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[StarDust Bum]

Stafford will return to action against Washington

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WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-3)
at DETROIT LIONS (1-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Detroit -3, Total: 44.5

Detroit will have Matthew Stafford back under center when it hosts Washington on Sunday. Stafford hasn’t played since injuring his shoulder in Week 1. The Redskins will also have their starter, Donovan McNabb, whose hamstring isn’t bothering him enough to keep him off the field.

******* take:
Stafford will do his best to keep the ball out of the hands of Redskins CB De’Angelo Hall who had an NFL-record-tying four interceptions last week, including one returned for the game-winning touchdown, in last week’s 17-14 victory at Chicago. Stafford threw for 241 yards and touchdown against Washington last year, marking his first career NFL win. For Stafford to be successful, he needs to find WR Calvin Johnson early and often. Johnson has 15 receptions for 286 yards and three touchdowns in his past three games. It also helps that Washington ranks second-to-last in pass defense this year, allowing 292 YPG.

The Redskins will be better served running the football. RB Ryan Torain has two consecutive 100-yard rushing games, averaging 5.5 YPC during this stretch. Torain will be facing Detroit’s 27th-ranked run defense surrendering 139 YPG this season. McNabb has struggled this season with just six touchdowns and seven picks this year, but should find success against a below-average Lions pass defense allowing 224 YPG.

The Redskins are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight road games and these FoxSheets trends give two more reasons to pick Washington.

WASHINGTON is 32-12 ATS (72.7%, +18.8 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992. The average score was WASHINGTON 24.2, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home favorites (DETROIT) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record. (22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets show another highly-rated trend favoring the Over:

Mike Shanahan is 33-10 OVER (76.7%, +22.0 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Shanahan 26.0, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bills top CB McGee hopeful to play at KC
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BUFFALO BILLS (0-6)
at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Kansas City -7.5, Total: 46

The winless Bills are hopeful their top cornerback Terrence McGee can play Sunday at Kansas City after missing the past three games with a pinched nerve in his left leg. Chiefs WR Dexter McCluster will likely not play due to a high ankle sprain.

******* take:
Considering the Chiefs’ run-first mentality, neither of these news items are of particular importance to the outcome of this game. McGee is an excellent cover man, but QB Matt Cassel will spend most of his time handing the ball off to Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Charles has 489 rushing yards on 6.0 YPC while Jones has back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown in each contest. Kansas City leads the NFL with 177 rushing YPG and the Bills have the league’s worst run-stop unit, surrendering 175 YPG on the ground.

Buffalo, on the other hand, will look to air it out on Sunday. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick ranks second behind Peyton Manning in NFL quarterback rating (102.2) this season. He threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s overtime loss to Baltimore and connected with WR Steve Johnson eight times for 158 yards and a touchdown in that game. Lee Evans scored the other three TD against the Ravens and has 11 catches for 192 yards and four scores in his past two games.

The Bills have beaten K.C. in three straight games (both SU and ATS), and despite losing six of seven SU on the road, they’re 4-2 ATS during that span. The FoxSheets provide another strong reason to back Buffalo to keep this game within a touchdown spread.

Play On - Road teams (BUFFALO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Under:

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. (79-36 since 1983.) (68.7%, +39.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Jason Campbell to start Sunday against Seattle

SEATTLE AND RAIDERS (3-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: Oakland -2.5, Total: 42.5

Seattle tries for its third straight win when it visits Oakland on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders are riding high after blowing out Denver 59-14 on the road, and their running game is clicking with 328 yards against the Broncos. With Bruce Gradkowski still out with a shoulder injury, Jason Campbell will be the starting quarterback again versus Seattle.

******* take:
Campbell actually has a slightly higher QB rating than Gradkowski this year, 73.1 to 71.1. Campbell threw for 204 yards and two touchdowns in the blowout at Denver last week. The Raiders have rushed for at least 100 yards in each of their first seven games, thanks mostly to Darren McFadden. The third-year pro has rushed for at least 95 yards in each of four full games this year, missing 2½ games due to a hamstring injury. But he certainly looked healthy last week with 165 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries.

