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**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 05:55 PM

Thunder favored by six over Bulls

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CHICAGO BULLS (0-0)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (0-0)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -6, Total: 196

The Thunder look to improve on a very impressive 2009-2010 campaign that saw them come up one point shy of pushing the Lakers to a seventh game in the first round of the playoffs. The youth movement led by Kevin Durant seems to be taking shape nicely, evidenced by Oklahoma City’s surprising 52-36 record last year. The Thunder were equally as good against the spread, tallying a 51-37 mark (58.0%). They played well as home favorites last year, going 26-9 straight-up and 20-15 ATS. One rough spot for the Thunder last season came beyond the arc as they ranked 25th in the NBA in three-point percentage at 34%.

Chicago hopes a new coach and the addition of Carlos Boozer can make it a championship contender as they open the 2010-2011 season. Boozer will not play for a while though, after tripping over a bag and breaking a bone in his right hand. He’s expected to be out until at least December.

Tom Thibodeau takes over a Bulls team that went 41-41 in the regular season last year before losing to Cleveland in five games in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Including the postseason last year, Chicago went an uninspiring 17-27 on the road but managed to break .500 against the spread with a 24-20 mark. The Bulls ranked 24th in scoring in the NBA last season, averaging 97.5 points per game. Their defense limited teams to 99.1 PPG, ranking 13th. These numbers show why over 60% of the Bulls road games last season went under the total. With the defensive-minded Thibodeau now calling the shots, expect the unders to continue to cash in Chicago.

The FoxSheets like the Under Wednesday night based on an Oklahoma City trend.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 95.9, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 1*).

The Bulls are 10-3 ATS in meetings at Seattle/Oklahoma City since 1997, but these low-rated FoxSheets trends favor Oklahoma City:

Scott Brooks is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 99.0, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 1*).

OKLAHOMA CITY is 51-37 ATS (58.0%, +10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.0, OPPONENT 97.8 - (Rating = 0*).

**Kaptain** · 10-27-2010, 06:07 PM

thanks bum give em hell Podna

**bryce** · 10-27-2010, 06:24 PM

Good luck stardust!

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:13 PM

NBA Win Totals

WASHINGTON WIZARDS - UNDER 33.5 WINS

The Wizards landed John Wall in the draft and have high hopes for the future with this young dynamic point guard. There aren't many players in the league that are quicker or faster than Wall in the open court and he should make plenty of highlights on ESPN but he's not going to lift this team to 34 or more wins this year. Last season the Wizards won 26 games on the season and 17 of those W's came with Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Brendon Haywood on the roster. Once those three were traded the Wiz won just 9 more games in the second half of the season. Gilbert Arenas is not the player he once was since knee injuries as he's played just 47 games in the previous three full seasons. Known as a scorer/shooter Arenas has not shot over 42% since the 2005-06 season. Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee are loaded with talent but reports we've gotten say both are immature and head cases. That certainly isn't a good thing considering Arenas will be a cancer this year when Wall gets all the attention. Statistically the Wizards were in the bottom half of the league in nearly every major category and playing in the Southeast Division it's going to be tough. With 16 total games alone against Atlanta (53 wins last year), Charlotte (44), Orlando Magic (59) and the Miami Heat who are going to win 60+ this year we can't see Washington winning more than 30 games this season.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - UNDER 23.5 WINS

This looks to me to be the strongest win total bet on the board right now as we cannot see the Timberwolves going from winning 15 games last year to winning more than 23 this year. Minnesota traded away their best player in Al Jefferson who has been a 20/10 guy (20+ points/10+ rebounds) in two of his last three seasons. In fact, if you want to know how tough it is to average 20/10 in a season? Only Dwight Howard has averaged 20/10 in the past three years and only two players (Chris Bosh and Zach Randolph) other than Jefferson have done it two of the past three years. So the loss of Jefferson will be bigger than anticipated as Michael Beasley won't put up those type of statistics. This T'Wolves lineup is easily the worst in the NBA as they only have three players on the roster that rank in the top third of the league in player efficiency and two the three were role players a season ago. Minnesota was the 28th ranked team in defensive efficiency last year and 29th in offensive efficiency and they didn't improve their lineup in the offseason. It's not like the T'Wolves played close games last year either as they had the largest loss margin per game on the season with a negative 9.6 ppg. Minnesota plays in the Northwest Division (3-13 SU last year w/in the Northwest) with the Nuggets, Thunder, Blazers and Jazz so wins are going to be tough to come by.

