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Cnotes Week # 12 NCAAF Best Bets 11/16-11/20 !

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  • Cnotes Week # 12 NCAAF Best Bets 11/16-11/20 !

    Badgers favored on road at Wolverines

    Seventh-ranked Wisconsin (9-1 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) is hoping to reverse a recent trend in Saturday’s matchup at Michigan (7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS). The home team has won the previous six meetings SU, while going 4-1-1 ATS. The Badgers are still in the running for their first Rose Bowl berth since 2000 while the Wolverines are trying to improve their bowl position.

    Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State are all atop the Big Ten standings with identical records. If all three schools win out, then the team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series will be the conference representative. The Badgers are currently the highest ranked team, followed by ninth-ranked Ohio State and 12th-ranked Michigan State.

    Don Best's Real-Time Odds lists Wisconsin as 5 ½-point road ‘chalk’ over Michigan, but that line has since moved to seven. There is no total yet posted on this contest. ESPN will provide coverage of Saturday’s Big Ten matchup beginning at 9:00 a.m. PT from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.

    Wisconsin enters this matchup having won its last five games SU and past four ATS after embarrassing Indiana last weekend as a 22 ½-point home favorite, 83-20. The combined 103 points soared ‘over’ the 57 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 5-1-1 during the previous seven games.

    Both teams scored in every quarter, but the Badgers enjoyed their best offensive performance in 95 years. Wisconsin dominated the Hoosiers across the board, finishing the contest with advantages in first downs (28-13), rushing yards (338-167), passing yards (260-149), turnovers forced (3-0) and time of possession (32:27-27:33).

    Quarterback Scott Tolzien was 15-of-18 passing for 181 yards with three touchdowns before giving way to his backup. Running back Montee Ball had 22 carries for 167 yards and three scores in the rout, while wideout Jared Abbrederis caught two passes for 79 yards and a touchdown.

    Michigan has strung together back-to-back SU victories after beating Purdue last weekend as 13-point road ‘chalk,’ 27-16. The combined 43 points never seriously threatened the 60 ½-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘over’ outings. The Wolverines have now failed to cover their last six games.

    Michigan concluded the contest with advantages in first downs (21-12), rushing yards (202-124), passing yards (193-132) and time of possession (31:47-28:13). Quarterback Denard Robinson had four turnovers (two fumbles, two interceptions), but finished the contest by completing 13-of-21 passes for 176 yards with a touchdown along with 22 carries for 68 yards.

    Wisconsin beat Michigan last season as an 8 ½-point home favorite, 45-24, while the combined 69 points went ‘over’ the 54 ½-point closing total. The Wolverines slipped past the Badgers two years ago as a 4 ½-point home underdog, 27-25, while the combined 52 points eclipsed the 42 ½-point closing total.

    Wisconsin running back John Clay (knee injury) and center Peter Konz (ankle) are ‘questionable’ versus the Wolverines. The Badgers wrap up their regular season after this matchup with a home game against Northwestern.

    Michigan running back Michael Shaw (head) is ‘questionable’ against the Badgers, while nose tackle Mike Martin (ankle) and linebacker Jonas Mouton (chest) are ‘probable.’ The Wolverines conclude their regular season Nov. 27 with their annual rivalry game against Ohio State.

    Wisconsin has seen the ‘over’ go 7-1-1 its last nine Big Ten matchups, and the ‘over’ is 9-3 its previous 12 road games. The Badgers are 6-1-1 ATS the previous eight meetings with Michigan. The Wolverines are just 5-21 their past 26 conference games, while the ‘over’ is 14-6-1 their last 21 games in November.

    Saturday’s forecast for Ann Arbor calls for mostly cloudy skies and a 20 percent chance of rain, with a high of 50 degrees and a low of 37.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Cal and Stanford play 113th Big Game

    The Stanford Cardinal and California Golden Bears will meet in the 113th Big Game on Saturday in a contest with huge BCS implications.

    Bookmaker.com has Stanford as seven-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 51 ½-points.

    This Pac-10 rivalry is an intense as any in the country. Anything can happen when they meet, including ‘The Play’ in 1982 when Cal ran back a kickoff return for the game-winning touchdown, running through the Stanford marching band that mistakenly came onto the field.

