The Bum's Week # 14 NCAAF Championship Week Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Championship Game
December 1, 2010


A program’s renaissance and retribution from early season foibles are at stake this Saturday in the ACC title game between Florida State (9-3 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) and the Hokies at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Virginia Tech (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) comes into this contest with no newfound awe since it’s its fourth trip to event and third in four years. In fact, the Hokies no doubt expect to win their third ACC title in four seasons after making short work of Boston College in 2007 and 2008.

The Seminoles actually captured the first ACC title game 27-22 against Virginia Tech in 2005. Since then, Florida State hasn’t really been close to winning the Atlantic Division. And they still needed Maryland’s help against the Wolfpack to win the title this season for Jimbo Fisher.

When it comes to the sportsbooks, they’re siding with the Hokies by making them four-point favorites with a total of 52. Gamblers that want to back the Garnet and Gold to pick up the outright win can cash in on a plus-155 (risk $100 to win $155) money line wager.

Expectations weren’t terribly high in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher was finally taking over for an icon in Bobby Bowden. And it sure did look like Bowden had almost successfully ran the program into the ground in his last four seasons at the helm. All Fisher has done is post a solid mark in his first campaign, guiding the Seminoles embarrass both Miami and Florida in the same year. That alone should make any FSU fan happy.

Florida State has been quite effective on the attack this season, averaging 31.7 points per game. They’ve been able to find the end zone this season because of a strong running trio of Chris Thompson, Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas. That group has helped the ‘Noles average 177.4 yards per game on the ground this year. But Thomas is out indefinitely with a knee injury and Jones is listed as “questionable” with an ankle problem.

The loss of two good running backs means that Christian Ponder will be called upon to move the ball with his arm. Ponder has had his brain cramps on occasion this season, but his body of work is good: 62.2 completion percentage, 2,038 yards and 20 touchdowns. Although, he did reinjure his elbow last week against the Gators, so it will be interesting to see how Ponder fares under center.

VegasInsider.com’s Bruce Marshall doesn’t believe that Ponder has to shoulder the entire burden because of Florida State’s defense. “You have to acknowledge the positives Jimbo Fisher has brought to FSU, especially adding Mark Stoops as defensive coordinator. Marshall continues, “All he has done is change the personality of the ‘Noles stop unit that had gone soft the past couple of years. Florida State now has a real pass rush this season and has won a few games with their defense, which I see as the major difference from the past couple of years.”

The Seminoles don’t get scored on too much this season, ranking 11th in the nation with 17.8 PPG allowed. But where Stoops has really made this defense become a force is against the run. Last year, the ‘Noles were 108th in rush defense by giving up 204.6 YPG. They’re allowing 123.7 YPG to rank 23rd in the nation.

For Florida State to succeed in this game, they’ll need that defense to come up huge against the Hokies’ running game. Virginia Tech has been extremely strong running the ball this season, averaging 211.4 rushing YPG. That ability to move the ball on the ground has helped out a lot in the red zone, where the Hokies have scored 90 percent of the time. Of course it helps when you have a running back duo like Darren Evans (748, 10 TDs) and David Wilson (573, 5 TDs). And that doesn’t take Tyrod Taylor’s attributes into account.

“I think this is the best offense Beamer has ever had with the Hokies, as Tyrod Taylor has matured into a true leader as a senior, reducing his mistakes and making plays when needed. Taylor's ability to escape can negate some of Stoops' pressure tactics; FSU will be reluctant to blitz, which it has done effectively most of this season,” says Marshall. Our expert handicapper Marshall speaks the truth on Taylor this season. All Virginia Tech’s signal caller has done is throw for 2,258 yards, run for another 613 yards and has scored 24 total touchdowns.

Those numbers are a far cry from what everyone thought might happen to the Hokies after opening the 2010 campaign with losses to Boise State and a stunner to a James Madison squad that is having a less-than-stellar season in the Football Championship Subdivision. But those setbacks have helped Virginia Tech become a covering machine. All they’ve done since losing to the Dukes is go 10-0 SU and a fantastic 9-1 ATS. And these weren’t close covers for Frank Beamer’s squad…oh, no…they’ve been covering as at least a 20-point fave on five occasions.

