The Bum's BEST BETS Week # 10 NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/11 - 11/15)

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Stafford will not play at Buffalo


DETROIT LIONS (2-6)
at BUFFALO BILLS (0-8)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Buffalo -3, Total: 42.5

Reports out of Detroit speculate that QB Matthew Stafford might be out for the remainder of the season after separating his throwing shoulder in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to the Jets. Stafford separated the same shoulder in Week 1 and missed the next five games. No. 2 quarterback Shaun Hill is still recovering from a broken arm and might not be ready to start on Sunday. That would leave Drew Stanton, who replaced Stafford last week, as Sunday’s starter.

******* take:
Stanton is a serious downgrade from Hill. In his four-year NFL career, Stanton is 55-for-104 for 611 yards, 2 TD, 7 INT and four fumbles. That equals a QB rating of 49.0. In five starts this season, Hill threw for 244 YPG, 9 TD and 6 INT.

The Bills’ secondary has played pretty well recently, allowing just 177 passing YPG over their past five contests. Buffalo might have a couple of wins if not for eight turnovers in the past three weeks, all three-point losses. The Bills are 2-0-1 ATS over this span.

These teams have only met twice since the turn of the century, with each squad winning on their home turf. The FoxSheets give two more reasons why host Buffalo will get its first win of the season.

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. (80-42 since 1983.) (65.6%, +33.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Any team (BUFFALO) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. (78-42 since 1983.) (65%, +31.8 units. Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend favors the Under.

BUFFALO is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.The average score was BUFFALO 12.6, OPPONENT 15.5 - (Rating = 3*).

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Falcons host Ravens in Thursday Night NFL betting special

Ready for some Thursday night NFL? It’s back this week starting with Baltimore meeting Atlanta at 5:20 p.m. PT on the NFL Channel.

The host Falcons are minus one at the NFL betting window with the ‘over/under’ at 43.

Could this actually be a Super Bowl preview? Both teams are 6-2. Atlanta is leading the NFC South Division while the Ravens are tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North.

Baltimore is for real. The Ravens proved that last season upsetting New England on the road in the playoffs. Baltimore is 18-6-2 ATS when getting between one and three points.

The Ravens aren’t flashy, but they don’t have any real weakness. They are physical – although less intimidating on the road – can rush the passer with Terrell Suggs and are balanced offensively with the running/receiving of Ray Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco.

This matchup really is a true test to see how real Atlanta is. The Falcons failed to beat another tough AFC North team on the road opening week, losing to Pittsburgh in overtime when the Steelers were forced to start Dennis Dixon at QB.

The Falcons have since won six of seven going 4-3 ATS. They have been extremely tough in the Georgia Dome winning 17 of 20 times there under Mike Smith. Matt Ryan is 17-1 at home as Atlanta’s starting quarterback.

This is Baltimore’s first dome game this season. The Ravens, though, are battle-tested having played road games against the New York Jets, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and New England. They won and covered against the Jets and Steelers, but lost to the Bengals in Week 2 and fell to the Patriots, 23-20, getting a push on the spread.

The Ravens are off an impressive 26-10 home victory against Miami, covering as five-point favorites. The combined 36 points went ‘under’ the 40 ½-point total.

Flacco had one of his stronger games completing 20-of-27 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns against Miami’s youthful secondary. The Georgia Dome will be a tough road venue for Flacco, who has been much better at home. He has thrown eight touchdown passes and no interceptions at home this season compared to a 4/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road.

Rice and Willis McGee provide Flacco with two decent all-purpose backs. Rice has a combined 842 rushing and receiving yards, but has only two touchdowns. Anquan Boldin heads a veteran receiving corps that includes Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and recently-returned Donte Stallworth.

Atlanta nearly blew a 14-point lead this past Sunday in beating Tampa Bay, 27-21, as 10-point home favorites. The combined 48 points went ‘over’ the 44 ½-point total. The Falcons needed a late goal line stand to hold off the upstart Buccaneers.

The Falcons had problems on special teams containing Michael Spurlock, who had four returns for 209 yards, including an 89-yard kickoff return.

Ryan was 24-for-36 for 235 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. Roddy White, who entered the game leading the league in receptions, caught a season-low four passes for 49 yards. He missed some of the game with a mild knee injury, but said he would definitely play against the Ravens.

Star running back Michael Turner is coming on for Atlanta scoring four of his five touchdowns during the past two games.

The Falcons have scored 66 points in their last two games, but in their previous three games averaged 17.6 points.

“Our offense still is a work in progress,” Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez said. “We’re not where we want to be.”

Atlanta has covered eight of its last 10 times following a non-spread cover. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.

The ‘under’ is 9-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 11 road contests.

The teams last met in 2006 with Baltimore winning 24-10 at home.

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Banged-up Colts look to beat up Bengals

Things aren't exactly looking promising right now for either the Indianapolis Colts or the Cincinnati Bengals. Obviously the Bengals, at 2-6, are in significantly more dire shape than the 5-3 Colts, but neither team has to be happy with the way they are playing, especially since they have both already lost as many games this year as they did in all of 2009.

However, someone is going to take a step in the right direction this weekend, as the two meet in NFL betting action at Lucas Oil Field.

Cincinnati likely had its own funeral on Monday Night Football last week, as it was beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-21, which probably eliminated any chance of making the playoffs. However, we did see the Tennessee Titans come back from an 0-6 start to the season to challenge for the postseason, something that head coach Marvin Lewis, who is firmly sitting on a very hot seat, will be telling his team.