    The Golden Bears are just 5-5 straight-up this year and 6-4 against the college betting spread. Those numbers are misleading as they’re very good at home (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS). The latest example was a 15-13 loss to No. 1 Oregon last week, easily ‘covering’ the 18 ½-point spread.

    Cal had a chance to take a 16-15 lead early in the fourth quarter, but kicker Giorgio Tavecchio missed a 29-yard field goal. He made a 24-yarder just seconds earlier, but it was called back due to his own illegal motion penalty. Oregon then controlled the clock for most of the fourth quarter to secure the win.

    The California defense really showed a lot despite the loss. Oregon managed just 317 total yards and 15 points, way below its averages of 567.2 YPG and 54.7 PPG heading into the contest. Oregon hadn’t scored less than 42 points this year.

    The Golden Bears defense ranks 10th in the country in total yards (301.3 YPG). The problem is an offense that scores just 28.3 PPG (ranked 55th nationally) and doesn’t particularly run or pass very well.

    Senior quarterback Kevin Riley started the first eight games before a season-ending knee injury. Junior quarterback Brock Mansion has replaced him and is 36-of-77 (46.8 percent) for 381 yards for the year. He had just 69 passing yards against Oregon.

    Shane Vereen (998 yards) is a talented running back, but the Stanford defense will be keying on him.

    The ‘under’ is 3-0 in California’s last three games, with the offense scoring 13.33 PPG. Mansion played 11 of those 12 quarters with Riley getting hurt in the first quarter of the Oct. 30 Oregon State game.

    The Cardinal (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are ranked sixth in the BCS and are second in the Pac-10 (6-1) behind Oregon. They have a chance at the Rose Bowl if Oregon makes the national title game, but could also end up in the Alamo Bowl. Cal needs to win one of its final two games to be bowl eligible.

    Stanford was fortunate to get a 17-13 win at Arizona State last week. That was the first time quarterback Andrew Luck and the offense was held under 31 points this season. Luck did engineer the winning drive with 5:14 left.

    The offense was missing receiver Chris Owusu (394 yards, 16.4 yards per catch). He’s questionable this week as well with an undisclosed injury.

    Stanford is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three games after ‘pushing’ the four-point spread at Arizona State. The ‘over’ is 6-4 this year even with the offense scoring 39.8 PPG (ranked ninth nationally). A defense allowing just 20 PPG (27th nationally) and some high totals have limited the ‘overs.’

    Coach Jim Harbaugh is just 1-2 SU versus California, with the Golden Bears winning and ‘covering’ the last two. California is 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings overall. That coincides with coach Jeff Tedford taking over the program.

    The ‘over’ is 2-0 in the last two meetings after the ‘under’ went 6-0 in the previous six.

    This an early kickoff from the west coast at 12:30 p.m. (PT). Weather in Berkeley should be in the 50s with a chance of showers.

    Stanford will end the regular season with a home game against Oregon State next week. California will host Washington.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
      11/18/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
      11/17/10 0-4-0 0.00% -2200 Detail
      11/16/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
      11/13/10 25-23-0 52.08% -150 Detail
      11/12/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
      11/11/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
      11/10/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
      11/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
      11/06/10 18-28-0 39.13% -6400 Detail
      11/05/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
      11/04/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
      11/03/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
      11/02/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
      Totals 59-69-0 46.09% -8450

      Friday, November 19Game Score Status Pick Amount

      Fresno State - 9:30 PM ET Fresno State +29 500
      Boise State - Under 65.5 500
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Boise State favored by 30.5 over Fresno


        FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (6-3)

        at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (9-0)


        Kickoff: Friday, 9:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Boise State -30.5, Total: 65.5

        Boise State hosts a quality Fresno State team on Friday night in hopes it can move up the BCS ladder. The Bulldogs nearly knocked off Nevada last week in a back-and-forth 35-34 loss. The Broncos have won 23 straight games and rank fourth in the BCS standings behind Auburn, Oregon and TCU. They will need to continue to win by wide margins in an effort to move up to the BCS Championship Game.

        Fresno State ranks second in the WAC in passing defense, limiting its opponents to 194 passing YPG. Part of this success has been generated by the sixth-best pass rush in the nation (3.0 sacks per game). The Bulldogs can also put up points with 34.7 PPG on the year and at least 27 points in each of their nine games. Fresno State will try to keep this game close by establishing its impressive running game, averaging 239 YPG in the past four contests.

