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Cribbs, Sims-Walker out for Browns-Jags game
CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-6)
at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Jacksonville -2, Total: 43
Two of the NFL’s surprise success stories meet up Sunday in Jacksonville. The Jags have gotten fine play of late from QB David Garrard (including a little luck with their hail-mary game winner last week), giving them a balanced offense. Defensively they could continue to struggle, especially with top pass rusher Aaron Kampman out for the season with a knee injury. The Browns should find success grinding it out with Peyton Hillis against an underwhelming Jacksonville front seven. Both teams will be without explosive wide receivers as Cleveland’s Josh Cribbs (dislocated toes) and Jacksonville’s Mike Sims-Walker (ankle) will be sidelined for Sunday’s game.
******* take:
Cribbs hasn’t been the special-teams weapon he was last year when he reeled off four return touchdowns. He has also not gained more than 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 3. The Browns will continue to ride Hillis who already has 982 total yards and nine touchdowns this year. Hillis has at least one touchdown in all but one game this year, and Jacksonville has allowed the second-most rushing TD (12) in the league behind Denver’s 14.
Sims-Walker has had an up-and-down season, but was riding a two-game high (11 rec., 191 yds, 2 TD) before getting hurt in last week’s game against Houston. Speaking of riding high, QB David Garrard is on fire since returning from a concussion. He is 41-of-52 for 602 yards and six touchdowns in the past two games. Expect the hot streak to continue against a Browns pass defense allowing 245 YPG on the season (tied for 23rd in NFL), including 273 YPG in the past four games.
The road team is 5-1 (SU and ATS) in the past six series meetings, and this FoxSheets trend points out that Cleveland is the pick again based on Jacksonville’s inability to cover as a home favorite.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 19.3, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 2*).
This four-star FoxSheets trend favors the Under.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 9.6, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 4*).Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Raiders travel to Pittsburgh seeking 4th straight win
OAKLAND RAIDERS (5-4)
at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Pittsburgh -7, Total: 40.5
The surprising 5-4 Raiders travel to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team still trying to recover from last week’s uninspiring performance against New England. When these teams met last November, Bruce Gradkowski threw for 308 yards, including three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 27-24 Oakland win. Although Gradkowski’s shoulder has finally healed, the Raiders will continue to start Jason Campbell under center. TE Zach Miller (foot) will play after missing the last game, but both CB Nnamdi Asomugha (ankle) and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (hamstring) are questionable for Sunday’s game. Steelers WR Hines Ward (concussion) is expected to start Sunday.
******* take:
The Raiders are winning games by running the football, but the Steelers have the edge in this matchup with the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense (63 YPG). Campbell has played very well during Oakland’s three-game winning streak with 743 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Having Miller back healthy gives Campbell a reliable red-zone target.
Pittsburgh is a lot more vulnerable in the air, allowing 273 passing YPG since Oct. 17. With Ward healthy and Asomugha playing with a bad ankle, Pittsburgh should also look to throw the football. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns playing catch-up last week, but did not complete a pass to the injured Ward.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) in the past seven series meetings, but this anti-Raiders FoxSheets trend likes Pittsburgh to win and cover.
Play Against - Any team (OAKLAND) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. (63-27 since 1983.) (70%, +33.3 units. Rating = 3*).
These two FoxSheets trends favor the Over.
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (OAKLAND, PITTSBURGH) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (82-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +42.4 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, with a winning record on the season. (36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*).Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Benson, Ochocinco questionable vs. Bills
Published: 11/21/2010 at 8:49:00 AM
BUFFALO BILLS (1-8)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-7)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Cincinnati -6, Total: 44
The Bengals could be without two key offensive players as they try to end their six-game losing skid in a matchup with 1-8 Buffalo. RB Cedric Benson (foot) and WR Chad Ochocinco (shoulder) are both listed as questionable. Both players are expected to suit up Sunday, but neither will be 100 percent.
