Announcement

**Udog** · 11-09-2010, 01:16 PM

NFL opening line report: Week 10

Parity. You hear about it constantly in NFL conversation. It’s part of the “any given Sunday” mystique, that every team has a realistic shot at victory each and every time it takes the field.

You may cringe each time you hear it, but you’d better get used to it.

Last week, the Cleveland Browns stunned the New England Patriots 34-14 as 4-point underdogs. The Patriots were on top of every NFL power rankings list you could find before that game. Meanwhile, underdogs were over .500 again last week while the Detroit Lions improved to 7-1 against the spread despite being favored only once this season.

But even with that type of run against the number, Chuck Esposito, race and sports executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino, says the public is still wary about teams like the Lions.

“Yes, the public is starting to back the Browns a little, but the jury is still out on the Lions as the money went against both of those teams this week,” Esposito told cov.com Monday.

He added the same thing is true with the Oakland Raiders, who were a perennial NFL doormat before they erased a 1-3 start by winning four of their last five games, culminating with Sunday’s 23-20 overtime win over Kansas City as 1-point underdogs. That win improved the Raiders to 6-3 against the spread this season as the club heads into its bye week.

Things are slowly starting to shift as these teams continue to improve. However, if you’re looking to place some underdog bets, there are a lot of tight lines with upset potential this week.

The Browns opened as 3-point underdogs at home to the New York Jets, while the Detroit Lions started out as 3-point pups on the road against Buffalo. Meanwhile, out of the 13 lines currently on the board, only four of them check in at more than a field goal.

Talk about parity.

Biggest spread of the week: Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8.5)

Esposito has had these Carolina Panthers pegged for weeks now. They were smoked again last week, this time by the Saints, and now sit just 2-6 against the spread.

“Again this gets back to the fact that the Panthers have all kinds of trouble scoring,” Esposito says. “They also have running back injuries and will be starting rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen. The betting public remembers the last game teams played so look for this number to go up.”

Smallest spread of the week:

There are a handful of 1-point lines littering the board right now, including Baltimore at Atlanta (-1), Tennessee at Miami (+1), Minnesota at Chicago (+1), Houston at Jacksonville (-1) and Kansas City at Denver (+1). Esposito highlights two of these to keep a close eye on.

The Ravens-Falcons matchup is a tricky with it going on Thursday and he says “it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Ravens go off favored” despite how well Atlanta plays at home.

With everything that is going on with the Vikings, Esposito adds it’s hard to know what to do with their lines, but does feel Minnesota will still be favored Sunday after their big comeback win over the Cardinals.

Biggest total of the week: Houston at Jacksonville (-1, 50)

Same story as the past few weeks: Houston’s offense keeps driving totals up. The Texans have seen six totals of 45.5 or higher so far this season and have still played over five times, including last week’s 29-23 loss to San Diego.

Esposito notes that neither of these teams play any defense (Houston sits last in total defense while Jacksonville checks in at No. 28) and that both 4-4 clubs desperately need this game. That means they’ll stick with what they know – offense.

Smallest total of the week: New York Jets at Cleveland (+3, 38)

The Jets have had some problems on offense over the past couple weeks, narrowly escaping from Detroit with a 23-20 overtime win in Week 9 after being blanked by the Packers in Week 8.

Meanwhile, Eric Mangini’s Browns just stomped his former team, New England, and now has a date with the other team he used to work for in the Jets. Keep in mind that while Cleveland is still only 3-5 straight up, the club has wins over New England and New Orleans on its resume while going 4-4 against the spread.

Trickiest line of the week: Dallas at New York Giants (-13.5, 44.5)

This game has more storylines than a Jersey Shore marathon. You have Dallas’ struggles that led to the coaching change, the Tony Romo injury, the rivalry between the two clubs and New York’s recent surge.

“It’s hard to believe that these two teams played two weeks ago and the Cowboys were a 3.5-point favorite and now they are almost a two-touchdown underdog,” Esposito says. “I guess the real question is whether the Cowboys are this bad and are the Giants this good. I still think this number comes down as week get closer to the weekend.”

Other available lines:

Seattle at Arizona (-3, 41)
St. Louis at San Francisco (-6, 38.5)
Philadelphia at Washington (+3, 41.5)

**Udog** · 11-09-2010, 01:17 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 11

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BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at ATLANTA (6 - 2) - 11/11/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, November 14

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CINCINNATI (2 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 4) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 4) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 3) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 6) at BUFFALO (0 - 8) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (6 - 2) at CLEVELAND (3 - 5) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 3) - 11/14/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) at DENVER (2 - 6) - 11/14/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (4 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) - 11/14/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (4 - 4) at ARIZONA (3 - 5) - 11/14/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (1 - 7) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/14/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) - 11/14/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 81-52 ATS (+23.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 41-20 ATS (+19.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-45 ATS (+25.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 15

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 4) - 11/15/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 138-97 ATS (+31.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-28 ATS (+20.2 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-09-2010, 01:18 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, 11/11/2010

BALTIMORE at ATLANTA, 8:20 PM ET NFL
BALTIMORE: 8-1 ATS as road dog of 3 pts or less
ATLANTA: 6-19 ATS at home off BB SU wins

