NFL Week 6 (10/17 - 10/18) + My Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Chargers and Rams top RBs ready for Sunday

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-3)
at ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -8, Total: 45

Ryan Mathews is fully recovered from his sprained ankle and is expected to be the featured back on Sunday at St. Louis. The rookie has been great in limited carries over the past two weeks, rushing 18 times for 114 yards (6.3 YPC) and a touchdown. The Rams’ top running back, Steven Jackson, also claims to be 100 percent healed from a groin injury. Jackson had a season-high 114 rushing yards at Detroit last week, and will need to have another big day considering top receiver Mark Clayton was placed on I.R. with a torn patellar tendon in his right knee.

******* take:
Mathews faces an average run defense that is allowing 111 YPG, ranking 16th of the 32 NFL teams. He could get some room to run later in the game once the passing attack has been unleashed. Philip Rivers leads an offense gaining an NFL-best 338 YPG through the air this season. He will likely be without his No. 2 receiver Legedu Naanee who is not expected to play because of a hamstring injury. Malcom Floyd (22 rec., 498 yds, 3 TD) and TE Antonio Gates (29 rec., 478 yds, 7 TD) should provide enough firepower for the Chargers to keep rolling. San Diego is outgaining its opponents by an average of 462 to 246 in total yards.

San Diego is 22-7 ATS (76%) in dome games since 1992. This FoxSheets trend shows another reason to pick San Diego.

Play Against - Home teams (ST LOUIS) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%). (39-12 since 1983.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets lean towards the Over on Sunday, based on San Diego’s potent offense.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (30-7 since 1983.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Moreno could return to face Jets

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NEW YORK JETS (4-1)
at DENVER BRONCOS (2-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT, Line: NY Jets -3, Total: 42

Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno, who has missed the past three games with a hamstring injury, will try to play against the Jets on Sunday. Moreno has had a rough second season, with just 111 yards on 39 carries (2.8 YPG). Last year, Moreno gained 947 yards on the ground (3.8 YPC) with seven touchdowns.

******* take:
A healthy Moreno would enable Denver to improve upon the worst rushing offense in the NFL (52 YPG, 2.3 YPC). Moreno’s backups have just been dreadful. Laurence Maroney (29 rush, 56 yds) and Correll Buckhalter (32 rush, 62 yds) are both averaging less than two yards per carry. Considering the Jets have the league’s fourth-stingiest run defense (79 YPG), none of these running backs should have a productive afternoon.

Kyle Orton has had much success throwing the football, as the Broncos rank second in the league in passing offense (333 YPG). Jets CB Darrelle Revis might miss the game due to his bad hamstring. This would allow the NFL’s leading receiver Brandon Lloyd (589 rec. yds) to get open more often than if a healthy Revis was assigned to blanket him all day. Eddie Royal (330 rec. yds) and Jabar Gaffney (327 rec. yds) have also had productive years so far.

The Broncos are 4-1 (SU & ATS) against the Jets since 1992. This FoxSheets trend shows that bettors should not expect the Jets good fortunes in the turnover battle (league-best +11 with 12 takeaways and 1 giveaway) to continue, making Denver the play.

Play Against - Favorites (NY JETS) - with a turnover margin of +2 /game or better on the season.(29-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.4%, +18 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets like the Over on Sunday.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY JETS) - off 1 or more straight overs, with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game. (34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/11/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/10/10 13-13-0 50.00% -650 Detail
10/04/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/10 16-9-0 64.00% +3050 Detail
Totals 30-25-0 54.55% +1250

Sunday, October 17Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -1 500
Philadelphia - Under 42.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +13.5 500
Pittsburgh - Over 37.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -6 500
Chicago - Over 37.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -10 500
NFC East Blow Out
N.Y. Giants - Under 45.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +2.5 500
New England - Under 44.5 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +9 500
St. Louis - Over 44.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +3 500
Green Bay - Under 44.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +4 500
Tampa Bay - Over 44 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Houston -4 500
AFC POD
Houston - Over 44.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:05 PM ET Denver +3.5 500
Denver - Under 43 500

