The Bum's Week # 14 Best Bets + AFC GOY + News and Notes !

[StarDust Bum]

Favre, Harvin could both miss Sunday's game


NEW YORK GIANTS (8-4)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-7)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -3, Total: 43

Two injury-riddled teams meet Sunday at the Metrodome in search of a third straight win. The Giants have some good news with their banged-up receiving corps, as Steve Smith (pectoral) is expected to return to the starting lineup and Hakeem Nicks (leg) will also try to play Sunday, albeit on a limited basis. The Vikings injury situation is much more bleak. QB Brett Favre (shouler/elbow) will be a game-time decision and top WR Percy Harvin (migraines) is doubtful to play this week.

Smith has missed the past four games and will give a huge boost to Eli Manning and the Giants’ passing game. Smith has at least four catches in each of his eight games this year, gaining 517 yards in his half-season of play. Nicks, who has missed the past two games, should be limited to playing roughly half of his usual workload. The big-play receiver has 62 catches for 800 yards and nine touchdowns in 10 games this year. Manning, whose 17 interceptions are surpassed only by Favre’s 18, saw his seven-game, multi-touchdown streak end last week in the 31-7 blowout win over Washington. Manning has only thrown 49 passes in the past two weeks as the Giants continue to improve their rushing attack with 332 yards in two games. New York rushed for 197 yards on 36 carries against the Redskins and rank sixth in the NFL with 143 rushing YPG. However, the Vikings rank fourth in the league in run defense at 92 YPG, so the Giants may try to throw the ball more, especially with their top two receivers back on the field.

For Minnesota, Favre practiced on a limited basis with the first team Friday, but Tarvaris Jackson received the majority of quarterback reps this week. Favre only has 10 touchdowns this season and his 69.6 quarterback rating is third-worst among qualified players, ahead of only Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen. Jackson was also plagued by interceptions last week, throwing three in just 22 pass attempts. But Jackson did complete 15 of those attempts for 187 yards and two touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) and WR Sidney Rice (hip) will both start Sunday and will get the majority of touches in this offense. Peterson scored three times and rushed for 107 of the team’s 210 yards last week against Buffalo, while Rice had five catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills.

The Giants are 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in their last six trips to Minnesota, but the FoxSheets show a highly-rated reason to play against New York, and side with home underdog Minnesota on Sunday.

Play Against - Road favorites (NY GIANTS) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game.(40-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Over.

NY GIANTS are 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY GIANTS 26.9, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cassel will miss Sunday's game at San Diego


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-4)
at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -7, Total: 46.5

As the Chiefs move closer to their first AFC West title in seven years, they will first be tasked with taking down San Diego, the reigning division champs for the last four seasons. As K.C. attempts to take a three-game lead over the Chargers, it will not have the services of Matt Cassel, its starting quarterback. Cassel had an emergency appendectomy this week and is doubtful to play Sunday in San Diego. Brodie Croyle is expected to start in his place. The Chargers continue to be riddled by the injury bug. TE Antonio Gates (foot), WR Vincent Jackson (calf) and RB Darren Sproles (concussion) are all questionable, while WR Legedu Naanee (hamstring) is doubtful and WR Patrick Crayton (wrist) is out for Sunday.

Although Cassel only threw for 68 yards in Kansas City’s Week 1 win over San Diego, he has had a tremendous year with 23 TD and just four interceptions. Croyle is 0-9 in his career as a starter and has not played this season. For his 16-game career, he has completed 173-of-300 passes (58%) for 1,631 yards, 8 TD and 8 INT. Croyle should rely heavily on the team’s top WR Dwayne Bowe, who was completely shut down by Denver CB Champ Bailey last week, as Bowe had zero catches. Bailey’s performance was even more impressive considering Bowe entered the game with 465 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in his previous three contests. With Croyle under center, the Chiefs will continue to pound the ball with their league-best rushing attack averaging 175 rushing YPG. Jamaal Charles is tied for third in the NFL with 1,137 rushing yards after racking up 289 yards in his past two games. Charles also rushed for 92 yards on just 11 carries (8.4 YPC) in the Week 1 win over San Diego. He might be hard-pressed to gain another 100 yards against the Chargers who lead the NFL in total defense (282 YPG) and rank fifth against the run (95 YPG).

Despite injuries to nearly every important offensive player on the team, QB Philip Rivers has remained healthy and effective all year, leading the Chargers to the second-most yards in the NFL (397 total YPG). Rivers has completed 66% of his passes for 3,642 yards, 24 TD and 10 INT this year. His most-targeted receiver has been Gates who has caught 50 of the 66 balls thrown in his direction for 782 yards and 10 TD in 10 games. With all the key injuries in the passing game, San Diego needs to establish some kind of running game. The Chargers only had eight carries for 21 yards in last week’s loss to Oakland and rookie RB Ryan Mathews did not receive a single touch. Mathews, who hasn’t played since Week 9, is expected to get a good amount of opportunities this week against a Chiefs run defense ranked 12th in the NFL (102 YPG).

