NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (11/25 - 11/29)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, November 25 - Monday, November 29

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Week 12

Thanksgiving’s a time for family, friends and more importantly, some serious midweek NFL action.

With all the hustle and bustle of the holiday season, it can be easy to get your priorities mixed up, which is exactly why you should jump on Week 12’s NFL lines immediately if not sooner.

On Thursday, we’re treated to three matchups: Patriots-Lions (+7.5), Saints-Cowboys (+3.5), and Bengals-Jets (-9)

If you slack off and wait until minutes before kickoff, you’ll be just like the vast majority of the betting public and could miss out on some value early this week.

“We usually see the bulk of the handle the morning of the games as guests are trying to get their bets down before enjoying the day with their families,” says Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino. “My guess is the books will be rooting for some puppy love that day especially with favorites going 9-5 this past Sunday.”

And especially when you have three huge public teams playing stand-alone games on a holiday.

“It has been a tradition almost as certain as turkey and stuffing for the favorites to draw the action on Thanksgiving Day and the higher the lines the more the public tends to focus on the favored teams,” says pro handicapper and Covers Expert Dave Malinsky. “Yet there has already been early money to Cincinnati this week, and we wonder if those that wanted to back the Bengals might have been able to get better value had they waited until game day.”

Of course, that’s always the risk you run betting early. Malinsky also notes that bettors should focus more heavily on evaluating coaching, game plans, injuries and travel schedules as the six teams get set to play on short rest.

As bettors, we’re working on a short week as well and some early wagers have already influenced Thursday’s lines.

“The Patriots game has already moved a half point from -7 to -7.5,” says Greg Sindall, SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker. “I would not be surprised to see that move more. We’ll have the combination of people fading the Lions as well as backing the Patriots. As a public team, the Patriots attract action naturally. They take even more action when they beat a top team the previous week such as Indianapolis.”

Biggest spread of the week: Panthers at Browns

This line wasn’t posted as of this writing, but Esposito says it should check in around Panthers +11. Everybody knows Carolina is terrible, but it does seem like a lot of points at the open.

“It’s hard to believe the Browns are a double-digit favorite,” Esposito says. “The Panthers are 0-4 on the road and double-digit favorites are now 5-9 against the spread this season after going 2-0 yesterday (in Week 11).”

Smallest spread of the week: Chiefs-Seahawks, 49ers-Cardinals

The Chiefs are set at -1 right now on the road, while the Cards are +1 at home to the Niners.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if both teams go off the underdog by kickoff,” says Esposito. “The Chiefs were a small favorite two weeks ago and were totally dominated in Denver. The 49ers, who are winless on the road, are probably the biggest disappointment in the NFC and come off a shutout loss at home.”

“I think we have the wrong favorite in both games.”

Biggest total of the week:

Look out for a few big over/under numbers this week. The Pats-Lions game currently sits at 51 points, while the Saints-Cowboys number is at 50.

Also, there’s no number out for the Chargers-Colts matchup, but Esposito figures it will be up there with the two Thursday games once it’s posted.

Smallest total of the week:

The Carolina Panthers hold on to this dubious distinction for another week as their tilt with the Cleveland Browns current sits with a 37.5-point total. The Panthers have seen only one of their last six totals crack the 40-point plateau.

Trickiest line of the week:

Of course, it’s the Minnesota Vikings set as 3-point underdogs as they visit the Washington Redskins with Leslie Frazier tapped to come in for Brad Childress on an interim basis. Frazier was quick to say that Brett Favre is still going to be the team’s starting quarterback.

“There seems to be a lot of finger pointing in the locker room,” Esposito says of the Vikings. “They still are a talented team and a coaching change in Dallas has produced a quick turnaround. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line comes down by kickoff.”

Other available Week 12 lines:

Steelers at Bills (+6, 43)
Jaguars at Giants (-7.5, 44.5)
Packers at Falcons (-1.5, 47.5)
Buccaneers at Ravens (+9, 41)
Eagles at Bears (+3.5, 42.5)

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 12

Thursday, November 25

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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 2) at DETROIT (2 - 8) - 11/25/2010, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 3) at DALLAS (3 - 7) - 11/25/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC South division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 8) at NY JETS (8 - 2) - 11/25/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 28

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MINNESOTA (3 - 7) at WASHINGTON (5 - 5) - 11/28/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 46-76 ATS (-37.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) at BUFFALO (2 - 8) - 11/28/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 82-53 ATS (+23.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (5 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 6) - 11/28/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (6 - 4) at NY GIANTS (6 - 4) - 11/28/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 9) at CLEVELAND (3 - 7) - 11/28/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 3) at BALTIMORE (7 - 3) - 11/28/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (7 - 3) at CHICAGO (7 - 3) - 11/28/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 140-97 ATS (+33.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (7 - 3) at ATLANTA (8 - 2) - 11/28/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (5 - 5) at OAKLAND (5 - 5) - 11/28/2010, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 5) - 11/28/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (4 - 6) at DENVER (3 - 7) - 11/28/2010, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) - 11/28/2010, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 29

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SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 7) at ARIZONA (3 - 7) - 11/29/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 12

Thursday, 11/25/2010

NEW ENGLAND at DETROIT, 12:30 PM ET CBS
NEW ENGLAND: 8-2 Over this season
DETROIT: 14-5 Over off road loss

NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET FOX
NEW ORLEANS: 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play
DALLAS: 6-0 Over on turf

