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**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2010, 07:55 PM

NFL Odds: Falcons host surprising Buccaneers
By: Michael Robinson | Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to prove they’re for real when they visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. The winner moves into first place in the NFC South.

Bodog.com has the Buccaneers as solid eight-point ‘dogs with the total still to be released. Most other sportsbooks have the total set at 44 ½-points.

Tampa Bay (5-2 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread) is a huge surprise being tied with Atlanta and the NY Giants for the conference’s best record. Coach Raheem Morris even made the bold statement that his team is the NFC’s best, although NFL oddsmakers clearly disagree.

Green Bay and the New York Giants are both 7/2 to win the conference. Atlanta (4/1) and New Orleans (9/2) are next, with Tampa Bay way down at 28/1. There are nine teams listed ahead of the Bucs.

There are several reasons for the skepticism. The Buccaneers were horrible last year at 3-13, with Morris seemingly overmatched for the job. The schedule has also been easy this year, playing only two teams that are currently over .500. One of those was Pittsburgh and the Steelers beat them 38-13 despite playing without Ben Roethlisberger.

However, Morris deserves a lot of credit and so does 6-foot-6 quarterback Josh Freeman. The 22-year-old showed promise in 10 games last year even with a 59.8 quarterback rating, His rating is up this year (87.1), but more importantly, he’s shown the penchant for pulling out close games.

Four of Tampa’s five wins have come by a field goal or less. Freeman engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in all four, including last week at Arizona (38-35 as three-point underdogs). Tampa Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS away, with additional wins at Carolina (20-7) and Cincinnati (24-21) as ‘dogs.

Rookie LeGarrette Blount is the new featured back after gaining 192 yards the last two weeks. He’ll be needed to provide balance and keep the Atlanta defense honest.

The Falcons (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week. Their last game was a wild one at home against Cincinnati. Atlanta jumped out to a 24-3 margin, only to see Cincinnati storm back for a 25-24 lead. Atlanta then scored 15 straight points and held on for a 39-32 win.

Atlanta has a balanced offense with the fifth-ranked rushing attack (137.4 YPG) and 11th in passing (233.4 YPG). Running back Michael Turner is healthy again and Roddy White is one of the best receivers in the league. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been very solid, but must be careful as Tampa leads the league in interceptions (14).

Turner will be facing the league’s 30th ranked run defense (149.4 YPG), so expect a big dose of him early and often.

The Falcons defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in total yards (356.1 YPG). The pass defense has been torched the last two games by Carson Palmer (412 yards) and Philly’s Kevin Kolb (326 yards). Those aren’t exactly All-Pro quarterbacks and Freeman will test the secondary again, especially to rookie Mike Williams.

The Falcons’ offense is scoring 34 PPG in their three home games and 18.3 in the four away. They’re 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at home this year and 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as a favorite.

The ‘under’ is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games following a bye week.

Tampa Bay is 5-1 in the last six meetings against Atlanta (3-0 ATS away). The ‘under’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Atlanta cornerback Dunta Robinson (concussion) and rookie linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (knee) are two key players listed as questionable. Safety Thomas DeCoud appears probable with a head injury.

Kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. (PT) on Fox. Weather is not a factor in the Georgia Dome.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2010, 07:57 PM

Cowboys bottom out against the NFL spread
By: Stephen Nover | Monday, November 1, 2010

Looking for another reason for Dallas to fire Wade Phillips?

If poor fundamentals, excessive stupid penalties and lack of attention to details aren’t enough how about this: The 1-6 Cowboys also have the worst pointspread mark in the NFL. They are 1-6 ATS, too.

The Cowboys discovered what life is like without Tony Romo, losing 35-17 to Jacksonville at home this past Sunday with 38-year-old Jon Kitna getting picked off four times.

A bad pointspread mark in the NFL usually goes with a bad team. It’s not just the Cowboys.

Denver is 2-6 ATS. The next worst pointspread teams are Arizona, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Carolina. They are all 2-5 ATS. All are below .500. The combined straight-up record of the five teams is 10-26.

The pointspread problems for the Broncos and Bengals haven’t been temporary.

Denver is 5-13 ATS since the seventh game of last year. The Bengals have failed to cover 12 of their last 15 games. They haven’t played with the same intensity or been nearly as physical as they were last year when they captured the AFC North Division.

Arizona, Carolina and Minnesota haven’t been able to overcome turnover-prone quarterbacks.

