Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-25-2010, 08:00 PM

West Virginia 6-point favorites at UConn

The Big East Conference takes center stage Friday night when West Virginia travels to Connecticut. The Mountaineers just dropped out of the top-25 poll after an unexpected home loss, while the Huskies are still searching for their first conference victory.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened West Virginia as a six-point road ‘chalk’ over UConn, with no total posted. ESPN2 will provide coverage of Friday’s Big East battle from Rentschler Field.

West Virginia (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) had won two games in a row SU and four consecutive ATS before Saturday’s setback to Syracuse as a 13 ½-point home favorite, 19-14. The combined 33 points failed to eclipse the 43 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.

There was no scoring in the second half, and the Mountaineers failed to produce any points after a pair of first-quarter touchdowns. West Virginia finished the contest with advantages in first downs (20-12), passing yards (178-63) and time of possession (31:48-28:12). The Mountaineers lost the turnover battle (3-1), and those three interceptions produced nine points for the Orange.

Quarterback Geno Smith was 20-of-37 passing for 178 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. Running back Noel Devine paced the ground game with 24 carries for 122 yards, while wideout Jock Sanders caught three passes for 53 yards.

UConn (3-4 SU and ATS) is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing skid after getting blanked by Louisville Saturday as a three-point road underdog, 26-0. The 26 points never seriously threatened the 53-point closing total, ending a string of three consecutive ‘over’ outings.

The Huskies were dominated across the board, trailing the Cardinals in first downs (20-11), rushing yards (160-108), passing yards (195-87), turnovers forced (3-0) and time of possession (37:27-22:33). UConn only surrendered one offensive touchdown, but Louisville also scored on a 74-yard punt return and four field goals.

The Huskies had to use two quarterbacks after starter Michael Box went 4-of-12 passing for 35 yards with an interception before leaving the game with a concussion. Backup signal caller Zach Frazer completed 6-of-8 passes for 52 yards, while running back Jordan Todman ran 19 times for 80 yards.

West Virginia is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the previous six meetings with UConn after prevailing last season as an eight-point home ‘chalk,’ 28-24. The combined 52 points eclipsed the 46 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 4-1 the last five games in this series.

The Mountaineers are just 2-6 ATS the previous eight games versus a team with a losing record. The Huskies have seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 their last eight conference games, and the ‘over’ is 14-3 their past 17 home outings.

West Virginia offensive tackle Nick Kindler is ‘out’ for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. The Mountaineers do not play again until Nov. 13 when they host Cincinnati.

UConn quarterback Michael Box (concussion), fullback Anthony Sherman (leg), safety Kijuan Dabney (head) and linebacker David Kenney (leg) are ‘questionable’ versus the Mountaineers, while running back Robbie Frey (knee) and offensive tackle Jimmy Bennett (hand) are ‘out.’ The Huskies follow this matchup with a Nov. 11 home date with Pittsburgh.

Friday’s forecast for East Hartford, Connecticut calls for mostly sunny skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 56 degrees and a low of 37.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-26-2010, 01:55 AM

NCAAF
Tuesday, October 26Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET Boise State -37.5 500
Boise State - Under 63.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 10-26-2010, 07:46 PM

No. 3 Boise State favored by 38 on Tuesday

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS (3-4)
at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (6-0)

Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Boise State -38, Total: OFF

Boise State looks to stay unbeaten as it hosts Louisiana Tech in the first Tuesday game in the history of its program. The Broncos have won 20 straight games and rank third in the BCS standings behind Auburn and Oregon. But considering Boise has outscored the Bulldogs 184-41 in the past four meetings on its blue home turf, this game has all the makings of a big-time blowout.

Louisiana Tech has won two straight games since dropping four in a row. The Bulldogs beat Utah State 24-6 and Idaho 48-35, both at home. Their past two road games have been awful, losing 41-21 at Hawaii and 48-16 at Texas A&M. But the big reason they are such enormous underdogs is their horrendous defense which ranks 118th out of 120 FBS teams in passing yards (297 YPG) and 113th in total yardage allowed (449 YPG). Only six FBS teams have a worse turnover margin per game than La. Tech’s -1.14 average (12 takeaways, 20 giveaways).

Boise State has been favored by 43.5, 38 and 40 points in the past three weeks and has covered each of those games, winning by 59, 43 and 48 points respectively. BSU ranks fourth in the nation in yardage (524 YPG) and scoring (47.5 PPG). QB Kellen Moore has had another amazing season. After an absurd 39 TD/3 INT ratio last season, he’s even better so far this year with 16 TD and just one interception. Moore threw for 354 yards and three scores in last year’s 45-35 win over La. Tech. The Broncos also have an excellent defense that leads the nation in total defense (210 YPG) and rushing defense (59 YPG). They rank second in the land behind TCU in scoring defense (12.3 PPG).

Louisiana Tech is 6-4 ATS in the past 10 meetings, but the FoxSheets give three big reasons to pick Boise State to cover the 38-point spread.

BOISE ST is 30-6 ATS (83.3%, +23.4 Units) off a road win against a conference rival since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 46.4, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 4*).

BOISE ST is 58-19 ATS (75.3%, +37.1 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 43.7, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - A road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (51-20 since 1992.) (71.8%, +29 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 05:57 PM

Conference Play ATS Trends

As we approach the approximate midway point of the college football conference season, we decided to take a look at recent history to determine the best and worst ATS college football teams when playing within their BCS conference. Which teams have been overvalued with inflated spreads based on past success? And what teams continue to be overlooked by bettors and oddsmakers alike? We researched back to 2006 to get a five-year sample of ATS in-conference records for the six BCS conferences and found some interesting trends. Note that these records include conference championship games.
Best conference records ATS
1) OREGON ST. 27-12 (69%)
2) VIRGINIA TECH 26-12 (68%)
3) OHIO ST. 24-12 (67%)
4) CINCINNATI 18-10 (64%)
5) OKLAHOMA 22-15 (59%)
6) ARIZONA 23-17 (58%)

All six BCS conferences are represented in this six-pack of ATS winners, and three of the schools start with the letter O -- Oregon State, Ohio State and Oklahoma. Oregon State leads the way with a crazy 27-12 ATS record. The Beavers are 10-2 ATS against Pac-10 opponents over the past two years including a 3-0 mark this season.

Virginia Tech is right behind at 26-12 ATS against ACC foes. The Hokies are currently on a six-game ATS (and SU) win streak. They have been favored in each of these six games by an average of 16.3 PPG and have won by an average of 24.0 PPG (250 to 106).

Ohio State is the only Big Ten team on the list, but Illinois just misses at 57% ATS. The Buckeyes were at least two games above .500 ATS from 2006 to 2009, but OSU is only 2-2 ATS this year.

Cincinnati is the beast of the Big East with four straight winning ATS seasons in conference play. The Bearcats are 1-1 this season. Connecticut just misses this list at 57% (17-13).

Oklahoma hasn’t been as consistent as the rest of this bunch. The Sooners went 7-2 ATS in Big 12 play in both 2006 and 2008, but are 8-11 ATS in the other three years.

Arizona ran off four straight ATS winning seasons in Pac-10 play from 2006 to 2009, but are just 1-3 ATS this season.

Worst conference records ATS
1) LSU 11-23 (32%)
2) MIAMI-FL 12-23 (34%)
3) WASHINGTON 14-26 (35%)
4) LOUISVILLE 11-19 (37%)
5) COLORADO 13-21 (38%)
6) USC 16-24 (40%)

Five of the six BCS conferences are represented here with two Pac-10 schools and zero Big Ten schools. LSU is a bit of a surprise at 11-23 (and four pushes) considering the Tigers are 25-13 (66%) straight up against SEC opponents. Their usually weak non-conference schedule is a likely cause of LSU’s inflated spreads that they rarely end up covering.

Miami-FL and conference foe North Carolina are the only two BCS teams with five straight seasons of .500 or worse records ATS. Miami went 3-5, 1-6, 3-5 and 3-5 before its 2-2 record so far this year.

Washington was 0-9 ATS in 2008 and is just 1-3 ATS this season.

Louisville has a 4-12 ATS record in the past three seasons.

Colorado is one of seven winless ATS teams in BCS conferences this year, posting an 0-2-1 mark.

USC had four consecutive losing ATS seasons in Pac-10 play before its 3-1 ATS mark in 2010.

