The Bum's Week 12 NFL Best Bets + More !

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NFL trends: First 5 games/Last 5 games


With all of the bye weeks out of the way, all teams have now played exactly 10 games. We took this opportunity to break down how teams fared over their first five games versus their last five games to look for any trends.
Five teams made it through their first five games with just one loss ATS:
4-1 Detroit
4-1 Kansas City
4-1 N.Y. Jets
4-1 Pittsburgh
3-1-1 Washington

From this group, only the Lions have been able to remain a solid proposition, going 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games. The Chiefs, Jets and Steelers all dropped down to 2-3 in their second five games, while the Redskins are an even 2-2-1 ATS in their last five.

Four teams went 1-4 versus the number in their first five games. Those teams were Buffalo, Carolina, Dallas and New Orleans. Through their last five games, the Bills (3-0-1) and the Saints (4-1) have managed to turn things around, while the Cowboys have improved slightly (2-3) and the Panthers (1-4) have equaled their futility.

Joining Buffalo and New Orleans and aforementioned Detroit on the list of top ATS performers for games 6 through 10 are:
Green Bay, 4-1 (2-3 in games 1-5)
Tampa Bay, 4-1 (2-2)
St. Louis, 4-1 (3-2)
Indianapolis, 3-1 (3-2)

None of the teams that have fared the worst ATS in their last five games were successful in their first five games. Wagering against these teams has been a strong proposition all season long:

Minnesota, 0-5, (2-3 in games 1-5)
Carolina, 1-4 (1-4)
Cincinnati, 1-4 (2-3)
Denver, 1-4 (2-3)
Arizona, 1-4 (2-3)
Houston, 1-4 (2-2)

As for totals, three teams have been especially consistent over the course of the entire season. AFC East rivals New England and the N.Y. Jets are both 8-2 Over (4-1 in both the first five games and past five games), while Chicago has consistently been a participant in low-scoring contests at 8-2 Under (4-1, 4-1).

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Atlanta and Cleveland when it comes to totals. Both the Falcons and Browns are 5-0 Over in their last five games after beginning the season 2-3. Dallas is also 5-0 Over in its last five games (3-2 in first five).

Atlanta will host Green Bay in a week 11 matchup of NFC Super Bowl contenders. In addition to supporting the case for the Over from the Falcons’ angle, the FoxSheets show some evidence for the Over from the Packers’ side of things:

Atlanta is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season. The average score was Atlanta 30.1, Opponent 21.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Green Bay is 16-2 OVER (+13.8 Units) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. The average score was Green Bay 31.9, Opponent 24.9 - (Rating = 4*).

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Good stuff Bum, thanks!!

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NFL Betting Preview: Packers at Falcons

Division leaders collide in a possible postseason preview when NFC North co-leader Green Bay travels to Atlanta, the NFC South’s top team. Both squads enter this matchup riding four-game winning streaks.

The Packers (7-3 straight up, 6-4 against the NFL spread) have captured their last three games by a combined score of 85-10, and enter Week 12 tied with Chicago. Green Bay leads the league in scoring differential at plus 106, recording 252 points while allowing just 146.

The Falcons (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) haven’t been as dominant during their winning streak, winning three of those outings by single digits. Atlanta ranks fourth in the league in scoring differential at plus 64, producing 256 points while yielding 192.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened Atlanta as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Green Bay, with the total set at 48. FOX Sports will provide coverage of Sunday’s NFC matchup beginning at 10 a.m. PT from Georgia Dome.

Green Bay throttled NFC North rival Minnesota last Sunday as a three-point road favorite, 31-3. The combined 34 points failed to eclipse the 45-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-2 the previous six games.

The Packers broke open a close contest by outscoring the Vikings in the second quarter, 17-0. Green Bay finished the contest with advantages in first downs (20-15), passing yards (283-207), turnovers forced (2-0) and time of possession (33:16-26:44).

Signal caller Aaron Rodgers completed 22-of-31 passes for 301 yards with four touchdowns, connecting with wideout Greg Jennings seven times for 152 yards and three scores. Running back Dimitri Nance paced the ground game with 12 carries for 37 yards in the victory.

Atlanta continued its winning ways by doubling up St. Louis last Sunday as 3 ½-point road ‘chalk,’ 34-17. The combined 51 points toppled the 43-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the fifth consecutive contest.

The Falcons put the finishing touches on the matchup by outscoring the Rams in the fourth quarter, 11-0. Atlanta ended the game with advantages in first downs (24-15), total plays (70-54), rushing yards (138-71), passing yards (253-233), turnovers forced (1-0) and time of possession (35:55-24:05).

Quarterback Matt Ryan was 26-of-39 passing for two touchdowns, while running back Michael Turner had 28 carries for 131 yards and a score. Wide receiver Roddy White caught nine passes for 83 yards in the victory, while Michael Jenkins contributed with five receptions for 58 yards.

The road team has won the previous three meetings in the Green Bay-Atlanta series SU and ATS, but the last meeting was back in 2008. The Falcons won that contest as a 3 ½-point road underdog, 27-24, while the combined 51 points eclipsed the 40 ½-point closing total. The ‘over’ is 4-1 the last five meetings between these teams.

Atlanta is 7-0 SU this season when playing in a dome, and 21-6 the previous three years. The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 their past eight home games in November.

Green Bay strong safety Atari Bigby (hamstring injury) and free safety Anthony Smith (ankle) are ‘doubtful’ versus the Falcons. The Packers host San Francisco next weekend before going on a two-game road trip versus Detroit and New England. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS its previous 10 road games.

Atlanta defensive end John Abraham (groin) is ‘questionable’ against the Packers, while tight end Justin Peellee (hernia) is ‘out.’ The Falcons follow this contest with a three-game road trip against Tampa Bay, Carolina and Seattle.

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NFL Free Pick: Patriots to tame Lions

Thanksgiving Day has been a day for the Detroit Lions for 70 seasons. They are 33-35-2 SU in their Turkey Day tussles and have fallen upon hard times of late, going winless both straight up and against the spread since beating the Green Bay Packers 22-14 in 2003.

