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Cnotes Week # 11 Best Bets + Other News !

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  • Cnotes Week # 11 Best Bets + Other News !

    Play Over on teams returning from bye week

    Week 11 will feature the last group of teams coming off of their bye weeks (Green Bay, New Orleans, Oakland and San Diego). Let’s take a look at how the rest of the league has fared so far with an extra week of rest and preparation.
    Through 10 weeks, there have been 26 games featuring 28 teams coming off their bye weeks. For the purposes of this study, we have left out the two matchups in which both teams were coming off a layoff since there was a winner and loser both ATS and SU in each game (Indianapolis vs. Houston in Week 8 and San Francisco vs. St. Louis in Week 10). In the other 24 games, the team coming off the bye has a slight advantage ATS at 12-10 (55%), while posting a more impressive 15-9 mark SU (63%). Interestingly, the Over has been hit in 17 of these 24 contests (71%).

    Digging a bit further, we compared the numbers of teams returning from a bye to play at home versus on the road. For this examination, we’ll include the two games in which both teams were returning from byes because each team falls into a separate category. We found that home teams coming off a bye have performed better than those returning to play a road game both ATS and SU. Home teams are 8-6 ATS (57%) and 12-3 SU (80%), while road teams are 6-6 ATS (50%) and 5-8 SU (38%). The over/under numbers remain solid in both situations, with the Over hitting on 8-of-13 games (62%) in which the home team was returning from a bye, and 11-of-15 games (73%) in which the road team was coming back from the layoff.

    None of the four teams returning from byes this week are facing each other, resulting in four wagering opportunities, featuring two road teams and two home teams. Here are the games, along with some handicapping angles urging bettors to play the Over found in the FoxSheets:

    (Team coming off the bye in CAPS)

    GREEN BAY at Minnesota
    Green Bay is 9-0 Over (+9.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was Green Bay 26.0, Opponent 22.8 - (Rating = 3*).

    OAKLAND at Pittsburgh
    Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (Oakland) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs. (44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).

    Seattle at NEW ORLEANS
    New Orleans under head coach Sean Payton is 26-11 Over (70.3%, +13.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. The average score was New Orleans 28.9, Opponent 24.2 - (Rating = 2*).

    Denver at SAN DIEGO
    Denver and San Diego are both 6-3 Over (67%) through nine games this season.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    NFL odds favor Dolphins despite QB injuries

    Welcome to another round of As the Quarterbacks Turn.

    The setting is Miami where the Dolphins host the Chicago Bears on Thursday night at 5:20 p.m. PT with the NFL Network televising.

    The Dolphins won’t have Chad Pennington, nor are they likely to have Chad Henne, leaving Tyler Thigpen as the man. Pennington suffered another shoulder injury to his right arm that is season-ending and could end his career. Pennington had just been named the starter during practice last week. Henne is on crutches after going down with a knee injury leaving Thigpen as the last man standing.

    Thigpen, however, just may be the best third-string quarterback in the league. He started 11 games for Kansas City just two years ago.

    The NFL oddsmaker has taken this into account by still opening Miami the favorite at minus 1 ½ with an ‘over/under’ of 39 ½.

    This is quite a compliment to Thigpen since the Bears have an underrated defense, the Dolphins are a below average 5-7 straight-up and ATS in their last 12 home contests and also are likely to be missing franchise offensive left tackle Jake Long, who suffered a shoulder injury this past Sunday.

    Despite all these injuries, the Dolphins still knocked off Tennessee, 29-17, as one-point home favorites with the combined 46 points going ‘over’ the 43-point total. It was the first time this year the Dolphins had generated three touchdowns on offense in a game.

    “That’s the thing about this league – anything can happen,” wide receiver Davone Bess was quoted as saying in the Miami Herald. “It’s a matter of how you react and how you handle these situations.”

    It’s not a stretch to say the Bears can expect a lot of Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Miami’s Wildcat formation offense.

    “The people that you have handling the ball there you really trust with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams,” Dolphins coach Tony Sparano was quoted as saying.

    The Bears haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game all season. They’ve held seven of their nine foes to 19 points or less and have surrendered a league-low six touchdown passes.

    There could be more respect for Thigpen considering on Monday the Dolphins tried out a number of recycled quarterbacks, including Patrick Ramsey, JaMarcus Russell, J.T. O’Sullivan and Tom Brandstater before deciding on Ramsey as their probable backup.

    The 5-4 Dolphins are trying to catch AFC East-leading New England and the New York Jets, both of whom are 7-2. Until defeating the Titans, Miami had defeated only one team that had a winning mark and that was Green Bay in overtime.

    Chicago is tied on top of the NFC North standings with Green Bay at 6-3. The Bears defeated Minnesota, 27-13, as one-point home favorites. The combined 40 points dipped ‘under’ the 41-point total.

