Under-the-Radar Teams, Part I
We can remember the days when the gap between the end of the World Series and the start of the college basketball season would last almost two months. Nowadays, we don’t even get two weeks between their respective campaigns. And, hard as it is to believe, we begin covering college hoops action in this issue, with a limited slate of games, before the slate increases exponentially for our next issue on November 11.
With over 200 college teams to follow, it’s important to identify at least a few sides that might be flying under the radar, especially in the early stages of the campaign. Of course, it’s imperative to make adjustments based upon performance as the season progresses. But in the first portion of the campaign, we’re relying a lot upon our scouts and other sources, plus our own intuitions honed from having gone through this exercise countless times, to seek a handful of teams (and not necessarily the Dukes and Kentuckys) to keep an eye on as the campaign commences. Following is the first glance at a handful of those sorts of squads we intend to watch closely this season; stay tuned for other upcoming "under the radar" alerts.
Clemson...While everyone in the ACC has an eye on Duke, we might suggest paying some attention to that orange-clad bunch from South Carolina. We’ve seen what HC Brad Brownell can do with modest material, recalling his NCAA teams from NC-Wilmington and Wright State that annually punched above their weight. Now, Brownell (who got a close look at ACC hoops from his days at Wilmington) has some real talent at his disposal in his new gig at Littlejohn Coliseum, as he inherits a Clemson program that won at least 20 games four years running under Oliver Purnell (who departed for DePaul). We suspect the Tigers might be a bit undervalued thanks to the usual ACC logjam of contenders, not to mention coping with the graduation of do-everything F Trevor Booker. But there is plenty of experience in a veteran backcourt led by 6'2 Demontez Stith. And rugged 6'8 sr. C Jerai Grant is a chip off the block, the son of former star Horace Grant and nephew of Harvey Grant. Jerai’s ability to defend in the post and act as an intimidator in the key adds a valuable component at the stop end, although Brownell will be looking to ballyhooed 6'9 Milton Jennings to begin living up to some of his press clippings after a very so-so frosh debut last season. The adjustment to "Brownell Ball" shouldn’t be too hard for the Tigers, who were similarly schooled in emphasizing defense and sharing the ball on offense under Purnell.
Georgia... SEC insiders wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bulldogs make it to the Big Dance for the first time since 2008. Georgia’s surprising impact under new HC Mark Fox (from Nevada) a year ago wasn’t measured as much in the overall 14-17 mark, but rather in the quality of many of those victories. During a midseason stretch that extended into early February, the Dawgs beat Illinois and three ranked teams (Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt), with near-misses against No. 21 Ole Miss, eventual SEC West champ Mississippi State, and South Carolina. The decision of F Trey Tompkins to pull his name from last June’s NBA Draft makes sure that Fox again will have one of the most-unique threats in the SEC at his disposal, as the 6'10 jr. has plenty of "game," with the ability to go inside (note the 17 rebounds he gobbled in a game last season vs. Bama) or outside (37.7% from tripleville). Moreover, Fox landed one of the region’s top recruits in 6'9 frosh Marcus Thornton, last year’s "Mr. Basketball" in Georgia and originally slated to attend Clemson before de-committing when HC Oliver Purnell moved to DePaul. Fox won a brief but furious recruiting war for Thornton, who led Westlake High to the state AAAAA championship. Georgia has as much size as any team in the SEC, while highlight-reel 6'4 swingman Travis Leslie has reportedly improved his 3-point stroke to complement his ability to slash toward the hoop. As long as 5'11 jr. Dustin Ware can handle PG duties, Georgia rates as one of the intriguing darkhorses of the campaign, with the potential to do real damage in march if all of the pieces (especially frosh Thornton) come together.
Lipscomb... Looking for a real sleeper team? Try Lipscomb, which has usually played second-fiddle to Nashville neighbor Belmont, but this year it’s the Bisons who appear to be the team to beat in the better-than-advertised Atlantic Sun. Seven of the top eight scorers from a year ago return for HC Scott Sanderson, whose veteran team is approaching the season in NCAA-or-bust mode. Bullish 6'8 sr. PF Adnan Hodzic (22.7 ppg LY) pulled his name from the NBA Draft in order to return for a last hurrah at Allen Arena, with sr. PG Josh Slater (17.1 ppg LY) the other half of Lipscomb’s deadly 1-2, inside-outside punch. In addition, 6-7 sr. stopper Brandon Brown gives the Bisons good length on the perimeter and a defensive answer to most opponents’ top scoring threats, while the Lipscomb bench is deep and experienced. The Bisons will likely have pointspreads posted in several "added" games in pre-conference play vs. the likes of North Carolina, Baylor, Alabama, and Memphis, all of which will have to be on alert. Don’t be surprised if we’re talking about Lipscomb again in March.
