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**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:37 PM

Suns at Lakers tops Sunday NBA card

Don’t write off Phoenix Suns guard Steve Nash just yet. Nash is 36 and no longer has Amare Stoudamire to play pick-and-roll with, but he still can be great. The two-time league MVP began this season slow getting adjusted to new starters, but he was magnificent in his last start.

Nash scored 28 points, dished off 14 assists and had seven rebounds this past Friday night as Phoenix defeated Sacramento, 103-89, as seven-point home favorites. The combined 192 points fell way ‘under’ the 215-point NBA betting total.

Nash, though, will have to be at his best again if the Suns are going to stay close on the road against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Game time is 6:30 p.m. PT at Staples Center.

The Lakers aren’t going to be in a great mood after suffering their first loss of the season this past Thursday against Denver.

Los Angeles had won its first eight games. The Lakers were trying to go 9-0 for the first time since the 1997-98 season. The Nuggets, however, came from behind to pull the upset, 118-112, as three-point home underdogs. The 230 points sailed ‘over’ the 212-point ‘over/under.’

Kobe Bryant scored a season-high 34 points in the loss with Pau Gasol contributing 17 points and 20 rebounds. Bryant currently is fourth in the league in scoring at 25.2 points per game. The Lakers are 5-4 ATS.

The Suns certainly won’t lack for motivation either. It was the Lakers who ended their season eliminating Phoenix in six games in the Western Conference finals.

The Suns hosted the Lakers on Oct. 29 and lost 114-106 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. The combined 220 points went ‘over’ the 207-point total. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last seven meetings between the two clubs.

Bryant led Los Angeles with 25 points. Grant Hill had 21 points for the Suns.

Phoenix missed 24-of-33 3-point shots in the loss. Nash didn’t have a great game missing six of nine shots from the floor and scoring eight points.

The Suns, 4-4, ranked last in defensive field goal percentage going into their last game against Sacramento allowing opponents to shoot 48.5 percent from the floor.

Phoenix also was one of the worst teams in the league in turnovers, committing an average of more than 17 a game with Nash turning the ball over nearly five times per game.

“The biggest thing for us, as we get more cohesive, we’ll have less turnovers,” Nash was quoted as saying. “I think that will be a problem that goes away.”

The Suns haven’t adequately replaced Stoudamire. Phoenix’s two centers–Channing Frye and Robin Lopez–were shooting only 34 percent from the floor through this past Thursday. That was worse than any NBA center tandem in the league except for Minnesota’s Darko Milicic and Anthony Tolliver.

Los Angeles is leading the NBA in scoring. The Lakers are averaging 112.1 points per game. Phoenix ranks third averaging 107.6 points. If you discount the Lakers’ lackluster 99-94 home win against Minnesota, they would be averaging 113.7 points.

The Lakers ranked 15th defensively giving up 101.7 points a game, while the Suns were 28th surrendering 107 points.

The ‘under’ has cashed in Phoenix’s last two games after four straight ‘overs.’

After playing the Lakers, the Suns host Denver on Monday. The Suns then embark on a four-game road trip beginning with Miami on Wednesday followed by Orlando on Thursday. The Suns are 2-2 straight-up and ATS on the road.

The Lakers go on a three-game road swing following this matchup beginning with a Tuesday game against Milwaukee.

Los Angeles is 6-0 straight-up at home, but 3-3 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:38 PM

Princeton at No. 1 Duke
Sunday, Nov. 14, 2 p.m. PT - Cameron Indoor Std. - Durham

Don't laugh, but there's a lot more to watch here than the Blue Devils. Pete Carril won't be on the Princeton bench in his lucky sweater to help spur the team on, but the truth is this is a pretty solid group of Tigers that enters the season as the top threat to take the Ivy League title.

Sydney Johnson and the Tigers will have a quick turnaround to travel for this one from their season opener on Friday as seven-point favorites at home against Rutgers. That certainly could work against Princeton along with the fact it will be facing the top team in the land with its rabid fans all amped up for the first game since Duke won it all last April. The Tigers will feature their proverbial scrappy defense and a pretty good backcourt in senior Dan Mavraides and junior Doug Davis, plus another senior on the inside in 6-foot-8 Kareem Maddox.