CINCINNATI at NY JETS, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS vs. AFC East
NY JETS: 8-2 Over this season


Sunday, 11/28/2010

MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 6-1 Under off 2 straight DD losses
WASHINGTON: 1-7 ATS after a game w/ 50+ pass attempts

PITTSBURGH at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 82-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
BUFFALO: 2-8 ATS vs. Pittsburgh

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 1-5 ATS off 2 straight losses
HOUSTON: 29-14 ATS off 2 straight losses

JACKSONVILLE at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 4-12 ATS off 2 straight home wins
NY GIANTS: 3-0 Under off double digit loss

CAROLINA at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 8-2 Under vs. AFC
CLEVELAND: 10-1 Under vs. NFC South

TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE, 4:15 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 36-15 Under off win by 14+ pts
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS at home after scoring 30+ pts

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO, 4:15 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 15-4 Over off an Under
CHICAGO: 1-5 ATS off win by 14+ pts

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 16-2 Over off 4+ ATS wins
ATLANTA: 7-0 Over if total is between 42.5 and 49

MIAMI at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
MIAMI: 0-6 ATS off Thursday game
OAKLAND: 9-2 Under in November

KANSAS CITY at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 8-1 Over off an Under
SEATTLE: 6-0 ATS at home off an Over

ST LOUIS at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 7-1 Over after allowing 30 points or more last game
DENVER: n/a

SAN DIEGO at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
SAN DIEGO: 7-1 ATS at Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 12-3 Under if 50+ pts were scored last game


Monday, 11/29/2010

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 ATS off SU loss as favorite
ARIZONA: 14-5 Over off SU loss

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 25

12:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DALLAS
New Orleans is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Dallas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games

8:20 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY JETS
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Cincinnati


Sunday, November 28

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing Houston
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee


1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. CLEVELAND
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Carolina's last 17 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Pittsburgh is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Buffalo is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY GIANTS
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Giants are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. WASHINGTON
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Washington is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Miami
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SEATTLE
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:15 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Denver
St. Louis is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 17 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing San Diego


Monday, November 29

8:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Cincinnati at NY Jets
The Jets look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games versus AFC East teams. New York is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-8 1/2). Here are all of the Thanksgiving Day picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 103-104: New England at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.050; Detroit 129.680
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

Game 105-106: New Orleans at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.393; Dallas 135.376
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4); Under

Game 107-108: Cincinnati at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.187; NY Jets 140.904
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 8 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-8 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Write-Up


NFL Week 12 games

Patriots (8-2) @ Lions (2-8)—Patriots traveling on short week after dramatic win over Colts, have Jets on deck, letdown possible, especially given their dreadful 34-14 loss in Cleveland three weeks ago. Pats are 5-4 in series, winning last two meetings 20-12/28-21; only one of their five series wins is by more than 8 points. NE was held to 14 points in both its losses; Detroit allowed 23+ points in seven of last nine games, holding only Rams/Bills under 23 in that stretch. NFC North underdogs are 8-5-1 vs. spread, 2-0 at home. AFC East favorites are 5-9-1, 2-2 on road. Pats haven’t turned ball over in four of last five games (+7). Last four Patriot games, six of last seven Lion games went over total.

Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7)—Dallas 2-0 under interim coach Garrett, scoring 33-35 points, after averaging 20.1 ppg under Phillips; they handed champ Saints first loss in Superdome LY, but are 1-5 in last six series games, with Saints winning last two played here, 27-13/42-17. Cowboys are 1-6 this year when they don’t win turnover battle; last week’s win over Lions was their first in five home games. Saints are -9 in their three losses, +5 in seven wins. NO allowed 27-30-30 points in its losses; they’re 3-1 on road, winning last two away games 31-6/34-3. NFC South favorites are 7-8-1 vs. spread, 2-3 on road. NFC East underdogs are 6-6-2 vs. spread, 1-1-2 at home. Last seven Dallas games went over total.

Bengals (2-8) @ Jets (8-2)—Jets have gaudy 8-2 mark, but its been 53 days since they won a game by more than 9 points. Cincy lost last seven games, getting outscored 35-0 in second half last week by 2-8 Bills, after leading 31-14 at half; they’re 2-3 as underdog this year, 1-2 on road- only two of their eight losses are by more than 8 points. Jets are 8-1 in last nine series games, beating Bengals twice LY, 37-0 in meaningless late season game, then 24-14 at Cincy in playoff loss that Bengals have yet to recover from. Bengals lost last 11 visits to Swamp (8 vs Jets, 3 vs Giants); their last win here was 1981. Over is 5-2 in last seven Bengal games, 8-2 in last ten Jet games. Palmer was walking around in boot early in week, is expected to play.

Vikings (3-7) @ Redskins (5-5)—Frazier’s first game as interim coach; expect team to play much harder for him than they did for despised Childress. Vikings lost four of last five games, and trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win; they’re 0-5 on road, 0-4-1 vs spread as underdog and even though they’ve got one of best RB’s in NFL, they’ve run ball for only 81 ypg over last three games. Redskins allowed 16 or less points in their five wins, 27+ in all five losses; they’re 5-2 in games decided by six or less points, but also lost three of last four at home. Skins allowed 260-151 rushing yards in their last two games. NFC North dogs are 8-4-1, 6-4-1 on road. NFC East favorites are 6-8, 4-6 at home. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Viking games.

Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4)— Jaguars scored 35-31-24 points in winning last three games, last two in dramatic fashion at home, but when they lose, they lose big; all four of their losses are by 22+ points. Front-running nitwits in Big Apple media doubt that Tom Coughlin can coach? Dude was Jaguars’ first head coach; after going 4-12 the first year, Jags went 45-19 in Years 2-5. He’s won Super Bowl with Giants, but naysayers point out his teams have been sagging in second half of recent years. Giants are -6 in turnovers this year (-10 in losses, +4 in wins); they allowed 27+ points in all four losses. Big Blue is 2-3 as home favorite, with wins by 13-14-8 points. Over is 6-1 in Jags’ last seven games, 4-1 in Giants’ last five. AFC South road dogs are 7-3 vs. spread.

Steelers (7-3) @ Bills (2-8)— Pittsburgh is only three-hour ride from Buffalo; expect to see lot of black/gold in crowd for this game. Improving Bills won last two games, after losing three in row by FG each; its been seven weeks since Buffalo lost a game by more than 7 points- they’re 4-1-1 vs. spread in last six games as underdog. Bills ran ball for 151-141 yards last two weeks, after averaging 108 ypg in first eight; they’re 2-2 if they don’t lose turnover battle (losses by 5-10 points). Steelers averaging 24.8 ppg since Big Ben came back, after scoring less than 20 in three of four games he missed- they converted 18 of 40 (45%) of 3rd downs in last three games. Only teams to beat Steelers are Pats-Ravens-Saints; NFL’s elite. Pitt is 4-3 as a favorite this season.

Titans (5-5) @ Texans (4-6)—Tennessee drafted Houston native Vince Young in part to tweak Houstonians, figuring he would haunt division rivals for 10+ years; now Young isn’t even welcome in Titans’ practice facility, and Titans have 3rd-stringer Rusty Smith (played at Florida Atlantic) under center, with awful Chris Simms in reserve, vs. Texans squad that is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30 ppg with consecutive heartbreaking, last-second losses. Houston hasn’t held anyone under 24 points all season; they’re 1-3-1 as favorite this year. Tennessee lost its last three games, getting outscored 47-19 in second half. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Over is 5-2 in Titans’ last seven games, 4-1 in Texans’ last five.

Panthers (1-9) @ Browns (3-7)— Not often a team loses when +5 in turnovers (something like 42-2 this year) but Browns pulled it off last week. Carolina’s greatest moment was when Jake Delhomme led them to NFC title; now Delhomme will start against his old team if gimpy rookie McCoy (ankle) can’t go. Panthers are terrible, covering only one of their nine losses; bad teams have almost no home field advantage (1-3 as home underdog). Browns lost only time they were favored this year (16-14 to Chiefs in Week 2); they lost last two games in gut-wrenching fashion, after beating Saints/Patriots before that. Carolina won all three series games by 14-7-8 points, winning two visits here, 31-17/17-6. Last five Cleveland games went over the total.

Buccaneers (7-3) @ Ravens (7-3)— Fourth road game in five weeks for Tampa team that won four of last five games (4-0 vs spread last four), and is 5-2 vs. spread as dog this year; their 2010 losses are by 25-25-6 points. Bucs are 4-0 in games decided by less than six points. Ravens won six of last eight games, are 4-0 at home (2-2 as home fave) winning by 7-14-3-16 points. AFC North favorites are 6-7 vs. spread, 3-6 at home; NFC South underdogs are 4-6, 3-3 on road. Bucs won two of three series games, winning 25-0 in last visit here; average series total is 28.0. Three of last four games for both teams went over total. Ravens host arch-rival Steelers last week, making this trap game for them. Bucs allowed one TD on 22 drives (seven 3/outs) over last two games.

Eagles (7-3) @ Bears (7-3)—Both teams are 3-0 since their bye, with Eagles scoring 37.3 ppg (11 TDs on 33 drives), while Bears allowed just 10.7 ppg (gave up one TD on 21 drives in last two games). Eagles are 4-1 on road, and led in 4th quarter of only loss (@ Titans); they’ve run ball for 201 ypg over last three games. Bears allowed total of 155 yards on 54 rushes in last three games, a stat that will be sorely tested with elusive Vick on other side of ball. Philly is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning five of last six played here (former QB McNabb is from Chicago). Average total in last six series games is 30.5. Five of last six Philly games went over total; under is 6-1-1 in last eight Chicago games. Bears are 4-1 against spread as an underdog this year.

Packers (7-3) @ Falcons (8-2)—To me, these are two best teams in NFC. Road team won four of last five series games; Pack lost four of last five visits to Atlanta, but this is just their second visit here in last 18 years. Well-coached Falcons won eight of last nine games (lost 31-17 @ Philly), scoring 31.5 ppg during 4-game win streak, during which they’ve converted on 36 of 64 (56.3%) of 3rd down plays. Packers allowed only one TD on 31 drives in last three games, outscoring foes 85-10; they’re 3-2 on road. All three Pack losses this year are by 3 points. Atlanta is 5-0 at home, with last four home wins all by 7 or less points; they’re 5-3 vs spread as favorite. Eagles have 12 takeaways (+10) in last four games. Last five Falcon games all went over the total.

