Play Over on teams returning from bye week
Week 11 will feature the last group of teams coming off of their bye weeks (Green Bay, New Orleans, Oakland and San Diego). Let’s take a look at how the rest of the league has fared so far with an extra week of rest and preparation.
Through 10 weeks, there have been 26 games featuring 28 teams coming off their bye weeks. For the purposes of this study, we have left out the two matchups in which both teams were coming off a layoff since there was a winner and loser both ATS and SU in each game (Indianapolis vs. Houston in Week 8 and San Francisco vs. St. Louis in Week 10). In the other 24 games, the team coming off the bye has a slight advantage ATS at 12-10 (55%), while posting a more impressive 15-9 mark SU (63%). Interestingly, the Over has been hit in 17 of these 24 contests (71%).
Digging a bit further, we compared the numbers of teams returning from a bye to play at home versus on the road. For this examination, we’ll include the two games in which both teams were returning from byes because each team falls into a separate category. We found that home teams coming off a bye have performed better than those returning to play a road game both ATS and SU. Home teams are 8-6 ATS (57%) and 12-3 SU (80%), while road teams are 6-6 ATS (50%) and 5-8 SU (38%). The over/under numbers remain solid in both situations, with the Over hitting on 8-of-13 games (62%) in which the home team was returning from a bye, and 11-of-15 games (73%) in which the road team was coming back from the layoff.
None of the four teams returning from byes this week are facing each other, resulting in four wagering opportunities, featuring two road teams and two home teams. Here are the games, along with some handicapping angles urging bettors to play the Over found in the FoxSheets:
(Team coming off the bye in CAPS)
GREEN BAY at Minnesota
Green Bay is 9-0 Over (+9.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was Green Bay 26.0, Opponent 22.8 - (Rating = 3*).
OAKLAND at Pittsburgh
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (Oakland) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs. (44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).
Seattle at NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans under head coach Sean Payton is 26-11 Over (70.3%, +13.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. The average score was New Orleans 28.9, Opponent 24.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Denver at SAN DIEGO
Denver and San Diego are both 6-3 Over (67%) through nine games this season.
Week 11 will feature the last group of teams coming off of their bye weeks (Green Bay, New Orleans, Oakland and San Diego). Let’s take a look at how the rest of the league has fared so far with an extra week of rest and preparation.
Through 10 weeks, there have been 26 games featuring 28 teams coming off their bye weeks. For the purposes of this study, we have left out the two matchups in which both teams were coming off a layoff since there was a winner and loser both ATS and SU in each game (Indianapolis vs. Houston in Week 8 and San Francisco vs. St. Louis in Week 10). In the other 24 games, the team coming off the bye has a slight advantage ATS at 12-10 (55%), while posting a more impressive 15-9 mark SU (63%). Interestingly, the Over has been hit in 17 of these 24 contests (71%).
Digging a bit further, we compared the numbers of teams returning from a bye to play at home versus on the road. For this examination, we’ll include the two games in which both teams were returning from byes because each team falls into a separate category. We found that home teams coming off a bye have performed better than those returning to play a road game both ATS and SU. Home teams are 8-6 ATS (57%) and 12-3 SU (80%), while road teams are 6-6 ATS (50%) and 5-8 SU (38%). The over/under numbers remain solid in both situations, with the Over hitting on 8-of-13 games (62%) in which the home team was returning from a bye, and 11-of-15 games (73%) in which the road team was coming back from the layoff.
None of the four teams returning from byes this week are facing each other, resulting in four wagering opportunities, featuring two road teams and two home teams. Here are the games, along with some handicapping angles urging bettors to play the Over found in the FoxSheets:
(Team coming off the bye in CAPS)
GREEN BAY at Minnesota
Green Bay is 9-0 Over (+9.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was Green Bay 26.0, Opponent 22.8 - (Rating = 3*).
OAKLAND at Pittsburgh
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (Oakland) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs. (44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).
Seattle at NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans under head coach Sean Payton is 26-11 Over (70.3%, +13.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. The average score was New Orleans 28.9, Opponent 24.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Denver at SAN DIEGO
Denver and San Diego are both 6-3 Over (67%) through nine games this season.
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