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**StarDust Bum** · 11-30-2010, 07:26 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 13
November 30, 2010

HOUSTON at PHILADELPHIA (Thursday, December 2)... Kubiak "over" 7-4 TY and 9-4 last 13 since late '09. Kubiak also "over" 5-1 last 6 away. Texans had dropped five straight vs. line before covers in last two. Andy Reid "over" 19-10 last 29 on board but note Birds just 2-3 vs. line at Linc TY. Tech edge-"Over," based on team trends.

BUFFALO at MINNESOTA...Vikes 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY. Bills 4-1-1 v. number last 6 TY for Chan and have covered last four as visitor TY. Tech edge-Bills, based on team trends.

CLEVELAND at MIAMI...Browns "over" last 6 and 8 of last 9 TY. Miami "over" 4-1 at home TY and 11-2 "over" as host since '09. Dolphins also 5-13 vs. line last 18 at Sun Life Stadium. Tech edge-"Over" and Browns, based on "totals" trends and Dolphins home woes.

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE...Teams headed in opposite directions with Jags covering last 4 while Titans lose and fail to cover their last 4. JV also "over" 4-1 on road TY and "over" 8-3 overall, now "over" 9-3 since late '09. Titans, however, have mostly had Jags' number lately, covering 4 of last 5 (including mid-October Monday rout at JV) and last 4 vs. Jags at LP Field in Nashville. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jags, based on recent "totals" and team trends.

DENVER at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs in revenge mode after getting whipped at Denver 49-29 on Nov. 14. Last three and 6 of last 7 "over" in series. Josh "over" 12-3 last 15 on board, but Broncos only 1-4 vs. spread away TY, and Chiefs 4-1 vs. spread at Arrowhead TY. Tech edge-"Over" and Chiefs, based on "totals" and team trends.

WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS...Giants have mostly owned Skins lately, winning last 4 SU (3-0-1 vs. line in those games), 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 in series. Giants 4-1-1 vs. line last 6 as series host. G-Men "over" 17-9 since '09 as well. Shan 3-1 as road dog TY. Tech edge-slight to Giants and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at DETROIT...Lions wobbling a bit with no covers last two after 8-1 mark first nine vs. spread this season. Meanwhile, Bears 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 vs. line since bye week. Lovie 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 vs. line away TY and have won and covered handily last two at Ford Field. Tech edge- Bears, based on recent trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at GREEN BAY...Teams don't meet every year, but interestingly the 49ers haven't covered last five meetings since their last cover vs. pack in 2000. Singletary 3-3 vs. line away TY (2-3 as pure visitor) but is 2-0 as dog, upping mark in role as "short" to 6-1 since LY and 9-1 last 10 since late '08. Tech edge-49ers, based on Singletary dog marks.

NEW ORLEANS at CINCINNATI...Saints rolling again, 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Marvin Lewis 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY, and no covers last 4 at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincy 4-10 vs. spread last 14 as host. Tech edge-Saints, based on Cincy negatives.

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY...Bucs have covered their last 5 TY but only one of those at home, note Raheem Morris just 1-3-1 vs. line as host TY and 2-10-1 in role since '09. Road team has covered last 4 in series. Tech edge-Falcons, based on team and series road trends.

OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO...Raiders have now covered last 3 in series, although they still haven't won SU at San Diego since 2002. Bolts had covered 11 of 12 meetings prior to the last three Oakland covers. "Overs" 4-1-1 last six in series. Norv has won and covered last 4 TY, and Bolts 21-9-1 vs. line in reg. season from 8th week forward since Norv arrived in 2007. Since '05, Bolts are also 4-0 SU and vs. line in rare in-season revenge role. Chargers also "over" 12-5 last 17 for Norv. Tech edge-"Over" and Chargers, based on Norv trends.

CAROLINA at SEATTLE...Seahawks 10-5 vs. spread last 14 at Qwest Field though they've dropped last 2 at home. Panthers 3-8 vs. spread in 2010. Tech edge-Seahawks, based on team trends.

DALLAS at INDIANAPOLIS...Cowboys making mild rally, 2-0-1 vs. Line last three thru Thanksgiving game. Note Dallas streaking with eight straight "overs" after Saints game. Tech edge-"Over," based on recent Cowboys "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at ARIZONA...Rams have covered last 3 and 4 of 5 as visitor this season. Cards have covered five of last six in series including last three in desert, but Whisenhunt just 1-4 vs. line at home this season. Last five "under" in series as well. Rams were "under" 15-8 for Spagnuolo before "over" last three in 2010. Tech edge-Rams and slight to "under," based on team and series "totals" trends.

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Ravens have failed to cover last two years at home vs. Steel, but did beat Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh at Heinz Field back on Oct. 3. Ravens at one point had covered 6 of 7 in series, although Steel 3-1-1 vs. line last 5. Tech edge-slight to Steelers, based on recent series trends.

