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NCAAFB Best Bets + Trends & Notes 10/21-10/23 !

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  • #16
    Iowa hosts Wisconsin in key Big 10 clash

    So who’s the best team in the Big Ten Conference now that Wisconsin has knocked off Ohio State?

    Michigan State can lay claim. So also can the winner of the Wisconsin-Iowa game, which goes on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. (PT).

    The Hawkeyes currently are six-point college football betting favorites with the total at 48.

    Wisconsin is off one of the biggest wins in the five-year head coaching career of Bret Bielema knocking off top-ranked Ohio State, 31-18, last Saturday as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The combined 49 points pushed on the total.

    It was the first time since 1981 that Wisconsin defeated a No. 1 ranked team. It was the first time in five games, too, the Badgers covered versus a top 10 team under Bielema.

    Things could be rougher this Saturday for 10th-ranked Wisconsin, which has won six of its seven games. The Badgers not only have to guard against a letdown, but they have to play at Kinnick Stadium, where they are 1-4 ATS in their last five visits.

    Iowa has covered seven of the past eight times overall against the Badgers. Wisconsin has failed to break the 17-point barrier in four of their last five meetings versus the Hawkeyes.

    Iowa has covered 11 of the last 14 times it has been a home favorite of between 3 ½ and 10 points. Wisconsin is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road contests against a team with a winning home mark.

    The 13th-ranked Hawkeyes, 5-1, have offensive balance with the passing of Ricky Stanzi and running of Adam Robinson to go with a phenomenal defensive front.

    The Hawkeyes recorded four sacks and intercepted three Scott Tolzien passes in defeating the Badgers, 20-10, last year as two-point road ‘dogs. Iowa held Wisconsin to 87 rushing yards and 230 total yards. The combined 30 points went ‘under’ the 46 ½-point total.

    Stanzi helped lead Iowa past Wisconsin two years ago, 38-16. The Hawkeyes were 5 ½-point home favorites with the combined 54 points going ‘over’ the 41-point total. The Badgers rolled up 409 yards, but only managed one touchdown. Stanzi has completed 68 percent of his passes with no interceptions in two games versus Wisconsin.

    Stanzi, 22-5 as a starter, figures to test a Wisconsin secondary that ranks 70th in passing efficiency. Michigan State’s Kirk Cousins completed 20-of-29 passes against the Badgers for 269 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-24 home win on Oct. 2.

    Sparked by tailback John Clay, Wisconsin is the 12th-best rushing team in the nation averaging 232.7 yards on the ground. The Badgers are averaging 36.3 points per game, 16th-best in the country.

    Clay has rushed for 796 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. Tolzien has completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,353 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions. The Badgers have one of the best offensive lines in the country led by senior Gabe Carimi, a top pro prospect. Lance Kendricks also gives Wisconsin one of the best tight ends in the country.

    Iowa, though, has won its last eight games by double-digits. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 13.7 points per game, which rates sixth best in the nation. The Hawkeyes are seventh nationally against the run giving up 83.3 yards per game and 13th in total defense at 288.8 yards per contest.

    The Hawkeyes did have trouble last week containing Michigan, which put up 522 yards. Iowa came up with four turnovers in winning, 38-28, as 3 ½-point road favorites. The combined 66 points went ‘over’ the 53 ½-point total.

    Wisconsin, though, does not employ a spread-option attack like Michigan. Instead, the Badgers run a conventional pro-style offense.

    The weather report is for temperatures in the 50s with a 60 percent chance of showers.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #17
      Playoff Record:

      21-24-3 46.67% -1890

      Friday, October 22Game Score Status Pick Amount

      NY Yankees - 8:05 PM ET Texas +100 500
      Texas - Over 9 500
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #18
        Lewis tries to pitch Rangers into World Series

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        NEW YORK YANKEES
        at TEXAS RANGERS

        ALCS Game 6, Texas leads series 3-2
        Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -115, Texas +105 Total: 9

        The ALCS heads back to Arlington as the Rangers look to wrap things up and head to their first ever World Series. The pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2 with Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA) going up against Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA).

        Hughes had been dominant in his career against Texas (2-0, 0.00 ERA) until getting knocked around in Game 2. The right-hander surrendered seven runs on 10 hits and lasted just four innings as the Rangers won 7-2. The seven earned runs were the most Hughes had given up since May of 2009. His road numbers haven’t exactly been great this year, going 6-5 with a 4.25 ERA including that Game 2 start.

        Lewis pitched well in Game 2, giving the Rangers 5.2 innings and allowing two runs on six hits while picking up the win. It was the first win in four attempts for Lewis in his career against the Yankees. He’s now 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts dating back to the regular season. Including the playoffs, Lewis has pitched well at home, going 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA. He’s given up two runs over 10.2 innings at home this postseason against the Rays and Yankees.

