Announcement

**Udog** · 11-03-2010, 05:26 PM

NFL
Dunkel

NY Jets at Detroit
The Jets look to bounce back from their loss to Green Bay last week and build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 road games. New York is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Game 405-406: Chicago at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 128.730; Buffalo 127.571
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 36
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under

Game 407-408: San Diego at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.062; Houston 130.595
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-1 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 132.393; Carolina 126.818
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Over

Game 411-412: Arizona at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 123.992; Minnesota 136.054
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 39
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7 1/2); Under

Game 413-414: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.771; Atlanta 133.722
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+8 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: NY Jets at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 139.765; Detroit 130.710
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 9; 45
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-3 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Miami at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.617; Baltimore 136.655
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 5 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+5 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: New England at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.266; Cleveland 129.938
Dunkel Line: New England by 8 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over

Game 421-422: NY Giants at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.008; Seattle 130.139
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: Kansas City at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 132.318; Oakland 133.040
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 425-426: Indianapolis at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.620; Philadelphia 138.568
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 427-428: Dallas at Green Bay (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.909; Green Bay 135.891
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 8

Game 429-430: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.927; Cincinnati 130.957
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-03-2010, 05:29 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Sunday, November 7

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CHICAGO (4 - 3) at BUFFALO (0 - 7) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (3 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 3) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 3) at CAROLINA (1 - 6) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (3 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 5) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at ATLANTA (5 - 2) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 2) at DETROIT (2 - 5) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (4 - 3) at BALTIMORE (5 - 2) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 5) - 11/7/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (5 - 2) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/7/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
SEATTLE is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 4) - 11/7/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 28-58 ATS (-35.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 3) - 11/7/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 6) at GREEN BAY (5 - 3) - 11/7/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 129-98 ATS (+21.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 8

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at CINCINNATI (2 - 5) - 11/8/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 80-52 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-03-2010, 05:30 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Sunday, 11/7/2010

CHICAGO at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET - (Played in Toronto, Canada)
CHICAGO: 8-1 Under off 2 straight ATS losses
BUFFALO: 8-1 Under after allowing 14 pts or less

SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 16-3 ATS vs. AFC South
HOUSTON: 0-3 ATS vs. San Diego

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 0-4 ATS vs. Carolina
CAROLINA: 9-1 ATS playing with revenge

ARIZONA at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 47-28 Over in dome games
MINNESOTA: 10-2 Over in Wks 5 through 9

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 1-9 ATS off road game
ATLANTA: 16-4 ATS after allowing 400+ yds BB games

NY JETS at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 6-0 ATS Away after allowing 3 pts or less 1st half last game
DETROIT: 0-6 ATS in November home games

MIAMI at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 11-3 ATS as road underdog
BALTIMORE: 8-1 Under off an Over

NEW ENGLAND at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 30-14 ATS off 3 straight ATS wins
CLEVELAND: 9-1 Under off non-conference game

NY GIANTS at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 11-0 Under as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
SEATTLE: 9-0 Under after covering 2 of their previous 3 games

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 0-9 ATS after gaining 375+ total yards L3 games
OAKLAND: 8-1 Under in November

INDIANAPOLIS at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 15-9 Over vs. NFC East
PHILADELPHIA: 18-4 Under off bye week

DALLAS at GREEN BAY, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 20-8 ATS after allowing 35+ pts
GREEN BAY: 10-3 Over vs. Dallas

Monday, 11/8/2010

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
PITTSBURGH: 14-5 ATS at Cincinnati
CINCINNATI: 9-20 ATS vs. conference opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-03-2010, 05:31 PM

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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Sunday, November 8

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BALTIMOREhe total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. HOUSTON
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Detroit is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Arizona is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. BUFFALO
Chicago is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. SEATTLE
NY Giants are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games at home

4:15 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

4:15 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 10 games when playing Kansas City

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Green Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Dallas

Monday, November 8

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

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**jt4545** · 11-03-2010, 06:26 PM

thanks and good luck

**Kaptain** · 11-03-2010, 07:57 PM

as always....thanks U Dog for always being there for us........appreciate your un rewarding efforts....

**Udog** · 11-04-2010, 10:18 AM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 9 games

Jets (5-2) @ Lions (2-5)—Gang Green allowed 9-10 points in its two losses, failing to score offensive TD in either game; they’re 5-1 as road favorite under Ryan, winning away games this year by 31-23/38-14/24-20 scores. Detroit is 6-1 vs. spread this year, covering last four; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Eagles by 3 (trailed by 15 late), beating Rams 44-6, Redskins 37-25 (scored 17 points in last 4:32). Lions scored four TDs last week, but longest drive of the four was 52 yards; they had 13-yard edge in field position. Detroit allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. AFC East favorites are 4-3-1 vs. spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-3-1, 1-0 at home. Five of last six games for both sides went over the total.

