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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (10/24 - 10/25)

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  • NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (10/24 - 10/25)





    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Sunday, October 24 - Monday, October 25

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  • #2
    NFL
    Dunkel



    Buffalo at Baltimore
    The Ravens look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10 1/2 points or more. Baltimore is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-13). Here are all of this week's picks.

    SUNDAY, OCTOBER 24

    Game 403-404: Pittsburgh at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)

    Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.940; Miami 133.862
    Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 43
    Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Over

    Game 405-406: Cincinnati at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.307; Atlanta 135.183
    Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 38
    Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); Under

    Game 407-408: Jacksonville at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.763; Kansas City 134.702
    Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 10; 47
    Vegas Line: No Line
    Dunkel Pick: N/A

    Game 409-410: Philadelphia at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.790; Tennessee 137.698
    Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 7; 40
    Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 43
    Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

    Game 411-412: Washington at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.500; Chicago 134.790
    Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 37
    Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 40
    Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

    Game 413-414: Cleveland at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.877; New Orleans 137.241
    Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 48
    Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+13 1/2); Over

    Game 415-416: Buffalo at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 122.595; Baltimore 139.985
    Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 17 1/2; 35
    Vegas Line: Baltimore by 13; 39
    Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-13); Under

    Game 417-418: San Francisco at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 127.374; Carolina 126.884
    Dunkel Line: Even; 39
    Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 35 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

    Game 419-420: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.581; Tampa Bay 129.649
    Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 36
    Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 38
    Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-2 1/2); Under

    Game 421-422: Arizona at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 124.762; Seattle 128.079
    Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 44
    Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+6); Over

    Game 423-424: New England at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: New England 133.012; San Diego 136.910
    Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 51
    Vegas Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 47
    Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-2 1/2); Over

    Game 425-426: Oakland at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.306; Denver 135.076
    Dunkel Line: Denver by 10; 38
    Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under

    Game 427-428: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:20 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 134.719; Green Bay 136.469
    Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 47
    Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 44
    Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over


    MONDAY, OCTOBER 25

    Game 429-430: NY Giants at Dallas (8:35 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.942; Dallas 135.504
    Dunkel Line: Even; 42
    Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 44
    Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL
      Long Sheet



      Week 7

      Sunday, October 24

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      PITTSBURGH (4 - 1) at MIAMI (3 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      PITTSBURGH is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
      PITTSBURGH is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
      MIAMI is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
      MIAMI is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      MIAMI is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
      MIAMI is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
      PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      CINCINNATI (2 - 3) at ATLANTA (4 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      CINCINNATI is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) in October games since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      JACKSONVILLE (3 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      JACKSONVILLE is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
      JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
      JACKSONVILLE is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
      JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
      JACKSONVILLE is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
      JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      PHILADELPHIA (4 - 2) at TENNESSEE (4 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      TENNESSEE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
      TENNESSEE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
      TENNESSEE is 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      WASHINGTON (3 - 3) at CHICAGO (4 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      CLEVELAND (1 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
      NEW ORLEANS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
      NEW ORLEANS is 17-39 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      BUFFALO (0 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      BALTIMORE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
      BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
      BALTIMORE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 5) at CAROLINA (0 - 5) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      SAN FRANCISCO is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
      SAN FRANCISCO is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
      CAROLINA is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
      CAROLINA is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      ST LOUIS (3 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      ST LOUIS is 109-141 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
      ST LOUIS is 109-141 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
      ST LOUIS is 78-110 ATS (-43.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
      ST LOUIS is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
      ST LOUIS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
      TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
      TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
      TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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      ARIZONA (3 - 2) at SEATTLE (3 - 2) - 10/24/2010, 4:05 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
      SEATTLE is 21-47 ATS (-30.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
      SEATTLE is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
      SEATTLE is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      ARIZONA is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
      ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 4) - 10/24/2010, 4:15 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NEW ENGLAND is 74-45 ATS (+24.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
      NEW ENGLAND is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
      SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      OAKLAND (2 - 4) at DENVER (2 - 4) - 10/24/2010, 4:15 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      OAKLAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
      DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
      DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      MINNESOTA (2 - 3) at GREEN BAY (3 - 3) - 10/24/2010, 8:20 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
      MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
      4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      Monday, October 25

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      NY GIANTS (4 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 4) - 10/25/2010, 8:35 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      DALLAS is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
      NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Comment


      • #4
        NFL
        Short Sheet



        Week 7

        Sunday, 10/24/2010

        PITTSBURGH at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
        PITTSBURGH: 23-10 ATS Away off a home division win
        MIAMI: 4-14 ATS at home off a win by 3 or less