Oakland - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -7 500
San Francisco - Over 41.5 500

Dallas - 4:15 PM ET Minnesota -1 500
Minnesota - Over 44.5 500

Indianapolis - 8:20 PM ET Indianapolis -3 500
Washington - Over 44.5 500

[jt4545]

Thanks star and good luck

[Kaptain]

Like the Bears, Giants, Texans plays......

gl today SD Bum.....get em

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 17Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 8:20 PM ET Indianapolis -3 500 *****
Washington - Over 44.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Jacksonville looks for its third straight win Monday

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TENNESSEE TITANS (3-2)
at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Tennessee -3, Total: 45.5

The Jags are suddenly red-hot, with QB David Garrard returning to his efficient form of 2007 (79% completion rate, 5 TD, 1 INT in past two games). The Titans’ rotation-heavy pass-rush will try to disrupt him. The key will be what the Jags D does against Vince Young, who threw more aggressively downfield last week.

Vince Young has played well recently (4 TD, 0 INT in past three games), but has averaged just 136 passing YPG with 4 TD and 8 INT in six career games against the Jaguars. Chris Johnson, who is coming off a 131-yard game at Dallas, torched the Jaguars with 228 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 30-13 win last year. Considering Jacksonville entered the week with the third-worst defense in the NFL in both yardage (385 YPG) and points (27.4 PPG), Johnson should have a big game, assuming his thigh injury isn’t more serious than what the Titans are letting on.

Garrard has not enjoyed this matchup in the past. He is just 4-9 lifetime versus Tennessee with 144 passing YPG, 11 TD and 11 INT. Maurice Jones-Drew has been successful against the Titans -- 97 total YPG and 5.9 YPC with 7 TD in eight games against Tennessee. He has missed some practicing this week with an ankle injury, but he will be ready to play Monday night.

This FoxSheets trend shows that home underdog Jacksonville is the pick here.

Play Against - Road teams (TENNESSEE) - off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. (231-149 since 1983.) (60.8%, +67.1 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets lean towards the Over based on this coaching trend.

Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher is 32-13 OVER (+17.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of TENNESSEE. The average score was TENNESSEE 24.6, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Titans at Jaguars

The only division in football with every team at .500 or above is the AFC South, as two of those squads meet up in Jacksonville on Monday night. The Titans and Jaguars are each 3-2, while trying to make some noise in a division that has been mainly owned by the Colts since realignment in 2002.

Even though Tennessee is two years removed from winning the division with a 13-3 record, the Titans are still attempting to be a force in the top-heavy AFC. Jeff Fisher's team is coming off a solid road underdog victory at Dallas last week, 34-27, despite getting outgained by 190 yards. The reigning rushing champion did his part in the win as Chris Johnson rushed for 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The Jags made sure there was no letdown after the Week 4 upset of the Colts with last Sunday's 36-26 triumph at Buffalo. Jacksonville erased an early 10-0 deficit with two David Garrard touchdown tosses to Marcedes Lewis. The Jags then broke a 20-20 tie when Garrard found Mike Sims-Walker for a seven-yard touchdown strike in the final minutes of the third quarter to put Jacksonville up for good. The win at Buffalo was only the second in Jacksonville's last eight road games since last October.

Even though Johnson receives plenty of acclaim across the league as the top running back, don't sleep on Jacksonville's rushing offense, which ranks third overall with 146.8 yards/game. The only problem with the Jags' running game is their inability to get into the end zone, scoring just two touchdowns on the ground.

Jack Del Rio's club had a problem covering games at home from 2008 through 2009, owning a 3-13 ATS mark. However, the Jaguars have turned things around this season with a 2-1 ATS ledger at home, including wins over Denver and Indianapolis. Since Del Rio's arrival in 2003, the Jags have compiled an 11-8 ATS record when receiving points at home.