Bears (4-3) @ Bills (0-7)—Winless Buffalo played heart out on road last two weeks, losing at tail end of OT to Ravens/Chiefs, two first place teams; they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 5-24-10 points, giving up 29.7 ppg (10 TD’s/34 drives). Bills converted 22-40 on 3rd down, but were -3 in turnovers; Fitzpatrick got his NFL start in St Louis when Martz was coach, so Bears could have insight on him. Chicago lost last two games, both at home by FG each; since 1993, Bears are 2-6 vs. spread as favorite coming off a bye. Chicago is 2-1 on road, losing 17-3 at Jets (gave up 10 sacks), beating Dallas/Carolina (combined 1-13). Since start of ’08 season, Buffalo is 1-6-1 vs. spread as a home underdog. Four of last five Buffalo games went over total; four of last five Bear games stayed under.

Chargers (3-5) @ Texans (4-3)—San Diego is 3-0 in series, winning 27-20 in only visit here, in 2004; Bolts had fifth punt blocked last week, leading to early safety- they’re 0-4 on road, losing by combined total of 18 points despite being favored in all four games (Bolts have been favored in every ’10 game). Short work week for Houston team that is 2-2 at home, losing to Dallas/Giants; winning side scored 27+ points in all four games. Texans are 4-4 in game following their last eight losses to nemesis Colts- they allowed 34-31-30 points in last three games overall, and haven’t had a takeaway in four of their seven games this year. San Diego is 3-9 in last dozen games as road favorite. Five of last seven San Diego games went over the total.

Saints (5-3) @ Panthers (1-6)—New Orleans (-13.5) escaped with 16-14 win in Carolina’s visit to Superdome in Week 4; Saints had 383-251 edge in yardage, but had only one TD (three FGs) in five trips in Carolina red zone. Panthers haven’t been swept in this season series since 2001, winning three of last four series games played here. Carolina is 2-3 as underdog, 1-3 SU at home, losing by 13-13-17 points (scored 7-7-6); they scored 14 or less points in each of last five losses. Saints allowed 27-30-30 points in their three losses; they were -2/-3/-4 in turnovers in those three games. Home underdogs are 11-4-1 vs. spread in divisional games so far this season, but home teams are 0-4 vs. spread in NFC South tilts so far in 2010.

Cardinals (3-4) @ Vikings (2-5)—Larry Fitzgerald returns home with Arizona squad lacking competent QB play; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in six of seven games this year (-9 in turnovers for year), with 14 giveaways in four road games. Arizona is 0-3 as road dog this season, losing away games by 34-31-12 points (won road opener as favorite in St Louis). Viking soap opera rambles on with Moss getting fired this week; Favre is playing hurt, and team is 2-1 at home- they’re 0-4 when scoring less than 24 points. Minnesota lost 30-17 in desert LY, their third loss in last 12 series games; Redbirds lost last five visits here, with their last win back in ’97. Last four Minnesota games all went over the total, as did four of last five Cardinal games.

Buccaneers (5-2) @ Falcons (5-2)—Unlikely battle for first in NFC South; Home side won four of last five series games, with average total in last eight meetings, 30.1. Bucs lost last two visits here, 13-10ot/20-17. Four of Tampa Bay’s five wins are by 3 or less points, and they’ve won last five road games, with defense scoring three TD’s in last two games on foreign soil. Atlanta is 4-2 in game following its last six byes, covering three of last four as post-bye favorite. Falcons are 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite) winning by 34-2-7 points, while scoring 32 ppg. Bucs have been plus in turnovers in five of seven games, even in the other two. Home favorites are 5-13 vs. spread in divisional games this season, 0-3 in NFC South games.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Ravens (5-2)—Miami is 4-0 on road (underdog in last three), 0-3 at home, which explains low spread. Fish are on road for third time in four weeks; they didn’t allow second half TD in either of last two games. Dogs covered their last six games overall. Ravens split pair of OT games before their bye; they’re 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3 points (1-2 as home favorite). Baltimore covered its last five games as a post-bye favorite; they beat Miami twice in ’08, including 27-9 playoff win. AFC East road underdogs are 6-1 in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 1-4. All four Miami road games stayed under the total. All three Baltimore home games went over.