Despite boasting the league’s second-best run defense this season (78 YPG), the Seahawks haven’t seen much of a challenge on the ground. Only one opponent so far currently ranks in the NFL’s top half of rushing offenses. Despite its 4-2 record Seattle has also struggled on the offensive end, ranking 27th in the NFL in yardage (294 YPG).

While the Raiders don’t hold a huge home-field advantage (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS over the past two seasons), Seattle is just 2-9 SU and ATS on the road over the past two years. However, these two FoxSheets trends favor Seattle on Sunday.

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. (39-13 since 1983.) (75%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Tom Cable is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of OAKLAND. The average score was OAKLAND 8.6, OPPONENT 25.7 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Under based on this coaching trend:

Pete Carroll is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Carroll 17.0, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cards' Wells, Hall to start against Tampa Bay

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-2)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: Arizona -3, Total: 39

The Cardinals named Beanie Wells their starting running back for Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay. With rookie Max Hall expected to start at quarterback despite suffering a concussion last week, Wells will be the biggest key to Arizona’s success on Sunday.

******* take:
Although Tim Hightower gained a good chunk of yardage (298 yards on 5.7 YPC), he also lost three fumbles this year, which has prompted head coach Ken Whisenhunt to give Hightower fewer touches. Wells has had a poor sophomore season, with just 183 rushing yards and a 3.5 YPC average in four games this season. As a rookie, Wells gained 793 yards on the ground with seven touchdowns. Hall has yet to throw a touchdown in 59 pass attempts this year, but he has thrown three to the other team. Last week he was 4-for-16 for 36 yards and one interception at Seattle.

Wells also benefits from the fact that Tampa Bay has been atrocious trying to stop the run this year, ranking second-to-last in the league with 158 YPG allowed. The offense has also been pretty bad, averaging just 19.3 PPG. Only three NFL teams have a lower scoring average than the Bucs.

The Buccaneers have played well on the road of late, winning four in a row (SU and ATS) and six of their past seven ATS. However, these two FoxSheets trends favor Arizona on Sunday.

Ken Whisenhunt is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score was ARIZONA 31.1, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 2*).

TAMPA BAY is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was TAMPA BAY 19.9, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Five of the past six games in this series have gone Under the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also leans towards the Under:

Play Under - Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - average rushing team (95 to 125 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game), after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. (24-3 since 1983.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Hunter tries to even World Series at 2-2

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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
at TEXAS RANGERS

World Series Game 4, San Francisco leads series 2-1
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT, Line: Texas -145, San Francisco +135, Total: 9

After an inspired effort in Game 3, the Rangers look to even the series with Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA) on the mound Sunday night while 21-year-old Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00 ERA) gets the call for San Francisco.

Hunter will be working on 11 days rest after starting Game 4 of the ALCS back on October 19. The right-hander lasted just 3.1 innings while surrendering three runs on five hits. He took the loss in his only other playoff start this year, Game 4 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay, where he allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits over four innings. He struck out seven in that outing. Hunter has fared well at home during the regular season, going 7-0 with a 3.06 ERA.

Bumgarner will be making his fourth appearance of the postseason after throwing two innings of scoreless relief in the series-clinching Game 6 win over Philadelphia. His most recent start came in Game 4 of that series where the left-hander yielded three runs on six hits in 4.2 innings of work. His postseason ERA sits at 3.55. Bumgarner was tremendous on the road in the regular season this year, going 6-3 with a 1.91 ERA. The Giants have now won the past five games that he has appeared, including four in a row.

The FoxSheets like Texas to even the series in Game 4:

Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - average AL hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70). (85-52 over the last 5 seasons.) (62%, +39.6 units. Rating = 3*).

TEXAS is 34-12 (73.9%, +15.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.8, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Texas Rangers try to even World Series in Game 4


The Texas Rangers are back in the hunt. Down two-love in the World Series, Texas erased any sweep dreams the San Francisco Giants might have had with a 4-2 triumph in Game 3 on Saturday in front of a boisterous Rangers home crowd.