Penn State... Last season was a letdown for the Nittany Lions after winning the NIT with many of the same components the previous year. But the margin between success and failure in a rugged league such as the Big Ten can be very slight; after winning 12 of 14 games decided by 5 points or fewer in 2008-09, Penn State reversed that mark to 2-12 in close decisions a year ago. And subsequent transfers of a couple of key components (including starting shooting G Chris Babb) have moved the Nittany Lions further from the spotlight entering 2010-11. But the return of star PG Talor Battle for his senior season should prove invaluable, especially running the offense on the hostile Big Ten trail. The core of the team is mostly seniors, as C Andrew Jones, swingman David Jackson, and F Jeff Brooks, along with Battle, have logged a collective 301 starts entering their senior campaigns. It’s hoped that newcomers such as touted PG Taran Buie (Battle’s half brother who can provide a bit of relief for his sibling) and athletic wings Tre Bowman and Jonathan Graham can provide HC Ed DeChellis with the sort of spark off the bench that was missing for much of last season.
Saint Louis... No one was expecting much from Rick Majerus’ Billikens last season when entering the campaign with a frosh and soph-dominated roster. But Majerus mixed and matched the mostly-young components expertly, and along with the trademark Majerus defense, the Bills evolved into a formidable outfit and reached the postseason, advancing all of the way to the CBI Finals before bowing to Virginia Commonwealth. Now SLU has a veteran look with four or five starters returning, although the Bills will have to prove they are beyond the frequent blackouts experienced on the attack end where their offense often disappeared, such as in the A-10 Tourney quarterfinals vs. Rhode Island when held to just 47 points, and a regular-season game vs. Richmond when the Spiders limited the Bills to only 36. Having 6'8 soph Aussie F Cody Ellis available from the outset (he wasn’t eligible the first 14 games a year ago) should prove a plus. A-10 sources indicate Majerus can deal with the transfer of 6’9 F Willie Reed, who blew very hot and cold last year. Junior PG Kwamain Mitchell, who could miss early time due to a possible suspension, is an explosive scoring threat (team-best 15.9 ppg) but whose score-first mindset might not be ideally suited to effective PG work. And that’s important, because Mitchell is the main supply line to the frontcourt, which needs more reliable service to flourish. Still, with everybody on hand from a year ago, SLU should be in the usual scrum of A-10 entries competing for postseason berths, and could emerge as a possible sleeper for a Big Dance at-large berth.
Texas Tech... There’s no guarantee HC Pat Knight, rumored to be on thin ice, will last beyond this season in Lubbock, hence the sense of urgency attached to 2010-11 for his Red Raiders. But a breakthrough might be imminent with an established senior core featuring explosive 6'6 swingman Mike Singletary (15 ppg), PG John Roberson (14.5 ppg), and 6'7 rebound/defense ace D’walyn Roberts, who battled ankle injuries for much of last season. Tech was a bit Jekyll-and-Hide a year ago, winning nine straight out of the gate to break into the Top 25 before falling apart in Big XII play when losing 12 of 16 games. Given a late reprieve with an NIT bid, however, the Red Raiders responded and reached the third round, effectively ending the career of Seton Hall HC Bobby Gonzalez along the way. It’s hoped that beefy 6'9 juco Paul Cooper can add more presence and rebound power in the paint, elements that were both lacking a year ago from 6'10 Robert Lewandowski, who endured a sophomore slump after mostly-encouraging work as a frosh. Should big Robert finally live up to the potential he flashed in his debut two years ago, and the bulky Cooper provide an intimidation factor, the Red Raiders could finally be a complete team. And perhaps enough to keep Pat Knight (33-35 in two-and-a-half previous seasons on the job) in the saddle and papa Bob happy as well.