This week's traditional matchup is with the New England Patriots that make their first trip to the Motor City since 2002 in a game that was ironically played on the fourth Thursday of the month of July.

That 2002 season was the only time that a Tom Brady led team failed to make the playoffs. Since that point, New England has won 85 of the 107 regular season games that the GQ cover boy has started, and the Pats have won a pair of Super Bowls. Detroit hasn't made the playoffs since then and has arguably been the worst franchise in professional sports. Just one year after the Pats became the first team in NFL history to go 16-0 in the regular season, the Lions were the first team ever to go 0-16.

Yes, these two teams have certainly played opposite lives since the 2002 encounter here, and New England hopes that those opposites continue on Thursday in a big game in the race for the playoffs in the AFC.

Those who hate the Pats are immediately going to point to three weeks ago when they lost on the road to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns and Lions are awfully comparable squads this year (and most years), and it is easy to just immediately say that Detroit is going to want to bust open this Thanksgiving Day slump and take it to a team that has played shoddy ball on the road.

Those haters are also going to show us that the Lions had the New York Jets, also an 8-2 team, on the ropes just three weeks ago before losing in OT but maintaining the cover on the NFL odds.

Then there are the New England lovers, who are quick to show wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts in back-to-back weeks since that point. They'll also say that Detroit was the first team to lose to the Buffalo Bills this year. It also just had its doors blown off by the 3-7 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon in Arlington.

Needless to say, we have some conflicting thoughts here. Odds have it, New England isn't nearly as good as its 8-2 record suggests, it is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

The difference here isn't in a single stat. There are no numbers to our reasoning. Just look at the injury report.

There are two key names on this list for the Lions: Quarterback Matt Stafford and Running Back Jahvid Best. These two were supposed to be leading the Lions in a new direction as great young stars, but neither one is likely to be in the lineup on Thursday. Stafford is suffering from his second shoulder injury of the season, while Best has turf toe.

New England could be getting back RB Fred Taylor and G Stephen Neal on Thursday. Taylor has missed the last seven games with a toe injury, while Neal has been out most of November with a shoulder injury.

Even on the injury report, the Pats have bested the Lions. New England is the better team now, it has the better franchise now, it has fewer injuries now, and it is covering the 6 ½-point NFL betting line that you can find at JustBet.com on Thursday as well.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 12
November 23, 2010


NEW ENGLAND at DETROIT (Thursday, November 25)...So much for the old "don't go against the Lions at home on Thanksgiving" theory, as Detroit has lost and failed to cover its last six as Turkey Day host. But Lions are 8-2 vs. line this season, including 4-0 at home. Belichick only 2-5 as visiting chalk since LY. Both trending "over" in 2010 (Belichick 8-2, Lions 7-3). Tech edge -"Over" and Lions, based on "totals" and team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS (Thursday, November 25)...Dallas a bit different story at home on Thanksgiving than Lions, as Cowboys have won and covered last four as Turkey Day host. Saints beginning to stir with big wins and covers in their last two on road by combined 65-9 score (at Bucs and Panthers). Jerry Jones "over" 8-2 TY. Tech edge-Saints and "over," based on current trends.

CINCINNATI at NY JETS (Thursday, November 25)...Rematch of back-to-back games at the end of last season in which Jets dominated with pair of wins and covers. Cincy 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY. Jets only 2-3 vs. number at New Meadowlands TY but are "over" in 8 of first 10 in 2010 and "over" 12-4 last 15 since late 2009 (including both vs. Bengals late last season). Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON...Vikes no covers last 4 TY and 0-4-1 vs. line away from Metrodome. Tech edge-Skins, based on recent Viking road woes.

PITTSBURGH at BUFFALO...Teams have only met three times since 2001 (the latest in 2007), but all were Steelers wins and covers. Chan Gailey no covers first 4 at Orchard Park TY. Tomlin just 6-9 vs. points last 15 away from Heinz Field. Tech edge-Steelers, based on Chan home woes.

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON...Titans have covered 6 of last 8 in series, including 4 of last 5 at Reliant Stadium. Six of last eight also "over" in series. Titans "over" 9-4 last 13 since late 2009. Kubiak 3-9 vs. number last 12 as host. Kubiak also "over" 9-3 last 12 since late 2009. Tech edge-"Over" and Titans, based on "totals" and series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at NY GIANTS...Jags "over" 9-2 last 1 1 since late 2009, G-Men "over" 17-7 last 24 since LY. Coughlin also just 4-9-1 vs. line last 14 as host (2-3 in new stadium TY). Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jags, based on "totals" and team trends.

CAROLINA at CLEVELAND...Panthers only 2-8 vs. line TY and now "under" 17-10 last 27 since late 2008. Tech edge-Browns and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE...Bucs have covered last 4 TY and are 5-0 vs. line away in 2010. They've covered seven straight as visitor since late 2009. Ravens 12-5 as home chalk for John Harbaugh since 2008. Tech edge-slight to Bucs, based on team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO...Buddy Ryan should be honored in pregame festivities! Bears doing things right since bye week, 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 vs. line. Lovie not likely to be chalk, but in case Bears laying points note 0-3-1 spread mark in role TY. For all of the Philly hype note that Birds only 4-5 vs. line TY. Andy Reid "over" 18-9 since late 2008. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on Birds' "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA...Falcs 9-5 vs. line at home since LY, also "over" 4-1 as host TY. Note, however, that Pack a surprising 4-0 "under" on road in 2010. Pack 14-3 last 17 as road dog since mid 2006 (1-0 TY). < B>Tech edge-slight to Pack, based on extended road dog mark.

