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**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 09:16 PM

No. 1 Sooners 3-point favorites at Missouri

The Oklahoma Sooners are up against the No. 1 jinx when they visit the Missouri Tigers on Saturday night.

Bookmaker.com has Oklahoma as slim 2 ½-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 52 ½-points. Most other shops have the Sooners as three-point favorites.

Alabama was the No. 1 team in both the AP and Coaches Poll two weeks ago before a stunning 35-21 loss at South Carolina. Ohio State suffered the same fate with a 31-18 loss at Wisconsin in front of the rabid ‘Madtown’ fans. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor’s Heisman chances took a big hit in the process.

The Sooners currently rank third in the AP and Coaches Poll, but are No. 1 in the first BCS Standings. They were aided by the computers rankings, which rewarded them for a tough early slate that included Florida State, Air Force, Cincinnati and Texas.

Oklahoma (6-0 straight-up, 3-3 against the spread) came away unscathed, although there were close calls versus Air Force (27-24) and Cincinnati (31-29). The Sooners were 16 ½- and 14-point favorites respectively for those games.

Coach Bob Stoops’ team has looked better the last two weeks. It beat Texas (28-20) as three-point favorites in the Red River Rivalry game in neutral Dallas. That was a 28-10 game early in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma showed no rust from a week off last Saturday, beating Iowa State 52-0.

Oklahoma has the nation’s 12th-ranked passing offense (303 YPG) led by quarterback Landry Jones and receiver Ryan Broyles. DeMarco Murray and the rushing attack provide enough balance at 155.3 YPG (ranked 56th). All this adds up to 36 PPG (ranked 17th).

The Sooners’ defense is 71st in the nation in total yards allowed (373.5 YPG). However, their 19 PPG ranks 28th. Iowa State was the first opponent held under 365 yards (183) this year, and the defense must improve in the fourth quarter, allowing 51 total points.

Oklahoma is 0-1 ATS in true road games this year (Cincinnati). It went 1-3 SU and ATS in true road games last year.

The Tigers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) were unranked in the preseason AP Poll, but are now No. 18. They’re out of the Big 12 North and lead that division at 2-0 after Nebraska’s upset loss versus Texas.

Missouri had a pretty easy non-conference slate with McNeese State (50-6), Miami of Ohio (51-13), San Diego State (27-24) and Illinois (23-13). All were home games except for Illinois, which was a neutral site in St. Louis.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is leading the nation’s 19th-ranked passing attack (282.8 YPG). The 6-foot-5 junior struggled against the better opponents last year (Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma State), and this is a big game for his reputation.

Gabbert has five TDs and no picks in Big 12 wins over Colorado (26-0) and Texas A&M (30-9) the last two weeks. Running back Derrick Washington was kicked off the team in September after a sexual assault charge. De'Vion Moore, Henry Josey and Kendial Lawrence combine to lead a mediocre rushing attack.

The Tigers’ defense has eight returning starters and is second in the nation in points allowed (10.8 PPG). A good part of that has been the competition and Oklahoma is easily the best offense they’ve faced.

Missouri is 3-1 ATS at home this year, but went 0-4 ATS in Big 12 home games last year.

Oklahoma has won the last seven meetings (4-3 ATS) against Missouri since 1998. They last met in the 2008 Big 12 Championship game with Sam Bradford and company burying Missouri 62-21.

Missouri star defensive end Aldon Smith (leg) could return after missing three games. That would be a big boost to the ‘D.’

ABC will have the 5:00 p.m. (PT) kickoff from Faurot Field. Weather in Columbia should be warm in the upper 50s, with scattered thunderstorms possible.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 09:18 PM

Mallett's status uncertain vs. Ole Miss

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OLE MISS REBELS (3-3)
at ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (4-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:20 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to Auburn, plans to practice Tuesday in hopes of starting in Saturday’s SEC matchup with Ole Miss. Mallett, who ranks 13th in the nation with 303 YPG of total offense, was injured in the first half of the 65-43 loss at Auburn. According to head coach Bobby Petrino, Mallett has shown no post-concussion symptoms.

******* take:
Mallett is one of the best signal callers in the country, with five straight 300-yard games this year, including four 3-TD games, before getting injured. If Mallett does sit out, backup Tyler Wilson showed last week that he is very capable of running this offense. Wilson went 25-for-34 for 332 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT after replacing Mallett against the Tigers. Wilson received a significant amount of reps with the first team in the spring when Mallett was out with a broken foot, so he’s very comfortable under center.

Mallett may also be extra motivated to play against Ole Miss, which ranks 96th in the nation in passing defense (242 YPG) and has allowed 31.0 PPG this year (95th in nation). Mallett also wants to redeem himself after a sub-par performance (12-for-34, 254 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT) in a 30-17 loss at Ole Miss last year.

The Rebels have played pretty well lately, going 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) since their embarrassing home loss to Vanderbilt. The defense held Alabama to just 319 total yards (100 rushing) in the 23-10 loss last week. Offensively, Ole Miss has been very efficient running the football, averaging 216 rushing YPG (19th in nation). Junior Brandon Bolden leads the team with 92 YPG on the ground, but had just 32 rushing yards in each of his two road games this year (at Tulane, at Alabama).

Arkansas is 7-2 ATS in the past nine home games against Ole Miss. The favorite in this series is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings, with the underdog losing all 10 of those games straight up. Assuming Mallett plays, Arkansas will surely be the favorite on Saturday. This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick Arkansas on Saturday:

Petrino is 8-0 ATS at home after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 10:05 PM

Set for a Trap

Last week was all about learning in college football. The Buckeyes learned that they can’t stop a strong running game at Wisconsin. And Nebraska learned you have to do more than just run the ball after a bad home loss to the Longhorns. Those games serve to set up a trap of let downs that we can use to our betting advantage.

Badgering Down…

I was one of the few folks that thought Ohio State would handle the Badgers en route to another shot at the national championship. Boy was I wrong. Wisconsin used a steady diet of running to drop the Buckeyes 31-18 as a four-point home pup. It was the Badgers’ first win over a No. 1 team since dropping Michigan back in 1981. John Clay racked up 104 rushing yards, while James White gained 75 yards on the ground. That was the first time an Ohio State defense surrendered 100 yards to any rusher in 29 games.

Wisky doesn’t get too much time to enjoy that huge conference win with a trip to Iowa City and a date with the Hawkeyes. The betting shops aren’t expecting the Badgers to slay another heavyweight by making Iowa a 5 ½-point home “chalk.”

The Hawkeyes comes into the game after quality 38-28 win at Michigan, where they knocked Denard Robinson out of the fray. Iowa also does have the benefit of a strong defense against the run, allowing just 83.8 yards per game on the ground.

