Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:23 PM

Colt McCoy to start vs. Roethlisberger's Steelers

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CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-4)
at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Pittsburgh -14, Total: 37.5

Ben Roethlisberger returns from suspension to make his 2010 debut against a team he has dominated. The Steelers are 10-1 against the Browns with Big Ben starting under center, though that one loss was their last meeting, in Cleveland last December. Roethlisberger hasn’t always lit up the Browns though, throwing for an average of 221 YPG with 14 TD and 8 INT in his 11 games against Cleveland.

The Browns will also have a new face under center. Rookie Colt McCoy has been told he will be the starter on Sunday since both Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace are suffering from high ankle sprains. Speaking of injuries, Cleveland’s best offensive player, RB Peyton Hillis, is dealing with a quad injury that may keep him out of action Sunday.

******* take:
Roethlisberger couldn’t ask for a better matchup in his season opener, with his team coming off a bye, playing at home against a Cleveland team starting a rookie QB. Even if Big Ben doesn’t play well, the Browns will have a very difficult time moving the football against the Steelers’ top-ranked scoring defense allowing just 12.5 PPG. If Hillis (350 rush yds, 4.6 YPC) can’t play, Jerome Harrison (2.9 YPC) will be asked to move the football against the best run defense in the league (62 rush YPG).

Despite Pittsburgh’s recent ownership of Cleveland, the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their past five games in the series. But this FoxSheets statistic shows that Pittsburgh knows how to recover from its Week 4 defeat to Baltimore.

PITTSBURGH is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.7, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend shows that this game will not be an offensive showcase, making the Under the play.

CLEVELAND is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.The average score was CLEVELAND 8.1, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:29 PM

NFL Betting: Packers hurting as Dolphins arrive

The Green Bay Packers may have lost more than just a game this past Sunday. The 3-2 Packers may have lost their status as a serious Super Bowl contender.

The Packers not only fell 16-13 in overtime to Washington as three-point road favorites, but suffered multiple injuries.

Currently there is no NFL betting line on the Miami-Green Bay Sunday matchup (10 a.m. PT) because of the uncertain status of Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a concussion during the overtime.

If Rodgers can’t go, third-year backup Matt Flynn would be in line to make his first career NFL start. Rodgers has nine touchdown throws, two behind co-leaders Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.

Thanks to Rodgers and his predecessor, Brett Favre, the Packers have had their starting quarterback in the lineup for every game during the past 17 seasons.

It’s not just Rodgers that was injured. Star tight end Jermichael Finley is out three-to-six weeks after suffering a knee injury. Backup tight end Donald Lee also is out for a couple of weeks after being felled with a chest injury leaving third-string rookie Andrew Quarless as the starter.

Defensively, league pass-rushing leader Clay Matthews is ‘questionable’ with a hamstring injury and nose guard Ryan Pickett could be out, too, after injuring his ankle. Linebacker Nick Barnett already is out with a wrist injury and Derrick Martin, a safety and excellent special teams player, won’t play either due to a knee injury.

The Packers already are without their top running back, Ryan Grant.

Since crushing Buffalo, 34-7, as 12 ½-point home favorites in Week 2, the Packers have failed to cover the spread in their last three games losing to Chicago as three-point road favorites, edging the Lions by two as 14 ½-point home favorites and falling to Washington.

Miami was idle last week after being embarrassed, 41-14, as one-point home favorites in its previous game by New England. It was the Dolphins’ second consecutive home loss to an AFC East rival following road victories in their first two games. Dolphins special teams coach John Bonamego was fired following the defeat to New England.

Special teams have been terrible for both teams. Miami punter Brandon Fields has had four punts blocked counting preseason. The Dolphins also rank last in kickoff coverage.

The Dolphins’ run defense has slipped. After holding the Bills to 50 yards rushing opening week, the Dolphins are giving up an average of 140.3 yards on the ground in their last three games. Chad Henne has been picked off four times in the past two games.

