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**StarDust Bum** · 10-26-2010, 01:57 AM

Brett Favre ankle fractures has Vikings hurting

This has to be it, right? Who plays on an ankle with two fractures in it? Those who made their NFL picks for Minnesota to win the Super Bowl can now chalk things up to a loss. There is no way this gimpy, aging quarterback can be anywhere near effective on a bum foot. It takes an extremely high level of QB play for a team to reach the pinnacle of the sport. How can you honestly lay any money down on the Vikings being there at the end?

The NFL odds are that Favre will be in the lineup versus the Patriots, ready to take punishment for a full 60 minutes, until the trainers come and drag him off the field. Based on how New England's offense looked like last and based on the prospects of a Favre-led passing game, don't expect 40 points in this matchup on the weekend.

So that leaves the Vikings with a choice. Are they ready to go with a clearly ineffective and hobbled Favre against a top five NFL team, or do they sit him down and take their chances with backup Tavaris Jackson? Sadly, I don't think they have much of a choice. Both options aren't appealing. Jackson is a quarterback with limited vision, incapable of making the big play when his team direly needs it. Favre is unable to escape the pass rush and won't be able to plant properly to throw downfield.

So whether it's effective or not, expect at least 28 touches a week for Adrian Peterson from here on in, or at least until the team is eliminated from postseason play. Peterson is getting better as a pass receiver and will have to step up his game if Minnesota wants to have any kind of shot this week and beyond.

For his part, head coach Brad Childress has to get a little more creative with the play-calling. He can't let Favre stand behind an underachieving offensive line and take another beating. Even Jackson needs good blocking up front to make some decisions.

You have to wonder just how many quarterbacks would still be considered uncertain at this point. Most QBs would be listed as out this weekend. But not Favre. Call it bravado. Call it courage. Or, call it pure, 100 percent selfishness, the kind that looks good on paper, but affects teammates and the NFL betting public.

It's enough with these murky projections and even murkier results. Favre clearly doesn't have the physical tools right now to excel and beat the NFL odds in 2010. So why prolong the agony? At least if Minnesota turns to Jackson, we the football odds betting public will know where the Vikings stand. At 2-4 on the season, don't just buy low on the Vikings, hammer the other side until your book closes up the bet.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:21 PM

Hot Seat Coaches
October 22, 2010
By Bruce Marshall

We're getting to the point of the season where several NFL c oaches are going to be looking over their shoulders as they worry about holding onto their jobs. Although the trend in recent years has been for pro football teams to refrain from hitting the eject button during the regular season, that is hardly an absolute, as Buffalo's Dick Jauron found out last season. Following are the NFL coaches who seem to be in the most trouble as Halloween and midseason approach...

John Fox, Carolina...Fox, his staff, and GM Marty Hurney were all on notice entering the season, as none had their contracts extended beyond 2010. And not much has happened to make anyone think Fox is safer than he was in the offseason, with the Panthers struggling to score points and sitting at a humbling 0-5. Moreover, Fox is slated to make another change at QB, going back to original starter Matt Moore for this week's game vs. the 49ers after benching him following the first two games and opting for Notre Dame rookie Jimmy Clausen. Fox, however has come under some fire for throwing Clausen to the wolves at the controls of a punchless offense that has yet to uncover a suitable complement to WR Steve Smith, who himself has been out with an ankle injury since the October 3 loss at New Orleans. Smith is listed as probable to return for this week's game vs. the 49ers, but it is looking less probable that Fox is going to be around next season, and might not make it to Thanksgiving if the Panthers continue to chase the 2008 Lions and their 0-16 mark. Meanwhile, Hurney is in deep water too, and will be held responsible for not providing Carolina with sufficient options at QB. Whatever happens before the regular season concludes, expect a major housecleaning in the offseason.