    The Bears limited Adrian Peterson to a season-low 51 yards rushing on 17 carries. Jay Cutler, who already has cracked the Bears’ all-time top 10 in touchdown passes despite only being in his second season with Chicago, threw three touchdown passes.

    Perhaps the big story for the Bears, though, was Devin Hester. He caught four passes for 38 yards and a touchdown, while also contributing 147 return yards. The Dolphins have had problems on special teams. They already on their second special teams coach.

    Chicago has won straight-up during four of the past five times they’ve been underdogs. Miami is 6-10 ATS the last 16 times it has been ‘chalk.’

    The ‘under’ has cashed in six of Chicago’s last seven games, including the past three.

    The weather forecast is for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 60s and seven mph winds.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      New England three-point favorites vs. Colts

      The New England Patriots are extremely young and aside from Tom Brady lack stars. Yet the Patriots have the best record in the NFL at 7-2 along with the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons.

      But now the Patriots face a huge challenge, hosting Indianapolis Sunday at 1:15 p.m. PT. New England is three-point favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 50 ½.

      The Colts are a league-best 105-32 since 2002. The Patriots are right behind them at 103-34. Brady and Peyton Manning have been the AFC quarterback in six of the last nine Super Bowls.

      The Patriots have won three Super Bowls under Bill Belichick. They were minutes away from capturing a fourth Super Bowl. Belichick is the best coach of his era and this season may be his finest job.

      However, he’s going to have to come up with a way to slow down Manning with an inexperienced secondary that ranks 30th giving up 277.8 yards through the air per game.

      Manning, the NFL’s only four-time MVP, is having another great year. He ranks third in passing yards with 2,663, has a 64.1 completion percentage and a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

      The 6-3 Colts are leading the AFC South Division. The Colts have the better offense and stingier defense, but were missing eight starters last week.

      Indianapolis has won 10 of its last 14 road contests going 10-3-1 against the NFL spread. The Patriots have been outgained in six of their games.

      Brady has a five-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio since Randy Moss was dealt away. He had thrown nine touchdowns with only two interceptions when Moss was on the Patriots. New England also had converted 55 percent of the time on third down when it had Moss compared to 33 percent since he was traded.

      Brady, though, is off a season-high in yardage and touchdowns in the Patriots’ 39-26 win against Pittsburgh as 4 ½-point home favorites. Brady threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns. The combined 65 points went ‘over’ the 44 ½-point total.

      The Colts and Patriots have met at least once during the last five years with Indianapolis going 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 ATS. The Colts won a memorable 35-34 game last year as one-point home favorites. The combined 69 points flew ‘over’ the 48-point total.

      Indy rallied from 17 points down in the fourth quarter to cut the Patriots’ lead to 34-28 with 2:27 left. The Patriots had the ball on their own 28-yard line facing a fourth-and-two. Belichick shocked a lot of people by going for it knowing his defense was exhausted and fearing Manning.

      A short screen pass went incomplete giving the ball to Indianapolis on downs. The Colts then scored the winning touchdown with 16 seconds left.

      This is the first time the Patriots are hosting the Colts since 2006. The last three meetings in the series have been in Indianapolis. New England has won 13 straight at Gillette Stadium going 9-4 ATS.

      The underdog is 11-3-2 ATS during the past 16 games in the series.

      Indianapolis is 2-3 on the road this season losing by 10 at Houston opening week, by three at Jacksonville and by two at Philadelphia two weeks ago. The Colts are 9-2-1 ATS the last 12 times they’ve faced opponents with a winning record. The Colts also have covered five of the last six times they’ve been underdogs.

      The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of Indianapolis’ past eight road games. The ‘over’ has cashed in nine of New England’s last 11 contests, including four of its past five home matchups.

      The Colts won’t have injured linebacker Gary Brackett. They also could be missing running back Joseph Addai (shoulder) and linebacker Clint Session (arm).

      Game time temperatures are expected to be in the 30s with a 10 percent chance of rain and six mph winds.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Atlanta Falcons 3-point favorites at Rams

        The St. Louis Rams have a 7-1 spread record in their last eight games, with the ‘under’ going 5-3. Steve Spagnuolo’s crew hosts Sunday’s battle against the Atlanta Falcons, who travel to Edward James Dome after going 2-1 ATS in three straight home games.

        Sports books opened Atlanta as a three-point road favorite, with an added premium of minus 125 on those NFL odds. Betting shops first set the ‘total’ at 42 ½, with early ‘over’ wagers moving the number north to 43 ½.

        St. Louis lost a close fight in last Sunday’s 23-20 overtime setback as a 4 ½-point road dog against the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams allowed 49ers kicker Joe Nedney to hit a 29-yard field goal in the extra stanza after being outscored, 10-3, in the fourth quarter.

        Rams quarterback Sam Bradford guided his club to 18 first downs in its 35 minutes of possession. The Oklahoma native finished with 251 passing yards, completing 30-of-42 attempts.