Carolina quarterbacks Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen have combined to throw 13 interceptions, most in the NFL. Arizona’s Derek Anderson and Max Hall have been picked off a combined 12 times. Brett Favre has 11 interceptions.

The Vikings rank right near the top with Dallas as the most disappointing team in the NFC if not all of football.

Buffalo is the only winless team in the NFL at 0-7. But the Bills are a respectable 3-4 ATS.

No one in their right mind would say Detroit is the best team in the league. Yet the Lions own the top NFL spread mark at 6-1. The only time Detroit didn’t cover the spread was in Week 13 when it lost 24-10 to Minnesota as 13-point road ‘dogs.

In their last four games, the Lions have beat the spread by a whopping 58 ½ points.

St. Louis has the second-best ATS mark at 6-2. The Rams have covered six of their last seven. They were favored for the first time this year on Sunday and covered a 2 ½-point spread with a 20-10 home victory against Carolina.

The next best spread teams are Kansas City, Miami and the New York Jets. All are 5-2 ATS.

Going back to the end of last season, the Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. The Chiefs opened one-point road underdogs to Oakland this Sunday. The Raiders have failed to win in 12 of their last 13 games when favored.

The Dolphins have been money in the bank as an underdog covering 10 of the past 11 times in that role. They also have covered during their past six road matchups. Miami is at Baltimore this week.

The Jets have been an excellent spread team under second-year head coach Rex Ryan. They are 12-4 ATS in their past 16 games.

Seattle is a prime example of a good home club/bad road team. The Seahawks, who host the New York Giants, have covered 10 of their last 13 at noisy Qwest Field. However, they are only 2-11 ATS in their past 13 road contests.

Pittsburgh failed to cover as one-point underdogs at New Orleans this past Sunday night. But the Steelers usually are a profitable ‘dog covering 19 of the last 28 times when getting points.

The Cleveland Browns have one of the worst-looking teams on paper. But Eric Mangini has the Browns playing hard. This is evident in Cleveland covering 10 of its last 14 games despite multiple injuries and sub-standard quarterback play.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-03-2010, 08:10 PM

Harvin should play against Arizona on Sunday

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-4)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Minnesota -7.5, Total: 40.5

Vikings WR Percy Harvin is expected to play through his ankle injury when Minnesota hosts Arizona on Sunday. Harvin rolled the ankle on his first reception in last week’s loss at New England, but was able to return to the game. Minnesota certainly needs Harvin in the lineup after cutting Randy Moss earlier this week. Brett Favre is also expected to start despite a lacerated chin that took him out of the Patriots game in the fourth quarter. Favre’s lingering ankle injury was not a problem in last Sunday’s game and should not hinder him too much against the Cardinals. As for who will start under center for Arizona, head coach Ken Whisenhunt has not announced whether it will be Derek Anderson or rookie Max Hall.

******* take:
Anderson will probably start based on last week’s performance (16-of-24, 234 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT), which bettered Hall’s (8-for-16, 71 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT) in the loss to Tampa Bay, but neither quarterback has been good this year. Anderson has a 62.8 QB rating with a 53.5% completion rate, four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Hall’s rating is a comical 41.0 with a 50.7% completion rate, one touchdown and five picks. But not all the blame in Arizona goes to the struggling quarterbacks. The team ranks 25th in rushing yards (93 YPG) and is allowing the fourth-most yards on the ground (143 YPG) in the NFL. Arizona has been brutal on the road recently, getting outscored 104-27 in three straight losses.

Harvin leads the team in targets (52), catches (31), receiving yards (393) and receiving touchdowns (3). No other wide receiver still on Minnesota’s roster has 10 catches or 100 receiving yards for the season. Despite all the publicity around Favre (7 TD, 11 INT, 69.8 QB rating this year), RB Adrian Peterson has carried the football at least 18 times in every game this season. He will look to redeem himself from his dreadful 13-carry, 19-yard output in the 30-17 loss at Arizona last season.

Including the postseason, the Vikings are 11-1 in their past 12 home games, including a 7-1 ATS mark in the past eight Metrodome contests. The Cardinals have lost the past four meetings at Minnesota, but the final margin has been closer each time (24, 20, 17 and 5-point loss in 2006). The FoxSheets think Minnesota will win the game, but Arizona will not lose by more than a touchdown:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (71-31 since 1983.) (69.6%, +36.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. (63-29 since 1983.) (68.5%, +31.1 units. Rating = 2*).