Even though the Seminoles won the opening ACC Championship Game, this contest has largely been the domain of the Coastal Division winners, evidenced by a 3-0 SU and ATS run over the last three seasons.

Pouring a little more water on Florida State’s flame is the fact that underdogs have failed to cover the past three title games, while the ‘over’ has gone 2-1.

The Hokies simply don’t lose much when favored against ACC foes, having posted a 23-3 SU mark over the last three seasons. And gamblers have consistently covered the number when playing those same league opponents as they’re 17-9 ATS.

As strong as those numbers are, Florida State is just as capable as an underdog. The Seminoles have gone 5-3 SU and ATS when posted as pups in ACC affairs dating back to 2007. What is even more impressive is that the ‘over’ cashed tickets in all eight of those games.

Don’t forget that you can catch this game on ESPN at 7:45 p.m. EST.

[StarDust Bum]

Last Call in the Big XII
December 2, 2010


National championship hopes used to be on the line on a yearly basis when the Sooners and Cornhuskers would meet up back in the days of the Big Eight Conference. Nebraska (10-2 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) now has one last chance to knock Oklahoma out of the BCS when they meet up for the final Big XII title game at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EST on ABC.

Forgive Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) fans for thinking they own this title game because they damn near do. The Sooners will be in their eighth appearance of the 15 championship tests the Big XII has had since 1996. OU has gone 6-1 in those past seven spots, which includes winning the last three trips by a combined score of 121-45.

The Huskers weren’t expected to have a shot in hell against Texas in last year’s title game, but came within a controversial call of the upset in a 13-12 setback as 14 ½-point underdogs. The loss has knocked Nebraska down to a 2-3 record in the Big XII Championship.

Nebraska was expected to be a favorite to win the Big XII this season and really had no problems in clinching the North Division. Yet the betting shops are not banking on them to win this Saturday night by installing the Sooners as 3 ½-point favorites at the start of the week with a total of 54. Since Monday, Oklahoma has been posted as a 6 ½-point “chalk” before moving back down to the current line of -4 ½.

So why were there so many moves on the spread in just a matter of a few days? It all comes down to who will be under center for the Cornhuskers.

Taylor Martinez helped Bo Pelini restore the option offense that many have come to expect out of any Nebraska team. This offense has averaged 33.8 points per game and is gobbling up yards on the ground by the tune of 269.2 rushing yards per game. Martinez himself is picking up 97.4 rushing YPG and 12 scores with 143.5 YPG through the air. It also doesn’t hurt that Roy Helu was there to take the ball from the young signal caller, gaining 1,120 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns.

Last week the Cornhuskers were without Martinez’s services as he was laid up with a sprained right ankle. They didn’t need him against Colorado, evidenced by a 45-17 thrashing as 17 ½-point home favorites. Cody Green was moderately successful as a replacement for Martinez, completing 10-of-13 passes for 80 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Running back Rex Burkhead also showed a little something while in the wildcat formation with two completions that both went for touchdowns.

As good as the outcome was for Nebraska last Friday, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall isn’t sold on what they’re doing at the quarterback position. “Some weird elements to this game and the toughest of the conference title games to read, at least in my book. The toughest thing to determine is the QB situation for the Cornhuskers. And despite the positive Colorado effort, Bo Pelini might have to be relying upon the guys who improved so inadequate a year ago if Martinez isn't available. It was Martinez' dynamism that changed the equation for this year's Husker team.”

The issue under center has been a problem for the sportsbooks as well. Mike Pierce of Sportsbook.com informs us that if Martinez is in the lineup, OU is a 3 ½-point favorite. With Green running the show, the Sooners come in at -7 or -7 ½.

Regardless of who is calling the plays on the field for Nebraska, they’re going to have a tough go of it against the Sooners’ defense. Oklahoma has allowed the last three teams they’ve faced to complete just 59 percent of their passes for 172.3 YPG, three touchdowns and six interceptions. And even though the Sooners are giving up 152.3 rushing YPG (63rd nationally), stopping any sort of passing game will seriously the Cornhuskers’ best laid plans.