This game has the markings of a let down for the Badgers after such a big win. Head-to-head history with Iowa tells us as much. The Hawkeyes are 3-1 straight up and against the spread against Wisconsin at Kinnick Stadium. The lone loss in that stretch for Iowa was a 24-21 setback as a 1 ½-point home pup.

Utes in a Spot…

Utah has quietly moved up the rankings as teams like the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide get knocked from the group of unbeatens. While the Utes look like they are the lone option to knock down TCU, they aren’t up to that game just yet.

No, the Utes have a tough test against the Air Force next weekend. So forgive Utah if they may not be too focused on the Rams this week as a 31-point home favorite.

Kyle Whittingham’s crew has been absolutely killer for gamblers as they’ve gone 5-0-1 ATS in six contests. And you’d want to believe more of the same will happen this weekend against Colorado State.

The Utes are coming into this game off of a 30-6 win over Wyoming. While that sounds like a great win, keep in mind that Utah turned the ball over three times. Plus, bettors saw them go into hibernation in the second half of the game with one punt, two picks and a turnover on downs.

Colorado State hasn’t been the greatest team in the world. Yet they have covered the spread in four straight games. And the Rams are coming off of a 43-10 win over UNLV.

Something else to consider is that this is the biggest spread that CSU has had to deal with in its last 10 meetings against the Utes. While Utah has won its biggest spreads against the Rams (-25 ½ in 2004 and -21 in 2008), the home team has gone on to a 5-4-1 ATS mark in those 10 games. It isn’t hard to believe that Colorado State can’t stay within four touchdowns.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-19-2010, 10:06 PM

College Betting Notes

The Oregon Ducks are college football’s new number one team in the nation following Ohio State’s loss at Wisconsin last week. Oregon had the week off, but moved up the ladder to the top spot for the first time in school history. This is the second week in a row that the top ranked team has fallen, with preseason No. 1 Alabama taking the fall two weeks ago at South Carolina. Next up for the Ducks -- as they try to avoid making three straight weeks of No. 1 losing -- is a home game against UCLA this Thursday.
It’s kind of refreshing to see new blood atop the charts. Four of the top-five teams aren’t your typical college football giants like we normally see. While perennial power Oklahoma is ranked third, we have Boise State, TCU and Auburn joining Oregon. The last time we saw a fresh team ranked No. 1 for the first time ever was 20 years ago with quarterback Shawn Moore and Virginia.

The Ducks will have a tough road ahead them trying to avoid being upset in the tough Pac-10. Their six game stretch as No. 1 starts against the aforementioned Bruins, a visit to USC, Washington, at Cal, Arizona and then they close it out with a road contest against intrastate rival Oregon State.

Second ranked Boise State is set up nice for a championship game appearance as their toughest game looks to be a road contest on Nov. 26 at Nevada, a team that was just knocked out of the Top 25 with their loss last Saturday at Hawaii. Even though the BCS rankings have the Broncos third behind Oklahoma and Oregon, there appears to be a much better chance of them running the gauntlet than the other two ahead of them.

Vegas Line Moves Of the Week

If following the line moves last week, you should have done well as moves of two points or more went 9-6. There were two games that accounted for 1-1 records each as the move went down and then back up again. Pittsburgh opened as a 2 ½-point favorite and action came in on Syracuse pushing the game to pick, but then a late run came back on Pitt pushing the game to its original line. The late move was the winning side as Pitt destroyed Syracuse, 45-17.

Florida opened up as a 9 ½-point favorite and Mississippi State money came in dropping the line to -7 ½ and then the other move came late pushing the game back to it’s original line. This time the early move got there as the Bulldogs nipped the Gators 10-7 in the swamp.

Two different betting groups had different opinions on the game and each went 1-1 in those instances.

One of the largest moves of the week saw Washington being bet from the opener of +2 ½ all the way to making them the 1 ½-point favorite at home against Oregon State. Most everyone got there, but those who got there at the tail end of the move lost as Washington won by one point, 35-34, in double overtime.

Ball State was bet up a point-and-a-half from the opener to a closing number of -15 and ended up losing in overtime to Eastern Michigan. Another game the Sharps were wrong with was betting against Louisiana Tech who opened as a 2 ½-point favorite and closed as 1-point underdog. Tech beat Idaho 48-35.

Columbus Uproar

It was only hours before the Buckeyes lost to Wisconsin that callers dialing into a Columbus sports talk radio show were mapping out their vacations for the BCS Championship game and celebrating a sure Heisman trophy for quarterback Terrelle Pryor. The callers reversed their opinions in raging lunacy on-air immediately after the loss with statements like, “Pryor should have went to Michigan instead” and the “conservative play calling of coach Jim Tressel should have him sent back to Youngstown State.“ One caller was a little more optimistic and had a scenario already in place that would still place the Buckeyes in the title game. However, there weren’t any burning couches on the streets of Columbus to report as they save those special occasions for big wins.

Player of the Week

In a little over two quarters of play, USC signal caller Matt Barkley had the game of his career against Cal. At halftime, his five touchdowns led USC to a 42-0 lead en route to a 48-14 final. Barkley completed 25 of 37 passes for 357 yards.

Heisman Watch

I suppose this is about the time of the year where we can start looking seriously at legitimate candidates to win the Heisman. Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton helped himself in the running with a four-touchdown game against Arkansas, which also kept his team undefeated. Not only is Newton fourth in the nation in rushing yards, he also has a QB rating of 180.5 -- good enough for second best in the country. Michigan dual-threat QB Denard Robinson still leads college football in rushing and has a terrific passer rating of 159.09, but he’s being talked about less around the country due to two losses in a row. Robinson’s numbers should stand alone and make him the leading contender, but as is the case every year with the Heisman, it’s popularity contest. It’s about what school campaigns the best and the player that captures the voters fancy. Right now, the publicity machine is churning Newton’s name out above all others.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:12 PM

Best and worst ATS in college football

Since we are halfway through the college football season, we decided to break down ATS records of all the teams in the six BCS conferences. Below are the results:

Best ATS Records (3+ games above .500)
5-1 ATS: North Carolina, Oregon State, Oklahoma State
4-1 ATS: Iowa, West Virginia
5-2 ATS: Kentucky, Michigan State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
NORTH CAROLINA is just not getting the respect it deserves. Since losing its first two games straight up against LSU and Georgia Tech, oddsmakers have made the Tar Heels a favorite every time, but only by an average of 6.4 PPG. UNC has responded with a 17.0 PPG margin in winning four straight (SU & ATS). This week, UNC is getting 6.5 points at Miami, which bodes well for the Heels considering they are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 ACC games as an underdog.

OREGON STATE has been a team we have loved all year, and the Beavers have given us a 5-1 ATS record in return for our love. OSU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this year despite playing against some heavyweights (TCU, at Boise State, at Arizona, at Washington). Since 2006, the Beavers are 15-2 ATS in the month of October. Oregon State has a bye this week and then hosts Cal on Oct. 30.

