NFL week 8

[roccodean]

Getting these in early for the best line, may upgrade

4* Detroit -2 over Washington (probable upgrade)

3* Cinci -2 over Mia

[roccodean]

Detroit will probably be GOY

[Dat Boi E]

good luck on Sunday, Rocco!

[roccodean]

analysis to follow

4* Detroit -2 over Washington (Possible upgrade to 5*)

3* Cinci -1.5 over Miami

2* New Orleans -1 over Pitt

2* San Diego -3.5 over Tenn

[bryce]

Best of luck Rocco!

[roccodean]

no goy on detroit unfortunately but a strong card nonetheless. good luck

4* Detroit -2 over Washington
Note: This is a 4* at -3 or better
You may be asking yourself why a 1-5 teams is a favorite against a 4-3 team and the answer is because Vegas know what they are doing. Vegas knows that Detroit is a winner so they have to set the Skins as a dog to get public money on Washington. Although about 70% of the public is on Washington (which is good because the public is often wrong) the line shot from -1 to 2.5 (and 3 at many offshore books) which tells you the smart money is on Detroit. Washington is in a horrible situation here. They are coming off a close win at Chicago (which they should have lost) and four consecutive games that were decided by 5 or less. Their tank is on empty! On the flip side of the ball the all of Detroits 5 losses have been close. Discounting their loss to Minnesota (they lost by 14 but the Vikes scored a late garbage TD) their losses have been by about 4 points/game against strong opponents. Although this line sounds skewed, my math system has the Lions -5. Statistically, Detroit will move the ball easily on a Skin's D that allows 4.7 YPR (25th) and 7.1 YPPA (20th). Detroit's D is below average (30th vs run and 20th vs pass), but Washington is going to be so flat it won't matter. If Detroit is not more than -1 in turnovers (which you cannot predict) they win this game decidedly.

3* Cinci -1 over Miami
Cincinnati is in a great schedule spot for a win here as they are off 3 losses SU and ATS. I see Palmer and company having a huge game versus a Miami D that allows 11.7 YPP (28th). On the other side of the ball, Miami is only average offensively (24th rushing and 15th passing) and the Bengals D will have no problem stopping them. My math system has Cinci -1.5 so the line is on the money. There are two great trends favoring the Bengals. One 86-38 ATS and is based on Cinci's recent losses and the other 112-57 ATS based on statistical analysis. Take the Bengals as a 3*!

2* New Orleans -1 over Pitt
The Saints are obviously not as bad as they looked last week, so I think they have good line value here. Pittsburgh is off a tough road win and their second of three consecutive road games. Pitt is a solid team, but some of their success is based on a +8 ratio and after the Saints debacle last week I think they handle the ball better this week. Brees and they boys look to have a big day versus a Pitt pass D that is average (15th). There is a great trend (48-21 ATS) favoring the Saints based on their loss last week. Da Saints!

2* San Diego -3.5 over Tenn
San Diego is the best 2-5 team I have seen. Sometimes records and scoreboards lie, but stats don't. When you see a team that looks good statistically but this is not translating to wins it is usually turnovers or special teams. In the Chargers case it is both. They are -8 in turnover ratio and in the NFL turnovers have been proven to be 80% independent, hence this is unlikely to continue. The Chargers special teams are poor and based on my numbers this decreases their ratings by 1.8 points. The chargers are 14th in YPR and 1st in YPPA. Amazingly, they are 3rd in YPR defense and 1st in YPPA defense. These numbers will translate to wins, and I think it will start this week. Tennessee is in a tough schedule position also where they play 4 out of 5 road games.

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco i am on the opposite of the lions though

[10DimeBry]

GL today rocco

[Kaptain]

gl today....give em hell....nice write ups

[jt4545]

Gl today

[LeRoy]

GL Rocco Like them all

[roccodean]

3-1...17-9 on year...lets keep killin those books!