Even with the Week 1 loss, the Chargers are 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) in the past six meetings with the Chiefs. Since 2005, San Diego is an impressive 17-3 SU in its final four games of the regular season. Considering the Chargers are playing a winless quarterback at home and desperate for a win, the FoxSheets give a four-star reason to expect San Diego to win and cover on Sunday.

Norv Turner is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season as the coach of SAN DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 30.0, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets also like the Over.

Play Over - Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. (106-51 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.5%, +49.9 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/06/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/05/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1400 Detail
12/02/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 18-16-0 52.94% +200

Sunday, December 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +7.5 500
Carolina - Under 41.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +9 500
Pittsburgh - Over 39.5 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -6.5 500
Detroit - Over 46.5 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +3.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 41.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Washington +1 500
Washington - Under 41 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +1 500
Buffalo - Under 39.5 500

St. Louis - 4:05 PM ET St. Louis +9.5 500
New Orleans - Over 47 500

Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +5 500
San Francisco - Over 41.5 500

New England - 4:15 PM ET Chicago +2 500
Chicago - Under 38 500

Miami - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Jets -5 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 38.5 500

Denver - 4:15 PM ET Denver -4 500
Arizona - Over 43.5 500

Kansas City - 4:15 PM ET Kansas City +9.5 500 ( AFC GOY )
San Diego - Under 45.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:20 PM ET Dallas +3.5 500
Dallas - Under 51 500

I think the public has over reacted to the fact that KC Cassel isn't going to start......But just last week the Raiders ran the ball on these chargers for nearly 250 yards.....just what will the dynamic dual of running backs from KC will do...Croyle won't have to pass the ball all that much in my opinon...I think coach Romeo won't put in a position to cough up the ball on certain downs...San Diego may win this game but it surely won't be by 10 or more....Hell i was thrilled getting 7 pts when the lined opened up and Cassel was still healthy....Another fact........teams that play the Oakland Raiders this year....the next game....they have gone 0 -13 ATS.........Good Luck !

[10DimeBry]

I like the GOY call SDB. I didnt pull the trigger only cause the line IMO seemed too high. I cant believe KC is getting 9.5 I'm gonna tag along and play KC

GL

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 14
December 11, 2010

Week 13 Recap
The ‘over’ went 9-7 last week, boosting the season total to 107-83-2 (56%). And Thursday’s game between the Colts and Titans went ‘over’ the number, so the sportsbooks are in the hole once again. With just four weeks of action left, the main theme for this week and probably the rest of the season will be weather. Snow, rain and gusty conditions are on tap and we’re finally starting to see totals listed under 40 or less. Stay abreast with the WEATHER UPDATES here.

System Play

Over Saints-Rams - Check out Page 21 of the Football Forecast.

It’s already 1-0 this season and we have three opportunities next week as well.

Second Go ‘Round

Three divisional games take place this week where the first meeting sailed ‘over’ the number. Will it be a déjà vu weekend or should we go the other way and play ‘under’ the number?

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Steelers held off the Bengals 27-21 on a MNF affair in early October. Horrible weather expected here and the number should continue to dip. Four of the last five have gone ‘over’ the number but none of those contests were played in December.

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Green Bay at Detroit: The Packers held off the Lions 28-24 in Week 4 at home and now they’ll play at Ford Field, which is known to have high scoring affairs (6-0 to the ‘over’). The Lions will go with Drew Stanton at QB again and that’s always an iffy situation. Plus, Green Bay’s defense is getting a lot better as the season goes, surrendering 9.2 points per game in the last five.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: Bad weather expected in New Jersey with lots of rain. Despite the forecast, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the ‘over’ has cashed in three straight in this series, including the Jets 31-23 road win over the Dolphins on Sept. 26. New York only mustered up three points in a loss to New England last Monday, but they averaged 26.3 PPG in the previous four. Miami’s offense has been inconsistent all season and it was evident in last week’s home loss to Cleveland (10-13).

Over-Easy

Have gamblers “Missed the Boat” on a pair of ‘over’ teams? The Patriots and Cowboys have both watched 10 of their 12 games go ‘over’ the number this season. Does the tide turn this Sunday?

New England at Chicago: This could be the week that the Pats see the ‘under’ come rolling in and a handful of sharp bettors have a nice middle opportunity. The number opened offshore at 44 and has dipped as low as 37 ½ at some outfits. The weather is expected to be rough, possible snow showers and gusty winds. Even though Chicago has watched its last two games go ‘over’ the total, the ‘under’ started the season with an 8-2 run. The Bears are allowing 16 PPG at Soldier Field this season but they’ll be facing a New England attack that posted 39, 31, 45 and 45 points the last four weeks.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia: This is the highest total (51) on the board and it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. The Eagles (23.4 PPG) and Cowboys (28 PPG) have both been lit up defensively, plus they have the playmakers on offense to score quickly. The Cowboys have scored 33, 35, 27 and 38 points since the coaching change in “Big D.” And Philadelphia has put up 26 points or more in five of six on the road, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 for the Birds. Last season, the two regular season meetings saw the total 1-1.