Don't blame either QB Carson Palmer or WR Terrell Owens for the lousy record this year. These two are the only reason that the Bengals really have much of anything this year offensively and are why they rank No. 6 in the NFL in passing.

Palmer, who has taken every single snap this year for his team, is completing 59.7 percent of his passes for 2,103 yards with 14 scores on the year. Owens, who is most definitely having a resurgent season, has 55 catches for 770 yards and a team high seven TDs. Outside of Owens, the rest of the team has only accounted for 10 scores on offense.

Part of the problem on the other side of the ball is that there is just no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. There are only seven sacks to speak of for the entire season for the Cincinnati defense, the second-lowest mark in the NFL, trailing just the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

If you give QB Peyton Manning all day to throw the football, it doesn't matter who he has out there at wide receiver. That's a good thing this week as well. Manning is inevitably at practice this week handing out nametags to all of his receivers. Austin Collie suffered a concussion last week and is unlikely to be able to give it a go this weekend, while Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark are already on IR.

Tight End Jacob Tamme has put together a fantastic pair of games since Clark was knocked out for the year. He has 17 catches for 172 yards and two scores in just two starts this year.

On the ground, both Mike Hart and Joseph Addai are unlikely to play due to injuries, which would only leave Donald Brown and Javarris James, the cousin of former Colts back Edgerrin James, to carry the rock for the second straight week.

The last time the Bengals paid a visit to Indy, they were absolutely whacked, 35-3. They haven't covered the NFL odds in this series since a 28-21 loss in 2002, which marks the only cover since 1997. That year's 28-13 victory marked the last time Cincinnati won a game against the Colts. Indianapolis owns a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS record since that point.

Cincinnati is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games against AFC foes and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 overall. Indy, on the other hand, is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against teams with a losing record and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 against the AFC.

Pinnacle Sports has the hosts favored by a touchdown on Sunday afternoon, while the 'total' has been locked in at 47.

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Dolphins, Titans in tight NFL spread clash

The top 11 AFC teams reached the halfway point of the season divided by just two games in the standings and packed between 6-2 and 4-4 records. Two of those will meet in Miami on Sunday when the Dolphins and Tennessee Titans get together.

While it may be still too early to suggest must-win for any contest in such a close race, it's exactly these games that come back to mean something later when playoff slots are decided by tiebreakers.

NFL oddsmakers see the Tennessee, Miami matchup as very representative of the parity in the AFC, shifting the line a point to both sides of a pick 'em in early action. Midday Tuesday found both Bodog and 5Dimes listing the Titans as 1½-point favorites with most shops offshore going with 42½ for the 'over/under.'

The Titans and Dolphins, just a game apart in the fight for AFC positioning, own identical 5-3 records against the spread. They've each been solid on the road, with Tennessee 3-1 SU on the road and Miami 4-1, a trend that would seemingly point in the Titans' favor with the Dolphins winless in three previous home tilts.

One more thing in Tennessee's favor is the ability to score. The Titans rank first in the AFC in scoring average, 28.0 per game to New England's 27.4 mark. Miami sits last in that column, 17.9.

Tennessee comes out of its bye week and off a loss in San Diego two weeks ago, 33-25. The Titans, 6-point underdogs at close, let a 19-7 lead in the second quarter evaporate when the Bolts scored 17 unanswered points to take a 24-19 lead into the final 15 minutes.

Jeff Fisher's guys played fairly mistake-free football with no turnovers and no sacks allowed. Ten flags and a 4-for-13 performance on third down proved costly in the loss that halted three-game streaks both SU and ATS.

Miami suffered a 26-10 setback last Sunday in Baltimore. The Dolphins went to the locker room trailing by just three, 13-10, but never could move the ball in the second half against the tough Ravens defense. Chad Henne was picked off three times and Baltimore ruled the clock by about 17 minutes.

Five-point underdogs in the contest, the loss stopped a three-game winning stretch for Miami at the window.

This will be the ninth meeting between the old AFL rivals since the Titans moved to Tennessee following the 1996 season. Miami has won five of the last eight with the clubs splitting versus the betting line.

Tennessee's 27-24 win at home last season (Dec. 20, 2009) stopped a three-game losing skid for the Titans in the series. Miami covered the 5-point underdog spread, and the 'over' 43 snapped a four-game run by the 'under' between the two clubs.

CBS has the telecast from Sun Life Stadium starting at 10 a.m. PT. Long-range weather forecasts point to good weather with just a 10 percent chance of rain. Sunday's high in Miami is expected to be 80ºF.

Week 11 will find the Titans home for a battle with the Redskins. Miami will host the Chicago Bears in a Thursday night NFL special (Nov. 18, 5:20 p.m. PT).

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/08/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/07/10 11-8-1 57.89% +1100 Detail
11/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
Totals 12-11-1 52.17% -50

Thursday, November 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 8:20 PM ET Atlanta -1 500
Atlanta - Over 43.5 500

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NFL odds stacked against Dallas at Giants

So much for the Dallas Cowboys being the first team to play in a Super Bowl on there own field.

At least Wade Phillips has left the building. Being the most disappointing team in football at 1-7 will get you fired.

Things certainly aren’t looking up either for interim coach Jason Garrett as Dallas takes on the NFC-East leading New York Giants, the hottest team in the NFL with five straight victories and a 6-2 record.

Game time Sunday is 1:15 p.m. at the Giants’ $16 billion New Meadowlands Stadium.