Below are some other recent trends worth noting in regards to ATS records in conference play for BCS schools:

2010 Unbeaten conference records ATS
Michigan State 4-0
Virginia Tech 4-0
Missouri 3-0
Oregon State 3-0
Pittsburgh 2-0

2010 Winless conference records ATS
UCLA 0-4
Kansas 0-3
Michigan 0-3
Northwestern 0-3
Virginia 0-3
Colorado 0-2-1
Connecticut 0-2

Five straight .500 or better ATS seasons in conference play
Cincinnati 4-2, 4-2, 4-3, 5-2, 1-1
Minnesota: 4-4, 4-3, 5-3, 4-4, 2-2
Ohio State: 6-2, 5-3, 5-3, 6-2, 2-2
Oregon: 4-4, 5-4, 5-4, 6-3, 2-2
Oregon State: 5-4, 6-3, 6-3, 7-2, 3-0
South Carolina: 5-3, 4-3, 4-3, 4-4, 3-2

Fiive straight .500 or worse ATS seasons in conference play
Miami-FL: 3-5, 1-6, 3-5, 3-5, 2-2
North Carolina 3-5, 4-4, 4-4, 4-4, 2-2

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:32 PM

Bowl Game Predictions
October 25, 2010
By Bruce Marshall

New Mexico (Dec. 18 at Albuquerque)...Air Force vs. La Tech. With the Armed Forces Bowl also having the option to select Army as well as a Mountain West entry such as Air Force, we suspect the Metroplex event to opt for West Point (which we project to be bowl-eligible at 6-6) and spare the Falcons their fourth straight trip. The MWC might not be able to fill all of its allotted slots, but it does have a space waiting in friendly Albuquerque territory that the Force would probably be glad to fill. We’re not sure the WAC will have enough bowl-eligibles to fill this spot, with Sonny Dykes’ La Tech the best bet to get to 6-6.

Humanitarian (Dec. 18 at Boise)...Fresno State vs. Toledo. Remember when this bowl used to showcase hometown Boise State, before the Broncos got too big for it? Now, the Humanitarian has moved up on the calendar from its recent late December and even early January slots to the first day of bowl action in mid-December. We’re projecting the WAC to send Fresno State, despite losing last week to Hawaii, for a potential shootout vs. MAC rep Toledo.

New Orleans (Dec. 18 at New Orleans)...Troy vs. East Carolina. Troy is not only setting the pace in the Sun Belt, but is the only Belt entry we are confident will be bowl-eligible. The Trojans should return to the Superdome after a one-year absence. Ruffin McNeill’s pleasantly-surprising ECU could fit nicely here from the C-USA bowl queue.

St. Petersburg (Dec. 21 at St. Petersburg)...Southern Miss vs. Syracuse. The Golden Eagles could still win C-USA and get to the Liberty Bowl, but should nonetheless be "bowling" for the ninth straight year. Surprising Syracuse announced itself as a legit contender in the wide-open Big East race after last week’s win at West Virginia and could be excused for dreaming about the BCS. Really!

Las Vegas (Dec. 22 at Las Vegas)...Utah vs. Cal. It would be a travesty for the loser of the November 6 Utah-TCU MWC showdown to be relegated to Sam Boyd Stadium. But gridiron politics being what they are, we can’t envision a pair of MWC teams in the BCS By the way, does anyone realize how cold it gets at night in Las Vegas in late December?

Poinsettia (Dec. 23 at San Diego)...San Diego State vs. Navy. This matchup would feature Navy, which has a spot guaranteed in San Diego, a very appropriate destination with a west coast base at nearby Coronado plus Camp Pendleton, where several Annapolis grads are on the premises. The hometown Aztecs, on the verge of their first bowl since 1998, would be a popular choice to fill the Mountain West’s slot at Qualcomm Stadium.

Hawaii (Dec. 24 at Honolulu)...Hawaii vs. SMU. This bowl always comes with a WAC caveat in that the hometown UH Warriors automatically qualify if they are bowl-eligible. And red-hot UH has already met the criteria, so we slot the Warriors into their familiar role. A matchup vs. SMU might sell out Aloha Stadium, with June Jones returning to the islands (where he brought the Mustangs last December), although after last week’s loss vs. Houston, the 4-4 Mustangs have to hustle to become bowl-eligible themselves.

Little Caesars (Dec. 26 at Detroit)...Purdue vs. Northern Illinois. The Big Ten bowl picture gets a bit dicey at the bottom end, where we’re not convinced any from Purdue, Penn State, or Indiana will win the requisite six for postseason eligibility. If the 4-3 Boilermakers make it, they won’t do better than an invite to Ford Field vs. one of the top two MAC teams, which we project to include hot NIU.

Independence (Dec. 27 at Shreveport)...Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech. A opening will likely occur in Shreveport with the Mountain West unlikely to fill its allotted slot. At the moment, this might be a landing spot for Cincy if the Bearcats can get to 6-6. Georgia Tech has slipped from its BCS-level a year ago and might fall all of the way to this low-level ACC berth in Shreveport.

Champs Sports (Dec. 28 at Orlando)...Miami-Florida vs. South Florida. Wouldn’t it be appropriate to fit a pair of Sunshine State teams in a bowl game at Orlando? Miami played here and lost to Wisconsin a year ago, but the Big East takes the Big Ten’s place this year, and the nearby Bulls, off a nice win at Cincinnati, make for a good fit.

Insight (Dec. 28 at Tempe)...Penn State vs. Texas Tech. We’re not sure the Big Ten will be able to fill this slot or the one at the Little Caesar’s Bowl, but we suspect Penn State has a better chance of getting bowl-eligible than either Purdue or Indiana, so we pencil the Nittany Lions into Tempe. Last Saturday’s win at Colorado means Tommy Tuberville’s 4-3 Texas Tech ought to get bowl-eligible, especially with a game remaining vs. Weber State.

Eagle Bank (Dec. 29 at Washington, D.C.)...Maryland vs. Houston. Although Maryland might end up the worst 7-team win since Vanderbilt’s 7-4 finish in 1975 (check out the Commodore logs if you don’t believe us), the Terps are close to an unlikely bowl invitation. And very-nearby RFK Stadium would be a convenient and cost-effective destination. Houston once had far-fetched hopes of becoming an unlikely BCS Buster before Heisman candidate QB Case Keenum went down with a knee injury.

Texas (Dec. 29 at Houston)...Kansas State vs. Northwestern. Purple would be the color of choice at Reliant Stadium. Both of these Wildcats suffered tough losses last week but each still figures to end up bowl-eligible. Alamo (Dec. 29 at San Antonio)...Baylor vs. Oregon State. The surprising Bears are moving up the Big XII bowl queue and are guaranteed to be making their first postseason trip since appearing in this bowl sixteen years ago in an unsightly 10-3 loss to Washington State. The Alamo Bowl welcomes back the Pac-10, which was involved in the first few years of this bowl game back in the early and mid ‘90s, and a trip to San Antonio would fit the Beavers’ recent postseason pattern.

Armed Forces (Dec. 30 at Dallas)...Tulsa vs. Army. This game temporarily moves across the Metroplex from Fort Worth to SMU’s Gerald J. Ford (not to be confused with President Gerald R. Ford) Stadium, due to renovation work at TCU’s Amon Carter Stadium, the normal home of this bowl game. Air Force could earn its fourth straight trip to this aptly-named event, but has other bowl landing spots with its MWC affiliation. Army is also in the queue for this assignment, and we project the Black Knights getting postseason eligible for 2nd-year HC Rich Ellerson and going "bowling" for the first time since 1996.

Yankee Pinstripe (Dec. 30 at New York City)...Notre Dame vs. Texas. The first bowl game to be played in New York City since the 1962 Gotham Bowl at the Polo Grounds! With Notre Dame eligible for one of the Big East bowl slots, the Irish could prove irresistible to organizers at the new Yankee Stadium, although we’re wondering if the Irish can even get to the requisite 6-6 after last week’s loss to Navy. Any number of Big XII bowl eligibles could provide the opposition; Texas, which has played itself out of a featured bowl assignment, would provide the sort of cachet this new bowl would love.

Music City (Dec. 30 at Nashville)...Kentucky vs. North Carolina. Basketball, anyone? The Wildcats have spent part of the holidays in Nashville three of the last four years and could do so again as one of the likely lower-seeded SEC Bowl entries (we’re projecting the Wildcats to just squeeze in at 6-6). Meanwhile, North Carolina’s loss at Miami last week indicates the Tar Heels might not do much better than Nashville.

Holiday (Dec. 30 at San Diego)...Stanford vs. Oklahoma State. The Cardinal are still hoping for better than this (such as the Rose), but have already stubbed their toe against Oregon, and another loss in the Pac-10 probably knocks them out of the BCS at-large equation. Ok State is still very much in the Big XII South mix despite last week’s loss vs. Nebraska, but San Diego appears to be a likely landing spot.