UC Davis... We’ve written on these pages about the sad decline of Big West basketball, which can thank the NCAA Tourney expansion to 68 teams for removing any chance that the conference winner might be sentenced to the now-eliminated play-in game between seeds 64 and 65 (now, there’s will be three extra at-large teams added to the mix, with the final at-large teams now participating in four play-in games). Another indicator of where Big West hoops has fallen is the fact that scouts tell us the league is probably without any NBA prospects save perhaps UC Davis’ hybrid 6-7 sr. PG Mark Payne. Keeping Payne healthy gives the Aggies by far the league’s most-versatile threat, too big for smaller guards and too quick for most frontliners, with the ability to post up or beat defenders off the dribble. Payne has even forced some UCD foes into gimmick defenses designed to cope with his skills. The Ags, however, have a few other interesting pieces including 6'8 Joe Harden and 6'5 Cal transfer Eddie Miller, who will likely become a much-needed defensive ace for HC Gary Stewart. UCD causes opponents to make adjustments, as the Ags’ motion offense technically designates everyone as a guard and does not include a true post player, though Payne and Harden in particular can both operate effectively on the blocks if needed. Regional sources believe UCD might finally be ready to make a serious move in conference play and cause some trouble vs. a group of higher-profile pre-league foes that includes Cal and UCLA.
Vanderbilt... While most SEC observers by habit keep their eyes poised on Lexington, maybe it’s the Dores they ought to be watching. Although on the surface it would seem that Vandy might regress now minus 6'11 Aussie C A.J. Ogilvy, SEC insiders believe the Dores might be the team to beat in the East, especially if 6'11 C Festus Ezeli finally experiences a breakout campaign (scouts were impressed that Ezeli confidently hit jump shots and free throws, both beyond big Festus in recent campaigns, in Wednesday’s exhibition win over Alabama-Huntsville). Along with another junior, 6'9 Steve Tchiengang, Vandy could have a ferocious defensive presence in the paint. Whether the Dores can advance to their third Sweet Sixteen for HC Kevin Stallings since 2004 probably relies upon developing another consistent perimeter threat to go along with 6'4 soph sharpshooter John Jenkins, who canned 48.3% of his triples last year; 6'7 junior Jeffery Taylor, an effective slasher and 2nd team All-SEC pick last year, reportedly improved his shooting stroke over the summer. It would also help if jr. combo G Brad Tinsley, now back at the point after playing at the two position last year when Jermaine Beal manned the PG spot, rediscovers the shooting touch he lost a year ago, when hitting just 29.5% of his 3s after a much better 41.9% beyond the arc as a frosh. A newcomer to watch is quicksilver frosh G Kyle Fuller, who will offer a nice change-of-pace at the outset but who could possibly bump Tinsley out of the starting lineup at some point during the campaign.
We can remember the days when the gap between the end of the World Series and the start of the college basketball season would last almost two months. Nowadays, we don’t even get two weeks between their respective campaigns. And, hard as it is to believe, we begin covering college hoops action in this issue, with a limited slate of games, before the slate increases exponentially for our next issue on November 11.
With over 200 college teams to follow, it’s important to identify at least a few sides that might be flying under the radar, especially in the early stages of the campaign. Of course, it’s imperative to make adjustments based upon performance as the season progresses. But in the first portion of the campaign, we’re relying a lot upon our scouts and other sources, plus our own intuitions honed from having gone through this exercise countless times, to seek a handful of teams (and not necessarily the Dukes and Kentuckys) to keep an eye on as the campaign commences. Following is the first glance at a handful of those sorts of squads we intend to watch closely this season; stay tuned for other upcoming "under the radar" alerts.
Clemson...While everyone in the ACC has an eye on Duke, we might suggest paying some attention to that orange-clad bunch from South Carolina. We’ve seen what HC Brad Brownell can do with modest material, recalling his NCAA teams from NC-Wilmington and Wright State that annually punched above their weight. Now, Brownell (who got a close look at ACC hoops from his days at Wilmington) has some real talent at his disposal in his new gig at Littlejohn Coliseum, as he inherits a Clemson program that won at least 20 games four years running under Oliver Purnell (who departed for DePaul). We suspect the Tigers might be a bit undervalued thanks to the usual ACC logjam of contenders, not to mention coping with the graduation of do-everything F Trevor Booker. But there is plenty of experience in a veteran backcourt led by 6'2 Demontez Stith. And rugged 6'8 sr. C Jerai Grant is a chip off the block, the son of former star Horace Grant and nephew of Harvey Grant. Jerai’s ability to defend in the post and act as an intimidator in the key adds a valuable component at the stop end, although Brownell will be looking to ballyhooed 6'9 Milton Jennings to begin living up to some of his press clippings after a very so-so frosh debut last season. The adjustment to "Brownell Ball" shouldn’t be too hard for the Tigers, who were similarly schooled in emphasizing defense and sharing the ball on offense under Purnell.