Sunday, 11/14/2010

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 9-16 ATS on turf
INDIANAPOLIS: 4-0 ATS off an Over

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 28-13 ATS off BB SU Losses
JACKSONVILLE: 2-12 ATS as a favorite

TENNESSEE at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 6-0 Over at Miami
MIAMI: 9-25 ATS after 2 game road trip

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 4-14 ATS Away off win by 3pts or less
CHICAGO: 11-2 Under as an underdog

DETROIT at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 12-4 Over off ATS win
BUFFALO: 7-1 ATS off loss by 6pts or less

NY JETS at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 6-0 Over after allowing 99 or less rushing yards BB games
CLEVELAND: 10-2 ATS off ATS win

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 6-1 ATS off loss by 28+ points
TAMPA BAY: 6-1 Under off BB ATS wins

KANSAS CITY at DENVER, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 32-16 ATS at home off SU loss
DENVER: 0-7 ATS at home vs. division

ST LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 3-11 ATS vs. division
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 Under vs. division

SEATTLE at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 1-6 ATS off loss by 28+ points
ARIZONA: 9-2 ATS playing with revenge

DALLAS at NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 28-13 ATS off loss by 14+ points
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over off win by 21+ points

NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NEW ENGLAND: 5-1 Over off outright loss by 14+ points as favorite
PITTSBURGH: 6-2 Over in Weeks 10 through 13

Monday, 11/15/2010

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
PHILADELPHIA: 30-12 ATS revenging loss by 7 pts or less
WASHINGTON: 9-2 Under at home if total is 35.5 and 42

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-09-2010, 01:19 PM

NFL

Week 10

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 11

8:20 PM
BALTIMORE vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

Sunday, November 14

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Houston

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Cleveland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Dallas

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games at home

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Monday, November 15

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Washington is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Philadelphia

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**Udog** · 11-11-2010, 10:25 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Baltimore at Atlanta
The Ravens look to build on their 2-0-2 ATS record over their last 4 games as an underdog from 1 to 3 points. Baltimore is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 105-106: Baltimore at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.982; Atlanta 135.915
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 215-216: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.215; Indianapolis 139.920
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7); Over

Game 217-218: Houston at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.484; Jacksonville 125.825
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2); Under

Game 219-220: Tennessee at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 138.060; Miami 134.875
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-1); Over

Game 221-222: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 132.096; Chicago 131.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 36
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Detroit at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 122.528; Buffalo 127.571
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-2 1/2); Over

Game 225-226: NY Jets at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.230; Cleveland 128.538
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 6 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3); Under

Game 227-228: Carolina at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 123.818; Tampa Bay 128.771
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 40
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Over

Game 229-230: Kansas City at Denver (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 131.330; Denver 128.342
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 40
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 43
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Under

Game 231-232: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.581; San Francisco 130.887
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6); Over

Game 233-234: Seattle at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.565; Arizona 126.992
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 31 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

Game 235-236: Dallas at NY Giants (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 124.175; NY Giants 141.379
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 17; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 13 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-13 1/2); Under

Game 237-238: New England at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.819; Pittsburgh 139.927
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4 1/2); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 15

Game 239-240: Philadelphia at Washington (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.246; Washington 135.888
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

**Udog** · 11-11-2010, 10:27 AM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 10 games
Ravens (6-2) @ Falcons (6-2)— Baltimore won five of last six games; Atlanta won six of last seven. Ravens are 2-2 on road (underdog 3-0-1 vs. spread) with all five games decided by 5 or less points, and average total of 29.5. Falcons are 4-0 at home (2-2 as home favorite), winning by 34-2-7-6 points. Atlanta was held to 58-65 rushing yards in its two losses; four of eight Baltimore foes have run ball for at least 117 yards. Ravens are +7 in turnovers last three games. Atlanta is 9-2-1 in last 12 games as favorite of 3 or less points. NFC South home teams are 4-6-2 vs. spread in non-divisional games; AFC North road teams are 5-4-2. All four Baltimore road games stayed under total; last three Atlanta games went over.

Bengals (2-6) @ Colts (5-3)—Short work week, short (2-hour) road trip for Cincy squad that’s lost its last five games, allowing average of 27 ppg. Indy won last six series games by average score of 35-19; Bengals’ last series was in ’97. Colts are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 24-10-13 points Cincy is 1-3 on road in ’10, 0-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-3-7 points (only win was in rain at Carolina)- they allowed 10-7 points in their only two wins. Since 2001, Colts are just 15-23 vs. spread in game following a loss, but they’re 2-0 in that role this year. In their last three games, Cincy opponents started eight of 35 drives in Bengal territory. Four of last five Bengal games went over total.

Texans (4-4) @ Jaguars (4-4)—Texans allowed 31 ppg in last four games, have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they don’t. Houston lost last three visits here by 37-17/30-27ot/23-18 scores, as home side won five of last six series games, with average total of 54.0. Texans lost three of last four games and trailed by 10 with 5:00 left in game they won- they’re 2-1 on road, with average total in those three games, 53.0. Houston is 8-4 in last 12 games as underdog of 3 or less points. Jags have only played two games decided by less than 10 points. Home favorites in divisional games are 6-14 vs spread in NFL this year. This is first time since Week 1 that Jacksonville is favored.