******* take:
Like most of the Cincinnati team, both injured players have had sub-par seasons. Benson has only averaged 69 rushing YPG this season with one 100-yard game. Last year he averaged 96 rushing yards per game. Ochocinco, who said he couldn’t lift his arm up over his head earlier in the week, has had three great games (85+ yds, 1 TD in each) and six bad ones (under 60 yards, 0 TD) this season. Last year, he averaged 14.5 yards per catch and scored nine times, but those numbers have fallen to 11.9 and three touchdowns.
Despite the injuries, Cincinnati should still be able to gain serious yardage against Buffalo’s weak defense. The Bills have a league-low eight takeaways this season and have allowed a league-high 167 rushing YPG. To be fair, Buffalo has only allowed 47 points (15.7 PPG) in its past three games, which is a big improvement from its first six games (33.0 PPG). The Bills have also seen a progression in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who has thrown a touchdown pass in each of his seven games this year.
Buffalo has won the past seven meetings with Cincinnati, going 6-1 ATS over that stretch. These highly-rated FoxSheets trends give two more reasons to expect Buffalo to win again on Sunday.
Play On - Road teams (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season. (28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*).
CINCINNATI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 17.7, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 3*).
This FoxSheets trend leans towards the Under.
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. (66-34 since 1983.) (66%, +28.6 units. Rating = 2*).Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Tech Trends - Week 11
CHICAGO at MIAMI (Thursday, November 18)...Dolphins have now covered last 2 at home as they might be starting to turn around Sparano’s previous good road/bad home pattern (Miami had been 4-11 vs. line previous 15 at Sun Life Stadium). Bears "under" 6-2-1 TY, now "under" 16-8-1 in the Jay Cutler era since LY. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.
OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH...Teams don’t meet every year but Raiders have covered last 3 meetings including major upset at Heinz Field LY as 15-point dog. Oakland has covered its last 3 TY, and Raiders "over" 3-1 away TY. Steel "over" 51-28 last 79 at Heinz Field. Tech edge-slight to Raiders and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
HOUSTON at NY JETS... Texans have now failed to cover last 5 TY. Houston also "over" 8-3 last 11 on board. Jets winning the close ones that Texans aren’t. Jets now "over" 7-2 TY and "over" 11-3 last 14 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.
BALTIMORE at CAROLINA... Carolina now no covers last 3 or 7 of 9 TY. Panthers also "under" 3-1 at home in 2010 and now "under" 20-8 at Charlotte since 2007. Note Ravens 0-1 as road chalk TY and just 1-3 in role since LY. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Ravens, based on "totals" trends and Panther woes.
WASHINGTON at TENNESSEE... Titans bounced back with wins and covers after first two losses but fell short last week vs. Dolphins. Titans are also "over" 13-5-1 last 19 at LP Field. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DETROIT at DALLAS... Not much home-field edge for Jerry’s Cowboys TY, 0-4 SU and vs. line at Arlington. Lions, however, continue amazing pointspread run with covers in 8 of first 9 TY. Jerry Jones also "over" 4-0 at home TY, and Lions "over" 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA... Note that last five now "over" in this series, and Vikes "over" 5 of last 6 TY, although Pack "under" first 4 on road TY. Childress now no covers last 4 TY and 1-5 last 6 vs. number. Tech edge-Packers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at CINCINNATI... Cincy 0-2 as home chalk TY, 0-8 in role since LY. Now 5-19 overall as chalk since ‘07. Cincy also "under" 21-10 last 31 at home. For what it’s worth, Marvin Lewis 0-4 SU in career vs. Buffalo (no covers in last 3, althiugh this is first meeting since ‘07). Bills have covered last 3 as road dog TY. Tech edge-Bills and "under," based on team and series trends.
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE... Brownies have won and covered by identical 23-17 scores the past two years. Cleveland 11-4-1 vs. line last 16 on board since mid ‘09, a full season’s worth of games. Browns now "over" last 4 TY, Jags "over" 7-2 in 2010 and "over" 8-2 last 10 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARIZONA at KANSAS CITY... Whisenhunt only 1-3 as road dog TY but still 12-4 last 16 as dog. Cards "over" 8-2 last 10 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.
SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS... Seahawks have covered 2 of alst 3 on road after dropping 10 of previous 11 away vs. spread. Saints have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 as they shake from their own extended spread doldrums. Tech edge-slight to Saints, based on Seahawks road woes.
ATLANTA at ST. LOUIS... Recalling old NFC West days pre-2002. Rams have won and covered last 4 at home TY and have covered 6 of last 7 overall prior to SF on Sunday. Falcs have covered 5 of last 7 away and have gone "over" last 4 TY. Tech edge-Rams, based on recent home marks.
TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO... Bucs have covered first 4 on road TY and have now covered 6 straight and 8 of last 9 away. Singletary, however, 9-3-2 vs. line last 14 as host. Tech edge-slight to Bucs, based on recent trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND... Peyton Manning is now 5-1 SU last 6 vs. Belichick after losing previous 6 to Patriots. Belichick has covered the last 2 years after dropping previous 4 on line to Manning. Colts 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on road. Tech edge-Colts, based on team and "totals" trends.
NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA... Recent edge to Andy Reid, who has won and covered last four vs. G-Men. But NY has won and covered big its last 3 on road TY. Coughlin "over" 8-3 last 11 on road. Birds "over" 18-9 last 27 since late ‘08. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DENVER at SAN DIEGO (Monday, November 22)...Broncos have actually split the last 2 years vs. SD and won a Monday nighter at Qualcomm LY, wearing the old-style unis, 34-23. Still, Bolts 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 in series, and Broncos have only covered 2 of last 12 meetings since ‘04. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series, and Denver "over" last 7 as visitor. Norv "over" 9-4 at home since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bolts, based on "totals" and series trends.Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 21, 2010
Bears at Dolphins – The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since November 27, 1997 as a road dog when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 at home. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 21, 2002 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The League is 14-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since December 19, 2004 as a dog the week after when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties. The Dolphins are 0-9-1 OU (-10.2 ppg) since September 20, 1992 as a home favorite when they are one game above 500 after a straight up win.
Bills at Bengals – The League is 11-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since October 11, 2009 as a road dog the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning. The Bills are 7-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 15, 1991 on the road when they won by 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Bills are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 18, 2007 versus any team with more wins, after a straight up win. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since September 27, 1998 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a TD+ dog. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since September 13, 2009 as a home favorite. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since October 26, 2008 after a straight up win. The Bengals are 0-9 OU (-10.3 ppg) since December 10, 2006 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Cardinals at Chiefs – The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (14.2 ppg) since January 02, 1994 as a home 7+ favorite after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 05, 1989 as a home favorite the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since October 10, 1999 as a favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (14.5 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since November 06, 2005 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-9.1 ppg) since November 06, 2005 the week after a loss in which they had at least 300 yards passing.
Lions at Cowboys – The Lions are 6-0 ATS (4.9 ppg) since November 23, 2003 as a 7+ dog when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 22, 1998 as a home favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since October 12, 2003 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 16, 2007 as a favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Lions are 8-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since November 11, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (16.4 ppg) since October 23, 2006 at home versus any team with the same record.
Giants at Eagles – The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 08, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Giants are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since September 21, 1992 after a straight up loss at home versus the Cowboys. The Eagles are 0-7 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since October 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Giants are 8-0 OU (16.2 ppg) since October 01, 2000 the week after at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Eagles are 11-0 OU (12.7 ppg) since November 14, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road.
Buccaneers at 49ers – The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-15.7 ppg) since November 30, 2008 when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since December 18, 1995 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 17, 1989 as a home favorite when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 7-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since November 26, 1995 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The 49ers are 7-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since October 14, 2002 after playing at home versus the Rams.