OKLAHOMA STATE has also been a ******* favorite, with a 5-1 ATS record this year and a gaudy 12-4-1 ATS record in October over the past five seasons. OSU has been favored five times this year by an average of 12.7 PPG. The Cowboys went 4-1 ATS in those contests, outscoring opponents by an average of 24 PPG (53-29). Oklahoma State is a 6-point home underdog to Nebraska this week, which isn’t a role OSU is comfortable with. Before beating Texas Tech as a 3-point dog last week, OSU had dropped 10 straight ATS as an underdog.

VIRGINIA TECH has come a long way since its loss to James Madison in Week 2. Since that dreadful loss, VT carries the longest ATS winning streak (five) of any BCS team. The Hokies have won each of these games as a favorite rather easily, outscoring its opponents by an average margin of 21.4 PPG (206-99), which is well above the 14.2-point average spread. This week, Virginia Tech is a 26.5-point favorite over Duke despite the past two games in the series being close games and Duke ATS wins, with scores of 34-26 and 14-3.

Worst ATS Records (3+ games below .500)
1-5 ATS: Rutgers
1-4 ATS: Boston College, Penn State, South Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M
2-5 ATS: Wisconsin
RUTGERS is 4-2 SU, but has only one ATS win this year, a 3-point home win over Connecticut when the Scarlet Knights were a 5-point home underdog. Rutgers is 0-4 ATS as a favorite, winning these games by an average of 9.0 PPG despite being favored by 19.0 PPG. The Knights are a 13.5-point underdog at Pittsburgh this week, but the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.

TEXAS A&M has the longest current ATS losing streak (four) of any BCS team but is somehow favored by 13.5 points at Kansas this week. Although the road team in the A&M-Kansas series is on a five-game ATS win streak, the Aggies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games outside of College Station.

WISCONSIN is 6-1 SU but has already lost five times ATS this year. This week, the Badgers travel to Iowa where they are a 5.5-point underdog. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) in its past six road games and is also 1-7 ATS (2-6 SU) in its past eight games against the Hawkeyes.

For those of you who like playing on (or against) streaks, here are the longest current ATS winning streaks and losing streaks:

ATS Current Winning Streaks
5 Virginia Tech
4 Michigan State
4 North Carolina
4 Oklahoma State
4 Oregon State
4 West Virginia

ATS Current Losing Streaks
4 Texas A&M
3 Arizona
3 Florida
3 Michigan
3 Northwestern
3 Penn State
3 Virginia

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:13 PM

ND's Floyd could miss game vs. Navy

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NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (4-3)
vs. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (4-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Notre Dame -7, Total: 51

Notre Dame might be traveling to East Rutherford, NJ for a visit with Navy without its top three receivers on Saturday. WR Michael Floyd is a game-time decision with a bad hamstring, while WR Theo Riddick has already been ruled out because of his severely sprained ankle. TE Kyle Rudolph’s season ended last week because of a hamstring injury.

******* take:
These are enormous losses for Dayne Crist and the Irish. Floyd (44 rec., 624 yds, 6 TD), Riddick (38-406-3) and Rudolph (28-328-3) have combined for 68 percent of the receiving yards and 12 of the 15 receiving touchdowns. Navy has an excellent pass defense (160 YPG, ninth-best among FBS school) despite having just 1.3 sacks per game. Irish RB Armando Allen (448 rush yds, 4.7 YPC) will be counted on to have a huge day, but he won’t be 100 percent because of a hip flexor injury. Notre Dame is 18th in the nation in passing yardage, but ranks a woeful 97th with 113 rushing YPG.

Notre Dame also has to worry about Navy QB Ricky Dobbs who rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown in last year’s 23-21 win in South Bend. Dobbs hasn’t had nearly the same success as he did last season (1,203 rush yds and 1,031 pass yds, 33 TD), but he still has 379 rushing yards and five touchdowns in six games. The Midshipmen rank ninth in the country in rushing offense (259 YPG).

The Irish are riding a three-game winning streak with wins over BC, Pitt and Western Michigan. But for the Notre Dame-Navy series, the Midshipmen are 12-5 ATS since 1992. These FoxSheets trends give two more reasons to pick Navy on Saturday’s neutral-field matchup at the New Meadowlands:

NOTRE DAME is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 30.8, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 3*).

NAVY is 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992. The average score was NAVY 30.0, OPPONENT 23.0 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:17 PM

Games to Watch - Week 8

It looks like nobody wants to be at the top of the college football rankings after the Buckeyes fell flat in Madison against the Badgers. Will that No. 1 ranking be poison to the teams both afforded that spot this week? We’ll look at both of them as some of our better games to watch in Week 8.

Thursday - UCLA at Oregon (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. EDT)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

at
UCLA is used to facing No. 1 teams in Pac-10 play, but it's normally the cross-town Trojans in that role. Oregon finds itself as the No. 1 team both the AP and USA Today Polls for the first time in school history. And they did it on a week when they didn't play a game. Don't kid yourself into thinking they backed themselves into the role as the Ducks have a stellar offensive attack. Oregon is scoring 54.3 points per game right now. They're doing that in large part to LaMichael James anchoring the Ducks' running game with a nation's best 169.6 yards per game on the ground this season. Darron Thomas has handled the QB duties just fine as he's helped the Quack Attack gain 567.0 YPG on offense to lead the NCAA. The Bruins were braced for the worst this year when Rick Neuheisel told fans that this was going to be a bad campaign. Yet you have to believe they're doing alright at 3-3. UCLA is doing its damage this year with a running game that has found itself, ranking 13th offensively with 223.0 YPG on the ground. Now can they pull off that kind of number on Oregon, who is giving up 126.5 rushing YPG. The early numbers have the Ducks as 21.5-point home favorites, which shouldn't surprise many considering they've been 36-point faves during the season. Yet the Bruins have gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last three head-to-head battles. If we're looking at playing on Thursdays, then Oregon would be a fade as they failed to cover last year against the Beavers as a 10-point home favorite. Before bettors jump on the Bruins to cover the big spread, remember that they are 0-4 SU and just 1-3 ATS in games as road pups against Pac-10 foes after back-to-back ATS losses.