Chan Gailey, Buffalo...Could Gailey be a one-and-done coach in Buffalo? Perhaps not, but owner Ralph Wilson is on record as being very disappointed with the team's continuing lack of progress, and Gailey is unlikely to steward any turnaround this season, having already jettisoned QB Trent Edwards and turning to Harvard's Ryan Fitzpatrick to revive the season. So far, it hasn't worked, and Bills fans are furious at the enduring incompetence of the franchise, which has spe nt most of the past decade grooming young QBs such as Edwards and J.P. Losman, only to eventually jettison each. Although it's unlikely Gailey gets run after just one season, he might not survive a 1-15 or 0-16 campaign, which looks possible. Some AFC East observers are already comparing this to the one-year run of Rod Rust as Patriots HC in 1990, a year New England ended 1-15 and caused the quick ouster of Rust, who was replaced by ex-Syracuse HC Dick MacPherson.

Lovie Smith, Chicago...The 4-2 Bears have enjoyed a mostly-encouraging start to the season, but Lovie and his staff have little margin for error. With the team having missed the postseason three years running, it's playoffs or bust for Lovie and perhaps GM Jerry Angelo as well. And Lovie Smith has to be concerned that his offense, masterminded by new o.c. Mike Martz, is still having trouble gaining traction, with QB Jay Cutler blowing hot and cold and even KO'd for one start after enduring a frightening beating in the October 4 loss at the Giants when he was sacked nine times. Last week's home loss to Seattle might be a warning sign, and the offense has to shift gears or else to deal with a challenging slate after next week's bye. Miami, Philadelphia, New England, the Jets, and two more vs. Minnesota still on tap the second half of the campaign.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati...The well-respected Lewis could nonetheless end up being the fall guy in Cincy if the Bengals continue to display the bipolar tendencies that have marked his seven previous season in charge at Paul Brown Stadium. The potential disruptions on the ros ter caused by the self-serving agendas of Chad Ochocinco and offseason addition Terrell Owens threaten to implode the clubhouse at any time, while the presence of a noted troublemaker Pacman Jones is another potential banana peel for Lewis. An injury to QB Carson Palmer could really send the Cincy season spinning out of control, and recent losses at Cleveland (23-20) and at home vs. Tampa Bay (24-21) were obvious red flags. Things could really unravel in Cincy as soon as it appears the team is out of playoff contention.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland...Mangini looked even money to be dismissed for much of last season, his first in Cleveland, before the Browns rallied down the stretch. Given a reprieve, and with new team prez Mike Holmgren deciding that Mangini deserved another chance, Mangini hung around into 2010, but the jury remains out with the Browns already out of the playoff discussion at 1-5. What might spare Mangini is a rash of injuries at QB that have already sidelined starter Jake Delhomme and backup Seneca Wallace with ankle problems, thrusting Texas rookie QB Colt McCoy into the starting lineup a lot earlier than Mangini or Holmgren envisioned. But it has been a very bumpy ride in the early going, with last year's rushing hero Jerome Harrison also recently dealt to Philadelphia after complaining about lack of playing time. The defense has kept the team in most of its games, but if the Browns come in at 4-12 or 3-13, Holmgren could decide to go in another direction at season's end despite the QB injuries.

Wade Phillips, Dallas...That Phillips has managed to hang in there into his fourth season has surprised a lot of observers in Big D who suspect some of the strange dynamics unique only to owner Jerry Jones might be conspiring to keep Phillips around. Jones likes the fact that the low-key Phillips does not compete with him for visibility in Big D, granting Jerry the publicity stage he craves. And Jones apparently values Phillips' defensive acumen, saying on multiple occasions that Bum's son is a tremendous defensive coordinator while stopping short of saying the same about him as a head coach. There seemed to be a few occasions in the past when Jones would have been justified moving out Phillips (such as after the conclusion of the last two seasons), but since Jerry has unofficially deemed o.c. Jason Garrett as the heir apparent, it was just too awkward to promote Garrett after Cowboy offensive meltdowns, and Jones' ego was not ready to concede that he might have been wrong about Garrett's capabilities. Regardless, one wonders how much more rope Jones is going to give Phillips with Dall as off to an immensely disappointing 1-4 start. Some believe a loss in Monday's game could prompt a change, with Jones perhaps deciding to give Garrett a shot regardless. Or could Jerry pull a Ted Turner, who managed his Atlanta Braves for one game in 1977, and decide he could do a better job himself? Stay tuned.