Patriots (6-1) @ Browns (2-5)—Belichick was 37-45 as coach of old Browns before they moved away. Patriots won two of last three visits here, winning by 12-27 points. NE won last five games (3-0-1 vs. spread in last four); they’re 2-1 on road, losing to Jets, winning by 27 at Miami, 3 at San Diego- they’re 1-4-1 vs. spread in last six games as road favorite. Cleveland split last four games after 0-3 start; they scored 17 or less points in all five losses, 23-30 in their wins. Pats’ last four foes all scored 20 or less points. Favorites are 9-0 vs. spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games; Browns are 0-5 as post-bye underdog, also losing five of last six games to Patriots, with four of five losses by 11+ points (last two were 34-17/42-15). Over is 5-2 in Patriot games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland contests.

Chiefs (5-2) @ Raiders (4-4)—Home side lost last seven games in this rivalry, with teams splitting last six, after Chiefs won previous eight; KC won last seven visits here, with six of the seven wins by 7 or less points. Chiefs are 4-1 as underdog this year, 2-1 as road dog, winning at Houston, but losing 19-9 at Indy (Colts didn’t score TD until last 5:00), 35-31 at Houston (Chiefs led by 10 in 4th quarter). KC hasn’t turned ball over in last three games (+4). Oakland is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as home favorite, allowing 18.8 ppg at home- they had 328-239 rushing yards in last two games, as Bush/McFadden rushing tandem proving to be very productive. Oakland allowed only four TD’s on foes’ last 48 drives. Average total in last eight series games is 28.9; average in last four played here, 27.5.

Giants (5-2) @ Seahawks (4-3)—Home side won last nine series games; Giants lost last four visits here, by 5-2-3-12 points- their last win in Seattle was in 1981, but Big Blue was on roll before bye, winning last four games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last three (13 TD’s on 38 drives). Jersey ran ball for 163.3 ypg in last four games, but they’ve also turned ball over 3+ times in five of seven game- they’re 4-0 with even/positive turnover ratio, with all four wins by 8+ points . Seattle is 3-0 at home, allowing just 8.7 ppg in wins over 49ers-Chargers-Cardinals (combined record, 8-14). NFC West home underdogs are 5-0 vs. spread in non-divisional games. NFC East favorites are 4-7, 1-2 on foreign soil. Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

Colts (5-2) @ Eagles (4-3)—Banged-up Indy travelling on short work week after tough divisional win, so letdown here likely, even on national TV, vs. Philly squad coming off bye. Eagles scored 27+ points in all four wins, 20-12-19 in losses; curious to see if Kolb/Vick gets start under center. Colts won last four series games, all by 22+ points; they won four of last five visits here, with last two by 44-17/35-13 margins, but last visit here was in ’02. Indy is 2-2 on road, losing by 10 at Houston, 3 at Jacksonville (allowed 34-31 points in losses); they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 31 points. This is first time Colts have been underdog in 2010; since 2006, they’re 7-3 as single digit dog- since ’01, they’re 6-0-1 vs. spread when an underdog of 3 or less points.

Cowboys (1-6) @ Packers (5-3)— Dallas is a disaster, losing last four games while allowing 34.5 ppg (16 TD’s on 46 drives); having 38-year old backup Kitna under center ain’t helping any. Green Bay has much-needed bye after this game; before last week’s 9-0 win in Swamp, their previous five games had been decided by 4 or less points. Pack is 2-2 as home fave this year (14-11-1 since ’06)- their only win this year by more than 7 points was 34-7 in Week 2 over winless Bills. Home side won 12 of last 13 games in this series, with Dallas 1-6 at Lambeau Field (only win in ’08—they were also 3-2 in five games in Milwaukee). Six of eight Packer games stayed under total, but last four Dallas games went over.

Steelers (5-2) @ Bengals (2-5)—Monday night home dogs a traditional money-maker, and home dogs in divisional games are 11-4-1 this year. Nasty bit of scheduling has Steelers playing third straight week on road, historical soft spot in NFL, especially with last two in primetime. Pitt’s 23-20 loss here LY was their first in last nine visits, as Bengals swept season series. Steelers scored 14-10 points in their two losses- they allowed 22-20 points in last two games, after giving up just 12 ppg in first five games of year. Cincy lost last four games, allowing 27 ppg; they gave up 10-7 points in their two wins, 22+ in their five losses. No one has run ball for more than 75 yards against Steelers this year. Three of last four Bengal games went over the total.

**Udog** · 11-05-2010, 10:56 AM

NFL

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 9
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New York Jets at Detroit Lions (+4)

Why Jets cover: LaDainian Tomlinson and the Jets third-ranked rushing attack should have no problem carving up a Lions defense that is allowing 130.4 yards per game on the ground.