Under the Lights

Baltimore and Houston conclude the Week 14 festivities on Monday from Reliant Stadium. This particular matchup has a total hovering between 45 and 46 points, but that number will likely go up with public money. The Ravens’ offense (21.7 PPG) has the talent to put up points, yet that hasn’t been the case lately. The unit has scored a combined 30 points the last two weeks albeit against quality defensive stoppers in the Bucs and Steelers. This Monday, QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens face the Texans, who are allowing 26.8 PPG. Every opponent except for one has managed to put up at least 24 points on Houston this season and the lone team to not accomplish the feat was Tennessee, who had a third-string QB behind the controls. While the Texans defense is atrocious, the offense quickly makes you forget about it. Houston is averaging 24 PPG and the attack will be tested against a Baltimore defense (15.9 PPG) that has ripped up weaker teams on the road. Except for losses to the Patriots (23) and Falcons (26), the Ravens have given up 15 or less in the other four road affairs, which has produced a 4-2 ‘under’ record.

Fearless Predictions

Alright folks…we’re back! The Best Bets swept the board last week, bringing us to 8-7 (+30) on the season. And the three-team teaser didn’t even need the points. That number stands at 4-3 (+100), which puts us into the black on the season (+130). Four weeks before the playoffs and we’re looking to stay hot. Let’s do this!

Best Over: Rams-Saints 47

Best Under: Browns-Bills 39.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Rams-Saints 38
Under Browns-Bills 48.5
Under Bengals-Steelers 49.5

[StarDust Bum]

Week 14 Division Matchups
December 9, 2010


As the regular season winds down over the next four weeks, the frequency of division matchups increases with six contests on Sunday afternoon. The Jets look to bounce back from Monday's embarrassing loss to the Patriots as the Dolphins invade the new Meadowlands, while the Packers and Falcons try to avoid getting tripped up on the road. We'll start at Heinz Field as Pittsburgh attempts for its third 10-win season in four years under Mike Tomlin.

Bengals at Steelers (-8 ½, 39 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh rallied late on Sunday night to knock off Baltimore in a huge divisional win to grab a one-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. The Steelers look to capitalize off that victory as they dysfunctional Bengals head to western Pennsylvania. Cincinnati threw away another game in the fourth quarter with a 34-30 loss to New Orleans.

The Steelers begin a three-game homestand at Heinz Field, as Pittsburgh is 3-2 SU/ATS at home with losses to Baltimore and New England. Pittsburgh owns a 2-5 ATS mark since the start of 2009 as a favorite of eight points or more, but is 4-2 ATS as home 'chalk' of seven points or more since 2007. The Steelers look for the season sweep over the Bengals after a 27-21 Monday night victory at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 9 as five-point favorites.

The Bengals are riding a nine-game losing streak since a 2-1 start, while going 'over' the total six times in this cold stretch. Cincinnati has dropped six games by seven points or less, including three on the road. The Bengals have managed covers as 6 ½-point 'dogs to the Saints and Colts, but Marvin Lewis' squad is just 3-5 ATS when receiving points this season.

Packers (-6 ½, 46 ½) at Lions - 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay is right in the middle of a loaded NFC playoff race at 8-4, sitting within two games of Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, and Philadelphia. Unfortunately, one of these teams will not qualify for the postseason as the NFC West will take up one of the spots. The Packers go for their sixth win in seven tries as they make trip to Ford Field to battle the 2-10 Lions.

Detroit picked up a cover as five-point home underdogs in a 24-20 loss to Chicago last Sunday, improving the Lions to 8-4 ATS. The Lions have lost five straight games, but are in involved in wild games with 'overs' in eight of the last nine contests. Winning at home in this series has been a tough task as the Lions have lost each of the previous four meetings with the Packers at Ford Field since 2006.

Despite sitting one game behind Chicago in the NFC North, Green Bay's four losses have come by three points each, including three defeats on the final play of the game. The offense has been dynamic even though feature running back Ryan Grant was placed on IR after the opening week victory at Philadelphia. The Packers have tallied 31 points or more in three of the last four weeks, as they have covered five of the last six games. Something will have to give in the totals department as Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 to the 'under' on the road, while Detroit is 6-0 to the 'over' at home.

Falcons (-7 ½, 42) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST

The top team in the NFC looks to stay hot, facing the worst team in the league as Atlanta heads to Carolina. The Falcons rallied for a 28-24 victory at Tampa Bay last week to pick up the crucial tiebreaker and third division victory. The Panthers squandered an early 14-0 lead in a 31-14 at Seattle, the eighth time Carolina has been held to 14 points or less.

Atlanta owns the inside track for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, which would be the first occurrence in franchise history. Both of Atlanta's losses this season have come on the road at Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, while covering three of four games as away favorites. The Falcons have been a strong 'over' play of late, cashing in six of their previous seven contests. Matt Ryan is winless in two trips to Charlotte, with the Falcons losing the two games by a combined score of 52-28.