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville...There was speculation in Jacksonville that Del Rio faced a playoffs-or-else scenario from owner Wayne Weaver after a pair of disappointing seasons in 2008 and 2009. An encouraging October 3 win over Indianapolis and subsequent success at Buffalo suggested that Del Rio might be able to salvage himself, but last Monday's 30-3 home loss to Tennessee was ominous, especially because QBs David Garrard and recently-acquired Trent Edwards were hurt in the process. Del Rio has brought in journeymen Patrick Ramsey and Todd Bauman for this week's game at Kansas City and has said that any of the four might end up starting at Arrowhead. If this is a prelude to an unraveling of the Jacksonville season, it could also be a prelude to the unraveling of Del Rio's tenure after being in the saddle for the Jags since 2003.

Tom Cable, Oakland...One can never tell what is going through Al Davis' mind. And Cable has seemed to be on the chopping block after each of the last two seasons. But he seems to have done just enough to not get fired in the past. The Raiders have hinted that they might be upgraded, although ongoing QB issues (we're not sure if Bruce Gradkowski, Jason Campbell, or maybe even Mr. Carrie Prejean, Kyle Boller, gets the start this week in Denver) could send the Raiders to another season like last year's 5-11. Could Cable survive another year being so far under .500? Remember, Davis has jettisoned coach es for less. Moreover, do any name coaches really want to work for Davis these days?

Norv Turner, San Diego...The thought persists in the AFC that the Chargers have underachieved for Norv despite winning the West and a few playoff games the past three seasons since Marty Schottenheimer was sent packing. The division has been easy to top in those years, but it might be a bit tougher in 2010, with the Chiefs and Raiders having already beaten the Chargers. And this is hardly the same San Diego team, with key components such as L.T. and Shawne Merriman now out of the equation, and the distractions caused by WR Vincent Jackson's holdout (he's now supposed to return in late November) all combining to conspire for another slow Charger break from the gate. Only this year, observers aren't so sure the Chargers will rally for the introverted Norv, not exactly a rah-rah type, instead relaying on internal motivators within the clubhouse to emerge, which Norv has relied upon to rally the troops the past three years. Despite his stats and mouthiness, Philip Rivers' cockiness is not necessary the stuff of real leadership, and sort of vacuum seems to exist these days in San Diego with L.T., and other now departed. Some wonder if Norv could survive a sub-.500 finish.

Mike Singletary, San Francisco...Despite the 49ers' 1-5 start, it doesn't seem as if Singletary is in any immediate danger now that the 49ers are in the win column and looking forward to a very favorable slate over the next month that could put them right back into the thick of the NFC West race in a few weeks. But if the 49ers can't pull themselves up to the .500 level and win what seemed to be a very soft division that looked to be theirs for the taking, "Samurai Mike" might be in trouble at the end of the season. Especially since the early-season confusion on his staff that resulted in o.c. Jimmy Raye's dismissal and Singletary's obvious shortcomings in offensive strategy that have so far impeded the progress of the team.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:23 PM

Las Vegas NFL Notes
October 26, 2010
By Micah Roberts

What a difference a year makes. During Week 7 of the NFL last season, it was the worst day in Las Vegas sportsbook history with estimated losses of up to $8 million across the state. The 2010 version of Week 7 came with much better results for the house as sports books chalked up another win taking their season mark against the players to 7-0, or some small cases, 6-1.

It’s a shame there isn’t a weekly line on siding with the player or the house like in baccarat, because the house winning is about the only sure thing going in NFL trends right now.

Not far behind the house edge of winning consistently has been the barking dogs. The underdogs went 8-5 for the week confusing the players even more than they already were coming in. Of the eight dogs, five of them won outright including this seasons biggest upset thus far with the 13-point favorite Saints losing at home to the Browns, 30-17.

The Denver Broncos were 8 ½-point home favorites over the Raiders and closed -7 as the sharpest group in town flooded the market with Raiders money. The Sharps are always to be respected, but how about that call. The Raiders were up 21-0 within the first few minutes of the game and buried the Broncos, 59-14. For most sportsbooks, they still won on the game despite losing to the Sharp money because of all the small money siding with Denver.