        The following FoxSheets trends point toward a Texas victory:

        Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (81-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +42 units. Rating = 3*).

        Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (69-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.5%, +34.5 units. Rating = 2*).
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #19
          Collaros leads Cincy into Friday showdown with USF

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS (3-3)
          at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (3-3)

          Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Cincinnati -7.5, Total: 48

          Big East foes will both play their second consecutive weeknight game when they tangle in Cincinnati on Friday night. South Florida lost 20-6 at West Virginia last Thursday while the Bearcats notched a 35-27 road win at Louisville behind five touchdown passes from Zach Collaros. Cincinnati has scored 109 points in its past three games, all ATS wins.

          On the flip side, South Florida has just 15 total points in its past two games and has been outscored 71 to 29 by its three BCS opponents (Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia). The biggest problem is the USF passing offense that has averaged a mere 157 YPG this season (107th among FBS schools). B.J. Daniels has had a dreadful sophomore season with four touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Against the three BCS schools, that ratio is even more atrocious: 1 TD/9 INT. However, Daniels could find success through the air on Friday night considering Cincinnati’s pass defense is allowing 257 passing YPG (ranked 103rd in nation).

          Cincinnati has been great at home this year, averaging 38.0 PPG in three games. QB Zach Collaros is having an excellent season (17 TD, 3 INT) with a current four-game streak of at least three passing TD. The Bearcats are loaded with offensive talent. RB Isaiah Pead has rushed for an average of 109.4 YPG, which is 17th-best in the nation, and WRs DJ Woods and Armon Binns both place among the top-25 in FBS players in receiving yards per game. Woods (92 rec. YPG) also ranks 17th in the nation in all-purpose yards (117 YPG). Binns (88 rec. YPG) scored twice in a 34-17 win at USF last year and Collaros rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries in that win over the Bulls. Cincinnati also boasts a strong run defense (109 YPG, 21st in nation), but has forced just five turnovers in six games with a minus-6 turnover ratio.

          The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) in the past six meetings with the Bulls. This FoxSheets trend also likes Cincinnati on Friday:

          Play On - A home team (CINCINNATI) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 1.2+ YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (47-18 since 1992.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating = 3*).

          The FoxSheets also give two reasons to side with the Under:

          Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*).

          Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in October games. (34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).
          Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-22-2010, 02:48 PM.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #20
            Penn State is sizable road favorite at Minnesota

            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (3-3)
            at MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (1-6)

            Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Penn State -9.5, Total: 50

            One school is coming off two straight conference losses, as whispers of a historic coaching change saturate the program. Meanwhile, the other school is well past the point of “whispering” about change. That will be the backdrop for Saturday's Big Ten matchup when Penn State visits Minnesota. Saturday marks the debut of Minnesota interim head coach Jeff Horton, who takes over for Tim Brewster, who was fired last Sunday following a 28-17 loss at Purdue the previous day. That game marked the sixth straight defeat for the Gophers.

            How can a 1-6 Minnesota team hang with Joe Paterno’s Lions? The Gophers CAN score, averaging just under 25 PPG, and their 142 rushing YPG is nearly identical to the 146 rushing YPG that Penn State's defense has allowed this season. PSU’s defense is seeking redemption after allowing 437 total yards in a 33-13 Homecoming Game defeat versus Illinois. The ground game has been a source of concern for Joe Paterno on both sides of the football. Offensively, Penn State has totaled just 119 rushing yards against its two conference opponents, both losses.

            It remains to be seen if the Lions can take advantage of a Minnesota defense that allows 414 YPG, 201 of which come on the ground. If they are in attack mode, the Lions will have to be protective of the football. While Minnesota allows 31.7 PPG, it also has a +3 takeaway/giveaway ratio. While Minnesota takes, Penn State QB Rob Bolden occasionally likes to give. Bolden has thrown seven picks in six games. Since tossing two touchdowns in the season opener against Youngstown State, Bolden has just two TD passes in the past five games.

            Since 1992, Penn State leads the series 7-4 (4-7 ATS), and is 3-2 (2-3 ATS) at Minnesota, but this will be PSU's first time playing on the outdoor turf of TCF Bank Stadium. With a defense battered by injuries, and a starting freshman quarterback plagued a lack of productivity, Joe Paterno's squad could be hard-pressed to duplicate last season's 20-0 victory over Minnesota. But considering the Gophers are in more disarray than the Lions, the FoxSheets give two reasons why Penn State will win by double-digits on Saturday.

            Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a terrible team (outgained by 1.2+ YPP), after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game. (25-4 since 1992.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 3*).

            Paterno is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PENN ST. The average score was PENN ST 29.6, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 1*).

