NoSweat - College Analysis on All Games - Updated Throughout the Day

[NoSweatBets]

Hey guys,
Last weekend I started off great in the morning and did ok at the end of the night. UDubb really hurt the units last week, but I still came up for the day. I'm expecting a great day today. I will be updating this thread all day long. I'm still looking over the card for all the games at 3:30 ET and beyond. Here are the predictions for the morning games. I will update the rest of the card as the day progresses. Also, I will be posting all my halftime bets in this thread too. If you have any questions about any of my plays, feel free to ask. Best of luck all!


Michigan State vs. Northwestern
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Northwestern +6
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 53.5
Final Score Prediction: Northwestern 21 - Michigan State 20
I'm expecting a full blown upset in this game. This line jumped out at me when the lines came out on Sunday and the computers love this game. Everything is screaming out Northwestern in this game. Line wise, the line opened up at 7.5 and is now down to 6 or 5.5 on some books. The percentages were all over Michigan State early in the week, yet the line was moving in the wrong way. There is major reverse line movement in this game. As of right now, over 85 percent is on Michigan State ML and 70+ percent on Michigan State spread. Like I have mentioned before, reverse line movement is not something to make a play on. I've studied reverse line movement a lot, and it usually only hits around 60 percent. It's an edge, but not a huge edge. The big thing is that Michigan State has a huge game next week against Iowa. It's hard to be fired up every week to play, and Northwestern has played the Spartans tough throughout the years. With the reverse line movement, with my computer simulations loving this game, and my own personal feeling on Northwestern, I'm giving this game a rating of 5. I'm dropping 3 units on the 1H and 5 units on Northwestern for the game. Also, I'm putting 2 units on the ML. Northwestern is my major play today and I'm very confident that they will win today.


Notre Dame vs. Navy
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Navy +7
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 49
Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 20 - Navy 17
It seems like every week I'm betting against or on Notre Dame and Navy. Now, these teams play each other in a game that has been getting a lot of chatter. The line opened up at Notre Dame -6 and now is sitting at Notre Dame at -7. Notre Dame has had trouble stopping the run the whole year, and I expect Navy to be able to run wild against them. I expect Navy to grind the clock as much as possible, in a low scoring game. The line has been moving the right way, with the general public on Notre Dame at 68 percent. We all know Notre Dame is a huge public team, and I expect them to disappoint today. I don't think Navy will actually win the game outright, so I will not be taking their ML. I will be taking the points though and I will be laying 1 unit on the 1st half, and 2 units on Navy +7.


Maryland vs. Boston College
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Boston College -4
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 41.5
Final Score Prediction: Boston College 31 - Maryland 21
I'm expecting this to be a high scoring affair with BC's offense finally coming around. The line opened up at -5 and has dropped to -4. Early betting percentages were all over BC and now roughly 65 percent is still on them. There is reverse line movement in this game, but like I've said, you can never make a wager because of this. I was all over Clemson last week against Maryland, and I'm very confident that BC will cover this week. Maryland can not execute. They were moving the ball, but making mistake after mistake. I expect the same from them this week when they go into BC. BC showed major improvement last week against FSU, and I see these teams going in two opposite directions. My computers are all over BC even with the reverse line movement. Take BC first half, and take BC for the game, for 3 units each. I'll see you guys at the ticket counter.

Rutgers vs. Pittsburgh
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Rutgers +12.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 46
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 24 - Rutgers 14
Last week, I was all over Pittsburgh -1.5 against Syracuse. The Panthers came out firing blowing out the Orange. I don't understand how the books now give so much love to Pitt after one good offensive game. 12.5 points is a lot of points, especially when we are dealing with a team that has struggled to score going against a good defensive team. Line-wise, the line opened up at 11.5 and moved up to 13 during the midweek. Now, the line has dropped back down to 12.5. Early percentages were favoring Pittsburgh by over 70 percent, but now the public is completely split on this game, with late money coming in on Rutgers. The computer system I use is putting Rutgers at an edge. On most simulations, Rutgers have covered the spread. I don't expect them to win, and I see very little value in either MLs. I will be betting 1 unit on the Rutgers 1st half and 1 unit on the game.