Saturday - LSU at Auburn (3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

at
Few people would have guessed that the battle of Tigers would have the pole position in the SEC West hanging in the balance, but that's what is going on at Jordan-Hare Stadium. LSU finds themselves unbeaten despite some questionable moments in Les Miles' thought process. The Bayou Bengals aren't doing much to wow people on offense with 328.6 YPG on offense. But you don't have to be stellar on the attack if you have a defense that is giving up just 242.1 YPG to rank 3rd nationally like LSU. Auburn is coming off of the highest scoring game in SEC history with its 65-43 triumph over the Razorbacks. Look no further than Cam Newton for the Tigers' success as he's pulling in 305.4 YPG in total offense. That ability from Newton has helped Auburn to improve in its red zone offense, ranking 18th nationally 34 scores in 38 drives inside the 20-yard line. Auburn comes into this game as a six-point home "chalk." While the spin is totally on the side of War Eagle, it's LSU that holds the advantage. Those Bayou Bengals have gone 4-1 SU, but 2-3 ATS in the last five meetings. However, Les Miles' club has covered the number in two straight meetings. Plus, LSU has shown to be a tough out in recent times as they are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS when playing as a road pup in SEC contests. Auburn, however, has gone 3-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite in games coming off of two straight 'over' wins. Incidentally, the 'over' is 3-0 in that stretch as well.

Saturday - Oklahoma at Missouri (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

vs.
Oregon might be the No. 1 team in the human polls, but the Sooners take the top spot in the BCS rankings. Oklahoma needed a little in terms of style points this week against the Cyclones. Well, they got just what they wanted as OU drilled Iowa State 52-0. They racked up 672 yards on offense, while giving up just 183 yards. While everyone is paying attention to those guys from Norman, the Tigers are rolling right along in the Big XII North. Missouri has gone 6-0 SU (3-2 ATS) this year with little to no publicity. Blaine Gabbert has guided the Tigers to their strong start with a passing game that is averaging 282.3 YPG through the air. But Mizzou has also been brutal on defense this season, evidenced by a unit allowing 328.7 YPG in 2010. The Tigers' defense has been opportunistic with 14 takeaways this season. Plus, they have given up just 9 points in two conference matches. Most betting shops have made the Sooners three-point road favorites for this game. Hard to argue with that logic as Oklahoma has won seven straight games in this series, with Missouri covering the spread in three of those tests. That includes two straight Big XII Title Game battles that were all Sooners. Mizzou will have to shake off some bad vibes in this game as they've gone 1-4 SU and ATS as a home pup in conference matchups since 2001. If you search for the Tigers as home underdogs after watching the 'under' cash in two straight games, you'll see that they're 0-3 SU and ATS. The Sooners aren't a gimme in this spot either for our purposes with a 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS mark in games as road favorites after back-to-back ATS Wins. The 'under' has gone on a 4-1 run in that stretch as well.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

at
Nebraska found out the hard way that they couldn't just run at will over the Longhorns. This game isn't a "gimme" either with the Cowboys owning a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record in the last five meetings of this series. Will the Cornhuskers' defense be able to hold down what has been a fairly impressive Oklahoma State offense.

at
The Tar Heels have done a lot without many of their best defensive players. Miami still can't decided if it is a good team or just a middle-of-the-pack group. We'll find out more about the Hurricanes at home this weekend in what can be considered an elimination game for the ACC Coastal Division.

vs.
This series has been a true dogfight with the Midshipmen taking two in a row in South Bend. The focus for this storied rivalry now goes to Meadowlands Stadium in New Jersey. Notre Dame has done well enough against the run in Brian Kelly's first year. Can they handle Navy's option attack?

at
The Horned Frogs are still well in the hunt for the national championship. Now they get their first real conference threat in the Air Force Academy. The Falcons might be coming off of a loss at San Diego State, but this is a team that has proven to be a tough out all year long. The Air Force has covered two of the last three games against TCU, including last year's 20-17 setback in Colorado Springs. Could the Zoomies knock TCU off of its lofty perch?

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:19 PM

Trends to Watch - Week 8

UCLA at OREGON (Thursday, October 21)... Bruins didn’t do it vs. Ducks LY in 24-10 home loss but have actually covered 3 of last 5 in series. Neuheisel, however, just 5-11 his last 16 as dog. Ducks 3-0 vs. line at home TY and 9-2 vs. number last 11 as host. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI (Friday, October 22)... Skip Holtz now 0-2 as dog at USF but is 23-11 in role since ‘05 (counting ECU days). Cincy has won last 4 and covered last 6 in series, and Butch Jones working on 3-game cover streak. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at Meadowlands)...Brian Kelly only 8-10-3 his last 21 on line at Cincy & ND. The team wearing the white uniforms has covered the last seven in series (always a neutral game when Navy hosts, which Mids haven’t covered since ‘02 vs. ND). Irish, however, just 2-9-3 last 14 as chalk. Navy 9-4 its last 10 as a dog for Niumatalolo and 30-17 as dog away from Annapolis since 2000. Tech edge-Navy, based on team trends.

UCONN at LOUISVILLE...Cards have lost and failed to cover last 3 vs. Edsall, although UL 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Huskies 0-3 vs. line away from home TY after covering previous 8 away from Rentsch. Tech edge-slight to UL, based on recent trends.

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer on another of his patented rolls with 5 straight wins and covers. Cutcliffe, however, is 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 on road (road team 14-4 last 18 Blue Devil games on board), and Duke has covered last 2 meetings. Beamer 8-3 laying DD since LY. Tech edge-VT, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Butch has won and covered last 3 years vs. Shannon, and Heels are 5-1 vs. line TY. Butch 2-0 as dog TY and 13-5 in role since arriving at Chapel Hill in ‘07. Shannon 5-13 vs. line as home chalk vs. FBS foes since taking over Canes ion ‘07. Tech edge-UNC, based on series and team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Paul Johnson 3-0 SU vs. Dabo since ’08, including wild ACC title game win LY. If GT getting points note Paul Johnson 6-2 as dog since ’08. GT also 11-5 vs. line away since Johnson arrived in ’08. If Dabo a dog note 0-3 mark in role at home since he took over Tigers in mid ’08. Tech edge-GT, based on team and recent series trends.

MARYLAND at BOSTON COLLEGE...Home team has covered last 4 meetings in series, though BC just 1-9 vs. line last 10 on board. Ralph has covered 5 of last 7 on board since late LY. Tech edge-Ralph, based on recent BC spread woes.

MARSHALL at EAST CAROLINA...Herd not exactly rallying for Doc, no covers last 4 or 5 of 6 TY. Herd also 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY. Ruffin McNeill 3-0 SU and vs. line at home in 2010. Tech edge-ECU, based on recent Herd negatives.

TEMPLE at BUFFALO...Al "Touch of" Golden looking to begin another spread streak. Temple 11-6 vs. line away since ’08 (2-1 TY) and 4-1 as road chalk since LY. Bulls 1-6 vs. line last 7 as host vs. FBS foes. Owls have covered last 2 meetings as well. Tech edge-Temple, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at IOWA...Ferentz has won SU last 2 and covered last 3 vs. Wisconsin, and Iowa also 7-1 vs. number last 8 in series. Hawkeyes 3-0 SU and vs. line against FBS foes at Iowa City TY. Bielema only 5-9 as dog since ’07 and 3-7 as road dog that span. Tech edge-Iowa, based on team and series trends.