Brandon Marshall has upgraded Miami’s receiving corps, but the Dolphins are likely to attack Green Bay with a large dose of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

Brown is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, while Williams is averaging 4.1 yards. The Dolphins ranked fourth in rushing last year, but are 15th this season behind a rebuilt offensive line.

The Dolphins’ Wildcat formation offense is down averaging 1.7 in 16 rushes after averaging 6.1 yards per carry two years ago and 5.2 yards last season. The Dolphins were the first team to unleash the Wildcat three years ago with Brown excelling at taking the snap directly from center.

This is Miami’s first road game in four weeks. The Dolphins are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 away contests under Tony Sparano, including covering six of the past seven.

Green Bay is 6-3-1 ATS at home since the start of last season. The Packers, however, have a huge look-ahead matchup the following week when they host NFL North rival Minnesota.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 11 of Miami’s last 15 road games.

The teams last played each other in 2006 with the Packers winning 34-24 at Miami.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:31 PM

Football Betting: All about NFL spreads

One thing we know about trying to pick a winner in an NFL matchup is that selecting against the spread is extremely difficult. We never cease to be amazed at how accurate this value can be and how often the spread exceeds or falls short of the final scoring difference by a mere point.

On the other side of the coin, look at what just transpired in Week 5 of the NFL season. There were six games where the line favored one team over the other by a spread greater than six (normally indicating a strong team against a weak opponent). Forget about the spread; four of these games were won straight up by the underdogs.

So let’s have a look at spreads and try to understand what they’re all about.

To begin, the spread itself is usually a good indicator of which team is likely to win a match-up. It’s a reflection of performance statistics as well as discretionary issues, such as injuries or a team's win/loss momentum. But, most of all, it’s a handicapper's view of which team is most likely to win and by how much for the purpose of placing a bet on one team or the other.

It’s important to understand that the goal of sports books is to arrive at a spread that will attract as many bettors on one side of the spread as the other. It’s a sobering thought to know that whichever team you choose there is another football fan out there who thinks you’re wrong. You have to gain an edge on your adversary by being better informed or by using a logic-based tool to help make your selection.

Opening spreads (set early in game week) are usually available in local newspapers. They are sometimes determined by highly frequented sports books (such as Bodog) that distribute directly to the media. Newspapers sometimes get their published spreads from syndicated news services.

All the sports books oferring NFL betting lines (of which there are hundreds in the US) come up with the spreads for their site (normally within striking distance of published ones) and sometimes adjust them as game day approaches. They do this because, as noted above, they are constantly striving to balance their books, ie. have an equal amount of money wagered on each team surrounding the spread. The other way in which they control their risk is by adjusting the line – by offering a more favorable line (say 105 versus the normal 110), they hope to attract more betting action on the team that has so far attracted fewer wagers than the other team.

Some logic-based solutions use four “spread” values in doing their various calculations on their way to determining a winning team.

The opening (default) spread

This spread is usually picked up early in the week from reputable and reliable nationally syndicated media. It is sometimes adjusted to the nearest half-point by football software vendors in order to avoid ties. Also, logic-based software may adjust to half-points to accommodate the complex and extensive calculations executed by their programs.

The scoring spread

This spread is calculated based on the scoring differential (over recent history) of the two teams in each matchup. It is often used as a check in logic-based software to help determine an eventual game winner. In essence, it is looking for ‘windows’ of opportunity where the default spread appears to be out of line with how the two teams have actually scored over time.

The stats spread

Similar to the scoring spread, the stats spread is based on how teams compare to each other based on a wide spectrum of the most relevant team statistics. Here again, logic-based software looks for glaring differences between what Sportsbooks set as the spread and what is statistically justified.

The actual spread

This is the final spread a bettor must use in determining whether or not to place a wager on his selected winning team (with a spread he deems to be acceptable). Along with the line, there could well be last minute changes in sports books’ values which could be the difference between placing a wager or passing on a wager opportunity.

