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**Kaptain** · 10-29-2010, 07:09 PM

gl to ya bum

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 07:15 PM

Back-to-back NBA trends for this weekend

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The handicapping of back-to-back games in the NBA can sometimes be quite stressful on bettors. Take just this week for instance, as the reigning Eastern Conference champion Celtics dominated the new-look Heat at home, then went on the road the next day only to lose outright to Cleveland as 4.5-point favorites. The Celtics took the majority of the betting action in what was the most-bet NBA game on the board Wednesday night. So do all teams struggle when it comes to playing two games in two days? Let’s take a look at a few teams who will be on the court Friday and Saturday night.
The KNICKS make the short trip to Boston Friday to take on the Celtics then head home Saturday for a date with the Trail Blazers. Now, the Knicks certainly weren’t good in any situation last year, going 29-53 straight up and 37-43-2 against the spread. When playing the second half of a back-to-back, they were even worse, going 4-14 SU and 8-10 ATS. The Knicks were especially bad when playing on two consecutive nights during the first two weeks of the season last year, going 0-4 SU and ATS as they lost both the front and back end of two back-to-backs. New York was just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS when returning home after playing a road game the night before. Going back to 2008-2009, the Knicks were just 1-3 ATS in that situation, indicating a play on Portland Saturday night.

Now let’s look at how a perennial playoff contender performs in back-to-backs.

The NUGGETS topped the Northwest Division for the second consecutive season last year. They’ll be in action Friday in New Orleans and on Saturday in Houston. Luckily for them, they don’t have to play every game on no rest. The Nuggets went 10-12 SU in the second half of back-to-backs last year but were a dismal 6-14-2 ATS (30%). When the back-to-back consisted of two straight road games, Denver was awful in the second game, going 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS. Dating back to 2008-2009, the Nuggets covered 60% of their games. When playing the second half of a back-to-back, that number dropped to 52%. When the back-to-back consisted of two road games, they covered the second game just 33% of the time (2-4 in six games). All these trends support picking Houston on Saturday.

However, not all teams slump when playing on consecutive nights.

Take the BOBCATS for example, who will host Indiana Friday before traveling to Milwaukee Saturday. Charlotte was an impressive 14-8-1 ATS (64%) last season when playing on no rest and covered six of 11 road games after playing at home the night before. Last year was no fluke as the Bobcats were also profitable in ’08-’09 in the second game of back-to-backs, going 13-8 ATS. Look for Charlotte to at least cover against the Bucks on Saturday.

The lesson here is that not all teams play true to form when playing consecutive nights. Keep that in mind as 13 teams will be in action both Friday and Saturday this weekend.

**The Boomaster** · 10-29-2010, 07:25 PM

gl bum

**bryce** · 10-29-2010, 08:01 PM

Good luck stardust!

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:06 PM

NBA odds have Heat by six versus Magic
By: Barry Daniels | Thursday, October 28, 2010

The defending Southeast Division champion Orlando Magic will participate in the second part of a back-to-back situation Friday night when they make the short trip to Miami to meet the Heat. Orlando played its season opener Thursday at home against Washington.

Pete Korner, who establishes the betting line for the majority of Nevada sports books as owner of the Sports Club, made Miami a six-point home favorite in his overnight numbers. The ‘total’ opened at 189 points.

The Magic finished on top of the Southeast Division last season thanks to a 59-23 straight-up record, but lost to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals. Orlando was also a fine 46-34-2 against the spread, including 22-18-1 ATS on the road.

The ‘under’ was 47-34-1 in Orlando’s 82 regular season games last year, which included the ‘under’ cashing in 26 of 41 road dates.

Dwight Howard is not only Orlando’s center, but also the centerpiece of the offense and defense. The big man led the team with an 18.3 PPG average, and also hauled down a team-leading 13.2 rebounds per game.

Howard’s huge inside presence, which forced the opposition to double and triple-team him, had a lot to do with Orlando shooting many uncontested three-point shots. As a result, the Magic had a league-record 841 trifectas last season. They finished third in the league by shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc.

The three-point shot also helped the Magic average 102.8 PPG last season, which ranked sixth in the league. They also were fifth in rebounding at 43.2 boards per contest.

Howard clogged the middle well enough during the 2009-10 campaign to help the Magic rank fourth in defense with a 95.3 PPG average. Orlando held its opponents to a league-low 43.8 percent shooting from the field.

Though Stan Van Gundy’s crew is 12-4-1 in its last 17 series meetings against Miami, the two clubs split four matchups last season. Miami recorded a 99-98 win in the first meeting at Orlando, and also notched a 104-86 home win in the second encounter.

Orlando then captured the last two meetings, a 96-80 victory as an 11 ½-point home favorite and a 108-102 overtime triumph as a two-point road favorite. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven series gatherings.

Miami has split back-to-back road games to begin its much anticipated 2010-11 campaign. The Heat suffered an 88-80 loss Tuesday at Boston as one-point road favorites before recording a 97-87 victory the next night at Philadelphia as eight-point road favorites. Both games dipped ‘under’ the closing NBA odds number.

