Announcement

**Udog** · 10-26-2010, 09:57 PM

NFL opening line report: Week 8

We’ve all heard enough about the post-Super Bowl hangover, but that didn’t prepare many bettors for New Orleans’ stinker against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7.

After watching the Saints put up just three points through three quarters before coming back to make the game a little more respectable, many Saints bettors have to be just about ready to throw in the towel. New Orleans couldn’t get anything going most of the day and ended up dropping a 30-17 decision as 12.5-point favorites.

This week they’re set as 1-point underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers after New Orleans opened -2.5 in Las Vegas.

“As the defending champs, they will always attract public action,” says Greg Sindall, an oddsmaker for Sportsinteraction.com. “It buys a team quite a bit more time before people give up on them compared to a normal team.”

Especially when the Saints are finally getting healthy. Reggie Bush is scheduled to start this week, which could give the offense a big lift if he’s 100 percent.

“I don’t think you can rule the Saints out yet,” Sindall adds. “Being without both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas for an extended period has hurt the Saints significantly. The Saints’ offense has become one dimensional so they have been a much easier team to play against – even with Drew Brees at the helm. Bush is probable this Sunday and his return couldn’t come at a better time as they are hosting the Steelers.”

Veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Chuck Esposito agrees. Esposito points out that while these definitely don’t look like last year’s Saints, they’re still only a game back in their division

“Things can change quickly in this league and they are still 4-3 in a very weak NFC through 7 weeks,” Esposito says. “The three teams that were supposed to challenge them are all below .500 except the Packers who also sit at 4-3. I think it's way too early to give them up for dead and I believe they can clearly bounce back.”

Biggest spread of the week: Jacksonville at Dallas (-11)

Esposito says this lined opened at Dallas -11 in Vegas, but expected it to move after the injury suffered to Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo against the New York Giants Monday night. Romo will be out for an extended period of time while he recovers from a broken left clavicle.

Most books have kept this game off the board. Dallas backup QB Jon Kitna seemed to settle in after a rough start in relief of Romo Monday, but the Cowboys aren’t the only team with health issues under center. Jacksonville pivot David Garrard has been recovering from a concussion but is optimistic about starting in Week 8.

Smallest spread of the week: Washington at Detroit (-1), Seattle at Oakland (-1), Pittsburgh at New Orleans (+1)

There are a lot of small lines on the board this week, but the one that is causing the books the most grief is the Steelers-Saints game. With Pittsburgh touted by many as the best team in the league at this point and the Saints’ public following, this is going to be a big one.

Outside of these 1-point lines, there are currently four other games hovering around the field-goal mark, so moneyline underdogs could weigh in heavily on the week’s handle.

Biggest total of the week: Houston at Indianapolis (-5, 49.5)

No big surprise here. Indy owns the league’s second-best total offense, producing 409 yards per game while Houston has the No. 4 total offense.

If you like the over here, you’d better get it now because Esposito figures this total is going up with a lot of public bets.

Smallest total of the week: Carolina at St. Louis (-3, 37)

This has more to do with Carolina’s terrible offense than anything else. The Panthers have played under in four of their six games this year and are 31st in total offense.

Trickiest line: Denver vs. San Francisco (pick ‘em, 41 1/2), Minnesota at New England (-5.5, 44)

Jay Kornegay, Executive Director of the Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook, is all over the Broncos-49ers game being played in London this week.

“From what I understand, each team, players, coaches, etc. all have to make plans for their family members for the trip over to London. It could be a distraction leading up to the games before the trip,” notes Kornegay. “Another thing about this game will be the total. This game is usually played in sloppy, rainy conditions. This could be the trickiest line since the Broncos looked so bad against the Raiders. Are they really that bad or was it an aberration?”

Meanwhile, Esposito is worrying about Brett Favre’s ankle and any discipline he may face from his sexting habits heading into this week’s game against the Pats. The line has already moved up from its opening number of -4 and Esposito says it will move a lot more if Favre is out.

Other early lines:

Tennessee at San Diego (-3.5, 44)
Tampa Bay at Arizona (-3, 39.5)
Green Bay at New York Jets (-6, 42.5)
Buffalo at Kansas City (-7.5, 44.5)

**Udog** · 10-26-2010, 09:59 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Seattle at Oakland
The Seahawks look to take advantage of an Oakland team that is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite. Seattle is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Raiders favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 207-208: Denver at San Francisco (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.904; San Francisco 130.374
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+1); Under

Game 209-210: Jacksonville at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.825; Dallas 135.347
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Washington at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.920; Detroit 130.644
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 213-214: Green Bay at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.891; NY Jets 143.282
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 10 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: Carolina at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 124.384; St. Louis 129.896
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3); Over

Game 217-218: Miami at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.862; Cincinnati 131.405
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2); Under

Game 219-220: Buffalo at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 122.595; Kansas City 134.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 12; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-7 1/2); Over

Game 221-222: Tennessee at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 138.060; San Diego 132.915
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+4); Under

Game 223-224: Tampa Bay at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.499; Arizona 126.992
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over