Georgia... SEC insiders wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bulldogs make it to the Big Dance for the first time since 2008. Georgia’s surprising impact under new HC Mark Fox (from Nevada) a year ago wasn’t measured as much in the overall 14-17 mark, but rather in the quality of many of those victories. During a midseason stretch that extended into early February, the Dawgs beat Illinois and three ranked teams (Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt), with near-misses against No. 21 Ole Miss, eventual SEC West champ Mississippi State, and South Carolina. The decision of F Trey Tompkins to pull his name from last June’s NBA Draft makes sure that Fox again will have one of the most-unique threats in the SEC at his disposal, as the 6'10 jr. has plenty of "game," with the ability to go inside (note the 17 rebounds he gobbled in a game last season vs. Bama) or outside (37.7% from tripleville). Moreover, Fox landed one of the region’s top recruits in 6'9 frosh Marcus Thornton, last year’s "Mr. Basketball" in Georgia and originally slated to attend Clemson before de-committing when HC Oliver Purnell moved to DePaul. Fox won a brief but furious recruiting war for Thornton, who led Westlake High to the state AAAAA championship. Georgia has as much size as any team in the SEC, while highlight-reel 6'4 swingman Travis Leslie has reportedly improved his 3-point stroke to complement his ability to slash toward the hoop. As long as 5'11 jr. Dustin Ware can handle PG duties, Georgia rates as one of the intriguing darkhorses of the campaign, with the potential to do real damage in march if all of the pieces (especially frosh Thornton) come together.
Lipscomb... Looking for a real sleeper team? Try Lipscomb, which has usually played second-fiddle to Nashville neighbor Belmont, but this year it’s the Bisons who appear to be the team to beat in the better-than-advertised Atlantic Sun. Seven of the top eight scorers from a year ago return for HC Scott Sanderson, whose veteran team is approaching the season in NCAA-or-bust mode. Bullish 6'8 sr. PF Adnan Hodzic (22.7 ppg LY) pulled his name from the NBA Draft in order to return for a last hurrah at Allen Arena, with sr. PG Josh Slater (17.1 ppg LY) the other half of Lipscomb’s deadly 1-2, inside-outside punch. In addition, 6-7 sr. stopper Brandon Brown gives the Bisons good length on the perimeter and a defensive answer to most opponents’ top scoring threats, while the Lipscomb bench is deep and experienced. The Bisons will likely have pointspreads posted in several "added" games in pre-conference play vs. the likes of North Carolina, Baylor, Alabama, and Memphis, all of which will have to be on alert. Don’t be surprised if we’re talking about Lipscomb again in March.
Penn State... Last season was a letdown for the Nittany Lions after winning the NIT with many of the same components the previous year. But the margin between success and failure in a rugged league such as the Big Ten can be very slight; after winning 12 of 14 games decided by 5 points or fewer in 2008-09, Penn State reversed that mark to 2-12 in close decisions a year ago. And subsequent transfers of a couple of key components (including starting shooting G Chris Babb) have moved the Nittany Lions further from the spotlight entering 2010-11. But the return of star PG Talor Battle for his senior season should prove invaluable, especially running the offense on the hostile Big Ten trail. The core of the team is mostly seniors, as C Andrew Jones, swingman David Jackson, and F Jeff Brooks, along with Battle, have logged a collective 301 starts entering their senior campaigns. It’s hoped that newcomers such as touted PG Taran Buie (Battle’s half brother who can provide a bit of relief for his sibling) and athletic wings Tre Bowman and Jonathan Graham can provide HC Ed DeChellis with the sort of spark off the bench that was missing for much of last season.
Saint Louis... No one was expecting much from Rick Majerus’ Billikens last season when entering the campaign with a frosh and soph-dominated roster. But Majerus mixed and matched the mostly-young components expertly, and along with the trademark Majerus defense, the Bills evolved into a formidable outfit and reached the postseason, advancing all of the way to the CBI Finals before bowing to Virginia Commonwealth. Now SLU has a veteran look with four or five starters returning, although the Bills will have to prove they are beyond the frequent blackouts experienced on the attack end where their offense often disappeared, such as in the A-10 Tourney quarterfinals vs. Rhode Island when held to just 47 points, and a regular-season game vs. Richmond when the Spiders limited the Bills to only 36. Having 6'8 soph Aussie F Cody Ellis available from the outset (he wasn’t eligible the first 14 games a year ago) should prove a plus. A-10 sources indicate Majerus can deal with the transfer of 6’9 F Willie Reed, who blew very hot and cold last year. Junior PG Kwamain Mitchell, who could miss early time due to a possible suspension, is an explosive scoring threat (team-best 15.9 ppg) but whose score-first mindset might not be ideally suited to effective PG work. And that’s important, because Mitchell is the main supply line to the frontcourt, which needs more reliable service to flourish. Still, with everybody on hand from a year ago, SLU should be in the usual scrum of A-10 entries competing for postseason berths, and could emerge as a possible sleeper for a Big Dance at-large berth.