Why Lions cover: Matthew Stafford was impressive in his first game back from injury. Mark Sanchez is struggling and coming off a game in which the Jets failed to register a point.

Total (41.5): The over is 4-0 in the Jets' last four road games and 5-0 in the Lions' last five home games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-9)

Why Buccaneers cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Atlanta. The road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Falcons cover: They could get starting cornerback Dunta Robinson back from the concussion he suffered in Week 6. Matt Ryan has won his last 12 starts at home.

Total (45.5): The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

Why Dolphins cover: The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and so is the road team. The Ravens have allowed an average of 318.7 yards through the air in their past three games.

Why Ravens cover: They’re 7-1 straight up after their bye since 2002. Last week's bye allowed their banged up receivers to heal, including Donte' Stallworth who will make his season debut after missing eight weeks with a broken foot.

Total (40.5): The over is 5-1 in the Ravens' last six home games.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)

Why Patriots cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Two-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins has returned from his holdout, and could help open holes for the Patriots' rushing attack.

Why Browns cover: New England's inexperienced defense is ranked 28th in the NFL and could wear down against Peyton Hillis' punishing style of running.

Total (44.5): The over is 4-1 in the Browns' last five games and 7-2 in the Patriots' last nine.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-9)

Why Cardinals cover: The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. With Randy Moss gone, Percy Harvin questionable with an ankle injury and Sidney Rice not ready to return, it looks like Bernard Berrian and Greg Camarillo will be Brett Favre's starting wide receivers on Sunday. Ouch.

Why Vikings cover: Derek Anderson, who has thrown seven interceptions and only four touchdowns while compiling a meager 62.8 quarterback rating, will get the start for Arizona.

Total (41): The over is 4-0 in the Vikings' last four games and 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six games.

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

Why Bears cover: Buffalo has been unable to stop anyone on the ground this season and have allowed four of their last five opponents to reach the 200-yard mark, including 274 to Kansas City last week.

Why Bills cover: The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Until Mike Martz decides to incorporate the run into his offensive scheme, teams will continue to blitz Jay Cutler or sit back in coverage and pick him off.

Total (41): Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in points per game.

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (+3)

Why Chargers cover: Philip Rivers leads the NFL with 2,649 passing yards and Houston ranks last in the league against the pass, allowing almost 300 yards per game.

Why Texans cover: San Diego is 0-4 straight up and ATS on the road this season and averages 13.5 points per game less away from home.

Total (50.5): This could turn into a shootout with both teams capable of putting up points in a hurry.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Why Saints cover: Matt Moore has thrown 10 interceptions in five games and Carolina ranks last in the league in total offense at 271.0 yards and 12.1 points per game.

Why Panthers cover: The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Carolina.

Total (41): The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 7-0 in the last seven games in Carolina.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (+5.5)

Why Giants cover: They have knocked five quarterbacks out of games this season and Matt Hasselbeck, who was sacked eight times last week, is already battling a concussion. If he can't go, Charlie Whitehurst could make his first NFL start. Either way, it should be a long day for whoever takes the snaps for Seattle.

Why Seahawks cover: Eli Manning leads the league with 11 interceptions and the Giants are third in the NFL with 19 giveaways.

Total (41): The over is 4-1 in the Giants' last five road games.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Why Colts cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Eagles cover: Joseph Addai is out and both Donald Brown (hamstring) and Mike Hart (ankle) are suffering from injuries that will hamper their running ability if they can play. Deep threat DeSean Jackson has passed his concussion tests and could suit up on Sunday along with Michael Vick and Jason Peters.

Total (47): The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

Why Chiefs cover: They're 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Oakland. The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Oakland is likely to be without leading receiver Zach Miller (foot) and cover corner Nnamdi Asomugha (ankle).

Why Raiders cover: Oakland has gone 4-0 ATS and is averaging 34 points per game since Jason Campbell took over for the injured Bruce Gradkowski in Week 5.

Total (41): The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 5-0 in the last five games in Oakland.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-9)

Why Cowboys cover: Jon Kitna had a big game last week (along with some bad luck) and is a capable replacement for Tony Romo. Green Bay is still bitten by the injury bug on both sides of the ball.

Why Packers cover: The home team is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings and the favorite is 7-2 ATS over the same stretch.

Total (44): The under is 5-1 in the Cowboys' last six road games and 6-2 in the Packers' last eight games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Reds (+4.5)

Why Steelers cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Cincinnati. The road team is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Why Bengals cover: Their secondary will get a big boost from the return of defensive backs Roy Williams and Johnathan Joseph.

Total (41.5): The under is 5-2 in the Steelers' last seven Monday Night Football games and 6-2 in the Bengals' last eight home games.

