Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2010, 11:40 AM

UNC favored at home over Kentucky

KENTUCKY WILDCATS (5-1)

at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (4-3)

Tip-off: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: North Carolina -1, Total: 146

They are young, loaded, talented, and still learning. They also share the same description. When North Carolina and Kentucky square off at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, the game will match two of college basketball’s top four recruiting classes, with one team in a race against the clock to achieve greatness, while the other team seems to be in a race to achieve respectability.

The Tar Heels (4-3) will welcome a game surrounded by a friendly home crowd, since all three of Carolina’s losses have come away from home. The most recent defeat was a 79-67 loss to 21st-ranked Illinois in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Five Illini players scored in double figures as the generous Heels defense allowed the opposition to shoot 50% from the field. Early foul trouble by leading scorer Tyler Zeller (14.7 PPG) helped to put the Heels into a halftime hole that they would not overcome. Meanwhile freshman Preseason All-American pick Harrison Barnes continued his struggles offensively. Barnes (11.3 PPG) had eight points on 2-for-9 shooting versus Illinois, and has hit on only 33% of his FG attempts. Ball protection has also been a big problem for Roy Williams’ squad. After seven games, the Heels as a team have more turnovers (116) than assists (106).

Kentucky enters the game at 5-1, but still may be licking their wounds from the 17-point beating Connecticut laid on them in the Maui Invitational Championship game. Head coach John Calipari has his own pair of freshman standouts. Forward Terrence Jones leads the Wildcats in scoring and rebounding (20.7 PPG, 10.2 RPG) and is being followed everywhere by NBA scouts the way paparazzi follows Lindsay Lohan. Fellow frosh Brandon Knight is second on the team in scoring (17.3 PPG) and tops in assists, but needs to improve upon his assist-to-turnover ratio (20 assists, 27 turnovers) to keep his coach happy, and keep himself on the floor.

Much like last year’s Elite Eight loss to West Virginia, Calipari saw his young team unravel in the spotlight of a major opponent in its loss to Connecticut. Saturday his young squad gets another chance on the national stage to show what lessons they have learned, and if they are contenders or pretenders for a final four spot in Houston next April.

Expect Kentucky to win a close game on Saturday afternoon. The FoxSheets back up the Kentucky pick with this four-star, negative UNC trend:

N CAROLINA is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N CAROLINA 68.4, OPPONENT 73.9 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets like the Under based on this four-star trend:

N CAROLINA is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N CAROLINA 70.5, OPPONENT 72.5 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2010, 11:41 AM

Duke-Butler rematch happens Saturday in NJ

BUTLER BULLDOGS (4-2)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (7-0)

IZOD Center – East Rutherford, NJ
Tip-off: Saturday, 3:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -15, Total: 142

Butler and top-ranked Duke meet in a rematch of last season's thrilling national championship game on Saturday afternoon in East Rutherford, NJ. And just like the matchup this past April, the Blue Devils are heavy favorites again.

Duke has lived up to its lofty expectations thanks to a dynamic, high-scoring offense, which is averaging 90.3 PPG (third in nation) and is one of 17 teams in the nation shooting 50% from the field. Nolan Smith is one of five Blue Devils who are in double digits in scoring (16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG and 4.7 RPG). Freshman phenom Kyrie Irving has lived up the hype with stats nearly identical to Smith’s: 16.9 PPG, 5.6 APG and 4.0 RPG. Irving has scored in double figures in all seven Duke games and had a career-high 31 points (8-12 FG, 13-16 FT) in an 84-79 victory over No. 6 Michigan State on Wednesday.

Kyle Singler (16.0 PPG), Mason Plumlee (10.9 PPG) and Andre Dawkins (10.7 PPG) are the other three players averaging 10-plus points for Duke.

Butler isn't the same team that gave Duke a 61-59 scare in April's national title game. Gone are Gordon Hayward, Avery Jukes and Willie Veasley. And point guard Ronald Nored has missed two straight games with a concussion and is questionable for Saturday.

Matt Howard leads the Bulldogs with 16.0 PPG and 9.7 RPG. He's hitting 55% from the field, including 39% on three-pointers. Since opening the season with six points against Marian, Howard has scored in double-digits in five straight games. Shelvin Mack is the only other Bulldog who is in double figures in scoring (15.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG).

Both of the Bulldogs' two losses were not what the NCAA Tournament committee would consider quality losses. They were crushed at Louisville, 88-73, and lost at home to Evansville, 71-68 in overtime, without Nored. The Bulldogs rebounded from the loss to the Aces with a close 65-63 win at Loyola-Illinois on Wednesday. If Butler is to hang with Duke, the Bulldogs will need to shoot better than they have this season (43.5%) and much better than they did in their two losses to Louisville and Evansville (34%).