Dolphins (5-5) @ Raiders (5-5)—Thigpen’s first ’10 start didn’t go well, as Fish gained just 187 yards and never got inside Chicago red zone in 16-0 loss, but they had three extra days to prep for this, which could help (Falcons/ Ravens both covered last week, after playing Thursday game week before). Dolphins are 4-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-4 if they don’t. Raiders are 4-1 at home (2-1 as home fave), scoring 30.3 ppg in last three home games. Fish are 4-1 on road, losing only at Miami. Dolphins are 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning four of last five played here, but their last visit here was in ’05. AFC West home favorites are 7-3 vs. spread; AFC East road underdogs are 8-2. All five Miami road games stayed under total.

Chiefs (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5)—Chiefs are 1-4 on road, losing last four while allowing 31.5 ppg; they’re 6-1 if they allow 20 or less points. Seattle lost three of last four games, allowing 15 TDs on 45 drives; with five losses by 15+ points, only time they look like 1st-place squad is when you look at NFL standings. Hawks have only four TDs on last 21 trips to red zone (12 FGs, 3.05 ppp). Home side won six of last seven series games, with Chiefs losing four of last five visits here, but this is their first visit since 2002. AFC West teams are 5-9 vs. spread in non-division road games. NFC West home teams are 7-6, with underdogs 9-4 vs spread in those games. Last three Kansas City games, five of last six Seahawks games went over the total.

Rams (4-6) @ Broncos (3-7)—Denver got crushed in San Diego Monday night, has now lost 15 of last 20 games for first time since 1972. Home side won last seven series games; Rams lost last three visits here by 11-21-7 points, with last Mile High win back in ’79. Broncos are 2-3 at home, with average total in those games 56.0- they’re 1-1 as favorite. Rams are 0-4 on road, but three of those losses are by 3 or less points; this is first of three straight road games for Rams, so they better figure out how to win on road, or they’ll fall out of contention, even in awful NFC West. In two games since their bye, Rams are just 3-24 on 3rd down, as teams are clamping down on Amendola, and no other receiver has stepped up to make plays. Over is 7-3 in Denver games this season.

Chargers (5-5) @ Colts (6-4)—Surging San Diego won four of last five in series, beating Indy in both ‘07/’08 playoffs; Chargers won six of last eight visits here. Bolts won last three games overall, scoring 33-29-35 points (13 TDs on 31 drives); their +10 advantage in field position Monday was only second time this year they had edge there, so they must’ve worked on special teams during bye week. Colts are 4-0 at home, scoring 27.5 ppg; they’re -7 in turnovers in their four losses, +10 in wins. San Diego has only two takeaways in its last six games (-10). Colts lack balance on offense, running for just 62-76-71 yards in last three games. Chargers are underdog for first time this season. Last three Indy home games stayed under total.

49ers (3-7) @ Cardinals (3-7)—Arizona is 0-5 since its bye, giving up 33 ppg in last four games; they lost last two home games, have 21 penalties in last two games and lost field position battle in last three games, by 17-13-5 yards. 49ers are 0-4 in true road games (won at neutral London site), losing by 25-21-2-3 points- they’re 1-6 when they score less than 23 points. Arizona has only four offensive TDs on 34 drives in last three games, during which opponents started eight drives in Cardinal territory, while Arizona started only one on enemy grounds. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Niners converted just 3-23 on 3rd down in last two games; they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Eight of last nine Cardinal games went over total.

[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 25

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What Bettors Need to Know
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New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+6.5, 50.5)

Set Up For A Letdown

If any team in the NFL is ripe for a letdown, it's the New England Patriots.

Fresh off back-to-back wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots have a quick turnaround as they hit the road to pay a visit to the Detroit Lions on Thursday.

On paper, it looks like a cakewalk for New England (8-2), which is tied for first place in the AFC East and is facing a Lions team with the second-worst record (2-8) in the NFC.

Not to mention Detroit is down to its second-string quarterback and might be forced to start its third-string tailback for its traditional Thanksgiving Day matchup.

Of course, Patriots coach Bill Belichick can quell any feelings of overconfidence by reminding his team what happened the last time it faced a seemingly overmatched opponent on the road.

New England got run over by Peyton Hillis and the Cleveland Browns 34-14 on Nov. 7, a lopsided defeat that snapped a five-game winning streak.

Even if they have one, it might be tough to lose to Detroit.

The Patriots go into Thursday’s game with an 8-2 record following wins over Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. The Lions enter their annual Thanksgiving Day home game at 2-8 after losses to Buffalo, which entered that game winless, and Dallas, which had just two victories at the time.

New England coach Bill Belichick said the Lions’ familiarity with the traditional holiday game should help them.

Not enough, apparently. Detroit has lost its past six Thanksgiving matchups by an average of 23 points, none by fewer than 11.

Never one to let complacency creep in, Belichick is stressing to his players that five of the Lions losses this season have been by five points or fewer.

“He really stays on top of us,” wide receiver Wes Welker told the Detroit Free Press of coach Belichick, “and makes sure that were not getting overconfident or believing in the noise outside the locker room and understand that every game’s tough in the NFL.”

Better Than You Think

The Lions are not the pushovers that their record indicates. Four of their losses have been by three points or less, and they had the New York Jets - co-AFC East leaders with the Patriots - on the ropes before blowing a 10-point lead in the last three minutes of regulation and losing in overtime on Nov. 7.

Detroit is coming off its third consecutive defeat, a 35-19 loss in Dallas in which it trailed by two points entering the fourth quarter.

With a non-existent running game due to injuries to rookie Jahvid Best, quarterback Shaun Hill has been forced to throw the ball 97 times in the last two weeks. Best, who is dealing with turf toe in both feet, may sit out Thursday. Maurice Morris is expected to start in his place.