Game 225-226: Seattle at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.139; Oakland 128.306
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Minnesota at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 134.562; New England 141.012
Dunkel Line: New England by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under

Game 229-230: Pittsburgh at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.927; New Orleans 134.595
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1

Game 231-232: Houston at Indianapolis (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.397; Indianapolis 139.920
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 10 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 10-26-2010, 10:00 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, October 31

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DENVER (2 - 5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 6) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 4) at DALLAS (1 - 5) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (4 - 3) at DETROIT (1 - 5) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 3) at NY JETS (5 - 1) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 5) at ST LOUIS (3 - 4) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (3 - 3) at CINCINNATI (2 - 4) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (0 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 2) - 10/31/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 5) - 10/31/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 3) - 10/31/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (4 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 10/31/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-47 ATS (-29.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 27-58 ATS (-36.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) - 10/31/2010, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 3) - 10/31/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 1

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HOUSTON (4 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2) - 11/1/2010, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-26-2010, 10:01 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Sunday, 10/31/2010

DENVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM ET (at London, England)
DENVER: 2-16 ATS off an Over
SAN FRANCISCO: 5-0 ATS off SU loss as favorite

JACKSONVILLE at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 1-9 ATS after allowing 30+ points
DALLAS: 20-7 ATS after allowing 35+ points

WASHINGTON at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 7-1 Under vs. Detroit
DETROIT: 34-53 ATS as favorite

GREEN BAY at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 0-3 ATS vs. NY Jets
NY JETS: 11-2 Under off BB covers as favorite

CAROLINA at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 82-55 ATS as an underdog
ST LOUIS: 27-45 ATS off road loss

MIAMI at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 6-0 ATS as road dog of 3pts or less
CINCINNATI: 0-7 ATS as home favorite

BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 7-1 Under at Kansas City
KANSAS CITY: 11-1 ATS at home after gaining 200+ rush yds last game

TENNESSEE at SAN DIEGO, 4:05 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 35-19 Over in October
SAN DIEGO: 15-3 ATS vs. AFC South

TAMPA BAY at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 5-1 Under vs. Arizona
ARIZONA: 11-2 ATS at home off SU loss

SEATTLE at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 0-6 ATS off home win
OAKLAND: 0-6 ATS off SU win as underdog

MINNESOTA at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 6-1 Over after failing to cover 2 of L3 games
NEW ENGLAND: 1-5 ATS off BB ATS wins

PITTSBURGH at NEW ORLEANS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PITTSBURGH: 46-28 ATS as underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 0-7 ATS at home off DD loss as favorite

Monday, 11/1/2010

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
HOUSTON: 7-19 ATS off home win
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-2 ATS if 50+ pts were scored last game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-26-2010, 10:03 PM

NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 31

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Denver
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. DALLAS
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Dallas is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DETROIT
Washington is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games

4:05 PM
TENNESSEE vs. SAN DIEGO
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games at home
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games

4:15 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing New England
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games

4:15 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ORLEANS
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home

Monday, November 1

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing at home against Houston

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**Udog** · 10-27-2010, 10:42 PM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 8 games

Broncos (2-5) vs. 49ers (1-6) (@ London)—Two disappointing teams cross pond to showcase the NFL. Since starting last year 6-0, Broncos are now 4-13 in last 17 games- they were down 38-0 at home to Oakland last week, less than a minute into 2nd quarter. 49ers have 31 penalties for 292 yards in last three games; their only win came in rain against Raider team that just blitzed Denver. Teams split 12 series games, with average total in last six, 51.8. NFC West teams are 10-8 vs. spread in non-division games, 4-6 on road; AFC West teams are 9-12, 4-7 on road. Niners are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games vs AFC teams, but 3-14-3 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Six of seven Denver games went over the total.

Jaguars (3-4) @ Cowboys (1-6)—Kitna gets first start since ’08 here, subbing for injured Romo, with untested McGee only backup as this is written. Cowboys are a trainwreck, losing last three games, allowing 33 ppg (11 TDs on 35 drives; they’re 0-3 at home and 0-4 SU when favored this year. Jaguars were outscored 72-23 in losing last two games; all four of their losses are by 22+ points- they allowed 26+ points in each of last six games. NFC East teams are 4-6 as non-divisional favorites; AFC south road dogs are 3-2 outside the division. Home side won three of four series games, with average total 42.3; Jags lost two of three visits here, with losses by 4-2 points. Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville games, 4-1 in last five Dallas games.

Redskins (4-3) @ Lions (1-5)—Washington’s last three games were all decided by 3 points; only one of their games this year was decided by more than 6 points- underdogs are 5-1-1 in Redskin games this year, with dog winning SU in all three Washington road games. Detroit was outscored 51-17 in losing its two post-bye games under Schwartz; they’re 5-1 vs spread in ’10, 1-0 as favorite, crushing Rams 44-6, same Ram team that beat the Redskins. Detroit is 3-4 in last seven series games, after losing previous 22 games to Redskins; Skins are 2-3 in last five visits here, as home side won 10 of last 12 series games. Average total in last five series games is 32.8. Four of last five Detroit games went over total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under.