Because of the number of US sports books and their competitive nature, the NFL bettor has a good opportunity to obtain the spread and line he feels will give him both: 1) the best chance of winning, and; 2) of maximizing his winnings.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:32 PM

Early NFL betting trends lean to the 'over'

The New England Patriots are the only team in the NFL to have gone ‘over’ in all of their games this season. Maybe that will change now that the Patriots no longer have Randy Moss.

One thing that hasn’t changed is NFL betting ‘overs’ being the way to go.

There have been more ‘overs’ than ‘unders’ in each of the last four weeks. There were eight ‘overs’ and five ‘unders’ this past Sunday. That pushes the overall season totals mark to 38-35-2 in favor of ‘over.’

Top NFL Betting Odds at Easy Street Sports.

The tally is close only because the ‘under’ count in Week 1 was 10-4-2. That obviously was an aberration based on how the past four weeks have gone. Usually, though, the final mark is a 50-50 split between ‘overs’ and ‘unders.’

There’s probably going to be one less ‘under’ this week because the Carolina Panthers have a bye. The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the Panthers’ five games.

The Panthers are averaging 10.4 points per game. This isn’t shocking considering the Panthers play a rookie quarterback and two first-year starting wide receivers with Steve Smith out.

Jimmy Clausen is going through growing pains, completing just 47.3 percent of his passes with a quarterback rating of 52.2 and a one-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Panthers have gone ‘under’ in 15 of their last 22 contests.

Minnesota went into its Monday night game versus the Jets having gone ‘under’ in its first three games.

Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Kansas City were a combined 4-12 ‘under’ in its games. The Bears-Panthers matchup this past Sunday had the lowest total of the season at 33. The two teams combined to score only 29 points.

Top NFL Betting Odds at Easy Street Sports.

Despite going ‘under’ in four of its five games, Green Bay has historically been an ‘over’ club especially versus fellow NFC teams. The ‘over’ is 24-12-1 during the Packers’ last 37 games against NFC opponents.

These ‘over’ numbers may continue for the Packers considering all of their injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

Dallas is another surprising ‘under’ club despite its offensive star power. The ‘under’ has cashed in 11 of the Cowboys’ past 15 games.

The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in San Francisco’s last nine games, which isn’t surprising considering the struggles of 49ers quarterback Alex Smith and the conservative approach of coach Mike Singletary.

Tampa Bay has had a strong ‘under’ tendency behind second-year head coach Raheem Morris. The ‘under’ has cashed in nine of the Buccaneers’ past 11 games.

Buffalo has been another ‘under’ squad going below the total in 11 of its last 17 matchups.

The NFC East has been a strong ‘over’ division despite Dallas’ ‘under’ trend. The ‘over’ has cashed in 10 of Washington’s last 15 games and in seven of New York’s past 10 games.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 22 of Philadelphia’s last 29 games when the Eagles have been an underdog, including this past Sunday night.

Denver and San Diego have been two of the top ‘over’ teams in the AFC.

The ‘over’ has cashed in nine of Denver’s last 10 games as Kyle Orton has thrown for 300 or more yards four consecutive weeks.

Sparked by quarterback Philip Rivers, the Chargers have gone above the total in 15 of their last 22 matchups.

The Chargers have been a real strong ‘over’ team on the road posting a 23-10-3 ‘over’ mark. The ‘over’ also has cashed in eight of the past 10 instances when San Diego was favored.

Houston went ‘under’ the total in its loss this past Sunday to the Giants. The week before the Texans had won and covered on the road against Oakland. The Texans have now gone ‘under’ 12 of the last 16 times after covering the spread the previous week.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:34 PM

Report: Bears may start QB Cutler

CHICAGO (AP) - The NFL Network is reporting that Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is scheduled to start against Seattle on Sunday, two weeks after suffering a concussion.

The Bears refused to confirm Tuesday's report by the NFL Network, which cited a league source it did not identify.

Cutler was injured during a loss to the New York Giants.

Coach Lovie Smith said Monday he was ``hopeful'' that Cutler would be able to play. Bears spokesman Scott Hagel said the quarterback situation will be discussed Wednesday.