Texas Tech... There’s no guarantee HC Pat Knight, rumored to be on thin ice, will last beyond this season in Lubbock, hence the sense of urgency attached to 2010-11 for his Red Raiders. But a breakthrough might be imminent with an established senior core featuring explosive 6'6 swingman Mike Singletary (15 ppg), PG John Roberson (14.5 ppg), and 6'7 rebound/defense ace D’walyn Roberts, who battled ankle injuries for much of last season. Tech was a bit Jekyll-and-Hide a year ago, winning nine straight out of the gate to break into the Top 25 before falling apart in Big XII play when losing 12 of 16 games. Given a late reprieve with an NIT bid, however, the Red Raiders responded and reached the third round, effectively ending the career of Seton Hall HC Bobby Gonzalez along the way. It’s hoped that beefy 6'9 juco Paul Cooper can add more presence and rebound power in the paint, elements that were both lacking a year ago from 6'10 Robert Lewandowski, who endured a sophomore slump after mostly-encouraging work as a frosh. Should big Robert finally live up to the potential he flashed in his debut two years ago, and the bulky Cooper provide an intimidation factor, the Red Raiders could finally be a complete team. And perhaps enough to keep Pat Knight (33-35 in two-and-a-half previous seasons on the job) in the saddle and papa Bob happy as well.
UC Davis... We’ve written on these pages about the sad decline of Big West basketball, which can thank the NCAA Tourney expansion to 68 teams for removing any chance that the conference winner might be sentenced to the now-eliminated play-in game between seeds 64 and 65 (now, there’s will be three extra at-large teams added to the mix, with the final at-large teams now participating in four play-in games). Another indicator of where Big West hoops has fallen is the fact that scouts tell us the league is probably without any NBA prospects save perhaps UC Davis’ hybrid 6-7 sr. PG Mark Payne. Keeping Payne healthy gives the Aggies by far the league’s most-versatile threat, too big for smaller guards and too quick for most frontliners, with the ability to post up or beat defenders off the dribble. Payne has even forced some UCD foes into gimmick defenses designed to cope with his skills. The Ags, however, have a few other interesting pieces including 6'8 Joe Harden and 6'5 Cal transfer Eddie Miller, who will likely become a much-needed defensive ace for HC Gary Stewart. UCD causes opponents to make adjustments, as the Ags’ motion offense technically designates everyone as a guard and does not include a true post player, though Payne and Harden in particular can both operate effectively on the blocks if needed. Regional sources believe UCD might finally be ready to make a serious move in conference play and cause some trouble vs. a group of higher-profile pre-league foes that includes Cal and UCLA.
Vanderbilt... While most SEC observers by habit keep their eyes poised on Lexington, maybe it’s the Dores they ought to be watching. Although on the surface it would seem that Vandy might regress now minus 6'11 Aussie C A.J. Ogilvy, SEC insiders believe the Dores might be the team to beat in the East, especially if 6'11 C Festus Ezeli finally experiences a breakout campaign (scouts were impressed that Ezeli confidently hit jump shots and free throws, both beyond big Festus in recent campaigns, in Wednesday’s exhibition win over Alabama-Huntsville). Along with another junior, 6'9 Steve Tchiengang, Vandy could have a ferocious defensive presence in the paint. Whether the Dores can advance to their third Sweet Sixteen for HC Kevin Stallings since 2004 probably relies upon developing another consistent perimeter threat to go along with 6'4 soph sharpshooter John Jenkins, who canned 48.3% of his triples last year; 6'7 junior Jeffery Taylor, an effective slasher and 2nd team All-SEC pick last year, reportedly improved his shooting stroke over the summer. It would also help if jr. combo G Brad Tinsley, now back at the point after playing at the two position last year when Jermaine Beal manned the PG spot, rediscovers the shooting touch he lost a year ago, when hitting just 29.5% of his 3s after a much better 41.9% beyond the arc as a frosh. A newcomer to watch is quicksilver frosh G Kyle Fuller, who will offer a nice change-of-pace at the outset but who could possibly bump Tinsley out of the starting lineup at some point during the campaign.
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