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**StarDust Bum** · 12-07-2010, 08:06 PM

NFC West at bottom of NFL betting odds

No doubt the NFC West is the worst division in the NFL. But just how bad is it?

It’s so bad that former Baltimore Ravens coach and network analyst Brian Billick said the NFL should reconsider playoff seeding since it would be unfair for the NFL West winner to host a postseason matchup.

There exists the possibility of the NFC West winner having a losing record, or at best a .500 mark. St. Louis and Seattle lead the division standings with 6-6 records. San Francisco is 4-8 and Arizona is 3-9. The race likely will be decided during the final week of the regular season when the Seahawks host the Rams.

The Rams are nine-point road underdogs to New Orleans this week. After the Saints, the Rams host Kansas City and San Francisco before closing against the Seahawks.

Seattle is 4 ½-point road underdogs to San Francisco on Sunday. The Seahawks then are home to Atlanta and go on the road to face Tampa Bay.

The overachieving Rams give the division a small dose of dignity since they have the best spread mark in the NFL at 9-3. All four teams, though, have had their embarrassments.

St. Louis, for example, lost 44-6 to the Detroit Lions, who have the second-worst record in the NFC at 2-10.

Rookie Sam Bradford gives the Rams the best quarterback in the division. Yet the Rams still rank among the bottom seven teams in the NFL in offense.

Seattle is horrendous away from Qwest Field failing to cover during 12 of its past 15 road contests. On the season, the Seahawks have been outscored by 49 points and outgained by 1,116 yards, an average of 93 yards per game.

San Francisco opened the year with realistic expectations of earning its first playoff berth since 2002. Starting off with five straight losses killed that idea. Now the 49ers are minus their best offensive player, Frank Gore. The team’s leading rusher and receiver is out for the year with a fractured hip.

Arizona has lost seven in a row. The Cardinals followed up an embarrassing 27-6 home loss on Monday night to San Francisco – where two of their players were caught laughing during the blowout – by losing at home again this past Sunday to St. Louis, 19-6, as three-point ‘dogs.

The Cardinals seemed to have quit defensively and their offense can’t do anything because of horrendous quarterback play. Arizona ranks among the bottom two teams in total offense, rushing and points scored averaging 16.7. Since Week 2, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 29.5 points per game.

Arizona has been stung by bad quarterback play. Derek Anderson, who has been ineffective all season, was pulled against the Rams replaced by Max Hall, who suffered a dislocated left shoulder after finishing with one fumble and one interception in five snaps.

The Cardinals then turned to rookie John Skelton to finish the game. It’s hard to think that first round bust Matt Leinart wouldn’t have been an improvement on this motley bunch.

The Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals all have losing ATS marks. Combined they are 8-16 against the number.

Not one of the NFC West teams has a winning straight-up road record. The Rams are 2-2, the Seahawks are 1-3, San Francisco is 0-4 and Arizona is 0-4. That’s a combined road mark of 3-13.

The team’s road spread records are bad, too. The Rams have covered three of their four road games, but Seattle is 1-3 ATS away from home, the 49ers are 1-3 and Arizona is 1-3. That’s a combined road spread mark of 6-10.

While the Rams have shown improvement, they still have dropped 20 of their last 24 road contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 02:03 AM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 14
December 6, 2010

INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (Thursday, December 9)...It's been a rough few weeks for the Titans, with no wins or covers in their last five. Jeff Fisher just 2-6 vs. line last 8 at LP Field. Titans have also lost and failed to cover last 3 vs. Indy after covering previous five. Note Colts "over" 8-1 last nine as visitor. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.
OAKLAND at JACKSONVILLE...Raiders very bipolar in performance pattern this season. Jack Del Rio 3-0 as chalk TY after 0-5 mark in role a year ago. Jags also 4-2 vs. line as host after dropping 16 of 24 spread decisions at home the previous three seasons. Jags also "over" 5-2 last 7 at home and "over" 8-4 overall in 2010. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jags, based on "totals" and team trends.

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH...Cincy continues to skid, now 0-9 SU and 2-7 vs. line last 9 TY as Marvin Lewis' days grow shorter. Bengals 3-7 vs. line last 10 away and have dropped 5 of last 7 spread decisions vs. Steelers, including narrow loss Nov. 8 at Paul Brown Stadium. Series "over" 4 of last 6, but note Tomlin's Steelers not going "over" as much at Heinz Field (just 2-3 TY and 17-15 last 32). Steel 4-4 as chalk TY and just 8-14 in role since '09. Tech edge-Steelers and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NEW ENGLAND at CHICAGO...Bears 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 vs. line since bye week. Lovie 5-1 vs. line as dog TY after 2-7 mark in role LY. Lovie also "under" 7-3-2 TY, and "under" 13-5-2 last 19 since mid '09. Belichick only 2-2 as road chalk TY after 1-3 mark in role LY. Prior to Jets game Dec. 6, Belichick has also been "over" 9-2 TY and "over" 11-2 since late LY, canceling out the Lovie "under" marks. Tech edge-slight to Bears, based on team trends.