Mike Krzyzewski also has some solid upperclassmen of his own in seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. The Blue Devils lost a lot in Jon Scheyer plus Brian Zoubek's big body. But don't worry, Duke has two new faces that will be the difference in this team repeating or not. Freshman Kyrie Irving was among the top 5-6 recruits from the 2010 high school class and he's counted on to make several second- and third-team All-America lists at season's end.

Seth Curry is officially a sophomore but will be making his Duke debut on Sunday. He sat out a year ago after transferring from Liberty where he led all of the country's freshmen in the 2008-09 with a 20.2 average.

ESPNU will have this game and it should be must-see on every college basketball handicapper's slate. Duke remains at home next week with a Tuesday tilt versus Miami-OH and a Friday matchup with Colgate. Princeton's next trip to the hardwood is Nov. 22 at James Madison.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:39 PM

Lightning, Wild end NHL betting week

A pair of NHL teams attempting to snap short two-game losing skids meet in a Sunday matinee when the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Minnesota Wild. Special teams should be a key here, as Tampa Bay ranks second in penalty killing, while Minnesota ranks first in power play efficiency.

Minnesota is concluding a four-game road excursion in this spot. The Wild defeated Columbus 3-2 to begin the trip, but then lost a 5-1 decision at Atlanta and suffered Friday’s 2-1 setback at Florida in the most recent game.

The combined three goals against the Panthers dipped below the 5 ½-goal closing total, which enabled the ‘under’ to improve to 7-1 in Minnesota’s last eight encounters.

The Wild have now scored two goals or less in eight of their last nine outings despite owning the league’s best power play at 27.7 percent. Part of the problem on offense is a lack of shots on goal. Todd Richards’ troops are averaging a league-low 25 shots per contest.

Minnesota’s lone goal in Friday’s loss at Florida occurred with the man advantage, giving the club at least one power play marker in five of its last seven contests.

The Wild, outshot by the Panthers, 27-23, have now been outshot in each of their last 10 contests. Backup goalie Jose Theodore stopped 25 of those 27 shots for the Wild in a losing effort, and saw his record drop to 1-2-0.

Niklas Backstrom, who is Minnesota’s No.1 netminder, is expected to get the nod in Sunday’s matinee. Backstrom is 6-4-0-2 in 12 starts with a 2.06 GAA, .933 save percentage and one shutout.

Minnesota is scoring and allowing an identical 2.3 goals per game. The offensive mark ranks a poor 27th, while the defensive number is a much better seventh.

Though the Wild are 7-3-1 in the last 11 series meetings against Tampa Bay, they did suffer a 4-3 shootout loss in the lone meeting last season as 115 road underdogs on the NHL odds board.

Injuries might be a concern for the Wild in this spot as right winger Chuck Kobasew (groin) and defenseman Marek Zidlicky (lower body) are both listed as “questionable.” In addition, Wild defenseman Brent Burns could be facing a possible suspension for a fighting incident as the buzzer sounded in Friday’s loss.

Tampa Bay returns home after getting spanked in both contests of its short two-game road trip. The Lightning were on the short end of Thursday’s 6-3 contest at Washington, and then were clobbered at Pittsburgh the next night, 5-1.

The Lightning have now yielded five goals or more in three of their last four games. That goes a long way in explaining why they are now ranked 23rd on defense, allowing an average of 3.1 goals per game. They are scoring 2.9 GPG (ranked 11th), despite putting up an average of 32.4 shots on goal, which ranks sixth.

Mike Smith stopped 15-of-20 shots during Friday’s 5-1 loss at Pittsburgh. The setback lowered Smith’s ledger to 4-3-0-0 and raised his goals-against average to a bloated 3.62. He also has a poor .869 save percentage and has yet to register a shutout.

Dan Ellis saved 20-of-25 shots in the loss at Washington to see his record fall to 4-3-2-0. However, Ellis does have a respectable 2.47 GAA and .910 save percentage. He has collected one shutout.

Tampa Bay ranks sixth on the power play, connecting on 22.5 percent of its opportunities. However, the club ranks second in penalty killing, fighting off 89.9 percent of its opponents’ chances with the man advantage.