MIAMI at OAKLAND...Sparano lost his last road game at Baltimore but still 4 -1 SU and vs. line away TY and 15-5 vs. spread last 20 as visitor. Sparano also "under" first 5 away TY and and "under" 14-4 last 18 away. Prior to last two Coliseum covers vs. Seattle & KC, Al Davis's team had failed to cover previous 11 as home chalke. Tech edge-Dolphins and "under, "based on team and "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll 3-1 SU and vs. line at home TY, and Seahawks 10-4 vs. spread last 14 as host. Chiefs have dropped last 2 vs. spread away after 18-9 spread mark previous 27 in role. Chiefs als o "over" 5 of past 6 TY, Seattle "over" last 3. Tech edge-"Over" and Seahawks, based on team and "totals" trend s.

ST. LOUIS at DENVER...Josh McDaniels "over" 7-3 TY and 12-3 last 15 since late 2009. Josh also "over" 6-1 last 7 at home. Rams still winless SU away TY but have covered 3 of last 4 on road and 7 of last 9 overall. Tech edge-"Over" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN DIEGO at INDIANAPOLIS...Chargers have been a tough nut for Peyton Manning to crack, as Bolts are 4-2 SU and 5-1 vs. line against Indy since 2004. SD has also covered last three trips to Indy, though Colts 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host. Norv "over" 20-10 since late 2008. Bolts 13-5 as dog since 2005 for Marty and Norv. Tech edge-Chargers and "over," based on series and Norv "totals" trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (Monday , November)...49ers have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series, including last four trips to desert. Cards 1-3 vs. line at home TY, and Whisenhunt "over" 10-2 last 12 since late 2009. Tech edge-49ers and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Bettors Bury Books in Week 11
November 23, 2010


Shopping on Black Friday just got a major boost for retailers around Nevada because there was a sudden increase in funds from people all over the state thanks to the NFL and the tide finally turning for the little guy. Sports bettors held their ground in support of their favorite teams after being pummeled by underdogs in nine of the 10 weeks, but week 11 was theirs to own.

“Sunday was the worst day of the season,” said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “I guess we were due.”

Due, they were, and their persistence paid off by not wavering from their strategies and waiting for the favorites to come back.

“We haven’t had that many popular teams come together all at once this season covering the spread,” explained Kornegay. “Through the season thus far, when one of the popular teams would win, then the others would lose or not cover. We kind of had the perfect storm hit us all at once this week.”

The bettors had a tough time this year with some of those perennial favorites, but it’s obvious by the results from week 11 that they hung in there with them, and it paid off.

The Eagles game was the final nail in the coffin for the sports books. The combination of seeing Michael Vick dazzle America last Monday Night and the Giants losing so badly to Dallas had bettors loving Philly. As if the Eagles game wouldn’t be bad enough alone by itself, the sports books had to look at the mounting risk from the previous 13 games on the day with all the accelerated parlay risk magnified at 10 to 1 odds and higher for several tickets.

Overall, the favorites ended up 9-5 for the day, not exactly the type of results you’d expect to bring the house down. However, it was the key games that all got there; the one sided bet games by all the regulars who laid 7-points with Pittsburgh, 13-points with the Ravens, 3-points with the Falcons and 12-points with the Saints. Throw in the Cowboys, Jaguars and Chiefs, and it truly was a perfect storm. You have to wonder what we would have called it had the Jets covered.

“It wasn’t just the sides of our most weighted games that beat us,” Kornegay added, “It was the combination of several of those teams getting there in addition to the totals going OVER. Getting lost in the shuffle the last few weeks has been how strong the OVER has been in the NFL just because the popular teams haven’t been covering."

The total went OVER in 10 of the 13 games in week 10. Week 11 saw only eight games fly over the number, but they were all pivotal games linked to the popular sides creating more jeopardy for the house. Because of this type of risk, local sports books fared much worse than strip properties where there isn’t that constant parlay card action.

The majority of the folks that struck gold this week were those people who bet a few times a week at the same time, same place, every week; the heart and soul of Las Vegas who work at positions throughout various Las Vegas casinos. These are the people who have been struggling all year to wet their beak and it’s finally nice to see those lost gratuities from the first few weeks find their way back into their home pockets.

Congrats, and keep going strong, because it's only going to get better.

Happy Thanksgiving!
After week 11, the sports books are not looking forward to the isolated three games of Thanksgiving where the three-team parlay of the Patriots, Saints and Jets will crush them. When mixing in the totals, the possibility of paying out odds at 44 to 1 or higher on six-teamers with no out, and a large looming risk for the next three days of games makes sports book Directors a little worried on Turkey day when most of the attention should be focused on family.

The Sports Books would be happy with a split, going 3-3 for the day, which should kill most combinations and alleviate risk. However, I can’t remember the sports books ever making a killing on these Thursday games. It’s always been like the football and turkey gods have always joined and looked upon the bettor to make this weekend plentiful to where the bettor always says, “Thanks for giving us some money” to the books.

Titanic Issues
The Titans will be in trouble this week after quarterback Vince Young basically walked out on the team during their 19-16 home loss to the Redskins. After being pulled late in the game because of aggravating a torn ligament in his thumb, head coach Jeff Fisher pulled him because he didn’t think Young had control of his passes due to the injury. With Kerry Collins out due to a strained calf, Fisher’s choice was to go with Rusty Smith, the rookie from Florida Atlantic. Young got so upset that he threw his jersey and shoulder pads into the crowd, another example in a long line of immature acts by Young over his NFL career.

This week it is doubtful that Young will play against the Texans and Collins is expected to not be available either leaving the way for Smith to make his NFL debut. The difference between the two quarterbacks is about 3-points. For the sake of the fans, and maybe Fisher’s job, the smart move is to play Young if able. At the end of the season, then you dump him.

Betting Keeps the NFL Games Interesting
The Seahawks moved the ball almost at will at New Orleans, but were put into a bad situation by repeated mistakes from Marshawn Lynch who dropped two key passes and fumbled twice. The Saints were winning quite easily throughout, but the Seahawks wouldn’t go away and were on the verge of covering the 12-point spread. With just over 5 minutes to go in the game, down by 18, ball on the Saints 2-yard line, the Seahawks elected to kick a field goal instead of going for it. The spread was in question up until the final ticks of the game until the Saints eventually won 34-19, and covered. This is a further example of what fans love about the NFL, which the league doesn’t acknowledge. An otherwise meaningless game turns out to being gripping until the end, only because of the point spread.