Browns at Jaguars – The Browns are 7-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a dog the week after at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a home favorite versus any team with fewer wins. The Browns are 6-0 OU (14.5 ppg) since October 07, 2007 on the road when their dps was positive in their last two games. The Jaguars are 10-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a favorite the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since December 24, 2006 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Texans at Jets – The Texans are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 13, 2005 as a 7+ dog after playing on the road. The Texans are 6-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since December 26, 2004 as a road 7+ dog after playing on the road. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since October 26, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Ravens at Panthers – The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 06, 1998 as a home 7+ dog after playing as a dog. The League is 11-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since November 22, 2009 on the road the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Panthers are 0-11 OU (-10.0 ppg) since January 02, 2005 after playing the Buccaneers. The Panthers are 0-7 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a 7+ dog after playing on the road.
Colts at Patriots – The Colts are 9-0-1 ATS (4.5 ppg) since November 09, 2008 on the road after a straight up win at home as a favorite. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 04, 2000 within 3 of pick after playing as a dog. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since October 20, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 0-9 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 13, 1992 after their opponent played the Steelers. The Patriots are 9-0 OU (5.2 ppg) since September 19, 1999 within 3 of pick when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.
Falcons at Rams – The Falcons are 6-0-2 ATS (10.1 ppg) since September 15, 1991 within 3 of pick the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 8-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since October 23, 2005 the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since October 27, 1991 as a dog after a loss on the road in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Falcons are 0-10 OU (-8.8 ppg) since December 29, 2002 as a road favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The Rams are 6-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 16, 1997 at home the week after a straight up loss in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties.
Seahawks at Saints – The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since November 20, 2005 on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-15.0 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Saints are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 11, 1992 as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Saints are 0-6 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since December 15, 2002 at home when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Seahawks are 12-0 OU (10.6 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a road dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up win. The Seahawks are 9-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 10, 1989 as a road 7+ dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.
Raiders at Steelers – The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 02, 2003 the week after their bye. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since October 29, 1995 at home the week after at home in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-6 OU (-6.2 ppg) since October 03, 1993 as a road dog the week after their bye. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since October 29, 2001 at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as a 7+ favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.
Redskins at Titans – The Titans are 8-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since November 17, 2002 at home the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since October 01, 2000 at home the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since October 31, 2004 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.
Packers at Vikings – The Packers are 6-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since September 10, 1995 within 3 of pick at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (16.9 ppg) since November 15, 2009 at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games. The Packers are 8-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since January 04, 2004 when they won and covered their last three games. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a home dog versus any team with more wins, after a straight up loss.
Broncos at Chargers – The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 23, 2003 the week after scoring 34+ points at home. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since December 13, 1992 as a dog after playing at home as a dog. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 28, 2007 at home when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 02, 2005 when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (14.8 ppg) since December 17, 1994 as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Las Vegas Money Moves
November 19, 2010
You may look at the Chargers second ranked defense and think this may be a bad spot for Broncos offense, but before doing so, let’s analyze who the Chargers have played this season. The defensive statistics are somewhat of a mirage because of their opponents. Outside of quarterbacks Tom Brady and Matt Schaub, the Chargers unit has been helped by playing several teams in transition with identity problems behind center. Even the Texans are in somewhat of an identity crisis right now, especially since they have put the passing game aside in favor of the Arian Foster led running game.
This week the Chargers defense will face the No. 2 ranked passing offense of Denver. In a similar situation last year on a Monday night, the Broncos put up 33 points at San Diego. This year’s version of Denver is much more pass-happy and the attack has many more options offensively. They don’t rely on Brandon Marshall as the feature receiver and the unit is better. Denver rolls with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal with near equality and running back Knowshon Moreno is healthier than ever to help what was a poor Denver running game.
As for the Chargers, they will get their points too and should help bump this total way over the posted total of 50 ½. Ryan Mathews may finally be the factor they anticipated in training camp, but has since struggled to gain the confidence of his coach. The Chargers also get a boost on offense with both wide receivers Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee practicing this week, a sign that they'll play. The additions should help Phillip Rivers continue his passing excellence against a porous Broncos defense. The only down fall the Chargers have offensively is tight end Antonio Gates, who is very ‘questionable’ this week as he missed practice again.