Meineke Car Care (Dec. 31 at Charlotte)...NC State vs. Louisville. With the way things are shaking out in the Big East, who is to say surging Louisville can’t make it to the BCS? Meanwhile, the Wolfpack would make a nice regional fit in Charlotte.

Sun (Dec. 31 at El Paso)...Miami-Florida vs. Arizona. Both are still in with a shout of the BCS, with Arizona’s November 6 test vs. Stanford a crucial for likely Pac-10 runner-up honors behind Oregon and a possible chance to get a backdoor invitation to the Rose Bowl if the Ducks make the BCS title game. Miami is breathing again in the ACC race after leveling North Carolina last week, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see this rematch of the ‘94 Fiesta Bowl, a 29-0 Cats win and a high point of Dick Tomey’s "Desert Swarm" days in Tucson.

Liberty (Dec. 31 at Memphis)...UCF vs. Mississippi State. George O’Leary’s UCF seems to be emerging as the class of C-USA and could get a return engagement in Memphis against regional favorite MSU, which beat the Golden Knights 10-3 in this same bowl three years ago.

Chick fil-A (Dec. 31 at Atlanta)...Clemson vs. Florida. The old "Charley Pell connection" would be recalled if these two get together for an interesting regional matchup at the Georgia Dome. Urban Meyer’s Gators have likely played their way out of not only the BCS but any of those New Year’s Day games for SEC teams in their home state, which would be confirmed by a loss vs. Georgia this week.

Dallas Classic (Jan. 1 at Dallas)...Michigan vs. Oklahoma. With the traditional Cotton Bowl game having moved to Jerry Jones’ Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, the old Cotton Bowl venue (which has been spruced up) welcomes a new game to Fair Park pitting Big Ten and Big XII foes. Michigan’s BCS dreams have been crushed in recent weeks (as likely have QB Denard Robinson’s Heisman hopes). Oklahoma is still in the BCS frame, but after losing last week to Missouri, the Sooners are likely going to be on the outside looking into the BCS unless they win the Big XII title game.

Outback One (Jan. 1 at Tampa)...Iowa vs. Arkansas. Iowa’s BCS hopes took a hit last week in the loss to Wisconsin, but the Hawkeyes should still end up somewhere in Florida on New Year’s. As should Arkansas, whose path to the BCS is blocked by Auburn and Arkansas in the SEC West.

Capital One (Jan. 1 at Orlando)...Georgia vs. Wisconsin. A few weeks ago, Georgia fans were talking about running HC Mark Richt out of Athens. Three wins later, the Dawgs are poised to get to get to the SEC title game and probably a spot in Florida on New Year’s as long as they can beat Florida this week. Wisconsin is still dreaming much bigger things, but we suspect the Badgers rate a tad behind Michigan State and Ohio State (upset over the Buckeyes notwithstanding) in the Big Ten BCS queue.

Gator (Jan. 1 at Jacksonville)...Illinois vs. South Carolina. No longer an ACC-Big East battle, this one is the latest addition to what now is a Big Ten-SEC trifecta on New Year’s Day. Illinois rates as one of the year’s surprise teams, and this bowl berth should take the heat off Illini HC Ron Zook. Meanwhile, Steve Spurrier likely spends somewhere in Florida on New Year’s.

Rose (Jan. 1 at Pasadena)...TCU vs. Ohio State. BCS mechanics could be working overtime here, as Rose Bowl organizers will risk a huge p.r. backlash if they opt to take a Pac-10 runner-up (assuming an unbeaten Oregon makes the BCS title game), such as Arizona or maybe Stanford, instead of an undefeated TCU. Expect another book from Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel in such a scenario.

Fiesta (Jan. 1 at Glendale)...Nebraska vs. Auburn. The Cornhuskers’ BCS hopes are riding on this week’s game vs. Missouri; a loss to the Tigers puts the Huskers at 6-2 and likely out of the BCS picture. And a spot here in Glendale assumes Nebraska will eventually win the Big XII title. Whatever, it’s all still to play for in the Huskers’ last spin around the Big XII oval. Auburn’s regular-season finale at Alabama will likely determine the SEC West champ, but even the loser figures to have a shot at a BCS at-large.

Orange (Jan. 3 at Miami)...Virginia Tech vs. Pitt. A few weeks ago we wouldn’t have considered projecting either these two into the BCS. But their recent emergence is indicative of how fluid the 2010 season has become. Now we think the Hokies and Panthers y might be the best teams in the ACC and Big East, respectively.

Sugar (Jan. 4 at New Orleans)...Michigan State vs. Alabama. We’re almost pulling for the Spartans to finish the regular season unbeaten to see how Jim Delany and the BCS opeatives are going to react if an unbeaten WAC (Boise State) or MWC (TCU or Utah) rep would be able to elbow the Spartans out of a BCS title game. The fireworks and arm-twisting would be epic!

GMAC (Jan. 6 at Mobile)...Middle Tennessee vs. Temple. One slot in Mobile is reserved for the Sun Belt, but at this moment it’s tricky projecting another Belt team to get eligible. Let’s see if MTSU can go on a late-season run like last year to get to 7-5. Meanwhile, Temple should fit somewhere in the MAC bowl mix for HC Al "Touch of" Golden, a Penn State alum who might be positioning himself as the man to take over in Happy Valley whenever Joe Paterno hangs ‘em up (maybe 2020?).

Cotton (Jan. 7 at Dallas)...Missouri vs. LSU. Why do we get the feeling a one-loss Mizzou might get sent to the Cotton bowl as it did in 2007? We’d suggest to Gary Pinkel to keep his Tigers unbeaten if they want a spot at the BCS table. LSU’s unbeaten run was always likely to end as it did last week at Auburn, and another couple of defeats probably sends the Baton Rouge crew to Dallas instead of one of the Florida New Year’s Day games.

Birmingham (Jan. 8 at Birmingham)...West Virginia vs. Ohio. The Big East postseason picture is a jumble. But it’s worth noting that the available bowls for Big East teams really drops off after the BCS, and the Mountaineers could end up in Birmingham. Frank Solich’s Ohio might be the hottest MAC team at the moment and will be "bowling" somewhere. We don’t think the SEC will be able to fill its allotted slot in this game unless Ole Miss or Tennessee get to 6 wins.

Kraft (Jan. 9 at San Francisco)...Nevada vs. Washington. We’re not sure the Pac-10 can even fill its allotted slot at AT&T Park. If it can, we suspect U-Dub has a better chance than Arizona State or UCLA to reach six wins. Nevada’s BCS dreams ended in that October 16 loss at Hawaii, and San Francisco now looks a more likely bowl destination for the Wolf Pack.

BCS title game (January 10 at Glendale)...Boise State vs. Oregon. This would shake the college football power structure to its roots, but it’s about time. And right now we suspect it is the most-likely matchup.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:36 PM

Behind the 8-Ball
October 25, 2010
By Marc Lawrence

Game 8 of the college football season is often a crossroads for most teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.

According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and ignored... especially when they take out as road dogs against an opponent off a loss in this situation. That’s because teams in this scenario are a not-so-pretty 33-63-3 since 1980. This week we’ll be queuing-up against two schools:

Colorado at Oklahoma
New Mexico at Colorado State

Put them in against a foe off a SU & ATS loss and they dip to 22-47-2 ATS. Road dogs of 9 or more points against these same opponents are worse, going 11-35-2 ATS. Both the Rams and Lobos fit the bill this week. And if our qualified ‘play-against’ Game 8 road dog is taking on a .500 or less foe they scratch faster than you can say “break ‘em” - going 1-24-2 ATS. New Mexico figures to get racked this week.

Go ahead. You make the call. 8-ball in the corner pocket for the win!

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:37 PM

News and Notes - Week 9
October 27, 2010

The AP’s #1 team in the country had fallen for 2 straight weeks but Oregon faced UCLA at home so there was no such pressure. Their quick strike offense dominated UCLA which was playing without starting QB Prince. UCLA’s first 2 drives were solid but one resulted in an int at the 10 and the other was a 25 yd FG. Each drive was time consuming and Oregon basically used 2:00 drives all game and scored TD’s on their first 4 poss which included a 4&6, 25 yd pass to the 16. The Ducks led 32-3 at the half with a 357-136 yd edge. UO did get a 6/1pl TD drive after recovering a fmbl and later a 2/1pl drive after rec another fmbl with 4:46 left. UCLA scored a TD with 1:53 left for the final 60-13 margin...