        CINCINNATI at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
        CINCINNATI: 26-43 ATS in October games
        ATLANTA: 6-0 ATS after a loss by 10 or more

        JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
        JACKSONVILLE: 2-11 ATS off a division game
        KANSAS CITY: 5-1 UNDER off 2 straight road losses

        PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
        PHILADELPHIA: 33-17 ATS off 2 straight overs
        TENNESSEE: 7-3 OVER off a road win

        WASHINGTON at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
        WASHINGTON: 25-11 UNDER vs. NFC North division
        CHICAGO: 19-8 OVER at home after a loss by 6 or less

        CLEVELAND at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
        CLEVELAND: 10-0 UNDER vs. NFC South division
        NEW ORLEANS: 26-11 UNDER after a 2 game road trip

        BUFFALO at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
        BUFFALO: 7-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
        BALTIMORE: 6-0 UNDER after covering the spread 2 out of L3 games

        SAN FRANCISCO at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
        SAN FRANCISCO: 5-18 ATS Away after allowing 9 points or less
        CAROLINA: 11-2 ATS after scoring 6 points or less

        ST LOUIS at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
        ST LOUIS: 19-39 ATS off a non-conference game
        TAMPA BAY: 22-9 ATS after being outrushed by 100+ yards last game

        ARIZONA at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
        ARIZONA: 7-0 ATS in road games off 4+ Overs
        SEATTLE: 14-29 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 pts

        NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
        NEW ENGLAND: 74-45 ATS as an underdog
        SAN DIEGO: 8-1 OVER at home off road game

        OAKLAND at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
        OAKLAND: 6-15 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
        DENVER: 7-1 OVER off a home loss

        MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY, 8:20 PM ET NBC
        MINNESOTA: 4-13 ATS Away after a win by 3 or less
        GREEN BAY: 66-43 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses


        Monday, 10/25/2010

        NY GIANTS at DALLAS, 8:35 PM ET
        ESPN
        NY GIANTS: 6-0 OVER versus division opponents
        DALLAS: 15-3 ATS in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4

        ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

        Comment


        • #5
          NFL
          Write-Up



          NFL Week 7 games

          Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (3-2)—Home team is 0-5 in Miami games, with Fish losing 31-23/41-14 in pair of divisional home games, allowing six TDs on 17 drives, with no takeaways (-5). Steelers won last four series games by average score of 18-11; they’ve won five of last seven visits here (after losing first six visits to Miami). Pitt averaged 9.5 ypa in Big Ben’s return last week, converting 7-14 on 3rd down; they had averaged 6.04 in four games Ben missed, converting 14-49 (28.6%) on 3rd down. In five games, Fish have yet to start drive in enemy territory; opponents have eight, scoring 20 points. Steelers are 8-14 as road favorite since 2006. Miami is 5-9 as a home dog since 2007.

          Bengals (2-3) @ Falcons (4-2)—Cincy is 2-9 vs spread (1-4-1 SU) in game following its last six byes; they’re 3-8-1 vs spread last 12 times they were a post-bye underdog- they’re making only second visit in last 20 years to Atlanta, where Falcons are 2-0 (winning 41-7/16-14) this year. Birds are 11-4-1 as home favorite since ’07. Atlanta is 7-2 vs spread in game before its last nine byes; they allowed only two TDs on 19 drives in two home games, but Eagles’ 10.7 ypa last week is red flag. Falcons are just 15-43 on 3rd down last three games (were 26-51 in first three). NFC South teams are just 2-5-1 vs. spread this year as favorite in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 6-4-2 vs spread outside their division, 3-2-2 as a dog.

          Jaguars (3-3) @ Chiefs (3-3)—Jaguars have losses by 25-25-27 points, but won other three games, scoring average of 30.3 ppg; Garrard had concussion Monday night, am guessing Edwards starts here- there was no #3 QB Monday, so they’ll probably re-sign former #3 QB Nall as backup. Jags averaged 7.4+ ypa in three wins, 6.3/1.4/4.6 in losses; last week in Houston was first time this year Chiefs allowed more than 7.1 ypa. KC forced 11 3/outs on 25 dirves in winning first two home games, allowing 12 ppg. Road trip on short week after dismal performance by Jags Monday night; they’re 6-2 overall vs Chiefs, with four of last five wins by 6 or less points. KC scored 30—35 in their two series wins, averaged 14.3 peg in six losses.