UFL Championship Game
The Las Vegas Hilton opened their UFL Championship game odds Sunday with the Florida Tuskers a 3 ½-point favorite over the Las Vegas Locomotives. The game is scheduled for Saturday with a 9:00 am (PDT) kickoff on Versus TV.

Congrats to Zack!
Palace Station’s Race and Sports Book Manager Zack Goldberg will be moving from the property, but staying within the Station Casinos family, as he has accepted a promotion to become Director of Casino Operations for Wildfire Lanes in Henderson. The Syracuse graduate will be greatly missed by all his fellow team members and guests over at Palace Station, but will be welcomed with open arms with his new team. Goldberg’s leadership skills, intelligence and ability to keep everyone happy with his good natured attitude were qualities that were obviously noticed by upper management. Those were also the initial qualities that got him hired at Sunset Station five years ago, where it didn’t take long for him to advance there. Three years later, Stations VP of Race and Sports Art Manteris gave him the manager job at Palace Station. The sky is the limit Mr. Goldberg, make the most of it, and congratulations!

[StarDust Bum]

QB Rusty Smith to start at Houston


TENNESSEE TITANS (5-5)
at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

With Vince Young placed on injured reserve and Kerry Collins still unable to play because of a calf injury, Rusty Smith will start at QB when the Titans visit Houston on Sunday. This game figures to be another close one, considering the past three meetings have been decided by three points or less. And considering the Texans back-to-back, heart-breaking losses to the Jaguars (hail mary) and Jets (last minute TD), the outcome of this game will likely not be decided until the game’s final play.

******* take:
Smith did not play very well in his NFL debut in last week’s 19-16 overtime loss to Washington. He was 3-of-9 for 62 yards and one interception. But unlike Young, who didn’t factor WR Randy Moss in the offense, Smith targeted Moss three times after he replaced Young last week. Moss only has one catch in two games with Tennessee this season. Considering the Texans have the NFL’s worst passing defense (301 YPG, 25 TD), Smith and Moss should be able to hook up a few times on Sunday. Per usual, the Tennessee offense revolves around dynamic RB Chris Johnson, who is third in the NFL with 968 rushing yards. In two meetings with Houston last year, Johnson gained 435 total yards (348 rushing, 87 receiving) with three touchdowns.

The Texans also have a great running back in Arian Foster who leads the NFL in both rushing yards (1,004) and touchdowns (13). QB Matt Schaub is just 2-4 in six career starts versus Tennessee, averaging less than 200 passing YPG against the Titans. However, Schaub has played pretty well during Houston’s current four-game losing skid, averaging 259 passing YPG with 4 TD and 2 INT. He did suffer a minor knee injury in last week’s loss to the Jets, but he will start Sunday. WR Andre Johnson has been bothered by a high ankle sprain for the past month, but he too will be able to play. Johnson only had four catches for 32 yards last week as the Jets keyed on shutting him down. The Titans had no such luck doing that last year, as Johnson caught 14 passes for 227 yards and three scores in two games versus Tennessee in 2009.

The Titans are 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in the eight all-time meetings at Reliant Stadium. However, these two FoxSheets trends predict Houston will snap its losing streak at home.

Play On - Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (90-48 since 1983.) (65.2%, +37.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game. (79-44 since 1983.) (64.2%, +30.6 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Delhomme, Clausen to start on Sunday


CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-9)
at CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-7)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

Two quarterbacks will return under center from injury absences when Carolina visits Cleveland. Jimmy Clausen (concussion) will start for the Panthers and Browns QB Jake Delhomme (ankle) will replace Colt McCoy who sustained a high ankle sprain in last week’s loss to Jacksonville.

******* take:
Clausen has been erratic this season, but is still as slight upgrade from last week’s starter Brian St. Pierre, who went 13-of-28 for 173 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in the loss to Baltimore. The rookie Clausen threw for a career-high 191 yards in his last game, Week 10 at Tampa Bay, but he has not yet completed more than 55 percent of his passes in a game. Clausen has one touchdown and four interceptions this year. More good news on the injury front includes RB Jonathan Stewart, who is set to return from his concussion. Stewart, who rushed for 1,113 yards last season, only has 208 this year, having not reached 50 yards in any game. RB Mike Goodson has earned continued touches with his play over the past two weeks, gaining 100 yards against the Bucs and 120 against the Ravens.

McCoy has been playing solid football in his rookie season, but Cleveland doesn’t lose much with Delhomme because of the team’s run-centric offense. Peyton Hillis has 1,125 total yards (774 rushing and 351 receiving) and 10 touchdowns. He should get plenty of carries against Carolina’s 24th-ranked run defense that is allowing 128 YPG. Delhomme, who played seven seasons in Carolina, will face his old team for the first time. In two games this season, Delhomme has a 48.2 quarterback rating (1 TD, 4 INT).

Carolina has won all three meetings between the teams, the most recent being a 20-12 home win in 2006. This FoxSheets trend expects Carolina to win again.

Play On - Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. (47-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +29.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Week 12 Showdowns
November 24, 2010

The Thanksgiving weekend wraps up with several stellar matchups on Sunday as four games feature contests with both teams owning at least 6-4 records. The surprising Buccaneers look to keep rolling on the road at Baltimore, while the Falcons and Packers do battle at the Georgia Dome. We'll start with the suddenly struggling Giants hosting the streaking Jaguars at the new Meadowlands.

Jaguars at Giants (-7, 44 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Three weeks ago, New York looked like the class of the NFC and Jacksonville was struggling to stay at the .500 mark. Now, the Jaguars are the hotter team out of the two with both squads meeting in New Jersey with identical 6-4 records in an important interconference game.