        Boise State ranks second in the nation in scoring offense (47.6 PPG) and fourth in total offense (530 YPG). The Broncos have scored 40 or more points in six straight games, covering the 36-point average spread in five of those contests. QB Kellen Moore continues to lead the country in passing efficiency (191.15) with 24 TD and just four interceptions. Moore has completed 72 percent of his pass attempts and has thrown at least two TD passes in all nine games this year.The running game has also been top-notch (16th in nation) led by junior Doug Martin who has 866 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, including two in last week’s 52-14 win at Idaho. In addition to its nation-leading scoring defense (12.8 PPG), Boise State ranks second in the country in both sacks (3.9 per game) and rushing defense (75 YPG).

        The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in the past nine games against the Bulldogs. The past four meetings on Boise’s blue turf haven’t been close, as the Broncos have won by an average of 34.5 PPG. The FoxSheets give three more big reasons to pick Boise State to cover the huge spread.

        Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).

        BOISE ST is 60-20 ATS (+38.0 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992.The average score was BOISE ST 43.8, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 4*).

        Pat Hill is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) off a home loss as the coach of FRESNO ST.The average score was FRESNO ST 25.6, OPPONENT 25.7 - (Rating = 3*).
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Saturday, November 20Game Score Status Pick Amount

          Pittsburgh - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
          South Florida -

          Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Penn State -10 500
          Indiana -

          West Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Louisville +3.5 500
          Louisville -

          Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Boston College -7 500
          Boston College -

          Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State -20 500
          Michigan State -

          Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -4 500
          Michigan -

          North Carolina State - 12:00 PM ET North Carolina State +2.5 500
          North Carolina -

          Northern Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -14.5 500
          Ball State -

          Oklahoma State - 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -24 500
          Kansas -

          Troy - 12:21 PM ET South Carolina -20.5 500
          South Carolina -

          Appalachian State - 12:30 PM ET Florida -23 500
          Florida -

          East Carolina - 1:00 PM ET East Carolina -8 500
          Rice -

          Duke - 1:30 PM ET Duke +10 500
          Georgia Tech -

          Clemson - 2:00 PM ET Clemson -14 500
          Wake Forest -

          Texas El Paso - 2:00 PM ET Texas El Paso +17.5 500
          Tulsa -

          Eastern Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Buffalo -7 500
          Buffalo -

          Kent State - 2:00 PM ET Kent State +2.5 500
          Western Michigan -

          Colorado State - 2:00 PM ET Colorado State +2.5 500
          Wyoming -

          Kansas State - 2:10 PM ET Colorado +2 500
          Colorado -

          Weber State - 3:00 PM ET Texas Tech -25 500
          Texas Tech -

          Idaho - 3:00 PM ET Idaho +2.5 500
          Utah State -

          Marshall - 3:00 PM ET Marshall +13.5 500
          Southern Methodist -

          Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Illinois -7.5 500
          Northwestern -

          Florida Atlantic - 3:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +21.5 500
          Texas -

          Ohio State - 3:30 PM ET Iowa +3 500
          Iowa -

          Virginia Tech - 3:30 PM ET Miami +2 500
          Miami -

          North Texas - 3:30 PM ET UL Monroe +1 500
          UL Monroe -

          Stanford - 3:30 PM ET Stanford -6.5 500
          California -

          Central Florida - 3:30 PM ET Central Florida -18.5 500
          Tulane -

          Arkansas State - 3:30 PM ET Navy -12 500
          Navy

          Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Louisiana State -14.5 500
          Louisiana State -

          Memphis - 4:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham -19.5 500
          Alabama-Birmingham -

          New Mexico State - 4:05 PM ET Nevada -37.5 500
          Nevada -

          Middle Tennessee St. - 4:15 PM ET Western Kentucky +5 500
          Western Kentucky -

          New Mexico - 6:00 PM ET Brigham Young -29.5 500
          Brigham Young -

          Missouri - 7:00 PM ET Iowa State +11 500
          Iowa State -

          Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse -4 500
          Syracuse -

          Florida International - 7:00 PM ET Florida International -10 500
          UL Lafayette -

          Arkansas - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas -3 500
          Mississippi State -