CLEVELAND at BUFFALO...If Chan Gailey is favored, note 0-2 chalk mark TY. Prior to Miami game last week, Browns had been "over" a lot lately (5-0 last 5 overall, and 9-3 "over" since late LY prior to "under" vs. Dolphins). Browns have won and covered last three years in series, including a pair of the ugliest games in recent memory (8-0 in snow in '07, 6-3 LY). Tech edge-"Over," based on Browns' recent "totals" trends.

NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA...The last time Giants played at Metrodome, it was '09 reg.-season finale and they were blasted 44-7. Revenge is on the plate here. Vikes only 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY but have won and covered both since Brad Childress fired and Leslie Frazier promoted to HC spot. G-Men "under" last three after "over" 6-3 first 9 TY. Tech edge-Giants, based on Viking negatives.

GREEN BAY at DETROIT...Lions might be running on empty, no covers two of last three TY after 8-1 mark vs. line out of gate this season. That included a cover at Lambeau, but note Pack had covered 7 of previous 8 meetings, and Green Bay has won and covered last four trips to Ford Field. "Overs" 5-2 last 7 meetings, and Lions "over" 9-3-1 since late '09. Pack, however, "under" 8-4 TY. Tech edge-Packers, based on team and series trends.

ATLANTA at CAROLINA...Teams headed in opposite directions this season. Panthers just 1-5 vs. line at home TY and 3-9 vs. spread overall. Falcons have won and covered their last 4 TY. John Fox "under" 4-2 at Charlotte TY and "under" 21-9 as host since '07. Tech edge-Falcons and slight to "under," based on team and Panther home "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at WASHINGTON...Bucs continue amazing road cover pattern, 6-0 vs. spread away TY, now covers in eight straight as visitor since late '09. The Shan, meanwhile, just 1-3-1 vs. line last 5 as host TY, and his last two teams (Denver '08 and TY's Skins) just 2-10-2 vs. spread at home. Skins also 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 in 2010. Bucs, however, could be road chalk for first time in 2010, and first time anywhere since 2008 at Lions. Tech edge-Bucs, based on team and Shan home trends.

ST. LOUIS at NEW ORLEANS...Big test for Rams, who have covered 5 of 6 on road TY and 9 of last 11 overall vs. number. Saints also stirring a bit but only 2-3-1 vs. line as host TY. New Orleans also just 8-16-1 vs. line last 25 on board since mid '09. Both beginning to trend "over" (Saints last 3, Rams 3-1 last 4 after pronounced 15-8-1 "under" previously for Spagnuolo). Tech edge-Rams and slight to "over," based on team and recent "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO...Revenge for Niners after ugly 31-6 opening-day loss set tone for first half of season. Pete Carroll only 2-4 vs. line on road TY and Seahawks 3-12 vs. number last 15 as visitor. Singletary only 2-6 as chalk TY, however. Tech edge-slight to 49ers, based on extended Seahawk road woes.

MIAMI at NY JETS...Dolphins continue startling road form, now 5-1 SU and vs. line away TY, and Sparano now 16-5 vs. spread last 21 as visitor since early '08. Dolphins have covered last two as series visitor, but this is first trip to New Meadowlands. Sparano also "under" 5-1 away TY. Rex Ryan, however, "over" 8-3 TY and "over" 12-4 last 16 since late '09 (both prior to Patriots on Dec. 6), but he's only 3-3 vs. line as host TY and 7-7 since '09. Last three also "over" in series. Tech edge-Dolphins and slight to "over," based on team and series "totals" trends.