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**Udog** · 11-05-2010, 11:28 PM

NFL

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NFL Total Bias: Week 9 over/under plays
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As bettors, we all know that we need to check our allegiances at the door when it comes to evaluating lines and making betting decisions.

I started betting totally biased toward the Chicago Bears. Grew up a Bears fan, thought they could do no wrong – until, of course, I started losing a whack of cake every week on the Mediocrity of the Midway. I quickly learned that I wasn’t evaluating games accurately.

It’s just one of those lessons you need to learn when making the jump from sports fan to sports gambling fan. For me it wasn’t tough, considering the Bears have had just about one good season since I was in grade school. Maybe it would have been harder for me if I grew up a Pats fan or a Colts fan or something.

I rarely – if ever – bet on the Bears anymore which makes sense since I’m not big on shredding paychecks or shelling out to telemarketers either. But I did have a great run betting Bears overs back when they played the Colts in the Super Bowl and when Kyle Orton was taking some of the snaps. With a great defense and a terrible offense, the general public would keep the total low while I usually played over, expecting big special teams gains and some timely defensive turnovers (or touchdowns).

This year I don’t know what to make of the club. Coming out of the bye, I want to think they’ve had the time to clear up their offensive line issues, that Jay Cutler magically learned to plant his feet before throwing downfield, and that somehow, some way, the club figured out how to score touchdowns when they end up second-and-goal from the two yard line.

But I’m far from optimistic. Again, as a Bears fan, I’ve learned over the years that pessimism is the best policy.

They sit as 3-point favorites against the pathetic Buffalo Bills this week in a game that’s being played in Toronto.

Should the Bears be able to handle the Bills? Probably – but I’ve been down this road too many times before to touch the pointspread.

The total looks awfully tempting though. Maybe this week I’ll break my rule about betting on Bears games. Considering my season’s picks record so far, I’m obviously due to turn over a new leaf.

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+3, 40.5)

Buffalo has a terrible pass rush, but even if the Bills get to Cutler after the Bears offense has had a week to figure out its pass protection, I still like the over here.

It’s more to do with what Buffalo has been up to than anything else. The Bills are two weeks removed from putting up 514 total yards against the Baltimore Ravens and were in line to put some points on the board against Kansas City if four turnovers didn’t get in the way.

Meanwhile, the Bills still allow a league-worst 30.1 points per game and 384.3 total yards an outing.

Pick: Over

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-5, 40.5)

Speaking of the Ravens, I would hate to be the Miami Dolphins coming into this game with Baltimore coming off the bye.

John Harbaugh's boys are a proud bunch and wouldn’t have taken that close call against Buffalo lightly. A week of some good film work and rest is exactly what this club needed. Ed Reed looked great in his return to the lineup before the bye in picking off a pair of passes and I think that this defense is just going to get better down the stretch.

The Dolphins can play a little defense too, of course, giving up 309.4 yards per game which is good for eighth in the league.

Pick: Under

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (5, 41.5)
Last year the Cincinnati Bengals took both of its meetings with the Steelers, but this is a new year and a completely different team.

Or they’re playing that way anyway.

In the box score, one might think that Carson Palmer finally got on the same page with Terrell Owens last week when the pair connected on a pair of touchdowns. But that’s not the case. One of those touchdowns should have been picked off and Palmer continues to fire high and outside to not only Owens, but the rest of the Cincinnati receiving staff.

Palmer will be up against his old college roommate Troy Polamalu again this week. Don’t expect the versatile safety or any of the rest of the Steelers to let up after last week’s loss to New Orleans.

Pick: Under

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 10-15

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**Udog** · 11-06-2010, 10:12 PM

NFL

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NFL Week 9 weather report: Rain on the Raiders
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It’s Week 9 of the NFL season and still no snow. C’mon Mother Nature! Despite the lack of white stuff, there is plenty of wind out East and a lot of rain expected in Oakland this Sunday.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-5, 40.5)

The sun will be shinning in Baltimore but Chad Henne and Joe Flacco will have to deal with some winds in this Week 9 matchup. An 11-mph breeze is expected to be blowing from corner to corner, North-Northwest, dropping temperatures into the low 40s.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+4, 43.5)

Cleveland will get similar weather with clear skies in the forecast, but winds blowing up to 15 mph in Ohio. Game-time temps will also dip into the low 40s.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (+7, 41)

The Giants and Seahawks will miss the rains Sunday. Seattle will get a soaking early Sunday morning, with a cloudy window expect for game time. Then, rains will roll in later in the evening, keeping Qwest Field dry – by Seattle standards – for this Week 9 matchup.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47)

Clear skies are in the forecast for Philadelphia, with medium-to-strong winds blowing through Lincoln Financial Field. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 40s Sunday, cooling off the climate-control Colts.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1, 40.5)

While the East Coast basks in the sun, the West Coast gets hit by rain. The wet stuff is expected to pour on the Chiefs and Raiders Sunday, putting even more importance on the run game. There is an 80 percent chance of rain with winds blowing up to 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the high 50s for this 4:15 ET kickoff.