Making his second straight start in place of an injured Matthew Stafford, Hill was 32 of 47 for 289 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Cowboys.

Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has been the one constant for the Lions. He has 55 receptions for 725 yards and 10 touchdowns – nine of them coming in the last seven games.

Tom Terrific

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is coming off consecutive superb outings. He was an economical 19 of 25 for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 31-28 victory over the Colts.

In the previous week’s 39-26 blowout of the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Brady threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns. He had not been intercepted in three straight games and has been picked off only four times against 19 scoring passes.

New England’s running game turned in one of its better efforts of the season with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing for 96 yards on 21 carries and Danny Woodhead chipping in with 69 yards on seven rushes. Each found the end zone as well.

Trends

The over is a combined 15-5 in New England and Detroit games this season.

The Pats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.

The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their home games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.


Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (-9, 42.5)

Too Close For Comfort

The New York Jets may be able to skip their Houdini act this week. It helps when the opponent has already disappeared.

The Jets will look to stay atop the AFC East when they go for their fourth consecutive victory against the reeling Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving Day at the New Meadowlands Stadium.

The Jets have been living on the edge this month, registering three straight teeth-gnashing victories, including back-to-back overtime victories at Cleveland and Detroit.

New York extended the winning streak to three Sunday by rallying for a last-second 30-27 victory over the Houston Texans. Mark Sanchez's 6-yard scoring pass to Santonio Holmes with 10 seconds to play provided the margin of victory.

It didn’t appear any late theatrics would be needed after the Jets went ahead 23-7 nine seconds into the fourth quarter, but Houston ripped off 20 unanswered points, forcing Sanchez to drive New York 72 yards in the final 49 seconds for the winning touchdown.

The Texans’ fourth-quarter comeback underscored some of the problems of the Jets’ defense, which has allowed just five of their last six opponents to score at least put up at least points.

Crouching Tigers

Cincinnati (2-8) staggers into town riding a seven-game losing streak that has it tied with the Buffalo Bills for the worst record in the AFC.

The demoralized Bengals hit a low point last week when they coughed up a 31-14 halftime lead and allowed the one-win Bills to outscore them 35-0 in the second half.

Cincinnati lost three-quarters of its defensive backfield to injuries in the game and was powerless to stop Buffalo’s passing game. The Bengals signed two cornerbacks – Jonathan Wade and Fred Bennett – off the street Monday and Tuesday.

Quarterback Carson Palmer was in a walking boot Tuesday but is expected to start against the Jets. He was 18 of 36 for 146 yards with one touchdown and one interception in last season’s playoff loss to New York.

Seasonal Changes

New York squeaked into the playoffs last season, rolling to a 37-0 rout of a Bengals team that had nothing to play for in the regular-season finale.

The teams had a rematch in the wild-card round of the playoffs one week later, and again the Jets got the best of Cincinnati with a 24-14 victory. The teams have been going in opposite directions since.

The defending AFC North champions have been among the league's biggest disappointments this season - and the team most responsible for their spiral may be the Jets (8-2).

The defense has been in shambles overall for Cincinnati, allowing 262 points in 10 games after surrendering 291 for the entire 2009 season, when it went 6-0 against AFC North foes.

Matchup To Watch

One of the bright spots for the Bengals this season has been the play of wideout Terrell Owens, who has 62 receptions for 897 yards and a team-high eight touchdowns.

Owens renewed his rivalry with Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, who called him a “slouch” following a pair of matchups last season.

Owens responded by telling reporters this week that Revis is "just an average corner."

Trends

These two teams have played four times since 2007 and the Jets are 3-1 SU and ATS in those games.

Cincinnati carries a seven-game losing streak into Thursday matchup and is 1-6 ATS over the stretch. The over is also 5-2 during the Bengals' cold streak.

The over has been just as effective with the Jets. Gang Green has played over the total in eight of their last nine games.

Weather

There's a 50 percent chance of rain Thursday night in the Meadowlands and the game-time temperature is expected to be in the low to mid 40s.


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[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 25

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Game of the day: Saints at Cowboys
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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 50.5)

The Saints march into Dallas for one of the more intriguing Thanksgiving Day games in recent memory.

The defending champs appear to have shaken off any lasting Super Bowl hangover and arrive at Cowboys Stadium having won three straight. Drew Brees is coming off a four-touchdown performance, and the Saints (7-3, 5-5 ATS) hope to have Reggie Bush back in the lineup. That’s bad news for a Dallas defense, which has struggled in all facets this season.

The New Orleans defense has been spectacular and is getting healthy. The Saints are fourth in the NFL in points (17) and yards (291) allowed and have been especially stingy against the pass, allowing only 186 yards per game.

Like the Saints, things also are looking up for the Cowboys (3-7, 3-7 ATS), who have won two straight since coach Wade Phillips was replaced by Jason Garrett.

Dallas’ offense has found new life behind quarterback Jon Kitna. The longtime backup has distributed the ball to the Cowboys’ plethora of weapons, most notably wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant and emerging running back Felix Jones. The result has been a much more potent offense that has averaged 34 points in back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions.

The Cowboys whipped the then-13-0 Saints last season in New Orleans, but have lost three of the last four in the series dating back to 2003.