Temple vs. Buffalo
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Buffalo +8
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 47.5
Final Score Prediction: Temple 20 - Buffalo 17


Iowa State vs. Texas
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texas -21
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 48
Final Score Prediction: Texas 35 - Iowa State 10


Duke vs. VA Tech
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Duke +27
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 61.5
Final Score Prediction: VA Tech 31 - Duke 17


Penn State vs. Minnesota
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Penn State -9.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50
Final Score Prediction: Penn State 38 - Minnesota 20


Purdue vs. Ohio State
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Ohio State -23.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 47.5
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 45 - Purdue 20


Syracuse vs. West Virginia
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Syracuse +13.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 43.5
Final Score Prediction: West Virginia 31 - Syracuse 24


Indiana vs. Illinois
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Illinois -13
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 55
Final Score Prediction: Illinois 38 - Indiana 14


Mississippi vs. Arkansas
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Arkansas -10
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 58.5
Final Score Prediction: Arkansas 42 - Mississippi 21


Florida Atlantic vs. Arkansas State
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Arkansas State -7.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 54
Final Score Prediction: Arkansas State 28 - Florida Atlantic 13


Ohio vs. Miami Ohio
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Ohio -3
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 49.5
Final Score Prediction: Ohio 21 - Miami Ohio 16


Wyoming vs. BYU
No Sweat Rating: 2 - BYU -10.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 44.5
Final Score Prediction: BYU 31 - Wyoming 17

[NoSweatBets]

Few more at the moment.

Kansas State vs. Baylor
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Baylor -6.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 56.5
Final Score Prediction: Baylor 31 - Kansas State 17
This line is a little odd in my opinion. Kansas State just got off national television blowing out Kansas on the road. Now they go to Baylor and they are 6.5 dogs? This line really does not make sense to me. I know Baylor has a high explosive offense, but Kansas State has played well every game except the Nebraska game. The line opened up at 6.5 and has stayed at 6.5. The public is almost completely split on this game. My computers are backing Baylor here, but not by that much. I think this is a very strange line though. Baylor should be like -3, not -6.5. With such a line difference, I usually go with the strange line. Therefore, I will be placing 1 unit on Baylor 1H and 1 unit for the Baylor game.


Kent State vs. Bowling Green
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Kent State -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50
Final Score Prediction: Kent State 31 - Bowling Green 27


Western Michigan vs. Akron
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Akron +7.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50.5
Final Score Prediction: Akron 28 - Western Michigan 27


Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Nebraska -6.0
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 60
Final Score Prediction: Nebraska 42 - Oklahoma State 21
I'm smelling a blowout here. While I was all over Texas ML last week, many people were on Nebraska. Now that Nebraska had a big letdown, people are fading them. On the other hand, Oklahoma State has been rolling all season. Nebraska is on the road, as a 6 point favorite now? A little odd to me. The line opened up at 3.5 and has jumped all the way to 6. The public has been hitting Nebraska all week and the line has been moving faster than it should. With roughly 70 percent of the public on the Huskers, the line shouldn't be moving this fast. I like Nebraska to dominate this game and easily win. Take Nebraska 1H for 2 units, while taking the game for 3.


Rice vs. Central Florida
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Rice +22.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 52
Final Score Prediction: Central Florida 24 - Rice 10

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, no sweat!

[NoSweatBets]

Navy Cashed, Northwestern cashed, Rutgers cashed all on the first half.

Guys, hate to do this. But I see HUGE value on Texas -10 2nd half. I am putting 7.5 units on this game. This is a great 2nd half!!!

[NoSweatBets]

Looking good so far boys. Here is the card up until 5:00 Eastern. Some solid mid-day winners.

Kansas State vs. Baylor
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Baylor -6.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 56.5
Final Score Prediction: Baylor 31 - Kansas State 17
This line is a little odd in my opinion. Kansas State just got off national television blowing out Kansas on the road. Now they go to Baylor and they are 6.5 dogs? This line really does not make sense to me. I know Baylor has a high explosive offense, but Kansas State has played well every game except the Nebraska game. The line opened up at 6.5 and has stayed at 6.5. The public is almost completely split on this game. My computers are backing Baylor here, but not by that much. I think this is a very strange line though. Baylor should be like -3, not -6.5. With such a line difference, I usually go with the strange line. Therefore, I will be placing 1 unit on Baylor 1H and 1 unit for the Baylor game.


Kent State vs. Bowling Green
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Kent State -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50
Final Score Prediction: Kent State 31 - Bowling Green 27


Western Michigan vs. Akron
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Akron +7.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 50.5
Final Score Prediction: Akron 28 - Western Michigan 27


Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Nebraska -6.0
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 60
Final Score Prediction: Nebraska 42 - Oklahoma State 21
I'm smelling a blowout here. While I was all over Texas ML last week, many people were on Nebraska. Now that Nebraska had a big letdown, people are fading them. On the other hand, Oklahoma State has been rolling all season. Nebraska is on the road, as a 6 point favorite now? A little odd to me. The line opened up at 3.5 and has jumped all the way to 6. The public has been hitting Nebraska all week and the line has been moving faster than it should. With roughly 70 percent of the public on the Huskers, the line shouldn't be moving this fast. I like Nebraska to dominate this game and easily win. Take Nebraska 1H for 2 units, while taking the game for 3.