        St. Louis’ Steven Jackson logged 20 rushes and eight catches for a combined 148 yards. The two-time Pro Bowl selection took in one touchdown, giving the Rams a 17-10 lead in the third quarter.

        The Rams defense registered five sacks en route to allowing 421 yards. Defensive end Chris Long extended his streak of games with at least one sack to four.

        The combined 43 points slipped ‘over’ the ‘total’ of 38 ½. St. Louis scored touchdowns on 2-of-3 red zone journeys, while allowing San Francisco to reach the end zone on 2-of-5 trips.

        St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its first five home dates, with the ‘under’ also 4-1. Long and Co. have allowed a stingy 12.6 PPG in that span.

        Atlanta came from behind in last week’s 26-21 win as a one-point home favorite against the Baltimore Ravens. The Falcons opened up to an early 13-0 lead in the Thursday night affair, but needed a late 33-yard touchdown catch from wide receiver Roddy White to pull out a victory.

        White finished with a team-high 138 receiving yards, logging 12 catches. The 29-year-old has gained 934 yards through the air this season, trailing only Denver’s Brandon Lloyd (968 yards).

        Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan connected on 32-of-50 passes for a season-high 316 yards. The Boston College alum survived a second straight game without an interception, notching three touchdowns in his club’s 35 minutes of possession.

        The Falcons’ defense gave up 320 yards, with 204 coming through the air. Defensive end John Abraham logged two sacks, while cornerback Brent Grimes grabbed an interception for a second straight game.

        The combined 47 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 43 ½, extending the ‘over’ to 4-0 in Atlanta’s last four games.

        Atlanta is 2-2 ATS in its first four road games, with the ‘total’ also even at 2-2. Mike Smith’s squad has scored 18.2 PPG in that stretch, sizably less than its overall average of 24.7 PPG.

        St. Louis is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Falcons. The Rams lost the most recent duel between the foes, 31-27, in a 2008 trip to Atlanta as 14-point road dogs.

        Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. (PT), with FOX providing television coverage in some markets.

        Both squads return to action as part of next Sunday’s league slate. Atlanta returns home to face the Green Bay Packers, while the Rams begin a three-game road stretch against the Denver Broncos.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          MythBusting NFL Wagering – Chapter 2

          This is the second of our two articles on mythbusting issues that shroud the practice of wagering on NFL games. In Chapter 1 we talked about picking winning teams. Now for the money issues, it’s time to clear up the issues surrounding the wagering side.

          You’ll see that our final ‘myth’ is the same as in Chapter 1. This is not a mistake. We want to reinforce this point and leave our readers with those final words of comfort that it is appropriate to wagering and investing in the same sentence.

          CHAPTER 2 – WAGERING ON WINNING TEAMS

          NFL wagering is simply another type of gambling.

          Myth: There’s really no difference between wagering on NFL football and placing a red/black bet on a roulette wheel in a casino – they both represent about an equal chance of either winning or losing.

          Busted: Well, that’s half right (the roulette side), but professional football is played by two teams that each have a track record. Also, there is a spread involved which is a judgment of which team is the stronger. But sometimes the statistical reality falls materially outside the designated spread creating a ‘window’ of opportunity for a wager. It may not be a sure thing but statistically, for example, one may have a 60% chance of winning as opposed to a 50% chance.

          All sportsbooks offer the same spread and line for each matchup.

          Myth: Once I’ve figured out which team will win against the spread, I simply go to my favorite sportsbook to place my bet – they’re all pretty much the same anyway.

          Busted: Our research revealed exactly the opposite – depending on how you define ‘pretty much’. You must first understand that each online betting site is trying to get the same amount of funds wagered on each side of a matchup. They do this by tinkering with the spread and the line. It’s obvious, for example, that there’s a big difference between -2½ and -3. Winning by a field goal is very common and a spread of -3 would give the bettor a push rather than a loss. Also, as another illustration, obtaining a line of -105 consistently over the season (rather than the standard line of -110) means that your breakeven winning percentage will be significantly reduced.

          You have to win 55% of the time to make money on NFL wagering.

          Myth: I understand you have to achieve a win rate of at least 55% to justify wagering on NFL football.

          Busted: This value is incorrect. Say you bet $110 on 100 games for a value of $11,000 at risk – and you win 55 of these games. With a line of 110, your winnings would yield $100 per game (or $5,500). And $5,500 is 50% of $11,000; hence the notion that your breakeven level is 55%. But the math is flawed. With a line of 110, the actual breakeven winning percentage level is 52.4%. Plus, from an investment point of view, your rate of return is higher than you think because a) you can shop for better lines than 110 and b) your funds at risk can be withdrawn by the end of the 4 month NFL season.

          A solid computerized system will always be able to predict winners

          Myth: I see the light now, a well-conceived computer software product will tell me which teams are going to win the games I’m interested in.