Dwyane Wade, who began the season with a gimpy hamstring, rebounded from a rusty opener against Boston with a game-high 30 points against the 76ers. LeBron James, after scoring 31 in the opener, settled for 16 markers in a co-pilot's role against the 76ers.

Though Chris Bosh had just 15 points, the Heat outscored Philly by 27 with him on the floor.

The attention paid to “The Big 3” will invite one of Miami’s other players to excel with open looks on many nights. James Jones relished that role in Wednesday’s win by coming off the bench to score 20 points, making 6-of-9 from three-point land.

It’s a rare occurrence in the NBA when the road team attempts more free throws than the home squad, but that’s exactly what happened in Wednesday’s win. The visiting Heat were 27-for-31 from the charity stripe, while the 76ers were just 8-of-11.

Philly out-rebounded Miami, 48-46, and had 24 assists compared to Miami’s 15 helpers. Both clubs committed 16 turnovers.

Miami, without James and Bosh last season, averaged just 96.5 PPG (ranked 25th) and shot just 45.8 percent from the field (ranked 17th). The Heat ranked 19th from beyond the arc (34.6 percent) and 19th in free throw shooting (75.2 percent).

However, the Heat sizzled on the defensive end. They ranked second in points against (94.2 PPG) and opponents’ field goal percentage (43.9 percent).

Miami goes back on the road for a Halloween match at New Jersey, while Orlando is off until next Tuesday when they travel to New York for a tussle against the Knicks.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:09 PM

Short weekend on NHL betting menu
By: Barry Daniels | Friday, October 29, 2010

It had to happen eventually. The Nashville Predators became the last NHL team to suffer a regulation loss Thursday when they were blanked by the Blues as 100 home underdogs, 3-0. The Preds will attempt to get back on track Saturday when they travel to the Motor City to take on the Detroit Red Wings.

Nashville (5-1-3) is still off to its best start since it began the 2005-06 campaign with a sparkling 8-0-1 record. The Preds will now begin a five-game road trip starting with Detroit on Saturday, but that shouldn’t concern them. Nashville is 3-0-0 on the road this season and 9-3 in its last 12 road encounters dating to last season.

However, the Predators continued their troubling trend of being outshot. Entering Thursday’s game, Nashville had been outshot by average of more than four shots per game. St. Louis peppered goaltender Pekka Rinne with 34 shots, while the Preds had 24 shots.

Despite the recent unbeaten streak, the Predators have not been proficient with the man advantage. They were 0-for-3 against the Blues and have now scored just one power play goal in their last 21 opportunities.

The ‘under’ is 18-8-1 at the hockey betting window in Nashville’s last 27 overall outings and 10-4-1 in its last 15 games against other Central Division foes.

Detroit concludes its four-game homestand in this spot. The Red Wings captured the first two games on the stand before dropping Thursday’s 4-2 decision to the Anaheim Ducks as 170 home favorites. The combined six goals skipped above the 5 ½-goal closing total, which enabled the ‘over’ to cash in Detroit’s last three games.

Detroit went 1-for-6 against the Ducks on the power play, leaving the club with at least one power play goal in each of its last seven games.

Mike Babcock’s troops are 30-9-2 in their last 41 series meetings against Nashville at Joe Louis Arena. The ‘over’ is 8-3 in the last 11 overall matchups against the Preds.

Trends and angles for some of Saturday’s other top games appear below. Note that the NHL is dark on Sunday.

Bruins at Senators
Saturday, Oct. 30 – 4:05 p.m. PT

Boston begins a three-game road trip with a stop in Ottawa before moving on to Buffalo and Washington next week. Playing in Ottawa has not been a problem for the Bruins, as they are 6-1 in their last seven trips there. The Bruins are off Thursday’s 2-0 home win against the Leafs, which was Boston’s fourth straight ‘under’ game. Bruins netminder Tim Thomas has not allowed more than one goal in any of his first five starts, which includes two shutouts.

Ottawa is playing the final game of a four-game homestand. The Senators dropped the first contest to Montreal, 3-0, before registering victories against Phoenix (5-2) and Florida (5-3). The last two games flew above the closing total, which enabled the ‘over’ to go 5-1 in Ottawa’s last six games and 7-3-1 in its last 11 home contests. The ‘over’ is also 9-3 in the last 12 series meetings against the Bruins.

Blue Jackets at Avalanche
Saturday, Oct. 30 – 6:05 p.m. PT

Columbus has captured its last three games and five of its last six outings. Each of the last three contests dipped ‘under’ the closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 7-2 in Columbus’ first nine games this season. The Blue Jackets are also a perfect 3-0 on enemy ice. Columbus dropped all four meetings against Colorado last season, getting outscored 16-7 in the process. The ‘over/under’ was split 2-2.