The Bears beat Carolina last weekend, but backup Todd Collins threw four interceptions before getting benched for Caleb Hanie

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:35 PM

'Dogs bury bettors, again

Sunday was the best day of the NFL season for many of the Las Vegas sportsbooks, but it wasn’t even the best day of the holiday weekend for some which happened the day before on Saturday. That’s right, the rich get richer and the poorer get poorer for the fifth straight week. Not much has changed from the day that Christopher Columbus himself supposedly discovered America.
Between the sportsbooks beating every major decision in Saturday’s college action and a slew of outright underdog winners in the NFL, the two days came close to being one of the best combined weekend wins ever for Las Vegas sportsbooks. The figures varied somewhat based on being a strip or locals property with the major differences being the extraordinary handle and win the local books get with parlay cards.

A good weekend of normal parlay card hold -- pre-2010 NFL season -- would be considered holding 30%. After Sunday‘s games all washed, most books were holding over 70% of card handle.

Saturday’s most weighted public college teams like Alabama, Florida, Stanford, Oregon and Arizona all failed to win or cover setting the stage up for Sunday’s NFL action. Most of the sportsbooks anticipated Week 5 being the bettors turn and braced for the inevitable cycle of fairness, but it didn’t happen. The underdog trend continued and actually grew stronger with the dogs going 9-4 against the spread.

The Sportsbook Directors aren’t complaining, but they are concerned about how the regular Joe bettors can keep coming back firing at the same pace after getting beat once again. This week’s handle was spurred by all the three-day weekend visitors, but what about next week when the dust settles and it’s just the regular crowd again. The five straight weeks of bettors losing in the NFL is a streak to start the year like never before.

This season truly has been amazing and has thrown a wrench into just about everyone’s handicapping tendencies. I suggested last week to stay the course and that things should all cycle around again, but I’m less confident now and I’m now saying that it may be time go outside the box. It’s apparent that anything can happen and that all teams are capable of winning anywhere at anytime.

For instance, why even take points anymore when you can just take the money line and cash in. That’s what happened Sunday when nine of the underdogs won outright -- no points needed -- with only four favorites winning.

During the early games, things didn’t seem so out of line just because the two largest spreads got there and the underdogs that won weren’t that big of a surprise. The Ravens and Colts were each 7-point favorites and covered while the Bengals lost as 6 ½-point home favorites to the Buccaneers. It was what happened in the late games that threw the entire week for a loop when all three large underdogs won straight up and ultimately killed the bettor’s chances.

The Saints, Chargers and Cowboys weren’t just ordinary favorites, either, they each had strong 7-point spreads. In all three games it came down to the final minute to decide the winner, but covering the spread was never really in doubt for each of their opponents. The major question was whether the dogs could pull off the upsets, and they did.

The Cardinals’ 30-20 win over the Saints might have been the most improbable of the day just because of rookie Max Hall starting the game against the Super Bowl champs. Even worse for Saints fans -- that puts their season in perspective -- is that the Cardinals didn’t have a rushing or passing touchdown for the game, yet managed to put up 30 points. The Saints were held under 25 points for the fifth time this year, one more than they had the entire 2009 season.

The Chargers and Cowboys each passed for over 400 yards, but made key turnovers and mistakes that they were never able to recover from. The Raiders blocked two punts and forced two San Diego turnovers inside the red zone, and that was only in the first quarter, but it set the tempo for the rest of the game.

Probably the Cowboys’ biggest mistake -- one that won’t show up in the box score -- is that Wade Phillips is still the head coach. Twelve ill-timed penalties for 133 yards kept the Titans in position all game long to keep the Cowboys defense off balance, and it‘s all a reflection of their coach and his lackadaisical approach. The best thing Jerry Jones could do is get a coach who screams loud at players, levies fines and suspensions to get that extra 15% missing from their individual games.

Cowboy fans must have a hard time watching Phillips show no emotion when his players do something dumb. At one point you could actually read Phillips lips as he was talking into the head set where he said, “What just happened” after another penalty.