          Busted: Sorry, the life of NFL wagering isn’t quite that simple. Logic based software solutions rely on wagering a relatively high number of games and recognize that, in spite of the validity of the approach, a good number of losses will occur. But the success level only has to be greater than 52.4% to make money (based on a standard line of -110). In the end, turning NFL wagering into a viable investment has much more to do with the users’ discipline than the software product itself.

          Online wagering on NFL games cannot be considered an investment.

          Myth: I understand about stocks, bonds and other financial instruments – and don’t believe that online wagering can also be defined as an investment.

          Busted: Wikipedia defines ‘investment’ as the commitment of money or capital to purchase financial instruments or other assets to gain profitable returns in the form of interest, dividends or appreciation of the value of the instrument. Business consultants like to offer trendy advice to struggling companies, they advise management to “think outside the box.” Funds placed with on-line wagering sites for the purpose of betting on certain games, in accordance with a formulated plan, and based on a computerized identification of target teams, creates a type of financial asset whose value is expected to appreciate. Sounds like investing to us.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL Odds: Reeling Texans visit Jets

            The once-promising Houston Texans are reeling with three straight losses as they battle the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

            Bookmaker.com has the Jets as seven-point home favorites with a total of 45 ½-points. Houston is plus 250 to avoid its fourth consecutive defeat.

            The Texans (4-5 straight-up, 3-6 against the spread) are finding new ways to lose each week. A 23-14 third quarter lead versus San Diego two weeks ago turned into a 29-23 loss after two Philip Rivers touchdown passes. Houston was inside the San Diego 30-yard-line with over a minute left, but receiver Andre Johnson let a ball go off his knee for an interception.

            That crushing loss can’t even compare to last week at Jacksonville. Jaguars’ wide receiver Mike Thomas pulled down a 50-yard Hail Mary pass after Houston corner Glover Quin batted it right into his hands. Jacksonville won 31-24 as one-point favorites, avoiding overtime on that final play.

            Houston is now 0-5 ATS in its last five games. This team has to be down emotionally and will need to quickly flip the switch.

            Coach Gary Kubiak’s team has wasted a 2-0 start and is last in the AFC South behind Indianapolis (6-3), Tennessee (5-4) and Jacksonville (5-4). The Texans have never made the playoffs in franchise history (starting in 2002), with the first winning season (9-7) coming last year.

            Kubiak did sign a contract extension through 2012 before the season, but his job is in jeopardy if the team doesn’t make the playoffs. The bad news is the schedule only gets harder with Baltimore, Philadelphia and Tennessee (twice) over the next month.

            Houston’s offense is doing enough to win at 24.1 PPG, 10th in the league. Matt Schaub and the passing attack (ranked 11th) have seen their numbers dip, but that’s because Arian Foster and the running game (ranked seventh) are bringing balance.

            The real problem has been the 31st ranked defense (409.7 YPG), dead-last against the pass (301.3 YPG). The Texans haven’t given up less than 24 points in any game this year (helping the ‘over’ go 6-3). Unless that starts to change, the playoffs will be just a dream.

            The Jets (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) are sky-high emotionally after a 26-20 OT win in Cleveland. That was a fortunate cover as 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’ They’re the first team in NFL history to win back-to-back overtime road games after winning 23-20 in Detroit the week before.

            New York seems very loose in these late-game situations. It comes partially from head coach Rex Ryan, a players coach and jokester to the nth degree, who was wearing a wig during a pre-game press conference last week.

            Quarterback Mark Sanchez has shown increased maturity the last two weeks and it also helps to have a go-to receiver in Santonio Holmes. There has been some luck involved, but Super Bowl caliber teams win close games and the Jets are getting it done.

            Sanchez should have success against the Houston secondary, but it’s never in the Jets’ game-plan to consistently air it out. They will be methodical on offense and move the ball by both running and passing.

            Schaub has success throwing on almost everyone, but sacks allowed (21) have been a problem. That’s especially dangerous against a blitzing Jets defense. Foster will need to run successfully to take some pressure off.

            New York is 2-2 SU and ATS at home. The two losses were 10-9 in the opener to Baltimore and 9-0 to Green Bay in the last home game on Oct. 31. The offensive breakdowns at home are puzzling, but can be corrected. The ‘over’ is 7-2 for New York this year, 2-2 at home and 5-0 away.

            The Jets are 4-0 SU and ATS lifetime versus the Texans. The last game was a 24-7 road win last September. The ‘under’ is 4-0 with no combined score over 37 points.

            Houston tight end Owen Daniels is questionable to miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury. Jets’ receiver Jerricho Cotchery is likely out with a groin.