Cincinnati’s defense has 8 soph starters, the youngest D in the BCS. The BJ Daniels-led USF offense hadn’t scored a TD in the last 2 games and while UC had 29-13 FD and 590-378 yd edges, USF had a couple of big plays incl a 70 yd TD pass and led by 2 scores for most of the 2H. UC QB Collaros was inj’d (check status) and Chazz Anderson came in for UC’s final drive. USF led 24-16 when UC was SOD at the USF30 and on the next play USF got a 70 yd TD pass to lead 31-16. They also led 38-23. UC got a TD with 5:28 left and USF conservatively ran it 3x and punted. UC with Anderson in at QB got to the USF16 needing a TD and 2 pt for the tie but on 4&5 under heavy pressure, he threw incomplete...

The situation greatly favored Ohio St last week. They were off a loss, were no longer playing with pressure of an unbeaten season so they could unleash the offense and were playing with legitimate revenge after losing only one B10 game the previous year and that was an upset loss to Purdue. As you would expect, the Buckeyes dominated. At the half they led 42-0 scoring TD’s on 6 of their 8 poss as they punted once and were int’d at the PU16. OSU had a 415-47 yd edge. OSU went through the motions in the 2H with backup QB’s Joe Bauserman and Kenny Guiton in but still added a TD on a 67/10pl drive with 7:24 left...

Rutgers’ top WR Mohamed Sanu, who was also the team’s leading rusher and operates the team out of the Wildcat offense, only had 1 rush att due to inj. Chas Dodd, in his first true road start hit 8-19-62 with an int and Dion Lewis got on track with 130 yards rushing and 7.6 ypc. Of course RU was playing with a heavy heart for DL Eric LeGrand and we are hopeful that he is able to make a full recovery after his injury vs Army. Pitt had 24-12 FD and 513-203 yd edges. At the half it was 247-93 but RU blocked a punt for a TD to set up the tie. Pitt scored 3 TD’s and 2 FG’s on their first 5 poss of the 2H to lead 41-14 and RU got a garbage TD with 1:30 left...

Ohio only had a 371-343 yd edge vs Miami but had a 6-2 TO edge. MU jumped out to a 7-0 lead but in the 1H would miss FG’s of 45 and 25 yards and OU led 13-7 despite MU having a 183-177 yd edge. MU fmbl’d early 3Q setting up a 48/1pl TD by OU. Trailing 27-13 MU was int’d at the OU40 then int’d at their own 25. The 2nd set up OU for a 25/5pl TD drive with 3:10 left. MU was SOD at the MU32...

Indiana actually had 21-14 FD and 388-289 yd edges. At the half IN had a 227-164 yd edge but a fmbl at their own 23 set Illinois up for a 2pl TD and Indy was also int’d and ret’d 68 yards for a TD and after a 63/12pl drive settled for a 19 yd FG and trailed 27-10 at the half. Ill blk’d 2 Indy punts to open the 3Q and while they fmbl’d after the first, they blk’d the 2nd for a safety to lead 29-10. IL closed the scoring with a 66 yd IR TD with :44 left...

Penn St was off a loss and off a bye which helped their LB corps get healthier. Minnesota was playing their first game under interim HC Horton and with President Obama scheduled to make an on campus appearance, the home attendance was announced at 48,479. It was smallest crowd in 12 games at TCF Bank Stadium and even appeared smaller than that. PSU QB Rob Bolden who came in with a 2-6 ratio the previous 5, at one point hit 9 straight passes but was inj’d in the 2Q. They bypassed backup Kevin Newsome (flu) for 3rd string Matthew McGloin. McGloin’s first pass was a 42 yd TD which made it 21-7. McGloin had an uneven game hitting 6-13-76 and was int’d on the next drive. PSU led 31-14 but UM got a TD with 5:01 left to pull within 12. PSU missed a 37 yd FG and UM did get to the PSU39 where they were SOD on 4&7...

It was the Irish’s most lopsided loss vs Navy since 1963. It was a Navy home game in an NFL Stadium but ND had a healthy amount of the crowd. ND was playing without their top 2 WR’s, Theo Riddick and Michael Floyd and also one game earlier TE Kyle Rudolph was ruled OFY with inj. Two crucial int’s and an SOD changed the game. ND on their opening poss had a 4&gl at the 1 but were SOD. Trailing 14-10 they were int’d at their 30 with 1:59 left in the half setting up a Navy 5pl drive with the TD coming with :14 left in the half to lead 21-10. ND was also int’d at the Navy 27 and the Mids went 73/10pl for a TD to lead 35-10. ND was SOD at the Navy29 in the 3Q and Dayne Crist was replaced by Tommy Rees and Rees led a 76/10pl TD drive with 6:12 left. Navy went 37/10pl ending the game at the ND35 and beat the Irish for the 3rd time in 4 years having lost the previous 43...

Syracuse RB Delone Carter left the game in the 2Q with injury but backup Antwon Bailey rushed for 94 yds on 19 carries. WV finished with a 286-246 yd edge. WV jumped to leads of 7-3 and 14-10 and then rec’d a fmbl’d KO and had a 1st&gl at the SU8 but was int’d at the goal line. Geno Smith came in with a 17-3 ratio completing 68% but hit just 20-37-178 yd with 3 int and 5 sks. He was int’d on the 3rd play setting up an SU 28 yd FG. His 2nd int cost WV a chance to score and set up SU for a 19 yd FG. Smith was int’d a 3rd time in the 1H and ret’d 48 yds to the WV12 setting up a 22 yd FG. At the half WV had a 185-178 yd edge but trailed 19-14. The 2H was mostly punts and WV’s got to the SU20 with plenty of time but Smith took a sack on 2nd & 10 and on 4&22 was sk’d again...

Iowa St came in having allowed 52 and 68 points the previous 2 weeks. Texas lost their 2nd game as a big fav this year. After the game HC Paul Rhoads called their first ever win over Texas “historic” and ISU players were jubilant...

In the 1H Marshall had a 186-167 yd edge was tied at 10. MU had the ball but were int’d at the EC46 with 3:30 left in the half. EC went 65/7pl for a TD then after another int with :36 left added a 40 yd FG to lead 20-10. EC got a TD and FG to open the 3Q and MU was SOD at the EC11. EC went 89/9pl for a TD to put it away, 37-10...

There were some key plays in Iowa’s loss to Wisconsin. Iowa had a great situational edge in the fact that UW was off their upset of Ohio St and they were at home. In the 1H Iowa had an xp blk’d and on a 30 yd FG att with 3:13 left in the half, they bobbled the snap and didn’t get the kick off. UI led 13-10. The Hawkeyes led 27-24 when they got an int at the UW26 and had a chance to put the game away but settled for a 40 yd FG. UW’s P ran up the middle and got a 17 yd run to the 43 as UI peeled back to cover the punt. UW later converted on 4&4 and got a TD with 1:06 left. The final crucial mistake came when UI got a FD at the UW39 with :12 left. The officials stopped the clock to move the chains, UI lined up at the LOS and all they had to do was spike the ball to save their last time-out. Instead, they called their final time-out needing a FG to win. A short pass for a 4 yd gain was tkl’d inbounds and without the time-out the clock ran out...

Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez set a frosh record with 329 yards passing and threw a career high 5 TD’s. This came after not having thrown more than 150 yards in his first 6 starts. OSU’s Kendall Hunter rushed for 201 yards. Justin Blackmon had 157 yards in rec. In the 1H Oklahoma St actually had a 344-255 yd edge and led 27-24 when Nebraska got a TD with :55 left in the half. The 2H was controlled by NU...

Boston College lost 3 defensive starters to inj vs Maryland. TO’s also hurt them in the 1H. MD got drives of 38 and 22 yds for TD’s following TO’s as Antwine Perez had 2 int and a FR and led 21-7 at the half with a 117-110 yd edge. MD led 24-7 after 3Q’s. BC got 2 TD’s to pull within 24-21. On their final 2 drives they dropped a slant pass on 4&3 at the MD31 and after MD went for it on 4&1 at the BC35 with 1:50 left, BC was spotted inches short on 4&1 with 1:13 left. MD took a knee twice...

Clemson had their 3rd crack at the Georgia Tech’s option in 2 years and held GT to 242 rush yds, their lowest rush total of the season and about 100 below their season avg. CU controlled matters early as on their first 4 poss they got 2 TD’s and settled for a 2 short FG’s and missed one and led 17-0. CU led 24-6 when GT converted on 4&2 then on 4&6 got a 9 yd TD pass to make it 24-13. GT missed a FG with 11:04 left and CU went on a 7:36 drive of 64/15pl and settled for a 22 yd FG with 3:28 left to make it 27-13 and GT threw a desperation pass on its next play that was int’d...