          Army - 7:00 PM ET Army +8.5 500
          Notre Dame -

          Tennessee - 7:30 PM ET Tennessee -8.5 500
          Vanderbilt -

          Rutgers - 7:30 PM ET Rutgers +13.5 500
          Cincinnati -

          Florida State - 8:00 PM ET Maryland +3.5 500
          Maryland -

          Oklahoma - 8:00 PM ET Baylor +7 500
          Baylor -

          Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET Texas A&M +2 500
          Texas A&M -

          Southern California - 8:00 PM ET Oregon State +3 500
          Oregon State -

          Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston +3.5 500
          Southern Mississippi -

          Utah - 10:00 PM ET San Diego State +2.5 500
          San Diego State -

          San Jose State - 10:30 PM ET Hawaii -29.5 500
          Hawaii -
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Royster, Chappell expected to play Saturday


            PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (6-4)
            vs. INDIANA HOOSIERS (4-6)

            Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT – FedEx Field (Landover, MD)
            Line: Penn State -10.5, Total: 56.5

            Despite injury concerns earlier in the week, both Penn State and Indiana will have their star players ready to go when they meet Saturday afternoon at FedEx Field in Maryland. Nittany Lions RB Evan Royster (knee) and Hoosiers QB Ben Chappell (hip) have both been upgraded to probable for Saturday. Penn State has never lost to Indiana, winning all 13 meetings between the schools.

            ******* take:
            Royster has had a drop-off in his senior season with 78 rushing YPG and three 100-yard games. As a junior, Royster averaged 90 rushing YPG with six 100-yard games. Indiana could be just what the doctor ordered for a bust-out game. Royster gained 134 total yards and scored two touchdowns in last season’s 31-20 win over the Hoosiers. With Indiana currently ranked 92nd in the nation in rushing defense (183 YPG), expect a big performance from Royster. Also, Penn State has rushed for at least 130 yards in all 13 series meetings.

            The Hoosiers are coming off an absolute beat-down at Wisconsin last week, 83-20. Since torching Michigan for 480 yards and three touchdowns, Chappell has been pretty ineffective, throwing for just 3 TD and 7 INT in his past five conference games. Chappell did have a nice game against Penn State last year, completing 63 percent of his passes for 298 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. However, this year the Lions have a top-20 pass defense, allowing just 185 passing YPG, including a mere 177 YPG in their past three games.

            Although Penn State has won all 13 meetings, the Lions haven’t covered against the Hoosiers since 2003. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS in that four-meeting stretch. This year is different because the Hoosiers, who are 0-6 in conference play, are still reeling from last week’s blowout loss at Wisconsin. The FoxSheets show that Indiana is not likely to recover from the loss, making Penn State the pick on Saturday:

            INDIANA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored since 1992. The average score was INDIANA 12.7, OPPONENT 36.0 - (Rating = 2*).

            These two FoxSheets coaching trends expect the game to finish Under the Total.

            Joe Paterno is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of PENN ST. The average score was PENN ST 30.3, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*).

            Paterno is 34-15 UNDER (69.4%, +17.5 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game as the coach of PENN ST. The average score was PENN ST 30.3, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 2*).
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              Ponder will start Saturday at Maryland


              FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (7-3)
              at MARYLAND TERRAPINS (7-3)

              Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
              Line: Florida State -4, Total: 51.5

              QB Christian Ponder will return to the starting lineup on Saturday night when Florida State travels to Maryland. Ponder missed last week’s game against Clemson after rupturing the bursa sac near his right elbow. Backup quarterback E.J. Manuel is also expected to receive some snaps since Ponder is not fully healed. FSU will be without RB Jermaine Thomas, who will not play because of a knee injury.

              ******* take:
              Manuel played pretty well in leading the ‘Noles to the 16-13 victory over Clemson last week. He completed 15-of-24 passes for 210 yards and rushed for 71 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown. Ponder has had a solid season with a career-high 16 TD passes and four rushing touchdowns. He was injured for the game against Maryland last year, but he played a key role in FSU’s 37-3 blowout win at College Park in 2008. In that game, Ponder completed 19-of-24 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown, and added 81 yards and another score on the ground. Thomas had a stretch of three great games to open ACC play this year (288 rush yds, 4 TD), but has only received 20 total carries over the past four games.

              Maryland is 4-0 at home this year and is currently riding a four-game ATS winning streak. During this four game stretch, Maryland has a +8 turnover margin with just one giveaway and nine takeaways.