          Eagles (4-2) @ Titans (4-2)—Tennessee off solid win Monday night; they’ve scored 29+ points in all four wins, 11-20 in losses; Philly held three of last four opponents to 17 or less points (gave up seven TDs on 45 drives). Titans lost last two home games, to Pitt/Denver; they’re 9-7 as home favorite last 2+ years. Eagles are 3-0 on road, scoring 30 ppg (11 TDs on 36 drives)- they averaged 10.7 ypa vs Falcons last week, but explosive WR Jackson probably out for this (concussion). Eagles won 40-26/34-14 in its pre-bye games last two years. Titans are +11 in turnovers in four wins (12-1), -7 in two losses (2-9). Philly had positive turnover ratio in five of six games. AFC South teams are just 4-6-2 vs spread at home in non-divisional home games this year.

          Redskins (3-3) @ Bears (4-2)—Bears were 6-14 on 3rd down in season opener vs. Lions; since then, they’re unspeakably bad 7-60 (11.7%) on 3rd down, 3-40 last three games. Chicago QB’s been sacked 19 times last three games, with only three TDs on last 42 drives, as Cutler shows inability/unwillingless to make quick dumpoff passes to beat blitz that are essential in running Martz Madness. Washington is 11-3 in last 14 series games, winning five of last six played here; average total in last three games is 26.3. Skins scored 16.5 ppg in splitting pair of road games; five of their six games were decided by 6 or less points, with underdogs 4-0-2 vs spread in their games. NFC North teams are 8-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

          Browns (1-5) @ Saints (4-2)—All six Cleveland games have been within six points at half, with Browns leading four of six, but they’ve been outscored 68-27 in second half of games, losing road games by 3-7-18 points (1-1-1 as road dog this year, 6-4-1 in last 11 as road dog). Road team won all three series games; Browns won 21-16/24-15 in previous visits here. Saints are 0-2-1 as home fave this year, scoring 14-24-16 points (six TDs on 27 home drives); in their two losses, they had three TDs, three FGs on eight red zone drives (six TDs, five FGs on 14 red zone drives in their wins). Browns’ QB McCoy was respectable in NFL debut last week, but They’ve still turned ball over three times in each of last two games, and few teams can win doing that. NFC South teams just 2-5-2 vs. spread as non-divisional favorite.

          Bills (0-5) @ Ravens (4-2)— You watch Edwards play QB For Jags Monday night and you wonder how a winless team can just cut him; Bills have been terrible this year, giving up 34-38-38-36 points in last four games, allowing 17 TDs on 42 drives. They even lost by 10 at home to Jags when they were +3 in turnovers- that doesn’t happen much. You’d think they’d have shot at Ravens taking them lightly, but doubtful with former Bill McGehee running ball for angry Raven team that lost tough OT game in Foxboro last week. Only one of four Baltimore wins this year is by more than seven points. Average total in last four series games is 27.0, with home side winning last three; Baltimore just 2-6 vs. spread in last eight pre-bye games (1-3 as favorite). Bills are 4-1 SU in last five post-bye games (5-2-1 as post-bye dog since ’95).

          |49ers (1-5) @ Panthers (0-5)— These two are combined 1-10, but were favored in six of the 11 games. Carolina going back to Moore at QB after scoring 8.5 ppg in last four games (four TDs on 47 drives); they’ve won six of last eight games vs. 49ers, with average total in last three 52.0. Niners got first win at home in rain last week; they’re 0-3 on road this year, scoring 6-10-14 points, and 2-8-1 vs spread as road favorite since 2002. Panthers lost last two games despite being positive in TO’s both games; they’re 0-3 at home, scoring 7-7-6 points- since ’06, they’re 4-6 as a home dog. NFC West teams are 1-3 as non-divisional favorites; NFC South teams are 3-9-2 against the spread in non-divisional games, 1-4 if an underdog.

          Rams (3-3) @ Bucs (3-2)—St Louis has trailed at half just once this year, but they’ve lost last five road games overall, scoring just 9.2 ppg; they’ve been outscored 34-3 in second half of last two games. Jackson needs big day against Buc defense that in last three games gave up average of 187.3 rushing yards/week. Bucs are 3-0 if they score 17+ points; they were held to 13/6 in losses- they don’t have a sack in last three games, so Bradford should have time to hit his newest WR, 6-5 Alexander. Bucs were outscored 55-13 in first half of last three games. In three wins, Rams averaged 6.1/6.4/5.4 ypa- they were held under five yards/pass attempt in all three losses. Since start of ’07 season, Rams are 10-15 as road dogs; they’re 1-1 on road this year.