Packers (4-3) @ Jets (5-1)—Well-rested Jets won five games in row before bye, scoring 30 ppg (16 TDs, 12 FGs on 57 drives); now they face Packer squad whose last four games were all decided by 4 or less points, and are coming off emotional primetime home game vs rival Vikings. All three Green Bay losses this year are by 3 points. Pack allowed 150-196 rushing yards in last two games, good news for Jets, who run ball for average of 150.7 yards/game. Rodgers wasn’t sacked by Vikings, after he’d been sacked nine times in previous two games. Jets are 8-2 in series, winning last two 42-17/38-10- they won all four games played here by 25-2-3-25 points. NFC North underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread outside the division. Last five Jet games went over the total.

Panthers (1-5) @ Rams (3-4)—Rams are 3-0 if they average more than 5.0 yards/pass attempt, 0-4 if they don’t; four of six Panther opponents averaged over 5.0 ypa. St Louis is favored for first time since Week 13 in ’07; they’ve won last three home games (Redskins-Seahawks-Chargers), holding those teams to 9-44 on 3rd down, but have been unproductive (too conservative) in second half of last three games, outscored 46-3. Carolina got first win last week with Moore back at QB; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 31-18 at Giants (+7), 16-14 at Saints (+13). Panthers are even in turnovers last three games, after being -10 in first three- they’ve been outscored 61-27 in first half of last five games. Under is 5-2 in Ram games this year, 4-1 in last five Carolina games.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Bengals (2-4)—Miami is 3-0 on road ( Vikings-Packers-Bills), 0-3 at home (Jets-Pats-Steelers); four of their six games were decided by five or less points, with last two decided by total of 4 points (dogs covered their last five games). Bengals lost last three games, allowing 28.7 ppg (nine TD’s on 32 drives); since 2007, they’re 3-7 as favorite of 3 or less points. Miami is 11-7 vs spread in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. In last two games, Fish have only one TD on five red zone drives. Cincy won last two series meetings, after losing 13 of previous 16; their last loss to Miami was 10 years ago. Last three Cincinnati games and three of last four Miami games all went over the total.

Bills (0-6) @ Chiefs (4-2)—Buffalo led 24-10 in 1st half, outgained Ravens 506-364 last week, but came up empty after turning ball over in OT for 4th time in game; they’re 2-1 as road dog this year (9-6 since 2008), losing away games 34-7 (+13) in Green Bay, 38-30 (+14) in Foxboro, 37-34 in OT (+13)in Baltimore. In last two road games, Bills have six TD’s, five FG’s on 21 drives, which ain’t bad. Home team won 10 of last 13 series games, with Buffalo winning last three, taking 54-31/16-10 decisions the last two years. Chiefs are 3-0 at home, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TD’s on 34 drives); they covered as home favorite last week, after being 0-6-1 as HF since start of ’07 season. Last four Buffalo games and three of last four Chief games went over the total.

Titans (5-2) @ Chargers (2-5)—Resourceful Tennessee won last three games, scoring 34-30-37 points, scoring last 27 points vs Philly last week (won 37-19), even with backup QB Collins playing whole game; they’ve had 2+ takeaways in each of their five wins, one in each loss. Chargers are nothing if not self-destructive, turning ball over 17 times in last six games (-8 in last three). Bolts lost last three games, allowing 26 ppg. Titans are 3-0 on road with wins at Giants-Dallas-Jags. San Diego has won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 11+ points. Titans lost last four visits here by average score of 28-12. Chargers are 9-14-1 in last 24 games as single digit fave. Three of last four Tennessee games went over the total.

Buccaneers (4-2) @ Cardinals (3-3)—Home team won last four series games, with Bucs losing last two visits here, 13-9/12-7; average total in last seven series games is 24.6 (19.5 in last four played here). Tampa Bay allowed 38-31 points in its two losses; they were down 17-3 at half last week, rallied at home to beat Rams- they’re 2-0 on road, beating Panthers (20-7, +3), Bengals (24-21, +7). Bucs gave up average of 180.8 rushing yards/game in last four games, so Beanie Wells could have big day, taking heat off whichever overmatched QB Redbirds use. Arizona had four takeaways in two of its three wins (Oakland missed chip shot FG for win at gun of other win). Bucs were outscored 72-19 in first half of their last four games. Four of last five Arizona games went over.

Seahawks (4-2) @ Raiders (3-4)—You can tell early with Seattle; they were outscored 27-3 in first half of their two losses, outscored other foes 48-19 before halftime. 3rd down defense has also been a key; their foes were 21-36 on 3rd down in Seattle’s two losses, 9-53 in their four wins. Oakland is 18-44 (40.9%) on 3rd down in their three home games. Raiders led 38-0 in first minute of 2nd quarter last week in Denver, they’re 2-1 at home, failing to cover only try as favorite (0-11 as home favorite since Week 7 in ’05). Home side won last nine series games in what used to be division rivalry; Seattle lost last five visits here by average of 16 points. Seattle scored 22+ points in its four wins, allowing four TD’s on 48 drives, 31-20 in its losses.