Saturday's victory also will keep Texas skipper Ron Washington from having to make a tough decision about his Game 4 starter. Washington insisted before Game 3 he was not bringing Lee back on three-days rest, but one has to wonder how true that was, It's a moot point now, however.

Sunday's contest will be a battle of youngsters with the Rangers sending 24-year-old right-hander Tommy Hunter (17-7, 3.85) to the hill to face San Fran's 21-year-old rookie southpaw Madison Bumgarner (13-7, 3.05).

MLB oddsmakers have laden Bumgarner and Hunter with a minus money line just once in the four starts the young hurlers have combined to make in the postseason to date. That was a minus 110 price on Hunter at home in Game 4 of the ALDS versus the Rays and their rookie righty, Wade Davis.

Hunter was plus 145 on the road in Game 4 of the ALCS versus the Yanks; the Giants have been priced at plus 120 on the road in Atlanta during the NLDS and even money at home in Game 3 of the NLCS versus Philly in Bumgarner's two starts.

Game 3 saw Texas closer Neftali Feliz finish what Colby Lewis started. Lewis worked into the eighth for his third postseason victory. Feliz fanned two in the final frame to nail down the first World Series win in Rangers franchise history. All six runs in the first 'under' of this Fall Classic came home via the long ball with Rangers No. 9 hitter Mitch Moreland's three-run job in the second the telling blow.

San Francisco used big innings to take a 2-0 lead into Game 3, but never could put together any real threat for a big frame against Lewis on Saturday. The Giants exploded for six runs off Lee in the fifth inning of Game 1 en route to an 11-7 win on a plus 115 MLB money line. San Fran then busted out with seven runs in the eighth inning of Game 2 to break open what was a 2-0 pitchers duel to then between Matt Cain and CJ Wilson. It was a season-high single-inning scoring binge for the Giants who closed as minus 115 favorites for the contest.

This will be Bumgarner's third postseason start with the Giants winning the previous two. He last pitched in San Francisco's clinching NLCS Game 6 win at Philly, tossing two scoreless relief frames in the Giants' 3-2 win. Texas hitters have never faced the former first-round pick out of North Carolina.

Bumgarner will be the fifth-youngest starting pitcher in World Series history at 21 years, 91 days old. The rookie southpaw will have a rookie catching him in Buster Posey who is just the 11th rookie catcher to start in a World Series. My quick research shows it's just the second time since the Eisenhower Administration an all-rookie battery started a World Series game.

Game 2 of the 1966 Series saw Jim Palmer start for the Orioles with Andy Etchebarren as his backstop. Palmer was still more than a week away from turning 21 in his World Series debut, Etchebarren a few months younger than Posey is now to make that pair the youngest-ever battery tandem from what I can tell.

Posey and Bumgarner are no doubt hoping for the same outcome as Palmer and Etchebarren enjoyed, a 6-0 shutout win over the Dodgers.

The Rangers will be seeing a starting lefty for the seventh time this postseason counting last night's battle with Sanchez. Texas beat Tampa Bay's David Price twice in the ALDS and came home a winner against Andy Pettitte and the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALCS. New York won both of C.C. Sabathia's starts versus the Rangers, though the Texas Lineup did rough up the big lefty in Game 1 of the ALCS before losing the game late.

Giants hitters have also never seen Hunter as a group, though both Pat Burrell and Cody Ross have faced the former Crimson Tide star while hitting for other teams. It will be Hunter's third postseason appearance with Texas splitting his previous two starts.

Mike Winters, a veteran of 22 MLB seasons and 11 previous playoff series, will be under the mask for Game 4. The California native split scoreboard totals during the regular season, 16-16-1. He worked the deciding Game 4 of the NLDS in Atlanta when the Giants topped the Braves by a 3-2 count. Bumgarner was the winning pitcher for San Francisco in that contest that finished 'under' the 7-run number.