Colorado QB Tyler Hansen hit 9-10 passes for 62 yds but left with inj. Cody Hawkins still had CU in good shape hitting frosh Paul Richardson with 3 & 60 yd TD passes. Richardson became the first frosh in school history to have 2 TD’s rec in the same game. CU led 24-14 but missed a 35 yd FG with 12:49 left and Texas Tech took its first lead of the game with a 36 yd FG with 2:08 left in their 27-24 win...Cam Newton is the clear-cut favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and had a big game vs LSU’s excellent D. Auburn had a 526-243 yd edge. LSU was int’d at the AU14 but AU missed a 39 yd FG with 2:45 left 1H and LSU on 3&gl got a 2 yd Jefferson TD run to tie it at 10. Newton may have won the Heisman on a spectacular 49 yd TD run to make it 17-10 but LSU had a RB pass from Spencer Ware to Rueben Randle go 39 yds for a TD with 12:16 left to tie it. Three times LSU’s punter pinned AU at the 1. AU had the ball at their own 30 and with LSU’s D keying on Newton, Onterio McCalebb took off 70 yds down the sideline for a TD with 5:05 left...

Ark’s Ryan Mallett hit 13-24-196 and the game vs Mississippi was delayed by weather twice. Mallett DNR after the 2nd delay. Arkansas had some big plays as they were outFD’d 21-16. Joe Adams got a 97 yd PR TD, the longest in school history, topping the record set by Ken Hatfield who had a 95 yd PR TD vs Tulsa in 1963. Arkansas did lead 24-3 early 3Q but Mississippi battled back to 24-17. On 2nd & 10, Davis got a 71 yd TD run to make it 31-17. UM got a TD with 9:04 left and UA answered with a TD with 7:15 left, 38-24. UM went 75/7pl but on 3&gl from the 3 fmbl’d costing them a shot at the cover. UA punted with 1:06 left and UM got to the UA27 but their final pass was incomplete...

UAB had a 24-18 FD edge vs Miss St but there were 6 key plays which cost them the game. The game was tied at 10 at the half but UAB had a 207-103 yd edge. The first key play happened when UAB had a 1st & gl at the 3 but settled for an 18 yd FG. UAB fmbl’d the punt at their own 35 setting up an MSU TD early 2Q. MSU was pinned at its 1 when they got a 55 yd punt and illegal blk which changed the field position with UAB taking over at their 26 mid-2Q. In the 3Q UAB trailed 20-17 when they were SOD at the MSU31. UAB got a TD with 10:16 left, 24-23. There was a pers foul on the KO so MSU started at the UAB42. The next key play happened when MSU on 4&4 got a 6 yd run for a FD which set up their go-ahead 39 yd FG with 6:53 left. MSU was trying to run the clock taking over with 5:31 left at their own 29 when another key play happened, a 51 yd run by Perkins on 2nd & 14. That set up a 28 yd FG with 1:48 left. UAB still had a shot but fmbl’d the KO at their own 33 and on 3&2 MSU got a 10 yd QB run to escape with a 29-24 win.

FRONTDOOR / BACKDOOR COVERS -

The situation was great for Northwestern LW but they blew some opportunities. NU controlled the game leading 17-0 but MSU took over with 6:07 left in the half and got a TD with 2:49 left to get back in it, 17-7. In the 3Q MSU had the wind at their back and after NU’s 32 yd punt, MSU drove 48/3pl for a TD. NU drove 80/15pl for a TD to lead 24-14 after 3Q’s. MSU on 4&6 took a delay pen and on 4&11 with Fitzgerald calling for a punt safe, MSU faked it. Their P’s pass was covered by NU’s starting CB but he turned to the sidelines as he normally does on punt safes to avoid being hit in the back by the punt. The receiver hauled in a 21 yd pass to the 15 and the Spartans got a TD on the next play. MSU took over with 7:18 left after an NU punt. On 3&4 they gained 14 yds and on 4&1 got an 8 yd pass. The TD came on a tipped pass which was hauled in by Cunningham for a 28-27 lead with 2:00 left. A crucial pers foul on NU made it 1st & 25 so on 4&12 they fired incomplete from their 31. On 3&15 with a FD basically ending the game got a 25 yd TD run by Baker with 1:07 left putting them ahead of the spread for the only time in the game...

Idaho dominated New Mexico St in the 1H. They scored on 5 of their first 6 poss and led 31-0, the last score coming with :48 left in the half. NMSt got a 17 yd TD pass with :07 left to make it 31-7 at the half. NMS did miss a 43 yd FG in the 3Q and with 7:30 left in the game, trailing by 27, were stopped on 4&gl at the 1. NMS fmbl’d a punt at their 25 and Idaho got a 47 yd FG for a 37-7 lead and NMS punted with just 1:10 left but Idaho fmbl’d the punt at their 28 and on 3&10 NMS got a 28 yd TD pass with :19 left for the backdoor cover...

South Carolina had 25-11 FD and 484-250 yd edges vs Vanderbilt but actually trailed 7-0 when they took over with 1:03 left 1H. They went 59/7pl and got a TD on a 15 yd pass with :12 left to tie it at 7. In the 3Q SC went 93/12pl to lead 14-7 then went 56/9pl and had a 26 yd FG blk’d. It was still a one score game when SC took over with 7:34 left at their 28 and on 2nd & 10 they got a 72 yd TD pass to Jeffery to get ahead of the spread, 21-7. VU opted to punt on 4&6 from its own 20 with 5:34 left and its last drive was SOD at the SC48 with 1:25 left after a 5 yd run on 4&10.

MISLEADING FINALS - Florida Atlantic got an 80 yd TD pass to Jean to make it 13-9 and then had a TD in the EZ overturned and settled for a 36 yd FG to lead 16-9 in the 4Q vs Arkansas St. ASU did drive 69/6pl for a TD but then with the score tied at 16, Ark St got a 37 yd IR TD, ret’d a fmbl to the 1 setting up a TD and after an int drove 34/4pl for a TD. Their 3 TD’s came with a total of 39 yards offense making their 21 pt win very misleading...

It was misleading that BYU and Wyoming put up 45 points. BYU had a 293-173 yd edge. In the 1H WY had 3 plays that gained positive yards and in fact had -18 yds offense in the 1H. Despite their woeful offensive performance, WY had 10 pts as they got a 55 yd IR TD and after recovering a fmbl at the BYU20, lost 7 yards and got a 44 yd FG and only trailed 16-10. WY’s P twice used a rugby punts, but hit a WY players in the back and BYU recovered them the WY33 and WY24, the first setting up a TD. BYU finished with a 20-13 FD edge but didn’t have the game clinched until late as WY on 4&10 at the BYU25 had a pass batted in the air and caught by an OL for a 6 yd loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:39 PM

Trends to Watch - Week 9
October 26, 2010
By Bruce Marshall

FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE (Thursday, October 28)... NCS has covered last 5 and is 8-0-1 vs. line last 9 in series! Wolfpack also 19-11 as dog since Jim O’Brien arrived in ‘07 (8-5 as home dog that span) and 19-9 overall last 28 vs. number. Tech edge-NC State, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at UCONN (Friday, October 29)... Edsall 0-6 SU vs. WVU but Huskies were able to finally get cover vs. Mounties LY after dropping previous 5 vs. number since ‘04. UConn 0-3 SU and vs. line all-time vs. Mounties. Note Edsall 10-2 as home dog since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on series trends.

SYRACUSE at CINCINNATI... Bearcats only 1-4 vs. line last 5 as Big East host after USF loss. Cincy also 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at Nippert (no count OU at Paul Brown). Tech edge-slight to Cuse, based on Cincy’s recent Nippert woes.

UAB at SOUTHERN MISS... UAB managed surprise 30-17 win at Legion Field LY but USM had covered 6 of previous 7 in series. Golden Eagles still 6-2 last 8 vs. number as CUSA host. Tech edge-USM, based on extended trends.

PURDUE at ILLINOIS... Purdue 6-3-1 last 10 as dog (5-2-1 in role for Danny Hope). Illini 1-8 last 9 as chalk vs. FBS foes and 3-8 vs. number last 11 vs. FBS at Champaign-Urbana. Tech edge-Purdue, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at VIRGINIA... Canes have won and covered last 3 meetings but they’re just 12-21 their last 33 as chalk vs. FBS foes. Cavs 1-5 as home dog since LY. Tech edge-slight to Miami, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at PITTSBURGH... Pitt has won and covered big the last two vs. Lvl and covered last 3 meetings. But ‘Stache only 6-11 last 17 as home chalk. Charlie Strong 2-0 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-Louisville, based on extended Pitt home chalk woes.