Should the defense work as it plans, then Oklahoma will be a lot more relaxed on the offensive side of the ball. That’s a great thing for QB Landry Jones, who has started to come into his own since replacing Sam Bradford early last season. Jones is No. 2 in passing this season among the nation’s quarterbacks with 3,947 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and completing 66 percent of his throws. Ryan Broyles has been Jones’ top target, leading the nation with 9.6 receptions per game and 115.9 YPG. It should come as no surprise that the Sooners are fourth in the country with 336.3 passing YPG in 2010.

The only thing that has been less than optimal is the running game for the Sooners. And that’s kind of surprising to say with DeMarco Murray gaining 1,053 yards and 14 scores on the ground. But Murray has a knack for being banged up, which is happening this week with a knee injury that has him currently listed as “probable.”

Murray will have one advantage in that Nebraska is damn near shutting down offenses with 144.8 YPG allowed via the air to rank second in the country, while allowing 147.0 rushing YPG. Perhaps more important is the Cornhuskers are penalized just under eight times per game, whereas the Sooners usually see five yellow hankies in a contest. That’s huge when you’re looking to keep an opposing defense on the field. Plus, Nebraska fans already think there is a conspiracy with them getting penalized since they’re leaving for the Big Ten after this game. Just ask one of them about the awesome officiating in the 9-6 loss to Texas A&M.

Marshall also doesn’t buy into what the ‘Huskers are selling on defense. “I do not think the Huskers are quite as intimidating defensively as a year ago, and with Jones looking much more confident on the road the past few weeks, I think OU will score some points.”

Nebraska has its work cut out for them with the fact that the North Division teams are 4-10 SU over the life of this title game. It doesn’t get better for our purposes as they’re 4-9-1 ATS.

The Sooners have enjoyed being favored against Big XII foes, evidenced by a 38-8 SU and 28-18 ATS record over the last five seasons.

This rivalry has been a chalk eater’s paradise as the favorites are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

Fade Alert - Week 14
December 3, 2010

Most of the teams are finished for the regular season, but not all of then. And as the campaign comes to its conclusion, there are still a few teams worth "fading" in college football. So, for the last time in 2010, it’s time for this weekend’s "Fade Alert."

Rutgers...Scarlet Knights fans must be wondering why the football season has to endure for another week. Perhaps because it is sparing them from watching the Rutgers basketball team. Whatever, 2010 has marked a significant step backwards for the Piscataway bunch that has seen its run of five straight bowls come to a crashing conclusion. In the process, some of the shine has come off of the star of HC Greg Schiano, although his reputation still remains pretty good after the resurrection job done at the State University of New Jersey over the past several years. At least no schools figure to be poking around this offseason, inquiring about Schiano’s interest or availability in any openings elsewhere. Still, traditional losing programs can slip back into mediocrity pretty quickly (just ask Wake Forest), and Scarlet Knight backers are worried that the regression of 2010 might signal the beginning of a period of football decline at Rutgers. It was certainly a year in reverse for the offense and soph QB Tom Savage, who endured an ineffective and injury-marred season, eventually relieved by true frosh Chas Dodd, who played to mixed reviews. The offensive line was a mess, having allowed a nation’s-worst 55 sacks heading into the last weekend of play. What was once a formidable defense has allowed 109 points over the past two games. We won’t know until next fall if 2010 was just an aberration and a pause in Rutgers’ ongoing gridiron resurrection, or the beginning of the end of a brief and rare shining era of gridiron glory in New Jersey. This week at West Virginia

Utah State...This was supposed to be the season the Utags got back on the map, perhaps emerging as this year’s version of Idaho in 2009, which appeared from nowhere and ended up playing in a bowl game a year ago. The pieces seemed in place for a revival that could make second-year HC Gary Andersen one of the hot commodities of the coaching ranks. An opening 31-24 loss at Oklahoma did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm, but beneath the surface some cracks were beginning to form at the foundation of the roster. Key injuries to some of the few available playmakers such as RB Robert Turbin and WR Stanley Morrison robbed this year’s USU of the sort of homerun elements that could have really complemented livewire sr. QB Diondre Borel, who was poised to have a breakout campaign. Instead, minus some of those potential gamebreakers at his disposal, Borel regressed, tossing just 8 TD passes and 11 picks entering the finale, vs. 17 TDP and only 4 interceptions a year ago. Without the expected cover from the offense, the defense shipped points alarmingly. And now the whole future of the program looks up in the air, with the WAC further downgraded in coming years due to defections of key members Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, and, apparently, Hawaii. Hardly what we were talking about when we wrote our spring preview eight months ago about an excited bunch of Aggies, expecting a breakthrough season and a first bowl invite since 1997. And now the Utags can only look forward to being possible cannon fodder for an angry Boise State this week on the blue carpet. What a difference a few months can make. This week at Boise State