All signs point to a great Halloween evening in Arlington, Texas as far as the weather goes. Thermometers should push their way into the low-to-mid 80s under clear skies during the day with the 5:20 p.m. PT start time likely to find the temperature in the mid-70s.

Game 5 on Monday is set for a 4:57 p.m. PT first pitch. Tim Lincecum will get the ball from manager Bruce Bochy for San Francisco with Lee slated for Texas.

[StarDust Bum]

Utah Jazz visit OKC in Sunday NBA betting

Almost half of Russell Westbrook’s 22.5 PPG come from the FT line.
After starting the season with consecutive victories against Central Division squads, the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder roll home Sunday to host a Utah Jazz team searching for its first win and NBA spread cover. The Thunder are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 series meetings against the Jazz, including going 3-1 both SU and ATS last season.

Oklahoma City is off Saturday’s thrilling 105-104 victory at Detroit, failing to cover as a five-point road favorite. The combined 209 points soared above the 195 ½-point closing total, which enabled the ‘over’ to cash in the Thunder’s first two games.

Scott Brooks’ troops opened the current campaign with a 106-95 victory against the Chicago Bulls as seven-point home favorites.

Marching to the foul line much more than the opposition was one of the consistent themes in both Oklahoma City victories. The Thunder got to the free throw line 47 times and made 38 in the home win against the Bulls. Chicago was just 13-of-22 from the charity stripe.

It is rare in the NBA when the road team receives more free throw chances than the home team, and even more unusual when there is a wide discrepancy. But that’s exactly what happened against Detroit, as Oklahoma City was 37-of-44 at the charity stripe compared to 16-of-20 for the Pistons.

So, constantly driving to the basket in its first two games has resulted in Oklahoma City strutting to the charity stripe 95 times compared to just 42 for the opposition.

Though Kevin Durant led the Thunder against the Pistons with 30 points, he was just 9-of-24 from the field. However, last year’s scoring champ was 11-of-14 from the charity stripe and contributed eight rebounds.

Jeff Green, who notched the winning basket on a driving layup with 2.5 seconds remaining in regulation, added 21 points. Russell Westbrook had 17 points and handed out 11 assists while running the offense from the point guard position.

The Thunder won the game despite shooting just 38 percent from the field compared to 47 percent for the Pistons. But the Thunder out-rebounded Detroit, 59-49, and forced the Pistons into 18 turnovers.

Utah, which usually prides itself on playing some tight defense NBA Basketball Defensive Stats - DonBest.com, has begun the campaign by allowing 110 points in each of its first two games.

The Jazz dropped a 110-88 decision at Denver in their season opener as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The combined 198 points dipped ‘under’ the 209 ½-point closing total.

Utah then returned home the very next night only to be scorched by the Suns, 110-94, as a 7 ½-point home favorite. The combined 204 points again ducked ‘under’ the 209-point closing total.

The Jazz began their home opener by sleepwalking through the opening minutes against the Suns. A 14-5 deficit soon became a 16-point halftime disadvantage, as Phoenix pounded away from the perimeter and easily glided through a Jazz defense that was often lost in transition.

Al Jefferson scored a game-high 20 points and grabbed nine rebounds to lead Utah, while Paul Millsap added 19 points and 13 rebounds.

Utah struggled from the field for the second consecutive game. The Jazz shot just 42.9 percent (36-of-84), while Deron Williams and Jefferson combined to connect on only 11 of their 30 attempts.

The Thunder captured three of the four meetings against the Jazz last season, with the ‘over’ cashing on three occasions.

Oklahoma City won both games on its home floor, one as a favorite and one as a dog. The first home game saw the Thunder register an 87-86 win as three-point home underdogs. That was the lone meeting to dip ‘under’ the closing total.

The Thunder were installed as three-point favorites in the next home meeting against the Jazz and covered the spread en route to a 119-111 victory.

Utah will be off until next Wednesday when it returns home to host the Raptors. Oklahoma City will play back-to-back road games on Wednesday and Thursday against the Clippers and Blazers, respectively.