            Kickoff from New Meadowlands Stadium will be 10:00 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather should partly cloudy in the 40s.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              Patriots favored by 4 over Indianapolis


              INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-3)
              at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-2)

              Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: New England -4, Total: 50.5

              The rivalry resumes for their 11th meeting since 2003, but with plenty of new faces. New England has been starting four rookies on defense, all of whom will be seeing Peyton Manning for the first time. But Manning will not have his full arsenal of offensive weapons as RBs Joseph Addai (shoulder) and Mike Hart (ankle) will likely both miss Sunday’s game. The good news is that both WRs Austin Collie (concussion) and Blair White (shoulder) and TE Jacob Tamme (back) are all expected to suit up in Foxboro. A final determination on Collie will be made on Saturday.

              Manning’s numbers haven’t always been great against New England as Manning has been picked off by the Patriots 20 times in 15 regular-season games, which marks the most interceptions he has thrown against an opponent. However, Manning has 3,995 passing yards and 32 TD in those 15 meetings. Manning has rarely faced a Patriots’ secondary as suspect as the current one, which is allowing 278 passing YPG (third-worst in NFL). The Colts rank 27th in rushing offense (90 YPG) and will likely give the bulk of the carries to Donald Brown who has a 3.3 YPC average and has not rushed for 70 yards in a game this year.

              The Patriots are coming off their best performance of the year, a 39-26 pounding at Pittsburgh. Tom Brady has been pretty successful against Indianapolis, with 2,037 passing yards, 67.1% completion rate, 17 TD and 10 INT in eight regular-season games. Including playoffs, Brady is 7-4 all-time versus Manning. Brady has done a great job of protecting the football this year with just four picks in 304 pass attempts. The Patriots’ nine total giveaways are tied for the second-lowest total in the NFL (K.C. has seven).

              The Colts have won five of six SU and four of those ATS, but the last two matchups between these teams have been SU wins and ATS losses for Indy. The FoxSheets show this four-star coaching trend in favor of New England to win and cover on Sunday.

              Bill Belichick is 30-9 ATS (+20.1 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 25.2, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 4*).

              New England is 7-2 Over the total this season and the FoxSheets also like the Over based on this Colts-specific trend:

              INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 30.0, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 3*).
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #8
                Beanie Wells questionable to play at KC


                ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-6)
                at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-4)

                Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Kansas City -8, Total: 44

                Cardinals RB Beanie Wells might not play on Sunday when Arizona visits Kansas City. Wells has been bothered by a knee problem all season after undergoing knee surgery in September. With backup RBs Jason Wright (concussion) and LaRod Stephens-Howling (hamstring) also unable to play Sunday, Tim Hightower is the only healthy running back that remains for Arizona.

                ******* take:
                Hightower has actually outperformed Wells all year. Hightower only has nine more carries the Wells, but he leads him 376 to 231 in rushing yards and 3-to-2 in touchdowns. Hightower has averaged 4.8 YPC, which is considerably higher than Wells’ 3.3 YPC, but also has three lost fumbles while Wells has zero. The Cardinals have been terrible in just about every statistical category this year. They rank 30th in passing yards (181 YPG) and 29th in rushing offense (83 YPG), while on the defensive side, Arizona ranks 28th in rushing defense (132 YPG) and 27th against the pass (269 YPG).

                Kansas City will look to have a field day on Arizona’s defense, especially on the ground where it leads the NFL with 165 rushing YPG. The Chiefs also showed they could move the ball through the air with Matt Cassel throwing 53 times for 469 yards and four scores in the lopsided loss at Denver last week. The Chiefs defense will look to redeem themselves after surrendering 49 points and 452 yards to the Broncos.

                The home team is 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in the past four meetings. However, the FoxSheets show many more trends favoring Arizona to cover, including this one:

                Play On - Road teams (ARIZONA) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*).

                This FoxSheets coaching trend favors the Over.

                Ken Whisenhunt is 35-15 OVER (70.0%, +18.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score was ARIZONA 25.9, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 3*).
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #9
                  Schaub will start against the Jets


                  HOUSTON TEXANS (4-5)
                  at NEW YORK JETS (7-2)

                  Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -7, Total: 45.5

                  Houston will try to snap a three-game losing skid as it travels to New Meadowlands Stadium to face the Jets. The Texans received good news Friday as QB Matt Schaub practiced fully and will start Sunday against the Jets. Schaub was listed as questionable earlier in the week with a bursa sac injury in his knee. Schaub will once again be without the services of his top tight end Owen Daniels who will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury.

                  ******* take:
                  Schaub will have to be on top his game to allow Houston to move the football on an excellent Jets’ defense ranked fifth in the NFL in total yardage (307 YPG). Schaub has averaged 258 passing YPG with a 64.2% completion rate this year, but only has 12 TD and 7 INT. Daniels’ replacement Joel Dreessen hasn’t been much of an offensive factor with just seven catches for 91 yards in two games as the starting TE .

                  If the Texans have any shot to beat New York, RB Arian Foster will have to have a big game. Foster has excellent numbers this year, leading the NFL in both rushing yards (920) and touchdowns (11). But he has also been inconsistent with five 100-yard rushing games and four sub-75-yard games. The Jets have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 16 straight games.

