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Hey guys,
I'm not sure if you guys tailed me yesterday on my college plays, but if you didn't read my thread, I suggest you go to the college football thread and see how my betting strategy works. Basically, I do not post any statistics on the game because you can find that on every other post. Instead, I base my picks off a number of things including reverse line movement, percentages, simulations, and a little of my own personal opinion. Though I cap every game, I do not bet on every game. Ratings of 3, 4, or 5 are sure fire plays for me. Ratings of 1 and 2 I do not actually risk money on. Also, if you missed my last recent post, I did a full recap on the games from yesterday. Please check that out. Onto the card. Enjoy!
Chargers vs. St. Louis
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Chargers -9.0
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 34 - Rams 9
I'll be the first to admit, you won't get anywhere in betting sports laying chalk on the road consistently. I tend to always "fade" these large spreads especially especially when the favorite is on the road. Not only do I, but the system I use is actually liking the Chargers enough to move this to a No Sweat Rating of 3. At first, I thought this would be a Rating of 2, which would make it a "risky play". But with the computers backing my initial thinking, I feel confident on dropping 3 units on the Chargers -9 and the Chargers 1H. Here's why. Line movement wise, the line has jumped from the opening spread of 7.5 all the way up to 9. Though this jump in the number isn't too significant, with only a little more than 60 percent backing the Chargers spread, I'm quite curious why it jumped so much. I don't mind going with line movement in some cases, and I think the books know they made a mistake on this line. You can't blame them though. How can you really make the line any bigger though, with how the Chargers (0-3) on the road has played. 0-3 road team giving up 9 on the road? Hmm...taking the Chargers here may seem "square" but to be honest, I think its actually "sharp". The line has moved considerable even though they are a lot of money coming in on the Rams. I expect the Chargers to easily cover this spread, so I recommend taking them on the 1H and for the game.
Chiefs vs. Texans
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texans -4.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Texans 28 -Chiefs 20
With No Sweat Ratings of 2, that means that you should either not play the game, or put a very small wager on the side I am siding with. A rating of 2 means that the computers do not give a well enough representation of the game in order for me to have a solid edge on the game. A rating of 2 though does factor in my personal opinion, which is why I believe taking the Texans at -4.5 is an OK bet. The line opened at -3.5 Texans and has moved to -4.5 even though most wagers are on the Chiefs. With reverse line movement, I always like to be on the opposite side (here with the Texans) even though the number is hurting us. Nonetheless, like I stated yesterday in my college football thread, reverse line movement is not enough to make a play on. Things could go either way in this game. If you need to bet on this game, take the Texans -4.5, but there are far better plays out there.
Ravens vs. Patriots
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Patriots -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
This is probably one of the hardest games on the card. The computers are not spitting out any information on this play. I would personally fade this game at all cost. As an experienced handicapper, I think this game is a complete coin flip. You can argue many factors for both teams, but I don't think any of that really matters. If anything, take the Patriots at -2.5. But I would not touch this game.
Saints vs. Bucs
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Bucs +4.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 44
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 21 - Saints 20
Smell that? I smell money burning from this game. This is the biggest trap of the morning in my opinion. The Saints played horrible last week, so many expect them to bounce back today against the Bucs. The computers agree 100 percent with me on this game and I expect the Bucs to pull an outright upset here at home. The line opened up at -6.5 Saints and has dropped a full 2.5 points to -4 Saints. With over 75 percent of the bets on both the Moneyline and the spread, this game has trap written all over it. Reverse line movement of 2.5, huge public team on the road against a 3-1 Tampa Bay team? Remember what I told you about the general public in my college thread last week. No one on these boards is the general public. You may argue this, but I have many reasons to prove my point. The general public loves the Saints today, the line has dropped, this is a great shot for the Bucs at home. I expect the Bucs not only to cover, but to win the game outright. Take the Bucs +4.5 for the game and the Bucs ML.