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**Udog** · 11-07-2010, 09:33 AM

NFL

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Packers
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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45)

The first Sunday night in November shaped up as one of the more highly-anticipated games of the season when the NFL schedule for 2010 was released.

Nine weeks into the season, executives at NBC Sports will gladly settle for a competitive game when the Dallas Cowboys stumble into Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers Sunday night.

Odds

Books opened with Sunday night’s spread as high a -9 in favor of Green Bay. That number has been bet down as low as a touchdown. The total opened at 44 points, with action on the Over pushing it to 45 as of Saturday afternoon.

Dallas is 1-6 ATS on the year, having failed to cover in four straight games. The Cowboys are 5-2 over/under this season.

Green Bay is 4-4 ATS and has covered the spread in back-to-back games. The Packers are 2-6 over/under on the year.

Big D-isaster

On paper, this game had all the necessary ingredients for a marquee matchup: Two of the league's most successful franchises, a historic rivalry and a likely battle for NFC supremacy between two teams touted among the favorites to reach the Super Bowl.

Except for one problem: The Cowboys never got the memo. Coming off an 11-5 record in 2009, Dallas has been the biggest bust of the season, entering Sunday's game with a 1-6 record and riding a four-game losing streak.

The ultimate indignity for the Cowboys came a week ago, when they were thoroughly manhandled in a 35-17 loss to Jacksonville that dropped them to 0-4 at home. Mind you, this was the same Jaguars squad that was coming off back-to-back defeats and had been outscored 72-23 in the process.

Dallas allowed quarterback David Garrard - who was returning from a concussion - to complete his first 12 passes en route to finishing 17 of 21 for 260 yards and four touchdown passes. Garrard also ran for a score and compiled a stunning passer rating of 157.8 - just a shade under the perfect mark of 158.3.

Now the Cowboys, who have been mauled for 134 points – a 33.5 average – during the four-game skid, must deal with one of the league’s elite quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers.

Cheese please

Green Bay’s offense did next to nothing a week ago, but the Packers received a staunch effort from their defense in blanking the New York Jets 9-0 to take over first place in the NFC North.

The Packers (5-3) have been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball and absorbed a couple of killer injuries when starting running back Ryan Grant and tight end Jermichael Finley were lost for the season.

Rodgers struggled in windy conditions in New Jersey, going 15 of 34 for a season-low 170 yards, but the Packers got three field goals from Mason Crosby in snapping the Jets’ five-game winning streak.

Green Bay will be seeking its second victory over the Cowboys in as many years at Lambeau. Rodgers threw for a touchdown and ran for another as the Packers hung a 17-7 loss on Dallas last November.

The Cowboys will be playing their second game without Tony Romo, who suffered a broken collarbone in a 41-35 loss to the Giants on Oct. 25.

Jon Kitna made his first start in two years and played decently against the Jaguars, completing 34 of 49 passes for 379 yards and a touchdown. The 38-year-old veteran also threw four interceptions, but three of them bounced off his receivers’ hands.

Dallas’ running game again was atrocious, with Felix Jones and Marion Barber combining for 38 yards on 17 carries.

Weather

The forecast is calling for clear skies at Lambeau Field with game-time temperatures dipping into the low 40s. There is a light wind expected to be blowing around 5 mph from corner to corner (SSE).

Trends

- Home team is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
- Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
- Over is 50-24-2 in Packers last 76 versus a team with a losing record.
- Cowboys are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games in November.

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**Udog** · 11-07-2010, 09:38 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 7

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Tips and Trends
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Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

DOLPHINS: Miami is 4-3 SU this season, yet it's the way they've gone about acquiring that record that is so unique. The Dolphins have won every road game they've played this season, while losing each home contest this year. In fact, Miami is the 5th team in NFL history to start the season 0-3 SU at home and 4-0 SU on the road this year. Miami is 5-2 ATS this season, including 4-0 ATS on the road. The Dolphins are only averaging 19 PPG, near the bottom in scoring this season. Surprisingly, Miami is only 16th in the NFL in rushing at 111 YPG this year. RB's Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have combined for only 700 YDS rushing and 2 TD's this season. Defensively, the Dolphins are starting to play better compared with how poorly they started the season. Miami has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 2 seasons to the Ravens by double figures. The Dolphins have outgained 4 of their past 5 opponents in total yards. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Miami is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Dolphins are 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games on fieldturf.