The Giants stubbed their toe in consecutive division losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. New York made a change at running back with Ahmad Bradshaw getting demoted in favor of Brandon Jacobs for Sunday due to Bradshaw's fumbling problems. To make matter worse, the Giants lost another big-play weapon with Hakeem Nicks sitting out three weeks following a left leg injury. New York's defense is having issues now by allowing at least 27 points in three of the last four games, while giving up seven points to Charlie Whitehurst and the Seahawks in Week 10.

The Jags are turning into the NFL's new cardiac kids with back-to-back last minute wins over the Texans and Browns to creep back into the AFC playoff race. David Garrard has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions in the last three victories, even though all three picks came against Cleveland. With the explosion of the offense, that has translated into 'overs' in the last four games for Jacksonville. The Jags aren't in a great spot here, compiling a 2-4 SU/ATS record since the start of last season on the road off a victory.

Packers at Falcons (-2, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Two of the top clubs in the NFC hook up for a key contest in Atlanta as the 7-3 Packers take on the 8-2 Falcons. Atlanta has New Orleans and Tampa Bay breathing down its neck in the NFC South, while Green Bay enters the day tied with Chicago atop the NFC North.

The Falcons cruised past the Rams last Sunday as short road favorites, the fourth straight win for Mike Smith's team. Atlanta has been a winning machine at the Georgia Dome when Matt Ryan starts at quarterback, compiling an 18-1 SU mark. Playing as a home favorite of four points or less since 2008 has been nearly a flawless proposition for the Falcons, going 6-0 ATS. The 'over' is on a five-game run for Atlanta, but all five have seen totals between 43 and 44 ½.

The Packers are rolling at the moment with four straight wins after consecutive overtime setbacks to the Redskins and Dolphins. Green Bay has overcome numerous injuries to climb back to the top of the NFC North, while allowing 10 combined points in the last three victories. Since Mike McCarthy's arrival in 2006, the Packers are 15-7 ATS as a road underdog, including the 9-0 shutout of the Jets as a 6 ½-point 'dog.

Buccaneers at Ravens (-7 ½, 41 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

One of these teams in not surprised to be 7-3 at this point, but the other probably didn't anticipate a 7-3 record after a 3-13 campaign last season. The remarkable turnaround for Tampa Bay has put the Bucs not only in the NFC playoff race, but also for the NFC South title. The Ravens, meanwhile, are fighting it out with the Steelers atop the AFC North after a blowout victory of the woeful Panthers last Sunday.

Tampa Bay has compiled a 5-0 ATS mark when receiving points on the road this season, while going 9-1 ATS since last November as an away underdog. The Bucs may not dazzle in any of the major offensive categories, but they have benefited backers with a 7-3 ATS ledger this season. The looming question heading into Sunday's matchup is whether or not Tampa Bay can compete with the big boys as all three of its losses have come against Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Atlanta.

Baltimore is 2-2 ATS this season when laying at least eight points, but have failed to cover twice at home as long favorites against Buffalo and Cleveland. Following a slow start offensively through the first four games, the Ravens have scored at least 26 points in four of the last six games. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore owns a 12-5 ATS record as a home favorite since 2008.

Eagles (-3 ½, 42) at Bears - 4:15 PM EST

Philadelphia continues to impress with Michael Vick's resurgence as the 7-3 Eagles visit Soldier Field to take on the 7-3 Bears. Chicago comes into this contest with a couple extra days of preparation after the 16-0 shutout at Miami last Thursday. The Eagles are rolling with three straight wins, including Sunday's triumph over the Giants, 27-17 as three-point favorites.

Andy Reid's club is 4-1 on the highway with the lone blemish coming with Vick injured in a 37-19 defeat at Tennessee in Week 7. The 'under' against the Giants halted a five-game 'over' streak for the Eagles, who have tallied at least 26 points in all five games that Vick has played wire-to-wire.

Chicago is also on a three-game winning streak, while cashing the 'under' in all three victories. Lovie Smith's defense has stepped up by allowing a combined 32 points during the hot streak, as the Bears continue to lead the league in 'unders' with eight in 10 games. Chicago has been money when getting points this season, cashing in four of five contests as an underdog.

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving Day
November 24, 2010

The NFL action starts early this week with its annual Thanksgiving Day slate. We’ll recap Week 11’s action, Bad Beats and much more in our weekly installment on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the three holiday games on tap and their totals. And keep in mind that before you continue to play this year’s ‘over’ trend, all three games went ‘under’ the number on Turkey Day last year so anything is possible.
Gamblers looking to get into all three totals can do so at Sportsbook.com and their Thanksgiving Day Grand Salami wager. You either bet the OVER or UNDER on the total points scored in all three games. The total is sitting at 145.5 points.

New England at Detroit (51)

The number in this contest is high but both New England (8-2) and Detroit (7-3) have been easy ‘over’ winners this season and it’s hard to argue against another high-scoring affair in the Turkey Day matinee. For starters, the Lions have watched all four of their home games go ‘over’ the number this season, largely due to an offense that has averaged 33.3 points per games in those outings. Plus, Detroit’s defense has given up an average of 22.3 PPG at Ford Field as well. And if you didn’t know, New England is averaging 28.9 PPG, which is ranked first. The club has seen three of their four road games go ‘over’ the number but the Pats’ offense was stifled to 14 points twice, both coming in losses to the Jets and Browns.

Bettors looking at the ‘under’ can point to Detroit’s recent offensive woes, which has produced 20, 12 and 19 points in the last three weeks. Also, the Lions have struggled offensively on Thanksgiving Day as well, scoring 12 points or less in five of the last six holiday battles. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in Detroit’s last eight on Thanksgiving. Most believe the Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady (19 TDs, 4 INTs) will get at least five scores, but can Shaun Hill (61.6%, 12 TDs, 9 INTs) do the same for the Lions?