The biggest public games of the day were the Falcons, who covered, the Packers, Saints and Chargers. That would have been a rough four-team parlay for the sports books, but they beat them down with only Falcons getting there.

Some of the Sharp plays of the day went the books way as well. The Ravens covered, but the Bills and Panthers each lost. All three of those games saw significant action on game day and rose by a point-and-a-half each. The three plays all made sense on paper where the spread was maybe deflated a little to catch up to the crazy adjusted ratings of today’s NFL parity.

The Panthers went to 0-5 on the season joining the Bills and 49ers as the only winless teams after the Lions smashed the Rams to get out of that group. A Panthers bettor must be shaking his head wondering how it’s possible to lose a game when the starting quarterback throws four interceptions as back-up Todd Collins did for the Bears.

Let’s hope it gets easier this week where we have one double-digit favorite and only two others that are a touchdown favorite or above. You’ve got San Diego on the road again where they are now 0-3, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger making his season debut against the Browns and the Packers hosting Miami with QB Aaron Rodgers on concussion status.

The game that stands out the most is Denver getting over three points at home against the N.Y. Jets, who will be playing on a short week (MNF). After watching Kyle Orton move the ball effectively against the Ravens top ranked pass defense in Baltimore, I am now a believer that his offensive game can’t be stopped by anyone. I’d look for a high scoring game that the Broncos should hang around in and then maybe get some Mile High Magic near the end.

Good Luck and make Week 6 yours to own!

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:36 PM

Tech Trends - Week 6

SAN DIEGO at ST. LOUIS... Norv "over" last 4 TY and 18-8 last 26 since late ‘08. Bolts 0-3 SU and vs. line away in 2010. Tech edge-Rams and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON ... Chiefs 10-5 vs. line last 14 as road dog dating back to Herm Edwards’ regime in mid ‘08. Kubiak "over" 6-1 last 7 since late ’09. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND... Rematch from playoffs last January when Ravens got physical and won 33-14! John Harbaugh 10-5-1 vs. line as road dog with Ravens. Ravens also "under" first 3 away TY and "under" 11-5 last 16 as visitor. Belichick, however, "over" first 4 TY and 6 straight since late ‘09. Tech edge-Ravens, based on team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY... Saints 0-4-1 vs. line TY and just 4-13-1 last 18 on board since mid ‘09. Bucs, however, just 2-8 vs. line at home for Raheem Morris. TB "under" 12-8 since LY, and last three "under" in series. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA... Falcs 14-7 vs. line since LY (3-2 in 2010). If Andy Reid a dog note 1-5 mark in role since LY (0-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Falcons, based on team trends.

DETROIT at NY GIANTS... Giants 1-5 vs. line last 6 as home chalk (1-1 in new Meadowlands, however). G-Men also "over" 16-5 since LY (3-1 TY). Lions ahve covered 4 of first 5 this season. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on recent Giants trends.

SEATTLE at CHICAGO... Seahawks 0-2 vs. line away TY for Pete Carroll, 1-10 vs. number last 11 on road. Bears now "under" 8-3 last 11 at Solider Field. Tech edge-Bears and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

MIAMI at GREEN BAY... Interestingly, road team is 4-0 vs. line in Miami games TY (Sparano 2-0 vs. number away). Sparano 13-4 vs. points last 17 on road. Sparano also "under" 8-3 last 11 on road. Pack no covers last 3 in 2010. Tech edge-Dolphins and "under," based on Sparano trends.

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH... Big Ben returns. Brownies, however, covered both meetings LY and 4 of last 5 in series. Mangini 6-4 as road dog since LY. Tomlin only 3-6 vs. line as Heinz Field chalk since LY. Steel now "under" 6-4 last 10 at home after extended period of home "overs" previously. Tech edge-slight to Browns, based on team trends

NY JETS AT DENVER... Jets haven’t played at Denver since 2005, when losing 27-0. Rex Ryan, however, 9-4 vs. line away since LY (4-1 as road chalk). Jets also "over" 5-1 last 6 away. Broncos 2-5 vs. line last 7 at Invesco Field at Mile High. Tech edge-slight to Jets and "over," based on recent Rex trends.