The last time these teams met in the regular season was in the 2002-03 campaign, an 80-60 blowout by Duke. Expect a similar result with Duke covering the 15-point spread. The FoxSheets back up the Duke pick with this coaching trend:

Mike Krzyzewski is 79-47 ATS (62.7%, +27.3 Units) off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of DUKE. The average score was DUKE 82.2, OPPONENT 66.4 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets side with the Under in this game:

Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (DUKE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, undefeated on the season. (46-17 since 1997.) (73%, +27.3 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2010, 04:47 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/03/10 9-16-1 36.00% -4300 Detail
12/02/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/01/10 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail
Totals 22-31-1 41.51% -6050

Saturday, December 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:30 PM ET Charlotte +4 500
Philadelphia - Under 187 500

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Miami -9 500
Miami - Over 193 500

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +7 500
Chicago - Over 201 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland +1 500
Minnesota - Under 205.5 500

Orlando - 8:30 PM ET Milwaukee -3.5 500
Milwaukee - Over 183.5 500

Dallas - 10:00 PM ET Dallas -7.5 500
Sacramento - Over 186.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/03/10 4-7-1 36.36% -1615 Detail
12/02/10 4-2-0 66.67% +950 Detail
12/01/10 6-8-0 42.86% -1370 Detail
Totals 14-17-1 45.16% -2035

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +140 500
Toronto - Over 5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Ottawa -111 500
Ottawa - Under 5.5 500

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta +186 500
Washington - Under 6 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -127 500
Columbus - Over 5.5 500

Colorado - 7:30 PM ET Colorado +127 500
Tampa Bay - Under 6 500

Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Carolina +125 500
Nashville - Under 5.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Dallas -180 500
Dallas - Under 5.5 500

Florida - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix -180 500
Phoenix - Under 5 500

St. Louis - 10:00 PM ET Edmonton +109 500
Edmonton - Under 5.5 500

Detroit - 10:30 PM ET Detroit +117 500
Los Angeles - Over 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2010, 05:17 PM

College Hoops Evening Games:

Old Dominion - 7:00 PM ET Old Dominion -10.5 500
Delaware -

Cincinnati - 7:00 PM ET Toledo +17.5 500
Toledo -

Austin Peay - 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay -2 500
Eastern Illinois -

Wofford - 7:00 PM ET Wofford -9 500
Elon University -

Tenn-Martin - 7:00 PM ET Tenn-Martin +11.5 500
Eastern Kentucky -

Indiana St. - 7:00 PM ET Indiana St. +0 500
Wyoming - Under 133.5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo +4 500
St. Bonaventure -

NC-Wilmington - 7:30 PM ET NC-Wilmington +15.5 500
George Mason -

Miami (OH) - 8:00 PM ET Dayton -8 500
Dayton -

Cornell - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -17.5 500
Minnesota - Under 137 500

Murray St. - 8:00 PM ET Murray St. +3.5 500
Morehead St. -

Louisiana-Monroe - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -13 500
Louisiana Tech -

Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM ET Southern Mississippi +2.5 500
Mississippi - Over 140 500

South Florida - 8:00 PM ET South Florida +1 500
Florida Atlantic -

Cleveland St. - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland St. -4 500
Wis.-Milwaukee -

Western Kentucky - 8:00 PM ET Memphis -14 500
Memphis -

Pacific - 8:00 PM ET Texas A&M -12 500
Texas A&M -

Montana St. - 8:05 PM ET Montana St. +7 500
Illinois St. -

Utah - 8:05 PM ET Utah +2.5 500
Bradley -

Tennessee St. - 8:30 PM ET SE Missouri St. +2.5 500
SE Missouri St. -

Tennessee Tech - 8:45 PM ET Jacksonville St. -2 500
Jacksonville St. -

Fresno St. - 9:00 PM ET Fresno St. +13 500
Colorado St. -

New Mexico - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico St. +6.5 500
New Mexico St. -

San Diego - 9:05 PM ET Cal St. Fullerton -4.5 500
Cal St. Fullerton -

UC Santa Barbara - 10:00 PM ET UC Santa Barbara +2 500
Santa Clara -

San Jose St. - 10:00 PM ET San Jose St. +5 500
UC Irvine -

Wichita St. - 10:00 PM ET Wichita St. +9.5 500
San Diego St. - Over 133 500

Oregon St. - 10:00 PM ET Colorado -7 500
Colorado -

UNLV - 11:00 PM ET UNLV -16.5 500
Nevada -

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2010, 05:29 PM

15-4 Orlando travels to Milwaukee

ORLANDO MAGIC (15-4)

at MILWAUKEE BUCKS (6-12)

Tip off: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

Two teams going in opposite directions will meet Saturday in Milwaukee.

The Magic are tied with Boston for the best record in the Eastern Conference, but have struggled against the spread this season, especially on the road. Orlando is 2-6 ATS on the road this year. The Magic have also struggled in back-to-back games, posting a 1-4 ATS mark with zero days rest this season.

In 2009-10, Milwaukee won 61% of its home games ATS (26-17) and were 26-18 (59%) as an underdog. This season, the Bucks have the second-best defense (91.9 PPG) in the NBA, which has been even more stingy at home (89.8 PPG). Dwight Howard will get his numbers, but the Bucks have held Jameer Nelson to 7.7 PPG and 36% FG, easily his lowest career numbers versus any NBA team. However, the Bucks have lost eight of their last nine games ATS.

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