            The FoxSheets also like the Over on Saturday.

            Play Over - All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MINNESOTA) - after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 200 or more yards last game. (24-4 since 1992.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #21
              Iowa favored by six points over Wisconsin

              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              WISCONSIN BADGERS (6-1)
              at IOWA HAWKEYES (5-1)

              Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Iowa -6, Total: 48

              Two Big Ten title hopefuls square off in Iowa City on Saturday. Wisconsin is riding high after its upset over No. 1 Ohio State, but the Badgers are still 2-5 ATS this year. Iowa improved to 4-1 ATS with an impressive 38-28 victory at Michigan. Both teams have done an excellent job protecting the football. In the past five games, Wisconsin has only one turnover and Iowa has just three.

              The Badgers thrive off their 12th-ranked rushing attack (233 YPG) led by John Clay (114 YPG) and James White (80 YPG). Clay, who has five touchdowns in the past two games, has 164 rushing yards in two career games against Iowa, both Wisconsin losses. Senior QB Scott Tolzien has been dreadful in these meetings (19-for-32, 233 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT in two games), but he was relieved to find out that TE Lance Kendricks (cramps) and WR Nick Toon (leg) are both expected to play Saturday.

              Iowa has been unstoppable at home this year, outscoring its four opponents by a preposterous 138 to 17 score. Senior QB Ricky Stanzi has completed 73% of his passes with 7 TD and 1 INT in his past three games. WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos has been his favorite target with six of those touchdowns and 24 receptions in his past five contests. Sophomore RB Adam Robinson has been superb since his 10-carry, 5-yard game at Arizona. In the three games since, Robinson has rushed for 353 yards and four touchdowns, while adding another 142 receiving yards on eight catches.

              The Hawkeyes are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings with Wisconsin. The FoxSheets give two big reasons why Iowa will win by at least a touchdown.

              Kirk Ferentz is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of IOWA. The average score was IOWA 33.5, OPPONENT 22.8 - (Rating = 6*).

              Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road win. (30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).

              The FoxSheets coaching trend favors the Over on Saturday.

              Bret Bielema is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of WISCONSIN. The average score was WISCONSIN 31.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 3*).
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #22
                Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
                10/22/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                10/21/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                10/16/10 31-33-2 48.44% -2650 Detail
                10/15/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                10/14/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                10/13/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                10/09/10 46-45-1 50.55% -1750 Detail
                10/08/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
                10/07/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                10/06/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
                10/05/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                10/02/10 31-41-1 43.06% -7050 Detail
                10/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                Totals 120-131-4 47.81% -12050

                Saturday, October 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

                Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State -6 500
                Northwestern - Under 54 500

                Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Minnesota +9.5 500
                Minnesota - Over 50 500

                Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Purdue +23.5 500
                Ohio State - Under 47 500

                Rutgers - 12:00 PM ET Rutgers +13 500
                Pittsburgh - Over 46 500

                Iowa State - 12:00 PM ET Texas -20.5 500
                Texas - Over 48 500

                Duke - 12:00 PM ET Duke +27 500
                Virginia Tech - Over 61 500

                Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET Syracuse +13.5 500
                West Virginia - Over 43 500

                Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Illinois -13.5 500
                Illinois - Over 54.5 500

                Temple - 12:00 PM ET Buffalo +7.5 500
                Buffalo - Under 47 500

                Notre Dame - 12:00 PM ET Notre Dame -7 500
                Navy - Over 49 500

                Mississippi - 12:20 PM ET Mississippi +10 500
                Arkansas - Over 58 500 TOTAL OF THE DAY

                Maryland - 1:00 PM ET Boston College -4 500
                Boston College - Over 41 500

                Ohio - 1:00 PM ET Ohio -3 500MAC PLAY OF THE DAY
                Miami (Ohio) - Over 49.5 500

                Florida Atlantic - 1:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +7.5 500
                Arkansas State - Under 54 500

                Wyoming - 2:00 PM ET Wyoming +10.5 500
                Brigham Young - Under 44.5 500

                Louisiana State - 3:30 PM ET Auburn -5.5 500SEC POD
                Auburn - Over 51.5 500

                Arizona State - 3:30 PM ET California -3 500
                California - Under 51 500

                Texas Tech - 3:30 PM ET Colorado +2.5 500
                Colorado - Over 56.5 500

                Connecticut - 3:30 PM ET Connecticut +3 500
                Louisville - Under 53.5 500

                Kent State - 3:30 PM ET Kent State -2.5 500
                Bowling Green - Over 49.5 500

                Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State +6 500
                Oklahoma State - Over 60 500

                Georgia Tech - 3:30 PM ET Georgia Tech +5 ACC DOG OF THE DAY
                Clemson - Over 52 500