          Cardinals (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2)—Battle for first in better-than-advertised NFC West. Arizona won six of last seven series games, winning last four, the last three by 11+ points; Redbirds won last two visits here, 27-20/26-3, but they lost last two road games 41-7/41-10 after winning road opener at St Louis. Seahawks won both home games, 31-6 over 49ers, 27-20 over Chargers. In last two games, Arizona has four TDs, but three of them were scored by defense, and fourth came on 2-yard drive where it took three plays to score (on fumble recovery by an OL). Undrafted rookie QB Hall gets first road start here; Arizona averaged 4.6 ypa or less in each of last four games, giving up 13 sacks in last two games. Over is 4-0 in Cardinals’ last four games, 3-1 in Seattle’s last four.

          Patriots (4-1) @ Chargers (2-4)—Schizophrenic San Diego is 0-4 on road, but won its two home games 38-13/41-10, scoring 10 TDs on 20 drives; they’re 2-4 despite being favored by 4.5+ points in every game so far- they’ve got nine takeaways (+5) n their two wins, two (-8) in their losses. Patriots are 1-1 on road, but needed TDs on INT, kick return and blocked FG to pull away in Miami (first NFL team to score TDs that way in same game). First road game without star WR Moss—could they be looking ahead to Vikings’ (and Moss’s) visit to Foxboro next week? Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, with teams splitting last six after Pats had won previous 10. Since 2003, Bolts are 27-16-2 as home favorite, Patriots 15-5-1 as road underdogs. Four of five New England games went over the total.

          Raiders (2-4) @ Broncos (2-4)—Raiders are 10-2 as road underdog in division games last four years. Should be noted that home favorites in divisional games off to dreadful 2-11 start vs spread this year. Road team won last four games in this rivalry, with Raiders winning last two visits here, after losing 11 of previous 13. Since racing to 6-0 start LY, Denver is 4-12 in its last 16 games, losing in last 1:30 last week on long pass interference penalty when Jets had 4th-and-7 and appeared dead. Broncos did cover only time they were favored this year; they’re now 5-19-1 as home favorite since start of ’06 season. Only one of four Raider losses is by more than eight points; they’re 0-3 on road, though—Janikowski’s missed FG at end of Arizona game is going to haunt them at season’s end.

          Vikings (2-3) @ Packers (3-3)—Favre Bowl III finds Packers just second team in last 5+ years to play consecutive weeks in OT (’07 Jets played consecutive OT games, but had their bye week in between the two games). LY Steelers split consecutive road games in OT, then came home and lost to Oakland as 14-point favorites. Vikings swept Pack LY, 30-23/38-26; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 14-9 (+5) in Superdome, 29-20 (+4) to Jets, going 3/out on 11 of 23 drives. Key variables here are whether Packer LB Matthews will be healthy enough to torment now-immobile Favre into hurried throws, and how much of playbook has Moss digested. Last four Packer games were all decided by 2-3 points, with dog covering all four. Five of six Green Bay games stayed under total.


          Giants (4-2) @ Cowboys (1-4)—These celebration penalties are a problem for Dallas; in their last three losses, they lost field position battle by 13-15-19 yards, which is a lot!!! Dallas lost four of last five series games; average total in last nine series tilts is surprisingly high 51.8. Over their last 12 visits here, Giants went LWLWLWLWLWLW, so if that holds, Dallas wins. Immature Cowboys got another 15-yard penalty after a TD last week, then allowed kick return for TD to open second half, last time they led in game- they’re 0-2 at home, giving up 30.5 ppg. Giants won last three games, allowing just 11 ppg (three TDs on 38 drives); over last 20 years, they’re 4-2 vs. spread as a pre-bye dog. Giants have eight takeaways in their last three games (+2).

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL
            Write-Up



            Week 7

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            Trend Report
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            Sunday, October 24

            1:00 PM
            BUFFALO vs. BALTIMORE
            Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
            Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
            Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

            1:00 PM
            PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI
            Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
            Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
            Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

            1:00 PM
            CINCINNATI vs. ATLANTA
            Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
            Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

            1:00 PM
            JACKSONVILLE vs. KANSAS CITY
            Jacksonville is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
            Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
            Kansas City is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games at home
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home

            1:00 PM
            WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
            The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games
            Washington is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
            Chicago is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
            Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

            1:00 PM
            CLEVELAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
            Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
            New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games at home

            1:00 PM
            PHILADELPHIA vs. TENNESSEE
            Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
            Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
            Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
            Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

            1:00 PM
            ST. LOUIS vs. TAMPA BAY
            St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
            The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
            Tampa Bay is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games at home

            1:00 PM
            SAN FRANCISCO vs. CAROLINA
            San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
            San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
            Carolina is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home

            4:05 PM
            ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
            Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
            Seattle is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
            Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

            4:15 PM
            OAKLAND vs. DENVER
            Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Oakland
            Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland

            4:15 PM
            NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
            The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
            New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing New England
            San Diego is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

            8:20 PM
            MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
            Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
            Green Bay is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games