UCLA or Southern Cal...take your pick. Maybe it’s appropriate that these two finish the season off against each other as they have so many times in the past. Sad, really, to think about what this unique intra-city series was for so many decades. The 79th renewal at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, however, doesn’t figure to be one that anybody is going to recall in future years. It’s arguably one of the least-meaningful games between the two in over 50 years. It’s also only the fifth time in the last 46 years that no bowl will be on the line for either. Of course, SC’s season was effectively over before it began, reduced to rubble by NCAA sanctions that prohibited it from postseason play. A shame, because the Trojans might have fit into the Las Vegas Bowl or return visit to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco had they been eligible. But only on brief occasions did the Trojans look like a finished product under first-year HC Lane Kiffin, who has never given the impression of being too comfortable in this much-scrutinized position.

Even more perplexing is the direction at UCLA, which has been sideways at best ever since native son Rick Neuheisel returned to Westwood in 2008. But this has not turned into a cheery homecoming for Slick Rick, who will miss the postseason for the second time in three years (and the Bruins barely squeezed into the bowl picture a year ago) amid a growing chorus that his regime should be humanely terminated. There has been no progression, just regression, on the field from the Bruins, just 15-21 straight up on Neuheisel’s watch, a record that is 12-21 without three wins over lowly Washington State, and only 11-21 if you include a success over a winless Washington team in 2008. Scattered amid the rubble are a succession of lopsided defeats of the sort once-proud programs such as UCLA should never have to endure. Neuheisel’s Bruins have allowed 50 points or more on three different occasions; this from a program that had allowed such disgrace to happen just once from the end of World War II until 1995. They’ve regressed from the teams of predecessor Karl Dorrell, whose Bruins at least qualified for minor bowls in each of his five years in charge, and are a poor relation to the teams coached by Dorrell predecessor Bob Toledo. The offense has been a mess, and the defense not much better, despite recruiting classes consistently ranked in the top fifteen in the nation. It would be par for the Neuheisel course to rally this week against UCLA’s oldest rival and give Bruins fans some hope that a turnaround is imminent. That’s at least what Neuheisel is hoping the masses will believe. Meanwhile, we can only dream about what used to be in this rivalry, and blame the Bruins for diluting what used to be one of college football’s greatest and most colorful spectacles...USC vs. UCLA. This week Southern Cal at UCLA

UNLV...Even UNLV’s pre-naturally optimistic first-year HC Bobby Hauck has admitted that the current season has carried on an awfully long time for his Rebels, who get to play a 13th game this season because they travel to Hawaii, the final regular-season destination this weekend. Unfortunately, the Rebels have to return to Las Vegas after the game for finals. So much for a bowl-type experience on the islands for UNLV, which instead will be feeling like lambs being led to their slaughter against a high-powered Hawaii team that has outscored its last five foes at Aloha Stadium by a combined 220-66. Combined with the Rebels losing and failing to cover their six road games by an average score of 263-58 and owning one of the lowest-ranked defenses in the country (a hard-to-achieve 117th vs. both the rush and in pass-efficiency defense), and the recipe for a forgettable weekend adjacent to Pearl Harbor exists. This week at Hawaii

Florida Atlantic...There’s been no word from Boca Raton if this might be the end of the line for the only coach the Owls have ever known, Howard Schnellenberger. What we do know is that 2010 has been a major letdown for the pipe-smoking veteran mentor, whose Owls have collapsed amid a collection of shortcomings (can’t run or stop the run, can’t pass or stop the pass...take your pick). Senior QB Jeff Van Camp has endured a few miserable closing acts in his run as the starter, tossing 5 picks in his last two games, ugly losses vs. Texas and Middle Tennessee. The offensive line remains a problem, and the attack has been held to under 300 yards on four different occasions this season. The secondary is banged up and Schnellenberger was almost looking for volunteer DBs for this week’s finale vs. Troy, also likely the last FAU game ever to be played at jerry-rigged Lockhart Stadium, with a new on-campus facility tentatively slated to open next year. Sun Belt sources seem to believe Schnellenberger will at least get one season to coach in the new arena, if for no other reason than he has earned the right to do so as the architect of the program. But he will be going into 2011 off the Owls’ worst Sun Belt mark since 2006, regarding of the result in the final game. This week hosts Troy