The past four Vikings games and five of the past six Cardinals games have surpassed the Total, and these FoxSheets coaching trends expect this one to go Over as well:

Brad Childress is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of MINNESOTA. The average score was MINNESOTA 25.8, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Ken Whisenhunt is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score was ARIZONA 28.8, OPPONENT 27.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-03-2010, 08:11 PM

Dolphins underdogs on road at Baltimore

One week after a heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh, the Dolphins walked into Cincinnati and shut down the Bengals. The stakes get ratcheted up with a second road game, this time to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that is determined to return from their bye much better than they went into it.

After a brutal 23-22 loss to the Steelers – where a successful Dolphins (4-3) stand was all for naught courtesy of inconclusive video evidence – the 'Fins dominated the Bengals en route to their fourth straight road win. The Miami offense might not be humming as 10 of their last 11 scores have been Dan Carpenter field goals, but the defense has been lights out all season.

Baltimore (5-2) is hoping to be able to say the same thing. After playing typical Ravens defense for six weeks, they inexplicably needed overtime to put away the winless Bills. Baltimore allowed over 500 yards and 37 points to the 30th-ranked offense in the league.

Easy Street Sports has Baltimore as 5-point favorites with a 'total' of 40½. It is the highest 'total' in this series since 1997 (nine meetings ago).

Miami enters the contest 5-2 against the spread this season. The Ravens are 3-3-1 with both teams 4-3 to the 'under.'

Something will have to give as far as the trends go on the scoreboard total. The Dolphins have seen cashed for 'under' bettors in five of their last six road tilts. Meanwhile Baltimore is 5-1 to the high side in their last six home games.

The two teams are virtually identical in nearly every offensive and defensive statistic except for points scored. Baltimore (21.3) holds a 2.3-point advantage over Miami (19.0).

In the ultra-competitive AFC, this Sunday's 10 a.m. PT game (CBS) will go a long way for each team's playoff chances. A Miami win potentially sets the path for a Wild Card rematch from 2008.

The aforementioned '97 meeting was the last time the Dolphins won in Baltimore but if that is to change, now is the time as Miami is 13-7 in their last 20 road games and 16-5 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-03-2010, 08:12 PM

Raiders early NFL odds favorites versus Chiefs

Finally, at long last, a Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders matchup that means something. And, no, Len Dawson and Ben Davidson aren’t involved.

The surprising Chiefs are 5-2 and on top of the AFC West Division standings. The Raiders are 4-4 and on the verge of finally turning the corner.

Game time is Sunday at 1:15 p.m. (PT) in Oakland. The Raiders have been bet up from an opening NFL spread of minus one to 2 ½-point favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 40 ½.

Now 4-4 may not seem that much, but the last time Oakland was .500 in November was its Super Bowl season of 2002.

Can the Raiders erase seven years of misery punctuated by the failings of JaMarcus Russell, overhead-projector firings, coach Tom Cable punching out an assistant and Al Davis hiring a bed-and-breakfast proprietor to run his offense?

Perhaps.

The Raiders have outscored their last two foes, 92-17. They piled up 508 yards in total offense in a 59-14 victory at Denver two weeks ago and then buried Seattle, 33-3, last Sunday picking up 545 yards. It’s the first time in franchise history the Raiders have compiled back-to-back 500-yard games.

The reality, though, is the Raiders have lost 12 of the past 13 times they’ve been favored. Until dispatching Seattle at home, the Raiders had dropped their last seven following a victory by an average of 17 points.

The reality is Kansas City has won and covered during its last seven visits to the Oakland Coliseum. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the series.

The reality is the Chiefs could be the most improved team in the NFL. They are leading the league in rushing averaging 190.4 yards per game and rank fifth in scoring defense giving up 17.4 points per contest.

The Chiefs have rushed for 200 yards during their past three games. They piled up a season-high 274 rushing yards in last week’s 13-10 overtime home victory against Buffalo, although failing to cover as seven-point favorites.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones both are on pace to rush for 1,000 yards. The Chiefs have never had two 1,000-yard runners in the same season. Charles has rushed for 666 yards, averaging an impressive 6.5 yards per carry, while Jones has gained 538 yards on the ground.

Quarterback Matt Cassel has a 10-to-threee touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked only eight times. Dwayne Bowe has come on to catch five touchdowns in the last three games.