DENVER at ARIZONA...What a game! Denver 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY, Cards 1-6 last 7 and 2-9 last 11 on board. Cards "over" 7-4-1 TY and 9-4-1 last 14 since late '09, while young Josh "over" 8-4 TY and 13-4 last 16 since late '09. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Broncos, based on "totals" trends and recent Card woes.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Norv revenge! Norv 4-1 SU and vs. line in rare in-season revenge since '07 (but lost in role vs. Oakland last week). Bolts 22-101 vs. line in reg. season from 8th week forward since Norv's arrival in '07. Norv also "over" 12-6 last 18. Todd Haley "over" 15-10-1 with KC. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Norv, based on "totals" and team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS...Cowboys 4-0 vs. line since Jason Garrett took over for Wade Phillips. Cowboys have also covered last 2 at home after dropping previous 4 vs. number as host TY. Revenge for Andy Reid after Dallas dominated Brids LY, winning and covering three times, including a pair of humbling wins at Arlington (one in the wild card round). Birds only 5-6 vs. points TY and 3-3 away. Andy "over" 20-10 last 20 since late '08 and "over" 5 of 6 away TY (and 7-2 "over" last 9 on road). Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.

BALTIMORE at HOUSTON (Monday, December 13)... Ravens only 4-6-1 vs. spread last 11 on road, and 2-3 last 5 as road chalk. Kubiak "over" 8-4 TY and "over" 10-4 last 14 since late '09. Texans 0-3 SU and 1-2 vs. line all-time vs. Ravens. Kubiak 5-2 last 7 as home dog since '07. Tech edge-slight to "over" and Texans, based on Kubiak trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 02:04 AM

Down the Stretch
December 7, 2010

Coaching Trends (Week 13 to 16)

With the NFL season approaching its stretch run for the 2010 season, let's examine the strengths and weaknesses head coaches have displayed throughout their NFL career during the final four games of the season. By becoming aware of the good, bad and ugly roles we can put ourselves into position to make a key score or two between now and the start of the playoffs.
Listed below are each coach and their Best or Worst Against the Spread situational record. All results are regular season ATS from Games 13-16 and are lifetime with current and former teams. Enjoy the run to the wire…

COACH (TEAM): ROLE

Belichick (New England): 12-3 home opp off loss

Cable (Oakland): 0-3 off division

Caldwell (Indianapolis): 2-0 off DD win

Carroll (Seattle): 0-6 favorite

Coughlin (N.Y. Giants): 3-13 off win 7 >

Del Rio (Jacksonville): 2-8 off SUATS loss

Fisher (Tennessee): 7-0 fav 9 >

Fox (Carolina): 7-0 w/division revenge

Gailey (Buffalo): 0-4 vs non-division

Haley (Kansas City): visitor 4-0

Harbaugh (Baltimore): 5-1 vs non-division

Kubiak (Houston): 5-0 home off loss

Lewis (Cincinnati): 1-7-1 fav 3 >

Mangini (Cleveland): 5-0 road dog

McCarthy (Green Bay): 5-0 dog

McDaniels (Denver): 0-3 fav or dog < 7

Morris (Tampa Bay): visitor 4-0

Payton (New Orleans): 1-5-1 opp off SUATS win

Reid (Philadelphia): 1-6 fav 8 >

Ryan (N.Y. Jets): 3-0 off win 14 <

Schwartz (Detroit): 0-2-1 vs .500 <

Singletary (San Francisco): 3-0 dog < 7

Shanahan (Washington): 1-11 vs division

Smith L (Chicago): 0-7 off BB wins

Smith M (Atlanta): 4-0 vs opp off win

Spagnuolo (St. Louis): 0-3 off loss 21 <

Sparano (Miami): visitor 8-0

Tomlin (Pittsburgh): 1-4 vs > .666

Turner (San Diego): 10-2-1 off BB wins

Whisenhunt (Arizona): 0-6 vs non-division

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 07:46 PM

NFL betting trends for Thursday participants

The introduction of Thursday games in the latter part of the season provides some teams with what amounts to a second bye week at a time when some extra rest can be very beneficial. Wagering on these teams the week following these late-season Thursday games has proven to be very successful.
Starting with Week 10, there have been six Thursday games (we are not including the season opener between Minnesota and New Orleans in this study). Since last Thursday’s participants (Houston and Philadelphia) have yet to take the field again, that leaves us with 10 teams to examine. There have also been two games featuring a pair of teams that played a Thursday game the week before so we’ve tossed those games from the study for the time being. The six remaining teams in this study are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their next games (5-1 SU). Restated, six teams that have participated in a late-season Thursday night game have faced a team that did not have the benefit of the extra rest the following week, and all six of these teams have beaten the spread. When you put the two games in which both teams were coming off the extra rest back into the mix, straight-up losers of Thursday night games are 5-0 ATS in their next games (3-2 SU).