Jets (6-2) @ Browns (3-5)—Mangini faces his old team week after he beat mentor Belichick; he has few former Jets on his team now. Rex Ryan’s brother is Browns’ DC. Jets are 4-0 on road, with last two wins coming in dramatic fashion late in game. Red flag for Jets—no takeaways in last two games (-5 TO’s, still +5 for season). Browns beat Saints/Pats in last two games after 1-5 start; they’re 4-2-1 vs. spread as underdog this year. Since 2007, Browns are 10-6 as a home dog. Cleveland won three of four series games, with all four games decided by 7 or less points. Six of last seven Jet games, five of last six Cleveland games went over total. League-wide, home dogs are 13-10-3 vs. spread in non-divisional games.

Titans (5-3) @ Dolphins (5-3)—Moss makes Tennessee debut for team that scored 31.5 ppg in last four games (3-1), but is missing top WR Britt (hamstring). Titans are 3-1 on road this year, losing only at San Diego after Britt/Young both got hurt- they’re 22-12-1 vs. spread in last 35 road games. Miami is woeful 16-41 vs spread in last 57 home games; they’re 0-3 at home this year, losing by 8-27-1 point, allowing 31.7 ppg. Tennessee scored 29+ points in all five wins; they’re 0-3 if they score less than 29. Miami has only five takeaways in last five games (-7), giving up three defensive TDs and a kick return for TD. Four of last five Titan games went over total; three of last four Miami games stayed under. Pennington getting first start of year for Miami.

Vikings (3-5) @ Bears (5-3)—Home side won six of last seven series games; Vikings are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing in OT LY (last win here, 34-31 in ’07). Average total in last four series games, 62.3. Minnesota is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 5-9-4-10 points, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three away games (gave up seven TDs on 18 drives in last two). Both teams have already played five games decided by 5 or less points. Underdog is 6-1-1 vs. spread in Chicago games this year; Bears lost last two home games (Seattle/Redskins)- they’re 5-1 if they score 19+ points. Home teams are 16-21-1 vs. spread (23-15 SU) in divisional games so far this season. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under total; last five Minnesota games went over.

Lions (2-6) @ Bills (0-8)—Detroit QB Stafford is out (shoulder); looks like 2nd-stringer Hill will get nod for improving Lion squad that lost last 24 road games SU but is 7-1 vs spread this year overall, covering last five games. Lions are 3-1 as road dog this year- they scored 44-37 points in their wins, scored 20+ in four of six losses. Winless Buffalo is favored after losing last three games by FG each; they’ve converted 32 of last 56 on 3rd down (57.1%), but turned ball over eight times (-5) in those games. Bills are 4-7 vs. spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Home team won last four series games, with Lions losing last two visits here, 22-13/24-17. Last five Detroit games went over the total. Lions were only team to lose to 1-15 Rams LY.

Panthers (1-7) @ Buccaneers (5-3)—NFC South home teams are 0-6 vs spread (2-4 SU) in divisional games this year. Carolina won six of last seven visits here, in series where road team is 8-4 in last 12 meetings. Tampa Bay (+3) won first meeting 20-7 in Charlotte back in Week 2, with three takeaways (+3) and four sacks. Panther QB Moore (shoulder) is out for year, so up to rookies Clausen/Pike to move ball enough to win battle for field position (-19/-8 in last two games). Bucs are 5-3 despite being dog in six of eight games; they’re 0-1-1 as favorite in ’10, winning those two games by 1-3 points- the win at Carolina is their only win this year by more than a FG. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (5-3) @ Broncos (2-6)—Chiefs’ 44-24 win here LY ended 0-8 skid at Invesco, in series where home side is still 12-3. KC is 1-3 on road, losing last three- their last two games both went OT. Four of their last seven games overall were decided by four or less points. Broncos lost last five games, allowing 34.5 ppg in last four; since starting LY 6-0, Denver is now 4-16 in last 20 games- they’ve given up 17 TDs on 45 drives over last four games, and allowed 14+ second half points in six of last seven games. Chiefs are 1-3 if they allow more than 14 points; they had 228+ rushing yards in three of last four games. This is just second time since 2007 that Chiefs are road favorite. Over is 6-2 in Denver games, 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four contests.

Cowboys (1-7) @ Giants (6-2)—Woeful Dallas changed head coaches Monday; it means they’ve got new defensive guru but same offensive one, as Garrett is interim coach. Problem is, they’ve got same ragtag OL protecting 38-year old Kitna. Cowboys lost last five games, giving up 41-35-45 points in last three (!4 TDs on last 35 drives)- they’re 1-2 as road dog this year, with road losses by 6-3-38 points. Giants (+3) outrushed Pokes 200-35 three weeks ago in 41-35 road win; they’ve won five games in row (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 36 ppg in last four wins. Methodical Giants ran ball for 167-200-197 yards in last three games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread in last eight tries as double digit favorite. Last five Dallas games, last three Giant tilts all stayed under total.