                Kansas State - 3:30 PM ET Baylor -6.5 500
                Baylor - Under 56 500

                Western Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Western Michigan -7.5 500
                Akron - Over 50.5 500

                Rice - 3:30 PM ET Central Florida -22.5 500
                Central Florida - Over 52 500

                Wisconsin - 3:30 PM ET Iowa -6 500 BIG 10 POD
                Iowa - Under 47.5 500

                Houston - 3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist -8.5 500
                Southern Methodist - Over 62.5 500

                Central Michigan - 4:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -10 500 BLOWOUT OF THE DAY
                Northern Illinois - Under 54 500

                Marshall - 4:15 PM ET East Carolina -12.5 500
                East Carolina - Over 61.5 500

                UL Monroe - 4:30 PM ET UL Monroe +12 500
                Middle Tennessee St. - Over 55.5 500

                Washington State - 5:00 PM ET Stanford -35.5 500
                Stanford - Over 63.5 500

                New Mexico State - 5:00 PM ET Idaho -24.5 500
                Idaho - Over 53.5 500

                Western Kentucky - 5:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -6 500
                UL Lafayette - Under 53.5 500

                Hawaii - 5:00 PM ET Hawaii -3.5 500 WAC POD
                Utah State - Over 58.5 500

                Eastern Michigan - 6:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +24 500
                Virginia - Under 55.5 500

                Colorado State - 6:00 PM ET Colorado State +30.5 500
                Utah - Over 57 500



                Good Luck........Evening Plays Posted Later....
                Last edited by StarDust Bum; 10-23-2010, 10:48 AM.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #23
                  Thanks for all the info and good luck
                  jt4545


                  Fat Tuesday's - Home

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Evening CFB Action:

                    South Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +12 500
                    Vanderbilt - Over 45.5 500

                    Alabama-Birmingham - 7:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +20 500
                    Mississippi State - Over 52.5 500

                    Texas A&M - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -14 500
                    Kansas - Over 53.5 500

                    Alabama - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee +16.5 500
                    Tennessee - Under 47.5 500

                    Ball State - 7:00 PM ET Ball State +11.5 500
                    Toledo - Over 48 500

                    Georgia - 7:30 PM ET Georgia -4 500
                    Kentucky - Over 57 500

                    North Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Miami -6.5 500 *****
                    Miami - Over 48.5 500

                    Oklahoma - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma -3 500 *****
                    Missouri - Under 53.5 500

                    Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET San Jose State +19.5 500
                    San Jose State - Over 50.5 500

                    Air Force - 8:00 PM ET Air Force +18.5 500 *****
                    Texas Christian - Over 50.5 500 *****

                    Tulane - 9:05 PM ET Texas El Paso -10 500
                    Texas El Paso - Over 55 500

                    San Diego State - 10:00 PM ET San Diego State -24 500
                    New Mexico - Under 55 500

                    Washington - 10:15 PM ET Arizona -6.5 500 *****
                    Arizona - Under 53 500
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      No. 1 Oklahoma travels to unbeaten Missouri

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      OKLAHOMA SOONERS (6-0)
                      at MISSOURI TIGERS (6-0)

                      Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Oklahoma -3, Total: 53

                      Both teams did not show any notion of trap games last week, as they stayed unbeaten with blowout wins. Oklahoma blanked Iowa State 52-0 while Missouri won big at Texas A&M, 30-9. Sooners WR Ryan Broyles had 15 catches for 182 yards and leads the nation with 10.2 receptions per game. The Tigers are 2nd in the nation in scoring defense (10.8 PPG), outscoring their last three opponents 107 to 22.

                      Oklahoma sits atop the BCS Standings despite four of its wins coming by eight points or less (2, 3, 7 and 8). QB Landry Jones has three straight multi-touchdown games and has a total of 14 TD and just three picks this year. Broyles has 100-plus receiving yards in eight of his past nine games, dating back to last season. RB DeMarco Murray has at least 100 total yards and two scores in five of his six games this season. His 13 total touchdowns are tied for the nation lead with Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon.

                      Missouri hasn’t played a great team yet this year, so the Tigers are out to prove they belong in talks of national championship contenders. Mizzou ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (10.8 PPG) and fourth in sacks (3.33 per game). QB Blaine Gabbert started the year off slow with just five TD in his first four games, but he has five TD and zero INT in his past two contests. Gabbert threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Texas A&M.

                      Oklahoma has won seven in a row over the Tigers, but these two FoxSheets trends side with Missouri:

                      MISSOURI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was MISSOURI 33.4, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 1*).

                      OKLAHOMA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA 26.3, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 1*).

                      The FoxSheets also like the Under:

                      Play Under - Any team against the total (MISSOURI) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. (86-43 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*).
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment

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