MICHIGAN STATE at IOWA... Some real close battles the last few years including Iowa’s last-play win in ‘09, but Hawkeyes have nonetheless covered last 4 meetings and 6 of 7 since 2000. Ferentz currently on 18-9 spread run last 27 on board. Spartans only 7-7 as dog since ‘07. Tech edge-Iowa, based on series and team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at INDIANA... Very close games the last two years, both covered by Hoosiers including 21-19 upset at Bloomington in ‘08. But IU only 5-9 vs. spread last 14 as host vs. FBS teams. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on team trends.

CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE... Clemson has won and covered last two meetings including thunder & lightning-interrupted game LY. BC 1-10 vs. line last 11 on board and no covers last 6 at Chestnut Hill. Dabo 7-4 vs. line as visitor since mid '08. Tech edge-Clemson, based on team and recent series trends.

WAKE FOREST at MARYLAND... Wake has covered last 2 and 8 of last 10 vs. Maryland. Ralph 2-7 last 9 as home chalk vs. FBS foes and 4-16 last 20 laying points vs. FBS teams. Tech edge-Wake, based on team and extended series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN... Huskies on a nice roll with 6 straight covers. NIU has also dominated lately, with covers in last 3 and 8 of last 9 in series. WMU 1-5 vs. line vs. FBS at Waldo Stadium since LY and 4-12 last 16 as host. Tech edge-NIU, based on team and series trends.

TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA... Home team has won and covered the last 3 in this series after road team had covered the previous five. Spurrier 3-0 vs. line against FBS foes at home TY, now 8-2-1 in role last 11 at Columbia. Spurrier has covered 5 straight at Williams-Brice. Tech edge-SC, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at ARKANSAS... Vandy no covers last 2 as road dog TY after 18-4 mark previous 22 in role. These two haven’t met since '06 and haven’t met at Fayetteville since Jay Cutler beat Hogs 28-24 in 2005. Petrino 9-2 vs. line last 11 vs. FBS at Fayetteville. Tech edge-slight to Vandy, based on extended trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE... Note home team has covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Cats covered all five on reg.-season road LY but just 1-2 vs. points in role TY. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on recent team and series trends.

AUBURN at OLE MISS... Rebs had covered 3 straight vs. Auburn prior to 33-20 loss LY. Ole Miss 9-2 its last 10 as dog (6-3 for Houston Nutt). Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on dog marks.

BAYLOR at TEXAS... Baylor hasn’t been closer than 21 against Texas since 1998. Bears 11-2 vs. line their last 13 with Griffin at QB, however. Mack 2-7 vs. line at Austin since LY (all as chalk). Tech edge-slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

KANSAS at IOWA STATE... KU 1-6 vs. line away since LY, 0-2 for Turner Gill TY. Jayhawks 3-13 their last 16 on board since early LY. ISU hasn’t won SU vs. KU since 2004 but has covered the last two meetings. Cyclones 2-0 as chalk TY and 6-1 in role for Paul Rhoads since LY. Tech edge-ISU, based on team trends.

AKRON at TEMPLE... Zips winless SU 0-8 TY and 2-6 vs. line, now 5-17 last 22 on board since late ‘08. Temple has buried Akron the last 2 years (83-23 total score) and has won and covered last 3 meetings. Al "Touch of" Golden still 13-7 vs. line at home since ‘07 and 28-16 vs. number overall since ‘07. Tech edge-Temple, based on team trends.

BALL STATE at KENT STATE... Ball State continuing its weird road pattern, now 8-2 vs. line away since LY for Stan Parrish but 1-9 at home. Visiting team 17-3 vs. line in Card games since LY. Tech edge-Ball State, based on road-in-Ball trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at WYOMING... Wyo has won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 meetings, with three of those games decided by 3 points including wild Cowboy rally LY. Historically road chalk a difficult role for Aztecs (2-9 since 2000). Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.

TULSA at NOTRE DAME... ND just 2-10-3 its last 15 as chalk, 0-2-3 vs. spread at South Bend TY. Irish no covers last 9 at home. Tulsa on 4-game cover streak. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on team trends.

UTEP at MARSHALL... UTEP 1-2 vs. line away TY and now 3-7 last 10 in role. Herd really skidding, however, with no covers last 5 or 6 of 7 for Doc TY. Herd now 5-9 vs. line last 14 as host. Tech edge-slight to UTEP, based on recent Herd slump.

SMU at TULANE... Road team has covered last 5 meetings. But SMU no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY. Mustangs 1-13 last 14 as chalk. Bob Toledo just 6-14 vs. line at home since ‘07, and Wave 6-16 last 22 as host. Can we trust Wave? Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on series road trend.

BOWLING GREEN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN... CMU getting back to long-ago Chippe-flaw days, now winless SU last 5 and no covers last 4 TY. BGSU now 3-2 as road dog TY and 12-4 in role since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to BGSU, based on recent trends.

STANFORD at WASHINGTON... Tree has won last 2 and 4 of last 5 SU in series. Tree also has covers last 3 trips to Seattle. Tree 4-1 last 5 vs. line away from Farm, and Harbaugh 14-8 his last 22 on board. Huskies no covers last 3 in Seattle TY. Tech edge-Stanford, based on team and recent series trends.

FLORIDA vs. GEOGRIA (at Jacksonville)... Teams headed in opposite directions past few weeks, Florida no wins or covers in last 3 games, Georgia with wins and covers in its last 2. But Dawgs 0-3 SU and vs. line away from Athens TY. Urban Meyer has won big over Richt the last two years but Gators have covered just 2 of last 6 vs. UGa. Tech edge-slight to Georgia, based on recent trends.

EAST CAROLINA at UCF... Ruffin McNeill 3-2 as dog TY and now Pirates 26-11 as short since ‘05. O’Leary now 14-4 vs. line since LY, 9-2 vs. line last 12 as host. UCF also on 5-game cover streak. Tech edge-UCF, based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at UCLA... Cats dominating lately, winning and covering last 3 and 4 of last 5 meetings. Neuheisel now no covers last 3 TY and only 2-5 vs. spread in ‘10. Neuheisel also just 4-9 his last 13 as dog. Tech edge-Arizona, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS STATE... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. KSU no covers its last 3 at home TY but Bill Snyder now 9-4 vs. line last 12 on board. Mike Gundy 21-9 last 30 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to KSU, based on recent trends.

MISSOURI at NEBRASKA... Note that road team has won big the last two years. Bo Pelini no covers last 3 at home TY. Pinkel 10-4 vs. line as visitor since ‘07, but only 4-6 as dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.

COLORADO at OKLAHOMA... Buffs 0-2 vs. line as visitor TY and 1-4 last 5 in role. Teams haven’t met since ‘07 when Dan Hawkins scored 27-24 upset win at Boulder. Sooners just 5-5 vs. line at Norman since ‘09. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on recent Buff road woes.

MIAMI-OHIO at BUFFALO... Bulls just 2-5 vs. line TY and 5-11 last 16 on board since early ‘09. Tech edge-Miami-O, based on recent Bulls woes.

TEXAS TECH at TEXAS A&M... A&M has covered last 2 after Tech had covered 6 of previous 7. Ags 10-4 last 14 vs. line at Kyle Field. Tech edge-slight to A&M, based on home mark.

DUKE at NAVY... Duke won last meeting in ‘08 and covered last two in series in ‘07-08. Mids just 6-13 vs. line as Annapolis chalk since ‘05. Cutcliffe actually 8-4-1 vs. line away since ‘08 with Blue Devils, also 15-7-1 last 23 vs. number away. Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN… Toledo hasn’t lost to EMU since ‘99, has covered last 3 and 7 of last 8 vs. Eagles. EMU now 2-10 vs. spread last 12 on board at Ypsilanti. Tech edge-Toledo, based on series and team trends.

UTAH STATE at NEVADA... Pack no covers last 3 TY, matching Ault’s longest spread losing streaks since returning to Nevada sidelines in 2004. Ault still 21-5 vs. line as Reno chalk since ‘04, and note home team has covered last 5 in this series. Utags just 1-5 vs. line last 5 TY. Tech edge-Nevada, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE... SJSU has won last 5 in series and covered 4, the exception being LY. DeWayne Walker just 1-8 vs. line in Las Cruces since arriving LY. Tech edge-slight to SJSU, based on series trends.

NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE... This was the only game Locksley won LY and still the only game he has won at UNM. Rams, however, have covered 4 of last 5 TY. Tech edge-CSU, based on recent trends.

CAL at OREGON STATE... Riley has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Tedford. OSU 5-2 vs. line last 7 meetings. Note that Cal has now lost 5 in a row SU away from Berkeley. Tedford just 4-8 as dog since ‘05. Riley 34-18 vs. number last 52 on board. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at ARIZONA STATE... Another one of Erickson’s old employers at WSU. Cougs have covered their last 4 and 5 of last 6 TY. WSU has covered last 3 meetings and is actually 8-4 its last 12 vs. line away. Sun Devils 7-1 vs. line last 8 at Tempe. Tech edge-slight to WSU, based on series trends.

HOUSTON at MEMPHIS... Memphis no covers last 3 or 5 of 7 for Porter, and Tigers now 4-15 vs. line last 19 on board, and 2-6 vs. line last 8 at Liberty Bowl. Cougs, however, just 4-12 as road chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on Memphis woes.

UTAH at AIR FORCE... Force has covered last 3 in series and 5 of last 6. Although Falcs currently on 5-game spread losing streak. Utes unbeaten last 10 SU and on board (9-0-1 vs. line). Tech edge-Utah, based on recent trends.

OHIO STATE at MINNESOTA... Interestingly, OSU has failed to cover first 2 as road chalk TY after great success in role previously (19-5 prior 24 in role). Tressel still 22-9 vs. line away since ‘05. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at PENN STATE... Shades has punished Rodriguez the past two years. Rodriguez no covers last 3 TY, note he has had at least a 4-game spread losing streak each of last 2 years as pattern looking familiar. But Shades only 3-9 vs. number last 12 at Happy Valley. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on recent Shades home spread woes.

OREGON at SOUTHERN CAL... Note that home team has won and covered last four meetings. Ducks no covers last 2 on road, however, and now 3-6 vs. line away since LY. Trojans have covered 3 of last 4 TY (1-0 as dog) and SC now 10-3 on rare dog role since 2000. SC still just 7-13 its last 20 on board, however. Tech edge-slight to SC, based on series home trends.

TCU at UNLV... Frogs have brutalized Rebs last 3 years, all big wins and covers. Home team is 7-0 vs. line in Rebel games TY. Tech edge-TCU, based on recent series trends.

IDAHO at HAWAII... Hawaii had won and covered 5 straight vs. Idaho prior to 35-23 loss LY at Kibbie Dome. Leahey now 4-0 vs. line at Aloha Stadium TY and has covered 7 of 8 on board in 2010. Warriors 11-3 vs. line last 14 on board. Tech edge-UH, based on team and series trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at OHIO... Solich on 5-game cover streak, and now 15-9 vs. line at Athens since ‘05 (8-5 as home chalk that span). Cajuns no covers last 3 as non-Belt visitor. Tech edge-Ohio, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at WESTERN KENTUCKY... UNT no covers last 3 TY and 1-5-1 vs. line in 2010. Tech edge-WKU, based on recent trends.

TROY at UL-MONROE... Note that home team has covered last 4 meetings. Troy 2-1 vs. line away TY (surprising 0-3 at home). Underdog team has covered first six Troy games TY! Tech edge-slight to ULM, based on series and recent Troy trends.

FIU at FAU... Howard has made FIU pay for 52-6 win back in 2005, as Owls have won and covered last 4 meetings. Howard, however, no covers last 4 TY and just 1-5 vs. spread as host since LY. Tech edge-FIU, based on recent trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:46 PM

Games to Watch - Week 9
October 26, 2010
By Judd Hall

Who out there had Oklahoma being the third No. 1 falling in as many weeks? Yeah, I didn’t have that called either. Same goes for the Cyclones upsetting a Texas side that appears ready to fall apart at the seams. It’s just another week in college football. Let’s look at this week’s big matchups.

Saturday - Michigan State at Iowa (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. EDT)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

Michigan St. at Iowa
The Spartans appear to have a horseshoe lodged where the sun doesn't shine as they stayed perfect after coming back for a 35-27 win last week on the road against Northwestern. Michigan State was able to fight back against the Wildcats thanks to a defense that put in for eight sacks against Dan Persa. Kirk Cousins has proven that he's able to run Sparty's pass attack with 331 yards and three touchdowns last weekend. All isn't good for MSU as its running game is looking a little suspect. This is a unit that is averaging 193.5 YPG on the ground, but have rushed for 208 yards in its last two games. Iowa is coming into this game with a make-or-break attitude. The Hawkeyes are coming off of a 31-30 loss at home to Wisconsin that saw its defense put down by a 15-play drive that led to the go-ahead touchdown for the visitors. Statistically, Iowa still has a great group of stoppers in allowing just 291.7 YPG. Yet that doesn't mean a thing after giving up 347 yards to the Badgers.

Gambling Notes:

Despite being beaten in such impressive fashion and having an unbeaten team coming in, the Hawkeyes are still listed as 6.5-point home favorites. Iowa does have some history on its side as they have only lost back-to-back games at Kinnick Stadium twice in the last 10 years under Kirk Ferentz. Plus, they are 2-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite after a loss as a home "chalk." The Hawks also have gone 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against Michigan State.

Saturday - Missouri at Nebraska (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

Missouri at Nebraska
The Big XII North will have its unofficial division championship game on Saturday as the Tigers take on the Cornhuskers. Missouri comes into this game after its biggest win in the Gary Pinkel Era with a 36-27 triumph over the Sooners as a three-point home pup. The Tigers were able to take down Oklahoma with a gritty offensive flourish, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter. But this game was won by Mizzou's defense forced the Sooners into three turnovers that were converted into 10 points that proved to be crucial. Blaine Gabbert made sure to make a name for himself by completing 30-of-42 passes for 308 yards and a score. Nebraska comes into this game with a 51-41 bounce back win over the Cowboys as a six-point road "chalk." Bo Pelini put a focus on passing first with Taylor Martinez after his sad effort against the Longhorns the previous week. It worked as the redshirt freshman connected on 66 percent of his throws for 323 yards and five touchdowns. You can't take the running out of a Cornhusker QB as he gashed the Cowpokes for 112 yards on the ground. While the offense looks like it is ready to go, the defense is leaving a lot to be desired. Oklahoma State was able to gain 495 yards on the vaunted Blackshirts. This is a unit that is 18th nationally by allowing 305.9 YPG.

Gambling Notes

This series has been fairly even over the last seven seasons with Missouri going 4-3 SU and ATS. The 'Huskers had Gabbert's number last season in their 27-12 win over Mizzou in Columbia. In that game, Gabbert tossed two picks and helped Nebraska score 14 points in the fourth quarter for a rain-soaked victory. While this is a perfect spot for a let down for the Tigers, Nebraska might be better suited to fade. That's because the Cornhuskers have gone 4-2 SU, but just 1-5 ATS when posted as home favorites after a win as road faves since 2006.

Saturday - Oregon at Southern California (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

Oregon vs.USC
Oregon might be taking this not being No. 1 in the BCS rankings to heart. Last week, they lit up the Bruins 60-13 on a Thursday night affair on national TV from Eugene. That isn't anything new as the Ducks are 3rd in rushing offense (308.4 YPG), 31st in passing offense (260.7 YPG) and are the best scoring attack in the nation (55.1 points per game). If there was anything to complain on the Quackers, it's their third down conversions against the B's. Of course, they only converted just two of their eight third down chances. The Trojans avoided a three-game losing streak with a 48-14 total beatdown of California as two-point home favorites back on Oct. 16. Matt Barkley killed the Golden Bears with five touchdown tosses in the first half. Barkley has shown to be the best player on the field for me for the Men of Troy, having thrown eight TDs and no picks in his last three games. And to be honest, he's the only Trojan that at least is playing like there is something on the line.

Gambling Notes

This series had been the domain of Trojan domination as they're 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Oregon. However, the Ducks are coming off of a 47-20 win over USC last season as three-point home favorites. Chip Kelly's team rolled up 613 total yards against the Men of Troy in last year's battle. That might happen again this year with the Trojans ranking 87th in total defense (402.6 YPG). But USC has won and covered the number in its last two games as a home pup. Also, Oregon is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS as a road favorite against Pac-10 foes since Nov. 2009.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

Baylor at Texas
Who would have guessed that Baylor would be in first place in the Big XII South at this moment? The Bears are playing great on offense and doing just enough to keep teams down on defense. They're getting the Longhorns in Austin. That used to mean something before they got embarrassed by UCLA and Iowa State. Baylor hasn't beaten the 'Horns since 1997, but this is its best chance to pull the upset.