Just three weeks ago, Dallas hosted the Giants and was 3 ½-point favorites. The Giants built a 38-20 lead and coasted to a 41-35 victory knocking out Tony Romo. The combined 76 points sailed ‘over’ the 45-point total.

Now the Giants have been bet up to 14-point home favorites, a swing of 17 ½ points from the first meeting. The ‘over/under’ is 45.

NFL oddsmakers opened the Giants as low as 10-point favorites, but early money has poured in against the Cowboys.

It’s easy to see why.

Dallas hasn’t started this bad since 1989. The Cowboys have surrendered 232 points, the most they’ve allowed through eight games in 21 years. Dallas has given up an average of 40.3 points in its last three games, its worst stretch since its expansion season of 1960. All together, the Cowboys rank second-from-the-bottom in scoring defense yielding 29 points per game.

The Giants are a complete contrast. They are averaging 36 points in their last four games, their highest four-game average since 1966. The Giants rank No. 2 in total offense averaging 401 yards per contest and are fourth in scoring putting up 27 points per game.

Eli Manning has completed 46-of-67 passes in his last two games for 596 yards and seven touchdowns. He threw four touchdown passes against Dallas in the first meeting.

Sparked by Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants rank third in the league in rushing. Dallas, on the other hand, is 31st in rushing. Bradshaw is the third-leading rusher in the NFL with 765 yards.

Dallas fell apart in Jon Kitna’s second start since replacing Romo, who suffered a broken collarbone when sacked by linebacker Michael Boley, losing 45-7 to Green Bay as eight-point road ‘dogs this past Sunday night. The combined 52 points went ‘over’ the 46-point total.

Kitna has a two-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio filling in for Romo. The Cowboys have failed to adequately pass block or develop a run game to relieve the pressure on the 38-year-old quarterback.

Romo was the fifth quarterback the Giants have knocked out this season. The Giants are 22-9 ATS following a victory, but have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 home contests.

Jumping off to a fast start is nothing new for the Giants under Tom Coughlin. They’ve been 6-2 or better after eight games in five of his seven seasons, going 5-3 during the other two years.

However, the Giants have gone just 21-27 under Coughlin during the second half of the season.

The ‘over’ has cashed in Dallas’ last five games. The ‘over’ has cashed in the Giants’ last seven NFC East games. The ‘over’ also has cashed 14 of the last 17 times the Giants have met an NFC foe. The ‘over’ has been a winner, too, during four of the last five meetings in the series.

The Cowboys won’t have defensive end Marcus Spears, who suffered a season-ending calf injury against the Packers. They may be without linebacker Anthony Spencer (hand), too.

The weather forecast is for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 50s

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Browns host Jets in NFL betting showdown

The New York Jets are finding ways to win as they get ready for a Sunday afternoon showdown at the Cleveland Browns.

Bookmaker.com has the Jets as three-point road favorites (minus 125) with a total of just 37 ½-points. Cleveland is plus 160 to win outright as a home ‘dog for the second week in a row.

New York (6-2 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread) is coming off a 23-20 OT win at Detroit after trailing 20-10 in the fourth. The Jets deserve credit as every NFL win is tough, but they also got a break when Detroit coach Jim Schwartz passed on third down inside of two-minutes in regulation. The incompletion gave the Jets more time for the game-tying field goal.

New York got shutout (9-0) at home by Green Bay in its prior contest, but also got lucky in an Oct. 17 win (24-20) at Denver. The Jets scored a come-from-behind touchdown with 1:13 left, directly aided by a questionable pass interference call.

Coach Rex Ryan needs his team to get on top early and not rely on miracle comebacks. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has plenty of weapons with receiver Santonio Holmes back along with Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and tight end Dustin Keller. Holmes had 114 receiving yards last week, including a 52-yard catch-and-run in overtime.

Running back LaDainian Tomlinson continues to prove his critics wrong, who thought he was washed up. Tomlinson and Shonn Greene form the league’s fourth-ranked rushing attack (148 YPG).

The Jets ‘D’ has been very good as expected at sixth in the league in total yards allowed (307.1 YPG) and third in points (16.3 PPG). However, the coaching staff seems to rely too much on its greatness, playing too conservative on offense. That can be a recipe for disaster.

New York is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road. The failure to ‘cover’ was as 5 ½-point favorites at Detroit. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in road games.

The Browns (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won and ‘covered’ their last two games. The first was a 30-17 win at New Orleans, with linebacker David Bowens having an incredible game with two interceptions for touchdowns.

New England was last week’s opponent after the bye-week and Cleveland had arguably its best game of the year (34-14 win). The Browns dominated time of possession (38-22 minutes) and rushing yards (230-68). The Jets owe Cleveland a huge thank you as they’re now tied with New England for first place in the AFC East.

Coach Eric Mangini was surely feeling sky-high after the game, beating his former mentor and current adversary Bill Belichick. Mangini needs more wins to keep his job with team president Mike Holmgren dropping not-so-subtle hints about returning to coaching.

Running back Peyton Hillis bulldozed his way through the Patriots defense for 184 yards. New England eventually had to cheat up to try to stop the run, making quarterback Colt McCoy dangerous with the play-action-pass.

McCoy was 14-of-19 for 174 yards and has an 83.5 quarterback rating in three starts. Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are both still dealing with ankle sprains, but McCoy will start regardless.

Cleveland would love to employ the same run-first strategy against New York. However, the Jets run defense is ranked fourth (87.4 YPG) and no running back has gone over 100 against them.

That means more chances down the field for McCoy, which could be dangerous with well-below average receivers. New York has arguably the NFL’s best corners and Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will look to pick-off the rookie.

Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog (2-1 ATS this year). The ‘over’ is 5-1 in its last six games overall.

New York and Cleveland last met in 2008, with the road team 4-1 SU and ATS since 2002. Browns’ offensive tackle John St. Clair could return this week (ankle). The Jets are not reporting any significant injuries.

Kickoff from Cleveland Browns Stadium will be 10:00 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather should in the 40s with possible showers.

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Home dogs of +3.5 or more paying off


Earlier in the season, we made several mentions of the strong performances by home underdogs. This week, we’re taking a look at a subset of these that shows a high rate of success.
Through Week 9, there have been 18 games in which the home team has been more than a field goal underdog in the final line. In these games, home teams are a solid 12-6 ATS (67%), 9-9 SU. In all but one of these games, the home team received just 30% of the action or less. The most recent successful example occurred last Sunday when Cleveland trounced New England 34-14 as a four-point underdog. The Browns attracted a mere 16% of the wagering activity.

In Week 9, keep an eye on Cleveland again as it may end up getting more than a field goal at home against the New York Jets. Also track the line in the Philadelphia vs. Washington tilt in D.C., where the Redskins may end up greater than +3 underdogs. The FoxSheets show some additional support for the Browns and Redskins, respectively:

Play Against - Road favorites (NY Jets) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. (28-8 since 1983.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Underdogs or pick (Washington) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in the second half of the season. (24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*).

On the other end of the spectrum, there have been 12 games in which the home team has been favored by 10 points or more at kickoff. We first looked at this two weeks ago after New Orleans failed to cover a double-digit number for the second time of the season. In Week 9, Atlanta was unable to cover the 10-point spread against Tampa Bay in a 27-21 SU win. That brings the season totals for these heavy home favorites to just 4-8 ATS (33%). All but one of these favorites have managed to win the game outright, with the Saints’ loss to the Browns the lone blemish.

This week, the New York Giants are in the spotlight as a two-touchdown home favorite over woeful Dallas, who will try to make Jason Garrett a winner in his head-coaching debut. Despite their horrid performance to date, the FoxSheets show more stars for the Cowboys than there are players on the 53-man roster who wear stars on their helmets. Here is just a sampling:

Play On - Road teams (Dallas) - off a road loss, in November games. (41-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On - Any team (Dallas) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. (50-20 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.4%, +28 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Home favorites (NY Giants) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in November games. (49-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Losers of five straight SU, Dallas will try to continue the undefeated ATS record this season for teams who have lost five or more consecutive games SU. Buffalo (twice), Carolina and San Francisco have all beaten the spread in these situations already this year. Cincinnati, also losers of five straight SU, faces a tough task at Indianapolis off of a short week of preparation.

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NFL Week 10 betting analysis

The Steelers and Patriots renew their bitter rivalry on Sunday with both teams looking to stake a claim as top dog in the AFC.

New England certainly didn’t look like potential conference champions last week, getting stomped by the Browns, and there’s little reason to believe they will do any better on Sunday Night Football. Pittsburgh receiver Mike Wallace is developing a good partnership with Ben Roethlisberger and I like the duo to devour the Patriots’ pitiful secondary. Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers as 4½-point favorites and win big with Sports Interaction.

Big Blue welcomes Big D to New Meadowlands Stadium on Sunday when the Giants take on the Cowboys. Dallas dispensed with the services of Wade Phillips on Monday, with Jason Garrett taking over head coaching duties until the end of the season. Given Garrett’s role in Dallas’ troubles, it’s hard to see the team improving under his stewardship.

That’s bad news for Cowboys fans this Sunday because the Giants are currently playing like Super Bowl contenders. With Jon Kitna still under center for Dallas, I expect the Giants’ defense to have a big day in this NFC East battle. New York should win, and win big. Bet on the New York Giants as 14-point favorites with Sports Interaction.

The Vikings are clinging desperately to their playoff hopes. Minnesota would get a massive boost with a win in Chicago on Sunday. The Bears have raced to a 5-3 record but look fragile. Most of those wins have come against the NFL’s also-rans and injuries could become an issue soon. Chicago’s offensive line has allowed Jay Cutler, and his backup, Todd Collins, to get beaten up too often by opposing defenses. The Vikings haven’t scared many quarterbacks in 2010 but they will fancy their chances of giving Cutler a few licks.

This game will be physical and I like Minnesota to come out on top in an ugly battle that should have little in the way of good offense. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings as 1-point favorites and win big with Sports Interaction.

Monday Night Football gives Michael Vick and the Eagles a chance to build on last week’s huge win over the Colts. This week Philadelphia hit the road to take on the Redskins. Washington have proven to be one of the toughest teams to read in the NFL. At times they are tenacious while at others they appear to lack any sense of hunger.

The recent spat between Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan doesn’t inspire confidence. I like the Eagles to record a big road win on Monday. Bet on the Philadelphia Eagles as 3-point favorites with Sports Interaction.

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Sunday night NFL betting matchup pits Steelers and Patriots

The Pittsburgh Steelers have played three straight road games, escaping with two wins and a 1-2 spread record. Mike Tomlin’s squad returns home for Sunday night’s clash with the New England Patriots, who are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games.

Sports books opened Pittsburgh as a four-point favorite, with early wagers moving the number north one point to five. NFL betting shops set the ‘total’ at 45, the highest for a Steelers’ matchup this season.