Falcons vs. Eagles
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Falcons +2
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 42.5
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 27 - Eagles 24
This is another game I do not recommend touching. The computer spit this at a definite no play, and I can't personally make a call on this game either. With the injuries surrounding Vick and the uncertainty of Kolb, I don't know what to expect in this game. The Falcons have been solid so far this year, so I guess you have to give them the slight edge in this game. Like I said regarding the Patriots game, there are much better lines to be on today.
Lions vs. Giants
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Giants -10
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 45.5
Final Score Prediction: Giants 24 - Lions 14
I actually see this game being a complete wash. My computers give no edge to either team whatsoever. There has been no line movement in this game, and the public is pretty split on it. I actually think this line will push. If I had to make a play on this, I would take the Under. Nonetheless, this is probably the worse game on the board today. Stay away from it. I also don't recommend including the Giants in any teasers jut in case. To be perfectly honest, I don' t recommend anyone betting on teasers in the first place. Straight up bets and ML dogs is the key to success over time in sports handicapping.
Seahawks vs. Bears
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Seahawks +6.5
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 37.5
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 28 - Bears 17
The computers are in love with this game. They like both the Hawks at +6.5 and the Over 37.5. Also, roughly 60 percent of my simulations have the Seahawks outright winning this game, therefore taking the Hawks on the ML is also a solid bet. My betting strategy personally on this game is the following. Hawks (1h) 3 units, Hawks (Game) 3 units, Hawks ML (2 units), and the Over 37.5 (2 units). I'm loading up on the Hawks being up at half, and then we can take a possible hedge at halftime for a huge middle opportunity. The line opened at 6.5 and I expected it to jump. Early percentages pounded the Bears with no line movement at all. Now over the week, the percentages have dipped on the Bears, but the Bears are still getting roughly 70+ percent of the action. Why is the line not jumping to 7 you may be asking? To be honest, some books have dropped the line to 6. I really don't look at .5 drops in line movements usually, but the line movement drop of .5 on a key number like 6 is quite telling. The Hawks are horrible on the road, have to get up early for this game, which are all reasons why the Bears look like a safe play. Take the Hawks in this situation and I will see you at the cash register.
Dolphins vs. Packers
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Dolphins +3
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 44
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 24 - Packers 21
This is another coin flip in my opinion and the computers agree with me. Nothing to bet here. I think their may be slight value in the Over of 44 in this game, but nothing else. I could see this game going either way. If I had to bet on the game, I would take the Dolphins. But really, please skip this game and move further up or down the card.
Browns vs. Steelers
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Browns +14
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 37.5
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 16 - Browns 6
The computers and I both agree that this game will be a low scoring affair. With Big Ben back, I'm sure the general public is expecting a route here. Usually, QBs don't amaze everyone with their first game back. I see Big Ben actually having some pressure in this situation and making some costly turnovers which will keep the Browns in the game. Anyway, enough with my personal opinion, here's some line chatter. The line opened up at -13 and has moved to -14. Some books are now showing the line at -15, which actually scares my computers which dropped this play to a Rating of 3. I thought this line would stay firm at -14, but with the late line increase of +15, this has made this game a little more dangerous. I still think the Browns will cover, with over 80 percent of the bets piling up on the Steelers. Like I've stated above, sometimes it's smart to ride with the percentages, but I really expect a letdown today for the Steelers. Browns will play hard and somehow manage to cover this large spread.
Jets vs. Broncos
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Broncos +3.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 43
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 17 - Jets 14
I'm not sold on Mark Sanchez. I'm not sold on the jets. My computer are also not sold on the Jets. Giving 3.5 on the road is always hard, especially up at mile high stadium. The line opened at -3 and now has moved to -4 in some books. All my books are still showing +3.5, so that is what I'm taking them at. I don't think the +3.5 or +4 will matter in this situation, but obvious it is always smart to grab the better line. Nonetheless, 75 percent of the bets are slamming the Jets. Surprisingly, a lot more bets are on the Jets ML rather than the Broncos ML at home. The Jets are 4-1 and 2-0 on the road. I don't expect this to continue. This game reminds me of the Steelers/Broncos game roughly 4 years ago. Both teams were in similar situations and the Broncos won outright at home. I'm personally taking the Broncos on the 1H, the game, and the ML.