The biggest public games of the day were the Chiefs, Ravens, Broncos, Saints and Falcons who combined to go 2-3. Those losses are the links that killed most of the major parlay liability throughout the day. The Ravens, favored by 13, were the most one-sided bet team of the day and their 37-34 overtime win against the Bills was a killer for not only those playing parlays, but also for teaser bettors.

So now what do you do with a team like the Bills? They’re the worst team in football, but they’ve covered and scored 30 or more points against two of the best teams in football, the Patriots and Ravens. The Ravens get applauded quite frequently for how good their defense is, but allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 374 yards with four touchdown passes puts their defense in an entirely new category. The Bills are still winless at 0-6, but are now 2-4 against the spread.

The Bills remain the only team without a win after the Panthers beat the 49ers, 23-20. The 49ers allowed 10 points in the final 2:36 of that game for another blundering loss, yet head coach Mike Singletary still says with a straight face that the 49ers will make the playoffs.

Our good relationship with England could be in trouble with the garbage the NFL is sending over there this week. The schedule makers probably thought this would be a good match, but the 49ers and Broncos have a combined record of 3-11. That would be like England sending over Wolverhampton and Blackburn to the USA for a goodwill soccer match.

The rest of the Week 8 schedule looks to be just as tough as the first seven weeks with one double-digit favorite and only one other game favored by more than a touchdown. One of the underdogs I’ll paying close attention to this week is the Texans traveling to Indianapolis where Peyton Manning will be without his favorite outlet in Dallas Clark. Austin Collie and Joseph Addai all figure to miss as well leaving Manning without some of his best weapons. He’s very good, but he can’t do it alone. Getting 5 ½-points in this spot looks pretty good.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-27-2010, 07:24 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 8
October 26, 2010
By Bruce Marshall

DENVER vs. SAN FRANCISCO (at Wembley Stadium, London)... Broncos "over" 11-1 last 12 since late LY, and "over" last 7 away from Invesco Field at Mile High. 49ers only 1-3 as chalk in ‘10. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at DALLAS... Wade Phillips only 1-5 vs. line TY and 1-6 last 7 since late LY after loss to Giants Mon. night. Cowboys "over" first 3 at Arlington TY and Jags "over" their first three on road TY. Skins 1-1 "over" and road TY but 7-4 "over" last 11 away. Tech edge-"Over," based on recent "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at DETROIT... If Skins chalk note 0-1 mark in role TY and 6-14 since ‘07. As for the Shan, he has failed to cover his last 9 as chalk dating to ‘08 with Denver. Lions 2-0 vs. line at Ford Field TY and "over" last 4 at home. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at NY JETS... Pack got the W vs. Vikings but ahd dropped previosu 4 vs. line in 2010. Meanwhile Jets have covers in their last 5. Jets also "over" their last 5 in 2010. Tech edge-Jets, based on recent trends.

CAROLINA at ST. LOUIS... Rams have covered 5 of last 6 including last 3 at home. Both trending "under" TY (Panthers 4-2, Rams 5-2), and John Fox "under" 15-8 last 23. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

MIAMI at CINCINNATI... Miami back on the road where it has excelled, winning and covering first 3 away TY. Sparano now 14-4 vs. line last 18 on road. Marvin Lewis only 4-7 vs. ,line last 11 as host, and if Bengals favored note failures in last in role as host and 5-18 overall as chalk since ‘07. Sparano also "under" first 3 away TY and "under" 9-3 last 12 away. Tech edge-Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY... Teams do not meet every year but note Bills have covered last 3 (including LY) and 5 of last 6 since 2000. Chan just 1-4 vs. line TY. Chiefs covered as cahlk vs. Jags but just 1-6 in favorite role since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on recent Bills woes.