Statistically, the Saints are by far the superior team. They rank higher than the Cowboys in nearly every statistical category. But, for the past two weeks, Dallas has looked like a different team than the one that compiled those subpar stats. Plus, America’s Team is at home on Thanksgiving, a situation the Cowboys have covered the spread in four straight.

The Line

The Saints opened as 3-point road favorites, but it was quickly bet up to 3.5 with several 4’s on the board as of Wednesday.

New Orleans has played well on the road and has covered the spread 10 of its last 12 road games against teams with a losing home record. Dallas is 1-4 straight up at home this season.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games and 15-5 ATS in their 20 November games.

The Total

The total opened at 50.5 and had moved to 51 early in the week.

The Saints are averaging 23.5 and allowing 17 points per game. The Cowboys are scoring 22.9 and allowing 27.1.

The previous four meetings between the Saints and Cowboys have averaged 40 points per game.

The last seven games involving the Cowboys have gone over the total.

Injuries

Both teams are banged-up at the running back position.

For Dallas, Jones is day-to-day, trying to recover from a hip injury that forced him to leave Sunday’s game against the Lions. He did return in that game and questionable to play Thursday, but the short week didn’t help his cause. He did not participate in Tuesday’s practice.

The Saints hope to have Bush back for the first time since Week 2, when he broke a bone in his leg. Pierre Thomas, however, isn’t expected to play with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the last two months. To make things worse, running back Ladell Betts also is banged-up and missed Tuesday’s practice.

The Saints listed seven players on its injury report that had limited participation in this week’s practice.


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[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 25

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Tips and Trends
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New England Patriots at Detroit Lions [CBS | 12:30 PM ET]

PATRIOTS: (-7, O/U 51) After beating the Colts last week, it's widely considered that New England is the best team in the NFL. Today's game is trick for the Patriots though, as they are the traveling team on what is already a really short week. Coach Belichick is the best coach in the NFL, so one would assume his team will be ready today. The Patriots are 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS overall this season. The Patriots are 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year, with the same exact result in each. New England is 2-3-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Patriots are averaging 28.9 PPG this year, the best in the NFL. QB Tom Brady is having another MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for nearly 2,400 YDS and 19 TD's this season. 7 different receivers have caught a TD pass this year for New England. New England keeps winning games despite a rather poor defense. The Patriots are giving up nearly 399 YPG this year, the 3rd most in the NFL. The Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record. New England is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. The Patriots are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 PTS. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Patriots are 2-5 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - G Stephen Neal (shoulder) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27

LIONS: Detroit is one of the most talked about 2-8 SU teams in recent memory. That's because they are also an ATS darling at 7-3 ATS. In nearly every defeat this season, Detroit has been very competitive. The Lions are a team on the rise, and most sharp bettors realize this. The Lions are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS in home games this season. Even though they've lost 4 of their past 5 games SU, the Lions have gained more YDS than their opponent on 4 of those occasions. The Lions are averaging 23.4 PPG this season, despite being held to 20 PTS or fewer in their past 3 games. QB Shaun Hill is moving his offense down the field, they simply aren't putting points on the board. WR Calvin Johnson remains one of the best receivers in the game, as he has 725 receiving YDS and 10 TD's this season. In order to beat the Patriots today, the Lions will have to play their best defensive game of the season. Just 4 days ago, the Cowboys scored 35 PTS against Detroit. The Lions are 6-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf. The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Detroit is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games in November. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.

Lions are 4-0 ATS last 4 home games overall.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Jahvid Best (toe) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)



New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

SAINTS: (-4, O/U 50.5) New Orleans is playing their best football of the season, as they're riding a 3 game SU winning streak in which they've won each game by double digits. The Saints have turned a corner, and they have as good a shot as anyone in making a return trip to the Super Bowl. New Orleans is averaging 23.5 PPG, but that number is rising. The Saints have scored 34 PTS in each of their past 2 games, a season high. Revenge is clearly on the minds of the Saints, considering they lost to the Cowboys last season. New Orleans is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS overall this year. The Saints are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS overall on the road this season. QB Drew Brees has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this season, and has completed nearly 70% of his passes. New Orleans is allowing just 17 PPG this year, 4th best in the NFL. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in November. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. The Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New Orleans is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against the NFC. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.

Saints are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

COWBOYS: Dallas has won consecutive games for the first time this season. All it took was a head coaching change! The Cowboys look like a completely different team not behind Coach Garrett. Offensively, the Cowboys have scored 33 and 35 PTS respectively since the coaching change. Dallas is just 3-7 SU for the year, but they still believe they are in the playoff chase in the NFC. Dallas is also 3-7 ATS this season, with every game this season having the same exact SU and ATS result. The Cowboys are 2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Jon Kitna has done an admirable job filling in for injured star Tony Romo. Kitna has managed this Cowboys offense well, and has 10 TD's to show for it. WR Dez Bryant is emerging as a star, as he's caught 6 TD's in his past 6 games overall. Dallas still needs to improve defensively if they are to make an improbable run at a playoff berth. For the season, the Cowboys are giving up 27.1 PPG, 5th most in the NFL. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. Dallas is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the NFC. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall.

Cowboys are 15-5 ATS last 20 games played in November.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games played on fieldturf.

Key Injuries - RB Felix Jones (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20


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[jimbob04]

cheers

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 28

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NFL Total Bias: Week 12 over/under picks
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Vince Young should have known better than to mess with Jeff Fisher. He’s a guy who wrote the book on old school and sports a permanent duster that’s the envy of every Movember man.