NEW JERSEY NETS - OVER 24.5 WINS

This is my second favorite O/U win total bet as I feel the Nets will make drastic improvements over last year's results. The Nets dug themselves a HUGE hole last season when they started the season off with 18 straight losses and were never able to recover. Conversely they closed the season, and built some momentum, by winning 5 of twelve games to end the season. More than doubling their win total from a year ago should come rather easy when you factor in the 16 games they'll play in the Atlantic Division. Only the Celtics had a winning record last year and Toronto, New York and Philadelphia all were 19th or worse in the NBA in win's in 2009-10. The Nets could get off to a good start as they have a minimum of eight very winnable games in October and November. New Jersey added Troy Murphy who has averaged over 14 ppg and 10 rebounds the last two years in Indiana, Travis Outlaw from Portland, Anthony Morrow a 3-point specialist (45% plus the last 2 years) from Golden State and Jordan Farmer from the Lakers. The offense will center around guard Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Harris has averaged over 15 ppg and 6 assists the last three years in the NBA while Lopez is coming of a 18.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg season. Another positive for the Nets was the hiring of Avery Johnson as their new coach. There's a reason the oddsmakers set the Nets win total more than double the number of games they actually won a season ago. Play the OVER.

Other contenders:

Detroit Pistons Under 32 Wins - I'm predicting the Pistons will be 'that team' that dismantles their team at the All-Star break in an effort to build for the future. Tayshaun Prince, Richard Hamilton, Tracy McGrady and Ben Wallace are all 30+ years of age but could still be key role players for a contender. Last year the Pistons won just 29 games and they didn't get any better in the offseason. Other teams in the Central did though as the Bucks, Pacers and Bulls made some moves and will be better. Both Milwaukee and Chicago are solid playoff contenders.

LA Clippers Over 36.5 Wins - If Blake Griffin stays healthy he can alone be the difference in 10-15 wins for the Clippers. L.A. has a solid nucleus with Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and Griffin and play in a weaker Pacific Division (Phoenix will be hurt by the loss of Stoudamire, Sacramento won just 25 games last season while Golden State won 26). The Clippers won 29 games last year without Griffin so getting to 37 shouldn't be a problem.

NBA FINALS PREDICTION

Who wins it all in 2010-11? The NBA Finals looks like a two team race as the Heat (8/5) and Lakers (7/2) are the odds on favorites to make the Finals. It’s easy to make a case for either team but I’m going with the Heat. At this point in time I don’t think we fully realize how good the Heat are going to be this season and the match-up problems they’ll cause teams is just too hard to overlook. My dark horse predictions would be the Oklahoma City Thunder at 15-1 and the Portland Trailblazers at 30-1. The Thunder played the Lakers extremely well in the playoffs last year and have two Super Star players in Durant and Westbrook. Portland is as deep as a team can be and if the ‘bigs’ can stay healthy they are well coached, disciplined and could make a run.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:16 PM

Futures to Watch

Can the NBA season really be upon us?
Yes, it's true, pro hoops begin this week, with college action commencing a few weeks down the road. Before it's too late, however, here are some preferred season "over/under wins" recommendations.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

ATLANTIC DIVISION...Coach Doc Rivers wouldn’t have enlisted for another tour of duty with the Boston Celtics (54½) unless he believed his troops had another title run in them. And Boston hardly stood pat in the offseason, adding a pair of big O’Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine) to compensate for the retirement of Rasheed Wallace and the knee injury to Kendrick Perkins that figures to keep him out until after New Year’s. Not to mention giving Rivers a size advantage over Miami in case the Celts run into the Heat in the postseason. But we saw the road map Doc used to get to the Finals last June, granting liberal rest in the regular season to his aging, injury-prone core of vets that also includes Paul Pierce and sore-kneed Kevin Garnett. Boston will be ready for a last hurrah in the playoffs, but sources don’t expect Doc to push things too much in the regular season; look "under" in Beantown...Doug Collins returns to the sidelines after several years behind the TNT microphone, but we suspect he might soon be wishing he were back alongside Dick Stockton at courtside rather than trying to coax the Philadelphia 76ers (34½) back to the playoffs. We doubt Collins is going to be able to extract anything more out of oft-sidelined PF Elton Brand than did the last three coaches in Philly. There are some interesting pieces (swingman Andre Iguodola, F Thaddeus Young, first-round pick Evan Turner from Ohio State) in the mix, but unless some frontline upgrades materialize, this is a rebuild process until further notice. At least all of the Eagles callers on 610 WIP won’t be wasting Howard Eskin’s time talking hoops; look "under" at Wachovia Center.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION...We’d be smiling if we were Dwyane Wade, too, escorting Gabrielle Union around South Beach and welcoming LeBron James and Chris Bosh as new teammates with the Miami Heat (64½). But before coronating this bunch, we’d like to see how the on-court chemistry develops, and if young HC Erik Spoelstra can deal with Maverick Carter and the rest of LeBron’s posse while reminding his stars they can only play with one ball at a time. The Heat will be plenty good, but we foresee some bumps in the road; look "under" at AA Arena...With all of the attention being paid to the Heat, don’t be surprised if the Orlando Magic (54½) plays with a chip on its figurative shoulder. Although we might have reacquired Hedo Turkoglu if we had the chance in the offseason, there are still plenty of scorers and shooters in the mix to take the pressure off Dwight Howard, whose offense remains maddeningly unrefined. Regardless, look "over" at the new Amway Arena.