OAKLAND at SAN FRANCISCO... Raiders "over" 6-3 last 9 away. Despite slow start this season, Singletary still 8-3-2 vs. line last 12 at Candlestick. Tech edge-slight to 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

DALLAS at MINNESOTA... Cowboys look to avenge LY’s 34-3 playoff defeat when Romo was bounced around the Metrodome surface. Wade Phillips now "under" 10-4 last 14 on road. Vikes "under" first 3 TY prior to "over" vs. Jets last Monday. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at WASHINGTON... Colts 1-2 vs. line as road chalk TY after 6-2 mark in role a year ago. Indy also "over" 7-2 last 9 reg.-season games. Shan 2-1 vs. line at home TY but his Broncos and Skin teams just 14-24 vs. spread last 38 as host. Tech edge-Colts and slight to "over," based on team and Shan and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE (Monday, October 18)... Titans have covered 5 of last 7 in series. Del Rio 3-2 SU and vs. line TY but only 12-25 vs. number since ‘08 and 5-14 vs. spread as host that span (though 2-1 TY). Tech edge-Titans, based on series and team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-12-2010, 11:38 PM

Your Injury report for this weekends slates of games can be found here.....

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/injuries/

**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2010, 06:21 PM

Cutler likely to return Sunday vs. Seattle

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-2)
at CHICAGO BEARS (4-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

Jay Cutler, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, is expected to return to action Sunday when Chicago hosts the Seahawks. This is great news for the Bears considering last week’s starter Todd Collins threw four interceptions in Chicago’s 23-6 win at Carolina.

******* take:
Cutler had never missed an NFL game due to injury before last week. Cutler had a terrific game in Seattle last year, completing 21-of-27 passes for 247 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in leading his team to a 25-19 win. He also made his NFL debut in 2006 against Seattle, going 10-for-21 for 143 yards, two TD and two INT.

Despite playing behind a woeful offensive line that has allowed Cutler to be sacked 17 times in four games, he is still throwing the football well. Cutler has completed 67 percent of his passes for 912 yards, six TD and three INT. In addition the necessity for improved pass protection, Chicago’s O-Line really needs to step up its run blocking against a great run-stop defense. The Bears are 23rd in the NFL in rushing offense (99 YPG) this season, and Seattle ranks second behind Pittsburgh with a paltry 73 rushing YPG allowed this year.

Seattle continues to be one of the worst road teams in the league, posting a 1-9 road record (both SU & ATS) in the past two seasons. This year, the Seahawks have been outgained by an average of nearly 100 yards per game, ranking 29th in rushing offense (80 YPG). Seattle has turned the ball over eight times in the past three games.

These teams have met four times since 2006, with the Bears winning three of those games, including a 27-24 playoff win following the 2006 season. The past three games have been very close, decided by seven points or less. This FoxSheets trend gives the edge to Chicago.

Play Against - Road teams (SEATTLE) - after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game. (30-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2010, 05:50 PM

AFC winning 60 percent ATS vs. NFC this year

A quick glance at the overall standings in each conference shows that the AFC boasts more one-loss teams (5) than the NFC (3), while at the same time having just two teams with fewer than two wins compared to five from the NFC. This suggested to me that the AFC must have the upper hand in head-to-head matchups with the NFC, since it does not appear that its top teams have been feeding off of the bottom dwellers. That is indeed the case.
There have been 22 AFC vs. NFC matchups, which is just over one-third of the total number of such games (64) that will be contested over the course of the season. The AFC is 13-9 straight up (59%) and 12-8 ATS (60%) vs. NFC teams.

AFC teams have fared even better as underdogs in these games, posting a record of 6-3 ATS (67%) and 5-5 SU. AFC road underdogs vs. the NFC are an even greater play at 4-1 ATS (80%) and 3-3 SU. AFC road favorites are 2-1 ATS (3-1 SU) vs. the NFC, making the AFC 6-2 ATS (75%) and 6-4 SU in ALL road games vs. the NFC. Lo and behold, there are four AFC vs. NFC matchups in week six, and ALL of them are AFC road games, including two in which the AFC team will likely be road ‘dogs.