Vikings (2-4) @ Patriots (5-1)—Favre has two breaks in ankle, unproductive Jackson would get start at QB for Vikings if #4 can’t go, in what is Moss’ return to Foxboro, after he talked his way out of town. Patriots won last four games, scoring 31.3 ppg- they’re 3-0 at home (1-1-1 as home fave), scoring average of 33 ppg (10 TD’s, five FG on 31 drives. Vikings have 8 TD’s on 32 drives in last three games (had 5 of 33 in first three), but they don’t have sack in last two games (foes 15-28 on 3rd down). Home team won six of eight series games, with Vikings 2-4 in six visits here. AFC East teams are 8-3-1 vs spread in non-division games (2-2-1 as home favorite); NFC North teams are 4-2-1 as an underdog in non-divisional games. Last three Minnesota games went over the total.

Steelers (5-1) @ Saints (4-3)—Super Bowl champs allowed 27-30-30 points in three losses, 22 or less in four wins; offense has coughed ball up 11 times in the losses, with four of the 11 being run back for TD’s (they’ve had 3 turnovers in four wins). Saints expected to get Bush back for this, making offense more diverse, but Steelers allowing just 63.8 rushing yards/game this season. This is first of only three Steeler games on carpet this year. Pitt is 14-8 vs spread in last 22 games vs NFC teams. Saints were +5 in turnovers in first two games, are -10 since, and have only one INT in last five games. Four of last six games in infrequently-played series were decided by 4 or less points, with average total in last three, 60.3. Three of last four Steeler games went over the total.

Texans (4-2) @ Colts (4-2)—First rematch of season has Indy trying to avenge 34-24 loss in Week 1, just Texans’ second win in 17 series games; Houston is 0-8 here, losing 33-27/20-17 in last two visits. Houston had 257 rushing yards in opener, converting 6-11 on 3rd down as they scored four TD’s on nine drives. Both teams had bye last week; Texans are 1-4 in last five post-bye games, Colts won/covered their last five, but season-ending injury to TE Clark (wrist) will hamper Indy aerial attack, which had 419 yards in opener. Home favorites in divisional games are just 4-13 vs spread this season. Indy is 2-0 as home favorite this year (won 38-14/19-9 vs. two first-place teams). Texans are 2-0 on road, winning at Washington/Oakland. Average total in Texans’ last seven visits here is 53.9.

Over last six weeks, underdogs are 52-34 (60.5%) against the spread.
Over is 53-35 (60.2%) over the same time period

**Udog** · 10-29-2010, 07:36 PM

NFL

Week 8

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 8
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Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

Why Bills cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Kansas City.

Why Chiefs cover: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones head the league's top-ranked rushing attack against a Buffalo team that has the NFL's worst rush defense.

Total (44.5): Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Why Jaguars cover: The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Tony Romo is out for Dallas with a fractured left clavicle. David Garrard is expected to return from his concussion.

Why Cowboys cover: They could exploit a Jaguars run defense that has allowed almost 500 yards on the ground in their last three games. Jacksonville will be without right tackle Eben Britton who has a torn labrum.

Total (42.5): Over is 4-0 in the Jaguars' last four road games and 4-0 in the Cowboys' last four home games.

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (-3)

Why Panthers cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in St. Louis.

Why Rams cover: Carolina's run game could struggle mightily with DeAngelo Williams battling a foot injury and Jonathan Stewart having a disappointing season.

Total (37): Under is 5-1 in the Rams' last six home games and 4-1 in the Panthers' last five games overall.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5)

Why Dolphins cover: They are 3-0 straight up and ATS on the road this season. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown should have success against a Bengals defense that has yet to return to its 2009 form and is ranked 22nd in run defense.

Why Bengals cover: Miami's anaemic offense is only averaging 18.5 points be game and could find it hard to keep pace with Cincinnati's eighth ranked offense if it becomes a shootout.

Total (43.5): Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins' last five road games.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1)

Why Redskins cover: Donovan McNabb has a higher passer rating (137.9) against Detroit than any other opponent. Ryan Torain has rushed for 335 yards and three scores since replacing injured Clinton Portis at tailback.

Why Lions cover: The home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. They will get quarterback Matthew Stafford back from his shoulder injury.

Total (44): Under is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings and 3-0-2 in the last five meetings in Detroit.

Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1)

Why Broncos cover: Troy Smith, who has a total of 13 pass attempts in the last two years, will start at quarterback for the Niners due to Alex Smith's shoulder injury.

Why 49ers cover: Denver's pathetic run defense is allowing 156 yards per game, including 328 to Oakland last week, and will have a hard time containing Frank Gore, who has been on fire.

Total (41.5): Over is 11-1 in the Broncos' last 12 games.

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (-6)

Why Packers cover: Their secondary could get a big boost with the return of both strong safety Atari Bigby and cornerback Al Harris.

Why Jets cover: They have won three in a row over straight up over the Packers. Darrelle Revis' is finally back to 100 percent after his hamstring injury.

Total (42.5): Over is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

Why Titans cover: San Diego's sputtering offense could be without receivers Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee, who both have hamstring injuries.

Why Chargers cover: The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings. Vince Young has knee and ankle injuries and Kerry Collins has a torn tendon in a finger on his throwing hand. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Titans will not be 100 percent.