New Orleans at Dallas (51)

Similar to the Pats and Lions, the Cowboys have been a clear-cut ‘over’ team this season as well. Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight and eight of 10 on the year. The club has lit up the scoreboard the past two weeks with solid performances against the Giants (33) and Lions (35), but they were helped with 14 points coming from the defense and special teams. Speaking of defense, the Dallas unit has looked better recently as well, surrendering 20 and 19 in its two wins. And that came after the club gave up an average of 35.8 PPG in the previous five weeks.

New Orleans was an offensive juggernaut last season but the explosive attack was missing in action during the first eight weeks (20.8 PPG) this year. Even though the Saints haven’t been able to match last year’s numbers, QB Drew Brees and the offense have posted 34 points in each of their last two wins. The one constant with New Orleans this season has been its defense, which is only allowing 17 PPG. And if you look at the two games they gave up 30 points in losses to both the Cardinals and Browns, 28 of those 60 points were defensive scores. Do the math folks – the Saints defense is technically allowing 14.2 PPG, which is the best in the NFL.

Dallas hasn’t had any issues on the holiday stage when it comes to putting up numbers. The Cowboys have put up 20-plus points in the last nine games played on Thanksgiving and that includes 30-plus in three of the previous four. Despite those numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in their last four holiday contests.

Last year, the Cowboys stifled the Saints 24-17 at the Superdome and the combined 41 points never threatened the closing total of 53 ½.

Cincinnati at New York Jets (43.5)

The primetime tilt on Thanksgiving between the Jets and Bengals has the lowest total on the board and we're expected to see some poor weather for this matchup. Last year, New York beat Cincinnati in Week 17 (37-0) and then in the Wild Card round (24-14) of the playoffs the following week. Both of those games went ‘over’ the number but the totals (33.5, 34) weren’t exactly tough to eclipse.

New York’s defense is still considered a top unit in the league but that hasn’t stopped the ‘over’ from going 8-2. Cincinnati (6-4) has leaned toward the ‘over’ as well, largely due to its lack of defense. The Bengals have allowed 32 PPG in their last five and it could be worse if the Dolphins (22) and Colts (23) would’ve put touchdowns instead of a combined eight field goals between the pair.

Since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the four installments.

Fearless Predictions

Best Over: New England-Detroit 51

Best Under: New Orleans-Dallas 51

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over New England-Detroit 42
Under New Orleans-Dallas 60
Under Cincinnati-N.Y. Jets 52.5

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Thanksgiving Day Card
November 24, 2010


Editor's Note: NFL Money Leader Kevin Rogers remains on fire in the regular season with a 41-19 start. You can purchase his Saints/Cowboys winner right here on VegasInsider.com Click to win!

Thanksgiving Day Trends

The Thanksgiving Day card is loaded in the NFL with three games to wager on, as a busy sports weekend gets underway. The Jets look to keep up their winning ways against the struggling Bengals, while the Saints head to Texas to battle a surging Cowboys club. We'll begin in the Motor City with the red-hot Patriots going for their league-best ninth win of the season.

Patriots (-6 ½, 51) at Lions - 12:30 PM EST - CBS

New England continues to be the class of the AFC following last Sunday's 31-28 home victory over Indianapolis to improve to 8-2 on the season. The Pats hope to avoid a letdown spot when Bill Belichick's team travels to Ford Field to battle the 2-8 Lions in the early Thanksgiving tilt.

The Lions haven't helped their cause when playing on Turkey Day, dropping six straight games by double-digits. Granted, Detroit hasn't won more than seven games in a season since this cold streak began in 2004, but the Lions aren't putting up their best effort in this spot. The Lions faced a playoff team in each of the last three Thanksgiving games, falling to Green Bay in 2007 and 2009, while losing to Tennessee in 2008.

Detroit was handed only its third ATS loss of the season last week in a 35-19 setback at Dallas as five-point underdogs. The Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS at Ford Field, including close losses to the Jets and Eagles. The 'over' has turned into a great play recently for Jim Schwartz's club, hitting in six of the past seven games.

The Patriots have also been a strong 'over' team of late, cashing in four straight contests. In New England's two losses, the Pats have been held to 14 points; in their eight victories, New England has scored at least 23 points. This isn't an automatic spot to back the Pats, who are in an interesting look-ahead spot with a home contest against the Jets next Sunday, while coming off the huge win over the Colts.

Saints (-4, 50) at Cowboys - 4:15 PM EST - FOX

Dallas is slowly waking up from the dead with back-to-back victories over the Giants and Lions to improve to 3-7. That may have something to do with the firing of Wade Phillips, but the Cowboys are trying to make this season somewhat respectable. Things will not ease up on Thanksgiving with the defending Super Bowl champion Saints invading Arlington.

New Orleans is fresh off three straight double-digit victories after the surprising home defeat to Cleveland. The Saints' offense is clicking by putting up 34 points in each of the last two weeks, while improving to 4-1 ATS the previous five weeks. Sean Payton's squad looks for revenge against the Cowboys after dropping a 24-17 decision at the Superdome last December to end a 13-0 run.

The Cowboys' offense finally got going with Jon Kitna under center by tallying 33 against the Giants and 35 against the Lions. The 'over' is riding a seven-game streak and that has more to do with the offense improving as opposed to the defense getting lit up in the prior five games. Dallas has won each of its last four Thanksgiving games by at least 17 points, including last season's 24-7 blowout of Oakland.

Bengals at Jets (-9, 43 ½) - 8:20 PM EST - NFL Network

New York keeps finding ways to win games while Cincinnati invents new ways to throw away games as the two teams hook up at the new Meadowlands. The Jets start the day tied with the Patriots atop the AFC East at 8-2, as New York rallied for a 30-27 victory over Houston last Sunday.

The Texans win was the third straight comeback victory for Rex Ryan's team, who beat their third straight under .500 team on the final possession. New York did blow a 23-7 lead to Houston, but couldn't cash tickets for backers as the Jets were laying 6 ½ points. The 'over' has profited nicely for the Jets, hitting in eight of the last nine games. New York is just 3-6 ATS under Ryan when laying at least 5 ½ points, but one of those wins came in the regular season finale last season against the Bengals, 37-0 as 9 ½-point 'chalk.'