The Panthers can't get out of their own way as they have compiled a 1-11 record, while covering just three times. Carolina's offense ranks at the bottom of the league with 12 ppg, as the Panthers have been held to single-digits four times at home. John Fox's team has one realistic shot at a win the rest of the season, hosting the 3-9 Cardinals next week.

Seahawks at 49ers (-5 ½, 41 ½) - 4:05 PM EST

The NFC West race will likely come down to the end, but that doesn't make it an exciting finish. St. Louis and Seattle enter Sunday's action at 6-6, while San Francisco is still technically hanging around at 4-8 with games left against the co-division leaders. The Niners will be looking to avenge an opening week loss at Qwest Field, while the Seahawks attempt to win back-to-back games for the second time this season.

San Francisco has flipped out one Smith (Troy) for another (Alex) at quarterback as the top pick of the 2005 draft is back under center for the Niners. Alex Smith hasn't started since a Week 7 overtime loss at Carolina, while going 1-6 as a starter this season. The Niners are again without running back Frank Gore, as San Francisco is 0-4 ATS as a favorite at Candlestick Park.

Seattle rallied for a 17-point victory over Carolina last Sunday to climb back to .500, but the road doesn't get easier the next three weeks with games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. The best play for the Seahawks recently has been the 'over,' hitting in five straight games. The only concern for Seattle this week is 0-9 SU/ATS mark the Seahawks have compiled since 2008 on the road off a win.

Dolphins at Jets (-5 ½, 40) - 4:15 PM EST

New York hopes to put Monday's massacre at New England behind them as the Jets return home to host the Dolphins. The 42-point loss by the Jets was their worst since a 45-3 setback to the Dolphins in 1986, as Rex Ryan's club tries to pull off a season sweep of Miami. The 'Fins have been the ultimate road/home dichotomy with a 5-1 record on the highway, compared to a 1-5 mark at Sun Life Stadium.

The Jets haven't lost back-to-back games all season, but are just 2-4 ATS the last six games. Three of their four wins since the bye week have come in the final minute of regulation or in overtime, all against teams that sit at .500 or below. New York held off Miami, 31-23 as a one-point road favorite in Week 3, as Mark Sanchez tossed three touchdown passes.

The Dolphins are as inconsistent as anybody by going 4-0 SU/ATS following a loss since a Week 4 Monday night defeat to the Patriots. Miami's road success is very odd for a team sitting at 6-6, but Tony Sparano is 13-4 ATS as an away underdog since arriving with the Dolphins in 2008. The Dolphins are expected to get wide receiver Brandon Marshall back in the lineup on Sunday after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.

Chiefs at Chargers (-7, 46 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

It's a must-win spot for San Diego after the Bolts were run out at home by the Raiders last Sunday, 28-13 as 12 ½-point favorites. The Chargers look to improve on a 1-3 record inside the AFC West as the potentially short-handed Chiefs head to Southern California. Kansas City sits atop the division at 8-4, but the Chiefs try to avoid a third road divisional defeat.

Matt Cassel is listed as questionable for this Sunday after getting an appendectomy on Wednesday, possibly meaning that either Tyler Palko or Brodie Croyle will get the start at quarterback for the Chiefs. The one thing Kansas City can exploit is a San Diego rush defense that allowed 251 yards to Oakland, as the Chiefs are averaging a league-best 175 yards a game. The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS the last six weeks after failing to cover in a 10-6 victory over the Broncos as nine-point 'chalk.'

The Chargers fell short in a 21-14 loss at Arrowhead Stadium in the Monday night opener, even though San Diego outgained Kansas City by nearly 200 yards. San Diego is still a strong December team despite the Oakland loss, going 18-1 SU overall and 6-3-1 ATS at home since 2006. The Chargers have not been swept by the Chiefs since 2003, back when Drew Brees was the starting quarterback for San Diego.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
December 11, 2010


Patriots at Bears - The Bears are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since December 26, 1999 as a dog the week after a straight up win in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bears are 0-9 OU (-5.3 ppg) since November 16, 1997 as a home dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Bears are 7-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since October 22, 1995 the week before playing on Monday Night on the road.

Browns at Bills - The Browns are 9-0-1 ATS (5.2 ppg) since January 1, 2006 when they punted 8+ times last game. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since September 08, 1991 within 3 of pick on the road the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (4.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 within 3 of pick on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Bills are 11-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since October 09, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-17.1 ppg) since November 25, 2001 versus any team with fewer wins. after a straight up win on the road. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-13.6 ppg) since November 12, 2006 the week after a game in which they benefited from at least four turnovers.

Broncos at Cardinals - The Broncos are 0-9 ATS (-19.3 ppg) since November 22, 2001 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since October 31, 2004 versus any team with the same record, after playing on the road. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-19.1 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since October 17, 1993 within 3 of pick when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. The Broncos are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since October 02, 2005 when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 11, 2007 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.