Colorado snapped its three-game losing skid with Thursday’s 6-5 win at Calgary as a 125 road underdog. The combined 11 goals soared above the 5 ½-goal closing total. That enabled the ‘over’ to cash in the eight of the Avs’ first 10 games, including the last four. In fact, the ‘over’ is 20-8 in Colorado’s last 28 outings dating to last season.

Capitals at Flames
Saturday, Oct. 30 – 7:05 p.m. PT

Washington is playing its third game in four nights, but that hasn’t seemed to bother the Caps. They are 8-2 in the third game during those last 10 situations. Washington continued its ‘under’ trend Thursday during a 2-1 loss at Minnesota as a 120 road favorite. The Caps have now seen the ‘under’ cash in seven of their last eight outings. Washington is 6-2-2 in its last 10 series meetings against the Flames.

The Flames had a three-game winning streak snapped Thursday when Colorado edged them, 6-5. The combined 11 goals catapulted above the 5 ½-goal closing total, leaving the ‘over’ 4-1 in Calgary’s last five games. Curiously, the Flames are 5-0 in their last five games when scoring five or more goals the previous game and the ‘under’ is 8-2 during the last 10 in that situation. The ‘under’ is 37-17 in Calgary’s last 54 home dates.

Great goaltending

Tim Thomas continues to be a brick wall between the pipes for the Boston Bruins. Thomas has not yielded more than one goal in any of his five starts and has also registered two shutouts. The fast start has him leading all goaltenders with a miniscule 0.60 goals-against average and an unbelievable .981 save percentage.

St. Louis is reaping the benefits of acquiring Jaroslav Halak from Montreal during the offseason. Halak is 5-1-1 in seven starts for the Blues with one shutout and a 1.55 GAA. He also has a fine .939 save percentage.

Los Angeles Kings netminder Jonathan Quick rounds out the top three goalies. Quick has helped the Kings jump out to a fast start by going 6-1 with a 1.96 GAA and .928 save percentage.

It is interesting to note that Montreal’s Carey Price is the lone goalie to play in all of his team’s contests. Price has played in all nine Montreal games, going 6-2-1 with a 2.32 GAA and .913 save percentage.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:18 PM

NHL betting slate finds Oilers in Chicago
By: Adam Markowitz | Thursday, October 28, 2010

Western Conference foes will collide in the Windy City for an NHL betting battle, as the Chicago Blackhawks meet the Edmonton Oilers.

This is a big game for Chicago, which finally logged its first regulation victory since October 16 on Wednesday night against the Los Angeles Kings by the count of 3-1. This is the last home game before hitting the road for the next two and 10 of the next 14.

The Blackhawks enter Thursday night's action with six wins, the most in the Central Division. However, they are only even with the Nashville Predators at 13 points and have played three more games than the Preds have.

Edmonton has the lowest point total in the NHL at this point with just five through seven games. This duel in Chicago on Friday marks the final stop on a grueling three-game road trip. The first game of that stretch resulted in a shootout loss on Tuesday against the Calgary Flames. The Columbus Blue Jackets are on tap Thursday before the Oilers head to the United Center for their duel with the defending champs.

Whatever is going on with the Edmonton penalty kill had better stop if the Oilers don't want to finish with one of the worst records in the league this year. They rank dead last in the league, as they are only killing 65.6 percent of their kills on the season. That's the biggest reason why Edmonton ranks just No. 28 in scoring average at 3.6 GPG.

Goaltending hasn't helped out one bit either. Net minder Nikolai Khabibulin just isn't himself anymore. He is 37 years old, and is clearly struggling in what really should be one of the last seasons of his career. The man they call the "Bulin Wall" has had a lot of holes this season, as he is just 2-5 with a 3.28 GAA and a .900 save percentage.

We have yet to see backup goaltender Devan Dubnyk this year after he went 4-10-2 last season for the Oilers, but with this being the second game in a back to back, there is a good chance that he'll play either Thursday or Friday night.

The good news for the Blackhawks was that they put together one of their best performances of the season on Wednesday night. The bad news is that Marian Hossa suffered an undisclosed injury that was only classified as an "upper body injury." It is unknown whether Hossa will be able to strap on the skates on Friday night.

Hossa was second on the team in goals this year with seven, but he pales in comparison to the production on his line mate, Patrick Sharp. Sharp has nine goals and three helpers this year, including three strikes on the power play. He has scored one goal in three straight games and has tallied at least once in six of the last seven for the Blackhawks.

Chicago knows that Marty Turco is going to have to be big between the pipes on Friday night against the Edmonton offense as well. Turco improved to 5-3 on the season after allowing just a first period goal against the Kings. His GAA of 2.44 and save percentage of .927 are both rock solid.

We fully expect to see the Blackhawks open up on Friday morning as hefty favorites, and for good reason. They were minus 400 'chalk' in the final encounter against Edmonton last year at home, winning 5-2 in March. The Oilers were swept for four games and have dropped seven of the last eight matchups against Chicago as well.

In that stretch of games, the Blackhawks are averaging scoring 4.67 GPG, which is why seven of the nine have exceeded the 'total.'

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