[StarDust Bum]

Historically Speaking
December 2, 2010


Each week I dig through an extensive database to bring you a compelling trend for every team playing in college and pro football. Here are historical trends for the first weekend of December for championship weekend in college football. If you need an angle for a game this week, here is a good place to start.

NCAA TRENDS:

Arizona State is 6-2 in the last eight as dogs
Arizona is 18-11 vs. Arizona State since 1981

Illinois is 14-7 in the last 21 road games
Fresno State is 5-19-2 at home since 2006

Miami, OH is 9-6 in the last 15 as dogs
Northern Illinois is 9-2-1 in the last 12 as favorites

Pittsburgh is 16-23 as road favorites since 1991
Cincinnati is 6-0 in the last six as home dogs

Rutgers is 11-18 vs. West Virginia since 1980
West Virginia is 4-8 in the last 12 as double-digit favorites

Connecticut is 1-4 in the last five road games
South Florida is 5-10 at home since 2008

Utah St is 5-1 as dogs of 20 or more since 2009
Boise State is 40-18-2 as home favorites since 1999

Nevada is 6-10 as road favorites since 2007
Louisiana Tech is 9-1 in the last ten as home dogs

USC is 3-9 at UCLA since 1986
UCLA is 23-10 as home underdogs since 1992

Washington is 7-3 vs. Washington State since 2000
Washington State is 13-8 as home dogs since 2005

Oregon is 7-15 vs. Oregon State since 1988
Oregon State is 5-1 S/U at home vs. Oregon since 1998

San Jose State is 2-11-1 in the last 14 road games
Idaho is 6-11 as home favorites since 1999

UNLV is 1-4 vs. Hawaii since 2000
Hawaii is 11-3 as favorites of 20 or more since 2006

Troy is 5-1 vs. Florida Atlantic since 2004
Florida Atlantic is 6-2 as home dogs since 2006

Middle Tennessee State is 4-9 in the last 13 as dogs
Florida Intl is 3-6 at home since 2009

SMU is 9-2 as underdogs since 2009
Central Florida is 12-4-1 as favorites since 2009

Auburn is 5-0 S/U vs. South Carolina since 1996
South Carolina is 11-5 in the last 16 as dogs

Florida State is 9-1 S/U vs. Virginia Tech since 1980
Virginia Tech is 14-3 in the last 17 as favorites

Oklahoma is 5-8 vs. Nebraska since 1992
Nebraska is 19-25-1 as dogs since 1988

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Betting: UConn at South Florida

The Connecticut Huskies have won four straight, with a 4-0 college football spread record. Randy Edsall’s squad puts its streak on the line in Saturday’s road matchup against the South Florida Bulls, who are 3-2 ATS in their last five contests.

Sports books opened South Florida as a one-point home favorite, with early Bulls’ wagers driving the number north to two. NCAA betting shops first set the ‘total’ at 41 ½, which was unchanged on most boards after initial action.

Connecticut’s latest triumph came in last Saturday’s 38-17 win as a 1 ½-point home favorite against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Huskies prevailed despite being penalized nine times for 94 yards.

Huskies running back Jordan Todman notched 175 yards on 31 carries, taking in three touchdowns. The junior injured his shoulder during the game, but is listed as “probable” by Don Best.com to play against South Florida.

Connecticut’s Zach Frazer completed 11-of-24 passes for 121 yards. The senior quarterback found fullback Anthony Sherman for a 16-yard touchdown, giving the Huskies an early 7-0 lead.

The Huskies’ defense allowed 399 yards, grabbing four interceptions and one fumble. Defensive end Jesse Joseph registered the team’s only sack, bringing down Cincinnati’s Zach Collaros in the third quarter.

The lopsided affair’s combined 55 points ducked below the closing ‘total’ of 56, bringing the ‘under’ to 4-1 in the Huskies’ last five games. Connecticut’s offense moved the chains on 9-of-16 third down spots during its 34 minutes of possession.