Total (44): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Why Buccaneers cover: Max Hall has a concussion, Derek Anderson has been terrible and Arizona doesn't have any better options at quarterback.

Why Cardinals cover: Receiver Steve Breaston could return from his knee injury to boost the passing game. Despite their winning record, Tampa Bay has trouble getting the ball into the end zone and is only averaging 16.3 points per game.

Total (39.5): Under is 5-1 in the Buccaneers' last six road games and 11-2 in their last 13 games overall.

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Why Vikings cover: New England could be without defensive back and star special-teams player Pat Chung, who suffered a knee injury Sunday. Randy Moss knows the offensive playbook of the Patriots, which could play in the Vikings' favor.

Why Patriots cover: Brett Favre is having the worst season of his career and will be hobbled by fractures in his surgically repaired ankle, if he suits up at all.

Total (44): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders (-1)

Why Seahawks cover: They are undefeated since trading for Marshawn Lynch who has sparked an otherwise stagnant Seattle ground game. He could roll against Oakland's 28th ranked rush defense.

Why Raiders cover: The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Oakland.

Total (41.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (+1)

Why Steelers cover: The Saints are still hampered by multiple injuries to their secondary and backfield.

Why Saints cover: Pittsburgh's feared defense took a major blow when defensive end Aaron Smith was lost indefinitely with a torn triceps. With Brett Keisel and linebacker LaMarr Woodley also banged up, New Orleans could move the ball downfield with ease.

Total (43.5): Over is 5-2 in the Steelers' last seven road games and 18-8-1 in the Saints' last 27 home games.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

Why Texans cover: The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. They will get left tackle Duane Brown back from suspension. Indianapolis' passing game is sure to suffer with both Austin Collie and Dallas Clark out with injuries.

Why Colts cover: With DeMeco Ryans out for the season, Houston's NFL-worst defense will have to juggle their linebackers and will move Brian Cushing from the strong side to the middle.

Total (49.5): Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis.

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**Udog** · 10-30-2010, 10:37 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 31

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-1, 44)
In a city in which the hangover has become part of its lore, the local pro football team is enduring a head-splitting one.

The defending champion Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints will be looking to shake off its season-long malaise when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night at the Louisiana Superdome.

WAKE UP CALL
A stunning home loss (30-17) to the Cleveland Browns as 13-point faves last week, coming off a wretched performance two weeks earlier in a 30-20 defeat at Arizona, have ratcheted up the "what's wrong" questions with the Saints (4-3).

Many observers are attributing New Orleans' struggles to a Super Bowl hangover, a notion that gains added relevance with the Steelers coming to town.

Pittsburgh won Super Bowl titles following the 2005 and 2008 seasons, and on both occasions failed to land a spot in the playoffs the following year.

That's the path the Saints are currently stumbling down - and a visit by the Steelers doesn't bode well for a reversal of the home team’s fortunes.

“We knew that this journey was not going to be easy going through this season, and we knew that we would have peaks and valleys," Saints quarterback Drew Brees told ESPN.com. “We just happen to be in one of those valleys. It feels like we’ve been in it for a while and we all want to get out of it."

BACK ON TOP
Pittsburgh (5-1) sits atop the AFC North and is tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in football. That the Steelers have started off so well with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sitting out the first four games due to a league-mandated suspension speaks volumes to their level of play.

Defense again is in vogue in the Steel City, with Pittsburgh allowing an NFL-low 82 points through six games.

Having Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu healthy has been an enormous factor for the defense, which lost defensive end Aaron Smith for an indefinite period with a torn triceps suffered in last week's 23-22 win in Miami.

The one positive the Saints can glean from facing the Steelers is that their defense is especially stingy against the run, allowing a league-low 63.7 yards per game.

New Orleans’ rushing attack has been a non-factor for much of the season, with injuries to running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush playing major factors.

COLD BREES
Saints quarterback Drew Brees is still piling up numbers – he’s third in the league with 2,029 yards and has tossed an NFL-high 14 touchdowns – but he’s been intercepted 10 times already, one short of his entire season total from 2009.

Brees went to the air 56 times and was picked off four times in last week’s stunning loss to Cleveland. Two of those interceptions were brought back for touchdowns by Browns linebacker David Bowens.

The reigning Super Bowl MVP needs to get untracked against a Pittsburgh defense that is vulnerable through the air, ranking 24th in the league by allowing an average of 235.7 yards per game.

ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS
Brees’ counterpart looks like he hasn’t missed a snap this season. Roethlisberger has thrown for 559 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in his first two games.

The Steelers got a break last week when Roethlisberger fumbled into the end zone late in the game vs. the Dolphins. The play, originally ruled a touchdown, was overturned on replay but officials could not decipher who recovered the ball.

Pittsburgh maintained possession and Jeff Reed kicked a go-ahead field goal with 2:26 remaining to keep the Steelers unbeaten on the road at 3-0.

Despite some questionable decisions under pressure with the ball, Roethlisberger is the league's best quarterback when blitzed, according to ESPN's Stats and Information. Big Ben owns a 140.1 passer rating when defenses send an extra attacker his way, something Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams likes to do often.