The Raiders are likely to be without their best defensive player, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. He suffered an ankle injury last week. The Raiders have a bye next week so Cable may want to give Asomugha additional rest.

The youthful but talented Chiefs defense will be looking to key on a revived Darren McFadden, who ranks seventh in rushing, has another 217 yards in receiving and has scored six touchdowns.

The problems for the Raiders are Jason Campbell doesn’t inspire confidence in the passing game, leaky pass protection and their defense ranks 26th versus the run giving up 127.4 yards per game.

Despite their recent scoring burst, there’s talk the Raiders might switch starting quarterbacks again when Bruce Gradkowski becomes fully healthy again.

A plus for Oakland is its kicking game with strong-legged punter Shane Lechler and long-range place-kicker Sebastian Janikowski.

The Chiefs have been one of the hottest pointspread teams covering seven of their last nine games.

This has been a low-scoring series. The combined average points scored per game during the past eight meetings tallies just 28.8. The ‘under’ has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series, including the last four.

The ‘under’ is 15-5-1 in the Raiders’ past 21 November games.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-04-2010, 07:30 PM

Vick, De'Sean Jackson to play Sunday vs. Colts

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-2)
at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 46.5

Injuries abound as the Colts travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis will be without TE Dallas Clark (wrist) and most likely RB Joseph Addai who is doubtful because of a shoulder injury. Indianapolis could also be missing WR Austin Collie (thumb surgery) and RB Mike Hart (ankle) who are both questionable. Collie has a better chance to play than Hart does.

The news for Philadelphia is much brighter as QB Michael Vick will return after missing five games due to a rib injury. WR De’Sean Jackson has been upgraded to probable despite missing last game with a concussion. The one negative is starting CB Ellis Hobbs is unlikely to play because of a strained hip flexor, which is not good news when you face Peyton Manning.

******* take:With injuries to Addai and Hart, Donald Brown will get the full workload of carries despite his lingering hamstring problems. Brown has just 97 yards on 32 carries (3.0 YPC) with one touchdown this season. Luckily for Indianapolis, Manning is fully healthy. He is averaging 306 passing YPG with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Collie leads the team with six TD catches and has 44 receptions on just 54 targets. WR Reggie Wayne continues to be Manning’s favorite target, and is tied for fourth in the NFL with 641 receiving yards. On the defensive side of the ball, Indianapolis ranks 28th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 133 YPG.

The poor Colts rush defense plays right into the strength of Vick who is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. LeSean McCoy has also run the ball effectively with 477 rushing yards and a 4.5 YPC to go along with five touchdowns. He also has 38 catches (27 in the past four weeks) out of the backfield for another 293 yards. Jackson helps stretch the field with a 20.8 yards-per-reception average this year, but hasn’t done much in his past three games (6 rec., 77 yds, 1 TD). The Eagles have taken care of the football, leading the NFC with fewest giveaways (nine) and sporting a plus-7 turnover margin this season.

The Eagles have lost five of seven ATS at home, while the Colts are only 1-3 ATS on the road this year. Although they have only played four times since 1996, Indy has won each of the four meetings by 22 points or more. The FoxSheets show why Indianapolis will win again on Sunday.

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. (39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +21.4 units. Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend likes the Over.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (51-20 since 1983.) (71.8%, +29 units. Rating = 3*).

INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 30.6, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-04-2010, 07:32 PM

NFL Streakers

In StatFox’s 2010 Football Annual Edge Guide, we broke down the records of streaking teams both ATS and SU over the past five seasons. While wagering on streaks to end, both winning and losing, has been roughly a 50-50 proposition in most situations, there is one set of circumstances that is a proven winner.
Entering this year, teams that had lost four or more consecutive games ATS at any point during the past five seasons went 51-36 ATS (59%) in their next game. So far this season, there have been two such situations and both of them were successful. New Orleans entered its Week 6 matchup at Tampa Bay losers of four straight ATS. The Saints were easy winners, trouncing the Buccaneers 31-6 as five-point road favorites. The following week, Green Bay put an end to its four-game ATS losing streak by topping division rival Minnesota 28-24 as a three-point home favorite.