PENN STATE at MINNESOTA...Shades no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 TY. Shades also 0-2 SU and vs. line away TY, losing by same 24-3 count at Bama and Iowa. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent Shades woes.

PURDUE at OHIO STATE...Revenge for Buckeyes after 26-18 loss LY at Ross-Ade. Tressel has covered last 7 in revenge role. Last 6 in series "under" and Purdue has covered 5 of those 6, although teams haven’t played every year (missed ‘05-06). Tressel 5-0 vs. line at Big Horseshoe TYand 9-4 vs. points after last 13 losses. Tech edge-OSU, based on Tressel trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Spartans 5-2 as visiting chalk since ‘07 and did win and cover handily at NU in 2008, but otherwise Cats have held upper hand vs. spread in series, covering 5 of last 6. Cats just 1-7 vs. line at Evanston vs. FBS foes since ‘09 but Fitzgerald is 18-8 his last 26 as dog (6-4 last 10 as Evanston dog). Tech edge-NU, based on series trends.

RUTGERS at PITT...Note road team has covered last 4 meetings. ’Stache just 6-11 his last 17 as Heinz Field chalk (4-4 since LY). Schiano 5-1 as road dog since ‘07 and 12-2 in role since ‘05. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on series road and team trends.

SYRACUSE at WEST VIRGINIA...Bill Stewart starting to cover some games as chalk, now 3 in a row TY after USF win. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on recent trends.

INDIANA at ILLINOIS...Zook 0-6 as chalk vs. FBS foes since LY (0-5 at home in role since ‘09) and 5-12 in role at Champaign-Urbana since ‘05. Note that Hoosiers were humiliated 55-13 by Zook when last visiting Memorial Stadium in ’08. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS...Teams haven’t met since ’07. Mack just 2-7 last 9 on board, also 2-6 last 8 at Austin. Mack also just 6-11 his last 17 as chalk. Tech edge-ISU, based on recent Mack woes.

SOUTH CAROLINA at VANDERBILT...Vandy has covered last 3 meetings, winning 2 of those SU. Spurrier just 1-4 as visiting chalk since ‘07. Dores, however, no covers last 6 as SEC host and just 6-13 last 19 in role. Tech edge-SC, based on recent Vandy home SEC woes.

OLE MISS at ARKANSAS...Hogs had covered 5 straight vs. Rebs prior to LY’s 30-17 Ole Miss win at Oxford. Rebs have covered their last 8 as road dog but have not covered their last 4 trips to Fayetteville. Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on team trends.

OHIO at MIAMI-OHIO...Solich has won and covered last 4 in series. Solich has covered his last 4 TY and is 8-4 vs. line last 12 away from home. Tech edge-Ohio, based on series and team trends.

WYOMING at BYU...BYU has owned Wyo lately with wins and covers in last 6, including wipeout wins last 2 years by 96-0 combined, and last 4 wins by 25 or more. But Cougs just 3-9 last 12 at Provo (2-1 TY) and 1-7 last 8 as home chalk. Note Cowboys 8-2 vs. line away under Christensen, all as dog. Tech edge-slight to Wyo, based on recent trends.

KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Bill Snyder has covered his last 4 away from home since LY. Road team is 6-1 vs. line last 7 K-State games on board (neutral field vs. ISU). Tech edge-K-State, based on team trends.

TEXAS A&M at KANSAS...Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Turner Gill has taken some beatings TY and is just 2-4 vs. line, KU now 3-12 last 15 on board since early ‘09. Turner Gill teams now 6-11 their last 17 on board. KU 2-7 as dog since LY. But Ags only 1-9 vs. number last 10 away from Kyle Field. Tech edge-A&M, based on recent trends.

UAB at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen 3-0 as chalk vs. FBS foes TY. UAB just 3-7 vs. line its last 10 away from Legion Field. Tech edge-MSU, based on recent trends.

HOUSTON at SMU...Sumlin just 3-9 vs. number last 12 as visitor. SMU only 1-2 as home chalk TY and 1-10 as chalk at Ford Stadium since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at BOWLING GREEN...Dog team is 4-1-1 vs. line last 6 meetings. Flashes just 6-12 as chalk since ‘05. Falcs had covered 12 of 16 as dog prior to failures in two of last three as short. Tech edge-slight to BGSU, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON...Teams haven’t met since ‘07. WMU a bit bipolar lately. Broncos had dropped 15 of previous 22 spread decisions away from Waldo prior to Ball State explosion. A lot of good the new stadium has done Akron, now 1-7 vs. number as host since the new home park opened LY and 1-8 vs. line last 9 at home dating to latest Rubber Bowl days of ’08. Zips 5-16 last 21 on board. Tech edge-WMU, based on Zip home woes.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Chips no wins or covers their last 3 in 2010 but CMU has won and covered the last 3 meetings vs. NIU. But Huskies have covered their last 5 TY and now 5-2 at DeKalb chalk against FBS since ‘09, reversing previous poor numbers in role. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA at MISSOURI...Teams didn’t meet LY but Mizzou really took it on chin from OU in Big XII title games in ‘07 & ‘08, losing and failing to cover both while beaten a combined 100-38. Tigers just 4-6 as dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on series trends.

NEBRASKA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Teams haven’t met since ’07, at which point OSU had won and covered two straight vs. Bill Callhan. Bo Pelini 2-0 vs. line away TY and 8-2 vs. spread last 10 away from Lincoln. Mike Gundy 1-4 last 5 as Stillwater dog). Tech edge-Nebraska, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...This was a bitter loss for Cats at Seattle LY. Stoops no covers last 2 at Tucson after 15-4 mark previous 19 vs. number at home. UW 1-1 as road dog TY and 3-4 in role for Sarkisian since LY, but just 4-11 in role dating back to ‘07 and Ty’s days. Last three also "over" in series. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at CAL...Home team has covered last 4 meetings, and Tedford 3-0 SU and vs. line hosting Sun Devils since ‘04. Note last three "under" in series as well. Erickson, however, has covered last 4 TY (all as dog) including three straight away from Tempe. Tech edge-ASU, based on recent trends.

ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...Nick Saban no covers last 2 on road TY although he is still 6–3 vs. spread away from Tuscaloosa since LY. Tide has won last 5 SU vs. Vols but its three game cover streak vs. UT was snapped LY. Tide has covered last 4 at Knoxville. Tech edge-Bama, based on team and series trends.

LSU at AUBURN...The most exciting teams in college FB this year! LSU has won last 3 meetings and covered last 2; Auburn had covered 3 straight from ‘05-07. Les Miles 4-2 as road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...Ags have dropped last 2 and 7 of last 8 spread decisions vs. Vandals. Akey 2-0 as home chalk TY. Tech edge-Idaho, based on series and team trends.