              The Seminoles are 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) in the past 18 meetings between these schools. The FoxSheets give another reason to pick Florida State to win again on Saturday:

              Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game.(54-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*).

              These two FoxSheets coaching trends expect the game to finish Under the Total.

              Ralph Friedgen is 21-6 UNDER (+14.4 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of MARYLAND. The average score was MARYLAND 24.4, OPPONENT 20.9 - (Rating = 3*).

              Friedgen is 33-13 UNDER (71.7%, +18.7 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of MARYLAND. The average score was MARYLAND 23.0, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 3*).
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #8
                USC RB Tyler to start at Oregon State


                USC TROJANS (7-3)
                at OREGON STATE BEAVERS (4-5)

                Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
                Line: USC -3, Total: 58

                USC head coach Lane Kiffin named Marc Tyler as his starting running back when the Trojans visit Oregon State Saturday night. USC will not have the services of freshman RB Dillon Baxter who may have inadvertently been in contact with an agent.

                ******* take:
                Although Tyler leads the team in all rushing categories (135 carries, 786 yards, 9 TD), last week was the first time he received more than 20 carries in a game. Tyler ran for 160 yards on 31 carries (5.2 YPC) at Arizona last week, following up a 12-carry, 119-yard effort in the previous game against Arizona State. Allen Bradford (574 rush yds, 4 TD), the team’s second-leading rusher, has just four total carries over the past three games. Baxter ranks third on the team with 248 rushing yards and had 26 touches (20 carries, six receptions) over the past two weeks. Although USC’s rushing offense has been strong with a 200 YPG average, QB Matt Barkley has averaged 252 YPG through the air with 25 TD. Barkley had a big game in USC’s thrilling 42-36 win against OSU last year, throwing for 202 yards with two touchdowns (and 2 INT), and adding a rushing TD.

                The key for the Beavers to snap their two game losing-streak, including an embarrassing 31-14 home loss to Pac-10 doormat Washington State last week, is to create holes for Jacquizz Rodgers. The junior has not found the end zone during the two-game skid, rushing for just total 156 yards. However, Rodgers has feasted on USC in his career, with 299 rushing yards and four total TD in two games against the Trojans. Consdering the Trojans rank 96th in total defense this year, allowing 422 YPG, Rodgers is primed for a big night.

                The Trojans are 13-3 SU (9-7 ATS) in the past 16 meetings between these schools, but the home team is 6-1 (SU & ATS) in the past seven meetings. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick home underdog Oregon State to cover the spread on Saturday:

                Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON ST) - with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

                OREGON ST is 19-6 ATS (76.0%, +12.4 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OREGON ST 30.8, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 2*).
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #9
                  Murray, Broyles will start at Baylor


                  OKLAHOMA SOONERS (8-2)
                  at BAYLOR BEARS (7-4)

                  Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
                  Line: Oklahoma -7, Total: 64.5

                  Oklahoma’s top two offensive players will fight through injuries when the Sooners travel to Baylor on Saturday night. RB DeMarco Murray (arm/shoulder) and WR Ryan Broyles (sore ankles) are both expected to play their usual heavy workloads as Oklahoma looks to defeat Baylor for the 20th time in 20 all-time meetings. In addition to seeking their first-ever win against the Sooners, the Bears also look to snap a current two-game losing streak where they have allowed 97 points.

                  ******* take:
                  Despite the inconsistency of Oklahoma this season (5-5 ATS, alternating SU wins and losses in past five weeks), Murray and Broyles have been consistently excellent. Murray has scored in every game this year and his 17 total touchdowns are just one below the nation’s TD leaders. Murray has 482 yards from scrimmage and six total TD in three career games against Baylor. Broyles leads the nation with 94 catches and is third in the country in receiving yards (1,196) and tied for third with 11 TD receptions. With Baylor ranked 108th in the nation in passing defense (259 YPG), Broyles should have no trouble getting open for QB Landry Jones, who has thrown for 315 YPG with 27 TD and just six interceptions.

                  For the Bears to pull off the upset, senior RB Jay Finley will need to stay hot. Finley has rushed for 769 yards and 10 touchdowns in his past five games. Oklahoma has allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of its three road games this season.

                  The road team is 12-2 ATS in this series since 1992. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to expect Oklahoma to cover the touchdown spread on the road Saturday night:

                  Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. (60-25 since 1992.) (70.6%, +32.5 units. Rating = 3*).