Raiders vs. 49ers
No Sweat Rating: 3 - 49ers -7
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 41.5
Final Score Prediction: 49ers 35 - Raiders 21
I expect a lot of scoring in this game and the computers like both the Over 41.5 as much as they like the 49ers -7. Yes, as you know, the 49ers are 0-5 and are laying a touchdown. Many bettors will try to get "cute" with this game and take the Raiders ML. This will not work. The 49ers opened at -6 and now has jumped to -7. The percentages are pretty much split on this game, possibly favoring the 49ers a little. This is the 49ers season here. If they don't manage to win here, they can call it a year. The Raiders are by far the most disfunctional team in the NFL and they are never safe to bet on away from Oakland. Look for the 49ers to cruise in this game and the over hitting near the end of the 3rd quarter.
Cowboys vs. Vikings
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Vikings -1.5
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 31 - Cowboys 28
Who would have thought that both teams would be 1-3 going into this game? If you did, you would be up a lot of cash. Anyway, I could see this game going either way. Fade a side and take the Over 44.5. Even though the over 44.5 is a very popular pick today, this total should sail over. I expect both offenses to finally start rolling and the over should be a safe play. Nothing else here though.
Indianapolis vs. Redskins
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Colts -3
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 44
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 - Redskins 20
This game has "do not touch" written all over it. The line opened up at -4 Colts and has dropped all the way down to -3. Yet, everyone and their mother is on the Colts (over 80 percent). Reverse line movement is always tricky, but I have a big warning for those who try to get cute with the Skins in the position. The Colts always show up on prime time television and it is always very hard to bet against Manning on Sunday Night. To be honest, please do not bet on this game. Many bettors will be chasing tonight as the week ends, and I just see a dirty game. The most important rule in sports gambling is discipline. Do not bet this game, ESPECIALLY if you are chasing tonight.
I love discussing plays so if you have any questions feel free to ask me. I will be off the boards at kickoff today though so i'm sorry that I can't answer any questions during the game.
I'm not sure if you guys tailed me yesterday on my college plays, but if you didn't read my thread, I suggest you go to the college football thread and see how my betting strategy works. Basically, I do not post any statistics on the game because you can find that on every other post. Instead, I base my picks off a number of things including reverse line movement, percentages, simulations, and a little of my own personal opinion. Though I cap every game, I do not bet on every game. Ratings of 3, 4, or 5 are sure fire plays for me. Ratings of 1 and 2 I do not actually risk money on. Also, if you missed my last recent post, I did a full recap on the games from yesterday. Please check that out. Onto the card. Enjoy!
Chargers vs. St. Louis
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Chargers -9.0
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 34 - Rams 9
I'll be the first to admit, you won't get anywhere in betting sports laying chalk on the road consistently. I tend to always "fade" these large spreads especially especially when the favorite is on the road. Not only do I, but the system I use is actually liking the Chargers enough to move this to a No Sweat Rating of 3. At first, I thought this would be a Rating of 2, which would make it a "risky play". But with the computers backing my initial thinking, I feel confident on dropping 3 units on the Chargers -9 and the Chargers 1H. Here's why. Line movement wise, the line has jumped from the opening spread of 7.5 all the way up to 9. Though this jump in the number isn't too significant, with only a little more than 60 percent backing the Chargers spread, I'm quite curious why it jumped so much. I don't mind going with line movement in some cases, and I think the books know they made a mistake on this line. You can't blame them though. How can you really make the line any bigger though, with how the Chargers (0-3) on the road has played. 0-3 road team giving up 9 on the road? Hmm...taking the Chargers here may seem "square" but to be honest, I think its actually "sharp". The line has moved considerable even though they are a lot of money coming in on the Rams. I expect the Chargers to easily cover this spread, so I recommend taking them on the 1H and for the game.