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (Monday, December 6)...Not a lot of definition in results between these two lately, as teams have managed to spilt SU in reg. season three of past four seasons. Neither has been able to record a pointspread sweep in season series since Belichick pulled trick in '05, let's see if Jets can do it this season. Belichick "over" 10-2 last 12 since late LY, while Jets "over" 8-3 TY and 12-4 "over" 16 since late '09. Jets 4-1 vs. line away TY and Rex Ryan 5-1 last 6 as underdog. Belichick 8-6 as home chalk since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jets, based on "toals" and team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-30-2010, 07:27 PM

Failing Favorites
November 30, 2010

After having a losing Thanksgiving day where the preferred public sides and totals went 4-2 between the three NFL games, the Las Vegas sports books were all thinking “here we go again” because they all know how the story typically ends where the mounting risk of those games carry over into Friday and Saturday’s college action and the explode like a powder keg on Sunday with the remaining pro games.

But it didn’t happen this year, the year of the underdog. The sports books did lose as usual on Thanksgiving with Saints saving horrendous losses by getting hooked as 3 ½-point favorites, but the losses stopped there with games going the books way throughout the remaining three days with a final outcome of a large winning day on Sunday.

Many thought the tide had turned and that the cream was rising to the top after a few weeks seeing the favorites cover and play well, but week 12 showed us that this season is still the season of the dogs where favorites went 5-10 for the week and 3-9 on Sunday. For the season, NFL favorites are now 74-93-6 which has equated to 10 winning weeks for the house with only one loss and a push.

To show how good Sunday was for the sports books, the only game the public had a weighted opinion on that won was the Texans 20-0 win over the Titans as 6 ½-point favorites, but Sharp money came in on the Titans late dropping the game to -5 by kickoff. By the end of the day when the remaining public teams lost, even the Texans game turned out to be a winner.

When combining the other public teams like the Steelers, Eagles, Raiders, Ravens, Browns and Giants, who all didn’t cover, it’s easy to see how the sports books raked in all the chips this week. The Steelers led the way as the most lopsided public bet team in ticket counts as a 6 ½-point favorite who took overtime to beat the Bills 19-16 after being comfortably up 13-0 at halftime.

The only other favorites who covered along with the Texans were the Chiefs and Falcons, both games of which were bet with split opinions by the public.

The one area that bettors did fare well with on their favorites were with teasers, but not enough to make a big dent on the sports books overall day. The top teasers plays of the day were with the Giants, Steelers and Ravens.

The Ravens were favored by 7 ½-points and were rolling with a 17-3 lead mid way through the fourth quarter, but with 3 minutes left in the game, the Buccaneers got a back door touchdown and extra point. Another bad beat for the favorite bettor in straight bets and parlays, but a winner on teasers.

The biggest moves of the week were both wins for the Sharp money with the Vikings and Panthers. The Redskins had opened as a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings and quickly dropped after Brad Childress was fired, By Saturday night, the Redskins were still favored by -1, but by Sunday morning the Vikings had closed as the 2-point favorite and won 17-13.

The Browns had opened as 11-point home favorites against the Panthers, but the combination of Brian St.Pierre not starting for the Panthers and Jake Delhomme starting for the Browns had the number drop to -10 and eventually was pushed by money down to -7 ½ by kickoff. The Browns nearly lost straight up thanks to some Delhomme gift wrapped picks to his former team, but were able to hold on for a 24-23 win after John Kasay missed a field goal as time ran out.

The final game of the day, one that looked to be one of the better matchups, between the Chargers and Colts had no real bearing on the days outcome. The only thing the sports books were hoping for was the game to stay under 52 points, which happened as the Chargers befuddled Peyton Manning once again in winning 36-14. Between no outstanding liability from the weekend of games and the public each liking a side equally, this game meant very little, and just slightly more than the irrelevant outcome from Monday night’s Cardinals-49ers game.

I wish I could be optimistic and say the tide is turning for the favorites, but the writing is on the wall. There looked to be a little momentum gained the last two weeks, but it came to a screeching halt in week 12. The only real continuous momentum currently going has been the totals going over the number. Last week was only 8-7, but the trend has been a winner the last few weeks in a row. This week, teams like the Chiefs and Broncos figure to light it up the scoreboard. If Todd Haley has a chance to run it up on Josh McDaniels, he will.

The New Refrigerator
He only weighs 325 pounds, but Chiefs defensive lineman Shaun Smith did go to South Carolina, the same state that produced William Perry, and on Sunday he accomplished a feat that no one had since Perry in 1985 by recording a sack and a rushing touchdown in the same game.

Bears Growl
I’m not sure what was more impressive, the big plays the usual anemic offense of the Bears made against the Eagles, or how the defense bottled up Michael Vick. The Bears did everything right in their home 31-26 win Sunday with a score that isn’t close to indicating the type of dominant effort put forth. Who would have ever thought Chicago would be in first place at this late stage of the season, only one game back for the conference lead.

Spygate 2
Denver coach Josh McDaniels and the Broncos were each fined $50,000 by the league for taping a 49ers practice session in London. Although McDaniels didn’t watch the tape (he should of because it might have helped in their embarrassing loss), the story becomes larger because he was the offensive coordinator when the Patriots had their own famous incidents. When McDaniels explained to his coaching staff the differences between the two matters, he revealed key information that wasn’t released during the Patriots scandal, information that Bill Belichick is sure to not be happy about which could put a strain on their relationship. Once McDaniels is fired from Denver, he will need Belichick’s support and hope that he doesn’t get the cold should like another Belichick disciple, Eric Mangini.