Week 9 presents us with two more of these situations as Cincinnati and Dallas have both lost four straight ATS (and SU). Denver is in the same boat, but the Broncos have a bye (hosting Kansas City next week). The Bengals are home underdogs against division rival Pittsburgh. The ATS record for home underdogs in these streaking situations is an incredible 15-5 (75%). Meanwhile, the disappointing Cowboys are a significant underdog at Green Bay. The FoxSheets offer a similar angle that supports the cause for the Cowboys:

Play On - Any team (Dallas) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record. (22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 3*).

There is a streaking angle developing this season that did not surface in the five-year study. This involves teams that have lost five or more consecutive games SU. So far this season, teams in these situations are a perfect 4-0 ATS.

After starting their seasons 0-5 SU, both Carolina and San Francisco broke into the win column while also winning ATS in their respective sixth games of the season. While still winless at 0-7, Buffalo has covered the spread in both of its last two contests, both overtime losses by field goals. The Bills will try keep this streaking angle flawless in Week 9 when they host favored Chicago, losers of two straight both ATS and SU. The FoxSheets show a laundry list of “Super Situations” that point toward the Bills, led by:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (Buffalo) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. (74-34 since 1983.) (68.5%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road teams (Chicago) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. (24-4 since 1983.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).

We’ll continue to track these streaky situations as we move into the second half of the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-04-2010, 08:03 PM

Investment return on NFL wagering

One of the mandates of our logic-based solution is to provide the information to its customers (and, incidentally, to the developers themselves) that will allow them to make a positive rate of return on their NFL wagers. So maybe it’s time to understand exactly how the rate of return is calculated and why the developers view football wagering as simply another opportunity within their portfolio of more traditional investments.

First, for qualifications one of the developers of our product is a Professional Accountant who earns his livelihood by investing in the financial markets. With the onset of recessionary economic conditions that began in 2007, market opportunities have diminished and investment rates of return have dwindled. Presently, a one year CD (Certificate of Deposit) yields around 1% annually.

Rate of return calculation

The rate of return is a simple calculation. Say you invest $1,000 in the CD noted above. After one year, it has appreciated to $1,010. There are three items here:

•Your money at risk (MaR = $1,000)
•The term (T = 365 days)
•The increase in value (VI = $10)
The formula for arriving at the rate of return (RoR) is:

RoR = VI / MaR X 365 / T --- as shown by our simple CD example:

RoR = $10 / $1,000 X 365 / 365 = 1%

Of course, being savvy investors, we’re not about to put all our money into CD’s.

There are much higher yield opportunities out there in individual stocks, mutual funds, exchange traded funds, bonds (government and corporate), as well as fancier instruments such as options and derivatives. One of the keys to successful investing is diversification – don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Done prudently, there’s always room for investments that are more risky than, say, a CD but give a much higher rate of return.

Applying the rate of return to wagering

To make money at NFL wagering you have to be disciplined. You should try to bet the same amount of money on each of many bets throughout the season. You should use a tool that logically and empirically selects game winners against the spread. One of the major advantages of investing in NFL wagers is that, if you get out the gate with reasonable success, you are playing with house money for the remainder or a good part of the season. This is one component of obtaining a high rate of return.

Let’s take a simple example. Say you deposit $500 at your favorite online gambling site on September 1, 2010. You win three out of five $100 wagers in Week 1. With a line of 110, you now have $572.70 on deposit. In Week 2 you win two out of three $100 wagers. With a line of 110, you now have $654.50 on deposit. And so on, there is no longer any need to deposit funds at this site because winnings will finance future wagers – and this will continue so long as you have a winning record for the remainder of the season.

Now let’s expand our example a little further. Say that during the season you wager on 40 games and win 55% of those, ie. 22 wins and 18 losses. You will have lost $1,800 and (at a line of 110) won $2,000 (22 X $100 / 110). You’re in the black $200 and, on December 31, 2010, you withdraw your $700 from the gambling site.

The next step is to calculate our famous Rate of Return. Look at the formula:

RoR = $200 / $500 X 365 / 122 = 120% --- (better than 1% on a CD)

Maximizing the rate of return

The above example is pretty straight forward. In fact, you may be able to achieve a much higher RoR. For instance, if winning games occur in the earlier part of the season, you may be able to make an interim withdrawal from the gambling site. This will enhance your RoR because there will be a lower amount of MaR (money at risk) for a portion of season.

Also, if you are able to get a line of, say, 105 instead of 110 for some of the games your RoR will increase dramatically. Similarly, by site shopping, you can often get better spreads than at your favorite site, which will increase your likelihood of winning. And, of course, a winning percentage of 55% is quite modest – you should be able to find a logic-based product that will be able to do better than that.