HAWAII at UTAH STATE...Teams have split the past two years with home side winning and covering each. UH, however, now 9-4 vs. line its last 13 on mainland. Tech edge-slight to USU, based on series home trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD...Harbaugh merciless the last two years on Wazzu, big wins and covers by 98-13 total score. Tree 12-3 vs. line last 15 vs. FBS on Farm. Cougs looking scrappy, however, covering last 2 on road and 4 of last 5 overall. Tech edge-slight to Tree, based on recent trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at VIRGINIA...Despite Ball St. upset, note EMU only 7-12 vs. line under Ron English. Mike London 2-0 as home chalk TY. Tech edge-Virginia, based on EMU negatives.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY...Dawgs were upset at home by the Cats LY and have failed to cover last 2 vs. UK. Richt has also failed to cover last two trips to Lexington. Richt 0-3 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to UK, based on recent Dawg road woes.

RICE at UCF...O’Leary rolled 49-7 LY. Owls just 1-4 vs. spread last 5 on CUSA road. O’Leary has covered last 4 and 5 of 6 to start ‘10, and is 9-2 his last 11 as chalk. Tech edge-UCF, based on recent trends.

BALL STATE at TOLEDO...This was a last second thrilling win for Toledo LY, breaking Ball’s recent dominance of 3 straight wins and 4 straight covers in series. Stan Parrish now 7-2 vs. line away for Cardinals since LY (7-1 as road dog). Rockets 0-2 vs. line at Glass Bowl TY. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS TECH at COLORADO...Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Interestingly, Dan Hawkins punished Leach in ‘06 and ‘07, and Buffs have covered last 4 meetings (although those four games spaced since 2002). Tech edge-Colorado, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...FSU has covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Pat Hill 5-1 last 6 as road chalk. Spartans 1-9 vs. line last 10 at home and 3-19 last 22 on board. Tech edge-Fresno, based on series and team trends.

AIR FORCE at TCU...Note that home team has covered last 4 meetings, and TCU has really whipped Falcs last 2 at Fort Worth. Frogs 22-7 vs. number at Amon Carter Stadium since ‘05 and 14-4 last 17 as DD chalk. Tech edge-TCU, based on series home and team trends.

TULANE at UTEP...Wave has gotten physical with UTEP, covering last 3 meetings. Mike Price has covered his last two as Sun Bowl chalk TY but still just 7-13 in role since ‘05, and 10-24 last 34 as chalk since late ‘04. Bob Toledo, however, just 1-6-1 last 8 as CUSA road dog. Tech edge-slight to UTEP, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Rocky Long used to own Aztecs when he coached Lobos, who have won and covered last 4 hosting SDSU (all of those under Rocky). SDSU 1-8 SU and vs. line last 9 in series, and Aztecs 1-5 as road chalk since ‘05 (1-1 TY). Locksley, however, 1-4 vs. line TY and 2-7 vs. spread as host since ‘09. Tech edge-SDSU, based on recent trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UL-LAFAYETTE...Bustle 3-2 as chalk since LY and extended marks in role are good (10-3 since ‘07). Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on Bustle’s chalk marks.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at ARKANSAS STATE...Red Wolves 1-1 vs. line at Jonesboro TY but just 6-10 vs. line as host since ‘07. ASU did cover first 2 tries as chalk TY after 1-6 mark in role the seven previous tries. Howard no covers last 3 TY and just 6-11 last 17 on board since LY. Tech edge-slight to FAU, based on etended ASU negatives.

UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Road team 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series. Blue Raiders 0-3 vs. line at Jonny Floyd Stadium TY after 6-1 spread mark previous 7 as host. Tech edge-slight to MTSU, based on extended home mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 06:23 PM

Study Hall - Week 8

Perhaps nobody wants to be No. 1 in the nation right now. Alabama held onto it for a while before succumbing to the Gamecocks. And Ohio State last just one week in that role before losing on the road to the Badgers. Now we have two separate top teams thanks to the polls and the nonsensical BCS in Oregon and Oklahoma.

So how are the gamblers going to be handling this pair of teams with the No. 1 ranking? Well, it doesn’t seem to be affecting the public too much on one side of the aisle. One look at our big line movers from Jay Kornegay and the Las Vegas Hilton is proof positive.

Saturday's Big Movers
Matchup Opening Line Current Line
Iowa St at Texas (-20) (-21)
UCLA at Oregon (-22) (-24)
Washington at Arizona (+7.5) (+6.5)
Texas Tech at Colorado (-1) (-2.5)
FAU at Arkansas St. (-6.5) (-8.5)

The Ducks getting pushed up to 24-point favorites makes sense considering UCLA is still a year away from doing something more in the Pac-10. Although, that win against Texas makes me wonder if the Bruins have a little something special in store for Oregon.

As for the rest of the bigger movers on the list, there isn’t much to argue on a couple of them. The Red Raiders are a better team than Colorado: same goes for Texas against the Cyclones. Although I will say that it is a bit of surprise to see the public siding with the Huskies against Arizona. Arkansas State is no doubt getting some attention after its close battle with the Hoosiers to be pushed up to an 8 ½-point home favorite against Florida Atlantic.

One game that I was surprised to see not on that list was the BCS No. 1 Sooners taking on Missouri in Columbia. According to Sportsbook.com, Oklahoma is getting 94% of the money to cover the number in this game. Despite that fact, OU is still just a 3 ½-point road “chalk.”

Oklahoma has one of the nation’s best rushers in DeMarco Murray. All the senior running back has done this season is rack up 110.5 yards per game on the ground with 11 touchdowns. You can’t just focus on Murray though as Landry Jones will make you pay with his arm. Jones has used last season’s crash course to his advantage by connecting on 67% of his passes for 1,791 yards and 14 scores.

As stacked as the Sooners are, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Scott Pritchard lets us know we can’t forget about Mizzou. “You must respect Tigers with QB Blaine Gabbert throwing 10 TD passes and only three interceptions. Plus, his favorite target WR T.J. Moe has hauled in 50 catches averaging over eleven and a half yards per reception.”

One thing that the Tigers aren’t getting a lot of respect for is a defense that has stood strong in 2010. Missouri brought back eight starters on its crew of stoppers. All they have done is rank in the Top 30 nationally in run defense (117.2 YPG) and Top 60 against the pass (211.5 YPG). While those are decent numbers, what really stands out is that they have given up just 10.8 points per game to rank just behind TCU nationally as the stingiest scoring defense.

Some gamblers aren’t so much impressed with stats as they are with past history. For those of you that prefer watching “Ice Road Truckers” or whatever nonsense reality show is on the History Channel at the moment, then you’re going to be siding with the Sooners. Oklahoma has won seven straight games against the Tigers, covering the number in just four of those meetings. The last two times they’ve met was in the Big XII Title Game and Mizzou was utterly embarrassed by a combined score of 100-38.