The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their first five road games, with the ‘over’ also going 1-4. Todman and Co. have scored 14.6 PPG in that span, while allowing 23.8 PPG.

South Florida pulled out a 23-20 overtime win as a 13-point road dog in last Saturday’s battle against the Miami Hurricanes. Bulls quarterback Bobby Eveld ran in a one-yard touchdown with two minutes remaining to tie the game, 17-17, forcing the extra stanza.

Eveld finished with 120 passing yards, completing 8-of-15 attempts. The freshman led his offense to 23 first downs in its 29 minutes with the ball.

South Florida’s Moise Plancher and Demetris Murray united for 143 rushing yards. Plancher recorded a season-high 24 carries, while Murray took in two scores from inside Miami’s 10-yard line.

The Bulls’ defense gave up 353 yards, with 188 coming through the air. South Florida’s Jacquian Williams and Farron Hornes each logged an interception.

The tight battle’s combined 43 points stayed below the 46 ½-point ‘total,’ extending South Florida’s ‘under’ streak to 3-0 in its last three games. The Bulls’ offense converted only 3-of-14 third downs, while being forced to punt ten times.

South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its first six home games, with the ‘over’ also cashing at 2-4. Skip Holtz’ crew has given up a stingy 14.3 PPG in that stretch, while notching 26.8 PPG.

The Bulls are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings against Connecticut, with the ‘total’ splitting at 2-2.

Connecticut won last December’s game between the Big East Conference rivals, 29-27, failing to cover ATS as a 7 ½-point home favorite. Frazer logged 225 passing yards and two touchdowns for the Huskies, who recorded no turnovers.

Saturday’s kickoff is scheduled for 5 p.m. (PT), with ESPN2 providing the national television coverage.

The weather forecast in Tampa calls for a low of 60 degrees with calm winds and a 10-percent chance of rain.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot Hokies face Florida State for ACC Title

The Virginia Tech Hokies incredible comeback story is flying under the radar nationally as they face the Florida State Seminoles for the ACC title on Saturday. The winner will play in the Orange Bowl.

Bookmaker.com has Virginia Tech as four-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 52 points. The Seminoles are plus 155 to win outright in the neutral site of Charlotte, North Carolina.

These teams are very close statistically with Virginia Tech scoring 34.8 PPG and allowing 17.9 PPG. Florida State is at 31.7 PPG and 17.8 PPG respectively.

The Hokies are 10-2 straight-up and 9-3 against the college football spread. Those numbers are impressive by themselves, but even more considering they were 0-2 SU and ATS after losses to Boise State (33-30) and Division I-AA James Madison (21-16). The latter as 33-point home favorites was arguably the most embarrassing defeat in team history.

Coach Frank Beamer’s squad could have folded its tent and gone home or start proving it deserved its preseason No. 10 AP ranking.

The Hokies clearly chose the latter with a 10-game winning streak. The ATS number has been almost as impressive at 9-1. The only failure to ‘cover’ was hosting Georgia Tech on November 4, a 28-21 win as 13-point favorites.

Senior quarterback Tyrod Taylor deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround. He’s gotten lost in the shuffle in the year of high-profile dual-threat quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Denard Robinson. Taylor has thrown for 2,258 yards and 8.82 yards per attempt (13th nationally). He also has 20 touchdowns versus just four interceptions.

Taylor is also second on the Hokies in rushing (613 yards). He’s capable of bigger numbers, but they already have three running backs in Ryan Williams, Darren Evans and David Wilson who would be stars of other teams. Williams missed four earlier games with a hamstring injury, but is now close to 100 percent.

The Hokies running backs will have a challenge against a fast Florida State front-four that paces the nation’s 23rd ranked rushing defense (123.7 YPG).

The Seminoles went 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS in their first year under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. They’re looking for their first conference title since 2005, with Va. Tech most recently winning in 2007 and 2008.

Florida State carries a modest three-game winning streak. The defense has stepped up in wins over Clemson (16-13), Maryland (30-16) and Florida (31-7), helping the ‘under’ go 3-0.