So when VY texted an apology after he flipped out in last week’s game, which led to the team removing him from the practice facility so that they could have a talk about how to deal with their troubled quarterback earlier this week, Fisher’s reaction was predictable.

"I'm not a real big text guy," Fisher told the Tennessean. "I'm not really into this new-age stuff. I don't Twitter or tweet, but I think face-to-face is a man thing."

Which leaves us wondering when did it all go so terribly wrong for these Tennessee Titans?

At one point they were sitting pretty at 5-2 and had piled up at least 30 points in three consecutive wins over Dallas, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Fisher’s boys could have gone into the bye 6-2 with a win over the Chargers in Week 8, but they couldn’t contain San Diego’s offense after jumping out to a 19-7 lead in the first half.

Now the Titans have now dropped their last three straight up and against the number, culminating with the sideline drama in last week’s game between Fisher and Vince Young.

That relationship between the pair obviously had some problems long before the fallout, which was likely just one factor in Tennessee’s slide. Kenny Britt, an excellent red-zone receiver, went down with injury to pave the way for the Randy Moss acquisition but so far that isn’t working out either.

Now the Titans are expected to start rookie quarterback Rusty Smith with Kerry Collins sidelined with a hamstring injury.

But after a week that has to be seen as the breaking point in Tennessee’s season, you know what Jeff Fisher’s going to do. He’s going hitch his wagon to Chris Johnson and the Titans defense.

What else can he do at this point?

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5, 45.5)

I’d feel a lot more comfortable with this total if Collins was taking the snaps for the Titans. Smith faces a soft Texans defense, but he’ll feel some pressure at times with Mario Williams in his face and I think that could result in some turnovers.

I also can’t see the Titans defense rebounding against a Texans offense that has put up at least 30 points in four of the last six, with four of those games playing over the total. This is also the lowest total Houston has seen since Week 6.

Pick: Over


Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (-10, 37.5)

Carolina’s terrible offense continues to keep the books turning out basement-level totals, but the Panthers have played over in each of their last two.
Jimmy Clausen and Jonathan Stewart are back practicing and look ready to contribute. Bad news is that they’re still the Panthers.

The Browns look like they’ll go with Jake Delhomme, who’s coming off a high ankle sprain – not that he’s any sort of an upgrade. Delhomme had a quarterback rating of 48.8 before he was injured with one touchdown to go along with his four picks.

I think this game is going to end up being decided on the ground, but this total still looks low.

Pick: Over


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 41)

Josh Freeman will have a tough time against the Ravens this week, but he won’t back down. He was as efficient as he needed to be last week as the Bucs hammered the 49ers 21-0 and now has 14 touchdown pass with only five interceptions. Call me crazy, but I think the rookie Mike Williams is going to get his, even if it is against Ed Reed’s secondary.

And he’d better because Ray Rice is due to bust loose as well after he hit paydirt for the first time in five weeks against the Panthers. Rice now reloads for a date with Tampa Bay’s 29th-ranked rush defense.

If he gets going early, Joe Flacco is in for a nice day working off play-action and the first guy he’s looking to is Anquan Boldin. The big wideout has been quiet, but they’re going to need him down the stretch. I see a couple turnovers and big plays here.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 16-18


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 28

Game 215-216: Minnesota at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.119; Washington 129.430
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Pittsburgh at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.088; Buffalo 126.768
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 43
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Over

Game 219-220: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.399; Houston 131.238
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.147; NY Giants 134.289
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5; 48
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Carolina at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 121.652; Cleveland 128.701
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 33
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+10 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.550; Baltimore 135.364
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7 1/2); Under

Game 227-228: Philadelphia at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.887; Chicago 132.372
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

Game 229-230: Green Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 135.768; Atlanta 139.930
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Over

Game 231-232: Miami at Oakland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 134.290; Oakland 134.373
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 233-234: Kansas City at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 129.550; Seattle 125.715
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.108; Denver 129.117
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Denver by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+4); Under

Game 237-238: San Diego at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.139; Indianapolis 134.682
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 239-240: San Francisco at Arizona (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 124.887; Arizona 126.959
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Over

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 28

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Tips and Trends
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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons [FOX | 1:00 PM ET]

PACKERS: Green Bay has won their past 4 games SU, with their most dominant performance coming in their most recent game. The Packers drilled the Brett Favre led Vikings, winning 31-3 SU. Green Bay is 7-3 SU, and widely considered a threat to win the Super Bowl this year. The Packers are 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. Green Bay has only been the listed underdog once this season, a SU road win against the Jets. QB Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding this year, throwing for more than 2,600 YDS and 19 TD's. WR Greg Jennings has more than 700 receiving YDS and 9 TD's this year for the Packers. Green Bay has surprised people with their defensive pressure this year. The Packers have a relentless pass rush that has been dominating opposing offenses all season long. Green Bay is allowing just 14.6 PPG, tied for the NFL best. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in November. The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on fieldturf. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Packers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Packers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the NFC.

Packers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - S Atari Bigby (hamstring) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 24

FALCONS: (-1, O/U 47.5) Atlanta has the best record in the NFC at 8-2 SU. The Falcons can't relax though, because they are playing in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Atlanta is coming off a great performance, a 34-17 SU road win over the Rams. Atlanta is dominant at home yet again this year, going 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS. Today's game represents the lowest opening line that Atlanta has faced this season. QB Matt Ryan has really emerged as the leader of this Falcons offense this year. Ryan has thrown for more than 2,500 YDS, as well as 18 TD's against 5 INT's this season. Atlanta is averaging 25.6 PPG this year, 6th best in the NFL. Only 3 opponents have scored more than 21 PTS against the Falcons this year. Atlanta is allowing just 19.2 PPG this s year, 7th best in the league. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on fieldturf. The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in November.