Speaking of Belichick’s disciple’s, he’s not exactly produced a tree of prosperity under his reign like Bill Walsh did when he won his three Super Bowls. In fact, they have all been busts when you look at McDaniels 5-16 record over his last 21 games, Mangini’s 23-25 record with the Jets and 9-18 with Browns, Romeo Crennel’s 24-40 record with the Browns and Charlie Weis going 35-27 at Norte Dame with only three bowl games (1-2) in five seasons.

Johnson-Finnegan Bout
Cortland Finnegan is the best in the league at taking players out of their game and for the second straight year, he got Andre Johnson out of his, and this time out of the game and likely a league suspension. Finnegan is the leader of a defensive team perceived dirty, while some just call them smart. Jeff Fisher teams have always been the first to gouge and poke in piles while the retaliating team gets the penalty. Even though Finnegan didn’t throw any blows like Johnson did, he too could face some league punishment because of an on going deal with him regarding similar situations.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2010, 06:49 PM

Over paying off for double-digit spreads

On several occasions this season, we have pointed out the profitability of wagering on underdogs of 10 points or more. To date, these double-digit ‘dogs are 9-6 ATS (60%) despite going just 2-13 SU (13%). This week, we’ve uncovered an even greater angle for these games – the Over/Under.
In these 15 games, the final score has gone Over the posted total 12 times, including eight in a row since Week 4. That’s an incredible 80% success rate for the season. In half of these 12 games that went Over, the Over was surpassed by a touchdown or more. The average posted total for all 15 games featuring a double-digit spread is 42.5, while the average actual total is 48.5 (Favorite 28.9, Underdog 19.6).

Week 13 presents us with a pair of games with double-digit spreads: San Francisco at Green Bay and Oakland at San Diego.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+10 at Green Bay)
San Francisco is getting 10 points from Green Bay at Lambeau Field. The total is listed at a modest 41.5. Last season, the teams combined to score 54 points when the total was also 41.5 (Green Bay won 30-24 at home). The 49ers are on a bit of a roll, winners of 4-of-6 SU (3-3 ATS) after starting the season a dismal 0-5 SU (2-3 ATS). The FoxSheets offer the following support for the Niners:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (San Francisco) - after playing their last game on the road, in December games. (77-40 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +33 units. Rating = 2*).

OAKLAND RAIDERS (+13.5 at San Diego)
Oakland is a 13.5-point underdog at San Diego, where the Over/Under has been set a bit higher at 46.5. The Raiders have the lowest ATS win percentage both overall (6-17, 26%) and on the road (3-9, 25%) in the month of December over the last five seasons. Conversely, the Chargers have one of the highest December ATS win percentages overall (14-9, 61%). The bolting Bolts are also an incredible 20-3 SU (87%) in that span, trailing only New England (20-2, 90%).While we have conflicting data in terms of who will be the ATS winner in this one, the FoxSheets are armed with angles pointing toward the Over in this pivotal AFC West clash:Play Over - Any team against the total (San Diego) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games. (104-59 since 1983.) (63.8%, +39.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Tom Cable is 8-0 Over (+8.0 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game as the coach of Oakland. The average score was OAKLAND 22.5, OPPONENT 30.6 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2010, 07:05 PM

Texans take on Eagles in Thursday special

Thanks to Indianapolis losing at home this past Sunday night to San Diego, the Houston Texans are just one game out of first place in the AFC South Division.

So Thursday night’s road game at Philadelphia (5:20 PT, NFL Network) is important for the Texans.

That’s bad news for Houston since the Texans seem to play better when out of contention. NFL oddsmakers have more bad news for Houston with Philadelphia favored by a full touchdown. Thursday's total opened at 50½.

The Texans moved their record to 5-6 taking advantage of the ineptness of third-string rookie quarterback Rusty Smith this past Sunday in shutting out Tennessee, 20-0, as five-point home favorites. The combined 20 points fell well ‘under’ the 46 ½-point total.

Philadelphia is tied for first in the NFC East with the New York Giants at 7-4. The Eagles, though, are off a 31-26 road loss to Chicago as three-point favorites. The combined 57 points flew ‘over’ the 41 ½-point total.

It was the first time in six games where Michael Vick started and finished that the Eagles lost. Vick threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns. Vick, however, threw his first interception in four years.

Vick, who spent 1 ½ years in prison for an illegal dog fighting ring, had thrown 238 straight passes without an interception. DeSean Jackson was held to only two receptions for 26 yards against the Bears.

Jackson is Vick’s big-play wide receiver with a 19.8 average on 35 receptions and five touchdown catches. Jeremy Maclin leads the Eagles with 51 catches for eight touchdowns, while averaging 14.7 yards per reception.

Philadelphia also is getting a big year from LeSean McCoy, who has rushed for 779 yards, is averaging 5.0 yards a carry and scored seven touchdowns.

Vick is generating some MVP buzz with a 13-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio while throwing for 1,941 yards and rushing for 419 yards despite missing nearly four games. He’ll be operating against a Texans secondary that ranks 31st in pass defense and was on pace to give up the second-most passing yards in NFL history until drawing Smith and the Titans.

But that’s not the only reason why this matchup has the highest ‘over/under’ on the Week 13 NFL card.

Houston has a top-10 offense featuring the NFL’s leading rusher, Arian Foster. He’s run for 1,147 yards with 13 touchdowns, one behind Kansas City wide receiver Dwayne Bowe for most touchdowns in the NFL.