The Chargers opened as 9 ½-point favorites and have been bet up to -10. It may be hard to side with a team that has looked awful in spots like the Broncos have this season, but outside of the Raiders debacle, the Broncos have looked competitive in their other games. Because of the Raiders and 49ers losses, Denver’s rating is at an all-time low on the season while Chargers have never been higher because this is the second half of the season and the Chargers have won two in a row.
Look for the Broncos to play very competitive ball on Monday with lots of points being scored. This game should probably be a seven-point spread, giving value on the money-line (+400) as well.
The Raiders shocked the Steelers last season in Pittsburgh and could possibly do the same this week. The Steelers opened as 8 ½-point favorites and have been bet against to as low as -6 ½, but are currently at -7, which looks like the right number. It’s tough betting against the Steelers after a loss, but let’s face it, they don’t look so good right now as QB Ben Roethlisberger’s return has muddled up their basic, but affective offense.
The Panthers are in the same position they were in last week, except maybe even worse as they go with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. The Panthers felt such little confidence in third-stringer Tony Pike that they gave the job to St. Pierre, who wasn’t even in any training camp this year and was a stay at home dad until last week. This factor, coupled with running back Jonathan Stewart likely out again, going against a solid Ravens defense should make covering the spread difficult for Carolina this week.
All season long we have been waiting for that one team to pick on week after week. Last season we had six teams through the first eight weeks that cashed in regularly. This year, no one has stepped up to be that bad, but we have a candidate raising their hands, and it’s Carolina. Last week Tampa Bay was the most lopsided team bet on in ticket count ratios and got there quite easily. Baltimore opened as a 10-point favorite and are now -10 ½. Expect this line to shoot up close to -13 by kickoff as there can be no argument for the Panthers side other than the league trend of underdogs being strong overall.
The early line on the Packers at Minnesota this week had Green Bay as a 1-point favorite, but opened on Monday with the Packers at -3. Last season we saw Vikings defensive end Jared Allen do all he wanted against the Packers offense, but this year, the tables will turn as it looks like GB’s Clay Matthews will be doing the terrorizing. Each week we keep saying “this game is the Vikings season” and they still lose. Green Bay has struggled with their passing game somewhat, but their defense looks much better than a year ago and should be the difference this week.
The Chiefs have struggled lately to recreate their success from early in the season as their defense has broken down, but everyone seems to believe they’ll get their groove back this week as they opened a 6 ½-point favorite against the Cardinals and have been bet up to -8.
The totals also became an attraction for bettors this week after 11 of the 14 games went over the number in Week 10. This week, the initial move on the totals went 9-2 in favor of taking the over.
Here’s a look at some of the other Pro Football Moves of the week through Thursday
The Titans opened as 6 ½-point favorites against the Redskins and have been bet up to -7.
Cincinnati opened as a 5-point home favorite to the competitive Bills and have been bet up to -5 ½.
The Browns were getting +2 ½ at Jacksonville, but are down to +1 ½.
The Saints opened as 11-point home favorites to Seattle, were bet up to -12 and now sit at -11 ½ as folks are still apprehensive about laying the big number with New Orleans.
The 49ers opened as small 3-point home favorites to Tampa bay and have been bumped up to -3 ½.
The Patriots opened a short price of -3 (-120) against the Colts in what looks to be the game of the week and have been bet up to -3 ½. Peyton Manning is the best, but his supporting cast makes he, himself, him tough to support with cash.
The Eagles opened as 2 ½-point favorites against the Giants before their Monday night blasting of the Redskins, but are now -3 (-125); a surprisingly short move considering how impressive the Eagles were and how bad the Giants were in their last outing.
