-game absence due to a hamstring strain could provide a safe outlet for the accurate Schaub, who's completing passes at a 64 percent rate and put up 337 yards and two scores in the Philadelphia loss.

Foster could find the yards a little tougher to come in this week's test against a nasty Baltimore defense that stands sixth in the NFL versus the run (97.8 ypg) and yielded a scant 54 rushing yards to the Steelers last Sunday. As always, the charge has been headed up by iconic inside linebacker Ray Lewis (108 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT), who's on his way towards another Pro Bowl season that's been aided by the stout presence up front from mammoth interior lineman Haloti Ngata (54 tackles, 5.5 sacks).

Those two help form an excellent front seven that fields another outstanding playmaker in outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (55 tackles, 9 sacks), the team's best pass rusher who was a one-man wrecking crew against Pittsburgh, compiling 1 1/2 sacks and five quarterback pressures in a stellar individual effort. One more star exists in the secondary, where six-time All-Pro free safety Ed Reed (18 tackles, 4 INT, 9 PD) patrols a backfield that's helped the Ravens rank sixth overall in pass efficiency defense. Baltimore's stop unit has been playing its best ball over the season's second half, having held four of its last five opponents to 13 or fewer points.

• PREGAME NOTES
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The 8-4 Ravens have a comfortable two-game lead for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC, but head coach John Harbaugh isn’t pleased with the progress of the offense, particularly the play of QB Joe Flacco. Making matters worse, star tight end Todd Heap likely won’t be able to play because of a severe hamstring pull. Meanwhile, the Texans have dumped five of their last six games. Betrayed by their struggling defense, they’ve lost second-half leads in their last four defeats to San Diego, Jacksonville, the New York Jets and Philadelphia.

Seeking clarity, we consulted with our powerful database, only to find out both outfits own some strong numbers for this Prime-Time scuffle. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in December off a SU favorite loss, 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF appearances and coach Harbaugh has gone 5-1 ATS in the last four games of the regular season versus non-division opponents. But Houston coach Kubiak happens to be 8-2 ATS home, including 5-0 ATS off a loss during the final four games of season. The Texans are also 8-1 ATS as dogs off an NFC battle.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - Baltimore by 3; O/U 44
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Baltimore -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Baltimore -2.56
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 22.6, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--BALTIMORE is 20-6 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 18.3, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--BALTIMORE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 32.1, OPPONENT 11.9 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BALTIMORE is 18-3 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 14.2, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--BALTIMORE is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 15.5, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 2*)

--BALTIMORE is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 13.6, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 2*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 15.5, OPPONENT 8.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--BALTIMORE is 10-23 against the 1rst half line (-15.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 9.1, OPPONENT 9.8 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--HOUSTON is 16-2 OVER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was HOUSTON 12.1, OPPONENT 12.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--BALTIMORE is 32-14 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992.
The average score was BALTIMORE 11.4, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 3*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (BALTIMORE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.3, Opponent 15.8 (Total first half points scored = 28.1)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-17).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (60-37).

--PLAY ON - Road teams (BALTIMORE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.9
The average score in these games was: Team 21.8, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (48.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (41-25).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (90-78).
___________________________________

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__________________________________________________ ___

*** NY GIANTS (8 - 4) vs. MINNESOTA (5 - 7) ***
Kickoff: Monday, 7:20 p.m. EDT Line: NY -4, O/U 43.5
Site: Ford Field Detroit, Michigan
-----------------------------------------------------------
The two straight victories the Minnesota Vikings have delivered following a change in leadership have indeed been impressive, albeit far less so than Brett Favre's incredible run of 297 consecutive starts. The Vikings are hoping both streaks can continue this week, when the revitalized team tangles with the NFC East co-leading New York Giants from Ford Field. Though still a longshot for a return postseason trip, Minnesota is 2-0 since replacing the unpopular Brad Childress with Leslie Frazier as head coach following a forgettable 34-3 home loss to rival Green Bay on Nov. 21. It's the first time the disappointing Vikings have put together back-to-back victories this season, and the defending NFC North champions seem to have displayed both a renewed energy and camaraderie with the necessary switch.

The most one-sided of the Vikings' five 2010 wins came this past Sunday, a 38-14 shellacking of downtrodden Buffalo that marked the club's highest scoring output of the year. That eruption of points was even more noteworthy due to the fact that Favre spent the majority of the game on the sidelines after the legendary quarterback was forced to exit with a shoulder injury on the opening series after taking a hard blind-side hit from Bills' linebacker Arthur Moats. An MRI taken last Monday revealed a sprained SC joint in Favre's throwing shoulder, and he sat out this week's early practice sessions while experiencing considerable discomfort and a limited range of motion. All those factors have raised the possibility that the three-time league MVP may not be under center on for the first time since Sept. 27th, 1992, Favre's second professional season and first as a member of the Green Bay Packers.