Houston and Philadelphia will be looking to keep these angles perfect in Week 14. The Texans, last Thursday’s losers, are a home underdog to Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Keep in mind that the Ravens are exiting an extremely physical loss to Pittsburgh, which probably took an emotional toll on the team as well. As we pointed out earlier in the week, Houston has been one of the best home teams in the NFL over the final four weeks of the regular season during the past five years, posting an ATS record of 9-3 (75%).

Philadelphia, which defeated Houston last Thursday, is favored at Dallas in the Sunday night prime time game. The Cowboys are a dismal 2-7 ATS (22%) at home in the final quarter of the season over the last five years. The Cowboys are just 2-4 ATS at home this season.

Believe it or not, we have also uncovered a highly successful angle involving a certain group of teams that have had shorter rest periods between games.

With their 45-3 pasting of the NY Jets on Monday, New England became just the sixth home team to win outright on Monday Night Football this season (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS). Like the five home winners before them, the Patriots will be on the road (at Chicago) for their next game after a short week of preparation. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this has been a successful formula in 2010.

Teams playing on the road on Sunday after winning at home on Monday are 4-1 ATS (80%) this season (3-2 SU). The most recent example of this came in Week 12 when San Diego humiliated Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium after defeating division rival Denver at Qualcomm the preceding Monday.

The Patriots are a solid 4-2 on the road both ATS and SU so far this season and are 2-0 both ATS and SU against the NFC North. The Bears are an even 3-3 ATS at home (4-2 SU).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 07:55 PM

NFL Betting Preview: Bengals at Steelers

Two rivals on opposite ends of the AFC North standings collide Sunday when Cincinnati visits Pittsburgh. The Bengals (2-10 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) are gunning for their first victory since late September when they beat lowly Carolina.

Cincinnati is a dismal 1-5 SU on the road this season, and 1-7 SU versus conference opponents. The Bengals are 0-3 when scoring 30 points or more, and have lost nine games in a row after starting the season 2-1.

Pittsburgh (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) currently resides atop the AFC North despite its modest 3-2 SU home ledger. The Steelers are just 3-7 ATS versus teams with a losing record. Coach Mike Tomlin’s team has seen the ‘over’ go 7-3-1 the past 11 outings when listed as the favorite.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds show Pittsburgh as 8 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Cincinnati, with the total set at 39 ½. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Sunday’s AFC North matchup beginning at 10 a.m. PT from Heinz Field.

Cincinnati continued its downward spiral towards the offseason with last Sunday’s setback to New Orleans as a 6 ½-point home underdog, 34-30. The combined 64 points soared past the 45-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 6-3 the previous nine outings. The Bengals had dropped consecutive contests ATS before covering against the Saints.

The defending AFC North champions have dropped nine consecutive contests for just the third time in franchise history. The game appeared to be heading into overtime before a costly offsides penalty gave New Orleans a first down. The Saints promptly scored a touchdown on the next play with just 31 seconds remaining in the game.

Quarterback Carson Palmer was 23-of-33 passing for 249 yards with a touchdown, connecting with wideout Chad Ochocinco five times for 96 yards. Running back Cedric Benson accounted for 19 carries for 49 yards in the loss.

As bad as things are in Cincinnati, the opposite appears to be true in the Steel City.

Pittsburgh took sole possession atop the AFC North compliments of its victory over Baltimore last Sunday as a three-point road underdog, 13-10. The combined 23 points never seriously threatened the 38-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest.

The Steelers won this defensive struggle by outscoring the Ravens in the fourth quarter, 10-0. Pittsburgh finished the matchup with advantages in first downs (17-14), rushing yards (54-43), passing yards (234-226) and time of possession (34:08-25:52).

Signal caller Ben Roethlisberger was 22-of-38 passing for 253 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Rashard Mendenhall was limited to 45 yards on 19 carries, while wideout Mike Wallace caught five passes for 76 yards.

Pittsburgh defeated Cincinnati Nov. 8 as five-point road ‘chalk,’ 27-21. The combined 48 points toppled the 41 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 4-1 the past five games in this series. The road team is 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 meetings between these teams.

Cincinnati defensive back Brandon Ghee is ‘questionable’ against the Steelers due to an injured groin. The Bengals have a two-game homestand after this contest versus Cleveland and San Diego before ending their season at Baltimore.

Pittsburgh tight end Matt Spaeth (concussion) is ‘probable’ versus the Bengals, while tight end Heath Miller (concussion) and offensive tackle Flozell Adams (ankle) are ‘doubtful.’ The Steelers continue a three-game homestand following this matchup with games against the New York Jets and Carolina.