College Football Moves of the Week
We don’t have any real monster, must see matchups this week as most of the top BCS contenders are off this week, but it doesn’t explain why there haven’t been any big moves like we have seen throughout the season. No. 9 Ohio State travels to No. 20 Iowa in what is probably the marquee matchup of the week, but the line has stayed steady at Buckeyes -3 all week. No. 21 Mississippi State has seen some action as a 3 ½-point home underdog to No. 13 Arkansas pushing the line down to +3.
Duke was getting 13 points at Georgia Tech, but have been bet down to +10 ½ as it’s apparent that quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the season, is thought to have a bigger influence on the Yellow Jackets rating than listed.
Michigan opened as a 5 ½-point home underdog to Wisconsin and has been bet down to +4 with some of the move coming on air because of Badgers running back John Clay being shifted from ‘probable’ to ‘doubtful’ for this one.Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Total Talk - Week 11
November 19, 2010
Week 10 Recap
When will the ‘over’ run come to a stop? Bookmakers have been cleaning up with the underdogs cashing this season but the ‘over’ tickets have lessened the blow to the betting public. Week 9 watched the ‘over’ go 10-3 and Week 10 wasn’t much different, as the ‘over’ put out an 11-3 mark. And if you look at the three ‘under’ tickets, the only clear-cut winner was Buffalo’s 14-12 decision over Detroit. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at an eye opening 83-59-2 (58%). Will things balance out? We asked that question to VegasInsider.com handicapper and total expert Paul Bovi.
He responded, “There are several theories behind the trend including those that feel that defensive players have been taken out of their games due to the hefty fines that have been levied as a result of the questionable hits that have garnered an unprecedented level of attention as compared to years' past. That said, less than stellar defenses are certainly a contributing factor as are blowouts, the latter making for an onslaught of meaningless touchdowns as was the case last week with three games.”
“Philadelphia-Washington, Pittsburgh-New England and Denver-Kansas City saw combined scores of 87, 65 and 78 points. Whatever the reason, the cure for these high totals will undoubtedly be high totals. Lines makers will eventually make the proper adjustments and the public will continue to buy in until the pendulum swings in the other direction. That's a certainty.”
After watching Chicago blank Miami 16-0 on Thursday, the first total of the week sided with the ‘under.’ With no teams on bye in Week 11, bettors will have 15 more totals to wager on the rest of the weekend.
Non-Divisional Battles
VI’s Paul Bovi mentioned above that totals might balance out due to higher numbers and weather, but another factor is familiarity. The last three weeks of the regular season are loaded with divisional battles, with hopes of creating meaningful games. Perhaps that’s when the low-scoring affairs will come through. Until then, let’s look at a handful of non-divisional contests and some key notes on each.
Oakland at Pittsburgh: The Raiders have played four games on the road and three of them have gone ‘over’ the number. Pittsburgh was once known for its defense, but the unit has given up 22, 20, 21 and 39 points in the last four. The ‘over’ is 3-1 during this run.
Houston at N.Y. Jets: New York has been a crazy ‘over’ team on the road (5-0) but the totals have gone 2-2 at home. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed 28 PPG away from home. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the four instances for Houston and the one ‘under’ came with a 50-point total at Indy.
Baltimore at Carolina: Every game this week has a number over 40, except this matchup. The Ravens have watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 on the road and the one winner was the Bad Beat ‘over’ ticket at Atlanta on Oct. 11. Carolina has scored over 20 points once and they’re starting a guy at quarterback, Brian St. Pierre, who just got signed. This writer advises a team total ‘under’ on the Panthers as well.
Arizona at Kansas City: The Chiefs and Cardinals have a total of 44 and while both defensive units had shown weakness, neither offense is very consistent. Look at Arizona, who has put 17, 7, 10, 10 and 24 on the road. Could be a blowout and the point-spread (KC -9) says so but you wonder if the Cards can score in this spot.