            Monday, October 25

            8:30 PM
            NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
            NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
            The total has gone OVER in 8 of the NY Giants last 11 games
            Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 16 games


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            Comment


            • #7
              NFL


              Sunday, October 24


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              Tips and Trends
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              New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers [CBS | 4:15 PM ET]

              PATRIOTS: New England is coming off their best game of the season, a 23-20 SU win over Baltimore. As a result of that win, New England stands 4-1 SU on the season. The Patriots are clearly playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they feel they are a bit underrated this year, especially without star WR Randy Moss. From an ATS standpoint, that simply isn't the case though, as they are only 2-2-1 this year. The Patriots will be playing their 3rd road game of the season today, as they have gone 1-1 both SU and ATS thus far. QB Tom Brady will need to be on point today, because points are sure to be put on the scoreboard. Without a legit running game, the Patriots have struggled to score points on the road this season. Regardless, New England is averaging an NFL high 30.8 PPG. Brady has thrown for 1,200 YDS this year, including 10 TD's against 4 INT's. Brady has plenty of receiving threats, including the addition of WR Deion Branch. Branch had 9 receptions for 98 YDS and a TD in his first game back with the Patriots last week. Defensively, the Patriots are still amongst the worst in the NFL. New England is allowing 23.2 PPG and 383 YPG overall this year. New England is 13-6-3 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog.

              Patriots are 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
              Over is 13-6 last 19 games as a road underdog.

              Key Injuries - RB Fred Taylor (toe) is questionable.

              Projected Score: 21

              CHARGERS: (-3, O/U 48) San Diego might be the easiest team to predict in the NFL. When San Diego is at home you back them, and when they are on the road you fade them. Whether it's SU or ATS, the facts are simple. San Diego is 2-4 both SU and ATS, undefeated at home and winless on the road this year. Coach Turner has to be on the hot seat, as clearly San Diego is far more talented than their 2-4 record would indicate. QB Phillip Rivers is putting up huge offensive numbers, all for not. Rivers has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS this season, the only QB in the NFL over 2,000 YDS. Rivers leads an offense that is averaging 26.2 PPG this year, 5th best in the NFL. Defensively, San Diego has slipped up over the past 2 weeks. San Diego has allowed St. Louis and Oakland combine for 55 points. The Chargers special teams have been arguably the worst in football. Time and time again this unit has let down the whole team, and cost them a victory. The Chargers are 6-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October.

              Chargers are 6-1 ATS last 7 games following an ATS loss.
              Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a home favorite.

              Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (ankle) is questionable.

              Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)


              Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers [NBC | 8:30 PM ET]

              VIKINGS: Minnesota is coming off a big win over Dallas, a game that many considered a must win situation. The Vikings are 2-3 both SU and ATS overall this season. Minnesota will have to play their most complete game of the season today if they are to beat an emotional situation in Green Bay. The Vikings players will all have to rally around QB Brett Favre. Favre has really struggled this season, both on the field and away from it. RB Adrian Peterson can certainly help his team out with a big rushing performance today. Peterson leads the league with 110.6 rushing YPG this season. He's only scored 4 TD's this season, and Minnesota is certainly counting on that to change. The Vikings are led by their defense, a unit that is only allowing 18.7 PPG this year. Minnesota defends the pass well, as they only allow 192 passing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. Against the highly aggressive Packers aerial attack, the Vikings pass defense will be severely tested. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC. Minnesota is 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog up to a field goal. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

              Vikings are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games overall.
              Under is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU win.

              Key Injuries - WR Sidney Rice (hip) is questionable.

              Projected Score: 23

              PACKERS: (-3, O/U 44) Green Bay is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS overall this season, losing all 3 games by exactly 3 points. The Packers have lost back to back games, both of which happened in overtime. Tonight's game against the Vikings will represent the first time this season the Packers won't be a double digit favorite at home. Motivation isn't likely to be an issue tonight, as Green Bay welcomes Brett Favre back home. The Vikings beat Green Bay both meetings last year, so revenge is certainly at the forefront for the Packers. QB Aaron Rodgers will need to have a big game tonight, and he's more than capable. Rodgers has thrown for 1,546 YDS this season, along with 10 TD's in leading this offense. Since the injury to RB Ryan Grant, the Packers have become even more dependent on their passing attack. Defensively, only 1 team has scored more than 20 PTS against Green Bay in regulation. Overall, the Packers are allowing 18.7 PPG, a stat they would love to improve on against their bitter nemesis. The Packers are 5-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as the listed favorite. Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on grass.

              Packers are 17-8 ATS last 25 games against the NFC North.
              Over is 9-3 last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record.

              Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.

              Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)


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              Comment


              • #8
                NFL


                Week 7


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                NFL Total Bias: Week 7 over/under picks
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                I’m dizzy, depressed and queasy. I can’t focus on anything for more than a minute at a time. My head is spinning with headshot overload.

                I think all this concussion talk has given me a concussion.

                It’s one of those issues where there’s no black-and-white. We all obviously understand the NFL needs to protect its players, but yet we crave to see wideouts, running backs and quarterbacks get jacked up like Jackass 3D highlights.

                We’re brutes. We love football for those hits and on Sundays, we live for those plays. But the NFL’s a business and it can’t have star players getting knocked unconscious all over the field. It’s off-putting, makes people uncomfortable. The league needs 50-yard bombs and one-handed catches in the back of the end zone, not stretchers and MRI reports.

                So the NFL had to do something and what they did with the new hard lines regarding suspensions and fines for illegal hits is perfectly fine with me. In my opinion, it’s a long time coming. What I do have a major problem with is superstar players whining about it.

                James Harrison? You’re going to retire because of a $75,000 fine, guy? Go ahead and climb out of the sandbox with your sippy cup and take your little red wagon back to Akron then.

                It’s absurd. Harrison signed a $51 million contract in the offseason with 10 mil guaranteed so it’s not like he’s hunting for nickels under the couch cushions.

                And contrary to popular belief among NFL players, these rules aren’t going to change the game much on the field – or for bettors for that matter. Nobody’s going to let up because of the new rules; they may think twice about taking someone’s head off, but we’re still going to get our highlight hits. Bettors aren’t going to have to worry about totals going up or anything like that even if Brian Urlacher thinks he’s playing flag football now.

                It’s going to be the same game with more accountability. Josh Cribbs, one of Harrison’s victims from last week, knows what’s going on here.

                "I have no bad will towards LB James Harrison," Cribbs tweeted. "That's what he's supposed to do: knock people out. It's what makes him one of the best. ... He is still my boy ... It is unfortunate, but our sport is brutal. We will both bounce back & compete again real soon. ... Oh yeah & we play each other twice!"

                See?

                Cribbs is right: guys are going to get hit hard and hurt. The only difference now is the NFL has its behind covered so it can slap some fines and suspensions around when needed to avoid the “barbarian” and “gladiator” tags being thrown around in the media.

                Now let’s all just take a deep breath and go find a dark room until our headaches go away so we can concentrate on some picks.

                Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (3, 41)

                Luckily for the Steelers, Harrison did decide to come back to practice this week after coach Mike Tomlin granted him a mental health day. Despite his hissy fit, he still has 40 tackles, five sacks and four forced fumbles this year.

                Meanwhile, the Steelers have allowed more than 13 points just once this year and I can’t see that trend changing this week against a Dolphins club that’s averaging fewer than 18 points a game.

                Pick: Under


                Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (13, 43)


                This is one of those lines that you see at the first of the week and can’t get out of your head. It opened at 44 and has been on its way down since even though Drew Brees and the Saints finally put up some points last week at Tampa Bay. Chris Ivory was the difference, scampering for 154 yards to open up some lanes downfield.

                A little bit out of the running game goes a long way for the Saints. I think they’ll go over 30 points again with the Browns chipping in to put this over.

                Pick: Over


                New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5)


                Oh, I just can’t wait to see the headshots in this one.

                These games are always nasty enough as it is, but with Dallas playing on its dying breath against the 4-2 Giants, you have to think this is going to be a real war in the trenches. I think after weeks of giving up crazy penalty yardage, the Cowboys will finally get it together enough to keep this one tight while Eli Manning just does his Eli Manning thing: handing off and managing the clock.

                Smells like under.

                Pick: Under

                Last week: 1-2
                Season record: 8-11



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                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL


                  Sunday, October 24


                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  What Bettors Need to Know
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                  Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 44)

                  Line history

                  Books opened this NFC North battle with the Packers set as field-goal favorites and that number was moved to -2.5 with action on the underdog. The total opened at 44.5 points at most books and was bet down to 44 during the week.

                  Minnesota has won and covered the last two meetings with Green Bay and is 5-5 ATS in the past 10 contests with the Packers. The underdog has been the sharp play in this divisional series, going 17-5 ATS in the last 22 head-to-head meetings.

                  Favre Fest
                  Brett Favre made a triumphant return to Green Bay a year ago, eager to get back at the franchise that he felt unfairly kicked him to the curb after 16 seasons.

                  When Favre and the Minnesota Vikings pay a visit to Lambeau Field on Sunday night to take on the Packers, he may have a hard time digesting how much has changed in the past few weeks - much less a year.