Here are the matchups, along with some additional supporting data from the FoxSheets:

Miami (NL) at Green Bay
• Play On - Any team (Miami) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival against opponent off a road loss. (25-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 2*).

Oakland (+6.5) at San Francisco
• Play Against - Home favorites (San Francisco) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (36-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Indianapolis (-3) at Washington
• Play Against - Any team (Washington) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. (125-70 since 1983.) (64.1%, +48 units. Rating = 2*).

San Diego (-8.5) at St. Louis
• Play Against - Home teams (St. Louis) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%). (39-12 since 1983.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).

Based on what we’ve seen so far this season in AFC-NFC matchups, Miami and Oakland would be the strongest plays as AFC road underdogs.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-15-2010, 12:22 AM

Pierre Thomas not likely to play at TB

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-2)
at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: New Orleans -4.5, Total: 43.5

Pierre Thomas is likely to miss his third straight game with an ankle injury as New Orleans visits 3-1 Tampa Bay on Sunday. Saints head coach Sean Payton said Thomas is still dealing with “soreness and swelling” in his high ankle sprain. This injury does not bode well for team that ranks second-to-last in rushing offense (75.6 rush YPG), but the Bucs’ run defense is third-worst in the NFL at stopping the run (143 rush YPG).

******* take:
The Saints have actually rushed the football BETTER since Thomas has been out of the lineup. New Orleans averaged just 57 rush YPG in Thomas’ three games, but increased that to 103 rush YPG with Thomas hurt. Rookie Chris Ivory and veteran Ladell Betts have combined for 197 rushing yards in the past two weeks. But the success of the Saints comes down to Drew Brees not turning the ball over. In their three wins, Brees has 0 INT. In the two losses, Brees has 5 INT. Considering Tampa has forced 12 turnovers (9 INT, 3 fumbles) in four games, Brees could have another turnover-prone afternoon. History is on the side of Brees, considering his gaudy career numbers against Tampa Bay: 68% completion rate, 248 passing YPG, 18 TD and 7 INT in nine games.

This Bucs offense doesn’t have anywhere close to the talent of New Orleans, but they have been nearly as good as the Saints this season scoring 18.5 PPG (Saints: 19.8 PPG). Bucs QB Josh Freeman was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week after going 20-for-33 for 280 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the win against Cincinnati. Rookie WR Mike Williams has improved his receiving yards in each of his four games (30, 54, 55 and 99).

The Saints have lost their past four games ATS, but are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games at Tampa Bay. Also, the road team is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 series meetings. This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 35.1, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under.

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG). (44-16 since 1983.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-15-2010, 12:25 AM

NFL Betting Odds: Jets fly into Denver

The pass-happy Denver Broncos welcome LaDainian Tomlinson for his ninth trip to the Mile High City. This time, though, he is bringing the New York Jets with him.

In a 1:05 p.m. PT start on CBS, Denver (2-3) meets yet another team that has tremendous offensive balance. Last Sunday, the Broncos were stripped down to their underwear by a Ravens offense that ran for 233 yards and added another 182 through the air.

The AFC East-leading Jets (4-1) top the NFL in rushing yards and turnover margin, largely thanks to a passing game that has yet to throw an interception.

After getting schooled by the Ravens last week and Jacksonville in their opener, teams that can mix things up on offense have posed a problem for Denver. One thing that hasn't been a problem for the Broncos is the passing game.

Kyle Orton has thrown for 300 yards in four straight games, Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd is averaging 19.6 yards per catch, and the Broncos are second in the league in passing with 333.0 yards per game.

Despite all the hullabaloo over the Jets' defense, throwing on New York hasn't been much of a problem. Teams are completing only 51.1% of their passes against the Jets (a league low) but Rex Ryan's boys are still 25th in passing yards allowed.