INJURIES
The Steelers defense will be missing its two starting defensive ends against the Saints. Aaron Smith (triceps) and Brett Keisel (hamstring) are both intregal parts to Pittsburgh's dominating run defense and will be missed.

For the Saints Reggie Bush will not return from his fibula injury this week. Tailback Pierre Thomas also remains on the shelf.

Cornerback Jabari Greer (shoulder) is doubtful and co-starter Tracy Porter (knee) is questionable.

TRENDS
The Steelers are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as road underdogs.

The Saints are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a straight up loss.

New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

The over is 5-2 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.

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**Udog** · 10-30-2010, 10:37 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 31

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NFL Total Bias: Week 8 over/under picks
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London’s a great place to visit, but the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers aren’t in any mood to be touring the Tower of London or visiting Big Ben (the clock not the handsy Steelers QB).

I’m not sure where I stand on these midseason treks across the pond to begin with, especially when the NFL is sending over a 1-6 San Francisco team to square off against a Broncos squad that just gave up 59 points to the Oakland “freaking” Raiders.

These are the teams we want showcasing American football?

On the plus side, the league did also send Marisa Miller to London as an official “spokeswoman” and she looks pretty good frolicking around Trafalgar Square in some promo shots, so it’s not all bad.

Anyway, it presents us with a unique handicapping situation this week. Josh McDaniels opted to put his Broncos through a couple days of practice before making the trek to London Thursday, which probably makes sense after the 59-14 stinker they put up against the Raiders last week.

“We’re telling them to sleep on the plane as much as possible and we’re going to try to aid that in any way that we can,” McDaniels told reporters.

“Once we’re there, we’re trying to treat it like a normal Friday. We’re not going to have them sleeping until noon or 1 p.m. - that would be probably the worst thing we can do to try to get acclimated for Sunday. Once we’re there, there’s no time (to sleep), there’s no choice. We’re going to go meet and go walk-through and then come back and then we have a curfew (Friday) night.”

The 49ers flew to the UK right after they gave up 10 points in the last two minutes of the 23-20 loss to the Panthers, so they’ve been getting settled with their surroundings all week.

"For us, it's a nice chance to get away and regroup, rethink," 49ers coach Mike Singletary told reporters. "It really works to be a bonus for us. It really gives us a chance to kind of get away from the hustle and bustle of the NFL, to come over and kind of think through some things, look at maybe some changes we need to make."

Changes are going to be significant for both teams, but seeing how they execute them in this kind of situation is going to be interesting. This one goes at 5 p.m. London time to coincide with the early starts this week.

Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1, 41.5)

McDaniels and Singletary may have their jobs on the line and you have to feel for them while they take their teams on this kind of road trip.

I have no idea what to expect from Troy Smith outside of the fact that he’s probably going to drop back three steps and hand the ball to Frank Gore all day - which isn’t a bad idea considering how terrible Denver’s league-worst run defense is. Kyle Orton bounces back this week and the two teams put on a sloppy showing that results in a bunch of points.

The two squads have played over 10 times combined this year.

Pick: Over

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 49.5)

I’m a little worried about Indy’s running game this week with both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown banged up. Then again, if the Colts can’t run, that just means Peyton’s going to have to throw it on every down.

Meanwhile, Houston has put up more than 30 points in all four of its wins this season and these teams have checked in above the total in 10 of their last meetings.

At this point, you can still find a few 49.5’s around depending on your sportsbook, but it’s only going to go up leading up to kickoff.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 44.5)

Yeah, San Diego’s at home, but I still have no idea why the Chargers are favored by this much here. That’s beside the point though. I also don’t have a clue how they’re going to stop a Titans team that has cracked 30 points in three straight games.

Watching the San Diego Chargers weekly train wreck is one of my favorite things in the NFL right now and Philip Rivers is one of my fantasy QBs. I don’t want to watch, but I just can’t help it.

Pick: Over

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 9-13

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**Udog** · 10-30-2010, 10:39 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 31

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NFL Week 8 weather report: NFL gets wet in Wembley
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About the only thing that won’t be scary on Halloween is the weather for Week 8. Clear skies are in the forecast for all NFL games being played inside the United States. But Sunday’s jump across the pond should be wet and wild in Wembley.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos (+1, 45.5)

San Francisco is expected to have great football weather Sunday afternoon, too bad the Niners won’t be anywhere near the Bay Area. San Francisco and Denver take center stage at Wembley Stadium in London, England and will get a taste of that classic London fall weather. The forecast is calling for rain and game-time temperatures in the low 50s.

The Niners told reporters this week, they prefer to play in the wet stuff, leaning on their rushing attack. Wembley Stadium has a retractable roof but it only covers the seating – not the field – leaving the playing surface soaked from a week’s worth of rain. Cheerio!

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-6, 43.5)

If Brett Favre does manage to make his 292nd consecutive start Sunday, he’ll do it in strong winds getting up to 22 mph in Foxboro. The gusts are expected to blow northwest from corner to corner while chilling game-time temps into the mid 40s. With a dinged up QB and strong winds, Minnesota could hand the ball to Adrian Peterson a lot versus the Pats.