Rams (4-4) @ 49ers (2-6)—Niners are 8-2 in last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but don’t see gritty Rams (6-1-1 vs. spread, only one loss by more than 4 points) as 6-point dog to disappointing 49er squad that’s using former 3rd-stringer Smith as starting QB. (Rams have three LBs who are former Buckeyes, just like Smith). SF is 2-6 despite being favored in six of first eight games; they’re 1-2 at home (only win 17-9 vs. Raiders), 2-4 vs. spread as favorite. Rams held four of last five opponents under 90 yards rushing, but Bradford still looking for first road win (0-3, scored 14-6-17 points (four TDs on 30 drives)). Lions are only team this season to score more than 17 points against the Rams. Six of eight St Louis games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (4-4) @ Cardinals (3-5)—Seattle got outscored 74-10 in last two games, as numerous roster moves have failed to patch holes on both lines. Seahawks lost last four visits to desert, by 6-3-13-11 points, with average total in those games, 49.3. Arizona (+7) lost 22-10 at Seattle three weeks ago, turning ball over five times, completing just 12-33 passes, converting 2 of 12 on 3rd down. Seahawks are 1-3 on road under Carroll, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 17-17-30 points (won 23-20 at Chicago). Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, giving up 29 ppg; they’re 0-2-1 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home (all three games went over). Only once in last seven games have Cardinals averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.

Patriots (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2)-- No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.

Eagles (5-3) @ Redskins (4-4)—McNabb won 17-12 in his return to Philly (+5) in Week 4, but completed just 8-19 passes in doing so (Skins ran ball for 169 yards); now, after he got benched at end of loss in their last game, questions have arisen as to how much faith Team Shanahan has in #5. Vick got hurt in first meeting, now he’s healthy; Eagles are 3-1 on road, scoring 27.3 ppg and they had 4th quarter lead in game they lost. Philly won eight of last ten visits here- they’re 2-3 as favorite this year. Redskins are 1-2 at home, with all three games decided by three points. Shanahan is 7-1 in last eight post-bye games, but Redskins are 1-4 vs. spread in last five as post-bye underdog. Last four Eagle games all went over the total.

**Udog** · 11-11-2010, 10:30 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 11

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons [NFL NETWORK | 8:20 PM ET]

RAVENS: It's been quite some time since Baltimore has been tested on the road. The Ravens have only played 1 road game since October 3rd. The Ravens are 6-2 SU this year, with both losses coming on the road. Baltimore is 4-3-1 ATS this season, including 2-1-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens are 2-0-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season, a role in which they've relish. QB Joe Flacco will look to get the best of a friendly rivalry with Matt Ryan, as both were drafted in the same class. Flacco has thrown for more than 1,900 YDS this season with 12 TD's. Baltimore is averaging 21.9 PPG this season, thanks to a balanced offense. With a short week to prepare against an elite offense, the proud Ravens defense is going to have their work cut out. Baltimore is allowing just 17.4 PPG this season, 6th best in the league. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Ravens are 18-6-2 ATS last 26 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - S Tom Zbikowski (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24

FALCONS: (-1, O/U 43) Atlanta will be putting their unbeaten home winning streak on the line tonight, as they battle one of the Super Bowl favorites. Atlanta is 6-2 SU this year, including 4-0 SU at home. QB Matt Ryan is 17-1 SU lifetime at home, a clear indication this team plays with a great deal of confidence at home. The Falcons are just 2-2 ATS at home this year, with all but 1 of those games coming as a single digit favorite. This will be the 3rd consecutive home game for Atlanta, an added benefit considering the short week. Atlanta is averaging 24.5 PPG this year, while only giving up 19.3 PPG defensively. Ryan has thrown for nearly 1,950 YDS this year, including 13 TD's. The Falcons are also averaging 136.5 rushing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. The Falcons are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Falcons are 8-2 ATS last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning record.

Key Injuries - WR Roddy White (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 11-11-2010, 10:34 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 11

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Thursday Night Football: Ravens at Falcons
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Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 43.5)

The Ravens head to Atlanta Thursday night for a showdown between two top-tier Super Bowl contenders. The Falcons are +1,000 and the Ravens +700 to win the Super Bowl, according to Bodog.com’s current futures odds.

Baltimore (6-2, 4-3-1 ATS) arrives having won two straight with a bye week sandwiched in between victories over Miami and Buffalo. Last week’s 26-10 win over the Dolphins was perhaps the Ravens’ most complete game of the season.

Running back Ray Rice got untracked with 180 total yards, allowing Baltimore to control the football. The Ravens owned a ridiculous 17-minute advantage in time of possession and limited Miami to only 53 plays.

The Falcons (6-2, 6-2 ATS) weren’t quite as sharp in their win over Tampa Bay last week. They allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown and needed late goal-line stand to put away the scrappy Bucs.

Star wide out Roddy White sustained what he called a bruised knee and left the game momentarily. He would return but sat out practice Monday and Tuesday. White told reporters Tuesday that he would play against the Ravens.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 17-1 at home and will be facing a fellow third-year QB in Baltimore’s Joe Flacco.

The two teams have not met since 2006, a 24-10 Ravens’ win in Atlanta.

The line

The old Las Vegas oddsmaker joke about having to make someone the favorite so the squares know who to bet on seems to apply here. The Falcons opened as 1-point favorites at most outlets. The number had not budged as of Wednesday afternoon.