Quarterback Matt Schaub has a number of dangerous receiving threats, including Foster and Andre Johnson, who dodged a suspension after throwing punches at Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan.

Overshadowed in that fight with Finnegan was Johnson becoming the first player in league history to catch at least 60 passes during each of his first eight seasons.

Foster sparked the Texans past the Titans rushing for 143 yards and catching nine passes. He has gone for at least 100-yards rushing six times this year. The victory against Tennessee was the first time Houston held a foe to fewer than 24 points all season.

Houston is 3-8-2 ATS following a spread cover.

Philadelphia hasn’t been at full strength in its defensive backfield. Cornerback Ellis Hobbs is lost for the season with a neck injury, while Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel missed last Sunday with a knee injury.

Samuel has missed two games this season. It’s probably not a coincidence that in those two games the opposing quarterbacks, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith, had their finest efforts combining for 556 passing yards with a seven-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio. Samuel is ‘questionable.’

The ‘over’ has cashed in six of the Eagles’ last seven games. The ‘over’ has cashed in three of Houston’s past four games.

The teams last met in 2006 with the Eagles winning 24-10 at Houston.

The weather forecast is for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 30s and 12 mph winds.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2010, 07:09 PM

Colts host Cowboys in NFL betting clash

If there were ever a time to push the panic button, now would be that time for the Indianapolis Colts. There are just five games left to their 2010 season, and unless they want to add to the list of teams that lost the Super Bowl one year and failed to make the playoffs the next, they might be in a must-win NFL betting affair against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Field.

Yes, if the playoffs started today, Peyton Manning and company would be watching from the couch. Indianapolis would lose the tiebreaker in the AFC South standings to the Jacksonville Jaguars and would be nowhere near claiming one of the two Wild Card bids to the second season that the conference has to offer.

Back-to-back losses really have Indy reeling, especially knowing that Manning looks very un-Peyton Manning-like at the moment. "The Sheriff" has tossed seven INTs over these last two games, and nine picks in his last four, giving him 11 on the season.

What we still have to remember though, is that this is Peyton freaking Manning. The man has thrown for 3,344 yards and 22 TDs, and no one knows how to pick apart a defense at the line of scrimmage before the ball is ever snapped like good old No. 18 does.

Getting some players healthy would really help, though. As of Wednesday, running backs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart plus wide receiver Austin Collie are all listed as questionable with various ailments, while starting linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett are probably both still out of the lineup as well.

These injuries are clearly taking their toll on the Colts right now. Manning has only had one other skill player on offense, WR Reggie Wayne, that has played in all 11 games. Eight different receivers and tight ends have been in the starting lineup at least once this year, while four different running backs have had their hands on the pigskin at least 25 times. Only Wayne and TE Jacob Tamme have even played in all 11 games with Manning, and no other offensive skill player has appeared in more than nine games.

Dallas quarterback Jon Kitna is going to have his work cut out for him in this one, but the job can't be all that much more difficult than it was last week when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints came to town on Thanksgiving Day. Kitna threw for 313 yards that day and clearly had the Saints dead to rights if not for the inopportune fumble by Roy Williams on the pass play that should have iced the game.

Since replacing the injured QB Tony Romo, Kitna has had three games with at least 310 yards passing and two with less than 190.

Defensively, the Cowboys are still a wreck, as they rank No. 30 in the league in scoring at 27.4 PPG against.

These two teams don't square off all that often, but when they do, the edge normally goes to the Colts. Indy has won three of the last four in this series both SU and ATS, but the one time the Cowboys pulled off the 'W' was in the last meeting in "Big D," a 21-14 win in '06.

This is only the fourth all-time meeting between the teams in Indianapolis, and the only time the Cowboys won a game here was in 1993, a 27-3 victory.

Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played on field turf, and especially off of that horrifying loss last week to the San Diego Chargers, there is plenty of reason to expect the Colts to get some revenge in this Sunday's matchup. They are 5 ½-point choices of the oddsmakers at BookMaker.com, while the 'total' chimes in at 47½.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:50 PM

Tampa Bay 3-point home dogs to Atlanta

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in a critical NFC South battle on FOX. The Falcons have the best NFL betting record in the NFC at 9-2 while the Bucs are two games back at 7-4.

If the Bucs want to make the playoffs they really need to beat a good team and this game at home on Sunday is their next chance.

Atlanta is a three-point favorite with a total of 44½ at *** Global.

The Atlanta Falcons are 9-2 and leading the division but they do have their next three games on the road where they are not nearly as good as they are in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won a huge game last week against Green Bay that gave them the top record in the NFC and they are now tied for the best record in the NFL odds.

The Falcons have now won five straight games overall which is their longest winning streak since 1998 when they made the Super Bowl. If the Falcons want to make the Super Bowl this season they need to have home field advantage because quarterback Matt Ryan is 19-1 all-time in the Georgia Dome. Winning this week at Tampa Bay would be a big step toward staying in front of New Orleans and Chicago. The Falcons lead both teams by just one game for the top record in the NFC.

Tampa Bay had a chance to beat Atlanta in the Georgia Dome back in early November but lost, 27-21. The Bucs were stopped at the goal line with just over two minutes remaining and Atlanta held on. It was the fourth straight win for the Falcons in the series.

The Bucs simply have not been able to beat good teams this season. Last week they lost to Baltimore and the Bucs are now 0-4 this season against teams with winning records.