Pittsburgh survived last Monday’s matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-21, as a five-point road favorite. The Steelers allowed two unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter after leading, 27-7.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 17-of-27 passes for 163 yards. The 28-year-old notched one touchdown, hitting wide receiver Hines Ward for an eight-yard strike.

Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall logged 22 carries for a team-high 99 rushing yards. The three-year running back took in a one-yard touchdown during the first quarter, giving the Steelers a 7-0 lead.

The Steelers’ defense allowed 359 yards, with 218 coming through the air. Linebacker LaMarr Woodley recorded two of Pittsburgh’s four sacks, while mate Lawrence Timmons grabbed his second interception of the season.

The battle’s combined 48 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 41 ½. Steelers wide out Antwaan Randle El threw a 39-yard touchdown to Mike Wallace during an end-around handoff for the team’s final score.

Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in its three home dates, with the ‘under’ also going 2-1. Woodley and Co. have allowed a stingy 12 PPG in that span.

New England ended a five-game win streak with last Sunday’s 34-14 defeat as a four-point road favorite against the Cleveland Browns. The Patriots trailed for the entire contest, equaling their lowest scoring effort of the season.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady connected on 19-of-36 passes for 224 yards. The five-time Pro Bowl selection threw two touchdowns to tight end Aaron Hernandez, who finished with a team-high 48 receiving yards.

New England’s Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis logged nine carries each, uniting for 68 rushing yards. The duo’s offense notched 19 first downs during its 22 minutes of possession.

The Patriots’ defense gave up 404 yards without logging an interception or sack. Linebacker Jerod Mayo notched a team-high seven tackles.

Mayo and Co. allowed a late 35-yard touchdown dash from Cleveland’s Peyton Hills with 2:38 remaining, lifting the game’s 48 combined points ‘over’ the ‘total’ of 44. The Browns also reached the end zone on 3-of-4 trips inside the Patriots’ 20-yard line.

New England’s setback dropped Bill Belichick’s crew to 2-2 ATS in its four road games, with the ‘over’ improving to 3-1.

The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings against Pittsburgh, with the ‘over’ cashing at 6-3.

The Steelers won the most recent meeting between the foes, 33-10, as one-point road dogs in a 2008 trip to Gillette Stadium. New England committed five turnovers and allowed five sacks, while Roethlisberger logged 179 passing yards and two touchdowns for Pittsburgh.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 5:20 p.m. (PT), with NBC providing the national television coverage.

The weather forecast in Pittsburgh calls for a 60-degree night, with calm winds and a 30 percent chance of showers.

Both squads have home games slated for next Sunday's league card. New England meets the Indianapolis Colts, while Pittsburgh hosts the Oakland Raiders.

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Browns host Jets in NFL betting showdown

The New York Jets are finding ways to win as they get ready for a Sunday afternoon showdown at the Cleveland Browns.

Bookmaker.com has the Jets as three-point road favorites (minus 125) with a total of just 37 ½-points. Cleveland is plus 160 to win outright as a home ‘dog for the second week in a row.

New York (6-2 straight-up, 5-3 against the spread) is coming off a 23-20 OT win at Detroit after trailing 20-10 in the fourth. The Jets deserve credit as every NFL win is tough, but they also got a break when Detroit coach Jim Schwartz passed on third down inside of two-minutes in regulation. The incompletion gave the Jets more time for the game-tying field goal.

New York got shutout (9-0) at home by Green Bay in its prior contest, but also got lucky in an Oct. 17 win (24-20) at Denver. The Jets scored a come-from-behind touchdown with 1:13 left, directly aided by a questionable pass interference call.

Coach Rex Ryan needs his team to get on top early and not rely on miracle comebacks. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has plenty of weapons with receiver Santonio Holmes back along with Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and tight end Dustin Keller. Holmes had 114 receiving yards last week, including a 52-yard catch-and-run in overtime.

Running back LaDainian Tomlinson continues to prove his critics wrong, who thought he was washed up. Tomlinson and Shonn Greene form the league’s fourth-ranked rushing attack (148 YPG).

The Jets ‘D’ has been very good as expected at sixth in the league in total yards allowed (307.1 YPG) and third in points (16.3 PPG). However, the coaching staff seems to rely too much on its greatness, playing too conservative on offense. That can be a recipe for disaster.

New York is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road. The failure to ‘cover’ was as 5 ½-point favorites at Detroit. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in road games.

The Browns (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won and ‘covered’ their last two games. The first was a 30-17 win at New Orleans, with linebacker David Bowens having an incredible game with two interceptions for touchdowns.

New England was last week’s opponent after the bye-week and Cleveland had arguably its best game of the year (34-14 win). The Browns dominated time of possession (38-22 minutes) and rushing yards (230-68). The Jets owe Cleveland a huge thank you as they’re now tied with New England for first place in the AFC East.

Coach Eric Mangini was surely feeling sky-high after the game, beating his former mentor and current adversary Bill Belichick. Mangini needs more wins to keep his job with team president Mike Holmgren dropping not-so-subtle hints about returning to coaching.

Running back Peyton Hillis bulldozed his way through the Patriots defense for 184 yards. New England eventually had to cheat up to try to stop the run, making quarterback Colt McCoy dangerous with the play-action-pass.

McCoy was 14-of-19 for 174 yards and has an 83.5 quarterback rating in three starts. Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are both still dealing with ankle sprains, but McCoy will start regardless.

Cleveland would love to employ the same run-first strategy against New York. However, the Jets run defense is ranked fourth (87.4 YPG) and no running back has gone over 100 against them.

That means more chances down the field for McCoy, which could be dangerous with well-below average receivers. New York has arguably the NFL’s best corners and Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie will look to pick-off the rookie.

Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog (2-1 ATS this year). The ‘over’ is 5-1 in its last six games overall.

New York and Cleveland last met in 2008, with the road team 4-1 SU and ATS since 2002. Browns’ offensive tackle John St. Clair could return this week (ankle). The Jets are not reporting any significant injuries.

Kickoff from Cleveland Browns Stadium will be 10:00 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather should in the 40s with possible showers.

[jt4545]

Thanks and good luck

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
November 11, 2010


Ravens at Falcons - The Ravens are 0-11 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since October 19, 2003 on the road the week after a straight up win in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Ravens are 0-9 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since November 8, 2009 when they held the ball for at least 32 minutes last game. The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when they scored less than expected and allowed at least 21 points last game. The Falcons are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since September 26, 2004 when they won with a total of 44.5 or above. The League is 0-7-3 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since November 09, 2008 within 3 of pick at home versus any team with the same record, after playing at home. The Falcons are 7-0 OU (21.0 ppg) since October 14, 2001 within 3 of pick at home after playing as a favorite.

Vikings at Bears - The Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since September 29, 1996 on the road after a win at home in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Vikings are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 13, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road after playing at home as a TD+ favorite. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 16, 2001 as a road favorite when they lost their last two road games. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week. The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since September 23, 2007 within 3 of pick after a straight up win as a favorite. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since October 30, 1994 as a road favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a favorite. The Vikings are 7-0 OU (16.9 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a road favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.

Lions at Bills - The Lions are 0-10-2 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since September 24, 2006 when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Bills are 10-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since October 09, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Bills are 7-0-2 ATS (6.4 ppg) since December 05, 2004 the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 9-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since November 04, 2007 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Lions are 7-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since December 10, 2006 after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Bills are 8-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 25, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.

Chiefs at Broncos - The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since December 15, 1996 the week after a straight up loss on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2006 on the road after playing on the road. The Broncos are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since October 04, 1992 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Chiefs are 0-7 OU (-6.7 ppg) since October 16, 1997 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.

Jets at Browns - The League is 8-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since December 23, 2007 within 3 of pick on the road when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The League is 0-10-1 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since September 28, 2008 within 3 of pick at home when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since September 17, 2000 as a dog the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when they punted three or fewer punts last week. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since September 23, 2007 the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 0-8 OU (-9.2 ppg) since October 02, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks. The Browns are 0-8 OU (-13.1 ppg) since September 18, 1994 within 3 of pick at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Browns are 6-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since November 07, 1999 as a home dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.

Panthers at Buccaneers - The Panthers are 7-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since November 18, 2001 as a 7+ dog the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 17, 1995 when they lost by 21+ points last week against a divisional opponent. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 23, 1997 on the road when they got swept last week as a dog. The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since December 08, 2008 when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since December 21, 2008 at home after a straight up loss. The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-10.9 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a 7+ dog after a straight up loss as a dog. The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU (-10.8 ppg) since November 13, 2006 vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Buccaneers are 0-7 OU (-7.7 ppg) since October 25, 2009 after a straight up loss.

Seahawks at Cardinals - The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-15.9 ppg) since December 28, 2008 after playing at home. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since December 21, 2002 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 28, 2008 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Seahawks are 0-7 OU (-7.6 ppg) since October 15, 1989 as a road dog the week after a straight up loss at home in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Cardinals are 9-0-1 OU (6.5 ppg) since December 26, 2004 when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record.

Bengals at Colts - The Bengals are 0-9-1 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 4, 2007 when they trailed at the half against a divisional opponent last game. The Bengals are 0-9 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 29, 1992 as a 7+ dog the week after in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Bengals are 0-8-1 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since October 30, 2005 after playing the Steelers. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-8.6 ppg) since December 29, 2002 as a 7+ dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 8-0 OU (18.5 ppg) since November 15, 1992 as a favorite the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Colts are 0-8 OU (-10.2 ppg) since September 13, 1992 after their opponent played the Steelers.

Titans at Dolphins - The Titans are 7-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Dolphins are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 16, 1992 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks. The Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS (15.7 ppg) since October 30, 2005 when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 0-7 OU (-9.0 ppg) since November 25, 2007 within 3 of pick on the road versus any team with fewer wins. The Dolphins are 9-0 OU (8.7 ppg) since December 02, 2007 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road. The Dolphins are 8-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since October 24, 2004 as a home dog after a straight up loss on the road as a dog..

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Rams at 49ers - The Rams are 10-0-1 ATS (7.4 ppg) since October 8, 2006 after a win against a non-divisional team. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-15.8 ppg) since December 30, 2007 on the road vs a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 0-12 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 27, 2003 when they had at least four sacks last game in a win. The Rams are 8-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since December 27, 1998 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The 49ers are 10-0-1 OU (10.9 ppg) since December 03, 2000 the week after their bye. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-6.4 ppg) since December 21, 2008 vs a divisional opponent.

Cowboys at Giants - The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since October 14, 2007 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since November 22, 2001 after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog.The Giants are 11-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 06, 2005 the week after a straight up win in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 0-7 ATS (-16.3 ppg) since December 17, 2006 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The League is 12-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since September 21, 2008 as a road 7+ dog after playing on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (12.9 ppg) since September 15, 2003 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (8.0 ppg) since October 01, 1989 as a dog when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. The Giants are 9-0 OU (8.0 ppg) since November 25, 2007 as a 7+ favorite after a straight up win. The Giants are 8-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since October 21, 2007 when they won by 21+ points last week.

