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might add buffalo, good luck!
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Cinci over Pitt (Possible Upgrade)
Note: I would wait until close to gametime to wager on the Bengals becaus the line will continue to go up.
When a team looks like they are at their worst is the best time to back them (because the public jumps off of them and they now have line value). That is the Cincinnati Bengals right now. The Bengals will be a Monday Night division home dog, which is usually a good play, but the Bengals qualify for even a more specific trend. Monday night divisional home underdogs of less than 7 points with losing records (Cinci) are 17-4 ATS against a visitor that is .500 or better, including 15-0 ATS if the road team is not off consecutive victories (Pitt). My math system has the Steelers as only 2 point favorites. The Bengals will take advantage of the Steelers average pass D (16th in YPPA and 25th in yards/game). Who Dey!
1* Detroit +4.5 over N.Y. Jets (Possible Upgrade
Detroit is a covering machine going 6-1 ATS thus far this year. I still think they are undervalued. They were in every game this season. Their only double digit loss was at Minnesota (and this was on a late TD by Minne). I was surprised when I did my math system on this game; it has the Lions as 1 point favorites. Statistically, the Lions aren't overwhelming, but neither are the Jets. Their running game is strong, but they are 26th in pass offense and 13th in pass defense. Detroit will build momentum off their home win last week. On the other side, the Jets are coming off a shutout loss and the public will play them to "bounce back" which is why Vegas has inflated this line slightly. Take the Lions!
1* Baltimore -5 over Miami
Baltimore is in a great situational spot for the cover here. The Ravens are off a bye, while the Dolphins are off an underdog road win and they are 4-0 on the road. Statistically, the Ravens have an edge on defense where they are at the top half of the league both against the run and pass. Miami's offense is 21st in the air and the ground and will be shut down against the Ravens D. My math system has Baltimore -6.5. There is a 87-51 ATS trend favoring the Ravens due the scheduling.
1* Cleveland +4.5 over N.E.
New England is vastly overrated (due to public perception) causing their lines to be too high. Remember, lines are based on public perception, not on how good one team is better than the other. New England does not crack the top 10 in any statistical category. They are 13th in run offense and 12th in pass offense. And are 10th in run defense and 23rd in pass defense. On the other hand, the Browns are undervalued. They have played the second hardest schedule in the league and have kept every game close. They have only lost one game by double digits and that was against the Falcons where they controlled the entire game and Delhomme came in to throw a pick 6. Cleveland also applies to a 108-67 ATS contrary trend due to the Pats recent win streak. With NE coming off 3 tight games against strong opponents (Balt, SD, Minne) and the Browns off a bye I think Cleveland gets the cover here.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Cinci over Pitt (Possible Upgrade)
Note: I would wait until close to gametime to wager on the Bengals becaus the line will continue to go up.
When a team looks like they are at their worst is the best time to back them (because the public jumps off of them and they now have line value). That is the Cincinnati Bengals right now. The Bengals will be a Monday Night division home dog, which is usually a good play, but the Bengals qualify for even a more specific trend. Monday night divisional home underdogs of less than 7 points with losing records (Cinci) are 17-4 ATS against a visitor that is .500 or better, including 15-0 ATS if the road team is not off consecutive victories (Pitt). My math system has the Steelers as only 2 point favorites. The Bengals will take advantage of the Steelers average pass D (16th in YPPA and 25th in yards/game). Who Dey!
1* Detroit +4.5 over N.Y. Jets (Possible Upgrade
Detroit is a covering machine going 6-1 ATS thus far this year. I still think they are undervalued. They were in every game this season. Their only double digit loss was at Minnesota (and this was on a late TD by Minne). I was surprised when I did my math system on this game; it has the Lions as 1 point favorites. Statistically, the Lions aren't overwhelming, but neither are the Jets. Their running game is strong, but they are 26th in pass offense and 13th in pass defense. Detroit will build momentum off their home win last week. On the other side, the Jets are coming off a shutout loss and the public will play them to "bounce back" which is why Vegas has inflated this line slightly. Take the Lions!
1* Baltimore -5 over Miami
Baltimore is in a great situational spot for the cover here. The Ravens are off a bye, while the Dolphins are off an underdog road win and they are 4-0 on the road. Statistically, the Ravens have an edge on defense where they are at the top half of the league both against the run and pass. Miami's offense is 21st in the air and the ground and will be shut down against the Ravens D. My math system has Baltimore -6.5. There is a 87-51 ATS trend favoring the Ravens due the scheduling.
1* Cleveland +4.5 over N.E.
New England is vastly overrated (due to public perception) causing their lines to be too high. Remember, lines are based on public perception, not on how good one team is better than the other. New England does not crack the top 10 in any statistical category. They are 13th in run offense and 12th in pass offense. And are 10th in run defense and 23rd in pass defense. On the other hand, the Browns are undervalued. They have played the second hardest schedule in the league and have kept every game close. They have only lost one game by double digits and that was against the Falcons where they controlled the entire game and Delhomme came in to throw a pick 6. Cleveland also applies to a 108-67 ATS contrary trend due to the Pats recent win streak. With NE coming off 3 tight games against strong opponents (Balt, SD, Minne) and the Browns off a bye I think Cleveland gets the cover here.
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