CENTRAL DIVISION...Worldwide Wes wasn’t able to deliver LeBron as Windy City fans hoped, but the Chicago Bulls (45½) landed a couple of nice consolation prizes from the Jazz in PF Carlos Boozer and deadeye swingman Kyle Korver. And even with Boozer out until December with a broken hand, there is plenty of depth on hand to compensate. Eventually, Boozer’s presence in the paint and new HC Tom Thibodeau’s many defensive schemes will make Chicago a much tougher playoff "out" than in the past. "Over" at United Center...We don’t think the Cleveland Cavaliers (30½) will regress to the Ted Stepien days in the wake of LeBron’s departure, but they could come close. The roster has been gutted, and new HC Byron Scott might eventually have even less to work with if F Antawn Jamison gets shopped around at the trade deadline as expected. Thanks a lot, LeBron; under at "The Q"...Would the Milwaukee Bucks (45½) have been able to make some serious noise in last spring’s playoffs had C Andrew Bogut not been out with his hand/wrist injury? Maybe so. Bogut still isn’t 100%, and G Michael Redd is recovering from knee surgery, but there’s a lot of time for both to get well between now and April. In the meantime, don’t be surprised if 6-11 VCU rookie Larry Sanders, with the wingspan of Rodan, emerges as the kind of defensive force HC Scott Skiles loves. "Over" in Brewtown.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

SOUTHWEST DIVISION...We’ll believe it when we see it regarding C Yao Ming actually getting back on the court for the Houston Rockets (48½). But even for 20 minutes pg (don’t expect much more), Yao could prove a boost, and HC Rick Adelman has quietly added some valuable complementary pieces (especially G Kevin Martin at the last trade deadline and FA C Brad Miller in summer) to a mix that already included underrated G Aaron Brooks & F Luis Scola. We’re still not sure how Yao factors into the equation, but at full strength the Rockets could be a scary matchup for somebody in the playoffs. We’ll cross our fingers and go "over" at Toyota Center...The championship window seems almost closed for the aging San Antonio Spurs (50½). And as the wear and tear reduces the number of games in which Tim Duncan can be his old self, HC Gregg Popovich will continue to pace his star frontliner in hopes the "Big Fundamental" can be fresh for the playoffs, and cross his fingers that Euro import Tiago Splitter can provide some relief in the paint. At least the cameras can always find Mrs. Tony Parker in the crowd (by the way, have you seem Eva’s new rap video?). Look "under" at AT&T Center.

NORTHWEST DIVISION...The seeds of discontent has already been sewn with the Denver Nuggets (43½), thanks to some ham-handed tactics by agent Leon Rose to force a trade of client Carmelo Anthony to the Nets or Knicks. Now, ‘Melo is so desperate to get out of Denver that he is even enlisting Spike Lee’s help to get back to the Big Apple. What next, calls to Donald Trump and Regis Philbin? We can sense this coming to an unsatisfying conclusion by the trade deadline, distracting attention from HC George Karl’s return to the bench. "Under" at Pepsi Center...Underestimate the Utah Jazz (49½) and HC Jerry Sloan at your own risk. True, Utah surrendered a lot in the offseason when 31% of its offense (Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Wesley Matthews) left Salt Lake City, but Sloan immediately liberated Al Jefferson from Minnesota to take Boozer’s place and added versatile G Raja Bell, as well as first-round pick Gordon Hayward, the Butler ace who could actually provide more dimensions than Korver. As usual, expect Sloan to quickly fit in the new pieces, so we’re looking "over" at EnergySolutions Arena.

PACIFIC DIVISION...More than ever, it’s all about the ring this year with the Los Angeles Lakers (56½), as HC Phil Jackson looks to complete his career with another three-peat (which would be his fourth). But the window might be closing quicker than most realize at Staples Center, with a lineup mostly on the wrong side of 30 and durability becoming a real concern (Kobe already nursing knee problems in preseason). Expect Jackson to pace his aging stars accordingly in the regular season before ramping up for one more title push next April. Look "under" for the Lake Show...The Sacramento Kings (27½) took a risk when drafting Kentucky’s man-child C DeMarcus Cousins in the first round; this pick intrigues, as it could turn into another LaRue Martin or Joe Barry Carroll bust, or a Patrick Ewing-like dominator. If Cousins can mature, however, HC Paul Westphal might be overseeing the best collection of young talent in the league, with the complementary pieces (Carl Landry, Omri Casspi, and Beno Udrih) already beginning to fit nicely around LY’s Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans. They haven’t placed the bar too high in Sacto; expect an "over" at Arco Arena.

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