Sunday’s forecast for Pittsburgh calls for a 60 percent chance of rain/snow, with a high of 39 degrees and a low of 19.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 07:57 PM

NFL Odds: Patriots face tough test at Chicago

The New England Patriots need to rebound quickly, both mentally and physically, when they face the tough Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon.

Bookmaker.com has New England as three-point road favorites (minus 115) with a total of 41 points. Chicago is plus 150 to win its six straight game.

The Patriots (10-2 straight-up, 7-4-1 against the spread) are coming off an emotional 45-3 home win over the New York Jets on MNF. Jets coach Rex Ryan had been running his mouth all week and Bill Belichick at least temporarily shut it by running up the score in embarrassing fashion.

The win gives New England the AFC East lead and the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the conference. However, none of that is a given and it will be hard to bounce back in a short week on the road.

The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring at 31.6 PPG. They’ve put up 40 PPG since their awful 34-14 loss at Cleveland on November 7. They’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in that span. The ‘over’ is 6-0 in their last six games and 10-2 on the season.

Tom Brady is having an MVP season with a league-leading quarterback rating of 109.5. The offense has been transformed to a short passing attack since Randy Moss was traded after Week 4 and former Patriot Deion Branch acquired. Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6 and has 27 TDs versus four picks on the year.

New England has had a brutal schedule that includes Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego and the Jets (twice). All those games were wins except for the first Jets game on the road.

The Patriots are 4-2 SU and ATS on the road overall. The short passing game is effective both home and away and shouldn’t be affected too much by expected high temperatures of 20 degrees. The running back combination of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will likely struggle against Chicago’s second-ranked run defense (84.9 YPG).

The Bears (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are feeling good about themselves with their current five game winning streak (3-1-1 ATS) and one-game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North.

Chicago escaped with a 24-20 win at Detroit last week, failing to ‘cover’ the five-point spread. Quarterback Jay Cutler went 21-of-26 for 234 yards and has five TDs and no interceptions the last two games.

The Bears are now 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight December games. New England is 30-5 SU in December since 2002, 6-2 ATS in the last eight of those. New England is 33-5 SU in its last 38 regular season games versus the NFC.

Cutler has a big arm, but the team is only 26th in passing (197.4 YPG). It will be tempting to go down the field against a young Patriots defense that is 31st against the pass (276.8 YPG). The Pats ‘D’ played well holding the Jets to three points last week, but a shaky Mark Sanchez was at least some of the reason.

The Bears have gotten back to the running game with Matt Forte. He’s averaging 86.8 YPG the last four weeks as opposed to 50.2 in the first eight. New England can have success stopping the run this week, so Cutler could be forced to throw into tight spaces, possibly adding to his 10 interceptions.

Chicago has benefited from an easy schedule lately. Only one of its last eight opponents currently has an above .500 record. That was Philadelphia, who the Bears beat at home two weeks ago, 31-26 as three point ‘dogs.

Chicago is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this year. The defense has allowed 23 PPG the last two games, with the ‘over’ 2-0. The defense allowed 12.2 PPG in the first 10 games, with the ‘under’ going 8-2.

These teams haven’t met since 2006 and have played just six times since Mike Ditka’s team crushed the Patriots (46-10) in the January 1986 Super Bowl. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

New England defensive linemen Myron Pryor (back injury) and Mike Wright (head) are both questionable. Chicago linebackers Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) and Nick Roach (hip) are doubtful and questionable respectively.

Kickoff from Soldier Field will be 1:15 p.m. (PT) on CBS.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 07:57 PM

NFL odds mismatch - Panthers host Falcons

Preseason futures odds priced the Atlanta Falcons as a legitimate threat to the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. The Falcons were plus 165 behind the Saints' minus 250 in the division. So far, so good for Atlanta who takes the NFC's top record into Week 14 at 10-2 straight up, good enough for a one-game division lead over New Orleans.

Those same futures listed the Carolina Panthers as also-rans at 12/1 to take the group and were supposed to finish third in front of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So far, so bad for Carolina who sports the NFL's worst mark at 1-11, the only NFC South squad with a losing record.

The Panthers are home against the Falcons this Sunday at Charlotte's Bank of America Stadium, bookmakers giving the hosts anywhere from 7-9 points in the matchup. The game total opened at 41½-42, but has since inched up to 42½ at most offshore shops and in Vegas.

Instead of also-rans, the Panthers have turned into also-ran overs with the opposition doubling up Carolina on the season by an average score of 25.6 to 12.8. The six-game losing skid the Panthers carry into this game has them overmatched by nearly 100 points. The defense's middling ranking (17th) in total yards allowed doesn't seem to match its 26th place in points allowed.