Chiefs vs. Texans
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texans -4.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Texans 28 -Chiefs 20
With No Sweat Ratings of 2, that means that you should either not play the game, or put a very small wager on the side I am siding with. A rating of 2 means that the computers do not give a well enough representation of the game in order for me to have a solid edge on the game. A rating of 2 though does factor in my personal opinion, which is why I believe taking the Texans at -4.5 is an OK bet. The line opened at -3.5 Texans and has moved to -4.5 even though most wagers are on the Chiefs. With reverse line movement, I always like to be on the opposite side (here with the Texans) even though the number is hurting us. Nonetheless, like I stated yesterday in my college football thread, reverse line movement is not enough to make a play on. Things could go either way in this game. If you need to bet on this game, take the Texans -4.5, but there are far better plays out there.
Ravens vs. Patriots
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Patriots -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
This is probably one of the hardest games on the card. The computers are not spitting out any information on this play. I would personally fade this game at all cost. As an experienced handicapper, I think this game is a complete coin flip. You can argue many factors for both teams, but I don't think any of that really matters. If anything, take the Patriots at -2.5. But I would not touch this game.
Saints vs. Bucs
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Bucs +4.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 44
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 21 - Saints 20
Smell that? I smell money burning from this game. This is the biggest trap of the morning in my opinion. The Saints played horrible last week, so many expect them to bounce back today against the Bucs. The computers agree 100 percent with me on this game and I expect the Bucs to pull an outright upset here at home. The line opened up at -6.5 Saints and has dropped a full 2.5 points to -4 Saints. With over 75 percent of the bets on both the Moneyline and the spread, this game has trap written all over it. Reverse line movement of 2.5, huge public team on the road against a 3-1 Tampa Bay team? Remember what I told you about the general public in my college thread last week. No one on these boards is the general public. You may argue this, but I have many reasons to prove my point. The general public loves the Saints today, the line has dropped, this is a great shot for the Bucs at home. I expect the Bucs not only to cover, but to win the game outright. Take the Bucs +4.5 for the game and the Bucs ML.
Falcons vs. Eagles
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Falcons +2
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 42.5
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 27 - Eagles 24
This is another game I do not recommend touching. The computer spit this at a definite no play, and I can't personally make a call on this game either. With the injuries surrounding Vick and the uncertainty of Kolb, I don't know what to expect in this game. The Falcons have been solid so far this year, so I guess you have to give them the slight edge in this game. Like I said regarding the Patriots game, there are much better lines to be on today.
Lions vs. Giants
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Giants -10
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 45.5
Final Score Prediction: Giants 24 - Lions 14
I actually see this game being a complete wash. My computers give no edge to either team whatsoever. There has been no line movement in this game, and the public is pretty split on it. I actually think this line will push. If I had to make a play on this, I would take the Under. Nonetheless, this is probably the worse game on the board today. Stay away from it. I also don't recommend including the Giants in any teasers jut in case. To be perfectly honest, I don' t recommend anyone betting on teasers in the first place. Straight up bets and ML dogs is the key to success over time in sports handicapping.
Seahawks vs. Bears
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Seahawks +6.5
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 37.5
Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 28 - Bears 17
The computers are in love with this game. They like both the Hawks at +6.5 and the Over 37.5. Also, roughly 60 percent of my simulations have the Seahawks outright winning this game, therefore taking the Hawks on the ML is also a solid bet. My betting strategy personally on this game is the following. Hawks (1h) 3 units, Hawks (Game) 3 units, Hawks ML (2 units), and the Over 37.5 (2 units). I'm loading up on the Hawks being up at half, and then we can take a possible hedge at halftime for a huge middle opportunity. The line opened at 6.5 and I expected it to jump. Early percentages pounded the Bears with no line movement at all. Now over the week, the percentages have dipped on the Bears, but the Bears are still getting roughly 70+ percent of the action. Why is the line not jumping to 7 you may be asking? To be honest, some books have dropped the line to 6. I really don't look at .5 drops in line movements usually, but the line movement drop of .5 on a key number like 6 is quite telling. The Hawks are horrible on the road, have to get up early for this game, which are all reasons why the Bears look like a safe play. Take the Hawks in this situation and I will see you at the cash register.