Chiefs at Chargers - The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since December 17, 2000 as a dog vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since September 24, 1989 at home after a home game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Chiefs are 9-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since September 24, 2000 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home. The Chargers are 0-7 OU (-9.4 ppg) since October 29, 1989 vs a team they lost to as a favorite in their first match-up.

Eagles at Cowboys - The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Cowboys are 9-0 OU (12.3 ppg) since November 22, 1990 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-8.4 ppg) since October 29, 2000 at home the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (15.9 ppg) since September 09, 1991 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

Seahawks at 49ers - The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since November 23, 2003 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a straight up win at home. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 21, 2008 at home between away games. The Seahawks are 7-0 OU (9.2 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a road dog after a win in which they were losing at the half. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since October 07, 2007 at home the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog.

Raiders at Jaguars - The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 when they led by 14+ at half last game and covered by at least a TD. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a home favorite after playing as a dog. The Raiders are 7-0 OU (12.0 ppg) since September 15, 2002 on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Jaguars are 8-0 OU (8.9 ppg) since November 05, 2006 the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 8-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since December 24, 2006 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.

Dolphins at Jets - The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since October 16, 2005 on the road the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since December 07, 2003 vs a team they beat as a dog in their first match-up. The Jets are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent.

Packers at Lions - The Packers are 7-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Lions are 6-0-1 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 02, 2001 when they got swept last week at home as a dog. The Lions are 0-7 OU (-6.4 ppg) since October 25, 1998 as a home dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.

Falcons at Panthers - The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-24.8 ppg) since September 01, 1996 as a road favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Panthers are 0-8 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since December 2006, when they led at half last game and failed to cover. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 07, 2001 after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half. The Falcons are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since November 21, 2004 on the road off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Falcons are 0-6 OU (-14.5 ppg) since November 06, 2005 on the road when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Panthers are 0-7-1 OU (-9.5 ppg) since November 19, 2006 at home when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

Buccaneers at Redskins - The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Redskins are 0-9 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since December 08, 2002 as a home favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Redskins are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as a home favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Redskins are 6-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since December 05, 2004 as a favorite versus any team with more wins. The Redskins are 0-8 OU (-10.6 ppg) since December 30, 2007 as a home favorite.

Rams at Saints - The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since September 23, 2007 as a dog the week after in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 0-8 ATS (-13.9 ppg) since September 23, 2001 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Saints are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a home favorite the week after a win in which their dpa was positive. The Saints are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since October 29, 1989 as a 7+ favorite the week after scoring 34+ points. The Saints are 7-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since September 11, 1994 as a home 7+ favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.

Bengals at Steelers - The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since November 09, 2003 as a home 7+ favorite when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite the week after a win in which their dps was negative. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-9.8 ppg) since October 08, 1995 on the road the week after in which they benefited from 100+ yards of penalties. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since October 29, 2001 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing at home.

Giants at Vikings - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since December 22, 2002 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 25, 1990 within 3 of pick at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Vikings are 0-11 ATS (-13.7 ppg) since November 24, 1991 when they won by 14+ last game and had less than two sacks. The Vikings are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since October 28, 2001 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 9-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since October 21, 2007 when they won by 21+ points last week. The Giants are 8-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since November 09, 2008 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Vikings are 0-9 OU (-10.2 ppg) since October 31, 1999 as a favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (6.0 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Vikings are 0-6 OU (-7.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a favorite the week after scoring 34+ points at home.

Ravens at Texans - The Ravens are 9-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since November 10, 1996 after a loss at home in which they were winning at the half. The Ravens are 6-0-2 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 22, 1998 within 3 of pick after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Ravens are 9-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 10, 1996 after a loss at home in which they were winning at the half. The Texans are 9-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since December 18, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after a straight up loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends at the 3/4 Pole
December 12, 2010


With three-quarters of the NFL season complete, most teams have developed certain pointspread and/or "totals" characteristics unique to the current campaign. Following are team-by-team looks at the most pronounced of those trends and angles.

Arizona... It’s gone pear-shaped for the Cardinals, who have dropped their last four, six of their last seven, and 9 of their last 11 vs. the number. Arizona is also 1-6 vs. the spread at home this season. Recent problems with the offense have impacted "totals" trends as well; after "over" in 7 of their first 9 games, the Cards are "under" 2-0-1 in their last three.

Atlanta... Hot, covering last four games. Falcons are also "over" 8-4 this season.

Baltimore... Ravens have flattened out a bit, no covers last two weeks and just 5-7 vs. the spread overall this season. No covers in 4 of 6 as host.

Buffalo... Bills caught a slight updraft after bye week, standing 4-1-1 vs. line over the next six weeks, but might be ready to slide the other way after last week’s loss at Minnesota.

Carolina... One of this year’s real disaster teams, the panthers are just 3-9 vs. the number and have not had much of a home-field advantage in Charlotte, dropping five of six vs. spread as host. Curiously, note "overs" in last four after 6-2 "under" mark in first half of season.

Chicago... Bears are undefeated straight up and 3-1-1 vs. the line since their bye week on Halloween weekend. Chicago also "under" 7-3-2 this season.