The home team grabbed both meetings last season, starting with Jacksonville blowing out Tennessee, 37-17. The Titans came into that game at 0-3, but the Jags jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead and never looked back. The two key points to come out of that game involved both teams' running backs, as Johnson was held to 87 yards, while Maurice Jones-Drew ran for just 14 carries on eight carries.

Following Tennessee's bye week, the Titans picked up their first win of the season after an 0-6 start by taking care of the Jags in Nashville, 30-13, as three-point favorites. Both tailbacks had dramatically different efforts this time around, as Johnson put up a career-high 228 yards and two scores, while Jones-Drew tallied 177 yards and two touchdowns on only eight carries.

The Titans were 0-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite last season, including the 20-point defeat at Jacksonville as three-point 'chalk.' That record is in stark contrast to the 7-2 ATS mark Fisher's team put up from 2007-08, as the Titans covered five of seven times when laying points on the road during the division title season of 2008.

VI handicapper Bruce Marshall says the Titans have turned into a very unpredictable team through five weeks, "Tennessee has really been blowing hot and cold thus far, although we have seen the last two weeks how to and how not to deal with the Titans. Denver laid out the road map in Week 4, committing its defensive resources to stopping Johnson and making the erratic Vince Young beat it through the air."

As Marshall points out, the Cowboys' defense made things easy for the Titans last week, "Dallas didn't seem to make any special adjustments for Johnson, who ran well and made things easier for Young last week. Although the mechanics of slowing down the Tennessee offense are probably a bit more complicated, the fact is that Young has been very back-and-forth, and the Titans have followed good efforts with poor ones. If that zig-zag pattern continues this week, Tennessee could be in trouble."

Jacksonville has struggled in division games under Del Rio since 2006, owning a 10-15 SU mark, while going 11-14 ATS. Marshall believes that the Jags may be turning the corner, "The Indianapolis win seemed to revive the team and provide some much needed confidence for Garrard. Meanwhile, Del Rio's rebuilt defensive front is providing a bit more pass rush pressure than a year ago, which was really a problem for the Jags in '09."

The Titans opened up as a 2 ½-point favorite, but the number has been bumped to three at most spots. The total has remained steady at 45 for the entire week after opening up at 45 last Sunday night. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- It's pretty amazing to think that the Rams (3-3) own a better record than the Chargers (2-4) through the first six weeks, considering San Diego has played only one team that made the playoffs last season (Arizona). St. Louis continues to cash as a home 'dog, compiling a 3-1 SU/ATS mark when receiving points at the Edward Jones Dome.

-- The Saints bounced back nicely with a 31-6 thrashing of the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium as four-point favorites. Sometimes we think a little bit too much about a line, as New Orleans was the victim of two defensive touchdowns and a fumble recovery for a third score by Arizona last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was bailed out by some horrible decisions in the waning moments by Cincinnati, as the Saints needed a blowout to get back on track.

-- Perhaps one of the bigger momentum shifts for two teams came at Reliant Stadium in Houston as the Texans rallied late to beat the Chiefs, 35-31. Houston failed to cover, but the Texans had been blown out at home twice over the last month against the Giants and Cowboys, so this win was extremely important. On the flip side, Kansas City falls to 3-2, and even though they competed well the last two weeks on the road, the Chiefs threw away several opportunities that could have them at 4-1.

[StarDust Bum]

Will 'Dogs Keep Barking?

Often times, we recall the old "war room" in Los Angeles. Each week during the football season in those days, the handicapping crew would convene to discuss the upcoming college and pro football slates.

Inevitably, several times each season, one of the handicappers would cite an emerging angle or pointspread trend that had recorded a particularly strong, or perhaps not so strong, record in recent weeks. And whenever the handicapper would get a little too confident about his opinion based upon those recent results, Mort Olshan was always quick to pass along a reminder, learned from his decades of work in the industry.

"Remember," Mort would often caution, "these trends aren't etched in granite."