When facing a team with comparable talent, playing on the road hasn’t affected the Ravens much. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of three points or less. In addition, the Falcons’ home-field advantage has not helped against quality teams that play well on the road, like the Ravens. Atlanta is 8-19-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning record on the road.

The total

The total opened up at 43.5, with a random 44 out there on Wednesday.

The Falcons score 24.5 and allow 19.2 points per game. The Ravens score 21.9 and allow 17.4 points per game.

The under is 9-1-1 in the Ravens last 11 road games and 13-6-1 overall in their last 20 games.

Injury report

The Falcons are a banged-up football team with two starters, center Todd McClure and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, in addition to White missing practice time this week. Starting linebacker Curtis Lofton, No. 4 receiver Brian Finneran and key reserve running back Jason Snelling were limited in practice this week.

McClure, White, Lofton, Finneran and Snelling are going to play, but Weatherspoon is listed as day-to-day.

In contrast, Baltimore is relatively healthy. Safety Tom Zbikowski and defensive tackle Arthur Jones missed Tuesday’s practice. Zbikowski has missed the past two games with a bruised right heel.

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**Udog** · 11-12-2010, 10:04 AM

NFL

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 10
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Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-3)

Why Lions cover: Buffalo will be without second leading receiver and top punt returner Roscoe Parrish as well as linebacker Andra Davis who is out for the year with a shoulder injury.

Why Bills cover: Their last three games have all been narrow losses. Shaun Hill will quarterback the Lions in Matthew Stafford's absence and does so coming off a fractured forearm.

Total (43): The over is 5-0 in the Lions' last five games.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3)

Why Jets cover: They have won seven consecutive road games straight up. Their running game could be problematic for Cleveland's 22nd ranked defense.

Why Browns cover: They are coming off huge upsets of the Saints and Patriots. Colt McCoy is completing 67.6 percent of his passes and Peyton Hillis has been punishing opponents on the ground.

Total (37.5): The over is 5-0 in the Jets' last five road games and 5-1 in the Browns' last six games overall.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Why Panthers cover: They're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 meetings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in Tampa Bay.

Why Buccaneers cover: With Matt Moore injured again, either Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike will quarterback the Panthers. Mike Goodson will start at running back with both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart out.

Total (36.5): The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tampa Bay.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Why Bengals cover: Indianapolis still has multiple injuries on both side of the ball. Wideout Terrell Owens has been a huge part of the Bengals’ offense over the last five games (618 yards, seven touchdowns).

Why Colts cover: The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Indianapolis.

Total (47): The over is 5-1 in the Bengals' last six road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1)

Why Titans cover: Randy Moss' presence should make it easier for Chris Johnson to run. Their opportunistic defense should prove troublesome for a Miami team that is prone to turning over the ball.

Why Dolphins cover: Vince Young is still battling an ankle injury and has barely practiced the past couple of weeks. Chad Pennington will replace Chad Henne at quarterback to try and jumpstart the offense.

Total (43): The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Miami.

Minnesota at Chicago (+1)

Why Vikings cover: They have the defensive front to put pressure on Jay Cutler who often holds onto the ball too long or forces it into double coverage.

Why Bears cover: The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Chicago. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Total (41): The over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

Why Texans cover: They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two sides.

Why Jaguars cover: They have won three consecutive home games straight up against Houston and quarterback David Garrard is 5-2 straight up against them in his career. Matt Schaub is dealing with a rib injury.

Total (50): The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Jacksonville.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+1)

Why Chiefs cover: Their potent rushing attack should have no problem with a Broncos defense that is allowing 154.6 yards per game on the ground.

Why Broncos cover: They are 15-6 straight up coming off a bye week.

Total (42.5): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Why Rams cover: Their revamped defense is often overlooked due to Sam Bradford's impressive rookie season. They have the NFC's fourth best defense and are holding opponents 97.8 rushing yards and 17.6 points per game.

Why 49ers cover: The Rams are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five contests in San Francisco.

Total (38): The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-2 in the last seven games in San Francisco.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Why Seahawks cover: Matt Hasselbeck is over his concussion and will start at quarterback this week.

Why Cardinals cover: The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Cards and 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Arizona. The home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Total (41): The over is 9-4 in the last 13 games between these two teams and 6-0 in the last six in Arizona.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-13.5)

Why Cowboys cover: Highly-respected Jason Garrett finally gets to show what he can do as the head coach of an NFL team. DeMarcus Ware has eight sacks in his last seven games against New York.

Why Giants cover: The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the G-Men and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games visiting the Giants.

Total (45.5): The over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 3-0-1 in the last four games in New York.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Why Patriots cover: They're 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Steelers and 5-1 ATS in their last six at Pittsburgh. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS.

Why Steelers cover: Without Randy Moss, Tom Brady's completion percentage has dropped almost 12 points and his quarterback rating has plummeted 25 points. He is also getting sacked more due to teams stacking the line of scrimmage.

Total (45): The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3)

Why Eagles cover: They're 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Washington. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Why Redskins cover: Donovan McNabb beat his old in Week 4 at Philadelphia as 5-point underdogs and will be even more motivated now that his current coach is questioning his conditioning and play calling.