Falcons are 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - DE John Abraham (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)


San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts [NBC | 8:25 PM ET]

CHARGERS: San Diego has won a season best 3 consecutive games, as they work themselves back into the playoff chase after yet another poor start to the season. The Chargers are 5-5 both SU and ATS this season, with the exact same result in each game played this season. San Diego has really struggled on the road, going just 1-4 both SU and ATS. Tonight will mark the 1st time this season that San Diego is the listed underdog. QB Phillip Rivers is having one of the best seasons any QB has ever had in he NFL. Rivers has thrown for nearly 3,200 YDS while completing better than 65% of his passes. Rivers has also thrown 23 TD's this season, and has a QB Rating of 105 this year. RB Mike Tolbert has really come on of late, giving the Chargers a smashmouth RB that can pick up key short yardage. San Diego is scoring 27.4 PPG, 3rd most in the NFL. The Chargers defense has been fantastic in their own right, allowing an NFL low 270.7 YPG this season. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. San Diego is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Chargers are 6-0 ATS last 6 games played in November.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Vincent Jackson (suspension) is probable.

Projected Score: 20

COLTS: (-3, O/U 51.5) Indianapolis is coming off a heartbreaking road loss to New England, in which Peyton Manning threw an INT in the final minute. The Colts are no doubt excited to be back at home, where they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Indianapolis is 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS overall this season. The Colts have really struggled when playing the Chargers of late, losing 4 of their past 5 meetings SU. In all but one of those cases, Indianapolis was the listed favorite. Manning has thrown for more than 3,000 YDS this season with 20 TD's. The Colts are averaging 26.8 PPG this year, 4th most in the NFL. Manning will have to have another big game if the Colts are to beat what is widely considered to be their arch nemesis. Indianapolis has been rather inconsistent defensively this season. The Colts are allowing 21.6 PPG and 345 YPG this year. The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in November. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. The Colts are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as the listed favorite. Indianapolis is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the AFC.

Colts are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games as the home favorite.

Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (shoulder) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)


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[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 28

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Sunday Night Football: Chargers at Colts
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San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 51.5)

There has been plenty of praise for Peyton Manning's ability to carry an Indianapolis Colts offense that has been decimated by injuries.

Blasphemous as it may sound, there's another NFL quarterback who is doing a bit more with a bit less than Manning this season.

A marquee quarterback matchup will be on tap when Philip Rivers leads the resurgent San Diego Chargers into Indianapolis on Sunday night to face Manning and the Colts.

Odds

Oddsmakers opened the line for Sunday Night Football with the Colts as 3-point home favorites. However, sharp action dropped the spread below the key field-goal number to 2.5. About 61 percent of action has been on Indianapolis as of Saturday afternoon.

The total opened at 51.5 and has remained steady heading into Sunday.

New kid in town

While much attention has been focus on Manning's ability to keep the Colts (6-4, 6-3-1 ATS) in contention despite injuries that have ravaged his receiving corps and backfield, the four-time Most Valuable Player has nothing on Rivers.

After the Chargers came out of the gate with a typical slow start to the season, stumbling to a 2-5 record, Rivers has guided San Diego (5-5, 5-5 ATS) to three straight victories and back in the mix in the AFC West.

Injuries and holdouts have also crippled the Chargers' offense. Their two leading receivers, Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee, have been sidelined multiple games by hamstring injuries.

Tight end Antonio Gates, who was off to a superb start to the season with nine touchdown passes in eight games, is likely to miss his third consecutive contest Sunday with a torn plantar fascia.

And rookie running back Ryan Mathews, the team's first-round draft choice, also has been hindered by injuries, missing two games and earning double-digit carries in just three contests.

Despite it all, Rivers leads the league in yards passing (3,177) and touchdowns (23) and is second to Michael Vick in passer rating (105.0). He already had five 300-yard passing games on the season.

During the three-game winning streak, Rivers has been magnificent with 10 scoring passes against three interceptions, including back-to-back games of four touchdown passes in his last two outings.

He carved up Denver in a 35-14 rout on Monday night to get San Diego back to the .500 mark.

The Chargers’ vaunted passing game will get a major boost Sunday with the return of Pro Bowler Vincent Jackson, who will make his season debut after sitting out the first 10 games due to a contract squabble and suspension.

Jackson has recorded consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to go with 16 touchdown receptions over the past two seasons, and hr gives Rivers a big target with his imposing 6-5, 245-pound frame.

Colts collapse?

Manning is No. 2 in the league in passing yards (3,059) despite having to go without two of his favorite targets in tight end Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. Clark is done for the season while Collie has been in and out of the lineup. He will sit out Sunday with concussion-like symptoms.

Running back Joseph Addai has missed the last four games with a neck injury and likely will sit out again Sunday. His backups also have been hurting, forcing Manning to go to the air at least 43 times in seven games this season.

The Colts have lost two of their last three, come up short in shootouts with the Philadelphia Eagles (26-24) three weeks ago and New England Patriots (31-28) last week.

The Chargers have won four of the past five meetings between the clubs.

Trends

- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Indianapolis.
- Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
- Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
- Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.


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