Mort had seen too many systems and trends through the years to get terribly excited about any of them, and realized their fortunes could turn just as quickly as they appeared. He even wrote about the subject in his definitive study of the business, the classic Winning Theories of Sports Handicapping, first published in 1975. "Usually the ‘system’ encompasses a peculiar set of circumstances that materializes for a brief period," Mort wrote. "Then, as with so many unscientific formulas, the law of averages takes over. Lo and behold –no more system. It has been rebuffed by that old axiom: Statistics can be used to support anything–mostly statisticians."

That’s not to say, however, that Mort didn’t acknowledge that pointspread patterns could sometimes endure without much rhyme or reason, and he was always quick to advise us to keep an eye on whatever trends might be developing during the season. And if Mort were still with us today, we’re sure he would be reminding us about all of the above after the first month of the current NFL season, one in which the underdog sides had been dominating the action while recording an eye-opening 46-28 spread mark through the first five weeks of the campaign.

Mort’s words continue to echo, as we are certain he would advise us to respect that dog pattern as long as it continued, but also caution to watch for a quick reversal of that dominant underdog form. Not that we haven’t learned ourselves throughout the decades. Indeed, it was only a year ago at this time that we were talking about the lack of parity in the NFL, and devoted one of our feature stories to what at the time was a widening gap between the haves and have-nots of the league. But that chalk-oriented pattern began to wane after midseason a year ago, when pointspreads began to adjust and the bigger underdogs finally began to provide some value. Until late October a year ago, the big NFL favorites laying 10 points or more were covering games at a 75% clip, but they cooled considerably down the stretch and actually ended up the season slightly less than .500 (28-29).

Perhaps the most interested observers in the recent underdog prowess are the many Las Vegas sports books that have benefited greatly from the favorites stumbling in early 2010 action.

Keep in mind that at this time a year ago, most of the books were posting losses due to the vagaries of the 2009 campaign, as veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Keith Glantz reminded us in a discussion before last week’s games.

"Remember, books don’t always win if the underdogs come in big every week," said the highly-respected Glantz. "It’s how the ‘public’ favorites are doing that often dictates how much the books win and lose.”

"The greatest exposure the books will have is with the popular favorites all doing well at the same time. By popular or public teams, I mean Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Indy, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans. Even San Francisco became a public team early this season. Last year, in some of those early weeks of the season, you combined a lot of those public teams playing against the bad teams, who just weren’t competitive. Teams like the Rams, Lions, Browns, and Raiders. This created a lot of one-way action on the parlay cards, which are the biggest money makers for the sports books. But not last year.

"The books were getting blasted on a lot of huge payouts on the parlay cards a year ago. But it is a completely different story this season, with the public teams mostly struggling. So far, the books are winning big on the parlay cards. Real big."

That the parlay cards are such a profit center for the sports books might come as surprise to some, but their revenue-generating capacity cannot be underestimated. "The normal hold for the books on the parlay cards is around 30%, which is huge," said Glantz, who added that most of the books had done much better than that with their parlay cards in the early portion of this season.

It’s no wonder that some of the sports book managers around Las Vegas have been looking like the cat that ate the canary. Mike Colbert, who manages the plush sports book at the M Hotel and hosts our weekly Friday radio appearance with Brian Blessing on 1100 AM in Las Vegas (which airs between 2-3 PM, if you happen to be in town), has been preoccupied with a number of new products and promotions at his property in recent weeks, but even he acknowledged that most early-season Sundays have been pretty good thus far for the books, including his own. "I’d say we’ve done okay," said Colbert, which is about as far any sports book manager will ever want to go admit publicly, as Glantz reminded us. "When the sports books are doing well, they’re never going to be rubbing it into their audience," says Glantz.