Running back Jermaine Thomas (knee) will miss this game and Ty Jones (ankle) is also questionable. That could put a lot of pressure on leading rusher Chris Thompson to carry the full load.

Quarterback Christian Ponder has a lot of experience as a senior and he’s improved his last four outings with eight touchdowns versus one interception. He aggravated an elbow injury against Florida last week, but will play.

Ponder will be facing a Virginia Tech pass defense that ranks 28th in the country (191.2 YPG). However cornerback Rashad Carmichael (ankle) is questionable after missing last week. The Hokies defense is allowing 12.4 PPG the last five games, helping the ‘under’ go 5-0. Part of the reason was playing some poor offenses.

Florida State is 3-2 SU and ATS on the road this year. Va. Tech is 4-0 SU and ATS in true road games. The Boise State loss (and non cover) came in neutral Landover, Maryland.

These teams split their most recent meetings in 2007 and 2008, with the home team going 2-0 SU and ATS. Florida State upset Virginia Tech in the 2005 conference title game, 27-22 as 14 ½-point ‘dogs. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three meetings.

ESPN will have the kickoff from Bank of America Stadium at 4:45 p.m. (PT). Weather could have a few showers and will be cold, dipping into the 30s.

[StarDust Bum]

Beavers will cover NCAAF spread vs. Ducks

The 114th edition of the‘Civil War’ could end up being one for the ages as the longtime rivalry between the Oregon Ducks and the Oregon State Beavers takes on a whole new level of importance with a trip the BCS National Championship Game on the line for the visiting team. Kickoff from Reser Stadium in Corvallis is set for 12:30 p.m. (ET) and the matchup will be broadcast nationally on ABC.

All Oregon has to do is pass one last test on the schedule to wrap up a perfect season and a trip to the BCS title game January 10 in Glendale, Arizona. The Ducks have cruised through their first 11 games with the exception of a minor hiccup in a 15-13 win over California as an 18 ½ point road favorite. They failed to cover a couple of huge spreads in four other games, leaving them 6-4-1 against the spread this season.

Oregon’s most impressive victory of the season was a 52-31 win over No.4 Stanford in early October as a 6 ½-point home favorite with the total going way ‘over’ 63 ½. Most recently, the Ducks knocked off No. 23 Arizona 48-29, but barely missed covering as a 20 ½-point home favorite. The total went ‘over’ the 64-point line in this game as well.

BetED.com has opened the Ducks as a 16 ½-point favorite for this game and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 64. This is the largest spread for either team in the last 10 years of this series.

Oregon comes into this year’s ‘Civil War” with the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation; averaging an amazing 50.5 points per game. Much of its production revolves around a rushing offense that is averaging 300 yards per game. LaMichael James is currently fourth in the country in rushing with 1,548 yards on 253 carries which equates to an average of 6.1 yards per carry. He also leads the team with 19 rushing touchdowns.

Oregon State’s 2010 season has taken a turn for the worse with losses in four of its last six games. The Beavers would need an improbable victory in this game just to become bowl eligible as they are currently 5-6 SU on the year. They have a better record ATS at 6-4-1 making them a bit more attractive in this game in light of such a high pointspread.

The Beavers' only quality win in the last six weeks was a 36-7 romp over then-No. 20 USC as a three-point home underdog. They also beat Arizona 29-27 earlier in the year as an 8 ½-point road underdog, but losses to UCLA and Washington State tarnished whatever credibility they previously earned as a legitimate threat to win this game.

Oregon State’s defense is ranked 60th in the country in points allowed; giving up an average of 25.9 points per game, and its offense is ranked 80th in scoring; averaging just 24.8 points per game. The only real bright spot for this team has been RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who has 1,097 rushing yards, 267 receiving yards and 16 TD’s.

Oregon is 5-0 SU in five road games this season, but just 2-3 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of its last 10 games overall.

Oregon State is 4-1 SU in five games at home this season, but just 2-2-1 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last five games overall.

Head-to-head, Oregon has won four of the last seven games SU and is also 4-3 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in the last eight games in this series.