Cincinnati... Things went pear-shaped for the Bengals long ago, as they’ve dropped seven of their last nine spread decisions, although they did manage a cover last week vs. Saints.

Cleveland... Note that Brownies had gone "over" in six straight prior to last week at Miami.

Dallas... Things have turned around dramatically for the Cowboys since HC Wade Phillips was dismissed and Jason Garrett promoted, with Dallas 4-0 vs. the pointspread since. The Cowboys are also "over" 4-0 on Garrett’s watch.

Denver... Let’s see how Broncos react after the dismissal of HC Josh McDaniels earlier this week, and if Denver rallies for interim HC Eric Studesville as has Dallas after its coaching change. Prior to Josh’s dismissal, the Broncos had dropped 6 of their last 8 spread decisions, including 4 of their last 5 at home. Denver is also "over 8-4 this season, and that includes "unders" in 2 of last 3.

Detroit... Lions have had mostly positive spread results this season, covering 9 of 12 despite dropping 2 of last 3 vs. number. Detroit also "over" 8-3-1 this season.

Green Bay... Pack surging, with covers in 5 of last 6. Also a slight departure from recent years in predominance of "unders" (8-4 to date, although Pack was "over" last week vs. 49ers).

Houston... Texans enter Monday night game vs. Ravens having covered just one of last five at Reliant Stadium. Note Houston also "over" 8-4 this season.

Indianapolis... It’s been a strange season for the Colts, who dropped their third straight vs. the number when leaving the back door wide open for Tennessee to cover the spread with a meaningless TD on the game’s final play Thursday night. Indy has also dropped its last three spread decisions at home.

Kansas City... Note that the Chiefs enters Sunday’s game at San Diego having gone "over" their last four on the road. Now, who is going to play QB for Kansas City?

Miami... Dolphins have continued formful ways from past two seasons, maintaining status as the top "inside out" team in the league. Miami has won and covered five of first six on the road this season, yet is 1-5 straight up and vs. the number at home.

Minnesota... Much like Dallas after Wade Phillips, the Vikes have rallied following HC Brad Childress’ dismissal, winning and covering two straight for interim (but perhaps soon permanent) HC Leslie Frazier. Remember, that was preceded by five straight losses vs. the number.

New England... Of all of the noteworthy developments this season in Foxborough, we have taken note of the Patriots’ strong "over" trends (now 10-2 after last week’s rout of the Jets).

New Orleans... Saints have not been a terribly reliable spread proposition this season (similar to late in 2009 campaign), standing just 4-7-1 vs. the line.

NY Giants... Giants were wobbling in late November with three straight spread setbacks, yet might have steadied the ship with last week’s easy win over the Skins.

NY Jets...The Jets had a five-game cover streak at one point early in the season, but have since dropped 4 of their last 6 vs. the number. Note surprising 9-3 "overs" this season as well.

Oakland... Raiders have been a bit bipolar this season, and as a result are mostly middling in all spread and "totals" propositions (save perhaps for "over" 4-2 at Coliseum).

Philadelphia... Birds "over" 8-4 this season., including 5-1 away from Linc.

Pittsburgh... Note that Steelers haven’t covered two games in a row since September, or since QB Ben Roethlisberger returned from suspension. Pittsburgh also "under" last three outings.

St. Louis... Rams have emerged as a pointspread force, covering 9 of their last 11 games, including their last four on the road. After extended "under" stretch, Rams had gone "over" three in a row prior to last week’s low-scoring win at Arizona.

San Diego... Bolts’ annual late-season uptick was sidetracked last week vs. Raiders; Norv Turner’s team had won and covered previous four.

San Francisco... 49ers only 3-6 as chalk in this disappointing season.

Seattle... Seahawks have mostly maintained last season’s home road trends, standing 4-2 vs. number at Qwest Field and 2-4 vs. line on road this season. Seattle also "over" 8-3-1 for first-year HC Pete Carroll.

Tampa Bay... Bucs had covered five in a row prior to last week’s loss vs. Falcons. Interestingly, Tampa Bay is 6-0 vs. the line as visitor this season, but only 1-4-1 vs. mark at home.

Tennessee... The Titans were one second away from losing their sixth straight vs. the number before their last-play TD Thursday allowed for a backdoor cover vs. Indy.

Washington... Skins wobbling, losing and failing to cover 4 of last 5. With offense bogging down, Skins also "under" their last three.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
December 11, 2010

Editor's Note: Gamblers looking for a winner can cash big with expert selections on tonight's battle between Philadelphia and Dallas. Click to win!

It’s often been said in sports gambling circles that betting on the final weeks of the NFL regular season is comparable to wagering on the preseason because it’s impossible to predict the unpredictable.

With that being said, what do you make of Sunday’s finale between Philadelphia (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and Dallas (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS) from Cowboys Stadium?

Most sportsbooks sent the Eagles out as three-point road favorites and the number has jumped a half-point at most outfits, and even as high as four at other betting counters.