The defense isn't so much to blame. Carolina's offense has given it away 30 times, tied with Arizona for most in the NFL. Eighteen of those are interceptions, all but two off throws made by Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, the rookie out of Notre Dame.

Head coach John Fox will pay the ultimate price for the team's failures this season. Clausen can still redeem himself with strong showings the final four games of the season. He's shown no reason to expect that, however, with a 55.3 QB rating in 200 pass attempts, only one of them going for six points. He was 18-for-34 with a pick and no TDs in last week's 31-14 loss at Seattle where the Seahawks were five-point faves.

The latest defeat left the Panthers 3-9 against the spread on the campaign. It also was the fourth consecutive 'over' (40½) to leave that category evenly split at 6-6.

While things couldn't be going any worse for the Panthers, Atlanta is cooking with Crisco and has gone from playing second fiddle to the Saints in the division to first chair in the conference. The Falcons are presently minus 350 to win the NFC South at Bookmaker.com, and plus 250 to win the NFC Championship. Green Bay and New Orleans trail Atlanta in the latter, each with plus 325 prices.

The Falcons have feasted at home with an unbeaten 6-0 straight up mark and 4-2 ATS, going 4-2 on the road where they're also 4-2 versus the number. Atlanta earned its sixth consecutive win last Sunday in Tampa Bay, rallying covering the three-point chalk line with a 28-24 triumph. Eric Weems' 102-yard kickoff return started the fourth-quarter comeback that was completed by Matt Ryan's TD pass to Michael Jenkins with about 4:30 left in the game.

Ryan was a bit off in the game, tossing two picks after entering the game with just five interceptions on the season and none in his previous four games. Michael Turner ran for 88 yards and a score in the win, crossing the 1,000-yard plateau.

It's the first meeting between the squads this year, a series that has been level recently. The teams have split their two annual meetings each of the past four years, each going 2-2 straight up on their home fields and each owning a 4-4 mark at the NFL betting window.

The last three battles have gone 'over,' averaging 56 points combined in that span. A big wad of that scoring came in a 73-point explosion in 2008 at the Georgia Dome.

Mismatch is written all over this one, though I'm initially hesitant at a line over eight points since it's difficult to know how Falcons head coach Mike Smith might be playing it. Atlanta has a road date in Seattle next week plus a big home game in Week 16 versus New Orleans. The weather forecast currently calls for a wet, cool afternoon with a 60 percent chance of showers and highs barely scratching 50ºF. I like 'under' 42½ and will light a candle that Atlanta doesn't completely overlook the Panthers to allow them in the game.

A sequel will take place in Atlanta the last week of the season. Between now and then, Carolina is home against the Cardinals next week and will be at Pittsburgh in Week 16.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-08-2010, 07:59 PM

Colts and Titans kick off NFL betting slate

The Indianapolis Colts-Tennessee Titans Thursday night matchup looks great on paper with marquee stars Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson and Randy Moss.

The reality is quite different, however:

•Manning has thrown 11 interceptions in the last three weeks. He’s never been picked off that many times during a three-week span in his 13-year career.
•Johnson has rushed for a mere 58 yards in his last two games.
•Moss has the grand total of five catches for 62 yards in four games with Tennessee.
•Indianapolis is 6-6. Tennessee is 5-7. Both teams are desperate. Neither is in good form.
Kickoff is 5:20 PT with the NFL Network televising. The Colts are minus 2 ½ with the ‘over/under’ at 46 ½.

The Colts have lost their last three games, including 38-35 to Dallas this past Sunday as 5 ½-point home favorites. The combined 73 points sailed ‘over’ the 47 ½-point total. The Cowboys intercepted Manning four times returning two for touchdowns.

Tennessee is in worse shape. The Titans have dropped five in a row. They’ve gone 13 consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. Their starting quarterback, Vince Young, is out for the year with a thumb injury and their offensive coordinator, Mike Heimerdinger, is battling cancer.

Rusty Smith and Kerry Collins have been terrible the last two weeks as Tennessee’s quarterbacks. Collins had a passer rating of 34.5, his worst start since 2005, in the Titans’ 17-6 home loss last Sunday to Jacksonville. The Titans fell as three-point home favorites with the combined 24 points going ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.

Defenses are stacking the line to key on Johnson daring the Titans to throw. Johnson rushed for an NFL-high 2,006 yards last season, while setting a league-record with 2,509 combined yards.

Johnson has rushed for 1,026 yards this season, averaging 4.3 yards per rush. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry last year. Only twice in his last five games has Johnson rushed for more than 66 yards.