                  The Jets have done a great job running the football, ranking fourth in the NFL with 151 rushing YPG. LaDainian Tomlinson (656 rush yds, 5 TD, 4.7 YPC) and Shonn Greene (463 rush yds, 4.3 YPC) have both been effective in splitting the carries this year. New York could open up the passing game in this contest, considering the Texans still rank last in the league in passing defense, allowing 301 passing YPG. QB Mark Sanchez has thrown for 635 yards and three touchdowns in the past two games, both overtime road wins.

                  The Jets are 4-0 (SU and ATS) all-time against the Texans. New York dominated last year’s meeting, outgaining Houston 462 to 183 and winning 24-7. These highly-rated FoxSheets trends give two more reasons to expect New York to win and cover again on Sunday.

                  Gary Kubiak is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game as the coach of HOUSTON. The average score was HOUSTON 20.5, OPPONENT 32.1 - (Rating = 5*).

                  Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. (33-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

                  These FoxSheets trends favor the Under.

                  Play Under - Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, in weeks 10 through 13. (44-16 since 1983.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).

                  Play Under - Road teams against the total (HOUSTON) - with a poor defense - allowing 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (35-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 3*).

                  NY JETS are 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was NY JETS 12.1, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*).
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Benson, Ochocinco questionable vs. Bills


                    BUFFALO BILLS (1-8)
                    at CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-7)

                    Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Cincinnati -6, Total: 44

                    The Bengals could be without two key offensive players as they try to end their six-game losing skid in a matchup with 1-8 Buffalo. RB Cedric Benson (foot) and WR Chad Ochocinco (shoulder) are both listed as questionable. Both players are expected to suit up Sunday, but neither will be 100 percent.

                    ******* take:
                    Like most of the Cincinnati team, both injured players have had sub-par seasons. Benson has only averaged 69 rushing YPG this season with one 100-yard game. Last year he averaged 96 rushing yards per game. Ochocinco, who said he couldn’t lift his arm up over his head earlier in the week, has had three great games (85+ yds, 1 TD in each) and six bad ones (under 60 yards, 0 TD) this season. Last year, he averaged 14.5 yards per catch and scored nine times, but those numbers have fallen to 11.9 and three touchdowns.

                    Despite the injuries, Cincinnati should still be able to gain serious yardage against Buffalo’s weak defense. The Bills have a league-low eight takeaways this season and have allowed a league-high 167 rushing YPG. To be fair, Buffalo has only allowed 47 points (15.7 PPG) in its past three games, which is a big improvement from its first six games (33.0 PPG). The Bills have also seen a progression in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who has thrown a touchdown pass in each of his seven games this year.

                    Buffalo has won the past seven meetings with Cincinnati, going 6-1 ATS over that stretch. These highly-rated FoxSheets trends give two more reasons to expect Buffalo to win again on Sunday.

                    Play On - Road teams (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season. (28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*).

                    CINCINNATI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 17.7, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 3*).

                    This FoxSheets trend leans towards the Under.

                    Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. (66-34 since 1983.) (66%, +28.6 units. Rating = 2*).
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Injury-riddled Panthers are big dogs vs. Ravens


                      BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-3)
                      at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-8)

                      Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Baltimore -10.5, Total: 37.5

                      Panthers QB Brian St. Pierre will make his first career start when Carolina hosts Baltimore on Sunday. St. Pierre got the call instead of rookie Tony Pike as the replacement for Jimmy Clausen who is ruled out with a concussion. Carolina will also be without RB DeAngelo Williams (sprained foot, injured reserve), RB Jonathan Stewart (concussion), RB Tyrell Sutton (ankle) and WR Brandon LaFell (concussion).

                      ******* take:
                      St. Pierre is a 30-year-old practice squad player who is 2-for-5 for 12 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his NFL career. For the Panthers to have any shot to keep this close, they have to rely on second-year pro RB Mike Goodson who rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries in 31-16 loss at Tampa Bay last week. WR Steve Smith remains as the best offensive player on the field for Carolina, but he has had a dismal season with just 30 receptions and zero touchdowns since Week 2. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 132 rushing yards per game, the sixth-most in the NFL, but rank fifth in passing defense (195 YPG) because teams they have been in a bunch of blowout games where opponents are milking the clock and running the football with the lead.

                      Baltimore has not played well against bad teams this year. The Ravens lost to the Bengals and barely won two games in which they were favored by 12.5 points. They beat Cleveland by seven and needed overtime to edge Buffalo by three points. QB Joe Flacco has been on fire over his past four games with 10 touchdowns and just one interception.

                      The Panthers are just 1-4 SU and ATS at home this year, with a dismal 46 points in those five games. However, this FoxSheets four-star trend sides with Carolina to keep the final margin within 10 points on Sunday.