Key Injuries - LB Channing Crowder (thumb) is questionable.

Projected Score: 14

RAVENS: (-5.5, O/U 40.5) Baltimore is right in the thick of things in the AFC, as they are a solid 5-2 SU, with both losses coming by a combined 8 PTS. The Ravens are coming off their bye week, which has proven to be successful over the years. Baltimore is 7-1 SU in the game following their bye week since 2002. Under Coach Harbaugh, the Ravens are 2-0 after the bye week, winning by an average of 20 PPG in those specific contests. Baltimore is 3-0 SU at home this year, but only 1-2 ATS. Baltimore is averaging 21.3 PPG this season, and the Ravens appear ready to improve on that number. QB Joe Flacco has thrown for 5 TD's in his past 2 games, and has a QB Rating more than 110 in each of those games. Defensively, the Ravens are 7th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 PPG. This proud defense is showing signs of age, as they've given up a combined 57 PTS in the past 2 games combined. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Baltimore is 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games as a home favorite. The Ravens are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Ravens are 7-2 ATS last 9 games following a bye week.
Under is 6-0 last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - WR Derrick Mason (finger) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

COWBOYS: Who in their right mind would have ever thought that in Week 9 of the season that Dallas would only have 1 SU win? Dallas is 1-6 both SU and ATS this season, easily the most disappointing team in the NFL. The most puzzling factor of the Cowboys 1-6 SU record is the fact that they have gained more total yards than each of their opponent but 1 this year. QB Jon Kitna is actually doing a fine job of filling in for injured star QB Tony Romo. The rushing attack of the Cowboys is to be blamed this year, because it's been nearly nonexistent. Dallas is averaging 80.9 rushing YPG this year, 2nd worst in the NFL. Defensively, the Cowboys have really fallen off the map, as it appears they aren't even putting forth the effort necessary to win in the NFL. The Cowboys are allowing 26.7 PPG this season, 6th worst in football. Dallas lost last year to the Packers 7-17 SU, so they would like nothing more than to derail the Super Bowl hopes of the Packers tonight. The Cowboys are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played in November. Dallas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC.

Cowboys are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 5-1 last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - CB Terence Newman (ribs) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24

PACKERS: (-8, O/U 44) Green Bay is coming off an impressive road win over the New York Yets, and hope to keep that momentum going tonight. With a win tonight, Green Bay will have their first 3 game winning streak of the season. The Packers are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS overall this season. Green Bay is really hoping to play well offensively tonight, as they've only scored more than 20 PTS once in their past 4 games overall. With a strong offensive performance tonight, it's unlikely the makeshift Dallas offense can keep up. Green Bay is averaging 22 PPG this season, thanks to the QB play of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS this season while completing better than 61% of his passes, including 12 TD's. The biggest surprise of the season for Green Bay has been their defense. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 17 PPG this year. Green Bay has a fierce pass rush that has 24 sacks on the season, tied for 3rd best in the NFL. The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Packers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Packers are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games following a SU win.
Over is 15-7 last 22 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 11-08-2010, 10:00 AM

NFL

Monday, November 8

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Tips and Trends
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

STEELERS: (-5.5, O/U 41) Pittsburgh is playing back to back primetime games, while hoping for a different outcome than last week. The Steelers are 5-2 SU and 3-1 SU on the road this season. The Steelers are out for revenge considering they lost both meetings with the Bengals last year SU, the listed favorite each time. Pittsburgh is 2-2 ATS this season on the road. Pittsburgh is hoping QB Ben Roethlisberger will lead this Steelers to a better showing offensively this week. The Steelers are averaging 21 PPG this year, yet are averaging the 6th fewest YPG in the NFL. RB Barshard Mendenhall has rushed for more than 600 YDS and 6 TD's this season. Pittsburgh is as good as ever defensively, as they are allowing a league low 14.6 PPG this year. Only 1 opponent has scored more than 20 PTS against the Steelers this year. The Steelers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the listed favorite. The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Steelers are 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - T Flozell Adams (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

BENGALS: Cincinnati has dealt with plenty of heartbreaks during their current 4 game SU losing streak. The Bengals have lost by 1 possession in each of those 4 losses. The Bengals are 2-1 both SU and ATS at home this season. The point spread has yet to matter this year for the Bengals, as they've had the exact same result both SU and ATS in each game this year. Cincinnati has been outgained in relation to total yards in each of their home games this year. QB Carson Palmer has been very inconsistent this year, and there are questions regarding his leadership of this Cincinnati offense. Palmer has a QB Rating of 83 this year, along with 12 TD's and 7 INT's. The Bengals were held under 275 YDS offensively in each meeting with the Steelers last year. The biggest reason for the Bengals being just 2-5 SU this year is their defense. Cincinnati is allowing 23.3 PPG this year, 9th worst in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed at least 22 PTS in each of their last 4 games. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.