On the negative side, if you choose to follow the lead of the NFLProPicker developers, your RoR will go down in the first instance. We fund four sites so that we will be able to choose the ones that have the best spreads and lines. Result, more funding, less return. Of course we wouldn’t be using multiple sites unless we were convinced that the increase in RoR via better spreads and lines would more than offset the increased funding costs.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-04-2010, 08:04 PM

Seahawks host Giants as 7-point underdogs

Seattle sits on top of the NFC West standings at 4-3. That’s more victories than Minnesota and Dallas combined. But are the Seahawks really any good?

There are doubters. Some of them make NFL odds for a living as they’ve made Seattle seven-point home underdogs to the New York Giants in their Sunday 1:05 p.m. PT matchup.

Seattle has yet to lose in three games at noisy Qwest Field this season. The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 home contests. Matt Hasselbeck is likely to start despite being sacked eight times last week in a 33-3 road loss to Oakland and suffering a mild concussion.

But this line probably has a chance to go higher rather than lower. It’s not just that the Giants are 5-3, have won their last four games and are rested following a bye.

There’s a strong suspicion the Seahawks are imposters, not nearly good enough to be a game above .500.

The reasoning for this is the Seahawks’ soft schedule, Seattle being outscored by 17 points on the season and outgained by 1.1 yards per play.

Perhaps no other team has made as many changes as the Seahawks have this year under new head coach Pete Carroll. There have been more than 200 transactions with more to follow as Seattle is banged-up again in its offensive and defensive lines.

Seattle’s run defense figures to take a big hit with the loss of linemen Red Bryant and Colin Cole, both of whom were put on injured reserve ending their seasons. That’s good news for Ahmad Bradshaw, who ranks fourth in rushing with 708 yards. His 5.28 yards per carry ranks fourth, too, among the top 30 rushers.

The Giants also possess three productive young wide receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Nicks leads the way with eight touchdowns and 525 receiving yards. Eli Manning ranks fourth in touchdown passes with 14.

Seattle has a small but quick defense. The Seahawks are yielding just a 54 percent completion rate and have allowed only eight touchdown passes.

The Giants have already knocked out five quarterbacks, including Jay Cutler, Tony Romo and Shaun Hill. That’s bad news for the 35-year-old Hasselbeck and his backup Charlie Whitehurst.

The Seahawks hope to get star rookie offensive left tackle Russell Okung back after he missed last Sunday because of a sprained ankle. However, the Seahawks’ disheveled offensive line suffered two more injuries with Tyler Polumbus and Ben Hamilton each leaving during the Raiders game.

Seattle’s offensive line hasn’t been opening too many holes as the Seahawks average 88.6 yards rushing, which ranks 27th. The Seahawks aren’t at full strength at wide receiver either. Rookie Golden Tate is out with an ankle injury and Mike Williams isn’t 100 percent due to a knee injury.

New York is just 3-6 ATS following a bye and traveling cross-country. The Giants, though, are 18-9 straight-up and ATS in their last 27 away contests.

The Giants have won and covered in their last two road matchups beating Houston, 34-10, as three-point underdogs and defeating Dallas, 41-35, as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. New York outgained the Cowboys, 497-254, and led 38-20 late in the fourth quarter. The combined 76 points flew ‘over’ the 45-point total.

New York also has covered in nine of its last 11 games versus NFC West opponents.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 13 of the Giants’ past 16 games against NFC foes. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in New York’s last five road games. Seattle is 4-1-1 to the ‘under’ in its last six home contests.

There is a 70 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the 40s and five mph winds.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-04-2010, 08:05 PM

NFL odds favor Packers by 9 versus Cowboys

Bizarre as it may seem, only the winless Buffalo Bills have a worse record than the 1-6 Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys, who have the worst spread mark in the NFL at 1-6 ATS, travel to Lambeau Field to take on Green Bay Sunday at 5:30 p.m. PT with NBC televising.

It’s another crucial test for the Cowboys, facing life without injured Tony Romo. NFL oddsmakers don’t think much of Dallas’ chances. The Packers are nine-point favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 45.

This is the largest Green Bay has been favored against the Cowboys since 1989. When the teams last met in November 2009, Dallas was a three-point road favorite. The Packers won, 17-7, with the combined 24 points going ‘under’ the 47-point total.