Texans at Jaguars - The Texans are 8-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since October 26, 2003 as a road dog the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Texans are 0-6 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since October 10, 2004 when they are 500 after playing at home. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since September 28, 2003 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 7-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when their dps was negative in their last two games.

Patriots at Steelers - The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since October 22, 2000 on the road when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATS (5.2 ppg) since October 25, 1992 as a dog after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since September 11, 2000 as a road dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (12.9 ppg) since November 12, 1995 as a dog when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.

Eagles at Redskins - The Eagles are 9-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since November 10, 1991 within 3 of pick on the road the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since November 25, 2002 on the road when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since September 15, 1997 on the road vs a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. The Redskins are 0-9 ATS (-16.0 ppg) since September 14, 1998 at home on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are 0-11-1 OU (-11.8 ppg) since October 02, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Eagles are 0-7 OU (-9.5 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average. The Redskins are 0-8-2 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 01, 1998 as a home dog vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Money Moves
November 11, 2010

The marquee NFL matchup of Week 10 is the Sunday night game between a pair of 6-2 teams with the Patriots traveling to Pittsburgh. Outside of the Thursday’s affair between two other 6-2 teams (Atlanta and Baltimore), there aren’t any other games that pit two teams with winning records against each other. Over the last two weeks we have started to see some of the favorites bounce back and take control after seven weeks of the barking ‘dogs. Because of those favorites last week, the small bettor finally had a winning day in the NFL.
Could this be another week, with more of the favorites getting there again? Between the Sunday and Monday games, we have only one game with a spread higher than 10, three games at 6 of higher and eight others that are 1 to 4 ½. At this juncture, when we’re starting to see the cream rise to the top a little more, those eight small favorites could present great value. The oddsmakers are still in the respect mode because of what some of these teams have done earlier this year, but recent revelations should speak louder.

Take the Vikings being only 1-point favorites at Chicago this week. The Bears rating has obviously slid dramatically since starting the year 3-0, but the line seems to indicate that they are much better than the team that lost back-to-back home games to Seattle and Washington. The Vikings seem to be on an upswing as the team rallies against their coach Brad Childress, as ridiculous as that may sound.

Jacksonville is another value play laying only 1 ½-points at home against the Texans after opening -1. Between quarterback David Garrard coming off a career day at Dallas and the always dangerous running back Maurice Jones-Drew, they should post up huge numbers against the league’s worst defense. And you’re laying less than a field goal at home?

We’ve seen this before out of the Texans, who just three weeks ago were looking like viable candidates to take over their division. After losing two straight to the Colts and Chargers, we’re left with the same inconsistent Texans as we had last year, and basically, coach Gary Kubiak’s entire career at Houston. Last season at the same juncture, Houston was in the midst of a four-game losing streak. It's a different Texans philosophy now with running back Arian Foster being the game plan, but it's still the same mediocre results. The two teams are going in opposite directions, yet have the same record.

Another short favorite to look at is the Titans laying 2-points at Miami. Chad Pennington gets the start at quarterback over Chad Henne, but Las Vegas Sports Consultants Senior Oddsmaker Mike Seba doesn’t necessarily agree that it’s a move for the better.

“Henne was struggling, but he’s still worth about 3-points more than Pennington,“ said Seba. ”I can’t even imagine what Pennington is going to do. It’s clearly a desperate move by Tony Sporano and the Dolphins who have yet to win at home playing in a tough division. The major difference between the two is Henne is much more mobile and has been in tune to live game action all season.”

The Dolphins opened as a pick’em, but has moved to the Titans favored because of the perception of Pennington. The early line last Sunday at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book had the Dolphins -2 ½.

How about the Buffalo Bills, who opened as 2-point home favorites to the Lions and now sit at -2 ½ after a brief stop at -3 (+105). No QB Matt Stafford this week for Detroit as Shaun Hill will take over again.

“Shaun Hill played well while in relief for Matt Stafford this year,” said Seba, “but he’s still 3-points less in the rating differential. The Bills have been competitive and deserve to be favored this week. This may be their best opportunity to win a game.”

The Arizona Cardinals have been a tough team to get a read on. They have virtually no offense, yet seem to get all the bounces on special teams and defense where they have five touchdowns in their first eight games. The Seahawks have been equally befuddling, but are at least consistent with bad play on the road having put in their best, and only, effort at Chicago.

“Matt Hasselbeck is worth 3-points in the rating differential from Charlie Whitehurst, but that’s with a banged up, not even 90% Hasselbeck,” said Seba, “He’d be much more of a difference maker if 100%. If it were Whitehurst again the week, Arizona would be a 6-point favorite easy, maybe higher.”

The Chiefs have been moved from a pick’em at Denver to 1-point favorites, probably because the Broncos defense is beaten consistently by just about everyone. Throw in a good running game and the Broncos appear to have no shot at all.

One of the only small favorites that doesn’t appear to have any value is the Eagles laying -3 (-125) at Washington on Monday Night Football, down from the opener of Eagles -3 ½.

Of the larger favorites, one game sticks out to both Seba and me, with Tampa Bay laying only 6 ½-points to the decimated Panthers, who will start Jimmy Clausen at quarterback and Mike Goodson at running back.

“We sent Buccaneers -7 ½, and I made my individual line higher at -8 ½,” said Seba. “ I don’t really understand the Panthers move down to 6 ½. Maybe it’s just Tama Bay, who have tended to play close games and haven’t won large in a any game this year and Carolina having a decent defense, but when I look at all the problems with Carolina at the skill positions, I would have a hard time backing them.”