As great as that information is, the Sooners still have to realize this: the last two teams that were No. 1 lost on the road outright in as many weeks. How much has Bob Stoops done to drill that into his team’s minds?

Speaking of drilling, Wisconsin was a team that successfully drilled home that they could run at will against the Buckeyes last weekend for a 31-18 win as a four-point home ‘dog. John Clay and James White combined for 179 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

The Badgers can’t get fat off of that win for too long as they’re set for another big league showdown. Now they head to Iowa City to face off with the Hawkeyes for the Heartland Trophy.

Most of the betting shops out and about have posted Iowa as a 5 ½-point home favorite in this contest. And VegasInsider.com’s expert ‘capper Tom Freese has believes that Kinnick Stadium is all the advantage the Hawks will need.

“Both of these teams have great running games and defenses that can stop opposing attacks. Yet Iowa is an awfully tough team to beat at home.”

Freese is right on the Hawkeyes and loving the home crowd. Iowa has gone 14-2 SU at home dating back to the start of the 2008 campaign. Gamblers, however, have been on a see-saw when backing them with an 8-8 ATS mark. Those two losses, by the way, both came to Northwestern. If we’re tightening that info up to just Big Ten games, then the Hawkeyes are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six in this spot.

Regardless of the issue of covering the spread, Iowa still has a damn good team. Ricky Stanzi is the third-most efficient quarterback in the country, completing 68% of his throws and posting a rating of 180.49. Should the Badgers be able to contain Stanzi’s passing attack, that’ll just give Adam Robinson a chance to shine in a big spot. All he’s done is average 103.8 YPG on the ground with eight touchdowns.

When looking at past battles, you’d have to notice that the Hawkeyes have gone 6-4 SU against Wisky. But for our purposes, Iowa has been the smart play nearly every time, evidenced by an 8-2 ATS record. Plus, the Badgers are just 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS as road underdogs the last five years against Big Ten foes.

While the Badgers are trying to avoid a let down this weekend, Nebraska will be doing the same but from a different angle. The Cornhuskers wanted that revenge last weekend at home against Texas badly. Instead, the Longhorns shut down the option offense and dumped the Huskers 20-13 as 10-point road pups.

So the ‘Huskers have to pick up the pieces this week on the road against an unbeaten Oklahoma State squad as 5 ½-point favorites.

Despite the loss, Nebraska still has a formidable running attack with Taylor Martinez under center. The redshirt freshman has guided them to 301.2 YPG on the ground this year, with Martinez representing 126.33 YPG of that total.

The Cowboys might be known for their ability to throw the ball with wild abandon (361.0 YPG, 3rd in FBS). But this is a team that has been awfully tenacious in stopping the run, surrendering just 124.5 YPG to the opposition.

So what is going to be the major influence on how this game goes? According to VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Jason Johnson, ability will go a long way in Stillwater. “Oklahoma State has the advantage of playing this game on its home turf. Unfortunately for them, they don't have the advantage in the talent department. But as Nebraska learned last week, the best team doesn't always win on Saturday. And the outcome of this game is going to depend on the Cornhuskers’ attitude when they get off the bus in Stillwater. If the Huskers rally around last week’s loss, they should get the win Saturday. That's a big ‘if.’"

We can look at more for fading OSU in this game, like quality of wins. The Cowpokes’ best win of the year was a 38-35 thriller at home against Texas A&M (I don’t think much of Tommy Tuberville’s Red Raiders to make that a good win). And the Aggies are mired three-game slide. Nebraska comes into this game with roughly the same pedigree, but does have a decent road win over the Huskies back in September.

Oklahoma State also has a nasty little run going against them in that they are 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games as a home pup to Big XII opponents.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 07:17 PM

Arizona 6½-point favorite with backup QB

Nick Foles (knee) won’t be under center for the Wildcats versus the Huskies.
Washington QB Jake Locker is getting back to the form that made him a preseason Heisman favorite. Arizona just wishes they had their quarterback.

When the No. 15 Wildcats (5-1, 2-1) welcome the Huskies (3-3, 2-1) to Tucson this Saturday for a 7:15 p.m. PT tilt, they will have to make due with backup Matt Scott under center instead of starter Nick Foles. Even with the injury, Easy Street Sports has Arizona as a 6½-point favorite and a 'total' of 54.

Scott, a junior, is known more for his legs than his arm, but isn't entirely untested. He played the '1B' role with Foles to start the 2009 season and played relatively well before Wildcats head coach Mike Stoops installed Foles as the full-time starter in Week 4.

However, Arizona's offensive woes – The Wildcats have scored only 61 points in their last three games – haven't been because of who is under center. The 'Cats have completely abandoned their running game – they were fifth in the Pac-10 in 2009 and were off to a wonderful start after two weeks before going in the tank – and even Foles couldn't bail them out against Oregon State. If they are to beat Washington, Stoops and Co. need to return to what got them to the '09 Holiday Bowl: a steady diet of halfbacks Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin.

This is especially true against the Huskies who have been unimpressive on defense and were absolutely humiliated by Nebraska, allowing 383 yards on the ground. Washington didn't fare much better against USC or Oregon State.

Luckily for the Huskies, Locker is back to first-round pick status and was unstoppable in the wild win versus the Beavers.

He'll need to be extra special to overcome some lopsided ATS trends. Washington is 3-9 in its last 12 on the road and 9-19 ATS in the last 28. Arizona, meanwhile, is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 in Tuscon.

The situational trends favor Washington, though, with the 'dog' covering 11-of-12 and the road team coming through 10-of-13 times.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-20-2010, 07:18 PM

LSU and Auburn in SEC betting battle

Who’s the best dual-threat quarterback in college football? It very well could be Auburn’s Cameron Newton.

Newton and the fifth-ranked Tigers face a huge test as they host No. 6 LSU Saturday at 12:30 p.m. (PT).

Both teams are 7-0 as they battle for first place in the SEC Western Division. The winner will be the lone unbeaten SEC school. LSU last opened 7-0 in 1973.

Auburn is a six-point favorite with the college football betting total at 52. LSU is 4-2 ATS under Les Miles when taking points on the road. The Tigers are 13-5-1 ATS as a ‘dog of between 3 ½ and 10 points. Auburn is 2-6 ATS when favored in the 3 ½-to-10-point range.

LSU has won the last three in the series, including 31-10 last year as 7 ½-point home favorites. The combined 41 points went ‘under’ the 49 ½-point total.

Auburn has a great offense ranking sixth in the nation in scoring and ninth in total offense.

LSU’s strength is defense where the Tigers rate No. 1 in the SEC in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 14.4 points per game.

Nationally, the Tigers are third in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The Tigers are holding foes to an average of only 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. LSU may have the best cornerback in college in Patrick Peterson.