Seattle at New Orleans: Last year, the Saints-Over combination was money in the bank for gamblers. But guess what? It hasn’t hit this year. Will this be the week? Off the bye, with the expected return of Reggie Bush, some bettors might be ready to pull the trigger here. Prior to last week’s 36-point outburst at Arizona, Seattle averaged 10.8 PPG in the previous four road games. Dare we say a 38-9 win by the Saints?
Under the Lights
MNF heads to the West Coast this weekend as Denver and San Diego meet in an important AFC clash, especially with Kansas City and Oakland holding a tight lead on the division. Does that mean we’re going to get a tight affair tonight with each coach being a little more conservative? The total is hovering around 50 points and playing ‘over’ tickets this high in divisional games is always dangerous. However, both Denver (6-2-1) and San Diego (6-3) have been solid ‘over’ plays this season. Plus, they like to air it out and that obviously increases the opportunity for big plays on both sides of the ball. Six of the last eight in this series have been ‘over’ winners, so the tendency for high-scoring affairs is there. Plus, San Diego is off the bye so it should be ready to go for this matchup. Last week, Denver played after a week off and they dropped 49 on the scoreboard. Will we see that again?
Last Monday was the easiest ‘over’ ticket of the regular season, with Philadelphia putting up 45 at the break against Washington. It’s doubtful you’ll see that happen again, but the books have been taking a beating with the ‘over’ in primetime games this season. We mentioned that Thursday’s affair between the Bears and Fins went ‘under’ but was that due to the matchup?
Fearless Predictions
We split the Best Bets last week, winning with the Arizona-Seattle ‘over’ and losing with the Cowboys-Giants ‘under.’ On the season, we’re 5-4 (+60) in that department. Fortunately, we did hit our three-team teaser again and on the year, we’re 3-1 (+200). The bankroll is still in the black (+260) and we’re looking for another sweep this weekend.
Best Over: Seattle-New Orleans 44
Best Under: Baltimore-Carolina 37.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Seattle-New Orleans 35
Under N.Y. Giants-Philadelphia 57.5
Under Baltimore-Carolina 46.5Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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Week 11 Home 'Chalk'
November 18, 2010
By Kevin Rogers
As we inch closer towards Thanksgiving, the playoff races are tightening up around the NFL heading into Week 11. However, there are several teams that have struggled to cover numbers at home on a consistent basis this season. We'll highlight four of these clubs, as well as one home underdog that continues to get disrespected by the oddsmakers.
Raiders at Steelers (-7, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Even though it may not seem like a huge deal now, it's amazing to think that Oakland is the team in this matchup that is leading its division, and not Pittsburgh. The Raiders are tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs at 5-4, but Oakland is riding a three-game winning streak heading into Heinz Field. The Steelers, meanwhile, try to put an embarrassing home performance against the Patriots behind them.
Pittsburgh's vaunted defense allowed 453 yards to New England in a 39-26 home loss as 4 ½-point favorites. The Pats stuck the Steelers in a 23-3 hole before Pittsburgh scored some late touchdowns to make the final more respectable. Following a 3-0 ATS start, the Steelers are just 2-4 ATS, while three of those losses have come since Ben Roethlisberger's return to the lineup. The 'over' has turned into a profitable play with Big Ben by hitting in four of his five starts.
The Raiders are the hottest ATS team in the league by covering five consecutive games, including four straight in the role of an underdog. Oakland's defense has stepped up after a shaky start by limiting its last four opponents to 54 points combined. Three of Oakland's four road games have finished 'over' the total, as Tom Cable's team dropped 59 points at Denver in their last highway contest in Week 7. The Raiders go for their second straight win at Heinz Field after knocking off the Steelers last season as 14 ½-point underdogs, 27-24.
Texans at Jets (-7, 45 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Two teams going in opposite directions meet at the new Meadowlands as Houston looks to put a halt to a three-game skid. The Texans fell short on a Hail Mary pass in a 31-24 loss at Jacksonville, the fifth straight non-cover for Gary Kubiak's team. The Jets keep finding ways to win by picking up their second consecutive road overtime triumph with a 26-20 victory at Cleveland last week as 3 ½-point favorites.