TENNESSEE at SAN DIEGO... Titans 3-0 vs. line away TY. But Fisher 0-5 SU and vs. line against Bolts since ‘04. Norv "over" 8-4 last 11 at home. Tech edge-slight to Titans and "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at ARIZONA... Bucs have played well on road, 2-0 vs. line away TY and 7-2 last 9 vs. spread as visitor for Raheem Morris. Bucs "under" 14-8 for Raheem Morris since LY. Whisenhunt 4-8 vs. line as chalk since LY. Tech edge-Bucs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at OAKLAND... Seattle just 2-10 vs. line last 12 away but did win and cover last as visitor at Chicago. Seahawks "over" 9-4 last 13 away. Raiders no covers last 12 as chalk! Tech edge-Seahawks, especially if dog, and "over."

MINNESOTA at NEW ENGLAND... Patriots now "over" 6-2 last 7 since late LY. Belichick only 14-15-1 vs. line last 30 as chalk. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

PITTSBURGH at NEW ORLEANS... Saints just 5-14-1 vs. number last 20 on board. 1-6-1 last 8 at Superdome. If Tomlin a dog note his 8-2 mark in role since taking over Steelers in ‘07. Tech edge-Steelers, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (Monday, November 1)... Texans broke 6-game losing streak to Indy in opener, a 34-24 Houston win. "Overs" 10-1 last 11 in series. Kubiak 10-4 vs. line last 14 on road, 7-1 last 8 as road dog. Tech edge-"Over" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-28-2010, 12:36 AM

Garrard to start Sunday at Dallas

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-4)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (1-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 42.5

After missing last week’s game due to a concussion, Jaguars QB David Garrard has been cleared to return to action and will likely start in Sunday’s game at Dallas. The Cowboys will not have their starting signal caller, Tony Romo, for at least six weeks after he broke his collarbone in Monday night’s loss to the Giants. Veteran Jon Kitna will start at quarterback for Dallas.

******* take:
Garrard gives the Jags their best chance to win, but he is not a game-changing quarterback. His stats are very pedestrian this year (9 TD, 7 INT, zero 200-yard passing games) and Jacksonville ranks 28th in passing offense. RB Maurice Jones-Drew has also been very ordinary with 3.8 yards per carry and just one rushing touchdown in seven games. Jones-Drew has rushed for at least nine scores in each of his first four seasons, including last year’s career-high 15 rushing TD. The biggest problem in Jacksonville is the defense that has allowed 26-plus points in each of the past six games. The Jaguars rank 30th in total defense (382 YPG), 27th in passing defense (253 YPG) and 25th in rushing defense (129 YPG). Jacksonville also sports a league-worst minus-10 turnover margin.

Kitna did pretty well filling in for Romo last week. He only completed 16-of-33 passes, but still gained 187 yards with two touchdowns. For his 129-game career, Kitna has a 76.7 passer rating, 154 TD and 151 INT. For Dallas to actually win a game, it needs to get its running game in gear. The Cowboys have one game of 105-plus rushing yards this year and rank 30th in the league with just 86 rush YPG. They could also use some turnover help considering only five NFL teams have fewer than Dallas’ nine takeaways.

Jacksonville has lost two of three road games in the series, but it has never played at the new Cowboys Stadium where Dallas is 0-3 this year. These two FoxSheets trends show why Jacksonville is the play on Sunday.

Play On - Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games. (32-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Home favorites (DALLAS) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (37-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also side with the Under:

JACKSONVILLE is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.The average score was JACKSONVILLE 17.1, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-28-2010, 12:37 AM

Favre hopes to play at New England Sunday

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-4)
at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: New England -5, Total: 44

When asked whether or not he’ll play at New England on Sunday, Brett Favre replied, “I’m willing to give it a try. I want to play and I want to help this team win. I’ve done it in the past, and I can do it again.” It looks like Favre will extend his NFL-record consecutive games streak to 292 despite a major ankle injury. Favre reportedly has a stress fracture in his ankle and an “avulsion” fracture in the heel bone, but does not require surgery. He will be limited in practice this week.

******* take:
Considering he hasn’t missed a start since 1992, expect Favre to start on Sunday. That’s not necessarily a good thing for the Vikings based on his performance this year. Favre has thrown 10 interceptions, which is one pick fewer than league leader Eli Manning. He has been sacked 14 times and his 68.0 passer rating is the fourth-lowest among qualified quarterbacks. He has just seven touchdowns and zero 40-yard gains this season. With all that being said, the Patriots have the third-worst pass defense in the NFL (282 YPG), and former Patriot Randy Moss will be extra-motivated to beat his old team. Moss has 12 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns in his three games with Minnesota this year.

Tom Brady and the Patriots lead the NFL in points (29.5 PPG), but rank just 19th in total yardage (325 YPG). New England has won four straight games largely because of great special teams play and protecting the football. The Patriots have the third-fewest turnovers in the league (six) with a +7 turnover margin during the win streak. They were out-gained by San Diego 363 to 179 last week, but still won the game.

These teams have met just twice in the past 10 years, both Patriots wins. New England won 24-17 at home in 2002 and crushed Minnesota 31-7 at the Metrodome in 2006. This FoxSheets coaching trend gives the edge to New England on Sunday.

Bill Belichick is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.8, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also show a couple of trends that like the Under:

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. (41-15 since 1983.) (73.2%, +24.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Bill Belichick is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.8, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 07:14 PM

Troy Smith to start for SF against Denver

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DENVER BRONCOS (2-5)
vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-6)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT in London, England
Line: San Francisco -1.5, Total: 41.5

The good folks in London are probably not too pumped to watch this game between teams with a combined 3-11 record. The Broncos have lost three straight, culminated by a 59-14 beatdown at home against Oakland last week. The 49ers losses have been much closer lately as San Francisco’s last three defeats have been by a total of eight points. As if these teams weren’t bad enough healthy, the 49ers will be missing starting QB Alex Smith for the next 2-to-3 weeks with a shoulder injury. Former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith will start in his place across the pond, but he may be without star TE Vernon Davis who is questionable with an ankle injury.

******* take:
Troy Smith is in a no-lose situation with his 1-6 club. He hasn’t had much NFL experience, so not a lot will be expected from Smith who won the 2006 Heisman at Ohio State. In his four-year NFL career, he is 48-for-89 for 558 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 109 yards and two scores. Davis leads the team in receiving yards (422) and receiving touchdowns (four). Running the football will be the name of the game for the 49ers on Sunday with a heavy dose of Frank Gore (573 rushing yards, 4.2 YPC). Considering Gore has taken 85 percent of the San Francisco hand-offs this year, head coach Mike Singletary said this week that backups Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon would see more action to keep Gore fresher for the fourth quarter.

Denver has many problems, but none are greater than its league-worst 68 rushing YPG average. Knowshon Moreno tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday but is expected to play Sunday. Moreno has already missed three games this year because of the injury and holds a sub-par 3.3 YPC average this year. The Broncos also have a porous run defense allowing 156 rushing yards per game this year.

These teams have met just twice in the past 10 years, with the road team winning both games. Denver won 24-14 at San Francisco in 2002 and the 49ers took the 2006 meeting in Denver 26-23. This FoxSheets trend gives the edge to San Francisco on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 18.9, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets statistic advises to take the Over:

DENVER is 33-10 OVER (76.7%, +22.0 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in its previous game since 1992. The average score was DENVER 24.8, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 07:17 PM

DeAngelo Williams unlikely to play at St. Louis

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CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-5)
at ST. LOUIS RAMS (3-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: St. Louis -3, Total: 37

Two teams with injured star running backs meet in St. Louis on Sunday. Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams (foot) and Rams RB Steven Jackson (finger) have both fallen victim to the injury bug. Williams’ ailment is being reported as a sprained foot, which could keep him out a few weeks. The news on Jackson is much better, as the man who is now the Rams’ all-time rushing leader says he will play despite his surgically repaired finger.

******* take:
Williams is a great running back, but the Panthers don’t lose much with his backup Jonathan Stewart. Because Carolina has been trailing so often, Williams has yet to carry the ball 20 times in a game and has only one contest with more than 65 rushing yards this year (86 at New Orleans). Stewart had a tremendous 2009 season as the complement to Williams, rushing for 1,133 yards (5.1 YPC) with 10 TD. But like the rest of Carolina, Stewart has struggled this year to a 3.0 YPC average and just one touchdown in his 50 carries. The Panthers made a wise decision to re-insert QB Matt Moore as the starter last week, as he threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns in the win over San Francisco.

Jackson has been the best player in St. Louis for a while, and he is heating up lately, with 333 rushing yards in his past three games. The Rams have been winning games mostly because their defense is much improved from last season. St. Louis is allowing only 18.7 PPG, good for eighth in the NFL, compared to its 27.3 PPG average in 2009.

Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its past eight road games and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend is another reason to pick Carolina.

Play Against - Home teams (ST LOUIS) - poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA) against a horrible passing team (<=5.3 PYA). (62-22 since 1983.) (73.8%, +37.8 units. Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets show another four-star rated trend favoring the Over:

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (ST LOUIS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (295 to 335 YPG). (78-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.6%, +47.2 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:26 PM

Battered Packers trek to face the NY Jets
By: Stephen Nover | Thursday, October 28, 2010

There has been a lot of big talk coming from Rex Ryan and his New York Jets about how they are the best team in football.

But so far the 5-1 Jets have backed up their talk. They are six-point home favorites on Sunday against Green Bay with NFL oddsmakers setting the total at 42.

The Packers haven’t been this big of an underdog since Week 12 of 2007 when they lost 37-27 as seven-point road ‘dogs to Dallas.

Since that defeat to the Cowboys, the Packers have lost seven of eight times as a road ‘dog with their lone victory occurring in Week 16 last season against Arizona when the Cardinals didn’t even try resting their regulars for the playoffs.

The Jets are healthy, off a bye and have their swagger entering this matchup. They are 7-1 ATS after being off the week before.

Green Bay is battered, off an emotional Sunday night home victory against NFC North rival Minnesota and has bad special teams. The Packers held off the Vikings, 28-24, as three-point favorites. The combined 52 points went ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total.

Aaron Rodgers and sacks leader Clay Matthews make the Packers competitive against any opponent.

Considering their multiple injuries and situational spot, though, it’s going to be tough for Green Bay to win this game. The Jets rank fourth in scoring defense giving up 16.8 points per game, rate 12th in yardage allowing 319 per contest and are tied for ninth in takeaways with 14.

The Packers are missing their top running back, Ryan Grant, and game-changing tight end Jermichael Finley. The Packers also have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and at linebacker.

Linebacker Brady Poppinga and defensive lineman Mike Neal are the latest to be lost for the season for Green Bay. Worse, the Packers could be minus mainstay defensive linemen Cullen Jenkins (calf) and Ryan Pickett (ankle). Both are ‘questionable.’

If those two can’t play, LaDainian Tomlinson could be in line for another big performance. The 31-year-old Tomlinson looked washed up last season when he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry while dealing with a lingering ankle injury. But he’s bounced back to rush for 597 yards – averaging 5.3 yards per run – and has scored five touchdowns.

Tomlinson rushed for two fourth-quarter touchdowns two weeks ago in the Jets’ 24-20 road win against Denver. New York was a 3 ½-point road favorite. The combined 44 points went ‘over’ the 43-point total. Tomlinson is running behind one of the top offensive lines in football. Nick Mangold may be the No. 1 center in the league and D’Brickashaw Ferguson is one of the best left tackles.

Second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez didn’t throw an interception during the first five games, but was picked off twice against Denver. Sanchez is connecting on only 55 percent of his throws, but has a nine-to-two touchdown to interception ratio.

Rodgers has kept the 4-3 Packers competitive ranking fifth in passing yards and fifth in touchdown throws with 12. He also has run for three touchdowns. He’ll be going against perhaps the top cornerback in the NFL, Darrelle Revis. Limited by a hamstring injury the past two games, Revis declared himself 100 percent following Monday’s practice.

The Jets are 2-1 at their new Meadowlands Stadium, which opened in August and has FieldTurf. The Packers have played all their games on grass fields so far. Green Bay, though, is 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 times it has been an underdog.

The ‘over’ has cashed in the Jets’ last five games.

The early weather forecast is cloudy with temperatures in the 40s and a 10 percent chance of rain.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:27 PM

NFL oddsmakers still like the Chargers
By: *** Global | Friday, October 29, 2010

The Tennessee Titans are 5-2 while the San Diego Chargers are 2-5 but the Chargers are still getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers as they are favored at home on Sunday. The Titans are looking for their fourth straight win while the Chargers are trying to avoid their fourth straight loss.

San Diego is a 3½-point favorite with a total of 44½ at *** Global.

The Chargers have the best offense in the league in total yards and the best defense in the league in terms of fewest yards allowed. The problem for the Chargers is that they have the most turnovers in the AFC with 18. Even though their defense is leading the league in fewest yards allowed they have not forced a turnover in the last three games.

The San Diego offense leads the league in yards per game but the Chargers always seem to be coming from behind. Philip Rivers is having a great season and is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record. The problem for San Diego is that it has not been able to run the ball. The Chargers will need to run it on Sunday against a Tennessee team that leads the league with 12 interceptions.

The Titans have been winning even though their starting quarterback Vince Young has been hurt. He is expected back for this game though and he leads the second-ranked offense in the NFL in points per game.

Young will be able to throw the ball to Kenny Britt who has caught a TD in five consecutive games. And the Titans still have Chris Johnson who is considered the top running back in the league.

San Diego has beaten Tennessee seven straight times. The Chargers hold a 23-13-1 series edge over the Titans/Oilers. The Chargers are 14-3-1 against them at home. Here are more betting stats for Sunday’s game:

•The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
•The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC.
•The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings against San Diego.
•The Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
•The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
As for NFL betting totals, the 'under' is 5-1 in the Titans' last six road games. The 'over' is 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight home games. The 'over' is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2010, 08:28 PM

Steelers and Saints top Week 8 NFL betting
By: Sports Interaction | Friday, October 29, 2010

Big Ben gets his biggest test since returning from suspension when the Steelers take on the Saints in Sunday Night Football.
Pittsburgh’s offense has moved up a gear in the two weeks since Ben Roethlisberger returned. The Steelers are averaging only 300.7 yards of total offense per game for the season but Big Ben passed for 302 yards on his second game back from suspension to lead a fired-up Steelers team past the Dolphins last week.

Despite New Orleans' electrifying passing game, Roethlisberger might not need a repeat performance to overcome the Saints on Sunday night.

The Steelers defense will have little trouble stuffing New Orleans’ ineffective running game. Short-passing routes will also prove dangerous for Drew Brees against Pittsburgh, which will force the Saints’ quarterback to try and air it out. This will increase the risk of turnovers and that should stunt the home team’s offense considerably.

Bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers to win big with Sports Interaction.

The Patriots escaped San Diego with a win despite failing on a risky fourth-down conversion late in the game last week. I don’t expect them to be quite so fortunate on Sunday against Minnesota.

The Vikings are playing what looks like their second elimination game in three weeks. A loss here and making the playoffs will be near impossible, effectively ending Brett Favre’s career on a whimper. Somehow I just can’t see that happening, not this week.

Injury or no injury, Favre won’t need to be mobile to pick apart a poor Patriots defense this Sunday. I expect him to take the field with heavy strapping and lead Minnesota to a crucial road win. Bet on the Minnesota Vikings and win big with Sports Interaction Houston Texans and win big with Sports Interaction.

Monday Night Football sees a rematch from the opening week of the season. The Colts are hungry for revenge against the upstart Texans. Indianapolis is minus 5½-point at home.

I like the underdog in this game as Houston have the game required to beat the Colts. Matt Schaub’s arm and Arian Foster’s legs provide the perfect combination against this Indianapolis defense. The Texans have endured their own struggles on defense but with Peyton Manning having limited options in the passing game, the Colts may not have the firepower capitalize on Houston’s weaknesses. I like the Texans to complete a rare season-sweep of the Colts on Monday; bet on the Houston Texans and win big with Sports Interaction.

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