Total (42.5): The under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings and 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings in Washington.

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**Udog** · 11-14-2010, 12:36 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 14

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NFL Week 10 weather report: Cold, wet weekend
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Weather could impact the outcome some of Week 10’s NFL games. Don’t get left out in the cold - or the rain and snow – when it comes to placing your wagers. Here’s a look at this Sunday’s forecast:

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-1, 45)

The weather at Ralph Wilson Stadium could match the talent on the field – lousy. The forecast in upstate New York is calling for rain and wind when the Lions visit in Week 10. Temperatures will dip in the low 50s while a medium-to-strong breeze blows at South, Southwest from corner to corner.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3, 37.5)

Morning showers will give way to cloudy skies by the time this game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. There could be a strong-to-medium wind ripping though Cleveland, dropping temperatures into the low 50s.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+1, 40.5)

When you get as old as Brett Favre, you can just feel the weather in your knees. No. 4’s aching joints are calling for a strong wind, getting up to around 18 mph which will make it feel like 37 degrees in Soldier Field. And you thought the Vikes' locker room was a chilly place.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 45)

Heinz Field, widely known as the worst field in football will get a solid soaking Sunday before the Pats and Steelers kick off for primetime. Rain is expected to hit Pittsburgh early in the morning and pour into the afternoon before yielding around 6 p.m. ET. Adding to the slick footing, temperatures will fall into the high 40s as Sunday night’s game goes on.

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**Udog** · 11-14-2010, 12:43 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 14

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Sunday Night Football: Patriots at Steelers
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New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 45)

On their way to a heavyweight fight, the New England Patriots were flattened by a lightweight.

Now, the Patriots must regroup from a lopsided loss as they travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a clash of two teams tied for the lead in their respective divisions.

Odds

This spread opened as low as -4 in favor of Pittsburgh and was bet up to -5 as money came in on the home side. The total, which opened as low as 44.5, has seen minor movement to 45.5 but has settled at 45 at most markets.

Brown out

Last week's stunning 34-14 loss at the Cleveland Browns took a bit of luster off the much-anticipated matchup between Pittsburgh and New England.

Still, it shapes up as one of the marquee games of the season between two franchises who have won five of the past nine Super Bowls and are once again tied for the best record in the AFC with 6-2 marks.

The Patriots were riding a five-game winning streak into Cleveland but were ambushed by the Browns behind a career-high 184 rushing yards from Peyton Hillis.

Rookie quarterback Colt McCoy completed 14 of 19 passes against New England's struggling defense as Cleveland controlled the ball for over 38 minutes.

Steeling points

Despite their 6-2 record, the Patriots have held just two opponents under 20 points this season and are in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories.

That could bode well for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has guided the Steelers to a 3-1 record since returning from a four-game suspension to start the season.

Roethlisberger played exceptionally well in his first two games back, throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. He has leveled off since, throwing for under 200 yards in each of the last two games with one scoring pass and two picks.

Pittsburgh built a 20-point lead before holding off a furious rally and needing a big defensive stop in the final seconds to preserve a 27-21 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and speedster Mike Wallace had five receptions for 110 yards, including a 39-yard scoring pass. Wallace is averaging an NFL-high 23.0 yards per reception.

Pitt stop

Defensively, Pittsburgh is again among the league leaders, ranking first in points allowed per game (15.4) and yards rushing per game (58.3).

The Steelers are vulnerable to the pass, though, ranking 24th in the league, and that’s likely the area Tom Brady and the Patriots will try to exploit.

Brady has had great success against Pittsburgh in his career, going 5-1 and averaging over 300 yards passing per game. He was 19 of 36 for 224 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s defeat.

New England’s scoring production has dipped markedly since wide receiver Randy Moss was traded. In four games with Moss, the Patriots piled up 131 points; in the four games without him, they have managed just 88.

Wes Welker has a team-high 44 receptions but has struggled since Moss’ departure. Rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez has helped pick up the slack with 36 receptions, including five for 48 yards and his first two career touchdowns last week.

Weather

The forecast is calling for partially cloudy skies in Pittsburgh, following morning showers, Sunday night. Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 50s with a light wind blowing West, Southwest from sideline to sideline.

Trends

- Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- New England is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
- Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Patriots’ last eight games in November.
- Over is 48-22-3 in Steelers’ last 73 games as a home favorite.

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**Udog** · 11-14-2010, 10:49 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 14

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Tips and Trends
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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

TITANS: (-1, O/U 43) Tennessee has made headlines with the addition of WR Randy Moss. The Titans are 5-3 SU this season, with each loss being a 1 possession loss. With the addition of Moss, this Titans offense becomes that much more dynamic. Tennessee is 3-2 ATS as the listed favorite this season. RB Chris Johnson is hoping that teams will start to respect their passing game, which would open up some holes for him. Johnson has rushed for 721 YDS and 8 TD's this season. When WR Kenny Britt gets healthy, this offense will be filled with game breakers. The Titans are only allowing opponents to score 18.8 PPG this year, 9th best in the NFL. Tennessee has 13 INT's this year, 3rd best in the league. This will be the 4th time in 5 games that the Titans have played on the road. The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Titans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Titans are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games played on grass.