If the 41-year old, whose status likely won't be determined until game time, is unable to go, the Vikings will turn the offense over to one-time starter Tarvaris Jackson. The athletic former Childress protégé produced mixed results after taking over in the Buffalo game, throwing three interceptions but connecting on a pair of touchdown passes to wide receiver Sidney Rice while completing 15 of his 23 attempts. Favre isn't the only valued member of the Minnesota offense who's questionable to play, as dynamic wideout Percy Harvin dealt with a recurrence of migraine headaches that also kept him out of last Sunday's triumph during the week and is considered a game-time decision as well.

The Giants enter this clash with some injury issues of their own, though they've received mostly positive news regarding their ailing players in recent days. Wide receivers Steve Smith (pectoral tear) and Hakeem Nicks (leg), who have missed the team's last four and two outings, respectively, returned to practice this week and appear on track to suit up on, while offensive tackle David Diehl is also expected to return from a four-game absence caused by a partially torn hamstring.

New York was able to withstand its depleted receiving corps by utilizing a run-based approach in its Week 13 matchup with Washington, and wound up steam- rolling the disinterested Redskins by a 31-7 score behind a combined 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns from the backfield tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. The win was the second in a row for the Giants and kept Big Blue tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East standings. New York will host the Eagles in a critical divisional showdown next week.

• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
Minnesota has a 13-8 advantage in its all-time regular-season series with the Giants and has defeated New York at the Metrodome in each of the past two years. The Vikings walloped the Giants by a 44-7 count in the 2009 regular- season finale and came through with a 20-19 decision during Week 17 of the previous campaign, though Big Blue rested many of its key starters for all or part of that game in preparation for the playoffs. That result snapped a three-game winning streak for New York in Minnesota, with the Giants posting victories there in 2002, 2003 and 2004. The Vikings subsequently won at Giants Stadium in 2005 and 2007.

The Giants own a 2-1 edge over Minnesota in the postseason, including a 41-0 home blowout of the Vikings in the 2000 NFC Championship. New York also won an NFC First-Round playoff tilt at home versus Minnesota in 1993, and lost an opening-round bout with the Vikes at Giants Stadium in 1997. Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 2-5 against the Vikings during his career, registering a 1-4 record since coming to New York in 2004 and a 1-1 mark during his prior stop in Jacksonville. Frazier will be taking on both the Giants and Coughlin for the first time since his recent promotion.

• WHEN THE GIANTS HAVE THE BALL
---------------------------------------------
New York's offense can be a very difficult one to keep in check when all its parts are in place and operating in sync, as evidenced by the team's No. 5 overall ranking in both total yards (384.6 ypg) and scoring (25.7 ppg). Besides the injuries, the Giants' biggest problem as often been a tendency to stop themselves, having committed a league-worst 31 turnovers that includes 17 interceptions thrown by quarterback Eli Manning (2982 passing yards, 23 TD, 17 INT). That hasn't been as much as issue the past two weeks due to the heavy emphasis on a ground attack that's churning out an average of 142.9 yards per game, with both Bradshaw (1013 rushing yards, 7 TD, 33 receptions) and the powerful Jacobs (577 rushing yards, 7 TD) having been very effective in a timeshare.

The two backs have benefited by the work up front from a line that hasn't allowed a sack in a club-record five straight contests despite having been without Diehl and Pro Bowl center Shaun O'Hara for the majority of that period. The impending return of the physical Nicks (62 receptions, 800 yards, 9 TD) and the savvy Smith (47 receptions, 3 TD) should greatly bolster a receiving group that's relied heavily on inconsistent wideout Mario Manningham (43 receptions, 5 TD) and tight end Kevin Boss (26 receptions, 3 TD) as of late.

Frazier's promotion seems to have had the most impact on the elevated defensive coordinator's charges, as the Vikings have been a shutdown operation on that side of the ball in his two games in charge. After holding Washington to a paltry 216 total yards and generating four sacks in a Week 12 win, Minnesota yielded a mere 239 yards and had a season-best five takeaways against the Bills. The charge has been led by end Jared Allen (46 tackles, 8.5 sacks), with the premier pass rusher on a five-week tear in which he's amassed 7 1/2 sacks and forced a fumble, and the run defense has been superb as well during that stretch.

The Vikings are permitting just 92.0 rushing yards per game (4th overall) and 3.6 yards per attempt, mostly due to the performance of a stout interior core that features two Pro Bowl tackles in Kevin Williams (25 tackles, 1 sack) and Pat Williams (23 tackles) and a quality middle linebacker in E.J. Henderson (80 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT). Minnesota has been somewhat suspect in the secondary, however, and may not have second-leading sacker Ray Edwards (24 tackles, 5.5 sacks) available for a second straight week due to a high ankle sprain, so opportunities may exist for Manning and his pass- catchers.

• WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
-----------------------------------------------
Regardless of whether Favre (2446 passing yards, 10 TD, 18 INT) drags his ailing and aging body out for another go-around or if it's Jackson (223 passing yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) calling the shots, expect the Vikings to give New York a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson (1123 rushing yards, 33 receptions, 12 total TD) come Sunday. The NFC's leading rusher abused Buffalo for 107 yards and three touchdowns on only 16 carries last week despite dealing with a sprained ankle, and with rookie understudy Toby Gerhart (216 rushing yards, 16 receptions) hobbled by a gimpy hamstring, expect Peterson to see an increase from his Week 13 workload.

Harvin's (51 receptions, 5 total TD) possible absence may be offset by the return to form from Rice (9 receptions, 2 TD), a 1,300-yard receiver in 2009 who compiled 105 yards and two scores on five catches in just his third game back from offseason hip surgery. He's the lone healthy standout of an otherwise pedestrian allotment of passing-game targets, though tight end and ex-Giant Visanthe Shiancoe (35 receptions, 2 TD) is a solid safety valve underneath. Like its opponent this week, Minnesota has been plagued by miscues throughout the season, owning a troubling minus-11 turnover ratio that's tied for worst in the NFL. The quarterbacks have been the primary culprits for that poor margin, with Favre and Jackson having combined for 21 interceptions.

Though the Giants stand seventh in the league in run defense (98.0 ypg), they were gashed for 207 rushing yards in a narrow win over Jacksonville two weeks back, so it's imperative that players such as linebackers Michael Boley (67 tackles, 1 sack) and Jonathan Goff (53 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and tackle Barry Cofield (43 tackles, 3 sacks) win their battles and tackle well to prevent the dangerous Peterson from going wild on Sunday. New York's goal will be to put the Vikings into obvious throwing situations in order to unleash a slew of strong pass rushers that have teamed up for 36 sacks, tied for the third-most in the NFL.

Ends Osi Umenyiora (38 tackles, 9 sacks) and Justin Tuck (59 tackles, 8.5 sacks) are tremendous disrupters who have forced an eye-opening 14 fumbles between them, while 2010 first-round pick Jason Pierre-Paul (22 tackles, 4 sacks) has racked up a pair of two-sack efforts over the past couple of weeks. The Giants' knack for creating pressure is a big reason why they've surrendered the second-least passing yards this season (192.8 ypg), though the steady play of cornerbacks Terrell Thomas (70 tackles, 5 INT, 17 PD) and Corey Webster (42 tackles, 3 INT, 8 PD) has helped as well.

• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
We know that the 5-7 Vikings are not in the playoff hunt, but you can bet that the Giants would like to squash any of that talk. Minnesota has won the last four meetings in the series and handed the Giants season-ending losses each of the last two regular seasons, including a 44-7 embarrassment last year that denied the G-Men a winning campaign. Despite the recent run, don’t forget that the Purple People Eaters are 0-6 SU and ATS in this matchup when entering off back-to-back straight up wins.

It would also be wise to remember that the Vikings are 0-5 ATS before facing the Bears when taking on a foe off a straight up victory, and that head coach Tom Coughlin’s road warriors are 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS away off a straight up win versus a non-divisional opponent off a non-division confrontation. While it appears that the Vikings are breathing fresh air under Frazier, a word of caution: both of Minnesota’s wins under his lead have been against teams (Washington, Buffalo) that are 7-17 SU this season.

*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York by 4.5; O/U 45
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New York -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -3.69
_____________________________________________

• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.3, OPPONENT 26.8 - (Rating = 2*)

--MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 14.5, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 2*)

--NY GIANTS are 51-23 ATS (+25.5 Units) after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 21.3, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 4*)

--NY GIANTS are 29-10 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 22.1, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 32-11 OVER (+19.7 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 23.3, OPPONENT 28.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--MINNESOTA is 42-21 OVER (+18.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 21.6, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 16-31 against the 1rst half line (-17.0 Units) in road games after a win by 10 or more points since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 11.0, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--NY GIANTS are 44-24 against the 1rst half line (+17.9 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 11.1, OPPONENT 10.2 - (Rating = 3*)

• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MINNESOTA is 34-13 OVER (+19.5 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
The average score was MINNESOTA 13.8, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 3*)

--NY GIANTS are 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 14.6, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 5*)

• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites (NY GIANTS) - off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night.
(50-18 since 1983.) (73.5%, +30.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (57-12)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.6
The average score in these games was: Team 27, Opponent 16.5 (Average point differential = +10.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 33 (50% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (27-8).

--PLAY OVER - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (MINNESOTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
(50-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.5%, +30.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.4, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 25.9)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (72-45).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (116-83).