                      Play On - Home teams (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (24-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.3%, +21.8 units. Rating = 4*).

                      These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends favor the Under.

                      Fox is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return as the coach of CAROLINA. The average score was CAROLINA 16.8, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 5*).

                      CAROLINA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CAROLINA 14.3, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 4*).
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Injury-riddled Vikings host Packers on Sunday


                        GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)
                        at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-6)

                        Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 44

                        The Packers and Vikings square off for what could be Brett Favre’s final game against his former Green Bay team. Favre was limited in practice this week with his swollen ankle, but his elbow is feeling better. In terms of Favre’s receiving corps, Percy Harvin (ankle) is expected to play, as is Sidney Rice (hip surgery) who was activated from the PUP list for this game. No. 3 WR Bernard Berrian (groin) will be a game-time decision. The Packers also have a key injury to one of their top receivers, as Donald Driver is questionable due to a quadriceps injury that didn’t fully heal during the bye last week.

                        Green Bay’s current three-game win streak began with a 28-24 win over Minnesota and continued with a 9-0 shutout at the New York Jets and a 45-7 demolition of Dallas. Aaron Rodgers threw for 289 yards and three scores against Dallas, and is primed for another monster performance against Minnesota. In his past three games against the Vikings, Rodgers has thrown for 966 yards and seven touchdowns. Driver is a key component to the passing game, but he might be limited in the number of snaps he plays. Rodgers’ No. 1 target continues to be WR Greg Jennings, who has been tremendous recently. He has 25 catches for 368 yards and three touchdowns in his past four games. The Packers have also been great on defense, with 10 forced turnovers during the three-game win streak. LB Clay Matthews continues the lead the NFL with 10.5 sacks, but was limited in practice with a hamstring injury and will likely not be 100 percent when Sunday arrives.

                        Favre’s numbers versus his former team have been very good, completing 65 percent of his passes for 727 yards and eight touchdowns in three games. All three of his interceptions came in the Week 7 meeting in Green Bay. Adrian Peterson has also found running room against the Pack, with 735 rushing yards and five touchdowns in seven meetings. Peterson will be the focal point of the offense with all the injuries to Favre and his receivers. Rice was Favre’s go-to guy last year (83 receptions, 1,312 yds, 8 TD), but Rice has not regained his pre-injury form and may not be on the field for more than 10-to-15 snaps. The Vikings defense has allowed 21-plus points in its past six games and has only forced three turnovers in the past three contests.

                        The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the past 17 series meetings in Minnesota and these two FoxSheets trends also back home underdog Minnesota for Sunday’s game.

                        Play On - Underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

                        Play Against - Road favorites (GREEN BAY) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. (25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*).

                        This FoxSheets trend leans toward the Over.

                        GREEN BAY is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was GREEN BAY 26.0, OPPONENT 22.8 - (Rating = 3*).
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          NFL Odds: Reeling Texans visit Jets

                          The once-promising Houston Texans are reeling with three straight losses as they battle the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

                          Bookmaker.com has the Jets as seven-point home favorites with a total of 45 ½-points. Houston is plus 250 to avoid its fourth consecutive defeat.

                          The Texans (4-5 straight-up, 3-6 against the spread) are finding new ways to lose each week. A 23-14 third quarter lead versus San Diego two weeks ago turned into a 29-23 loss after two Philip Rivers touchdown passes. Houston was inside the San Diego 30-yard-line with over a minute left, but receiver Andre Johnson let a ball go off his knee for an interception.

                          That crushing loss can’t even compare to last week at Jacksonville. Jaguars’ wide receiver Mike Thomas pulled down a 50-yard Hail Mary pass after Houston corner Glover Quin batted it right into his hands. Jacksonville won 31-24 as one-point favorites, avoiding overtime on that final play.

                          Houston is now 0-5 ATS in its last five games. This team has to be down emotionally and will need to quickly flip the switch.

                          Coach Gary Kubiak’s team has wasted a 2-0 start and is last in the AFC South behind Indianapolis (6-3), Tennessee (5-4) and Jacksonville (5-4). The Texans have never made the playoffs in franchise history (starting in 2002), with the first winning season (9-7) coming last year.

                          Kubiak did sign a contract extension through 2012 before the season, but his job is in jeopardy if the team doesn’t make the playoffs. The bad news is the schedule only gets harder with Baltimore, Philadelphia and Tennessee (twice) over the next month.

                          Houston’s offense is doing enough to win at 24.1 PPG, 10th in the league. Matt Schaub and the passing attack (ranked 11th) have seen their numbers dip, but that’s because Arian Foster and the running game (ranked seventh) are bringing balance.

                          The real problem has been the 31st ranked defense (409.7 YPG), dead-last against the pass (301.3 YPG). The Texans haven’t given up less than 24 points in any game this year (helping the ‘over’ go 6-3). Unless that starts to change, the playoffs will be just a dream.