Glantz, much like Mort would surely have done in the old days, offers a few warnings of his own about the early NFL developments featuring the underdogs. "In most years that I recall, the underdogs collectively seem to do better in the later portion of the season," says Glantz. "This year has been totally different. My advice is to be on the lookout for the favorites to rally in the second half of the season. Teams like Dallas, Minnesota, Indy, and New Orleans would figure to start covering numbers soon." And the chalk did rebound slightly last week, posting a 6-5-2 mark entering Monday's Titans-Jaguars clash.

Until then, the dogs could continue barking in the NFL, but keeping on the lookout for a turnaround in that pattern is a good idea. As always, stay tuned.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/17/10 12-12-2 50.00% -600 Detail
10/11/10 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/10/10 13-13-0 50.00% -650 Detail
10/04/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/03/10 16-9-0 64.00% +3050 Detail
Totals 42-37-2 53.16% +650

Monday, October 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 8:30 PM ET Tennessee -3 500
Jacksonville - Over 44.5 500


Good Luck !

[StarDust Bum]

Monday Night Football betting finds Titans at Jaguars

Physical, ground-oriented and defensive-minded. That’s the image most have of the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Don’t be shocked, though, if these two AFC South Division teams put on a good offensive show Monday night (5:30 p.m. PT on ESPN) when they meet in Jacksonville.

The Titans are 2 ½-point NFL spread favorites with an ‘over/under’ of 45.

Tennessee ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring averaging 26.4 points per game heading into Week 6. The 3-2 Titans have posted a combined 101 points in victories against Oakland, the New York Giants and Dallas.

Chris Johnson ran for 100 yards in all three of those victories. Johnson was held to under 100 yards on the ground during Tennessee’s losses to Pittsburgh and Denver when the Titans scored only a combined 31 points.

Johnson ran for 131 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans’ 34-27 victory against the Cowboys last Sunday as 6 ½-point road ‘dogs. The combined 61 points sailed ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total. Johnson entered Week 6 ranked No. 2 in rushing with 485 yards after gaining a league-leading 2,006 last season.

Johnson has rushed for at least 100 yards during his past seven road games. He ran for 228 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars in a 30-13 home win for the Titans last year. It was the most rushing yards the Jaguars ever surrendered in a game.

The Jaguars have their own top-notch runner in Maurice Jones-Drew. He’s off to a slow start with two touchdowns, but Jacksonville has totaled 67 points in beating Indianapolis and Buffalo during the past two weeks.

Jones-Drew has scored seven touchdowns in his last eight games against Tennessee, rushing for 557 yards in those games while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

David Garrard is 33-for-42 for 341 yards and five touchdowns during the last two weeks. Until these past two games, there was speculation in Jacksonville that Garrard could be benched. The Jaguars even picked up castoff Bills quarterback Trent Edwards. Garrard is 22-16 when starting at home for Jacksonville compared to 12-17 on the road.

Disappointing tight end Marcedes Lewis has emerged as a dangerous red zone target for Jacksonville with five touchdown receptions.

The Titans have yielded only one touchdown on the ground, but entered Week 6 rated 27th in pass defense. They have given up 120 points in their last four games.

The 3-2 Jaguars are not fast or particularly athletic in their secondary. They entered the weekend ranked 29th in pass defense.

Tennessee quarterback Vince Young has been up-and-down. He doesn’t have a good history versus the Jaguars with a four-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio and 56.7 passer rating. If Young can prove a viable threat through the air, it would open space for Johnson.

The home team has covered the football betting spread in seven of the team’s last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Titans have covered in five of their last seven games versus Jacksonville.

This is Tennessee’s first AFC South matchup of the season. The Titans won’t play their next division game until Nov. 28. They conclude the regular season with five division matchups in the last six weeks.

The Titans have won 11 straight versus NFC opponents, but have failed to cover during five of their last six games against AFC competition. They also are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they played following a victory.

Jacksonville is expecting a rare home sellout. The Jaguars are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home contests.

The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Jacksonville’s last six games, while the ‘under’ has turned a profit in four of the Titans’ last five road matchups.

The weather forecast is for a clear night with temperatures in the 60s.

[Dat Boi E]

good luck, bum!