Johnson, though, could be in line for a big game. The Colts are down to 29th in run defense after surrendering 217 yards to Dallas even though Marion Barber didn’t play.

Moss has done nothing since coming to the Titans after being released by Minnesota. Tennessee has failed to break the 17-point barrier since Moss arrived four games ago.

Collins, who turns 38 at the end of the month, may be less rusty this week. He had missed the last two games with a calf injury before facing the Jaguars. There’s a good chance Collins will have Kenny Britt to throw to. Britt, who leads the Titans with seven touchdown receptions, has been out the last five weeks with a hamstring injury.

Manning has thrown for a league-leading 3,709 yards and 24 touchdowns, but clearly has been pressing due to breakdowns in pass protection, a non-existent ground attack averaging an NFL-worst 3.5 yards per carry and a soft defense that is without injured cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Jerraud Powers, who broke his arm in the loss to the Cowboys.

Joseph Addai, the Colts’ best running back, isn’t expected to play this week. He’s been out since Week 6 with a neck injury.

The Colts have won and covered the past three times they’ve met the Titans, outscoring them, 81-26, during this span. The teams square off again in Week 17.

Indianapolis is 13-6-1 ATS during its past 20 road contests. The Colts, though, have lost four of six road matchups this season falling to Houston, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and New England. Those teams combined to average 30.5 points against the Colts.

The weather forecast for the game is partly cloudy with temperatures in the 30s and five mph winds.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-09-2010, 07:13 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/06/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/05/10 16-12-0 57.14% +1400 Detail
12/02/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
Totals 17-15-0 53.13% +250

Thursday, December 9Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 8:20 PM ET Indianapolis -3 500
Tennessee - Over 44.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 12-09-2010, 08:02 PM

Banged-up Colts try to end losing streak Thursday

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-6)
at TENNESSEE TITANS (5-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 45

The Colts try to avoid their first four-game losing streak since 2001 when they visit Tennessee, losers of five straight, on Thursday night. Both teams know their only shot to make the playoffs is to win their final four games to take the AFC South Division crown. While Tennessee is relatively injury-free, the Colts have a gaggle of injury concerns. RB Joseph Addai (neck), RB Mike Hart (ankle) and WR Austin Collie (concussions) are all out for Thursday’s game, while TE Jacob Tamme (knee) is questionable and WR Reggie Wayne (knee) is probable to play at Tennessee.

Colts QB Peyton Manning has thrown an uncanny 11 interceptions during the losing streak, but he has won three straight games against the Titans, throwing for five scores and just one interception in those contests. The big reason Manning is forcing the issue through the air is that the running game has been terrible without Addai and Hart. Over the past five games, the Colts are averaging a mere 55 rushing YPG on 3.0 yards per carry.

Tennessee is glad the Colts are forced to throw the football because the Titans can’t stop anybody on the ground. Tennessee has allowed 159 rushing YPG during its losing skid, including 258 to Jacksonville last week. The Titans have many more issues on the offensive side of the ball, failing to score an offensive touchdown in 13 straight quarters of action. Kerry Collins will start at QB again, despite his woeful performance against the Jaguars (14-of-32, 169 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT). RB Chris Johnson also needs to pick up his game, as he has gained a paltry 58 rushing yards in his past two games. He could find plenty of holes in a Colts defense surrendering 171 rushing YPG during their three-game losing skid.

These teams have been pretty evenly matched when they play in Tennessee, with Indianapolis 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in the past eight games at LP Field. These two FoxSheets trends show why home underdog Tennessee is the play for Thursday night.

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (TENNESSEE) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. (79-38 since 1983.) (67.5%, +37.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game.(34-10 since 1983.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets expect this game to go Over the Total based on these two trends.

Play Over - Any team against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

INDIANAPOLIS is 23-6 OVER (79.3%, +16.4 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-09-2010, 08:03 PM

Jets coach Ryan to sit down 1-on-1 with QB Sanchez

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) - New York Jets coach Rex Ryan says he will sit down with Mark Sanchez - ``like a lunch date'' - to discuss football and other things with the slumping quarterback.

Ryan says Thursday he plans to meet with Sanchez later in the day to discuss the Jets' next opponent, Miami (6-6), since the coach has familiarity with how Dolphins defensive coordinator Mike Nolan calls games.

Normally, Ryan meets with Sanchez along with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh every Friday. Ryan says he'll still do that, but wanted one-on-one time with Sanchez so they could talk, ``like he's my son or something.''