                  The 41-year-old Favre, who was a three-time NFL MVP during his tenure with Green Bay, finds himself ensnared in controversy and at the center of a league investigation.

                  It's not exactly the best way to head into a key divisional clash in what promises to be an emotional game without the added presence of an NFL probe at Favre's doorstep.

                  Favre is under the microscope for allegedly sending inappropriate photos and text messages to a former New York Jets employee. That only promises to incite a raucous crowd at Lambeau.

                  Favre declined to comment on his meeting with league investigators this week, saying his focus is solely on the Packers. The feeling is surely mutual in the opposing locker room.

                  Tight race
                  Green Bay (3-3, 2-4 ATS) is coming off back-to-back overtime losses and battling myriad injuries as it tries to keep pace with NFC North leader Chicago while looking to avenge two defeats at the hands of Favre and the Vikings in 2009.

                  Even though Minnesota (2-3, 2-3 ATS) trails the Packers by a half-game, the Vikings showed their mettle a week ago by squeaking out 24-21 victory over Dallas in what was considered a must win to stay in playoff contention.

                  The Vikings prevailed despite just 188 yards of total offense. Favre, who has been battling elbow tendinitis, was 14 of 19 for 118 yards and Pro Bowl running back Adrian Peterson was limited to 73 yards on 24 carries.

                  Randy Moss will be playing in his third game with Minnesota and his first at Lambeau Field since January 2005, when he pretended to moon the crowd after scoring a touchdown. He has nine receptions and a touchdown in his first two games with the Vikings.

                  Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1,546 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he also has tossed five of his seven interceptions in the last three games.

                  The Packers’ last four games have been decided by a total of 11 points, three of them losses.


                  Getting healthy
                  The Packers are hoping for defensive reinforcements with cornerback Al Harris and safety Atari Bigby eligible to be activated off the physically unable to perform list.

                  Linebacker Clay Matthews, who leads the league with 8.5 sacks despite missing last week’s game with a sore hamstring, also is hoping to play Sunday.

                  Green Bay’s offense has struggled since Ryan Grant suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1. Tight end Jermichael Finley also was lost for the year in Week 4, taking away another big weapon.

                  Weather
                  Lambeau Field could be a soggy mess by the time Sunday’s game finishes. The forecast is calling for a 50 percent chance of precipitation with scattered thundershowers and temperatures in the low 60s. There will be a light 10-mph wind blowing from corner to corner.


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                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL


                    Sunday, October 24


                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    NFL Week 7 weather report: Rain and wind terrorize football betting
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                    You know it’s almost winter when the weather gets nasty. And with the football season almost at the midway mark, NFL teams are dealing with some less-than-perfect playing conditions this Sunday. Here’s a look at how the Week 7 weather can impact your bets:

                    Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (-3, 40)
                    The Windy City could be the soggy city with the forecasts calling for possible thundershowers Sunday afternoon. There is a 50 percent chance of precipitation with game-time temperatures dropping into the mid 60s. There will also be a 14-mph breeze blowing south straight down the field. Both teams depend on the pass, which could be grounded by the slick footing, wet footballs and blowing winds.

                    Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)
                    The skies should be mostly clear in Nashville but it could get a bit blustery. Winds between 15 and 20 mph will screech southwest from corner to corner, keeping quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and Vince Young or Kerry Collins (depending on Young’s injuries) fighting the breeze all game. The rain isn’t supposed to roll into Tennessee until later in the evening.

                    Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+3, 41)
                    Things should be fine come the 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but will get worse as the game goes on. The forecast in Miami is calling for isolated thunderstorms starting around 3 p.m. ET. While the game-time temps will be in the mid 80s, there might be a 17-mph wind blowing out of the East, across the field. With the weather getting worse in the second half, perhaps a look at the second-half total would be a sharp play after two quarters.

                    Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 39.5)
                    Would you expect anything less than rain in Seattle? The forecast is calling for the wet stuff to hit along with the 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. And not only will it be very loud and uncomfortable at Qwest Field, but it will be cold and windy, with game-time temps falling into the low 50s with wind reaching up to 20 mph. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season while the Cardinals will be playing in the exact opposite of desert weather, far from their weather-control domed home in Arizona.

                    New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-3, 48)
                    I shit you not – it could actually rain in San Diego Sunday. The city is notorious for fantastic football weather, but our editors would deliver a helmet-to-helmet hit if we didn’t mention the possibility of the Chargers playing in the muck at home. The forecast is calling for cloudy skies with a chance of rain later on in the day. With this game starting just after 4 p.m. ET, that weather could come into play in the fourth quarter - perfect time for the Pats to pull out a late cover on the road.