Two teams with such distinct characteristics usually leads to interesting point spreads and this game is no different. Easy Street Sports has the Jets as road chalk, laying three points. The Jets have covered their last four road games as favorites and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.

The 'total' at Easy Street is set at 41½ and considering Denver's offense under head coach Josh McDaniels, it is no surprise to find that Broncos games have gone 'over' in nine of their last 10.

Before making any plays, cappers are advised to check the health status of both Darrelle Revis and Knowshon Moreno. They are each listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's kickoff.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-16-2010, 12:46 AM

Aaron Rodgers could start against Miami

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MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-2)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: OFF, Total: TBD

QB Aaron Rodgers practiced for the second straight day on Friday and could be ready for Sunday’s game against Miami. Rodgers suffered a concussion last week and his status remains uncertain for this weekend. The prognosis for NFL sack leader Clay Matthews is more bleak because of his hamstring injury. Two certainties are that LB Nick Barnett and TE Jermichael Finley are out. Barnett was placed on I.R. with a wrist injury and Finley will miss 8-10 weeks after having knee surgery for a torn lateral meniscus.

******* take:
Rodgers hasn’t shown any post-concussion symptoms, but Green Bay still might play it safe with their franchise QB and sit him this week. Rodgers has been uncharacteristically turnover-prone this year, throwing six interceptions already. Last season he only tossed seven picks in 541 attempts, while racking up 30 touchdowns. If Rodgers doesn’t play, Matt Flynn will start under center. Flynn is just 9-for-17 for 64 yards and one interception in his brief career in mop-up duty. The third-year pro from LSU was a 7th-round pick in 2008, so he’s not expected to throw for 300 yards. Especially not against Miami’s pass defense that ranks 4th in the NFL with 182 YPG allowed.

Finley joins RB Ryan Grant on the sidelines, making a powerful offense a lot less mighty. Finley leads the Packers with 301 receiving yards and 14.3 YPC this year. The pass rush also takes a hit without Matthews who already has 8.5 sacks this year.

These teams have only met once in the past eight seasons, a 34-24 Green Bay win at Miami. Despite no line set for the game yet, there are still two FoxSheets trends that make Miami the pick.

Play Against - Any team (GREEN BAY) - with a poor rushing defense - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. (120-68 since 1983.) (63.8%, +45.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Any team (MIAMI) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival against opponent off a road loss. (25-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-16-2010, 12:47 AM

Calvin Johnson uncertain to play Sunday at NYG

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DETROIT LIONS (1-4)
at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -10, Total: 44.5

As the Lions try to end their 23-game road losing streak, they may have to do so without their best player, WR Calvin Johnson, who is battling a shoulder injury. Johnson practiced on Friday, but head coach Jim Schwartz will wait until Sunday to make a decision on whether he will play or not.

******* take:
Johnson leads the team with 48 targets, 291 receiving yards and four touchdowns despite frequently drawing double-coverage from opposing defenses. If the Lions have any chance of hanging in with the Giants, they will have to improve their running game. Despite winning 44-6 last week against St. Louis, Detroit was out-gained 128 to 89 on the ground. The Lions rank 27th in rushing offense (82 YPG) and are averaging just 3.6 YPC as a team. Shaun Hill will get at least one more start as Matthew Stafford recovers from his shoulder injury. Hill has moved the offense pretty effectively in his four starts, completing 63 percent of his passes throwing for an average of 283 YPG. But yards won’t come easy under pressure of the Giants pass rush that ranks third in the NFL with 19 sacks.

It’s been well document that Detroit hasn’t won on the road since October 2007, but the Lions have usually kept games close this year, going 4-1 ATS. This FoxSheets coaching trend shows that they may not stay within 10 points of New York.

Tom Coughlin is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better as the coach of NY GIANTS. The average score was NY GIANTS 24.5, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets side with the Under on Sunday, based on one trend that fits both teams.

Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT, NY GIANTS) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9. (43-14 since 1983.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*).

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