                  Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game. (54-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +24.3 units. Rating = 2*).
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Michigan looks for rare ATS win vs. Wisconsin


                    WISCONSIN BADGERS (9-1)
                    at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (7-3)

                    Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Wisconsin -4, Total: 67

                    Michigan tries to snap a six-game ATS losing streak against a Wisconsin team going for six in row SU and five straight ATS. The Badgers were without their star RB John Clay last week, but Montee Ball and James White combined for 311 yards and five touchdowns in the 83-20 laugher against Indiana. Clay, who is bothered by a knee injury, is doubtful to suit up Saturday.

                    Michigan will have a tough time stopping Wisconsin’s rushing attack, as the Wolverines rank 75th in the country at 164 rushing YPG allowed. Michigan’s opponent has gained 120+ rushing yards in each of the past five games, averaging 202 YPG over that stretch. QB Denard Robinson has come down to earth recently, with just 130 rushing yards on 3.2 YPC over the past two weeks. In terms of throwing the football, Robinson has also struggled, with 7 TD and 8 INT in his past five contests.

                    In last year’s meeting, a 45-24 Wisconsin win, the Badgers tallied 229 rushing yards, but QB Scott Tolzien was the star with 240 passing yards and four touchdowns (plus one rushing TD). Tolzien, who is eighth in the nation in passing efficiency (160.95) this year, has completed 77 percent of his passes over the past five games. The Badgers run defense also has a tough challenge trying to contain Robinson and Michigan’s ninth-ranked rushing offense (266 YPG). They have not been up to the task recently, allowing 162 yards on the ground at Purdue and 167 against Indiana. Despite these numbers, Wisconsin still ranks a respectable 25th in the nation in rushing defense for the season (125 YPG).

                    The underdog is 6-1-1 in the past eight meetings between these schools, but Wisconsin is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The FoxSheets provide a five-star reason to pick against Michigan and play on Wisconsin Saturday:

                    Rich Rodriguez is 3-19 ATS (13.6%, -17.9 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 26.2, OPPONENT 32.6 - (Rating = 5*).

                    This FoxSheets four-star coaching trend points towards the Over in this game:

                    Bret Bielema is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of WISCONSIN. The average score was WISCONSIN 35.1, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 4*).
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Aggies go for fifth straight win Saturday night


                      NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (9-1)
                      at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-3)

                      Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Nebraska -2.5, Total: 54

                      Nebraska travels to College Station for what should be an entertaining affair Saturday night. The roller-coaster ride continues for Texas A&M as it started the year 3-0, then lost three straight. Now the Aggies are riding a four-game win streak, outscoring their opponents 165 to 86 over that stretch, with Ryan Tannehill leading the way at quarterback. Nebraska is 9-1 for the year, but it has not played well in back-to-back, non-covering wins over Iowa State and Kansas. However, the Blackshirts defense held the Jayhawks to 87 total yards (72 rushing and 15 passing) last week.

                      Nebraska ranks seventh in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 282 YPG. Roy Helu Jr. has 491 rushing yards and five touchdowns in the past three weeks and ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 99 rush YPG. QB Taylor Martinez ranks sixth in the conference in rushing (96 YPG), but hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since October 7, when he scored four at Kansas State.

                      Tannehill, who replaced preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Jerrod Johnson at QB, has thrown 10 touchdowns and led his team to 488 total YPG (312 pass YPG) during the four-game win streak. He led the Aggies to an impressive comeback win over Baylor last week after falling behind 30-14. RB Cyrus Gray, who scored the final three touchdowns in the comeback win, has rushed for 477 yards and eight TD during the four-game win streak. Although the streak has been impressive, none of the four teams can hold a candle to Nebraska’s defense, which ranks second among all FBS schools in pass defense (140 YPG) and is sixth in total yardage allowed (293 YPG).

                      Nebraska is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in the past seven meetings with Texas A&M. This FoxSheets trend thinks Nebraska will get the big road win Saturday night:

                      Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS A&M) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, in November games. (37-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.5%, +21.6 units. Rating = 2*).

                      This FoxSheets trend points towards the Over on Saturday night:

                      Play Over - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in November games.(82-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +42.4 units. Rating = 3*).
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                      • #12
                        good luck, Bum!

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