Here are the football betting stats for Sunday’s game:

•The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
•Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite.
•The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings against Tampa Bay.
•The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
•Tampa Bay is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games.
On the NFL totals board, the 'under' is 4-0 in the Falcons' last four December games. The 'over' is 5-1 in Atlanta's last six games overall while the 'under' is 9-2 in the Falcons' last 11 games as a road favorite.

The 'under' is 4-1 in the Buccaneers' last five games as a home underdog and 13-5 in their last 18 games overall. The 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:51 PM

NFL Odds Preview: Steelers look for revenge at Ravens

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 2-1 NFL spread record in their three games against AFC North Division foes, allowing 16 points per game in that stretch. Mike Tomlin’s squad travels east for Sunday night’s clash with the Baltimore Ravens, who pulled out a 17-10 win as two-point road dogs in an Oct. 3 battle against the Steelers.

Sports books opened Baltimore as a three-point road favorite in the matchup, initially receiving mixed action. NFL Betting shops first set the ‘total’ at 39 ½, with early ‘over’ wagers lifting the number north a half-point to 40.

Pittsburgh squeaked out a 19-16 overtime win as a 6 ½-point road favorite in last Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers jumped out to an early 13-0 lead but were forced to extra minutes thanks to Buffalo’s Rian Lindell tying the duel, 16-16, with a 49-yard field goal at the end of regulation.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 20-of-33 passes for 246 yards. The 28-year-old is presently listed as “probable” against Baltimore due to a sprained foot, according to the DonBest.com injury report.

Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall rushed for a season-high 151 yards on 36 carries. The Illinois native scored his squad’s sole touchdown with a one-yard run in the first quarter.

The Steelers’ defense allowed 329 yards, with 255 coming through the air. Safety Troy Polamalu grabbed an interception for a second straight game, while linebackers James Harrison and James Farrior each logged one sack.

The lengthy battle’s combined 35 points stayed south of its 43 ½-point ‘total,’ extending Pittsburgh’s ‘under’ streak to 2-0 in its last two games.

Roethlisberger guided the Steelers to 28 first downs, controlling the ball for 45 of the game’s 73 minutes.

Pittsburgh improved to 3-3 ATS in its first six road games, with the ‘total’ also moving to 3-3. Polamalu and Co. have allowed 295.5 YPG in that stretch, with a stingy 57.2 YPG coming through the ground.

Baltimore escaped with a 17-10 win as a 7 ½-point home favorite in last Sunday’s battle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Ravens allowed Tampa Bay’s Kellen Winslow to reach the end zone with 3:05 remaining, giving the Buccaneers an ATS cover by a ‘hook.’

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco notched 289 passing yards, connecting on 25-of-35 attempts. The New Jersey native threw for two touchdowns, finding wide out Derrick Mason and tight end Todd Heap.

Baltimore’s Ray Rice finished with a combined 132 yards of rushing and receiving. The three-year running back logged a season-low 20 yards on eight carries against Pittsburgh, two months ago.

The Ravens’ defense gave up 263 yards en route to forcing nine punts by the Buccaneers. Linebacker Ray Lewis finished with a team-high seven tackles, failing to log a sack for a fourth straight game.

The tight affair’s combined 27 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 41. Both squads united for 13 penalties, moving the ball 108 yards.

Baltimore dropped to 2-3 ATS in its first five home games, with the ‘under’ also moving to 2-3. John Harbaugh’s crew has scored 27 PPG in that span, while allowing 17.6 PPG.

Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five meetings against the Ravens, with the ‘total’ going 2-2-1.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 5:20 p.m. (PT), with NBC providing the national television coverage. The weather forecast in Baltimore calls for a low of 33 degrees, with 20 mph winds and a 10-percent chance of rain.

Pittsburgh returns home for next Sunday’s duel with the Cincinnati Bengals, while Baltimore visits the Houston Texans one day later for a Monday night matchup.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:52 PM

Week 13 NFL Picks: Bears over Lions

The Denver Broncos of 2010 are a little like a Megan Fox movie. Awful in nearly every respect but with one vital saving grace.

In the case of the movies, the saving grace is the fantastic Miss Fox herself, of course. In the case of the Broncos it’s Kyle Orton and the passing game – a passing game that is integral to the rationale behind the first bet of the week.

Denver is an eight point underdog at Kansas City but the real value bet here is to bet 'over' a total of 48½ points. Kansas City has been scoring a lot of points lately but the Chiefs offense is vulnerable to the pass.

Denver has the fourth ranked passing offense in the nation. This is partly because the Broncos have to pass, being behind so often, but the advantage is that it also means they can rack up scores quickly and that’s good for Over bettors. This one could go like a college game – 42-28, something like that. 'Over' 48½ total points at Sports Interaction when Denver visits Kansas City is the first bet of the week.

A game where I don’t see the scoreboard lighting up is Atlanta’s visit to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers haven’t had any signature wins this year. Although promising, when the time has come for the Bucs to drive the blade home they’ve come up short. That said, Tampa Bay plays tough on every down and doesn’t roll over.

Atlanta is the best team in the NFC right now, but it’s not a light ‘em up team like New Orleans last year or the 16-0 Patriots. The Falcons’ first rule is not to beat themselves. So, between a Tampa Bay team that’s limited but dogged and an Atlanta team that’s talented but dogged, I don’t expect a shootout. 'Under' 44½ total points at Sports Interaction when Atlanta visits Tampa Bay is the second NFL pick of the week.