Oregon is clearly the better team and barring anything catastrophic should come away with a comfortable win, but covering 16 ½ points could be a stretch playing in a heated rivalry game on the road. Take the Beavers to come away with a shred of dignity in an otherwise dismal season by keeping this one close enough to cover.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/03/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
12/02/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals 2-4-0 33.33% -1200


Saturday, December 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

Rutgers - 12:00 PM ET Rutgers +21 500
West Virginia - Over 45 500

Pittsburgh - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +2 500
Cincinnati - Under 55 500

Southern Methodist - 12:00 PM ET Central Florida -9 500
Central Florida - Over 55 500

Troy - 2:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +5 500
Florida Atlantic - Over 55.5 500

Utah State - 3:00 PM ET Boise State -37.5 500
Boise State - Under 61.5 500

Nevada - 3:00 PM ET Nevada -7.5 500
Louisiana Tech - Over 70 500

Oregon - 3:30 PM ET Oregon State +16.5 500
Oregon State - Over 64 500

Auburn - 4:00 PM ET Auburn -4.5 500
South Carolina - Over 61.5 500

San Jose State - 5:00 PM ET Idaho -14 500
Idaho - Under 57 500

Middle Tennessee St. - 6:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee St. +5 500
Florida International - Over 54 500

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington State +5.5 500
Washington State - Under 54 500

Florida State - 7:45 PM ET Virginia Tech -3.5 500
Virginia Tech - Under 51.5 500

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET South Florida -2.5 500
South Florida - Over 41.5 500

Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET Nebraska +4.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 53 500

Southern California - 10:30 PM ET UCLA +6 500
UCLA - Over 54 500

UNLV - 10:30 PM ET Hawaii -34.5 500
Hawaii - Under 64.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Auburn favored by 5.5 over South Carolina


AUBURN TIGERS (12-0)
vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (9-3)

SEC Championship Game – Georgia Dome – Atlanta
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Auburn -5.5, Total: 61.5

No. 1 Auburn continues to find ways to win, erasing a 24-point deficit at Alabama last week to remain unbeaten on the year. No. 19 South Carolina has not been very consistent, beating Florida and Alabama and also losing to Kentucky, but is currently playing great football with three straight wins by an average margin of 29.7 PPG. These two schools met on Sept. 25 in Auburn as the Tigers outscored the Gamecocks 14-0 in the fourth quarter to win 35-27.

South Carolina had no answers to stopping Cam Newton in that game. Newton completed 16-of-21 passes and accounted for 334 yards (176 rushing 158 passing) and five total touchdowns (three rushing, two passing). Freshman Michael Dyer also rushed for 100 yards that day. And Auburn had no trouble bottling up South Carolina star RB Marcus Lattimore, holding him to 33 yards on 14 carries (2.4 YPC).

Since that contest, both Lattimore and South Carolina’s rushing defense has improved leaps and bounds. Lattimore has 13 touchdowns in his seven games since Auburn and the Gamecocks defense has allowed a meager 76 rushing YPG in eight contests since losing to the Tigers. Lattimore has played well against quality opponents, with all three games of 180+ rushing yards coming against SEC foes (Georgia, Tennessee and Florida). The Gamecocks are fresh off an impressive 29-7 win at Clemson, the same Clemson team that nearly won in Jordan-Hare Stadium in the third week of the season, falling to Auburn 27-24 in overtime.

The Tigers have also played some pretty great football since they beat the Gamecocks, giving away only six turnovers (while forcing 12) in eight games. Newton has thrown for 15 touchdowns and run for 13 scores over this eight-game stretch. Auburn now ranks seventh in scoring offense (41.6 PPG) and eighth in total offense (490 YPG) among all FBS schools. Auburn has also stuffed the run with great efficiency, ranking 10th in the nation in rushing defense (108 YPG). The problem with Auburn is its pass defense which currently ranks 106th in the country, surrendering 255 YPG. Even though South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia is dealing with hurt thumb on his throwing hand and a sore left shoulder, he should be able to move the football through the air. In the last meeting against Auburn, Garcia completed 15-of-21 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns.

Since 1996, Auburn has won all five meetings, including the past four by a touchdown or more. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick Auburn on Saturday:

AUBURN is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was AUBURN 35.1, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 3*).

S CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.The average score was S CAROLINA 18.8, OPPONENT 33.0 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets side with the Under in this game:

Play Under - Any team against the total (S CAROLINA, AUBURN) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. (89-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.5%, +35.1 units. Rating = 2*).