Dolphins vs. Packers
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Dolphins +3
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 44
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 24 - Packers 21
This is another coin flip in my opinion and the computers agree with me. Nothing to bet here. I think their may be slight value in the Over of 44 in this game, but nothing else. I could see this game going either way. If I had to bet on the game, I would take the Dolphins. But really, please skip this game and move further up or down the card.
Browns vs. Steelers
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Browns +14
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 37.5
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 16 - Browns 6
The computers and I both agree that this game will be a low scoring affair. With Big Ben back, I'm sure the general public is expecting a route here. Usually, QBs don't amaze everyone with their first game back. I see Big Ben actually having some pressure in this situation and making some costly turnovers which will keep the Browns in the game. Anyway, enough with my personal opinion, here's some line chatter. The line opened up at -13 and has moved to -14. Some books are now showing the line at -15, which actually scares my computers which dropped this play to a Rating of 3. I thought this line would stay firm at -14, but with the late line increase of +15, this has made this game a little more dangerous. I still think the Browns will cover, with over 80 percent of the bets piling up on the Steelers. Like I've stated above, sometimes it's smart to ride with the percentages, but I really expect a letdown today for the Steelers. Browns will play hard and somehow manage to cover this large spread.
Jets vs. Broncos
No Sweat Rating: 5 - Broncos +3.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 43
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 17 - Jets 14
I'm not sold on Mark Sanchez. I'm not sold on the jets. My computer are also not sold on the Jets. Giving 3.5 on the road is always hard, especially up at mile high stadium. The line opened at -3 and now has moved to -4 in some books. All my books are still showing +3.5, so that is what I'm taking them at. I don't think the +3.5 or +4 will matter in this situation, but obvious it is always smart to grab the better line. Nonetheless, 75 percent of the bets are slamming the Jets. Surprisingly, a lot more bets are on the Jets ML rather than the Broncos ML at home. The Jets are 4-1 and 2-0 on the road. I don't expect this to continue. This game reminds me of the Steelers/Broncos game roughly 4 years ago. Both teams were in similar situations and the Broncos won outright at home. I'm personally taking the Broncos on the 1H, the game, and the ML.
Raiders vs. 49ers
No Sweat Rating: 3 - 49ers -7
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 41.5
Final Score Prediction: 49ers 35 - Raiders 21
I expect a lot of scoring in this game and the computers like both the Over 41.5 as much as they like the 49ers -7. Yes, as you know, the 49ers are 0-5 and are laying a touchdown. Many bettors will try to get "cute" with this game and take the Raiders ML. This will not work. The 49ers opened at -6 and now has jumped to -7. The percentages are pretty much split on this game, possibly favoring the 49ers a little. This is the 49ers season here. If they don't manage to win here, they can call it a year. The Raiders are by far the most disfunctional team in the NFL and they are never safe to bet on away from Oakland. Look for the 49ers to cruise in this game and the over hitting near the end of the 3rd quarter.
Cowboys vs. Vikings
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Vikings -1.5
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Over 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Vikings 31 - Cowboys 28
Who would have thought that both teams would be 1-3 going into this game? If you did, you would be up a lot of cash. Anyway, I could see this game going either way. Fade a side and take the Over 44.5. Even though the over 44.5 is a very popular pick today, this total should sail over. I expect both offenses to finally start rolling and the over should be a safe play. Nothing else here though.
Indianapolis vs. Redskins
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Colts -3
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 44
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 - Redskins 20
This game has "do not touch" written all over it. The line opened up at -4 Colts and has dropped all the way down to -3. Yet, everyone and their mother is on the Colts (over 80 percent). Reverse line movement is always tricky, but I have a big warning for those who try to get cute with the Skins in the position. The Colts always show up on prime time television and it is always very hard to bet against Manning on Sunday Night. To be honest, please do not bet on this game. Many bettors will be chasing tonight as the week ends, and I just see a dirty game. The most important rule in sports gambling is discipline. Do not bet this game, ESPECIALLY if you are chasing tonight.
I love discussing plays so if you have any questions feel free to ask me. I will be off the boards at kickoff today though so i'm sorry that I can't answer any questions during the game.
NBA is a joke
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