Andy Reid and the Eagles have been the more consistent team thus far, but current form is nothing to shy away from and Dallas is red hot. Ever since the Cowboys fired head coach Wade Phillips, the team has gone 3-1 and easily could be 4-0 if it didn’t fumble away a win against the Saints (27-30) on Thanksgiving. Gamblers backing interim head coach Jason Garrett and the ‘Boys have watched the club go 4-0 ATS during this span.

What’s even more impressive is that Dallas isn’t playing the sisters of the poor during this run. Along with the Saints (9-3), the Cowboys defeated the Giants (8-4), Lions (2-10) and just last Sunday at the Colts (7-6). Except for Detroit, the other three teams have great chances to make the playoffs.

Is Dallas finally showing us what it should’ve been all season long? Perhaps, but it’s also beneficial when your team wins the turnover battle, which has been the case lately. It also helps when you score and Dallas has averaged 33.3 PPG during its hot streak. Playing against a young Eagles’ defense that has been burned in the red zone could keep this firestorm hot on Sunday. Plus, the Eagles’ defense will be missing defensive back Asante Samuel (knee) for this week’s outing. The shutdown corner leads the team with seven interceptions.

Philadelphia hasn’t been a bad bet on the road this season, going 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS, with losses coming to Chicago (26-31) and Tennessee (19-37). Even though Reid and his troops sit atop the NFC East, this battle could be considered a must-win for the Birds. Hear me out…

Next Sunday, the Eagles meet the Giants on the road. If New York improves to 9-4 with a road win over Minnesota (Game moved to Monday due to Snow) and Philadelphia loses to Dallas, the G-Men will own a one-game division lead. Assuming New York gets revenge against Philadelphia, the lead will go two. And that’s when the division crown goes out the window for the Eagles and Wild Card talk comes into play. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, it has key losses to the Packers and Bears, both teams in the playoff mix. Should be interesting to see how it ends, but this is a big one for Philly tonight.

SNF Trend - LOG

Unlike the ‘chalky’ run on MNF, the primetime tilt on Sunday has watched the underdogs produce a 7-6-1 ATS record through the first 14 games. The home team has gone 8-6 during this span, but three of the last four contests on SNF have watched the visitor leave with a victory. Philadelphia is 2-0 both SU and ATS on SNF this season, while Dallas is 0-2 both SU and ATS.

Over Easy?

This is the highest total (51) on the board and it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. The Eagles (23.4 PPG) and Cowboys (28 PPG) have both been lit up defensively, plus they have the playmakers on offense to score quickly. The Cowboys have scored 33, 35, 27 and 38 points since the coaching change in “Big D.” Also, Philadelphia has put up 26 points or more in five of six on the road, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 for the Birds. Dallas has watched the ‘over’ go 10-2 this season, including a perfect 6-0 ledger at home.

Head-to-Head

This will be the first battle between the two teams this season, with the second encounter happening from Lincoln Financial Field in Week 17. Last year, Dallas pulled off the next-to-impossible 3-0 sweep over the Eagles (20-16, 24-0, 34-14), the last victory coming in the first round of the playoffs. The ‘under’ went 2-1.

Insider Angle

The sample size isn’t huge on this current trend so bettors should tread lightly but playing on Thursday’s has benefited teams the following week. If you don’t include the two matchups that had both teams playing on extra rest, the number stands at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS this season. Does Philadelphia and Houston keep the trend rolling?

Thursday - Nov. 11: Baltimore 20 at Atlanta 26

Following Week:
Ravens 37 Panthers 13
Falcons 34 Rams 17

Thursday – Nov. 18: Chicago 16 at Miami 0

Following Week:
Bears 31 Eagles 26
Dolphins 33 Raiders 17

Thursday – Nov. 25: Thanksgiving Day

Following Week:
Since two of the matchups (Jets-Patriots, Saints-Bengals) involved teams playing on the holiday, it was going to be a wash either way. But if you’re keeping score, the Cowboys (Colts) and Lions (Bears) both covered numbers last Sunday.

Thursday – Dec. 2: Houston 24 at Philadelphia 34

Philadelphia at Dallas – Result Pending…
Baltimore at Houston – Result Pending…

[BillMill71]

Good Luck SDB

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds favor Chargers by TD versus Chiefs


Slow starts are nothing new for the San Diego Chargers.

Something that is new for the Chargers, though, is losing at home in December to the Oakland Raiders as 13 ½-point favorites. That loss last Sunday dropped San Diego to 6-6, while putting in peril its playoff chances.

The Chargers have won the AFC West Division title four consecutive years. But unless San Diego defeats 8-4 Kansas City at home Sunday at 1:15 p.m. PT its division streak is finished. So, too, probably are its postseason hopes.

NFL oddsmakers don’t see it happening. They’ve installed San Diego as seven-point favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 46 ½.

Yes, it’s a must-win spot for San Diego. The Chargers have the statistics to justify being a touchdown favorite ranking first in total defense and No. 2 in total offense. Philip Rivers is having a monster year ranking second in passing yards to Peyton Manning with 3,642 yards, throwing 24 touchdown passes and being third in the league’s quarterback ratings.