New York received nearly identical pass plays in overtime the last two weeks from Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes, but the former Ohio State standout broke loose for a touchdown against the Browns to get a fortunate front-door cover. The Jets are undefeated on the road, while both losses have come at their new home as 'chalk' against the Ravens and Packers. New York has hit the 'over' in all seven victories, while the 'under' cashed in both losses.
The Texans can't stop anybody on defense, allowing at least 24 points in all nine games. Houston's offense is still strong, but inconsistent as the Texans have scored one touchdown or less in a half in each of its last five contests. The Jets have owned this series since Houston's arrival into the league in 2002, winning and covering all four matchups. New York won Sanchez's debut at Reliant Stadium last season, 24-7 as the Jets outgained the Texans, 462-183 in the yards department.
Lions at Cowboys (-6 ½, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Dallas has a long way to go to get back into the NFC East race, but the Cowboys will take a 33-20 trouncing of the Giants last week for just their second win of the season. Jason Garrett's team returns to "The House that Jerry Jones Financed" when the Cowboys go for consecutive wins for the first time in 2010 against the Lions.
Detroit is close to turning the corner, but somehow can't finish the job as the Lions lost their fourth game by less than three points at Buffalo last week. The Lions are a strong ATS play this season at 7-2, while not being able to stave off the Bears and Jets late. The one consistent element for Detroit is the ability to nail 'overs,' doing so in five of the last six games.
The Cowboys are a disappointing 0-5 ATS when laying points this season, while owning an 0-4 SU/ATS mark at home. Playing at Cowboys Stadium isn't helping the Dallas defense, which has allowed at least 27 points in all four home defeats. With the ineptitude of the defense (and the quick resurgence of the offense last week), the Cowboys are riding a six-game 'over' streak.
Bills at Bengals (-5 ½, 44) - 1:00 PM EST
Two teams that are a combined 3-15 SU and 7-10-1 ATS meet in Cincinnati as the Bills go for their second straight victory. Buffalo edged Detroit last week to finally break through the win column after eight straight losses to start the season, while Cincinnati couldn't shake an early deficit in a 23-17 loss at Indianapolis.
The Bengals aren't a great play when laying points, compiling a 1-10 ATS mark since the start of last season. The only cover came in a Week 3 triumph over lowly Carolina as three-point 'chalk,' 20-7. For all the weapons that the Cincinnati offense possesses, the Bengals have scored over 21 points just twice this season, both coming in losses at New England and Atlanta.
Despite the inability to win through the first eight games prior to the Detroit victory, Buffalo hung tough in three-point losses to Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago (2-0-1 ATS). One big key is the massive improvement on the defensive side of the ball for Chan Gailey's club, who has allowed 16.5 ppg the last three contests after giving up at least 34 points in each of the previous five defeats.
Falcons (-3, 43) at Rams - 4:05 PM EST
The final game goes against our theme of overvalued home favorites as we take a look at a very undervalued home underdog in the Rams. All four of St. Louis' wins have come at the Edward Jones Dome, including three outright victories when receiving points against the Redskins, Seahawks, and Chargers. Sam Bradford's Rams host a 7-2 Atlanta squad that is listed as a road favorite for the third time this season after splitting contests at Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
The Rams fell short in a 23-20 overtime loss at San Francisco last week, but managed a cover as five-point underdogs, their fourth straight pointspread victory. Taking away the 44 points allowed at Detroit in Week 5, St. Louis has allowed 21 points or more only one other time this season, coming in the defeat to the Niners. The defense has shined the most at home, going 4-1 to the 'under.'
The Falcons picked up their third straight win with the last-minute home triumph over the Ravens last Thursday, 27-21. Atlanta's offense has been on fire during this winning streak, averaging 30.6 ppg while cashing three consecutive 'overs.' Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 3-9 ATS off back-to-back wins, while not covering the last time in this spot on the road at Philadelphia in Week 6.Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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