Finally, Sports Interaction had to suspend betting on Chicago at Detroit when the line was originally posted as Chicago minus 3½ because money came storming in on the Bears. That line will be reposted at minus 4 or 4½ and when it is, take it.

The Bears have arrived. Chicago’s beatdown of Philadelphia at Soldier Field last Sunday as a home underdog means that it’s time to start believing in Chicago. Mike Martz has adjusted his offense to fit the talent at his disposal and the mercurial Jay Cutler seems set to finally deliver on his promise.

The Lions won at Soldier Field in Week 1 but have devolved since – quarterback Matt Stafford is out with a shoulder injury, they can’t run the ball, the secondary is soft and the Bears will want to put the record straight after losing straight up to the Lions at home in first week of the season. Chicago minus 4-4½ at Detroit with Sports Interaction is the third pick of the week.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:53 PM

NFL Betting Preview: Redskins at Giants

Washington and New York meet for the first time this season in a matchup of two NFC East teams vying to stay in the postseason chase. The Redskins (5-6 straight up, 5-5-1 against the NFL spread) have been outscored this season by 47 points (262-215), but can remain in the playoff hunt with a road victory.

New York (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) is tied with Philadelphia atop the division standings. The Giants have outscored their opposition by 37 points (277-240), and lead the league in pass defense by allowing just 186.4 yards per game.

These two rivals conclude the regular season against each other Jan. 2 in Washington.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened New York as a seven-point home ‘chalk’ over Washington, with the total set at 43 ½. FOX Sports will provide coverage of Sunday’s NFC East matchup beginning at 10 a.m. PT from New Meadowlands Stadium.

Washingto Redskins dropped to 1-3 SU and ATS its last four games after falling to Minnesota last weekend as a one-point home underdog, 17-13. The combined 30 points never seriously threatened the 43 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.

The Redskins made things interesting with a pair of fourth-quarter field goals, but ended the game trailing the Vikings in first downs (17-10), rushing yards (137-29), turnovers forced (1-0) and time of possession (33:05-26:55).

Quarterback Donovan McNabb was 21-of-35 passing for 211 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back James Davis paced an anemic ground game with six carries for 11 yards, while tight end Chris Cooley caught five passes for 49 yards.

New York snapped a two-game SU losing skid by upending Jacksonville last weekend as an eight-point home favorite, 24-20. The combined 44 points slithered ‘over’ the 43 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 5-1 the previous six games. The Giants have now failed to cover their last three outings.

New York Giants managed a field goal in each of the first three quarters before exploding for 15 points in the fourth quarter. The Giants prevailed despite trailing the Jaguars in first downs (26-17), total plays (73-50), rushing yards (207-135) and time of possession (35:27-24:33). New York did force a pair of turnovers (one fumble, one interception), while not coughing up the ball.

Signal caller Eli Manning was 14-of-24 passing for 226 yards with two touchdowns, while his favorite target was tight end Kevin Boss who caught three passes for 74 yards and a score. Running back Brandon Jacobs led the ground game with 14 carries for 87 yards in the victory.

New York has won the previous four meetings with Washington SU, while posting a 3-0-1 ATS ledger. The Giants swept last year’s season series as a six-point home ‘chalk,’ 23-17, and as a one-point road favorite, 45-12. The ‘over’ cashed in both meetings, ending a string of four straight ‘under’ outings. The Redskins are 6-2-1 ATS their last nine road games. New York has seen the ‘over’ go 13-3 its past 16 games versus NFC East opponents, and the ‘over’ is also 8-2 its previous 10 home games.

Washington linebacker Rocky McIntosh (thigh) and guard Derrick Dockery (knee injury) are ‘probable’ versus the Giants, while free safety LaRon Landry (Achilles) is ‘doubtful.’ Running back Ryan Torain (hamstring) and cornerback Carlos Rogers (hamstring) are ‘questionable.’ The Redskins follow this contest with a home game against Tampa Bay.

New York wide receivers Hakeem Nicks (leg) and Steve Smith (pectoral) are expected to miss this matchup with the Redskins. Cornerback Aaron Ross (back), running back Ahmad Bradshaw (lower body), center Shaun O’Hara (foot), guard Shawn Andrews (back) and cornerback Will Blackmon (chest) are ‘questionable.’ The Giants’ next game will be at Minnesota before returning home to tackle Philadelphia.

Sunday’s forecast for East Rutherford, New Jersey calls for partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of precipitation, with a high of 44 degrees and a low of 30.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:55 PM

Jaguars visit Titans in key NFL odds clash

Kerry Collins is an over-the-hill, 38-year-old backup with a quarterback rating of less than 80.

Collins, though, is the key now to turning around Tennessee’s season. The Titans have lost and failed to cover their last four games, dropping to 5-6 straight up on the season but still very much in the AFC South race.

Collins has missed the last two games due to a calf injury. But following Vince Young being lost for the season with a thumb injury and not-ready-for-prime-time rookie Rusty Smith stinking up the joint last week, Collins is being counted on to restore order.

The Titans host Jacksonville at 10 a.m. PT Sunday in an AFC South Division matchup. Collins returned to practice Wednesday and is expected to start. Oddsmakers are being cautious as currently there is no line on the matchup.