Kansas City’s best cornerback, Brandon Flowers, has been hampered by a hamstring injury.

But can the Chargers be trusted after last week’s 28-13 loss, their worst defeat in 58 games? The Raiders ran for 251 yards and had three touchdowns on the ground. Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing averaging 175.2 yards per game, that’s 25 yards more per game than the next closest team, Jacksonville.

Jamaal Charles is the league's third-leading rusher while averaging an NFL-best 6.2 yards per carry. Reliable Thomas Jones is on pace for a sixth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season.

Thanks to the steady play of quarterback Matt Cassel, the Chiefs only have nine turnovers, fewest in the league. Cassel has thrown only one interception since Week 3. He ranks just 18th in passing yards with 2,503, but has a fantastic 23:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Cassel, however, underwent an appendectomy this week and is ‘questionable.’ He would be replaced by Brodie Croyle if he can’t play.

Dwayne Bowe had been the hottest receiver in football until blanked by Denver cornerback Champ Bailey during last Sunday’s 10-6 home win as nine-point favorites. Bowe had 32 receptions and seven touchdowns in his previous three games. Bowe has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight games.

The Chiefs haven’t faced many big-games such as this. Their last division title was in 2003. They hadn’t won more than four games in a season since 2006. The Chiefs’ only win this season versus a team above .500 now is against 7-5 Jacksonville.

The Chiefs, however, have covered six of the past seven times they’ve been a ‘dog.

Until their surprising flat performance against the Raiders, the Chargers had scored 36, 35, 29 and 33 points during their past four games.

Turnovers and poor special teams play have hurt San Diego. The Chargers have fumbled 14 times and Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions.

Dexter McCluster had a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown when the Chiefs upset the Chargers, 21-14, as four-point home ‘dogs in Week 1. That game was played in heavy rain. The Chargers dominated the stats outgained the Chiefs by 92 yards, having an 18-to-nine first down advantage and controlling the ball for 37:22 minutes to Kansas City’s 22:32.

The loss snapped San Diego’s six-game winning streak versus the Chiefs. Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven visits to Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs haven’t won there since 2007.

The ‘over’ has cashed in Kansas City’s past four road matchups. The Chargers are 7-2-1 to the ‘over’ in their last 10 December games.

Not surprisingly the weather should be perfect in San Diego with temperatures in the 60s and zero percent chance of rain.

[Udog]

Kansas City - 4:15 PM ET Kansas City +9.5 500 ( AFC GOY )
San Diego - Under 45.5 500

I think the public has over reacted to the fact that KC Cassel isn't going to start......But just last week the Raiders ran the ball on these chargers for nearly 250 yards.....just what will the dynamic dual of running backs from KC will do...Croyle won't have to pass the ball all that much in my opinon...I think coach Romeo won't put in a position to cough up the ball on certain downs...San Diego may win this game but it surely won't be by 10 or more....Hell i was thrilled getting 7 pts when the lined opened up and Cassel was still healthy....Another fact........teams that play the Oakland Raiders this year....the next game....they have gone 0 -13 ATS.........Good Luck !

I've been having a tough time with this game since it opened back up. You convinced me to take those points. Thanks, Bum! Good luck today!

[StarDust Bum]

This was taken from another site:

CHIEFS +365 And speaking of EXPOSED! Oakland sure showed that a good running game can plow right through the Chargers. Well guess what the Chiefs have? And without Cassell, the Chiefs should be running....and running....and running. Just like the Energizer bunny. People just "expect" Chargers to turn it on come December. Well last week prioved they're vulnerable.

[StarDust Bum]

Here are the rest of Bagiant Plays:

BEARS +125 I think this is a very solid pick. I don't think the Pats get it done in Chicago, although it's tough going against Brady. High winds give the advantage to the Bears running game, where Pats "D" ranks 31st.

LIONS +250 This could be the LIONS day. They should have beaten GB last time. This time they will!

REDSKINS +100 Pity poor TB that has to play in near freezing conditions and precipitation likely. TB has a history of NOT winning under those conditions.

SEAHAWKS +190 49ers just don't impress me. Don't think that Singletary knows what he's doing. It's pretty bad when your starting QB doesn't even know WHY you choose him to start!!!

DOLPHINS +190 Most think that Jets will bounce back from bad beat. I think they might have been EXPOSED, and the Dolphins will take advantage of that fact.

CHIEFS +365 And speaking of EXPOSED! Oakland sure showed that a good running game can plow right through the Chargers. Well guess what the Chiefs have? And without Cassell, the Chiefs should be running....and running....and running. Just like the Energizer bunny. People just "expect" Chargers to turn it on come December. Well last week prioved they're vulnerable.

COWBOYS +170 I really like the Boys in this spot. They've become a different team under Garrett. These two play again in three weeks. Blitzes get to Vick and turns the game in favor of the Boys.

[Sirwalter34]

Good luck Bum.