The Bengals are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to the Jets in the span of a week last season, including the 24-14 home loss in the first round of the playoffs. Cincinnati was a great underdog play in 2009, but the Bengals own a 2-4 ATS mark this season when receiving points. Marvin Lewis' club squandered a 31-14 lead in a disappointing 49-31 setback to Buffalo last week as four-point favorites. The Bengals will be tested by this strong Jets' defense, as Cincinnati has scored 21 points or less in seven games this season.

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/22/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/21/10 14-14-0 50.00% -700 Detail
11/18/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
11/15/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
11/14/10 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail
11/11/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
11/08/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/07/10 11-8-1 57.89% +1100 Detail
11/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
Totals 43-40-1 51.81% -500

Thursday, November 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 12:30 PM ET New England -6.5 500
Detroit - Under 50.5 500

New Orleans - 4:15 PM ET Dallas +3.5 500
Dallas - Under 50 500

Cincinnati - 8:20 PM ET Cincinnati +9 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 43.5 500

I like all 6 plays here in a parlay for fun......

Good Luck !

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NFL Betting Preview: Jacksonville visits Giants

The Jacksonville Jaguars have reeled off three straight wins, cashing with a 3-0 NFL spread record in that stretch. Jack Del Rio’s club travels to New Meadowlands Stadium’s turf for Sunday’s clash with the New York Giants, who have dropped two straight.

Sports books opened New York as a 9 ½-point home favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 45 ½. Early wagers on the Jaguars and ‘under’ drove the numbers south to seven and 44 ½, respectively.

Jacksonville’s latest triumph came in last Sunday’s 24-20 win as a 2 ½-point home favorite against the Cleveland Browns. The Jaguars came from behind, picking up two late touchdowns after entering the fourth quarter down, 17-10.

Jaguars quarterback David Garrard completed 20-of-34 passes for 254 yards. The nine-year veteran threw three interceptions, while hitting mates Marcedes Lewis and Mike Thomas for one score each.

Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 133 yards, nearly equaling his season-high. The 25-year-old took in the team’s go-ahead touchdown from the one-yard line with 1:16 remaining.

The Jaguars’ defense allowed 283 yards, with 195 coming through the air. Defensive end Jeremy Mincey logged two of his squad’s six sacks, while safety Sean Considine grabbed his first interception of the year.

The tight affair’s 44 combined points leaped above the closing ‘total’ of 43. Jacksonville notched 24 first downs in its 31 minutes of possession, while going 3-for-3 in scoring touchdowns from the red zone.

Jacksonville is 2-2 ATS in its first four road games, with the ‘over’ cashing at 4-0. Mincey and Co. have allowed a sizable 30.8 PPG in that span.

New York logged its latest setback in last Sunday’s 27-17 defeat as a 3 ½-point road dog against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants came from behind in the fourth quarter, taking a 17-16 lead, but allowed 10 unanswered points after their surge ahead.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw three interceptions, while coughing up one of his squad’s two fumbles. The Louisiana native connected on 20-of-33 attempts, notching 147 yards en route to two touchdowns.

Manning’s favorite target was wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who logged 65 yards with a team-high six catches. Nicks is expected to miss his next three games due to a leg injury, according to DonBest.com.

The Giants’ defense gave up 392 yards, which included a combined 292 yards of passing and rushing by Eagles quarterback Michael Vick. New York’s Justin Tuck recorded all three of his squad’s sacks, equaling his season-high.

New York is 2-3 ATS in its first five home games, with the ‘under’ also going 2-3. Tom Coughlin’s crew has notched 406.6 YPG in that stretch, while allowing 20.6 PPG.

Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Giants, with the ‘over’ also cashing at 3-1.

The foes have not met since 2006, when the Jaguars won, 26-10, as four-point home favorites. Garrard led Jacksonville’s offense to 21 first downs in its 40 minutes of possession, while Manning logged two interceptions for New York.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 10 a.m. (PT), with CBS providing television coverage in some markets.

The weather forecast in East Rutherford, NJ calls for a high of 48 degrees, with sunny conditions and calm winds.

Both clubs face divisional opponents as part of next Sunday’s league slate. New York will remain at home against the Washington Redskins, while Jacksonville visits the Tennessee Titans.

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Ravens nine-point chalk at home vs. Bucs

No, Raheem Morris your Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC.

But the Buccaneers are the most surprising team in the league at 7-3. That’s just one game behind fellow NFC South Division rival Atlanta for top mark in the NFC. The Buccaneers were 3-13 last season, which brought a fourth-place schedule.

Tampa Bay probably isn’t as good as its lofty record having played an easy schedule. Baltimore, however, has to be careful. The Ravens host Tampa Bay Sunday at 1:15 p.m. PT. The Ravens are nine-point favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 41.

The Buccaneers have covered during their last seven road games. Something has to give because the Ravens have won seven in a row at home and 14 of their last 17 at M&T Bank Stadium.

Since 2003, Baltimore is 22-13-2 as home ‘chalk.’ The Ravens are 2-2 against the NFL spread this year laying points at home failing to cover as 12-points favorites against Cleveland in Week 3 and getting past Buffalo in overtime as 12-point ‘chalk’ during Week 7.

The Buccaneers are the youngest team in the NFL and starting seven rookies. This hasn’t prevented them from winning close games.

Tampa Bay has won four games by three points or less. None of Tampa Bay’s victories have been against a team with a winning record. The Buccaneers have been outscored by three points on the season.

The Buccaneers have faced three teams with a winning mark and lost by 25 points to Pittsburgh at home, by 25 to New Orleans at home and by six on the road to Atlanta.

The Ravens also are 7-3. They own victories against the New York Jets and Steelers along with a tough overtime road loss to New England by three.