Now, in just one year, there’s a 12-point line difference. Is it justified?

Green Bay, 5-3, has won and covered in its last two games defeating Minnesota and the New York Jets, 9-0, last week as 6 ½-point road ‘dogs. But the Packers’ high-powered offense of a year ago has yet to kick in.

The Packers set a team record for points scored in a season during 2009, while producing a 4,000-yard passer in Aaron Rodgers and 1,000-yard rusher in Ryan Grant. This season, though, Green Bay ranks a mediocre 16th in total offense and 14th in scoring averaging 22 points a game.

Rodgers is just 17th in the passer ratings, although he has the fifth-most passing yards with 2,011. Grant is out for the season, which has severely weakened Green Bay’s ground attack.

The Packers won’t have injured Donald Driver (quadriceps), their second-leading receiver in back of Greg Jennings. The Packers already are without play-making tight end Jermichael Finley, who is out for the season with a knee injury.

Dallas, though, is a highly-disappointing 27th in scoring defense allowing 26.7 points per contest despite having all but one returning starter from last year’s playoff team.

Head coach Wade Phillips, who doubles as Dallas’ defensive coordinator, is under heavy fire. The Cowboys have committed 11 or more penalties in a game three times this season and have a minus-five turnover ratio.

Jon Kitna didn’t play bad in his first start replacing Romo last week at home against Jacksonville. The 38-year-old completed 34-of-49 passes for 379 yards and a touchdown.

Jacksonville, though, took advantage of four interceptions to upset the Cowboys, 35-17, as 6 ½-point ‘dogs. Three of Kitna’s interceptions bounced off the hands of his receivers.

The Packers rank fourth in scoring defense giving up 17 points a game after posting the league’s first shutout last Sunday. Green Bay has come up with 24 sacks and 12 interceptions, both of which rank No. 3 in the league, despite a cluster injury problem at safety and linebacker.

The Cowboys haven’t received good play from their offense line. Phillips is hoping to get back injured guards Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland. Felix Jones is the Cowboys’ leading ground-gainer. He has a combined 443 yards rushing and receiving yards. He hurt his ankle last week, but is expected to play.

Kitna has numerous excellent targets to throw to, including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and tight end Jason Witten. Austin ranks fourth in receiving yards with 641, but also is tied for the lead in dropped passes with six.

Dallas has covered in 13 of its last 17 games in November.

The home team has covered eight of the last nine times in the series. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the series. The ‘over’ has cashed 15 of the past 22 times the Packers have been a home favorite.

Green Bay has a bye next week. The Cowboys play at the New York Giants next Sunday.

A clear night is expected with temperatures in the low 40s and only a slight breeze.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-07-2010, 12:19 PM

Sunday, November 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +5.5 500
Detroit - Over 41.5 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +9.5 500
Atlanta -

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +5 500
Baltimore - Over 40.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -3.5 500
Cleveland - Under 43.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +7.5 500
Minnesota - Under 42.5 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 500
Buffalo -

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Houston +3 500
Houston - Over 49.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -6 500
Carolina - Under 40.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +7.5 500
Seattle -

Indianapolis - 4:15 PM ET Indianapolis +3 500
Philadelphia -

Kansas City - 4:15 PM ET Oakland +1 500
Oakland - Under 40.5 500

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Green Bay -7 500
Green Bay - Over 45.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 11-07-2010, 01:37 PM

Chargers low on receivers at Houston

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (3-5)
at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -3, Total: 49.5

The Chargers look for their first road win of the season when they travel to Houston to take on the Texans. QB Philip Rivers should be licking his chops at the thought of bringing the league’s top passing offense (315 YPG) against the league’s worst pass defense (299.4 YPG). But Rivers will not have all his weapons at his disposal. His favorite target, TE Antonio Gates will be a game-time decision due to plantar fascia, and three of the top four wideouts on the team are all out for Sunday’s game. Malcom Floyd (513 rec. yds) and Legedu Naanee (181 rec. yds) both have hamstring problems while Craig “Buster” Davis (259 rec. yds) was placed on I.R. with a groin injury.