Right winger Steve Downie is listed as “questionable” for Sunday’s contest against the Wild.

Minnesota is off until Wednesday when it returns home to meet the Anaheim Ducks. Tampa Bay begins a three-game road trip Wednesday with a stop in New York to play the Islanders.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:40 PM

CFL Playoff Odds: Lions at Roughriders

The British Columbia Lions will try and continue their late season roll right into the CFL playoffs when they take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the West Division semifinals this Sunday afternoon. The game will be played at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan with kickoff set for 1:30 p.m. (PT). The game will also be broadcast live on TSN.

B.C. comes into this game as the hottest team in the league, having won seven of its last 10 games after getting off to a disastrous 1-7 start. The Lions lost the regular season series against Saskatchewan two games to one, but came away victorious the last time they met on Oct. 31.

The Roughriders opened the three-game series with a convincing 37-18 win in Week 2. They covered the spread as a two-point road underdog and the total went ‘over’ the 53-point line. The second time around in Week 7 it was all Saskatchewan again in a 37-13 romp. This time the Roughriders covered as an eight-point home favorite and the total stayed ‘under’ the 54 ½-point line.

The third time the two matched up proved to be the charm for the Lions as they came away with a hard-fought 23-17 victory as a three-point home favorite.

Sportsinteraction.com has opened the Roughriders as a five-point favorite for this game and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 52.

One of the keys to this contest for B.C. will be the ability of quarterback Travis Lulay to play to his capabilities and not get sloppy with the ball. He has looked brilliant at times this season, but has also been prone to turning the ball over at the most inopportune times. He finished the season completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 2,602 yards but did throw 11 interceptions to go along with his nine touchdown passes.

The other key will be the play of all-star wide receiver Geroy Simon, who finished the regular season with 78 receptions for 1,190 yards and six touchdowns. Simon came up big in his second game against the Roughriders this season, with eight catches for 169 yards and two TD’s.

Saskatchewan limps into the postseason having lost four of its last five games. It managed to build a bit of momentum with a 31-23 win over Edmonton in last week’s season finale, but you have to wonder whether this team peaked too early after a 9-4 start.

If the Roughriders are going to right the ship and get back to this year’s Grey Cup, it will be behind the arm of QB Darian Durant. Durant led the CFL in passing this season with 5,552 yards; completing 60.7 percent of his passes. He ended the year with 25 TD throws but also was intercepted a league-high 22 times. Slotback Andy Fantuz has been Durant’s favorite target as he led the league with 87 receptions for 1,380 yards. He had 17 catches for 203 yards and one TD in the three games against the Lions.

B.C. ended the regular season 8-10 straight-up and was 7-11 against the CFL spread. The Lions were 5-4 SU in nine games on the road and 4-5 ATS. The total went ‘over’ in six of their last 10 games overall.

Saskatchewan finished second to Calgary in the West with a 10-8 record SU and was 8-9 ATS. The Roughriders went 7-2 SU at home this season but were just 4-4 ATS. The total stayed ‘under’ in five of their last nine games.

The Lions bring a ton of momentum into the postseason after basically playing in a playoff atmosphere for their last three ‘must-win’ games of the regular season. B.C. , at the very least, will be able to keep this game close enough to cover with the five points, but have an excellent chance of winning this game outright.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:41 PM

Hamilton CFL odds favorites versus Toronto

The quest for the 2010 Grey Cup gets underway this Sunday when the Toronto Argonauts will try and end a four-game losing streak to the East Division rival Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the semifinal round of the CFL playoffs. Kickoff from Ivor Wynne Stadium in Hamilton is set for 10 a.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast live on TSN.

Toronto’s dramatic turnaround from winning just seven games the past two seasons combined to earning a spot in this year’s playoffs has had one serious flaw: its inability to compete against Hamilton. The Argonauts lost all three games the two teams played this season by a combined score of 75-28, failing to cover the spread each time.

The first matchup saw the game remain close throughout with Hamilton coming away with a 16-12 win as a three-point road underdog. Things got progressively worse from there for the Argos with the Tiger-Cats winning the next game 28-13 as a four-point home favorite. The last meeting between the two on Oct. 15 was even uglier as Hamilton rolled to a 30-3 victory as a one-point underdog.