Collins’ touchdown-to-interception is just five-to-three, but he’s Joe Montana compared to the befuddled Smith, who was 17-of-31 for 138 yards with three interceptions and a 26.7 passer rating in a 20-0 road loss this past Sunday to Houston.

The Titans were five-point underdogs. The combined 20 points went well ‘under’ the 46 ½-point total. It was the first time this season that the 31st-ranked Texans defense held an opponent to fewer than 24 points.

Smith’s inefficiency affected star running back Chris Johnson as he was held to a career-low five yards on seven carries.

Jacksonville had its season-high three-game winning streak snapped this past Sunday by the New York Giants, 24-20. The Jaguars did cover for the fourth straight time as they were 7 ½-point ‘dogs. The combined 44 points just went ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total.

Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 113 yards in the loss, the fourth time in a row he’s rushed for triple-digits. Quarterback David Garrard suffered a left wrist injury, but is expected to start against Tennessee. Garrard may get his main pass blocker back as left tackle Eugene Monroe practiced after missing the Giants matchup with a concussion.

The Jaguars have won five of their past eight to draw even with Indianapolis in the AFC South at 6-5. The Titans are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times they’ve faced an opponent with a winning mark.

The Jaguars defeated the Colts at home, 31-28, in Week 4 on a 59-field goal by Josh Scobee at the gun and three weeks ago shocked the Texans, 31-24, on a Hail Mary touchdown pass on the final play.

The Titans have covered in four of the last five meetings against the Jaguars, including pounding them, 30-3, on Oct. 18 as three-point road favorites. Collins took advantage of a porous Jacksonville secondary to complete 11-of-16 passes and a touchdown in replacement of Young. Johnson ran for 111 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars have revamped their secondary since then. There’s an outside possibility the Titans could get back Kenny Britt, who leads Tennessee in receiving touchdowns with seven. He’s missed the past four games with a hamstring injury.

The Titans have beaten the Jaguars during each of the past two years at LP Field - 30-13 last year as three-point favorites and 17-10 two years ago as three-point underdogs. Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Tennessee. The Jaguars also are 1-5 ATS during their past six December games.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five in the series. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Jacksonville’s past six road contests. The ‘over’ has cashed in six of Tennessee’s last eight home games.

The Titans could have added emotion as Mike Heimerdinger, their offensive coordinator, was expected to temporarily leave the team to begin cancer treatment.

Temperatures for the game are expected to be in the 30s with a 10 percent chance of rain and six mph winds.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:56 PM

Colts host Cowboys in NFL betting clash

If there were ever a time to push the panic button, now would be that time for the Indianapolis Colts. There are just five games left to their 2010 season, and unless they want to add to the list of teams that lost the Super Bowl one year and failed to make the playoffs the next, they might be in a must-win NFL betting affair against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Field.

Yes, if the playoffs started today, Peyton Manning and company would be watching from the couch. Indianapolis would lose the tiebreaker in the AFC South standings to the Jacksonville Jaguars and would be nowhere near claiming one of the two Wild Card bids to the second season that the conference has to offer.

Back-to-back losses really have Indy reeling, especially knowing that Manning looks very un-Peyton Manning-like at the moment. "The Sheriff" has tossed seven INTs over these last two games, and nine picks in his last four, giving him 11 on the season.

What we still have to remember though, is that this is Peyton freaking Manning. The man has thrown for 3,344 yards and 22 TDs, and no one knows how to pick apart a defense at the line of scrimmage before the ball is ever snapped like good old No. 18 does.

Getting some players healthy would really help, though. As of Wednesday, running backs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart plus wide receiver Austin Collie are all listed as questionable with various ailments, while starting linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett are probably both still out of the lineup as well.

These injuries are clearly taking their toll on the Colts right now. Manning has only had one other skill player on offense, WR Reggie Wayne, that has played in all 11 games. Eight different receivers and tight ends have been in the starting lineup at least once this year, while four different running backs have had their hands on the pigskin at least 25 times. Only Wayne and TE Jacob Tamme have even played in all 11 games with Manning, and no other offensive skill player has appeared in more than nine games.

Dallas quarterback Jon Kitna is going to have his work cut out for him in this one, but the job can't be all that much more difficult than it was last week when Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints came to town on Thanksgiving Day. Kitna threw for 313 yards that day and clearly had the Saints dead to rights if not for the inopportune fumble by Roy Williams on the pass play that should have iced the game.

Since replacing the injured QB Tony Romo, Kitna has had three games with at least 310 yards passing and two with less than 190.

Defensively, the Cowboys are still a wreck, as they rank No. 30 in the league in scoring at 27.4 PPG against.

These two teams don't square off all that often, but when they do, the edge normally goes to the Colts. Indy has won three of the last four in this series both SU and ATS, but the one time the Cowboys pulled off the 'W' was in the last meeting in "Big D," a 21-14 win in '06.

This is only the fourth all-time meeting between the teams in Indianapolis, and the only time the Cowboys won a game here was in 1993, a 27-3 victory.

Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played on field turf, and especially off of that horrifying loss last week to the San Diego Chargers, there is plenty of reason to expect the Colts to get some revenge in this Sunday's matchup. They are 5 ½-point choices of the oddsmakers at BookMaker.com, while the 'total' chimes in at 47½.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 06:57 PM

Jets at Patriots in Monday Night Football betting showdown

The New York Jets and New England Patriots have played each other 100 times during the regular season. None of those games is as big as Monday night’s matchup in New England.