******* take:
What a mess for San Diego whose only healthy receivers are Patrick Crayton, Seyi Ajirotutu, Gary Banks and newly-signed Kelley Washington. If Gates can’t go, it could be a long day for the Chargers. Gates leads the NFL with nine touchdowns and ranks third in the league with 663 receiving yards. The good news is that the Chargers finally got their running game going last week, gaining 156 yards on the ground in the win over Tennessee. Mike Tolbert, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles each rushed for 40-plus yards, which snapped a three-game team streak of rushing for fewer than 100 yards. San Diego leads the AFC in giveaways (19) and has a conference-worst turnover rating of minus-8.

The Texans are just 2-4-1 ATS this year including 0-3 ATS in their past three home games. Despite all the talk about the pass defense being bad, their run defense has been excellent with only one game of 120-plus rushing yards allowed (Kansas City). Offensively, WR Andre Johnson (ankle) and TE Owen Daniels (hamstring) are not 100 percent. Johnson is expected to play on Sunday, but Daniels will be a game-time decision. Johnson has 15 catches for 244 yards and two touchdowns in his past two games.

Despite having outgained opponents by an average of 195 yards in four road games, the Chargers remain winless away from home (0-4 SU and ATS). But they are also 3-0 against the Texans franchise, winning those games by an average of 17.7 PPG. These two FoxSheets trends show why San Diego will win again on Sunday.

SAN DIEGO is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992. The average score was SAN DIEGO 28.4, OPPONENT 18.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Gary Kubiak is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game as the coach of HOUSTON. The average score was HOUSTON 20.2, OPPONENT 32.4 - (Rating = 4*).

These FoxSheets trends like the Over.

Kubiak is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points as the coach of HOUSTON.The average score was HOUSTON 26.3, OPPONENT 26.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Over - Road teams against the total (SAN DIEGO) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (51-21 since 1983.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-07-2010, 01:38 PM

Harvin game-time decision vs. Cardinals

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-4)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Minnesota -7.5, Total: 40.5

Vikings WR Percy Harvin could play through his ankle injury when Minnesota hosts Arizona on Sunday. Harvin will be a game-time decision. He rolled the ankle on his first reception in last week’s loss at New England, but was able to return to the game. Minnesota certainly needs Harvin in the lineup after cutting Randy Moss earlier this week. Brett Favre is also expected to start despite a lacerated chin that took him out of the Patriots game in the fourth quarter. Favre’s lingering ankle injury was not a problem in last Sunday’s game and should not hinder him too much against the Cardinals. Derek Anderson will start under center and will have full complement of players as WRs Steve Breaston (knee), Early Doucet (groin) and RB Beanie Wells (knee) will all play in Sunday’s game.

******* take:
Anderson was tabbed the starter based on last week’s performance (16-of-24, 234 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT), which bettered rookie Max Hall’s (8-for-16, 71 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT) in the loss to Tampa Bay. Neither quarterback has been good this year. Anderson has a 62.8 QB rating with a 53.5% completion rate, four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Hall’s rating is a comical 41.0 with a 50.7% completion rate, one touchdown and five picks. But not all the blame in Arizona goes to the struggling quarterbacks. The team ranks 25th in rushing yards (93 YPG) and is allowing the fourth-most yards on the ground (143 YPG) in the NFL. Arizona has been brutal on the road recently, getting outscored 104-27 in three straight losses.

Harvin leads the team in targets (52), catches (31), receiving yards (393) and receiving touchdowns (3). No other wide receiver still on Minnesota’s roster has 10 catches or 100 receiving yards for the season. Despite all the publicity around Favre (7 TD, 11 INT, 69.8 QB rating this year), RB Adrian Peterson has carried the football at least 18 times in every game this season. He will look to redeem himself from his dreadful 13-carry, 19-yard output in the 30-17 loss at Arizona last season.

Including the postseason, the Vikings are 11-1 in their past 12 home games, including a 7-1 ATS mark in the past eight Metrodome contests. The Cardinals have lost the past four meetings at Minnesota, but the final margin has been closer each time (24, 20, 17 and 5-point loss in 2006). The FoxSheets think Minnesota will win the game, but Arizona will not lose by more than a touchdown:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (71-31 since 1983.) (69.6%, +36.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. (63-29 since 1983.) (68.5%, +31.1 units. Rating = 2*).

The past four Vikings games and five of the past six Cardinals games have surpassed the Total, and these FoxSheets coaching trends expect this one to go Over as well:

Brad Childress is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of MINNESOTA. The average score was MINNESOTA 25.8, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Ken Whisenhunt is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score was ARIZONA 28.8, OPPONENT 27.5 - (Rating = 2*).

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