LSU, though, hasn’t gone against a quarterback the caliber of Newton, who not only tops the SEC in rushing with 860 yards but also is No. 1 in the conference in passing efficiency.

Newton has accounted for 25 touchdowns rushing and passing. Thanks to Newton and his experienced offensive line, Auburn is No. 1 in the SEC in total offense (481.1 yards per game) and scoring (40.7 points per contest). Darvin Adams is Auburn’s leading receiver with 23 receptions for 419 yards.

Newton accounted for four touchdowns while rushing for 188 yards and throwing for another 140 in the Tigers’ 65-43 victory last Saturday against Arkansas as 3 1/2 –point home favorites. The combined 108 points flew ‘over’ the 59 ½-point total.

Auburn set a school mark for points in a conference game, yet was outgained by Arkansas, 566-470. Auburn is 1-6 ATS after covering the spread in its previous game.

LSU had only two touchdowns and led by just six last week against McNeese State, a non-‘board’ team, before breaking out late in the third quarter to win, 32-10, as 41 ½-point home favorites. The combined 42 points went ‘under’ the 55-point total.

LSU, which alternates Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee at quarterback, ranks 92nd in the country in total offense. The Tigers are 70th in scoring averaging 26.7 points per contest. Jefferson and Lee have each thrown two touchdown passes, while having a combined eight throws picked off.

Jefferson threw for a career-high 242 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in last year’s win over Auburn. The Tigers scored their only touchdown with only three seconds left to make the final slightly more respectable.

Steven Ridley leads LSU in rushing running for 687 yards and scoring six touchdowns.

Auburn ranks 63rd in total defense. The Tigers are yielding an average of 24 points per game, 66 percent completions and have given up 13 touchdown passes.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of Auburn’s last six games. The ‘under’ also has cashed in eight of the past 10 meetings between LSU and Auburn.

The home team is 9-1 in the series, 6-3-1 ATS.

The early weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 70s and a slight wind.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 05:14 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/16/10 31-33-2 48.44% -2650 Detail
10/15/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/14/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
10/13/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/09/10 46-45-1 50.55% -1750 Detail
10/08/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
10/07/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/06/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/02/10 31-41-1 43.06% -7050 Detail
10/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
Totals 119-128-4 48.18% -10900

Thursday, October 21Game Score Status Pick Amount

UCLA - 9:00 PM ET UCLA +26 500
Oregon - Under 60 500

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 05:17 PM

Oregon favored by 24 over UCLA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCLA BRUINS (3-3)
at OREGON DUCKS (6-0)

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Oregon -24, Total: 61.5

Oregon will play its first-ever game as the top-ranked team in the polls when it hosts UCLA on Thursday night. The Ducks lead the nation with 54.3 PPG and have won five of their games by 20-plus points. The bye week was key for QB Darron Thomas (shoulder) to heal, but RB Kenjon Barner (concussion) is not expected to play on Thursday. UCLA is also coming off a bye after a 26-carry, 26-yard rushing performance in a 35-7 loss at Cal.

UCLA QB Kevin Prince is banged up with a knee injury, and his status is uncertain for Thursday. He was dreadful against Cal, completing just 42 percent of his passes (13-for-31) for 99 yards. His backup is Richard Brehaut who has zero touchdowns, two interceptions and 10 sacks in his two-year career (55 pass attempts). The quarterback at UCLA is not vital to the Bruins success since they run the ball so effectively. Johnathan Franklin is averaging 113 rushing YPG in leading UCLA to the 13th-best rushing attack in the nation (223 rush YPG), which includes the woeful output against Cal.

Oregon leads the country in total offense, averaging 567 yards per game. RB LaMichael James tops the nation with 170 rushing YPG, and he ran for 152 yards in a 24-10 win at UCLA last year. Thomas has had a great sophomore season, throwing at least two TD in his first five games before getting hurt in game number six against Washington State. Thomas is also second on the team in rushing, including a 117-yard performance against Stanford two games ago. If Thomas does have problems with his shoulder, backup QB Nate Costa is certainly capable of filling in. Costa threw just two incomplete passes against WSU, totaling 151 passing yards and 84 rushing yards. Barner is not only James’ backup, averaging 6.5 YPC, but he also returns kicks and is a quality receiver out of the backfield.

Favorites of 20-plus points ona six-game in-season win streak are 33-15 ATS (69%) since 2005. Oregon knows how to win big considering it is 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 20-plus points since 2007. The Bruins are 2-11 SU (5-8 ATS) in their past 13 road games in Pac-10 play. These FoxSheets trends give three more reasons to like Oregon Thursday night:

Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (40-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (OREGON) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game. (32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).

OREGON is 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The average score was OREGON 38.2, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also show this four-star trend in favor of the Under:

Play Under - Any team against the total (UCLA) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. (29-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-21-2010, 05:29 PM

UNC travels to Miami without leading receiver

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (4-2)
at MIAMI HURRICANES (4-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 48

The underappreciated Tar Heels have quietly run off four straight wins, both SU and ATS, as they travel to Miami for a Saturday night game. UNC will be short-handed as TE Zack Pianalto was lost for the season after fracturing his right fibula in last week’s game against Virginia.

******* take:
Pianalto leads the Tar Heels in receptions (30) and receiving yards (311), so this is not a minor injury. But senior QB T.J. Yates still has four other receivers with 12 or more catches and at least 200 receiving yards this year. Yates’ ability to spread the football around has resulted in 11 TD and just one INT this year. After starting the season 0-2, UNC is starting to find its groove. In the past three games, UNC has a +7 turnover margin and scoring margin of 21.3 PPG.

Miami bounced back from its embarrassing 45-17 home loss to FSU to beat Duke 28-13 last week, thanks to seven Blue Devils turnovers. Miami QB Jacory Harris snapped a four-game interception streak in the win over Duke. This Saturday, Harris is relieved that he will not have to face suspended CB Kendric Burney who intercepted him three times in last year’s game and returned those picks for an ACC record 170 yards. Despite the absence of Burney and other former defensive starters, UNC ranks tied for seventh in the nation in turnover margin per game and has 11 interceptions already this year. Harris (11 TD, 9 INT) has completed just 43% of his attempts in his past three games.

UNC is 8-2 ATS (5-5 SU) in its past 10 games as an underdog. Since 2007, Miami is 8-18 ATS (31%) against ACC opponents, and the Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the past six meetings with Miami, all since 2004. This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick North Carolina on Saturday:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. (39-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under on Saturday:

Play Under - Any team against the total (N CAROLINA) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in weeks 5 through 9. (155-86 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.3%, +60.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Announcement

NCAAFB Best Bets + Trends & Notes 10/21-10/23 !

NCAAFB Best Bets + Trends & Notes 10/21-10/23 !

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