                    Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8, 42.5)
                    We’ll admit it, we had our fingers crossed that there might be snow in the Week 7 forecast. Denver won’t deliver the white stuff this Sunday but will subject the warm-weather Raiders to game-time temps dipping into the low 50s while a 12-mpg wind chills Invesco Field. Oakland is 0-3 (1-2 ATS) on the road this season but has covered in six of the last eight games with Denver.

                    Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 44)
                    Brett Favre isn’t the only one paying a visit to the Lambeau faithful. The late-October weather comes to Wisconsin, bringing with it scattered thundershowers, 13-mph winds and temperatures that could fall into low 50s by the time this NFC North war is said and done. The Vikes aren’t afraid of the cold weather, beating the Packers at Lambeau last November. But that rain could make passing difficult, as it did for Favre when Minnesota took on the New Jets in a wet and wild Monday night game two weeks ago.


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                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NFL


                      Monday, October 25


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                      What Bettors Need to Know
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                      New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5)

                      ODDS

                      The Cowboys are 3 to 3.5-point favorites at different sportsbooks and the oddsmakers are more content to adjust the moneyline associated with the pointspread than to move on and off the key number. Since favorites win by exactly 3 points nearly 10-percent of the time, some sportsbooks have Dallas -3 -125, while others have the Cowboys -3.5 +105.

                      The over/under line has held steady all week at 44.5, even though 70 percent of the public is supporting the over according to the *********** consensus.

                      INJURY REPORT
                      Dallas offensive guard Kyle Kosier will not play Monday as Kosier suffered a strained right Achilles on the last drive of the first half of the Minnesota game. Montrae Holland will start at left guard while Kosier is sidelined. Holland also started the season opener against Washington.

                      Dallas wide receiver Dez Bryant (ankle), linebacker Bradie James (knee), right tackle Marc Colombo (knee) and center Andre Gurode (knee) all practiced Saturday and are listed as probable.

                      For the Giants, fullback Madison Hedgecock (hamstring) and defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka (neck) are out. Receiver Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) and defensive ends Justin Tuck (ankle) and Osi Umenyiora (knee) are all probable.

                      NOT IN OUR HOUSE
                      Jerry Jones and his Cowboys opened their spectacular $1.2 billion stadium in a national spotlight game against the New York Giants last September. The grand-opening festivities didn’t go as planned after the Giants beat the Cowboys 33-31.

                      After the win, quarterback Eli Manning went into the visitor's locker room and wrote his name on the wall. He added the date and score, and added this line: ‘First win in the new stadium.’

                      After learning of Manning’s penmanship, Dallas linebacker Bradie James said last year, “We won’t forget that.”

                      When pressed about it, Manning made the excuse that somebody in the Cowboys’ organization asked him to do it. He has since confessed that he made that up, and that isn’t sitting too well with the Cowboys.

                      ”It wasn’t anybody from our organization that asked him,” head coach Wade Phillips said. “Things come back around in this league. I respect the team we play. That’s the way I approach the game and I expect our players to do the same thing.”

                      ORDERS FROM THE OWNER
                      Dallas comes into this game at just 1-4 straight-up. The Cowboys’ season is hanging on by a thread and there is a lot of tension inside of America’s Team. Owner Jerry Jones has always been a hands-on type and, with the season on the verge of disaster, Jones gave his team a simple message on Monday.

                      ”Put up or shut up,” Jones said. “You guys, we have everything in place. I’ve made the team sort of what it is right now. Everyone is playing well on this team, but the way we are playing is (selfish), undisciplined. We have got to find some way to stop being our own Achilles’ heel and win some games.”

                      DeMarcus Ware sees that the team as focused saying there’s more of a sense of urgency.

                      Coach Phillips agrees: “We practiced with a lot of determination. I see resolve. I see a lot of willpower, guys wanting to do the right thing.”

                      MR. OCTOBER
                      Giants quarterback Eli Manning has owned the month of October since coming into the league back in 2004. He is 19-4 as a starter in October, good for a .826 winning percentage. Manning’s October record is better than any quarterback in NFL history with at lease 20 starts since the Super Bowl era began back in 1967.

                      To put Manning’s record into perspective, look at some of the records of the current, upper-echelon quarterbacks in the NFL: Tom Brady (25-8, .757), Philip Rivers (8-10, .444), Ben Roethlisberger (17-5, .772), Brett Favre (37-29, .560) and Peyton Manning (33-14, .702).

                      ”It’s about being prepared,” Manning said. “It’s about being ready for situations that are thrown at you. A lot of times you make your own luck or make your own bad luck.”


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