Rice vs. Central Florida
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Rice +22.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 52
Final Score Prediction: Central Florida 24 - Rice 10


Texas Tech vs. Colorado
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texas Tech -3
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 56.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech 31 - Colorado 20


Connecticut vs. Louisville
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Connecticut +3
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 54
Final Score Prediction: UConn 24 - Lousville 17


Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Georgia Tech +5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 52
Final Score Prediction: Georgia Tech 28 - Clemson 21
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson. Two teams I seem to bet on each week. Let's talk about the line here. The line opened up at Clemson -5 1/2 and now has dropped down to 5 and some places 4.5. The public is on GTech slightly yet the line has reversed a bit. Hmm...why? Not really sure to be honest and I'm not going to worry about it. Ga Tech has been improving each week while Clemson is at a stand still. I was all over Clemson last week against Maryland, but I wasn't too happy with how they played. I still think Ga Tech can win the ACC if they don't make the costly turnovers that plagued them early in the season. I see a lot of value with GA Tech today. I will be taking them for 2 units on the half, 2 units on the game, and 1 unit on the ML.


Wisconsin vs. Iowa
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Wisconsin +6.5
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Under 47.5
Final Score Prediction: Iowa 17 - Wisconsin 14
The line opened up at Iowa -5 and has jumped up to -6.5. While 75+ percent of the public is on Iowa, there is a little more money on the Whisky ML. I don't like Iowa -6.5, and I don't like Whisky to win outright. The line movement has been moving the right way, but I think getting Wisky at +6.5 is quite solid. I think both of these teams will pound the ball, sending this game under. Take the under for 4 units and take Whisky at +6.5 for the game for 3 units. See you at the ticket counter.


Houston vs. SMU
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Houston +8.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 63
Final Score Prediction: Houston 24 - SMU 21


Arizona State vs. Cal
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Arizona State +3
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 51
Final Score Prediction: Arizona State 35 - Cal 31
This game features two teams that are going completely the opposite way. Arizona State has played all of their opponents tough this year, while Cal has been hit or miss. I really think that Arizona State +3 and the ML is a solid play. Cal's defense has more holes in it than swiss cheese, and the former Michigan Wolverine has been moving the ball quite well for ASU. The line opened up at 2.5 and moved to 3. The public is pounding Cal at over 70 percent. I really see Arizona State pulling the "upset" today. The computers like ASU, and this game has stuck out from last Sunday. I'm taking ASU for 3 units and 1 unit on the ML.


LSU vs. Auburn
No Sweat Rating: 4 - LSU +5.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 52
Final Score Prediction: LSU 24 - Auburn 17
This game looks like a HUGE trap. LSU and Les Miles have not won impressively at all. They needed a miracle against Tennessee and another miracle against Florida. And how good is Florida and Tennessee? Not good at all. On the other hand, Auburn has looked awesome with their new "heisman" QB. I'm expecting a huge letdown today for Auburn. The line opened up at 5 and has moved to 5.5 on some books. While the general public is completely split on this game, my computers have had LSU winning on almost all the simulations. Personally, I love LSU in this position, but I never bet on just my thoughts. I'm taking LSU 1H for 3 units, LSU game for 3 units, and LSU moneyline for 3 units. Best of luck all on this one!


Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
No Sweat Rating: 2- CMU +10
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 54
Final Score Prediction: Central Michigan 31 - Northern Illinois 28


Marshall vs. East Carolina
No Sweat Rating: 2 - East Carolina -12.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 62
Final Score Prediction: East Carolina 34 - Marshall 17


UL Monroe vs. Middle Tennessee State
No Sweat Rating: 2 - MTSU -12
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 55.5
Final Score Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 31 - UL Monroe 14


New Mexico State vs. Idaho
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Idaho -24
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 53.5
Final Score Prediction: Idaho 42 - New Mexico State 14


Hawaii vs. Utah State
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Utah State +3.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 58
Final Score Prediction: Utah State 27 - Hawaii 24


Western Kentucky vs. ULL Lafayette
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Western Kentucky +6
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 54
Final Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 28 - ULL Lafayette 24