Not only is first place at stake in the AFC East standings between the Jets and Patriots, both of whom are 9-2, but also potential playoff seeding. The winner becomes the front runner for the No. 1 seed, while the loser could fall all the way to being the No. 5 seed.

Game time is 5:30 PT with ESPN televising. New England currently is minus 3 ½ with the ‘over/under’ at 45 ½.

The weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s with a 20 percent chance of snow and winds in the 11 mph range.

“It’s the marquee game of the year,” Jets coach Rex Ryan said. Ryan can be blustery but he’s on the mark here.

Right now the Jets hold the tiebreaker based on their 28-14 Week 2 win against the Patriots as three-point home underdogs. The combined 42 points went ‘over’ the 39 ½-point total.

The Patriots have gone 8-1 since that defeat. New England’s youthful defense has shown improvement and Tom Brady is having another masterful season with a 23-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Brady was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in leading the Patriots past Detroit, 45-24, on Thanksgiving as six-point road favorites. He was 21-for-27 for 341 yards and four touchdowns against the Lions with a passer rating of 158.3.

New England has won 25 consecutive regular season home games with Brady under center. The Patriots are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½-to-10 points.

The Jets did beat the Patriots at Foxboro two years ago when Matt Cassel was replacing an injured Brady. The Jets were third in total defense entering the weekend, fourth in scoring defense yielding 17 points a game and ranked No. 2 in rushing averaging 148.1 yards per game on the ground behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene.

The Patriots have won 12 of the last 16 in the series. The Jets, though, have won eight straight road games, including all five of their away matchups this season. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 road contests. The Jets also are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games at New England.

The Jets didn’t have Santonio Holmes when they defeated the Patriots earlier this season. Holmes has proven to be Mr. Clutch after missing the first four games due to a league suspension. He has helped pull out four victories with decisive plays in the final minute or in overtime.

The Jets just squeaked past Detroit and Cleveland in overtime and needed a touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez to Holmes in the final 10 seconds to defeat Houston. The Jets rolled past Cincinnati last week, 26-10, as 10-point home favorites.

Sanchez and Holmes will try to take advantage of a Patriots defense that entered Week 13 ranked 31st giving up 399.1 yards per game. The Patriots were last in pass defense allowing 288.5 yards through the air.

Injuries have forced Patriots coach Bill Belichick to start a pair of rookie cornerbacks, Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington. The Jets rated 18th in passing yards at 213.5 yards per game. Sanchez has thrown 16 touchdown passes, but is completing just 55 percent of his passes and has been picked off eight times.

The Jets are banged-up although wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery (groin), offensive right tackle Damien Woody and defensive back Dwight Lowery (concussion) all hope to be able to play.

The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of the Jets’ last 10 games. New England has gone ‘over’ in its last five games. The ‘over’ has cashed during nine of the past 11 times the Patriots have met an AFC foe.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2010, 07:01 PM

PRO GAME OF THE YEAR # 2

GOY RECORD NFL 1 - 0

Sunday, December 5Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +4.5 500 ( GOY # 2 )
Miami

**StarDust Bum** · 12-04-2010, 10:44 AM

Peterson expected to play vs. Buffalo

BUFFALO BILLS (2-9)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-7)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Minnesota -5.5, Total: 44.5

Buffalo tries to regroup after its heart-breaking overtime loss to Pittsburgh when it travels to injury-laden Minnesota on Sunday. Bills WR Steve Johnson dropped a wide-open touchdown pass in OT in their 19-16 loss to the Steelers. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is listed as questionable on the injury report with a sprained ankle, but head coach Leslie Frazier expects him to play on Sunday and get a full workload of carries. The prognosis is not as optimistic for WR Percy Harvin who will be a game-time decision due to migraines.

******* take:
With the Bills ranked last in the NFL in rush defense (167 YPG), Peterson should still have a big day despite his injury. Peterson ranks third in the NFL with 1,016 rushing yards, but he does not have a 100-yard effort since Week 7, a span of five games. Brett Favre (10 TD, 17 INT) has a slew of injuries, including shoulder, neck and ankle woes, but he will once again start Sunday. Favre will have his third-best wide receiver, Bernard Berrian, available after Berrian missed last week’s game with a groin injury. If Harvin (51 rec., 627 yds, 4 TD) cannot play, Favre will throw more balls in Sidney Rice’s direction. Rice has been targeted 14 times in his two games, but only has four receptions.

With Minnesota ranked fifth in the league in rushing defense (93 YPG), Buffalo should look to air it out on Sunday. Ryan Fitzpatrick has 19 TD and 10 INT this season and has thrown for at least 220 yards in seven of his nine games this year. Despite Johnson’s game-losing drop last week, he still has nine touchdowns and at least five catches in six of his past seven games.

Minnesota is 7-4 all-time versus Buffalo, but the Bills have won the past two meetings (45-39 in 2002 and 17-12 in 2006). The Bills are also 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games this season. This FoxSheets trend expects Buffalo to cover the spread again on Sunday.

Play On - Road teams (BUFFALO) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season. (33-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets expect this game to go Under the total.

MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 21.9, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 2*).

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