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good luck to all. May have more later. I will also post my underdog math model picks, they are 6-1 on the year and about 56% over the last 5 years (but I made some adjustments on the offseason so maybe it will perform better). Haven't been playing them because of conflicting factors.
3* Philly -2.5 over Atlanta (possible upgrade to 4*)
I keep hearing that Atlanta is the best team in the NFC. This may be the case (even though by the end of the year it will not be) at this time, but it is by default. The stats don't back it up. Atlanta is 17th in YPR and 21st in yards/pass attempt (6.6). On the defensive end, they are 16th versus the run and 20th versus the pass (7.1 yards/pass attempt). Not breaking the top 10 in any of these statistical categories hardly looks like a great team. My math system has Philly -2 so the line is on the money. Although I would rather Vick be at the helm I think that Kolb will still get it done. Atlanta is off 4 consecutive wins (the last 3 very narrowly) and gets the L here.
2* Denver over N.Y. Jets
This line is at +3 (+105) but the public money is on N.Y. so it may go to 3.5 but I suspect it will stay at 3
The Jets are a good team, but they are in a bad situation this week because they are off 4 consecutive sins SU and ATS including a big win Monday night versus the Vikings. Now they have to travel cross country and play in the thin air of Denver. On the other hand, the Broncos are off two road games and these teams typically play well on their first game back. Denver has a good pass attack averaging 8.1 yards/pass attempt (2nd in league) and will be facing a Jets D that allows 1 yards/pass attempt (19th) and 235 yards/game (23rd). Take the Broncos as the home dog.
Math System Plays:
K.C. ( I actually like Houston)
T.B.
Detroit
3* Philly -2.5 over Atlanta (possible upgrade to 4*)
I keep hearing that Atlanta is the best team in the NFC. This may be the case (even though by the end of the year it will not be) at this time, but it is by default. The stats don't back it up. Atlanta is 17th in YPR and 21st in yards/pass attempt (6.6). On the defensive end, they are 16th versus the run and 20th versus the pass (7.1 yards/pass attempt). Not breaking the top 10 in any of these statistical categories hardly looks like a great team. My math system has Philly -2 so the line is on the money. Although I would rather Vick be at the helm I think that Kolb will still get it done. Atlanta is off 4 consecutive wins (the last 3 very narrowly) and gets the L here.
2* Denver over N.Y. Jets
This line is at +3 (+105) but the public money is on N.Y. so it may go to 3.5 but I suspect it will stay at 3
The Jets are a good team, but they are in a bad situation this week because they are off 4 consecutive sins SU and ATS including a big win Monday night versus the Vikings. Now they have to travel cross country and play in the thin air of Denver. On the other hand, the Broncos are off two road games and these teams typically play well on their first game back. Denver has a good pass attack averaging 8.1 yards/pass attempt (2nd in league) and will be facing a Jets D that allows 1 yards/pass attempt (19th) and 235 yards/game (23rd). Take the Broncos as the home dog.
Math System Plays:
K.C. ( I actually like Houston)
T.B.
Detroit
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