Bengals are 1-6 ATS last 7 home games overall.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DT Tank Johnson (leg) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)

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**Udog** · 11-08-2010, 10:03 AM

NFL

Monday, November 8

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What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+5, 41)

Current Odds

The Steelers opened as 3.5-point road favorites last week and the money has since pushed the line higher. Pittsburgh is now a 5 to 5.5-point favorite. This is not a surprise as 63 percent of the public is backing the favorite according to the *********** consensus.

The public is more split on the total as only 54 percent is favoring the over. Oddsmakers opened the total as high as 42.5 last week, but it has since dropped down to the key number of 41 in most locations.

Weather will not be an issue tonight as the forecast is calling for clear conditions in Cincinnati with a kickoff temperature of 37-degrees.

Injury Report

The Steelers are healthy and enter tonight’s game with only a few injuries. Offensive tackles Flozell Adams and Chris Scott are both listed as questionable, while defensive end Brett Keisel is probable and expected to play tonight.

The Bengals are more banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Cincinnati lost cornerback Adam Jones to a season-ending neck injury two weeks ago. Defensive tackle Tank Johnson injured his knee last week and is listed as questionable, along with linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy who is battling an ankle injury.

Defensive end Jonathan Fanene has been downgraded to doubtful with a hamstring injury, while defensive backs Chinedum Ndukwe, Roy Williams and Johnathan Joseph are all listed as probable and expected to play tonight.

3rd Down Blues

The Cincinnati offense can’t seem to get out of its own way this season. The Bengals have scored 21 points or less in five of their seven games, and the two games they scored 24 and 32 points were games they were trailing by double digits and scored in garbage time.

A big reason for their lack of production has been their inability to convert on 3rd down. The Bengals had five straight three and outs in their last game against the Dolphins and were just 2-for-12 on 3rd down in that game.

The Bengals are 20th in the league in 3rd-down efficiency (37.3 percent) and quarterback Carson Palmer is 27th in 3rd-down passing, going 40-82 for 431 yards and a QB rating of 62.6. He is one of only four quarterbacks in the NFL with a completion percentage on 3rd down below 50 percent.

“We put ourselves in some third and long situations instead of using the run game to get into third and short or third and mediums,” Palmer told reporters this week. “Being able to bring a four-man rush and still get coverage is a good combination for a defensive team.”

Double Revenge

Pittsburgh lost to Cincinnati twice last season; 23-20 on the road and 18-12 at home. Those results were surprising since the Steelers were 5-1 straight up and against the spread vs. the Bengals the three previous seasons. Pittsburgh’s offense was terrible in both games, and the club's players remember those ugly games well.

”I remember the offense sputtering,” Pittsburgh tight end Health Miller said. “Our defense kept us in the games, but we couldn't really get anything going. They baffled us on third downs.

"We need to understand what we’re up against going into this game. This is a make-or-break game in their season and we’re only 1-1 in our division. We need to really play well if we're going to go in there and get a victory.”

Before scoring just 10 points in New Orleans last week, Pittsburgh's offense scored 51 points in the two games with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back under center. The Steelers should score in this game as the Bengals defense has allowed 22, 39, 24, and 23 points over their last four games.

Struggling Secondary

Pittsburgh’s defense has good overall numbers on the season. The Steelers allow just 15 points and 302 yards per game while holding teams to just 5.0 yards per play.

Those overall numbers hide the fact that Pittsburgh’s secondary is really struggling this season - 243 yards of their 302 yards allowed come through the air. The Steelers rank just 25th in the NFL is passing defense.

In their last four games, they’ve allowed Drew Brees to complete 34 of 44 passes for 305 yards, Chad Henne 257 passing yards, rookie Colt McCoy 281 yards and Joe Flacco 256 passing yards. Those numbers are unlike the Steelers so there’s got to be something wrong with their back seven.

“I think there are times in games where there were a lot of opportunities to make plays, and I didn't make them,” Troy Polamalu said. “It doesn’t have anything to do with anything physical with me, and maybe I'm second-guessing myself a little too much.”

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (11/7 - 11/8)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (11/7 - 11/8)

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