Ryan says he'll do the same next week, before the Jets (9-3) play Pittsburgh.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-09-2010, 08:04 PM

Cardinals still not choosing starting QB

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) - Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt still isn't choosing a starting quarterback for Sunday's game against Denver, but speculation is centering on rookie John Skelton.

Derek Anderson sat out practice again Thursday because he had not been cleared to participate after a concussion sidelined him late in Sunday's 19-6 loss to St. Louis.

That left Skelton and newly signed Richard Bartel as the only quarterbacks to practice.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-09-2010, 08:04 PM

Harrison questions if Ravens targeted him

PITTSBURGH (AP) - Steelers linebacker James Harrison has been fined four times this season for dangerous hits. Now, he thinks an opposing player should be disciplined for supposedly going after him.

Harrison believes Baltimore Ravens guard Chris Chester deliberately went after him while being called for a false-start penalty during an extra-point attempt Sunday. Chester came off the line of scrimmage and drove at Harrison, an unusual blocking technique because offensive linemen generally try to remain packed to avoid potential blocked kicks.

Harrison, a three-time Pro Bowl linebacker, said it was the perfect time to target him because such an infraction draws only a 5-yard penalty. He also believes Chester may have been trying to hurt him.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-09-2010, 08:07 PM

NFL odds favor Chargers by TD versus Chiefs

Slow starts are nothing new for the San Diego Chargers.

Something that is new for the Chargers, though, is losing at home in December to the Oakland Raiders as 13 ½-point favorites. That loss last Sunday dropped San Diego to 6-6, while putting in peril its playoff chances.

The Chargers have won the AFC West Division title four consecutive years. But unless San Diego defeats 8-4 Kansas City at home Sunday at 1:15 p.m. PT its division streak is finished. So, too, probably are its postseason hopes.

NFL oddsmakers don’t see it happening. They’ve installed San Diego as seven-point favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 46 ½.

Yes, it’s a must-win spot for San Diego. The Chargers have the statistics to justify being a touchdown favorite ranking first in total defense and No. 2 in total offense. Philip Rivers is having a monster year ranking second in passing yards to Peyton Manning with 3,642 yards, throwing 24 touchdown passes and being third in the league’s quarterback ratings.

Kansas City’s best cornerback, Brandon Flowers, has been hampered by a hamstring injury.

But can the Chargers be trusted after last week’s 28-13 loss, their worst defeat in 58 games? The Raiders ran for 251 yards and had three touchdowns on the ground. Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing averaging 175.2 yards per game, that’s 25 yards more per game than the next closest team, Jacksonville.

Jamaal Charles is the league's third-leading rusher while averaging an NFL-best 6.2 yards per carry. Reliable Thomas Jones is on pace for a sixth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season.

Thanks to the steady play of quarterback Matt Cassel, the Chiefs only have nine turnovers, fewest in the league. Cassel has thrown only one interception since Week 3. He ranks just 18th in passing yards with 2,503, but has a fantastic 23:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Cassel, however, underwent an appendectomy this week and is ‘questionable.’ He would be replaced by Brodie Croyle if he can’t play.

Dwayne Bowe had been the hottest receiver in football until blanked by Denver cornerback Champ Bailey during last Sunday’s 10-6 home win as nine-point favorites. Bowe had 32 receptions and seven touchdowns in his previous three games. Bowe has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight games.

The Chiefs haven’t faced many big-games such as this. Their last division title was in 2003. They hadn’t won more than four games in a season since 2006. The Chiefs’ only win this season versus a team above .500 now is against 7-5 Jacksonville.

The Chiefs, however, have covered six of the past seven times they’ve been a ‘dog.

Until their surprising flat performance against the Raiders, the Chargers had scored 36, 35, 29 and 33 points during their past four games.

Turnovers and poor special teams play have hurt San Diego. The Chargers have fumbled 14 times and Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions.

Dexter McCluster had a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown when the Chiefs upset the Chargers, 21-14, as four-point home ‘dogs in Week 1. That game was played in heavy rain. The Chargers dominated the stats outgained the Chiefs by 92 yards, having an 18-to-nine first down advantage and controlling the ball for 37:22 minutes to Kansas City’s 22:32.

The loss snapped San Diego’s six-game winning streak versus the Chiefs. Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last seven visits to Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs haven’t won there since 2007.

The ‘over’ has cashed in Kansas City’s past four road matchups. The Chargers are 7-2-1 to the ‘over’ in their last 10 December games.

Not surprisingly the weather should be perfect in San Diego with temperatures in the 60s and zero percent chance of rain.

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