Sportsinteraction.com has opened the Tiger-Cats as a seven-point favorite this time around and the ‘over/under’ line is set at 48.

There is little wonder about a wide spread in this game given the way Hamilton has dominated this series in 2010. Much of the damage in these games was self-inflicted by the Argonauts themselves. They committed a whopping 15 turnovers in three games led by CFL rookie QB Cleo Lemons’ five interceptions and three lost fumbles.

Lemon was also sacked 11 times as Toronto’s offensive line had no answer for stopping a relentless Tiger-Cat pass rush led by DE Stevie Baggs.

Baggs ended up being a brilliant free-agent acquisition for Hamilton. He recorded five sacks, one forced fumble, three fumble recoveries, and scored two touchdowns in the span of just seven games this season.

Even Toronto RB Cory Boyd, who was second in the league in rushing this season with 1,359 yards, had a rough time of it against a stout Hamilton defense. He was held to a total of 161 yards on the ground for an average of just 53.7 yards per game.

Offensively, Toronto will have to contend with the arm of QB Kevin Glenn. He completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 774 yards and threw three TD’s in the three games against the Argos this year. Look for WR Arland Bruce, who used to play for Toronto, to be his primary target on Sunday.

The one thing the Argonauts have in their favor is the big play capability of special-teamer Chad Owens. He led the league in both punt and kickoff returns and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Hamilton did a good job keeping the wraps on him during the regular season, but he is a player to watch in this one.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:43 PM

NBA betting totals level in early going

When it comes to choosing a hotel to stay at there's an old adage that is still true today: Don't get sucked in by the lobby. The 2010-11 NBA season is roughly in the lobby stage right now with about 10 percent of regular season games in the books.

Exactly 1,000 regular season games remain on the schedule, and that presents a lot of opportunity for early trends to do a 180. A key injury here or there will affect the standings and the betting odds. One blockbuster trade next January or February can turn a team from a simple contender into the favorite overnight. Heck, we haven't even had the first arrest for guns/drugs/both.

Here's a quick look at a few things we've seen that bear watching, a couple of trends plus some of this weekend's action.

Hornets on 82-0 pace

Forget about the fact that New Orleans is 7-0 straight up. In the end the team isn't going to even come close to the 72-10 mark the '95-'96 Bulls pulled off, even a 62-win season is stretching it.

Still, the Hornets' 7-0 start to the season against the spread is worth keeping an eye on in the short- and long-term. New Orleans' latest double triumph came Tuesday at home in a 101-82 thumping of the Clippers. The Hornets were 9½-point favorites and featured six players in double figures on the scoreboard, paced by Willie Green's 19 off the bench.

The injury to Chris Paul last season showed how easy a team like New Orleans can go from playoff hopeful to the bottom of its division. Paul missed 37 games and wasn't 100 percent for some of the 45 he did play. The Hornets sunk to the bottom of the Southwest Division and posted a rather puny 11-19 record against the Eastern Conference which was nowhere near as deep and strong as the Western Conference.

Next up for the Hornets is a Saturday matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) who begin the weekend atop the Northwest Division by the slimmest of margins.

The king and his court

So what's more surprising, New Orleans' 7-0 start or the Heat scuffling along at 5-4 despite their wealth of talent?

Miami players might say it's their own struggles since they've seen firsthand that the Hornets are serious. New Orleans took down LeBron James and his pals about a week ago, 96-93, with the Heat 6½-point road chalk. That loss snapped a four-game winning run, SU & ATS, and Miami heads into this weekend on a four-game slide versus the number after dropping their second game of the season to the Celtics on Thursday. Boston built an early lead as 7½-point underdogs before cruising to the 112-107 win.

Miami entered the campaign with a big target on its back, and that has certainly played into some of the losses on the court as well as the 4-5 record at the window. The Heat do have an easier five-game string on their upcoming schedule with games against the Raptors, Suns, Bobcats, Grizzlies and Pacers. First up is a Saturday date in Miami against Toronto with the homestand continuing next Wednesday and Friday versus Phoenix and Charlotte respectively.

Comedy Central (Division)

There's parity, and then there's parody. The Central Division seems to be a bit of both.