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**Udog** · 10-31-2010, 11:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 31

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Tips and Trends
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Green Bay Packers at New York Jets [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

PACKERS: Green Bay has finally beaten Brett Favre, thanks to a high profile Sunday night win in front of a national audience. The Packers are quite likely to have a bit of a letdown this week, just because of their emotional win over the Vikings. Green Bay is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS overall this season. The Packers are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. QB Aaron Rodgers holds the keys to this offense, as he's thrown for nearly 1,850 YDS and 12 TD's this year. Without a legitimate running game, Rodgers has had to throw early and often for Green Bay. WR Greg Jennings has a team high 390 receiving yards with 5 TD's this season. The Packers are allowing 19.4 PPG and 338 YPG overall this season. Both A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews continue to fly around the ball for Green Bay. Tonight will be the first time this season the Packers will play as the listed underdog. Green Bay is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Packers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. Green Bay is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Packers are 21-10-1 ATS last 32 road games.
Over is 25-10 last 35 games following an ATS win.

Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 23

JETS: (-6, O/U 42.5) New York has won their past 5 games since losing their season opener by a single point. The Jets are 5-1 both SU and ATS this season, and are widely considered to be the best team in the NFL. Everyone knows how great the Jets defense is, but not many realize how good this offense has been this season. New York is averaging 26.5 PPG this season, 4th best in the NFL. The Jets are averaging nearly 160 YPG rushing this season, thanks to the 2 headed monster of RB's LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. Tomlinson has rushed for 490 YDS this season, including 5 TD's. QB Mark Sanchez has turned into the offensive leader of this team, as he manages the game well. Defensively, only 1 opponent has scored more than 20 PTS against the Jets this season. New York is allowing 16.8 PPG, 4th best in the NFL. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. New York is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. The Jets are 6-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Jets are 4-0 ATS last 4 games in October.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Dustin Keller (wrist) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints [NBC | 8:35 PM ET]

STEELERS: Pittsburgh can make a claim as being the best team in football, as they have an impressive 5-1 SU record. The Steelers are one of 3 teams with a 5-1 record. With QB Ben Roethlisberger back in the mix, it's highly likely that the Steelers will finish with one of the very best records in the NFL. Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS overall on the road this year. The Steelers are playing back to back road games for the 2nd time this year. The Steelers have scored 51 PTS in their past 2 games. RB Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for 532 YDS this season, including 5 TD's. WR Mike Wallace leads the Steelers with both 354 receiving YDS and 4 receiving TD's. Defensively, Pittsburgh is as good as they've ever been. The Steelers are allowing an NFL low 13.7 PPG this season. Pittsburgh will be playing on the road for the 3rd consecutive week in their next game, a Monday Night affair in Cincinnati. Back to back high profile standalone games for the Steelers and their fans. The Steelers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Pittsburgh is 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games in October.

Steelers are 5-0 ATS last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-2 last 7 road games.

Key Injuries - T Flozell Adamns (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

SAINTS: (PK, O/U 44) New Orleans might just be the most disappointing team in the NFL, as they are coming off their worst loss of the season. As a 14 point favorite, the Saints lost SU to the Cleveland Browns, all in front of their home fans. New Orleans is 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS overall this season. This Saints offense just isn't what it's been in the past, as they've been held to 20 PTS or fewer in 4 of their 7 games this year. QB Drew Brees is having a far more difficult time finding his receiving targets this year, and has 10 INT's already this season. For the year, the Saints are averaging just 21 PPG, in the bottom half of the NFL. Defensively, the Saints are allowing 19.7 PPG this year. In each of their 3 losses, the Saints have allowed their opponents to score at least 27 PTS. Special teams and mental lapses have crushed the Saints this year. Because they are in the NFC, the Saints still have plenty of time to turn their season around. Perhaps the addition of RB Reggie Bush into the lineup will jump-start this lifeless offense. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall. The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Saints are 12-3 ATS last 15 games following a SU loss.
Under is 8-3 last 11 games following an ATS loss.

Key Injuries - RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

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**Udog** · 10-31-2010, 11:17 PM

NFL

Monday, November 1

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 51)

Current Odds

Indianapolis has fluctuated between a 5 to 6-point home favorite during the week and currently stand -5.5 in most locations. The over/under on this game opened at 49 and has jumped to the key number of 51. The public is looking for a high-scoring game as 65 percent of the *********** consensus is supporting the over.

Injury Report

The Colts are missing three key players on offense: wide receiver Austin Collie, tight end Dallas Clark and running back Joseph Addai. Collie, Clark and Addai are ranked second, third, and fourth in receptions this season, combining for 99 catches for 968 yards with nine touchdowns. Addai is also the Colts’ leading rusher with 406 yards (4.4 ypr) and three touchdowns.

Houston has five players listed as questionable due to various knee and hamstring injuries. Defensive end Jesse Nading missed practice, while wide receiver Dorin Dickerson, cornerback Sherrick McManis and linebackers Xavier Adibi and Kevin Bentley all participated in practice after missing last week’s game.