Key Injuries - QB Vince Young (achilles) is probable.

Projected Score: 24

DOLPHINS: Miami has made a QB switch today, as they are going to QB Chad Pennington. Pennington is a great presence and overall leader of a team, that simply won't beat himself. One can imagine that the Dolphins will look to run the ball even more, and to focus on the short passing game as a result. The Dolphins are 0-3 SU on the road this year, so the pressure is mounting on them to get it done. Miami is 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS overall this season. The Dolphins are scoring just 17.9 PPG this season, 5th worst in the NFL. Miami has only played 1 home game since October 4th, so the fans will be excited for tonight's contest. Miami lost last year to the Titans in OT, so revenge is on their minds. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in November.

Dolphins are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as an underdog.
Over is 10-4 last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DB Reshad Jones (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 17

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers [NBC | 8:30 PM ET]

PATRIOTS: New England is coming off their worst performance of the season, a classic example of looking ahead. Certainly the Patriots took the Browns for granted, and they paid the price. Despite that loss, New England is still 6-2 SU. The Patriots are 4-3-1 ATS on the year, including 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. New England has played 2 games as the listed underdog this year, and won ultimately won each game SU. The Patriots are also playing on the road for the 2nd consecutive week, the first time that's happened this season. New England is averaging 27.4 PPG this season, 2nd best in the NFL. QB Tom Brady is the unquestioned leader of this offense. Brady has thrown for more than 1,800 YDS and 14 TD's this season. Where the Patriots struggle the most is on defense. New England is allowing opponents 23.5 PPG and 386.5 YPG this season. This will only be the 3rd time in 6 seasons that these two proud franchises have met. The Patriots are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. New England is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. New England is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November.

Patriots are 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - S Patrick Chung (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24

STEELERS: (-4.5, O/U 45) Pittsburgh is coming off a Monday Night win on the road in Cincinnati. The Steelers are working on a short week in yet another primetime setting. Pittsburgh has plenty of experience, as this is a veteran team accustomed to the bright lights. The Steelers are 2-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. The Pittsburgh fans will be excited to see their team in action, considering they've been on the road for their past 3 contests. This Steelers offense is starting to heat up as they get all their players accustomed to each other. QB Ben Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 21.8 PPG this year. RB Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for more than 700 YDS and 7 TD's this season. Pittsburgh is allowing an NFL low 15.8 PPG this season. Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU this season, including 2-1 SU at home. The Steelers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 PTS. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. The Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game. Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.

Steelers are 5-2 ATS last 7 games played in November.
Over is 5-2 last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.

Key Injuries - TE Heath Miller (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 11-14-2010, 10:59 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 14

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NFL Total Bias: Week 10 over/under predictions
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I think I’m falling for the Cleveland Browns.

Not falling for them like they’ve tricked me into thinking they’re something that they’re not or anything. I mean I have a full-out team crush on the Brownies.

I mentioned Peyton Hillis in this space awhile back, talking about how he screwed up my over/under wager when he ran wild on the Baltimore Ravens for 180 all-purpose yards in Week 3. That was the beginning of it.

Since then I’ve accepted my team crush on this club – partially because Hillis keeps killing it for my fantasy team, and partially because I have been raking it in betting Browns games (cue kiss of death).

Cleveland has covered in four of its last six, while playing over the total in five of those games. During that stretch the Browns gave Baltimore a major scare, upset Cincinnati, pounded the Saints at the Superdome, and just shellacked the Patriots.

Mind you, the team obviously still has some major flaws. Outside of Peyton Hillis, they don’t have any real playmakers on offense. Josh Cribbs was supposed to have a breakout season as a full-time member of the offense, but hasn’t come through on that – possibly because he’s too busy making cameos on The League and possibly because he just hasn’t had a ton of chances.

As of this writing, the Browns hadn’t formally decided on who their quarterback would be this week even though Colt McCoy has been garnering enough lousy “Real McCoy” headlines lately to put a damper on my Kim Basinger fantasies. Cleveland’s $7-million man Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are both back practicing, leading to speculation that maybe one of those vets might get back on the field.

But I can’t see it. Say what you will about McCoy’s arm strength and size, but the kid knows how to win. He didn’t win 45 games for the Longhorns by accident and I can’t see Eric Mangini taking the ball away from him after the last two victories.

Still, I’m thinking this is going to be the make-or-break weekend for my love affair with the Browns. They surprised a bunch of teams so far, but they aren’t sneaking up on anybody now, especially not the New York Jets.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3, 37.5)

Lots of storylines to go around in this one. We have former-Brown Braylon Edwards returning to Cleveland for a game that he’s dubbing a “personal war” against the entire city, plus all the connections between the two coaching staffs.

It’ll be a serious test for Cleveland, even against a Jets club that needed overtime to put the Detroit Lions away following 9-0 loss to Green Bay in Week 8. Colt McCoy admitted he’s never gone up against a corner like Darrelle Revis before and he’ll have to get something through the air to keep New York from putting eight in the box to stop Hillis.

This total looks low to me. I think we’ll see a bunch of big plays so I’ll hop on the over train again this week.

Pick: Over

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 38.5)

This matchup consists of two of my least favorite teams to watch in the entire league.