The only thing in this group that we've learned is that the Detroit Pistons are bad and appear to be the only team incapable of winning the division title. At 2-6, at least the Pistons are finding ways to help their backers with a 5-3 spread mark.

Chicago enters the weekend as the only squad in the group above .500. The Bulls are 4-3, SU & ATS, and have a Saturday tilt on their own court against the Washington Wizards. Indiana (3-3, 3-3), Cleveland (4-4, 4-4) and Milwaukee (4-5, 5-4) fill in between Chicago at the top and Detroit on bottom.

NBA betting totals just about level

Forget following either just the 'over' or just the 'under' to date. Totals through the first 230 games have gone 117-113 for the low side. Five of the 30 teams have split their marks 50-50 in the early going.

The best bet for 'over' backers has been the Oklahoma City Thunder who are 6-1 to the high side. It's not because of Kevin Durant finding the net a lot, as you might think. Oklahoma City is 22nd in the NBA in scoring defense at 103.9 points per game.

New Orleans has provided the most green for 'under' bettors with a 6-1 record. The Hornets rank first in scoring defense at 90.1 PPG. In case you were wondering, the Hornets and Thunder don't face each other until the end of this month in New Orleans (Nov. 29).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2010, 12:44 PM

Redskins, Eagles in Monday Night Football betting rematch

Most Hollywood sequels never live up to the original productions. The reverse might be the case in Monday night's Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins matchup, a sequel that could become the show everyone expected the time around.

Philadelphia hosted Washington on Oct. 3 as a 5 ½-point favorite in a hyped clash that featured Donovan McNabb's first game in Philly since his offseason trade to the Redskins. McNabb was triumphant in his return, 17-12, but the game really lost a lot of its sheen when Eagles QB Michael Vick left the game early with rib and chest injuries.

Vick is healthy now, and it's McNabb who is hurting with hamstring trouble plus a bit of a bruised ego after being benched in Washington's most recent game. That puts the spotlight back on the two quarterbacks once again which always makes for good NFL theater. The game is also critical to the NFC East race where Philadelphia (5-3) enters the weekend trailing the 6-2 New York Giants by a game with the 4-4 Redskins just a game behind the Eagles.

Monday's line has been very static, opening and remaining at minus three on the Eagles. The total has inched up a point at most shops from the start, with 5Dimes running at 42 ½ as of Saturday and pricing both sides of the 'over/under' at minus 110.

Assuming the line closes where it's at, it will be the fifth consecutive week the 'Skins have been three-point underdogs on the NFL betting card.

Washington has had two weeks to recover from its 37-25 loss on Halloween in Detroit. The Redskins twice had five-point leads in the fourth quarter only to see Matthew Stafford rally the Lions with a pair of short TD passes to Calvin Johnson. A Ndamukong Suh fumble return with a minute and a half left sealed the win for Detroit.

Suh's fumble return occurred on the first snap Rex Grossman took in place of McNabb. Washington head coach Mike Shanahan made the call to go with Grossman over McNabb late in the game with the Redskins trailing by six.

The Eagles are coming off a 26-24 win at home over the Colts, just missing the cover for their backers as three-point favorites. Philadelphia built an early 13-0 lead and relied on four David Akers field goals to keep Indianapolis at bay. Vick completed 17 of his 29 tosses for 218 yards, anMonday Night Footbald combined with halfback LeSean McCoy for 169 yards on the ground to help keep Peyton Manning and the Colts offense off the field more.

The Redskins will be looking for their first regular season sweep of the Eagles since 2005. Washington's victory in Philadelphia six weeks ago left the two division rivals even in their last 10 meetings, five wins apiece. The Redskins have won four of the last five versus the number, however, and six of the last eight.

Eagles-Redskins games have gone 'under' the total 10 of the last 14 matchups, and seven of the last nine played in DC.

The Redskins next travel to Tennessee to meet the Titans next Sunday (Nov. 21) while the Eagles will be at home for a big Sunday night game against the New York Giants.

Current weather forecasts call for a partly cloudy day in the DC area on Monday with a 20 percent chance of rain. Expect the thermometer to be in the mid-to-upper 50s for the kickoff.

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The Bum's Sunday's Best Bets NCAAB-NBA-CFL-NHL !

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