No Dallas in Indianapolis

The Indianapolis Colts suffered a big blow when they lost tight end Dallas Clark to a season-ending wrist injury in their game against the Redskins two weeks ago. Clark is one of, if not the best, tight ends in the NFL and without him on the field is going to be a huge void to fill for the Colts.

Opposing teams will now play with five or six defensive backs, daring the Colts to run the football, something they cannot do consistently. The Colts average just 95 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush and they’ve only gained more than 100 yards on the ground in two of their six games.

”It’s going to be interesting,” Peyton Manning conceded. “There’s definitely some unknown there. We’ll have some groupings in there that we've never had before because Dallas is a guy that never left the field.

“You still have the same expectations, but you may have to make some adjustments. To sit here and say there's not an adjustment without Dallas Clark, we can't say that. He’s too great of a player not to have an effect.”

All Aboard the Foster Train

The Colts and Texans met in Week 1 and Houston running back Arian Foster had a career-game running the football. Foster ran for 231 yards on 33 carries as the Texans gashed the Indianapolis defense for 6.1 yards per rush. The Texans won that game 34-24 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.

”We made the decision to run the ball that game,” Foster said. “I ended up with 30-something carries and any time you get into that rhythm, you just see the field better. The offensive line was tremendous. The tight ends and receivers blocked well. Everything was working.”

Can Foster repeat that effort again? It’s highly unlikely because the Colts will be game planning to stop Foster and the Texans running game now. And that should lead to some good opportunities for quarterback Matt Schaub and the Houston passing attack.

And these comments by Foster make us believe that the Texans will be looking to pass the ball in this game.

“We have a high-powered offense,” Foster said. “They (Colts) can’t go into this game with their attention on one individual. I think we have a good game plan in place and if we go in and execute the way I know we can, we are going to be just fine.”

A Drunk Punter? Say It Ain’t So

Indianapolis has one of the best punter/kickoff specialists in the league with Pat McAfee. But the Colts will be without McAfee for this game as he is suspended for one-game after his arrest for public intoxication during Indianapolis’ bye week.

The absence of McAfee is huge for the Colts here, but since he’s not a high-profile offensive or defensive player, this news is flying under the radar.

The Colts signed former Green Bay punter Jeremy Kapinos to kick for McAfee in this game. But this is a huge downgrade as some fantasy pundits have called Kapinos the ‘worst punter in football.’

Kapinos was so bad for the Packers that head coach Mike McCarthy publicly called him out twice for his terrible kicking during his time in Green Bay.

Indianapolis’ specials teams have been thinned by injuries and they have several regulars who could be required to play extensively on offense because of their multiple injuries on that side of the ball. It’s clear that the Colts have a big liability in this game on their special teams so you can’t overlook that fact when analyzing this matchup.

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**Udog** · 11-01-2010, 09:38 AM

NFL

Monday, November 1

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Tips and Trends
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

TEXANS: Houston is 4-2 SU in the AFC South this year, 1 game behind the Tennessee Titans. The AFC South is one of the most underrated divisions in football, so every division game is magnified. Houston will look to beat the Colts for the 2nd time this season tonight. The Texans are 2-0 both SU and ATS this season on the road, beating the Redskins and Raiders. RB Arian Foster will look to dominate the Colts defense yet again, as he rushed for 231 YDS against them this year. Foster is 4th in the NFL with 635 rushing YDS, along with 6 TD's this season. QB Matt Schaub is the leader of this offense, and he's thrown for more than 1,500 YDS with 9 TD's on the year. Houston is averaging 25.5 PPG this season, 6th best in the NFL. In order for the Texans to win tonight, they are going to have to improve defensively. The Texas are allowing a league worst 410 YPG this year, and have to go up against Peyton Manning on revenge in a Monday Night setting. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Houston is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Texans are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games following a bye week.

Key Injuries - LB DeMeco Ryans (achilles) is out.

Projected Score: 27

COLTS: (-5.5, O/U 50) Indianapolis has beaten Houston 15 of their past 17 tries. That being said, the Colts have plenty of revenge as they get ready to play the Texans tonight. The Colts lost 24-34 SU in Week 1 of this year, in a very embarrassing defeat. Indianapolis is 4-2 SU this season, with both losses coming within their division. The Colts need to win tonight to avoid starting the year 0-3 in the AFC South. QB Peyton Manning leads a Colts offense that is missing numerous key starters, due to several injuries. Manning is directing a Colts offense that is averaging 27.2 PPG, 3rd best in the NFL. Manning has thrown for more than 1,900 YDS, including 13 TD's against 2 INT's. Indianapolis will look to take advantage of the worst defense in the NFL statistically tonight in the Texans. Defensively, Indianapolis will be looking to stop the rushing attack of Houston. The Colts allowed Arian Foster to rush for 231 YDS in Week 1, something that can't happen again. The Colts are allowing more than 137 rushing YPG, 6th worst in the NFL this season. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Indianapolis is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the AFC.

Colts are 6-1 ATS last 7 Monday games.
Over is 9-4 last 13 Monday games.

Key Injuries - WR Austin Collie (hand) is out.

Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (10/31 - 11/1)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (10/31 - 11/1)

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