                          The Jets (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) are sky-high emotionally after a 26-20 OT win in Cleveland. That was a fortunate cover as 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’ They’re the first team in NFL history to win back-to-back overtime road games after winning 23-20 in Detroit the week before.

                          New York seems very loose in these late-game situations. It comes partially from head coach Rex Ryan, a players coach and jokester to the nth degree, who was wearing a wig during a pre-game press conference last week.

                          Quarterback Mark Sanchez has shown increased maturity the last two weeks and it also helps to have a go-to receiver in Santonio Holmes. There has been some luck involved, but Super Bowl caliber teams win close games and the Jets are getting it done.

                          Sanchez should have success against the Houston secondary, but it’s never in the Jets’ game-plan to consistently air it out. They will be methodical on offense and move the ball by both running and passing.

                          Schaub has success throwing on almost everyone, but sacks allowed (21) have been a problem. That’s especially dangerous against a blitzing Jets defense. Foster will need to run successfully to take some pressure off.

                          New York is 2-2 SU and ATS at home. The two losses were 10-9 in the opener to Baltimore and 9-0 to Green Bay in the last home game on Oct. 31. The offensive breakdowns at home are puzzling, but can be corrected. The ‘over’ is 7-2 for New York this year, 2-2 at home and 5-0 away.

                          The Jets are 4-0 SU and ATS lifetime versus the Texans. The last game was a 24-7 road win last September. The ‘under’ is 4-0 with no combined score over 37 points.

                          Houston tight end Owen Daniels is questionable to miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury. Jets’ receiver Jerricho Cotchery is likely out with a groin.

                          Kickoff from New Meadowlands Stadium will be 10:00 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather should partly cloudy in the 40s.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Vick, Eagles NFL odds favorites versus Giants

                            Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles get the spotlight again this week as they host the New York Giants in NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

                            The Eagles and Vick made a huge impression last NFL betting week as they looked unstoppable in a 59-28 win over Washington on Monday night. Vick played better than a quarterback has ever played and with one game has gotten himself into the MVP conversation.

                            Philadelphia and New York are tied for first in the NFC East so the winner of this game will take over the division lead.

                            Philadelphia is a three-point favorite with a total of 48 at *** Global.

                            Michael Vick was so phenomenal last week that people are wondering whether the Eagles can be stopped. We should find out on Sunday night as the Giants have a much better defense than what Washington has. The Giants will try and put some pressure on Vick and slow down the Eagles offense.

                            The Eagles are 4-0 this season in NFL betting games that Vick started and finished. Vick is the highest-rated passer in the NFL and has not turned the ball over this season.

                            The Giants were rolling along having won five straight until last week when they laid an egg in a 33-20 loss against Dallas. New York didn’t play well on either side of the ball. The defense gave up 427 yards and the offense turned it over three times.

                            Philadelphia has won the last four matchups between the two teams including a sweep last season. Both games last season were high scoring as the Eagles won 40-17 at home and 45-38 on the road. Here are more football betting stats for Sunday’s game:

                            •The Giants are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games.
                            •New York is 3-11 ATS inits last 14 games in Week 11.
                            •The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Philadelphia.
                            •The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.
                            •Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last seven versus the NFC East.
                            On the totals betting front, the 'over' is 4-0 in the Giants' last four games overall. The 'over' is 8-0 in New York's last eight against NFC East opponents. The 'over' is 5-0 in the Eagles' last five games overall and 11-4-1 in the Eagles' last 16 home games. The 'over' is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
                              11/18/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                              11/15/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                              11/14/10 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail
                              11/11/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                              11/08/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                              11/07/10 11-8-1 57.89% +1100 Detail
                              11/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              Totals 29-24-1 54.72% +1300

                              Sunday, November 21Game Score Status Pick Amount

                              Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +5 500
                              Cincinnati - Under 41.5 500

                              Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +6 500
                              Dallas - Over 47 500

                              Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -9 500
                              Kansas City - Over 43.5 500

                              Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston +6.5 500 ( AFC SHOCKER )
                              N.Y. Jets - Under 45.5 500

                              Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +1.5 500
                              Jacksonville - Over 43 500

                              Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +9 500
                              Pittsburgh - Over 40.5 500

                              Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -11 500
                              Carolina - Over 37 500

                              Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3 500
                              Minnesota - Over 44 500

                              Washington - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -7 500
                              Tennessee - Over 44 500

                              Atlanta - 4:05 PM ET Atlanta -3 500
                              St. Louis - Over 43 500

                              Tampa Bay - 4:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +3.5 500
                              San Francisco - Under 42.5 500

                              Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +11.5 500
                              New Orleans - Over 44 500

                              Indianapolis - 4:15 PM ET Indianapolis +4 500
                              New England - Under 49.5 500

                              N.Y. Giants - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Giants +3 500
                              Philadelphia - Over 47.5 500
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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