Baltimore is giving up 17.8 points per game, sixth-best in the NFL. The Ravens rank eighth in total defense and are No. 12 in total offense.

Joe Flacco has an 11-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games. Flacco is especially good at home. He has thrown 14 touchdown passes during his past seven home games with no interceptions. Anquan Boldin has caught six touchdown passes in his last eight games.

Ray Rice has put together five consecutive 100-plus total yard games. Tampa Bay ranks 29th in run defense yielding 136.5 yards per game on the ground. The Buccaneers hadn’t generated much of a pass rush either until sacking Troy Smith six times last Sunday in a 21-0 shutout of San Francisco. The Buccaneers were 3 ½-point road favorites. The combined 21 points went ‘under’ the 41-point total.

That impressive Tampa victory should garner Baltimore’s attention even though the Ravens have a huge look-ahead matchup meeting Pittsburgh next week. Tampa Bay also has a big game next Sunday hosting Atlanta.

The Ravens toyed with undermanned Carolina at home last week before winning, 37-13, as 13-point favorites thanks to two interceptions returned for touchdowns during the final five minutes. The combined 50 points went ‘over’ the 37-point total.

Josh Freeman, like Flacco, is becoming one of the better young quarterbacks in the NFL. His passer rating of 92.0 is just behind Flacco’s 92.1 mark. Freeman is completing 61 percent of his throws with 14 touchdown passes and five interceptions.

LeGarrette Blount has emerged as a dependable runner for Tampa Bay rushing for 339 yards in his last four games with three touchdowns during this span.

Tampa Bay has a strong pass defense ranking sixth. The Buccaneers have picked off 15 passes, eight by cornerbacks Aquib Talib and Ronde Barber.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 12 of the Buccaneers’ last 17 games. The ‘under’ has cashed in 13 of the Ravens’ past 16 games when they hosted a foe with a winning road mark.

The weather forecast is for a clear day with temperatures in the 30s and six mph winds.

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NFL betting battle pits Colts vs. Chargers

Two of the marquee teams in the American Football Conference collide on the Week 12 schedule under pedestrian records. Both San Diego (5-5 straight up and against the spread) and Indianapolis (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) are still in the thick of division races despite failing to reach preseason expectations.

The Chargers got out of the gates slowly, but have appeared to turn things around the past couple of weeks. San Diego will have to improve its dismal 1-4 SU road record, but the team remains just one-game behind Kansas City in the AFC West standings. The Chargers have a scoring differential of plus 63 by outscoring opponents, 274-211.

The Colts have been inconsistent the past month of action, but are currently tied atop the AFC South standings with Jacksonville. Indianapolis maintains an unblemished 4-0 SU home ledger, and has a scoring differential of plus 52 in all of its games, 268-216.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds list Indianapolis as three-point home 'chalk' over San Diego, with the total set at 51 ½. NBC Sports will provide coverage of Sunday Night Football beginning at 5:20 p.m. PT from Lucas Oil Stadium.

San Diego enters this matchup riding a three-game SU and ATS winning streak after routing Denver on Monday Night Football as a nine-point home favorite, 35-14. The combined 49 points slithered 'under' the 50-point closing total, ending back-to-back 'over' outings. The Chargers had dropped three games in a row SU and ATS before their current winning streak.

San Diego never looked back after jumping out to a 14-point halftime advantage, 21-7. The Chargers concluded the contest with advantages in first downs (21-16), rushing yards (147-63), passing yards (253-172) and time of possession (34:19-25:41).

Quarterback Philip Rivers was 15-of-24 passing for 233 yards with four touchdowns and an interception, and has now thrown for at least one score his last 23 games. Fullback Mike Tolbert paced the ground game with 25 carries for 111 yards with a score, while wideout Patrick Crayton caught three passes for 105 yards and a touchdown.

Indianapolis has alternated SU wins and losses its last four games after its setback to New England last weekend as a four-point road underdog, 31-28. The combined 59 points eclipsed the 49 ½-point closing total, helping the 'over/under' alternate the previous nine games.

The Colts were driving late in the game before an errant Peyton Manning pass was intercepted. Indianapolis was in field-goal position, but the team was trying for the go-ahead touchdown. The Colts made things interesting with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before the untimely pick.

Indianapolis finished the contest with advantages in first downs (28-22) and passing yards (396-178), but was unable to overcome turnovers forced (3-0). Manning finished the game by completing 38-of-52 passes for 396 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Running back Donald Brown had 17 carries for 68 yards, while wideout Reggie Wayne caught eight passes for 107 yards and a score.

San Diego is 4-1 SU and ATS the previous five meetings with Indianapolis, but the last contest occurred in January 2009. The 'under' is also 4-1 during those five games.

San Diego wide receiver Vincent Jackson (suspension served) and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (hamstring injury) are 'probable' versus the Colts, while tight end Antonio Gates (foot), guard Louis Vasquez (stinger), tight end Kris Wilson (back), defensive end Travis Johnson (shoulder), strong safety Steve Gregory (shoulder) and wide receiver Legedu Naanee (hamstring) are 'questionable.' Running back Ryan Mathews (ankle) and wide receiver Patrick Crayton (wrist) are 'doubtful.'

The Chargers follow this contest with a three-game homestand against Oakland, Kansas City and San Francisco. San Diego has seen the 'over' go 7-1 the previous eight outings following an ATS win. The 'over' is also 24-11-3 in San Diego's last 38 road contests.

Indianapolis running back Joseph Addai (neck) and wide receiver Austin Collie (concussion) are expected to miss this matchup against the Chargers, while running back Mike Hart (ankle), linebacker Clint Session (elbow), cornerback Justin Tryon (foot) and middle linebacker Gary Brackett (toe) are 'questionable.'

The Colts host Dallas next weekend before going on the road to tackle AFC South rival Tennessee. Indianapolis is 7-0-1 ATS its past eight games in Week 12, and 11-5-1 its previous 17 matchups versus AFC opponents.