To me it breaks down to a couple of workhorse running backs in Steven Jackson and Frank Gore lining up against tough run defenses. I’m still not sure what to think of Troy Smith yet and I’m not crazy about Sam Bradford on the road, where he sports a 68.4 quarterback rating while averaging less than 170 passing yards.

This one’s going to be a grind-it-out, work-the-clock affair.

Pick: Under

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, 49.5)

I’ve had this game circled since the first of the season, but it had nothing to do with handicapping.

I drafted Philip Rivers and then immediately checked out bye week options on the waiver wire. Houston’s terrible defense jumped out at me right away and while I’m not the biggest David Garrard fan out there, he was the guy I ended up picking up earlier this week.

Jacksonville has played over the total in four of its last five, while Houston has topped the total five times despite seeing the highest over/under numbers in the league every week. The only way Jacksonville is going to win this one is to cut it loose against the worst pass defense in the NFL.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record: 12-16

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**Udog** · 11-15-2010, 11:55 AM

NFL

Monday, November 15

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What bettors need to know: Eagles at Redskins
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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3, 42.5)

Current Odds

Oddsmakers opened Philadelphia as a 3-point road favorite last week and the money has come in Philadelphia, pushing the spread to 3.5 in many locations, while others have adjusted the juice only and made the Eagles -3 -125.

The over/under line opened 41.5 and has gone up to 42.5 total points. Both the side and total line moves coincide with the current *********** consensus as 70 percent of the public is favoring the Eagles while 72 percent is on the over.

The weather will be nice on Monday night as the forecast is calling for clear conditions with no wind and a kickoff temperature of 50 degrees.

Injury Report

The Eagles are banged up on defense and will be without two defensive backs. CBs Ellis Hobbs (hip) and Nate Allen (neck) are out this week, while defensive end Victor Abiamiri (knee) was placed on the injured reserve list and will be out for the rest of the season.

Defensive end Juqua Parker (hip) and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley (elbow) are probable and expected to play.

The Eagles are also battling injuries on the offensive line. Center Jamaal Jackson (elbow) remains out for the season and backup center Nick Cole is probable but nursing a sore knee. Offensive guard Max Jean-Gilles (concussion) and tackle King Dunlap (knee) are questionable, while guard Todd Herremans (ankle) is probable and expected to play.

The Redskins had a bye last week, but still have a large injury list. Quarterback Donovan McNabb (hamstring) and running back Ryan Torain are both probable, while running back Clinton Portis (groin) remains doubtful. Tight end Chris Cooley (back) is questionable.

Two key defensive players, safety LaRon Landry (Achilles) and linebacker Brian Orakpo (back), are probable and expected to play tonight.

Chance at Redemption

Washington beat Philadelphia, 17-12, in the first meeting of the season. A big reason for that was the Redskins’ ability to run the ball with great success on the Eagles. They ran for 169 yards and averaged over 5.0 yards per carry.

Following that performance, the Philadelphia defense was verbally chewed out by head coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, and the players are looking forward to atoning for their effort in that game.

”Let’s just say this, man. When we got to that team meeting, it definitely wasn’t a happy moment. You can put it like that,” linebacker Ernie Sims said. “That was an awkward day and I just pray I don't have to go through that again.”

The Eagles have improved their rush defense since. Philly hasn’t allowed an opponent to rush for more than 75 yards in its last four games. During that stretch, they held Frank Gore, Michael Turner and Chris Johnson to a total of 163 yards on 57 carries for an average of 2.9 yards per carry.

No Sliding for Vick

Washington knocked Eagles’ quarterback Michael Vick out for three games with cracked rib cartilage on a hit on the goal line. Vick was scrambling when he took the hit and was sandwiched in between two Redskins. He could have slid but Vick dove instead and ended up getting hurt on the play.

The Eagles coaching staff likes Vick’s aggressiveness and they are fine with him not sliding when he’s in the open field.

“Yeah, Mike doesn’t slide. No, that’s OK,” offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said. “I don’t want to name any names but there are great quarterbacks who never slid. They go head-first and get an underneath hit.”

Mornhinweg said Vick has the discipline in the open field to scramble without being vulnerable to career-threatening hits.

“Sometimes when you have active quarterbacks, it looks like a free-for-all and it’s not,” he said. “It’s very disciplined with the really good ones, and Mike was really disciplined within his movements and all of the decision-making that he made.”

Eagle Says McNabb is Easy

Donovan McNabb was the heart and soul of the Philadelphia offense for years, but one of his former teammates was quick to say that McNabb is “not that difficult a quarterback to play against.”

Eagles Pro Bowl defensive end Trent Cole made that statement in a radio interview this week, and he isn’t taking anything back.

”I didn’t say nothing bad about him,” Cole said. “What I said was what I meant. They asked me if he's a difficult quarterback to go against. I said no, because I don’t think we have a problem with him. We never had a problem with him.”

Based on the first game, it seems as if Cole’s comments are accurate. Despite winning the game, McNabb passed for a season-low 125 yards in his homecoming game in Philadelphia. He completed just eight of his 19 passes while throwing a touchdown and an interception.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (11/11 - 11/15)

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