The Cowboys found some takers at +14 against the Giants and the game is down to 13 ½. The coaching change in Dallas isn’t likely to make much of a difference in their play. Jason Garrett and the staff that helped shape Wade Phillips’ weak persona is still there and until that culture and attitude is dramatically changed by a complete overhaul, the virus that infests this group of talented players will remain.

College Football Moves of the Week

Clemson opened +7 at Florida State, but is now +5 ½ due FSU QB Christian Ponder being 'questionable' due to a sore elbow.

Georgia opened at +9 ½ at Georgia and has been bet down to +8.

Central Michigan was getting +15 ½ at Navy and it’s down to +14 due to Navy QB Ricky Dobbs being 'doubtful' due to a concussion.

Rice opened +6 at Tulane and has been bet down to +4.

North Carolina was getting +5 at home to Virginia Tech, but it’s down to +3 ½.

Louisville opened 1-point home favorites to South Florida, but have been bet up to -2 ½ despite Cardinals QB Adam Froman 'doubtful.' Star RB Bilal Powell is still 'questionable' for Louisville as well, but even without both last week, they still managed to win quite easily at Syracuse.

Louisiana Tech found bettors for the second consecutive week as Tech opened -13 ½ at NewMexico State and are now -15 ½. Last week the move on Tech was against Fresno State that shifted 6 points with Tech losing.

Tennessee opened 1-point home underdogs against Mississippi, but with Rebels QB Jeremiah Masoli 'questionable' for the game due to a concussion, The Vols are now -2 ½.

Houston opened a short 1-point home favorite against Tulsa and are now -2 ½.

Florida International opened +10 at Troy, but are now +8 ½.

Florida Atlantic opened -6 ½ at home against UL-Lafayette, but the Cajuns will be going with a third-string starting QB this week which bumped the line to -9 ½.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 10
November 11, 2010


BALTIMORE at ATLANTA (Thursday, November 11)... Falcons 8-4 vs. line at home since LY. Ravens "under" 4-0 on road TY and "under" 10-1 last 11 away. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS... Cincy no covers last 5 TY and now 2-6 vs. number last 8 away. Bengals also "over" 8-4 last 12 away. Indy has covered last 5 and 7 of last 8 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the only L the throw-away game vs. Jets late last season. Colts also "over" 10-4 last 14 on board. Tech edge-Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE... Jags won and covered both meetings LY as small underdog. Kubiak, however, is 10-5 his last 15 vs. line on road. Texans also "over" 7-3 last 10 since late LY. Jags "over" 7-2 last 9 since late LY but only 5-15 vs. spread last 20 as host (2-2 TY). Tech edge-"Over" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.

TENNESSEE at MIAMI... Sparano's extended trends at home are poor (4-12 last 16 since mid ‘08). Titans 3-1 vs. line away TY has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY. Dolphins "over" 10-1 last 11 as host. Tech edge-"Over" and Titans, based on "totals" and team trends.

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO... "Overs" 6-2-1 last 9 meetings. Vikes 0-3-1 vs.. Line away TY, also "over" 5-1 last 6 away. Lovie 3-1 as dog TY but "under" 6-2 last 8 at Soldier Field. Tech edge-slight to Bears, based on recent trends.

DETROIT at BUFFALO... Resurgent Lions 7-1 vs. line TY, also "over" 9-3 last 12 since late LY. Bills no covers first 3 at Orchard Park TY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

NY JETS at CLEVELAND... Mangini 9-2-1 vs. line last 12 as dog. Jets are "over" 7-1 last 8 as visitor. Tech edge-Browns and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY... Panthers had won and covered 4 of 5 in series before bowing to Bucs in Week Two. Carolina "under" 17-8 since late ‘08 and "under" 5-1 last 6 TY. Raheem Morris 0-3-1 vs. line as host TY and 1-10-1 vs. number at home since LY. Last 4 "under" in series. Tech edge-Panthers and "under," based on Bucs home woes and "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at DENVER... Broncos just 4-14 SU and 5-13 vs. line last 18 since bye week in 2009. Denver no covers last 4 TY and 2-7 vs. number last 9 at Invesco Field. Josh McDaniels "over" 11-2 last 13 since late LY. Five of last six "over" in series. Tech edge-Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO... Rams have covered 6 of last 7 TY an are 5-1 last 6 as dog. Rams "under" 6-2 TY and 9-2 since late LY. Singletary 9-3-1 vs. line last 13 at Candlestick. "Unders" 7-1 last 8 in series. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Rams, based on "totals" and recent trends.

SEATTLE at ARIZONA... Seahawks now on road, where they are 2-11 SU and vs. line last 13. Arizona had won and covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 in series prior to first meeting. Last six between these two in desert have gone "over" as well. If Cards chalk note 4-9 mark in role since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and Seahawk road trends.

DALLAS at NY GIANTS... Dallas disaster continues, now 1-7 SU and vs. line in 2010. Giants have now won and covered last 3 vs. Dallas since LY, with all "over" as well. Giants "over" 16-7 since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and Giants, based on "totals" and team trends.

NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH... Dating back to ‘01 AFC title game, these two "over" in 6 of last 7 meetings. Steel "over" 51-28 last 79 at Heinz Field though trend not as pronounced for Tomlin (16-14). Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (Monday. November 15)... Skins have covered 4 of last 5 in series. Andy Reid "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Tech edge-slight to Skinsand "over," based on recent series and "totals" trends.