Florida vs. Georgia
"The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" is normally a big time deal in the hunt for the SEC and national championship hunt. That isn't the case this year as the loser will need a miracle to win the SEC East crown. The Gators are mired in Urban Meyer's first three-game slide ever. Meanwhile, Georgia has reeled off three straight wins after a four-game losing skid. But this game is huge for Mark Richt as he is just 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS against UF in his time leading the Bulldogs.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 07:01 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/28/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/26/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/23/10 44-54-0 44.90% -7700 Detail
10/22/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/21/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/16/10 31-33-2 48.44% -2650 Detail
10/15/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/14/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/13/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/09/10 46-45-1 50.55% -1750 Detail
10/08/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/07/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/06/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/02/10 31-41-1 43.06% -7050 Detail
10/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
Totals 166-187-4 47.03% -19850

Friday, October 29Game Score Status Pick Amount

West Virginia - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut +5.5 500
Connecticut - Over 44.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 07:04 PM

WVU favored by 6.5 at Connecticut

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (5-2)
at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (3-4)

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: West Virginia -6.5, Total: 45.5

Big East foes try to rebound from embarrassing losses when they meet in East Hartford, CT on Friday night. West Virginia suffered a home defeat to 13.5-point underdog Syracuse while UConn was shut out 26-0 by a Louisville team that hadn’t beaten a BCS school (0-3) prior to playing the Huskies. Connecticut only gained 195 yards in the Louisville game, its first without suspended starting QB Cody Endres whose season is over after violating team rules. With No. 2 QB Michael Box out with a concussion, the Huskies turn to third-string senior Zach Frazer.

Frazer was the starter for most of last season, but he wasn’t very good, completing just 53 percent of his passes with 10 TD and 9 INT. This year, he is 53-for-99 for 605 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Connecticut is 3-0 at Rentschler Field, but those three opponents have been weak (Texas Southern, Buffalo and Vanderbilt). RB Jordan Todman is the only chance UConn has of pulling off the upset. Todman has rushed for 841 yards (120 per game) on 6.0 yards per carry this year, adding eight touchdowns. He gained 94 yards on the ground in the Huskies’ 28-24 loss at West Virginia last year.

WVU also has a great running back in Noel Devine who rushed for 178 yards in the win over UConn last season. Devine ran for 122 yards in last week’s loss to Syracuse, which ended a three-game 100-yard drought.

The favorite is 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) in past six series meetings and the FoxSheets show two more reasons why West Virginia will win and cover on Friday night.

W VIRGINIA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992. The average score was W VIRGINIA 38.1, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. (42-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +22.2 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 07:06 PM

Full rosters expected for Georgia-Florida game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA GATORS (4-3)
vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (4-4)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT in Jacksonville, FL
Line: Georgia -2, Total: 47.5

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville features teams with a combined seven losses. Florida has dropped three straight regular-season games for the first time since 1988, while Georgia has completely turned its season around with its third consecutive win last week at Kentucky. UGA has won by an average of 28 points (43 to 15) in these three games, all against SEC schools. The news is good for three of the more talented offensive players in this game. Florida’s RBs Chris Rainey (suspension) and Jeffrey Demps (foot), and Georgia RB Washaun Ealey (knee) are all expected to play on Saturday.

******* take:
Florida’s only significant absence will be kicker Caleb Sturgis who is out due to back problems. The return of Rainey, who was suspended for sending threatening text messages to a woman, will be a huge boost to a struggling Gators offense. Rainey only has a few touches this year (four carries, six catches, three punt returns), but he showed how dangerous he was last year with seven touchdowns. Demps hasn’t been 100 percent for a while and thus hasn’t scored in his past four games. Overall, Florida’s offense ranks 89th in the nation in total yardage (329 YPG) and 82nd in passing yards (187 YPG).

Georgia’s defense has been solid this year (307 YPG, ranked 19th in FBS total defense), but the Dawgs allowed Kentucky’s Mike Hartline to throw for 353 yards and four touchdowns against them last week. Ealey has been a big part of the Bulldogs resurgence this year. He scored five times in last week’s win and has 280 rushing yards in the past two games. WR A.J. Green has also been great since returning to the field after his suspension. Green has 22 catches for 365 yards and four touchdowns in four games.

Florida has won its past 17 November games (10-5 ATS) and has taken the past two series meetings with ease, crushing Georgia 49-10 and 41-17. This FoxSheets coaching trend likes well-rested Florida to win again on Saturday:

Urban Meyer is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Meyer 36.6, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 3*).

These two FoxSheets trends think the game will go Under the total:

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (FLORIDA) - after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game. (71-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +38 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (FLORIDA, GEORGIA) - average rushing team (140-190 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/G) after 7+ games. (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**Kaptain** · 10-29-2010, 08:15 PM

gl tonight SD Bum.....give it to em

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:22 PM

Oregon Ducks set for fight at USC
By: Stephen Nover | Friday, October 29, 2010

If the Oregon Ducks are going to stay No. 1, they are going to have to earn it Saturday.

The Ducks are 7-0 and have the No. 1 offense in the country averaging 569.1 yards per game and 55.4 points. But they’ve accomplished this against ‘lined’ opponents that are a combined 10-22.

But now Oregon travels to Southern Cal for a meeting against the 24th-ranked Trojans. The Ducks are 6 ½-point favorites. The ‘over/under’ of 70 is the largest total on the college football betting menu.

It’s the first time since 2001 the Trojans are a home underdog. USC quarterback Matt Barkley is having a huge year completing 65.4 percent of his throws for 1,869 yards and 20 touchdowns with just four interceptions.

However, the Trojans are going through a down year on defense ranking 87th in total defense. Their pass defense has been especially bad ranking 112th giving up 274 yards through the air. Just two years ago under Pete Carroll, the Trojans led the nation in defense.

The Ducks have a balanced attack featuring Darron Thomas and LaMichael James. Thomas rates 18th in passing efficiency. James leads the nation in rushing averaging 161 yards per contest. He’s becoming a viable Heisman Trophy contender.

Thomas and James were at their finest in the Ducks’ last game, a 60-13 home victory against UCLA played on Oct. 21. Thomas threw for a career-high 308 yards and three touchdowns in the nationally televised matchup, while James ran for 123 yards and two scores. The Ducks easily covered as 26 ½-point favorites with the combined 73 points going ‘over’ the 60 ½-point total.

USC was idle this past week. The Trojans were voted back into the Top 25 on the strength of a 48-14 win against California in their last game. Barkley passed for 352 yards and a school-record five touchdowns. The Trojans were two-point home favorites with the combined 62 points going ‘over’ the 54-point total.

That victory halted a two-game losing streak for the Trojans, their longest in an amazing nine years. The two defeats were by a combined three points to Washington (32-31) and to Stanford (37-35). The Trojans lost both games at the gun on final-play field goals.

Oregon rolled past USC last year, 47-20, as three-point home favorites. The combined 67 points sailed ‘over’ the 49-point total. The Ducks gained 613 yards in dealing the Trojans’ their worst loss since 1997. That victory helped propel Oregon to the Pac-10 championship ending USC’s seven-year reign.

The Trojans are ineligible for a bowl game this season, but certainly shouldn’t lack for motivation. They have covered in five of their last seven meetings with Oregon.

Along with a great offense, Oregon rates 12th in scoring defense permitting 15.9 points per contest. The Ducks also are No. 1 in turnover ratio.

The key is how will Oregon play away from Autzen Stadium? The Ducks failed to cover in their last two road games defeating Arizona State, 42-31, as 11 ½-point favorites and beating Washington State, 42-23, as 36 ½-point favorites.

Critics of Oregon point out that the Ducks’ statistics are skewed by a 72-0 opening victory against winless New Mexico and a 69-0 shutout of Portland State, a non-‘board’ school.

The Ducks have covered in 19 of their last 26 October games, but are 1-4 ATS in their last five road matchups.

USC is 12-6 ATS the past 18 times it has faced a Top-10 opponent. The Trojans, though, are just 2-9 ATS following a pointspread cover. They also are just 3-3 during their past six home contests.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 11 of Oregon’s last 14 games. USC has gone ‘over’ in its last four games. The ‘under,’ though has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two schools.

Announcement

College Football Week # 9 Best Bets, News and Notes !

College Football Week # 9 Best Bets, News and Notes !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment