NFL week 7

[roccodean]

Good luck to all!

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units


All rankings are based on yards/rush and yards/pass attempt-this is more accurate than total yards.


Possible plays on Carolina, Miami, T.B.-please check back

3* Chicago over Washington
I am waiting on this one to try to get it at 2.5. It is a 3* at -3 or better.
Da Bears are in good position for the W here. The Skins aren't going to be able to score against a Bears D that is 5th versus the run and 2nd versus the pass. On the flip side, the Skins cannot stop the Bears average offense as they rank 27th versus the run and 20th versus the pass. After losing as a 6 point favorite at home they will be motivated to get a win here. The Bears have good line value here because they are off the favorite loss and the public is backing Washington. Take the Bears in an easy win.

1* K.C. -9 over Jax
I wish Garrard was playing because this line would be about 7, but I don't think the line will come into play. Whether Trent Edwards (who is pitiful) or Todd Bouman (who hasn't taken a snap since 2005 and is more pitiful) the Jags won't move the all against a KC D (7th versus the run and 16th versus the pass) that is very good. When the Chiefs have the ball their good run game (4th) and pretty good pass game (13th) will be able to move the ball against a bad Jags D (20th versus run and dead last versus pass). My math system has the Chiefs as 13.5 point favorites. The Chiefs are off back to back road losses and I don't see them losing coming back home. Blowout city!

[Dat Boi E]

good luck on Sunday, Rocco!

[BigWeiner]

really like the chiefs also, good luck

[roccodean]

thanks guys.

I never have bet totals, but have been working on a math system to predict totals since week 4 last year. Last year it was 15-11 and this year (since week 4) it is 6-1. Obviously not enough games or data to be statistically significant, so I am not going to start playing it until I see more results but I will start posting them here as long as they keep on hitting and I think the system is profitable.

Over the total:
Oak/Denver (best play)
Tb/St. Lou
Buff/balt
Under:
Min/GB

[roccodean]

made an error, minn/gb not a play, but under on sf/car is a play on system.

[roccodean]

chicago upgraded to 4* at -3 or better

1* TB -3 over St. Louis
T.B. is a solid team in a good situation this week. They are coming off a blowout home loss to the Saints, while the Rams are coming off a big home under dog win. Statistically, the Rams are bad being ranked 28th in rushing and 30th in passing. On the flip side of the ball, the Rams are 23rd in rushing D and 14th in passing D. My math system has this game at TB -4. There is a 82-42 ATS trend favoring the Bucs because of the situation mentioned above. Take the Bucs in the big sombrero.

1* Carolina +3 over S.F.
Apparently the Niners are still being judged on their preseason rankings (when they were supposed to be good). Both of these teams are bad, but the Panthers defense is very good being ranked 8th versus run and 3rd versus pass. San Fran doesn't score enough points to be a 3 point road dog. Carolina is a winless home dog off a bye, these teams have covered about 65% since 1992. I think this will be a low scoring game and Carolina gets a close cover.

[Kaptain]

gl today